At first glance, it would certainly be reasonable to think that Pheonix Copley’s three-year, $3.3MM extension that he signed with the Capitals back in February would give him some job security. However, NBC Sports Washington’s J.J. Regan suggests that this may not be the case. As Washington looks to trim down their cap issues without making a trade or losing anyone of significance off the roster, swapping out Copley’s $1.1MM AAV for one of their AHL netminders would save them a little bit of space. He also notes that the Caps will likely want to see their top goalie prospect in Ilya Samsonov get a chance at some point this coming season in order to evaluate his readiness with Braden Holtby’s deal expiring at the end of the season. Having Copley pass through waivers makes that easier to do. He may have some stability in terms of his contract but where he plays may ultimately be in the air.
Capitals Rumors
2019 Arbitration Figures And Results
August 6th: All arbitration cases have now been completed. In total, six cases were decided by an arbitrator’s award this year. That number, though seemingly not many, actually presents a 50% increase over last summer and more than the past two off-seasons combined. Of those six decisions, the teams and players received the favorable decision an even three times apiece, and each award landed within $150K of the midpoint. All things considered, there were few surprises in arbitration, even though there were more awards than expected. Now the question is where the relationships between those teams and players go from here.
Originally published on July 19th: Friday marked the start of the arbitration season in the NHL, with Brock McGinn first scheduled for his hearing with the Carolina Hurricanes. The appointments will come fast and furious after that, with 23 cases left on the books. When we asked our readers how many would actually get to the hearing stage more than 36% of voters thought 3-4 was reasonable, the same number that reached last year.
We know now that at least one will, as Andrew Copp’s agent Kurt Overhardt told Ken Wiebe of the Winnipeg Free Press that their camp will “look forward to” the hearing scheduled for Sunday. Copp and the Jets exchanged figures earlier today. It is important to remember that the two sides can actually work out a deal in the short period after the hearing and before the actual decision is submitted by the arbitrator. For every case except Ville Husso, who the St. Louis Blues took to arbitration, the team involved will be allowed to choose the duration of the contract awarded. They can choose either one or two years, unless the player is only one year away from unrestricted free agency, at which point only a one-year deal is available.
Here we’ll keep track of all the hearings still on the books and the figures submitted. This page will be updated as the numbers come in:
July 20:
Brock McGinn, Carolina Hurricanes – Team: $1.75MM AAV, Player: $2.7MM AAV
Settled: Two years, $2.1MM AAV
July 21:
Andrew Copp, Winnipeg Jets – Team: $1.5MM AAV, Player: $2.9MM AAV
Awarded: Two years, $2.28MM AAV
July 22:
MacKenzie Weegar, Florida Panthers
Settled: One year, $1.6MM AAV
Zach Aston-Reese, Pittsburgh Penguins
Settled: Two years, $1.0MM AAV
Ville Husso, St. Louis Blues (team-elected)
Settled: One year, two-way, $700K AAV
Christian Djoos, Washington Capitals – Team: $800K, Player: $1.9MM
Awarded: One year, $1.25MM AAV
July 23:
Evan Rodrigues, Buffalo Sabres – Team: $1.5MM, Player: $2.65MM
Awarded: One year, $2.0MM AAV
July 24:
Oskar Sundqvist, St. Louis Blues
Settled: Four years, $2.75MM AAV
Neal Pionk, Winnipeg Jets
Settled: Two years, $3.0MM AAV
July 26:
Colton Sissons, Nashville Predators
Settled: Seven years, $2.86MM AAV
July 27:
Sam Bennett, Calgary Flames
Settled: Two years, $2.55MM AAV
July 28:
Mirco Mueller, New Jersey Devils
Settled: One year, $1.4MM AAV
July 29:
David Rittich, Calgary Flames
Settled: Two years, $2.75MM AAV
Pavel Buchnevich, New York Rangers
Settled: Two years, $3.25MM AAV
August 1:
Remi Elie, Buffalo Sabres
Settled: One year, two-way $700K AAV
Chandler Stephenson, Washington Capitals
Settled: One year, $1.05MM
August 2:
Linus Ullmark, Buffalo Sabres – Team: $800K, Player: $2.65MM
Settled: One year, $1.33MM
Will Butcher, New Jersey Devils
Settled: Three years, $3.73MM AAV
August 4:
Jake McCabe, Buffalo Sabres – Team: 1.95MM, Player: $4.3MM
Settled: Two years, $2.85MM AAV
Anton Forsberg, Carolina Hurricanes – Team: $700K/$70K, Player: $833K
Awarded: One year, $775K AAV
Sheldon Dries, Colorado Avalanche
Settled: One year, two-way $735K AAV
Rocco Grimaldi, Nashville Predators – Team: $700K/$70K, Player $1.275MM
Awarded: One year, $1MM
Joel Edmundson, St. Louis Blues – Team: $2.3MM, Player $4.2MM
Awarded: One year, $3.1MM
Metropolitan Notes: Jones & Werenski, Capitals Goalies, Shattenkirk
After years of being paired together, Seth Jones and Zach Werenski saw some time apart. Over a three year period, Jones and Werenski spent 75 percent of their 5-on-5 time together and were almost inseparable. The two star defenseman stayed together on the top pairing line. However, that changed a bit last year. Jones and Werenski were split up sometimes as the two ended up spending just 57.7 percent of the time as Werenski, who was working on his defensive game, was often paired with Ryan Murray or David Savard.
The Athletic’s Alison Lukan (subscription required) analyzes whether the pair should be kept together or the split should finally be made and have each one of them on separate defensive lines. She writes that while they were more successful when they were together, the Jones and Murray combination and the Werenski and Savard combinations were among the top three combinations in terms of getting good chances and converting. While the split up likely affected Jones and Werenski’s goal-scoring last season, it created a deeper defense overall.
However, Lukan does note that Werenski’s defensive numbers actually dropped last season when not playing alongside Jones and considering that’s his weakness, Columbus might have be better off keeping the pair together. The Blue Jackets overall defense is improving and the combination of Murray and Markus Nutivaara actually put up solid numbers together as well and might serve the team even better as the second pairing. Of course, no one really knows what head coach John Tortorella is thinking.
- In his most recent mailbag series, The Athletic’s Tarik El-Bashir (subscription required) comments on the goaltending depth in the Washington Capitals’ system. The team has a number of young goaltenders, including Ilya Samsonov, who they hope is the goaltender of the future. The team also houses Pheonix Copley and AHL All-Star Vitek Vanecek. However, El-Bashir points out that trading away some of their goaltending depth is extremely unlikely considering the team doesn’t know what will happen with current starter Braden Holtby, who will be an unrestricted free agent next season. With starting goaltender salaries beginning to skyrocket, it seems unlikely the team would be able to retain him, but if the Capitals win another Stanley Cup title this year, then things might change. Of course if Holtby does leave, then is Samsonov ready? If not, then the team might have to turn to Copley or Vanecek or even look elsewhere.
- Chris Ryan of NJ.com writes that it’s highly unlikely that the New Jersey Devils consider signing defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk, who became a free agent after the New York Rangers bought him out last week. The Devils courted back in 2017 when Shattenkirk was the top defensive free agent and might be inclined to add him once again. However, considering the changes in the last two years, there is little need to bring Shattenkirk in. In those two years, the team has brought in P.K. Subban, Sami Vatanen, and Will Butcher as well as drafted Ty Smith and seen the emergence of Damon Severson.
Christian Djoos Is An Unlikely Trade Candidate
The one-year, $1.25MM contract that Capitals defenseman Christian Djoos received from an arbitrator came in a little higher than the team hoped given their current salary cap situation. That has led some to speculate that Washington may look to move the blueliner but NBC Sports Washington’s J.J. Regan cautions that it’s an unlikely scenario. The 24-year-old is coming off of a tough injury-plagued season so his trade value isn’t particularly high at the moment. If the Caps decide to try to waive Djoos to bury most of that contract in the minors (something they might do with recently re-signed center Chandler Stephenson), any interested team may simply wait to pick him up for free over parting with a negligible asset to get him.
Eastern Notes: McAvoy, Carlo, Kreider, Samsonov
There are quite a few restricted free agents that still haven’t been signed yet, but the Boston Bruins still have two of them in defensemen Charlie McAvoy and Brandon Carlo and the Boston Globe’s Matt Porter suggests that fans may have to sit through not seeing them at training camp and potentially even having them sit out like William Nylander did last year with the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Porter suggests that McAvoy could be looking for similar money to that of Jacob Trouba, who signed with the New York Rangers for seven years at $8MM AAV. However, a holdout might be necessary because Trouba had the benefit of an arbitration hearing deadline and had all the leverage on his side. That isn’t necessarily the case with McAvoy who doesn’t have arbitration rights and whose only leverage would be holding out. Carlo, an improving defenseman, could be looking for $4MM per season in a long-term deal.
Regardless, the Bruins already tight against the cap for the next few years, need to make sure they don’t overpay for the two defensemen, which might require the team to unload another player down the road.
- In his Saturday’s Slapshots column, New York Post’s Larry Brooks mentions that the New York Rangers and Chris Kreider’s agent Matt Keator, haven’t had a conversation yet about what it would take to sign the 28-year-old to a long-term contract. While Brooks believes that is strange that both sides haven’t spoken yet, he believes that both sides are content to go into the season with Kreider in the last year of his current contract. The Rangers would be hard-pressed to sign Kreider to a long-term deal after handing out long-term deals to Artemi Panarin and Trouba and a number of talented young forwards who will eventually have to be paid down the road as well.
- With a tumultuous offseason ahead for the Washington Capitals in the goaltending category with Braden Holtby expected to become an unrestricted free agent, The Athletic’s Tarik El-Bashir (subscription required) writes in a mailbag column that he wouldn’t be surprised if star goaltending prospect Ilya Samsonov could win the backup goaltending job in training camp. It would help the team determine whether the 22-year-old might be ready to take over as the team’s starting goaltender in 2020-21. Samsonov had an up-and-down first season in North America last season, putting up a .898 save percentage in 37 games with the Hershey Bears, but was much more impressive in the second half. However, there is no guarantee that he is ready for a back-up NHL role yet, so don’t count out Pheonix Copley.
Metropolitan Notes: Namestnikov, Brown, Werenski, Siegenthaler, Malkin
While a buyout of one of the New York Rangers defensemen seems like a popular option to fix the fact that the team is currently projected to be over the salary cap after New York paid out $19.65MM AAV for both Artemi Panarin and Jacob Trouba, there are still other options that might make even more sense.
With plenty of rumors that New York could choose to buyout Kevin Shattenkirk, Brendan Smith or Marc Staal when their buyout window opens on Monday, The Athletic’s Rick Carpiniello (subscription required) writes that the team might be better off saving their future cap room from carrying extra dead weight. One way to do that is move forward Vladislav Namestnikov, who carries a $4MM cap hit this year before becoming a unrestricted free agent. While teams might have shown little interest in the 26-year-old who scored just 11 goals last season, one better option would be to retain some of his salary, which could easily make him a more attractive trade option and wouldn’t cost the team future cap costs. Namestnikov is only one year removed from a 22-goal, 48-point season.
- Sticking with the Rangers, the team announced the passing of former great Arnie Brown Saturday. The defenseman died at the age of 77, but played a total of 12 seasons for five different teams, but made his mark with New York after playing seven seasons (from 1964-1971) for the franchise and is listed among the top 100 players in Rangers history. Brown played 681 games over the course of his career, posting 44 goals and 185 points. Everyone at PHR wishes the best for the family and friends of Brown at this time.
- The Columbus Dispatch’s Michael Arace writes that little progress has been made between the Columbus Blue Jackets and restricted free agent Zach Werenski. While the team hopes that it can lock up the 22-year-old to a long-term deal, there is always the possibility that Werenski could be a training camp holdout if the two sides can’t find an equitable arrangement. Blue Jackets fans have already seen that as several players, including Josh Anderson and Ryan Johansen have done that in past seasons. Werenski has proven to be a top pairing defenseman, having tallied 38 goals and 128 points over the course of three seasons. With key losses this offseason of Panarin, Sergei Bobrovsky and Matt Duchene, the team could benefit if they can convince Werenski to sign long-term.
- After signing defenseman Christian Djoos and forward Chandler Stephenson to one-year deals last week, the Washington Capitals once again find themselves over the salary cap by $1.3MM. While one option to reduce their cap hit would be to send Jonas Siegenthaler to the AHL like the team did last year, NBC Sports Washington’s J.J. Regan writes that won’t be possible. While Siegenthaler is still waiver exempt, the team only has seven NHL defensemen under contract and even if they felt that Tyler Lewington could be the team’s seventh defenseman, he wouldn’t save the team a significant amount of money to make the move worth it. Unfortunately for general manager Brian MacLellan, the team will have to make a different move this year to get under the cap.
- The Athletic’s Scott Burnside (subscription required) looks at candidates who could bounce back from disappointing seasons and marks Pittsburgh Penguins center Evgeni Malkin as a player who should return to his 90-point ways. The 32-year-old went from a 42-goal season in 2017-18 to half that total last year (21 goals) and went from 98 points to 72. Burnside writes that the team will need more goal scoring after losing Phil Kessel and Malkin will be looked to even more to fill that gap.
Capitals To Speak To Nicklas Backstrom And Braden Holtby Next Month To Discuss Their Future Plans
- Although the Capitals need to clear up a bit of salary cap space over the next couple of months, that’s not going to be their only priority the rest of this offseason. Tarik El-Bashir of The Athletic notes (subscription required) that GM Brian MacLellan plans to sit down with center Nicklas Backstrom and goaltender Braden Holtby next month to begin the process of discussing their futures with the team beyond 2019-20. Both players are slated to become unrestricted free agents next summer and will be looking for raises on their current deals ($6.7MM for Backstrom, $6.1MM for Holtby). With Washington’s tight salary cap situation, they may not be able to afford to give both the pay increases they may be seeking.
Capitals Re-Sign Chandler Stephenson
7/27: Washington has confirmed the terms of the contract, highlighting his strong play in the postseason this year in their press release. This could be to build up excitement for a player the team feels still has room to grow into a regular contributor or, as some have speculated, could be a sales tactic for a player who may be on the chopping block for the cap-strapped Capitals.
7/26: The Capitals have avoided salary arbitration with winger Chandler Stephenson. CapFriendly reports that Washington has signed him to a one-year, $1.05MM contract. He was previously scheduled to go for his hearing on August 1st.
The 25-year-old was once again in Washington’s rotation of fourth line players last season. He played in 64 games, recording five goals and six assists while averaging 12:07 per night. Stephenson was a fixture on their penalty kill when he was in the lineup, logging 1:46 per game, good for the fourth-most among Capital forwards. He also suited up in six of their seven postseason contests where he was held off the scoresheet.
With the Caps losing a bit of depth over the summer, Stephenson should have a chance to compete for a full-time roster spot in training camp which would go a long way towards boosting his value for next summer where he will once again be a restricted free agent with salary arbitration rights.
Washington now has some work to do when it comes to the salary cap. They presently sit roughly $1.3MM over the Upper Limit (per CapFriendly) though they could cut into that deficit by carrying a roster size less than the maximum of 23. As Stephenson was their final arbitration case, they’ll have a 48-hour buyout window open up on Monday although with the minimum salary requirement for a buyout being $3.45MM, it’s quite unlikely that they’ll be going that route. Instead, GM Brian MacLellan will likely look to try to make a small trade to free up some cap room over the next couple of months.
Arbitration Notes: Departures, Capitals, Sabres
It’s no secret that salary arbitration is not a friendly process. If a player does make it all the way through the hearing, that means that they’ve sat through a presentation by their own team about just how bad they are compared to other similar players. While teams and players often use the threat of the unknown of an arbitrator’s decision to move contract talks along, the potential unpleasantness of a hearing is also plenty of motivation to come to terms. Case in point: Colorado’s Sheldon Dries, who today settled on a one-year, two-way contract worth $735K. Dries’ contract comes in just $35K above the absolute worst possible outcome in an arbitration hearing, yet he opted not to argue his case in hopes of a better outcome. Why? Likely to avoid the breakdown in a relationship between he and the Avalanche if the hearing got ugly. It’s more common than it may seem – The Athletic’s Craig Custance crunched the numbers and found that the vast majority of players who go through an arbitration hearing end up leaving that team, one way or another.
Over the past ten years, 27 players have gone into a hearing. Not all of those players required an arbitrator’s award, but any resulting settlements still came after the unfortunate back-and-forth. Of those 27 players, Custance found that 14 were on new teams within a year and 21 were on new teams within three years. All of last summer’s cases – Winnipeg’s Jacob Trouba, Ottawa’s Cody Ceci, Calgary’s Brett Kulak, and Dallas’ Gemel Smith – are on new teams now. In fact, of the 27 players who have reached a hearing since 2009, no player before 2015 remains on the team that the faced off with and only four players since still remain on good terms with their club: Nashville’s Craig Smith and Viktor Arvidsson, Washington’s Braden Holtby, and Vegas’ Nate Schmidt. This all goes to show that arbitration can be a dangerous method of negotiating for teams, even if the goal is to settle before an arbitrator’s decision. The numbers convincingly imply that an arbitration hearing is the death knell for a player’s relationship with his team. As far as this off-season goes, this analysis doesn’t bode well for Andrew Copp and the Jets, Christian Djoos and the Capitals, and Evan Rodrigues and the Sabres, all of whom not only went to hearings already this summer, but whose awards all favored the team more so than the player. With ten potential cases still to go, there could be even more players who one day look back at this off-season as the beginning of the end.
- The Capitals may very well end up back in front of an arbitrator before long, with a case against forward Chandler Stephenson scheduled for August 1st. Although the decision in the Djoos case – a $1.25MM award against a $1.35MM midpoint – favored the team, it still puts them in a difficult situation regarding the salary cap and eliminates some hope that a resolution with Stephenson could come prior to a hearing. Washington is currently more than $300K over the salary cap ceiling after signing Djoos. While young defenseman Jonas Siegenthaler can be returned to the AHL without the threat of waivers for a $714K drop to get under the cap, it would leave the Capitals with just six defensemen. All of Washington’s 14 NHL forwards, including Stephenson, would be subject to waivers, although the team would likely want to carry that many forwards anyway. It’s a difficult conundrum not made any easier by the unknown of Stephenson’s contract either. The 25-year-old forward recorded 18 points in 67 games in 2017-18 and another 11 points in 62 games this past season. He will likely seek a salary of $1MM or more, a number that Washington simply cannot palate. Asked who the team would choose if faced with a choice between trading away Djoos or Stephenson to open up cap space and roster flexibility, NBC Sports’ J.J. Regan did not hesitate to say that Stephenson would be the one dealt. Defense is in short supply for the Capitals and Djoos is a proven starter. Stephenson on the other hand would be an expendable piece in a deep forward corps. It may not matter though, as moving Stephenson alone is unlikely to be a sufficient answer to Washington’s cap troubles.
- If you think the Capitals having two cases is bad, wait until you hear about the Sabres. Like Washington, Buffalo has already been through one hearing this summer with forward Evan Rodrigues, landing a $2MM award against a $2.075MM midpoint. It was somewhat of a surprising decision and may have given GM Jason Botterill and company some confidence moving forward. That could wind up being a problem for all parties involved, as three of the remaining ten scheduled cases are also Sabres players: forward Remi Elie, goalie Linus Ullmark, and defenseman Jake McCabe. If Buffalo goes to hearing with even one more of these players, never mind all three, it could be a bad look for the organization and could cause a breakdown in numerous player relationships. However, if the team continues to win their arbitration battles, it would be a major help this season, as the team has just over $3MM in cap space left to sign the trio. It’s a long-term risk for a short-term gain for the Sabres.
Matt Moulson Signs AHL Contract With Hershey Bears
Former NHL forward Matt Moulson has decided on a new destination to continue his playing career, this time signing a one-year AHL contract with the Hershey Bears. The 35-year old has spent the last two seasons with the Ontario Reign where he has still proven to be an elite offensive force at the AHL level.
Moulson ended up back in the AHL after the Buffalo Sabres decided to waive him in the 2017-18 season after he failed to record a single point in 14 games. He never did suit up for the Sabres’ affiliate though, as he was instead loaned to the Kings’ minor league team where he and his wife could be closer to family—he and Jonathan Quick married the daughters of former NHL player Mike Backman. In Ontario, Moulson showed just why he was once considered one of the better scoring wingers in the NHL, as he recorded 108 points in 117 regular season games.
Now for Hershey, Moulson can once again provide some experience and scoring touch to an organization that expects to compete. The Bears went 43-25-8 last season and were led by Michael Sgarbossa and Riley Barber offensively, the latter having already moved on to the Montreal organization this summer. Moulson can’t be recalled by the Washington Capitals without signing an NHL contract and passing through waivers, meaning he will likely be in the AHL all year. That’s a pretty big pay cut, as Moulson made $8MM over the last two seasons despite playing only 14 games for the Sabres.
The veteran winger scored 369 points in 650 NHL games, including three straight seasons of at least 30 goals while playing with the New York Islanders.