Free Agent Notes: Ladd, Martin, Lucic
It’s that time of year again in the NHL, where rumors and speculation run rampant. Last night, after a report from Jimmy Murphy of VICE Sports indicated the Bruins were preparing an offer sheet for Jets’ defenceman Jacob Trouba, the Twitterverse went wild with speculation and conjecture. If the Bruins are indeed preparing a sheet, it would have to be for the maximum compensation, four first-round picks, as the team doesn’t own their second or third rounders for 2017. A tough pill to swallow to be sure, even if Trouba is the top pairing blueliner they think he is. More news about the upcoming free agent market:
- Darren Dreger wakes us this morning with a report that the Islanders, Canadiens, Lightning and Predators are all in the hunt for Andrew Ladd. As the Stamkos Extravaganza begins (and quite possibly ends) this Friday, the Ladd camp is moving slowly and assessing possible fits before really getting into any negotiations with teams.
- Matt Martin, another interesting name on the market is getting a lot of calls, writes Arthur Staple of Newsday. Detroit, Toronto, Montreal, Boston, Los Angeles and Calgary have all reached out already, making the bottom-six winger one to watch over the next few days.
- Among the chatter yesterday was talk of Milan Lucic having agreed to a deal with the Edmonton Oilers, and while this seems like it’s a little ahead of itself, it’s at least something to keep an eye on. Gene Principe of Sportsnet, among others, reported that he’s heard Lucic is probably headed to Edmonton, but can’t guarantee it.
Minor Transactions: 06/29/16
Here is where we’ll keep track of the day’s minor transactions:
- The St. Louis Blues have come to an agreement with AHL winger Jordan Caron, reports the team site. The former Boston Bruin had 36 points in 70 games with the Chicago Wolves last season. He has 157 NHL games in his career, tallying 28 points.
- Former NHLer Evgeny Artyukhin signed on to remain with his Russian club Sibir Novosibirsk, says KHL insider Aivis Kalnins. The 33-year old once was a promising youngster in the NHL, but could never catch on. He played in 199 career NHL games, scoring 19 goals and 30 assists.
- The Columbus Blue Jackets, fresh off inking Seth Jones to a long-term deal, have also come to terms with third overall pick Pierre-Luc Dubois on an entry-level contract, per Darren Dreger of TSN. Dubois was a surprise choice at #3, with many expecting the team to draft Finnish winger Jesse Puljujarvi (who eventually went to Edmonton with the next pick).
- The Panthers have reached an agreement with recently non-qualified free agent Greg McKegg per General Fanager. It’s a two-way deal worth $700K at the NHL level, and $115K if he’s in the AHL. McKegg played 15 games for the Panthers last season, putting up two points.
- The Sabres have re-signed RFA Casey Nelson to a two-year deal, the team released. The NCAA standout made his NHL debut last season, adding four assists in seven games down the stretch. He went undrafted and originally signed in March after Minnesota State University’s season ended.
Blue Jackets Agree To Contract With Seth Jones
With rumors swirling last night about a possible Jacob Trouba offer sheet, the Columbus Blue Jackets have reportedly taken that option off the table with Seth Jones, their own high-prized RFA defenceman, says Darren Dreger of TSN and Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet. Chris Johnston of Sportsnet tells us that it’s worth $5.4MM per season, for six seasons. Cap Friendly also tells us that the deal includes a limited no-trade clause in years five and six. Jones will submit a list of 10 teams he cannot be traded to.
Last week we speculated on the possibility of Jones receiving an offer-sheet because of the tight cap situation that the Blue Jackets are in, combined with his elite potential as a top-pairing shutdown defender. While GM Jarmo Kekalainen came out to say that they would match any offer sheet submitted, it would have been extremely difficult for the team to do so without having plans to move some contracts out.
If they truly have come to an agreement, it must mean that the Jackets have figured out at least a plan for what they’re to do this offseason. Currently less than $6MM from the cap (before the Jones hit), they have been trying to move out bad contracts desperately and had conversations with Edmonton on the draft floor. David Clarkson, Scott Hartnell and Fedor Tyutin all have big money left on their contracts and have performed terribly in recent years.
For Jones, this represents the first big money deal of his career after going fourth overall in the 2013 draft. While he was hidden down an outstanding depth chart in Nashville, a mid-season trade brought him to Columbus where he is expected to take over on the top pairing with either Ryan Murray or Jack Johnson. Suddenly, the Blue Jacket blueline looks mighty intimidating with David Savard and Dalton Prout rounding out the group.
Shattenkirk Open To Western Conference Trade
The Kevin Shattenkirk trade sweepstakes might just be bigger than previously thought. Despite the widespread belief that Shattenkirk would only sign long-term in the Eastern Conference, the offensive defenceman remains open to extend with some Western Conference teams, Jeremy Rutherford reports.
Rutherford tweeted that the door is not completely closed, but Shattenkirk is only open to some teams, presumably only contenders. That means, despite having the pieces to make a trade for Shattenkirk, the Edmonton Oilers do not appear to be in the running for the defender.
The St. Louis Blues writer for NHL.com Lou Korac believes the Blues asking price was Taylor Hall or Jordan Eberle. The high cost of acquiring Shattenkirk, plus the risk of him walking after this coming season could put a damper on some teams’ interest. However, the Bruins, Red Wings, Sabres, and Flyers have all inquired about trading for Shattenkirk. According to Joey Alfieri of NBC Sports, the asking price was David Pastrnak and both of the Bruins first round picks from Boston, or Dylan Larkin from the Red Wings.
Jordan Neumann, Shattenkirk’s agent, told ESPN’s Craig Custance that based on their conversations with St. Louis, they expected Shattenkirk to be dealt over the draft weekend.
Shattenkirk has one year left on his contract, with $4.25MM cap hit. According to CapFriendly, Shattenkirk will make $5.2MM in real dollars.
Free Agent Focus: Edmonton Oilers
The Edmonton Oilers were expected to be more competitive in 2015-16, thanks to phenom Connor McDavid, a new coach and GM, and off-season acquisitions Cam Talbot, Andrej Sekera, and Griffin Reinhart. Unfortunately, McDavid was hurt in early November, and by the time he returned in February, the Oilers were out of the playoff picture. Reinhart struggled early and spent the middle part of the season in the AHL. Top defender Oscar Klefbom spent more than half the year on IR after a broken knuckle and two successive staph infections. The Oilers struggled and finished 29th, mainly because of injuries and a porous defence. Stop me if you’ve heard this story before.
GM Peter Chiarelli has made several moves, with mixed results. Acquiring Talbot for picks has given the Oilers their starter for the next several seasons. Sekera is a solid second-pairing defenceman, but the Oilers are still missing two top 4 defensive options. The Reinhart trade is tough to call at this time, because of the Oilers depth of left-handed defensemen and Reinhart not being NHL-ready.
Adding Eric Gryba, Zack Kassian, and Patrick Maroon made the Oilers harder to play against, something that has sorely been missing in Oil Country. Big center Leon Draisaitl rebounded from a tough rookie season to put up 51 points despite spending a month in the AHL. Former 6th round pick in 2010 Brandon Davidson made the team as the 8th defenceman and played his way into a top 4 role, earning an extension and praise from around the league.
Chiarelli compared the team’s improvement to a “taller midget”.
Cap space: $10.3MM, 22 players under contract
Key RFAs: none
Other RFAs: W Iiro Pakarinen, D Jordan Oesterle, D Adam Clendening, LW Luke Gazdic, D David Musil
Clendening and Gazdic were not qualified and will become UFAs.
Key UFAs: none
Other UFAs: D Eric Gryba, RW Adam Cracknell, D Adam Pardy, D Niki Nikitin
Outlook: The Oilers don’t have any key players to re-sign, but need to drastically improve their back end through trades or free agency. Watch for Chiarelli to be involved in a few dealings around the draft.
High profile names like Travis Hamonic, PK Subban, Tyson Barrie, Jacob Trouba, Hampus Lindholm, Sami Vatanen, Seth Jones, Jason Demers, and Justin Faulk have all been linked to the Oilers at different points. While the ask for those players would be high, the Oilers have organizational depth in NHL forwards and prospect defensemen.
Besides defence, the Oilers need a right-handed centre with skill, more depth on right wing, and a backup goalie to allow Laurent Brossoit to develop further in the AHL. Big UFA winger Milan Lucic is a player of interest, as he would allow the Oilers to trade one of Jordan Eberle or Benoit Pouliot for defensive help.
Former first overall pick Nail Yakupov asked for a trade, and will likely be dealt on the draft floor. TSN 1260’s Jason Gregor reported the Ducks and Oilers were close to a trade involving Yakupov and Pouliot heading to Anaheim, but Pouliot’s season-ending injury ended those talks. In the end, Maroon was sent to Edmonton for project prospect Martin Gernat and a 4th round pick.
Former captain Andrew Ference will likely spend the year on LTIR, freeing up an additional $3.25MM under the cap. Ference underwent hip surgery in March.
Fourth overall pick Jesse Puljujarvi will likely make the team, but could spend some time in Bakersfield to adjust to North America. In any case, don’t expect any other rookies to crack the opening night roster, but college free agent signing Drake Caggiula and AHLers Oesterle, Reinhart, Anton Slepyshev, Bogdan Yakimov, and Jujhar Khaira should see some NHL time during the season. Finnish winger Jere Sallinen was signed from the KHL and could be a dark horse to make the team as an extra forward.
Expansion draft wise, the Oilers are likely able to protect everyone they want to on their current roster with the exception of Brossoit, but he won’t be among the top 3 goaltenders available based on his struggles at the NHL level. Issues could come up after a summer of improving the roster, but Chiarelli won’t be too concerned about that yet.
Free Agent Profile: David Backes
David Backes is fifth on PHR’s Top 50 Unrestricted Free Agents list. In this market the St. Louis Blues captain will command $5MM+ a year despite coming off of his worst season statistically since 2007-08. His leadership, grit, and ability to score timely goals are characteristics valued by NHL GMs and are always in demand.
Backes epitomizes the steady scorer, collecting between 45-60 points a season since 2008. It is his two-way play, however, that garners all the attention. The perennial Selke Trophy candidate’s defensive prowess compares to Jonathan Toews, Anze Kopitar, and Patrice Bergeron. He excels in the face-off dot, and was second to only Alex Steen in team TOI.
POTENTIAL SUITORS
St. Louis is the main candidate to sign Backes. The team drafted him in 2003—62nd in a historically stacked draft year—and made him captain in 2011. Backes has been one of the Blues’ top producers year in and year out by consistently finishing near the top of the team scoring leaders. GM Doug Armstrong said in February that trading Backes as an impending free agent at the deadline “would be an injustice” to the team. Armstrong doubled down on his desire to keep Backes in June, telling NHL.com that the team would like Backes back, and are willing to pony up some “thank-you” money. This makes sense as the Blues don’t want to take a step back after making it to the Western Conference Finals last year. It is also rare for teams to lose their captains to free agency, but then again the Blues traded away former captain Eric Brewer before giving the captaincy to Backes. Cap space won’t be a problem, however, as they currently have over $14MM in cap space.
Other suitors would be any team missing out on Steven Stamkos in free agency. Backes will command less in term and in money, which make him an option for thriftier teams. The center would also be a good option for teams with up-and-coming centers not be ready for top line duties yet—teams like Buffalo, Edmonton, and Toronto. Detroit is also a good fit as Backes could replace elite two-way forward Pavel Datsyuk. Backes will not cure any team’s scoring woes, but he will add elite two-way offense and concrete leadership. Expect him to either re-sign with the Blues after testing free agency, or sign with a team looking for more defensive responsibility from its forwards.
EXPECTED CONTRACT
PHR predicts that Backes receives a six-year, $34MM contract, averaging out to just over $5.5MM a year. His age (32) brings the dollar amount down slightly. While he embodies the prototypical power forward role, his numbers declined this year and may leave some teams wary of the future. Moreover, his age will take a toll on the more physical aspects of his game. In a market where Andrew Shaw receives $3.9MM a year, however, Backes may cash in on one more payday before the inevitable decline.
Free Agent Profile: Kyle Okposo
Though Steven Stamkos has been dominating the free agent headlines as we inch closer to Friday’s deadline, there’s another player who some teams might value quite highly. Kyle Okposo has been a hugely productive player the last few years, ranking 17th in PPG since 2013-14. Last season he put up 64 points, tying him with Stamkos for the lead among the unrestricted class, and only turned 28 this April.
A three-time twenty goal scorer, Okposo now has 369 points in 529 career games and usually graded out as a positive possession player. The caveat though is that he’s spent a lot of time on the wing of New York superstar John Tavares, and his stats may be inflated because of it.
Potential Suitors
Despite the potential Tavares-shaped red flag, Okposo is sure to get interest from at least a dozen teams this offseason. His combination of youth, offensive performance and an increasingly physical style will make teams salivate as they imagine installing him on their top line. 60-point wingers don’t grow on trees, and as Arthur Staple of Newsday reports there are already a handful of teams calling for him.
If the rumors are true, the LA Kings do seem like a natural fit for the winger as they’ll be losing both Milan Lucic and Kris Versteeg this summer. Though Okposo plays the right side, and Lucic the left, the offense would be a welcome addition to a team looking to make it back to the playoffs. Perhaps playing along excellent centers in Anze Kopitar or Jeff Carter would hide some of the regression many believe to be coming.
Detroit also seems like a good fit, as though they are deep on the left side with Tomas Tatar, Justin Abdelkader and Henrik Zetterberg (when he’s not playing in the middle) they have only Gustav Nyquist as a proven top-six guy on the right side. Okposo would be a great consolation prize if they can’t land Stamkos, as the team heads into a new era without Pavel Datsyuk.
Expected Contract
In our Top 50 List we had Okposo receiving a seven-year, $47.25MM deal from the Sabres, giving him an annual salary of $6.75MM. As GM Tim Murray has recently been quoted saying he’s going to go after the “big fish” this summer, perhaps it’s not out of the question that Okposo would land there. Either way, expect him to sign a deal for at least six years, and upwards of $40MM. The Minnesota native may in fact crack $7MM per season, something that only 28 skaters currently do.
If the last few seasons are his true talent, perhaps he’ll be looking to be paid even higher than that, as players like Corey Perry, Phil Kessel and Jonathan Toews all earn a substantial amount more, while providing less offensive production (on a per game basis) the last three years. While it would be hard to see anyone rank him ahead of these players overall, perhaps that’s just a symptom of riding under Tavares’ shadow and in the less-covered portion of New York sports.
RFA Notes: Leafs, Colborne, Jones
As the deadline to submit qualifying offers for pending restricted free agents came and went yesterday, information on the Maple Leafs was nowhere to be found. The notoriously tight-lipped Lou Lamoirello still hasn’t given an official update on his RFAs, but reports have started to trickle out. According to Chris Johnston of Sportsnet, the Maple Leafs have qualified Connor Carrick, Garret Sparks, Peter Holland, Josh Leivo, Martin Marincin and Frank Corrado while not qualifying Stuart Percy, Sam Carrick and Colin Smith.
- According to Darren Dreger of TSN, via Chris Nichols, the Calgary Flames are still confident they’ll sign recently non-qualified center Joe Colborne. After notching 19 goals and 44 points last season, Colborne had a great case for arbitration and was surprising to see among Calgary’s list yesterday. Dreger adds that the new contract will probably fall somewhere between $3.5 and $4MM per season. Colborne has 100 points in 217 games as a Flame since coming over from the Maple Leafs in 2013.
- Ken Warren of the Ottawa Citizen tells us that there were no trade offers for Patrick Wiercioch, another non-qualified name coming out of Ottawa yesterday. Wiercioch had played at least 50 games for the Senators for the past three seasons, but saw his point total drop to a career low last season with just five assists. The 25-year old will now look for a job elsewhere as a left-handed, bottom pairing defenceman.
- Dreger also gives us a note on pending RFA and offer sheet candidate Seth Jones and his current negotiation with the Columbus Blue Jackets. Though the team is in dire need of cap relief, the team sees him as a top priority going into the summer. Ian Mendes, also of TSN adds an interesting quote from GM Jarmo Kekalainen: “If someone wants to be silly and make it cost more money, we’ll match it.”
Eric Staal Has 3-4 Interested Teams
After an extremely disappointing season, Eric Staal is on the free agent market for the first time in his career and looking to rebuild his value. Tuesday afternoon John Shannon tells us that he has had interest from at least three or four teams to this point, and that Staal still considers himself a top-six center.
Staal, 31, put up less than 50 points for the first time in his career this past season, and saw his role diminished after a mid-season trade to the New York Rangers. A former 100 point player, he’s looking to catch on somewhere and prove that he’s not finished as an elite goal-scoring center as he enters his thirties.
While he’ll probably not look for a long-term deal, Staal still might get upwards of $5MM per season from a team banking on a rebound. If he indeed can make it back to the player he once was, a two-year deal would put him back on the market at 33, able to make one last long-term deal before retiring. In our recent top-50 UFA list we ranked Staal at 13, suggesting that the Islanders might be interested in the eldest brother.
CHL 2016 Import Draft Results
The CHL import draft is an important one for NHL scouts to keep an eye on, as it brings some of the best talent in the world over to play and develop a little closer to home. While not all of the players selected make the trip across the ocean, many of the top draftees eventually make their mark in the NHL draft, as we saw first hand just last weekend.
Olli Juolevi, Alex Nylander and Mikhail Sergachev all were import drafts in 2015 and made their name in the OHL before going in the top-10 on Friday. Others, like German Rubtsov have already gone in the first round (#22 to the Flyers) before even being selected for the CHL. Here is the first round of the 2016 CHL Import Draft:
#1 Kootenay – Klim Kostin (C, Russia)
#2 Guelph – Dmitri Samorukov (LD, Russia)
#3 Baie-Comeau – Ivan Chekhovich (C, Russia)
#4 Vancouver – Filip Zadina (RW, Czech Republic)
#5 Sudbury – Jachym Kondelik (LW, Czech Republic)
#6 Halifax – Nico Hischier (RW, Switzerland)
#7 Saskatoon – Mark Rubinchik (LD, Russia)
#8 Flint – Michal Steinocher (LD, Czech Republic)
#9 Drummondville – Pavel Koltygin (LW, Russia)
#10 Swift Current – Aleksi Heponiemi (LW, Finland)