Arbitration Breakdown: Marcus Johansson
The first arbitration numbers have been filed as Washington and left winger Marcus Johansson each made their submissions in advance of Wednesday’s hearing. According to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman, the Capitals have offered a one year deal at $3.85MM while Johansson’s camp is seeking $5.25MM. Here is a closer look at Johansson’s case.
[For more background on the arbitration process, consult Parts One and Two of our Capology 101: Arbitration series.]
The Numbers
Points wise, Johansson has been quite consistent over the past three years, collecting between 44 and 47 points in each. In 2015-16, he suited up in 74 games for the Caps, scoring 17 goals and 29 assists, matching the second highest point total of his career. That ranked him sixth in team scoring. The bulk of his production came in the second quarter of the season though where he collected 17 points in that span; his point totals in any of the other three quarters failed to exceed 12.
Johansson was a top six forward with Washington and a fixture on their power play, logging 2:44 per night with the man advantage last season. He also spent more time at center than he had since 2011-12, taking 278 faceoffs, winning 46% of them. In the postseason, he added seven points in 12 games which also ranked him sixth on the team.
In the early stages of his career, Johansson was predominantly a playmaker as 70% of his points in his first four seasons were assists. The 25 year old has shown more of a scoring touch the last two years, however, as only 60% of his points have been assists. This can only work to strengthen Johansson’s case as goal scoring is a major factor in arbitration awards and a more well-rounded offensive player should stand to earn more than a one-dimensional playmaker.
Potential Comparables
Colin Wilson (Nashville) – Wilson avoided arbitration with the Preds last offseason, agreeing to a four year deal with a cap hit of $3.9375MM coming off a 20 goal, 42 point season where he averaged over 16 minutes per game. Like Johansson, Wilson also spent some time at centre and the wing and has been more of a playmaker than a scorer throughout his career.
Nazem Kadri (Toronto) – Like Johansson last offseason, Kadri spent 2015-16 on a one year, ‘prove it’ deal and parlayed that into $4.5MM per season for six years. Over the past three seasons, their points per game averages are nearly identical (0.59 for Kadri, 0.58 for Johansson) and play similar roles with their respective clubs.
Craig Smith (Nashville) – Smith’s year-to-year production when he signed a five year deal with a $4.25MM AAV was more volatile than Johansson’s but the overall numbers are comparable. Both players are secondary producers that have left their teams wanting more at times, particularly in the consistency department.
Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency.
Projection
Last offseason, Johansson was awarded $3.75MM coming off a season that was quite similar to the one he had in 2015-16 both in terms of his point production and role. With that in mind, it’s hard to see the arbitrator leaning closer to Johansson’s number. Typically, it’s expected that an award will come in close to the midpoint (in this case, $4.55MM) but this should come in a bit lower than that. We project a $4.25MM award from the arbitrator if the two sides can’t come to terms on a new deal before then.
Western Conference Notes: Schmaltz, Subban, Larsson
Evidently the new Las Vegas expansion team is wasting little time getting up and running. As we mentioned yesterday, the newest entry in the Western Conference was closing in on naming the first GM in franchise history. Today we learned a press conference has indeed been scheduled for tomorrow at 1 pm PST where club owner Bill Foley is expected to announce his choice. Speculation, and that’s all it is at this point, is that George McPhee, formerly the longtime GM of the Washington Capitals and currently serving as an adviser with the Islanders under Garth Snow, will be named Las Vegas’ inaugural GM.
More from the wild, wild West:
- Chicago GM Stan Bowman deserves a lot of credit for maintaining the Hawks presence as a Stanley Cup contender despite annual salary dumps, including this summer’s trades of Teuvo Teravainen and Andrew Shaw. His ability to constantly juggle his roster while remaining cap compliant is due to the constant infusion of affordable young talent the organization continues to find and develop. Mark Lazarus of the Chicago Sun Times profiles several youngsters who aim to make the Hawks roster for the 2016-17 season.
- Addressing questions from the reader mailbag, Adam Vingan of the Tennessean speculates how the Predators will employ shiny new toy, P.K. Subban. Like many, I thought the Predators got the better end of the Subban-for-Shea Weber trade. Subban is an electrifying talent still in his prime at 27 while Weber would seem to be on the downside as he approaches his 31st birthday. Plus with another decade remaining on Weber’s contract with a cap hit in excess of $7.8MM per, the Canadiens took on a healthy amount of risk on the back end of his deal.
- From the same mailbag, Vingan also deals with the same tough choices every NHL GM will have to face between now and the expansion draft; namely which quality NHL player or players will they leave exposed. The league certainly went out of its way to ensure Las Vegas will be able to add legitimate talent and a lot of teams will be in the unenviable position of allowing a good player to leave for nothing.
- The Subban deal wasn’t the only blockbuster trade completed this summer and it may not even by the one most panned by critics. Nearly every pundit thought the Devils pilfered LW Taylor Hall from Edmonton with Adam Larsson the return going to the Oilers. But it may not be as bad as it seems. Bottom line is GM Peter Chiarelli absolutely needed to upgrade his defense corps and likely didn’t have a lot of palatable options with which to do so. Plenty of young, RFA defensemen have been rumored to possibly be available via trade but exactly none have been moved to date despite the abundant need for quality blueliners around the league. Plus, unlike those RFA’s who would need new contracts with salaries inflating, Larsson comes at the beginning of a freshly inked deal that pays him a shade over $4.1MM on average for the next five seasons. That cost control has value. Fact is, Chiarelli might have made the best deal possible at the time, even if it ends up being a net negative in the long run.
Full Salary Arbitration Hearing Schedule
The NHLPA released the full schedule of arbitration hearings today, which will not include Jordan Weal, after he re-signed with the Philadelphia Flyers earlier today. Teams and players can still negotiate up until the hearing, and many will reach agreements before going to arbitration. For more information on the arbitration process, check out part one of our full guide. Here is the full schedule:
PLAYER ELECTED FILINGS
Arizona Coyotes
Michael Stone – August 4, 2016
Colorado Avalanche
Tyson Barrie – July 29, 2016
Mikhail Grigorenko – July 22, 2016
Detroit Red Wings
Danny DeKeyser – July 28, 2016
Minnesota Wild
Jordan Schroeder – July 27, 2016
Nashville Predators
Calle Jarnkrok – August 4, 2016
Petter Granberg – August 3, 2016
New York Rangers
Kevin Hayes – July 27, 2016
Chris Kreider – July 22, 2016
Dylan McIlrath – July 21, 2016
J.T. Miller – August 2, 2016
Ottawa Senators
Mike Hoffman – August 4, 2016
Philadelphia Flyers
Brandon Manning – August 2, 2016
Brayden Schenn – July 25, 2016
St. Louis Blues
Jaden Schwartz – July 20, 2016
Tampa Bay Lightning
Alex Killorn – July 20, 2016
Vladislav Namestnikov – July 29, 2016
Toronto Maple Leafs
Frank Corrado – July 26, 2016
Peter Holland – July 25, 2016
Martin Marincin – August 2, 2016
Washington Capitals
Marcus Johansson – July 20, 2016
CLUB ELECTED FILINGS
Detroit Red Wings
Petr Mrazek – July 27, 2016
Tomas Kundratek Eyeing Return To NHL
After playing in the KHL for the last two seasons, former Washington Capitals defenseman Tomas Kundratek is currently exploring options for a return to the NHL, according to KHL insider Aivis Kalnins. The Czech blueliner came over to North America after being drafted in 2008 by the New York Rangers, and would play for the Medicine Hat Tigers and a handful of AHL teams before making his NHL debut in 2011-12 with the Capitals.
According to the original tweet after being traded last season, Kundratek agreed to an extension through the 2016-17 season, meaning he’d need to be released from that deal or have a built in opt-out clause. Still just 26-years old, Kundratek would be an unrestricted free agent should he be able to come back across the pond, and could be an interesting option for a team willing to take a chance.
In 30 NHL games Kundratek had just seven points, but he showed he was a capable point producer at the AHL level, putting up 94 across 247 games. A right-handed shot, Kundratek split last season between Riga Dynamo and Bratislava Slovan, scoring 24 points in 56 games.
Are NHL Super Teams Possible?
Puck Daddy’s Ryan Lambert writes that the idea of an NHL super team in the mold of the new NBA craze is simply unattainable due to the economics and setup of the league. Lambert shows that while an NBA team can sign a young, future hall of fame player who can immediately impact a team, hockey does not have the same luxury. Lambert uses Sidney Crosby as an example. Should Crosby end up in Detroit, his impact would be felt, but would not guarantee Detroit as a Cup contender. Instead, it would take other pieces to solidify such a dominating force.
The setup of the sports are different as well. Lambert shows that a Pittsburgh team comprised of Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel and Kris Letang struggled at times to get past teams that were not nearly as deep with talent. Lambert even went as as far to show “death lineups” of players who dominated while on the same side. Though they wore the same jerseys, their impact was different because in hockey, it’s rare that all of those players will appear on the ice at the exact same time. Of those six death lineups, five won a Cup. Only the 2012-13 Bruins, who lost in the Stanley Cup Final to the Blackhawks (also another death lineup), fell short.
Lambert doesn’t discount that having eight high end, perennial all-star caliber players could heavily favor a team. It’s just that the restrictive nature of the salary cap prevents it from happening. At best, Lambert writes, a team can have four or five high end players at a time.
Perhaps the bigger issue revolves around finances and marketing.
The financial structure of the league is significantly different than the NBA. Lambert shows that the league revenues have remained flat, and shows a gate revenue that is all but maxed out. The NBA, on the other hand, has seen a significant increase in revenue and also enjoy lucrative television deals. Additionally, the Canadian dollar, according to a Globe and Mail report, may have cost the NHL nearly $200MM in revenue. Though the numbers are from 2014, Fox Sports wrote up a report, along with graphics, that show the stark discrepancy in revenue between the NHL and other major sports.
Where Lambert really hits the point home is how the sport is marketed. It’s no secret that hockey is a niche sport. As parity has reigned during the salary cap era, the differences between a top team and a bottom feeder, while sometimes large, still afford the ability for an upset to occur.
Whether it’s fair or unfair, the lesser known teams in a Stanley Cup Final could be horrendous for the league as well. The idea of a Tampa Bay-San Jose Final this year would have wreaked havoc on ratings. Even though both teams boast high caliber players, they are both “non-traditional” markets that outside of their respective area, would generate little interest. Contrast that with a possible Pittsburgh-Chicago Final and it underscores the issue with the NHL: lack of familiarity in non-established markets.
As Lambert pointed out, Steph Curry jerseys are everywhere and his presence on television is a must see event. Ovechkin? Crosby? McDavid? Toews? Sure, hockey fans know them. But ask the average sports fan where Conor McDavid plays, and you might get a blank stare. Some might struggle to even say who he is.
Until revenues explode and familiarity is bred, superteams, whether they are a good or bad thing, are just not possible with the structure of today’s NHL.
Ducks Sign Jeff Schultz To Two-Way Deal
According to TSN’s Darren Dreger, veteran defenseman Jeff Schultz will try to break back into the NHL with the Anaheim Ducks in 2016-17. The free agent has signed a one-year, two-way deal with the club.
From 2007-2012, Schultz was a mainstay on the Washington Capitals’ back-end, suiting up in 335 contests over the five seasons. In 2009-10 he even garnered some Norris votes as one of the leagues’ best defensemen after putting up a +50 rating and tallying what would be a career high 23 points.
His career has taken a sharp downturn in recent years however, as the former first round pick has only played in 36 NHL games over the past four seasons due to a combination of injury and ineffectiveness. The last year of his contract was bought out by Washington in 2013.
Once a solid contributor at both ends of the rink,Schultz has played well the last two seasons in the American Hockey League, but has only gotten a handful of opportunities in the NHL. This will be one of the 30-year old’s last chances, and he’ll have to fight through a deep, young defense corps to do it.
Capitals Re-Sign Tom Wilson
Washington announced they have re-signed pending restricted free agent Tom Wilson to a two year, $4MM deal. TSN’s Bob McKenzie was first with the report. Wilson will make $1.75MM in 2016-17 and $2.25MM in 2017-18. That sets up his qualifying offer to be $2.25MM in the 2018 offseason.
Wilson was the Capitals’ 1st round pick (16th overall) in the 2012 NHL Entry Draft. Last season, he played in all 82 regular season games, collecting seven goals and 16 assists with a team-high 163 PIMS (more than three times the amount any of of his teammates had) while averaging 12:54 per game. He also finished tenth in the league in hits with a career high 253.
Wilson also added an assist in 12 postseason contests while logging 12:01 per night.
In his career, Wilson has played in 231 games, all with the Caps, scoring 14 goals and 36 assists with 486 PIMS. He should continue to play in Washington’s bottom six while providing plenty of physical play.
Full List of Players Who Did Not Receive a Qualifying Offer
The deadline to make a qualifying offer to a restrict free agent ended at 5pm today. Below is a list of players who did not receive an offer and sorted by team for easy reference. Any player that did not receive a qualifying offer is eligible to be an unrestricted free agent on July 1st.
(as of writing the Toronto Maple Leafs were the only team not to confirm which players received QOs)
Anaheim Ducks
F Matt Bailey, F Brandon Pirri, F Charles Sarault, D Kevin Gagne, and D Martin Gernat.
Arizona Coyotes
F Sergei Plotnikov, , D Philip Samuelsson, F Christian Thomas, D Kevin Connauton, D Jarred Tinordi, D Klas Dahlbeck, and G Niklas Treutle
Boston Bruins
F Landon Ferraro and F Brett Connolly.
Buffalo Sabres
F Alex Guptill, F Colin Jacobs, F Jack Nevins, and Nathan Lieuwen.
Calgary Flames
F Kenny Agostino, F Bill Arnold, F Joe Colborne, F Turner Elson, F Josh Jooris, F Drew Shore, F Bryce Van Brabant, G Joni Ortio, and Kevin Poulin.
Carolina Hurricanes
F Zach Boychuk, F Anthony Camara, F Dane Fox, F Carter Sandlak, F Justin Shugg, D Danny Biega, D Michal Jordan, D Rasmus Rissanen, and G Rasmus Tirronen.
2016 NHL Draft Results
Pro Hockey Rumors will be following and updating every selection of the 2016 NHL Draft. Below are the results of the first round.
Round 1
1. Toronto Maple Leafs: C Auston Matthews (Zurich Lions – SUI)
2. Winnipeg Jets: RW Patrik Laine (Tappara – SM-liiga)
3. Columbus Blue Jackets: LW Pierre-Luc Dubois (Cape Breton – QMJHL)
4. Edmonton Oilers: RW Jesse Puljujarvi (Karpat – SM-liiga)
5. Vancouver Canucks: D Olli Juolevi (London – OHL)
6. Calgary Flames: LW Matthew Tkachuk (London – OHL)
7. Arizona Coyotes: C Clayton Keller (USA NTDP – USHL)
8. Buffalo Sabres: F Alexander Nylander (Mississauga Steelheads – OHL)
9. Montreal Canadiens: D Mikhail Sergachev (Windsor – OHL)
10. Colorado Avalanche: C Tyson Jost (Penticton – BCHL)
11. Ottawa Senators (from New Jersey): C Logan Brown (Windsor – OHL)
12. New Jersey Devils (from Ottawa): C Michael McLeod (Mississauga Steelheads – OHL)
13. Carolina Hurricanes: D Jake Bean (Calgary – WHL)
14. Boston Bruins: D Charlie McAvoy (Boston University – NCAA)
15. Minnesota Wild: C Luke Kunin (Wisconsin – NCAA)
16. Arizona Coyotes (From Detroit): D Jakob Chychrun (Sarnia – OHL)
17. Nashville Predators: D Dante Fabbro (Penticton – BCHL)
18. Winnipeg Jets (From Philadelphia): D Logan Stanley (Windsor – OHL)
19. New York Islanders: LW Kieffer Bellows (US NTDP)
20. Detroit Red Wings (from Arizona via New York Rangers): D Dennis Cholowski (Chilliwack (BCHL)
21. Carolina Hurricanes (from LA Kings): RW Julien Gauthier (Val-d’Or Foreurs – QMJHL
22. Philadelphia Flyers (From Winnipeg via Chicago): C German Rubtsov (Team Russia U-18)
23. Florida Panthers: C Henrik Borgstrom (HIFK – SM-liiga Jr)
24. Anaheim Ducks: LW Max Jones (London – OHL)
25. Dallas Stars: LW Riley Tufte (Blaine – USHSW)
26. St. Louis Blues (From Washington): C Tage Thompson (Connecticut – NCAA)
27. Tampa Bay Lightning: C Brett Howden (Moose Jaw – WHL)
28. Washington Capitals (From St. Louis): D Lucas Johansen (Kelowna – WHL)
29. Boston Bruins (from San Jose): C Trent Frederic (USA U-18 NTDP)
30. Anaheim Ducks (from Pittsburgh via Toronto): C Sam Steel (Regina – WHL)
Draft Snapshots: Draft Pick Trades, Matthews
The Devils and Senators swapped picks in the first round. The Devils dealt the 11th overall pick to Ottawa for their 12th overall pick and 80th overall pick. Ottawa selected C Logan Brown, whose father coaches Ottawa’s OHL team and has family in Ottawa. The Devils used the pick to draft C Michael McLeod.
Other Draft notes:
- The Flyers traded for the Jets 22nd and 36th overall picks while giving up their 18th and 79th overall picks.
- The Capitals dealt their 26th overall pick to St. Louis for their 28th overall pick and 87th overall pick.
- #1 overall pick Auston Matthews was thrilled to be selected by the Maple Leafs, no matter the long road they still have to competing for a Stanley Cup. Matt Larkin from The Hockey News writes that Matthews was “euphoric” on being a Maple Leaf after the Arizona native seemed less than excited following the revelation that the Leafs would pick first. Matthews is the first American to be drafted first overall since Patrick Kane in 2007.