Free Agent Profile: Brad Richards
Brad Richards is one of several free agent forwards still available to sign. PHR ranked Richards #43 out of the top 50 available free agents. Richards inked a one-year, $3MM deal with the Detroit Red Wings for the 2015-16 season. While the deal looked good on paper, Richards and the Red Wings never really worked together. Instead, Richards noted that “the season didn’t go the way I wanted it to or the team wanted it to.”
Richards lack of production didn’t help matters, as he recorded 28 points (10-18), hardly what the Wings expected. It was the second consecutive season of declining performance for Richards, who acknowledged that after playing for three teams in three seasons, he would have to “recharge his batteries” before making his next move.
Potential Suitors
This is where it gets dicey. As the free agent market dries out and younger forwards like Jiri Hudler or Kris Versteeg haven’t be re-signed, Richards doesn’t look to have a lot of suitors lining up. That isn’t to say he couldn’t produce for the right team. Richards failure with the Red Wings was two sided; Richards didn’t fit the system as well as he did in Chicago and the Red Wings are more of a team in transition than a contender. Richards would be best suited on a team making a run for the Cup. Los Angeles is one potential fit if he’d agree to a cheaper deal, but their lack of cap room would make it difficult. The St. Louis Blues could also be another option. The New York Islanders and Buffalo Sabres could add him for depth at a discounted price; the Sabres could also benefit greatly by adding his leadership. Finally, if he was really looking for another Cup and willing to take a significant pay cut, the Chicago Blackhawks could be an ideal fit. Stan Bowman is creative enough to make an interesting and cap friendly pitch.
Projected Contract
PHR guessed that Richards would fetch a one-year, $2MM deal from the Colorado Avalanche. As the summer drags on and a deal doesn’t happen, don’t be surprised if Richards seriously considers retirement. Richards mentioned how the retirement of Vincent Lecavalier causes retirement to “creep into your mind.” After winning two Cups, most recently with Chicago in 2015, odds on Richards hanging up his skates might not be too far off.
If Richards is offered a deal, expect it to be something between $1.5MM and $2MM. With declining production, any team looking for a depth move probably wouldn’t offer much more.
Minor Transactions: 7/19/16
Here is where we will keep track of any minor transactions through today:
- The Columbus Blue Jackets have announced the re-signing of Lake Erie Monsters head coach Jared Bednar. The deal is through the 2018-19 season. Bednar led the Monsters to their first ever Calder Cup Championship as the team went 15-2 through the playoffs. In addition to Bednar’s re-signing, the Monsters added assistant coach Steve McCarthy, and assistant general manager Blake Geoffrion. Goalie coach Manny Legace was also brought back for another year.
- Goaltender Kent Simpson has signed with the San Antonio Rampage, AHL affiliate for the Colorado Avalanche. In addition to Simpson, the Rampage also inked netminder Nathan Lieuwen to a one-year deal.
- Forward Nico Hischier has committed to the Halifax Mooseheads. Hischier was the sixth overall pick in the CHL import draft and is considered one of the top prospects for the 2017 NHL Draft. He played for SC Bern last season in the NLA and also for the Bern U20 team.
- The Wild placed Jordan Schroeder on waivers. Schroeder is a restricted free agent awaiting an arbitration ruling. Schroeder had four points (2-2) in 26 games with the Wild while having 34 points (14-20) in 40 games with the Iowa Wild.
- Former NHL goaltender Jason LaBarbera has been hired by the Calgary Hitmen as a goalie coach for the upcoming season. LaBarbera played last season for the Lehigh Valley Phantoms of the AHL, notching a 3.02 GAA with an .899 save percentage. The veteran of 187 NHL games is 36-years old.
Snapshots: Nashville’s Expectations, Weber
Nashville finds itself in some unfamiliar territory writes NHL.com’s Cutler Klein. Expectations are high after the Preds’ trade for P.K. Subban, which ratcheted up Nashville’s chances of competing for the Stanley Cup. Add in a young nucleus of players, and the Preds could be staring contention in the face. Klein reports that while the Preds boast some formidable young players, it will be crucial that they step up to their projected ceilings. Klein believes that despite having Filip Forsberg, and Ryan Johansen among others, the Preds still need depth scoring to break through to the next leve.
The departures of Eric Nystrom and Paul Gaustad will give some of the younger players the chance to step up and contribute. Klein also adds that Preds reaching the next level is contingent on Pekka Rinne‘s performance between the pipes. Klein writes that should Rinne return to the elite status that buoyed the Predators for many seasons, they will certainly be in the running for a Stanley Cup. Klein notes that while Rinne slipped a bit in performance last season, he is still one of the best in the league.
In other NHL news:
- Puck Daddy’s Greg Wyshynski wades into the great Shea Weber for Subban trade debate after yesterday’s news that former Canadiens analyst Matt Pfeffer called Weber “average.” Wyshynski brought visuals in, as well as the written word, to break down the trade even further. Employing graphs from Micah Blake McCurdy, McCurdy indicates (via Twitter) that while calling Weber average may be too simplified, Weber has certainly reached his ceiling in terms of performance. Further on in the article, Wyshynski addressed Pfeffer’s claim that analytics are being scared off in NHL circles. Wyshynski concludes, after speaking with other analytic consultants in the league, that this is a subjective in nature. Some organizations are more comfortable with an integration of analytics while others prefer and old schools approach. What Wyshynski did find was an “ideological gap” between general managers and coaches regarding analytics. Regardless, Wyshynski believes that Weber is more than “average” in 2016-17 and that analytics are an organizational preference.
Calgary Notes: Monahan And Gaudreau
Restricted free agent (RFA) center Sean Monahan says contract talks with Calgary are “getting there”.
Monahan told TSN’s Gino Reda “I definitely want to be there for a long time”, adding he wants to play in Calgary for the rest of his career. He said his preference is a long-term deal, but noted that’s not up to him. The Flames are currently in negotiations with both Monahan and fellow RFA (and leading scorer) Johnny Gaudreau, but will need to be careful with regards to the salary cap.
Currently, the Flames have over $14MM in cap space before signing Gaudreau and Monahan. They should get some relief next summer, with pending UFAs Dennis Wideman, Ladislav Smid, and Deryk Engelland freeing up $11.66MM. However, newly-acquired starting goalie Brian Elliott and young forward Sam Bennett will need new contracts. The Flames also need to improve their team, following their fifth place finish in the Pacific Division.
When asked about the possibility of taking a hometown discount to help build a contender, Monahan agreed that it was part of his thought process, saying “if you’re a high-end player and you’re playing somewhere at a young age, that’s where your heart is and where you want to win.”
Monahan says he’s been in contact with Gaudreau and was scheduled to meet with him Monday night to “have a little chat”. The two are good friends and not battling about salary negotiations, according to Monahan.
“Our goal is to bring the Stanley Cup to Calgary… if we can bring other players in and have a little extra money… to help us be a better team, that’s the idea.
Monahan is coming off back to back 60-plus point seasons, while Gaudreau has scored 64 and 78 points in his first two NHL seasons.
Subban “Head-Over-Heels Excited” To Play In Nashville
The Nashville Predators unveiled newly-acquired superstar defenseman P.K. Subban to their fans and local media on Monday. According to the Canadian Press, Subban had lunch with new teammates Mike Fisher and Ryan Ellis as part of his tour of the city prior to the press conference, where he sang Johnny Cash’s “Folsom Prison Blues”.
Subban told reporters he will always have fond memories of and connections to Montreal, but that he’s ready to move on, saying “coming here [Nashville] is not a popularity contest. Coming here is about helping this team to win and win a championship”.
Predators General Manager David Poile called his new acquisition a “superstar, game-changing defenseman and one of the most electrifying players in the game”. Poile was hopeful that the trade would help his team score more goals and spend less time in the defensive zone.
The Predators paid a big price to acquire the former Norris trophy winner, trading their captain Shea Weber to Montreal in a rare one-for-one trade. The June 29 trade is still a highly controversial topic; the Canadiens recently let go analytics consultant Matt Pfeffer after he submitted a “passionate” report in defence of Subban prior to the trade, in which he reportedly called Weber an “average player”. Earlier this afternoon, Pfeffer tweeted some context to the “average” remark, saying it was specifically with regards to one advanced stat category.
Subban and Weber each put up 51 points last season, however Weber scored more goals (20-6) in 10 more games (78-68). However, Subban has outscored Weber by 22 points (202-180) since 2012-13. Subban drives the play more than Weber, who is a more steady defensive defenseman. According to an analysis by Jonathan Willis, Weber relied on partner Roman Josi to make outlet passes, something that Subban excels at. Subban is also four year younger than Weber and just reaching the prime of his career.
Contract-wise, Subban is the highest-paid defenseman in the NHL. He earns an average of $9MM per year until 2022, while Weber’s cap hit is slightly lower at $7.86MM but doesn’t expire until 2026. Subban will be just 32 when his deal is up, only two years older than Weber is today. Weber will be 41 when his contract expires, which could lead to some nasty cap-recapture penalties for Nashville if he retires before then. Poile obviously feels the risk is worth it to acquire Subban, giving them possibly the best top four defense in the league with Subban, Josi, Ellis, and Mattias Ekholm.
Capology Recap
ProHockeyRumors occasionally delves into the inner workings of the CBA to explain concepts crucial to modern NHL deals. Check out our past Capology posts and be on the lookout for future ones.
Capology 101 Posts
Buyouts: Explaining how NHL buyouts work and how to calculate a buyout’s cap hit.
Player Contracts: Outlining the limitations imposed by the CBA on player contracts.
NTCs and NMCs: Defining and explaining no-trade clauses and no-movement clauses.
RFA (Part One): Exploring what it means to be a restricted free agent.
Salary Arbitration (Part One and Two): Examining salary arbitration eligibility and the hearing process.
Columbus Notes: Harrington; Tynan; Broadhurst
Aaron Portzline of the Columbus Dispatch reports that the Columbus Blue Jackets are close to new deals with three RFAs: Scott Harrington, T.J. Tynan, and Alex Broadhurst. Those three are Columbus’s only remaining RFAs.
- Harrington remains the biggest name of the bunch. Columbus acquired the big defenseman from Toronto for Kerby Rychel on June 26, 2016. Toronto initially received Harrington in the Phil Kessel trade with Pittsburgh. He tallied only one assist in 15 games with the Leafs while scoring 1G and 2A with the AHL Toronto Marlies. Harrington is expected to battle for the 5/6 defensive slots in camp this fall as the Blue Jackets only have six experienced defensemen on the roster.
- Tynan racked up 6G and 40A last year with the AHL Lake Erie Monsters, and is looking to make the jump to the NHL. The small forward—listed at 5’8″—has to compensate for his lack of size, but the Blue Jackets are familiar with the potential skill set from smaller players. Top-line forward Cam Atkinson is also listed at 5’8″, and he’s scored at least 20 goals in the last three seasons.
- Alex Broadhurst came over from the Chicago Blackhawks in the deal for Brandon Saad. The center tallied 10G and 26A with the Lake Erie Monsters last season, and 3G and 9A in the Monsters’ Calder Cup-winning run.
We’ve previously reported that Columbus has been quiet this off-season, and these signings do little to quell the notion that they will be a lottery team come 2017. Fans can take solace in the fact that the Blue Jackets’ AHL affiliate are Calder Cup champions, something that bodes well for the future of the big league team.
[Columbus Blue Jackets Depth Chart]
Free Agent Profile: Alex Tanguay
Alex Tanguay is one of the top remaining point producers left on the open market but more than two weeks into the free agency period, he hasn’t received much interest around the league. Here is a closer look at his situation.
Tanguay is one of the oldest forwards still available but has a proven track record of producing, even as he gets older. Last year with Colorado and Arizona, Tanguay recorded eight goals and 27 assists in 70 games including 13 points in 18 games with the Coyotes after being acquired. Over the past three years, he has averaged 0.61 points per game which is still above average and is even more impressive when you consider that most of those points came at even strength. In his career, he has 283 goals and 580 assists in 1,088 NHL games between Colorado, Calgary, Montreal, Tampa Bay, and Arizona.
So why is he still unsigned? For starters, his age (36) works against him, as does the fact he plays smaller than his size and is showing signs of slowing down. Tanguay also isn’t the best of players in his own end which limits the type of role he can succeed in down to a second or third line with some other two-way players.
Potential Suitors
At this point, Tanguay would fit somewhere on a team that has a short-term vacancy in an offensive role where he could serve as a placeholder for another player or prospect later on in the season or on a team that is lacking in forward depth. Teams that fit one of those criteria include Ottawa, Montreal, Arizona (where we originally predicted he’d sign), Anaheim, and Minnesota.
Projected Contract
Tanguay ranked 33rd on our Top 50 UFA list and we had originally projected that he wouldn’t have as much difficulty getting a contract as he has and that he’d stay with the Coyotes as a veteran mentor for $2.5MM. At this stage of free agency, where teams tend to wait out the remaining UFA’s, it’s highly unlikely he will be able to get that much. A one year pact closer to $1MM even is looking more likely at this point considering who else is still available and that some teams have filled out their rosters.
Snapshots: Vrbata, Chipchura, Girgensons, Nesterov, Keller
Free agent right winger Radim Vrbata appears to be getting closer to signing a contract. His agent Rich Evans told AZ Sports’ Craig Morgan that they “have been discussing the structure of a contract with four teams and hope to come to an agreement shortly”. He picked up 13 goals and 14 assists in 63 games with Vancouver last season. Vrbata ranked 27th on our Top 50 UFA list and while Evans didn’t provide any specifics about which teams he was talking to but we suggested in his free agent profile that the Senators, Hurricanes, Rangers, Ducks, Bruins, and Sabres all could have a spot for him.
More news and notes from around the hockey world:
- Former first round pick Kyle Chipchura has signed a one year contract with HC Slovan Bratislava, the KHL team announced. He was Montreal’s first round pick in 2004 (18th overall) but didn’t turn into the high end checking center that the Canadiens envisioned. Chipchura was able to churn out a decent NHL career though, playing in 482 career games with Montreal, Anaheim, and Arizona, collecting 104 points and at just 30 years of age, could potentially earn another NHL deal with a good showing overseas.
- Zemgus Girgensons’ negotiations with the Sabres on a new deal could prove to be a challenge, writes Mike Harrington of the Buffalo News. Harrington suggests that the 22 year old is likely looking for a two or three year deal but that will be more difficult since he’s coming off a down year. Last season, Girgensons had career lows across the board with just seven goals and 11 assists in 71 games while seeing his average ice time drop over four minutes from 2014-15. Buffalo’s $874K qualifying offer to him expired last week.
- The Russian Ice Hockey Federation announced that Tampa Bay defenseman Nikita Nesterov has been named to Team Russia for the upcoming World Cup. He will replace former Los Angeles rearguard Slava Voynov who was deemed ineligible by the NHL as he remains under indefinite suspension for his arrest on felony domestic violence in late 2014. Nesterov is the fourth member of the Lightning to be named to the Russian team, joining forwards Nikita Kucherov and Vladislav Namestnikov as well as goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy.
- One of the bigger off-ice battles has been surrounding Arizona 2016 first round pick Clayton Keller, notes Ryan Kennedy of The Hockey News. He has committed to Boston University of the NCAA but the OHL’s Windsor Spitfires hold his junior rights and are trying to entice him to forego school and go there instead. Kennedy reports that at this stage, Keller is intent on sticking to his college commitment but as we’ve seen in past years, things can change in a hurry in these recruitment battles.
Arbitration Breakdown: Marcus Johansson
The first arbitration numbers have been filed as Washington and left winger Marcus Johansson each made their submissions in advance of Wednesday’s hearing. According to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman, the Capitals have offered a one year deal at $3.85MM while Johansson’s camp is seeking $5.25MM. Here is a closer look at Johansson’s case.
[For more background on the arbitration process, consult Parts One and Two of our Capology 101: Arbitration series.]
The Numbers
Points wise, Johansson has been quite consistent over the past three years, collecting between 44 and 47 points in each. In 2015-16, he suited up in 74 games for the Caps, scoring 17 goals and 29 assists, matching the second highest point total of his career. That ranked him sixth in team scoring. The bulk of his production came in the second quarter of the season though where he collected 17 points in that span; his point totals in any of the other three quarters failed to exceed 12.
Johansson was a top six forward with Washington and a fixture on their power play, logging 2:44 per night with the man advantage last season. He also spent more time at center than he had since 2011-12, taking 278 faceoffs, winning 46% of them. In the postseason, he added seven points in 12 games which also ranked him sixth on the team.
In the early stages of his career, Johansson was predominantly a playmaker as 70% of his points in his first four seasons were assists. The 25 year old has shown more of a scoring touch the last two years, however, as only 60% of his points have been assists. This can only work to strengthen Johansson’s case as goal scoring is a major factor in arbitration awards and a more well-rounded offensive player should stand to earn more than a one-dimensional playmaker.
Potential Comparables
Colin Wilson (Nashville) – Wilson avoided arbitration with the Preds last offseason, agreeing to a four year deal with a cap hit of $3.9375MM coming off a 20 goal, 42 point season where he averaged over 16 minutes per game. Like Johansson, Wilson also spent some time at centre and the wing and has been more of a playmaker than a scorer throughout his career.
Nazem Kadri (Toronto) – Like Johansson last offseason, Kadri spent 2015-16 on a one year, ‘prove it’ deal and parlayed that into $4.5MM per season for six years. Over the past three seasons, their points per game averages are nearly identical (0.59 for Kadri, 0.58 for Johansson) and play similar roles with their respective clubs.
Craig Smith (Nashville) – Smith’s year-to-year production when he signed a five year deal with a $4.25MM AAV was more volatile than Johansson’s but the overall numbers are comparable. Both players are secondary producers that have left their teams wanting more at times, particularly in the consistency department.
Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency.
Projection
Last offseason, Johansson was awarded $3.75MM coming off a season that was quite similar to the one he had in 2015-16 both in terms of his point production and role. With that in mind, it’s hard to see the arbitrator leaning closer to Johansson’s number. Typically, it’s expected that an award will come in close to the midpoint (in this case, $4.55MM) but this should come in a bit lower than that. We project a $4.25MM award from the arbitrator if the two sides can’t come to terms on a new deal before then.