Archives for March 2017

After it broke last month on Hockey Night In Canada that Alexander Radulov was looking for a deal up to six-years long, many fans rolled their eyes. Sure, Radulov has had an outstanding season for the Montreal Canadiens in his return from the KHL, but it is never a good idea to give term of that length to a player on the wrong side of 30. Radulov will turn 31 in July, and will likely command upwards of $6MM per season on the open market this summer. It seemed like a bad idea, but many others wanted the team to ignore their hesitation and pay up, hoping that the current incarnation of the Canadiens could compete for a Stanley Cup over the next few years and make it worth it.

Then, when Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet relayed that the six years might actually be the low end of Radulov’s ask, people started to laugh. Eight years? Surely Marc Bergevin wouldn’t give him something like that, not at his age. Today there was a report out of TSN that Radulov’s agent has indeed put forth an eight-year demand to the Montreal front office. While clearly that still just a starting point, and as Friedman puts it “common negotiation strategy is not to undercut yourself, so the first ask is always big,” that does seem like an absurd starting point for a player who would turn 39 a few days after they stop paying him. 

So even if the eight-year ask is a starting point that Radulov is willing to come down from, let’s look at the six year bottom end as the eventual deal he’ll receive. The Canadiens currently have only two players under contract for more than the next four seasons, Andrew Shaw—who will be paid $3.9MM until 2022—and Shea Weber. Weber’s deal, signed under the old CBA, will see him cause a cap-hit of just over $7.85MM each season until 2026. That contract is often pointed to as one of the worst in the league, and it doesn’t look great, but remember that after next year the actual salary paid out drops to $6MM per season from 2018-22, and then down to just $1MM per year for the last three seasons. If Weber declines but the Canadiens need the cap space, they’ll be able to trade him to a team that needs help getting to the cap floor, without costing them much in return.

It’s something to think about with Radulov’s new deal. If structured similarly (though not exactly the same due to harsher restrictions on salary discrepancy), the Canadiens could take on relatively little risk over the final years of the deal, while paying Radulov most of the deal up front. Fans are likely much less worried about the actual salary paid to the player, than the cap-hit down the road. The Canadiens are clearly wealthy enough to do it if they so decide.

Radulov wants certainty, sure,  and no-movement clauses are included in almost all the free agent deals around the league. But as we’ve seen time and time again, they are often waived near the end of a player’s career so he can go to a better situation. Radulov would likely be no different, and the Canadiens could move him at the right price. In today’s NHL where the gap between cap-floor teams and cap-ceiling teams continues to grow through salary manipulation, big market teams like Montreal can afford to give out deals that pay a little more upfront to keep their talent around. The smaller markets benefit by acquiring draft and prospect assets when the time comes, and both find parity in different ways.

So when you hear about Radulov’s huge ask, don’t fret. As long as they play their cards right in the negotiating room, they won’t be left with a 36-year old Radulov destroying their cap situation. They’ll just be able to remember a 31-year old playmaker who made their top-line more dangerous than it has been in years.