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Examining Maple Leafs Bargain Bin Free Agent Targets

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Joshua Kloke of The Athletic wrote an article today highlighting seven bargain bin free agent targets that could help the Toronto Maple Leafs next season. The Maple Leafs currently sit about $2MM over the salary cap despite putting Jake Muzzin and Matt Murray on LTIR for next year, making it difficult to imagine Toronto doing much shopping in free agency unless they sign two-way deals or move out a contract. The names on the list were interesting, and certainly, they reflect the Maple Leafs’ salary cap predicament.

The most interesting name on Kloke’s list was three-time Stanley Cup champion Jonathan Toews. Much speculation has been made this off-season about the future of Toews as he has battled health issues the past few seasons and may be leaning towards retirement. Toews was effective last year, albeit in limited action as he dressed in just 53 games and put up 15 goals and 16 assists. The former captain of the Chicago Blackhawks doesn’t have much to play for at this point, but if he were to choose the Maple Leafs as a destination, he could slide into a similar role that Jason Spezza and Joe Thornton had when they arrived in Toronto a few years ago. Toews could be a very effective fourth-line center for Toronto even at this point in his career, but one must wonder if wants to.

Zach Aston-Reese was another name on the list and is coming off a season in which he scored a career-high 10 goals with Toronto. By all accounts, Aston-Reese was well-liked in Toronto and was effective for them in a fourth-line role. We profiled the Staten Island, New York native just days ago in our Free Agent Profile series and highlighted that the 28-year-old has some of the best defensive analytics in the league but offers very little offensively.

Another name on the list was a young reclamation project and that is 25-year-old Jesse Puljujarvi. The right-winger is coming off a very disappointing season in which he scored just five goals and was dumped by the Edmonton Oilers in a cap-cutting move last year. Puljujarvi has been a disappointment in his young career after getting drafted fourth overall in 2016. He has just 51 goals and 63 assists in 334 NHL games but is just a year removed from a 36-point season in 2021-22. The Maple Leafs would probably be a good landing spot for Puljujarvi as he could play in more of a sheltered role in Toronto and wouldn’t be relied upon to provide much offence. On the flip side of that, he struggled to play with skilled players like Connor McDavid, which leads to speculation about whether he’d be able to play with any of Toronto’s skilled forwards.

The most realistic target for the Maple Leafs on the list was center Derick Brassard. Brassard entered last season on a professional tryout with the Ottawa Senators and put up decent numbers in limited playing time. The 35-year-old had 13 goals and 10 assists in 62 games while averaging just 12 minutes of ice time per game. It’s possible that Brassard might also elect to retire, but he did express a desire to keep playing at the end of last year. He also enjoyed playing closer to home having grown up in Hull, Quebec, which is just across the river from Ottawa. Should Brassard want to stay close to family, Toronto would make sense. From the Maple Leafs’ perspective, there is no harm in bringing in a veteran like Brassard on a one-year deal for the league minimum. He would give them a scoring option in the bottom six who can fill in at center, and they could bury his contract in the minors without penalty should things not work out.

The other names on Kloke’s list were defensemen Ethan Bear and Scott Harrington, as well as forward Sam Gagner. Harrington is a former Maple Leaf and could offer some depth on the backend, while Bear is expected to miss a significant chunk of the year and would be a mid-season addition. Gagner could offer the Leafs some depth scoring on the fourth line and is close with John Taveres from their days playing in London. Perhaps a return home could be possible for the 33-year-old Gagner.

Toronto Maple Leafs Re-Sign Nicholas Abruzzese

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The Toronto Maple Leafs have re-signed forward Nicholas Abruzzese to a two-year, two-way contract extension, per a team announcement Monday morning. The deal’s average annual value is $775K, and PuckPedia confirms the full breakdown of his contract:

2023-24: $775K NHL salary, $175K minors salary
2024-25: $775K NHL salary, $250K minors salary, $350K guaranteed salary

This is Abruzzese’s second NHL contract after signing a two-year entry-level pact with the Leafs in March last year. The 24-year-old was a restricted free agent, Toronto’s last remaining unsigned player of the type.

After spending two fruitful collegiate campaigns with Harvard, Abruzzese had a solid first full pro season last year. Toronto’s fourth-round pick in 2019 has also gotten a cup of coffee in the NHL over the previous year and a half, posting a goal and two assists in 11 games (including two assists in two games to finish the 2022-23 campaign). His AHL stats were strong, posting 16 goals and 48 points in 69 games with the Toronto Marlies before going on a tear in the postseason, when he registered seven points in seven outings.

Abruzzese seems unlikely to make Toronto’s opening night roster, however. Pontus Holmberg has more experience in the NHL (he played 37 games last year) and likely has a leg up on a fourth-line center role to start the season. That’s not to say Abruzzese won’t get any NHL looks, though. It wouldn’t surprise many to see him get more than the two games he received last season, and he’ll be in the first tier of potential call-ups to the Maple Leafs from the Marlies, along with other prospects in their early 20s such as Alex Steeves and Nicholas Robertson (if he doesn’t make the Leafs out of camp).

The New York-born center will still have a year remaining before he’s eligible for unrestricted free agency when his deal expires in 2025, meaning he’ll still be an RFA in two years. Unlike this summer, he’ll be eligible for arbitration at that time.

Maple Leafs’ Rodion Amirov Reportedly Making Progress In Cancer Recovery

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One of the scariest pieces of NHL news in recent memory came across the wire in February 2022, when then-Toronto Maple Leafs general manager Kyle Dubas revealed that 2020 first-round pick Rodion Amirov had been diagnosed with a brain tumor. The 21-year-old winger has not played hockey since and continues on a long road to what is hopefully a full recovery.

There hasn’t been much news on Amirov’s health since the end of last year when Amirov came to Toronto to attend the team’s Hockey Fights Cancer night in November but returned to Russia to continue treatment shortly after and could not train. At the time, it was viewed as a setback in his recovery – Amirov had said in an interview earlier that summer he was hoping to return to the ice by that time.

However, there is some positive news regarding the young forward’s health today. Rinat Bashirov, the director of sport for Amirov’s KHL team, Salavat Yulaev Ufa, told Russian outlet Sport-Express that there’s a “positive trend” in Amirov’s recovery, but he’s continuing treatment. According to Bashirov (albeit a translated quote), Ufa believes Amirov will return to the ice at some point, although there’s no clear timeline.

Amirov reportedly signed a one-year contract extension with Ufa earlier this summer, allowing him to remain closely tied with the club and pursue treatment with their guidance. He also remains under contract with the Maple Leafs, although his three-year, entry-level contract expires next summer.

PHR extends its best wishes for Amirov’s long-term health and positive recovery.

$13.5MM AAV For Auston Matthews On His Next Deal?

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For a while now, there has been plenty of speculation that Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews intends to set a new benchmark for the highest AAV when he signs his next contract.  In a recent appearance on Sportsnet 590 (audio link), Nick Kypreos suggested that the two sides are believed to be in agreement on a cap hit at or around $13.5MM which would come in well above Nathan MacKinnon’s $12.6MM price tag.  At this point, the discussions between the two sides are focused on term.  Matthews took a five-year deal off his entry-level contract instead of a max-term agreement and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him take a shorter-term pact again with an eye on landing one more significant contract down the road.

Examining Toronto’s Further Cap-Cutting Options

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While today’s news that the Maple Leafs would be placing goaltender Matt Murray on LTIR to start the season helps to alleviate Toronto’s salary cap situation, they still have some work to do.  Using CapFriendly’s numbers, they still sit a little more than $2MM above the Upper Limit of the salary cap (even with Jake Muzzin being LTIR-bound himself) which means they have some paring down to do.

The recent arbitration award to Ilya Samsonov has opened up a second buyout window that they can utilize within the next 48 hours.  However, there are specific rules in place as to who can be bought out in this second window.  The player must make at least $4MM and have been on the roster last season.  Most of the other Toronto players that meet the criteria (and there aren’t many) have a zero percent chance of being bought out.

One possible exception is defenseman T.J. Brodie.  While they certainly wouldn’t want to part with the 33-year-old, the back-loaded structure of his contract would actually see the Maple Leafs clear the full $5MM AAV off the books for next season, clearing that gap and actually giving them some flexibility to add.  On the flip side, it would add $2.5MM onto the books for 2024-25 which certainly isn’t ideal with Auston Matthews and William Nylander needing pricey new deals next summer.  Speculatively, if they were open to parting with Brodie, a trade with 50% retention would free up $2.5MM in cap room and could yield a positive-value return, even in a market that doesn’t have a lot of financial wiggle room.

Assuming that’s not a route Toronto wants to take, let’s move on to some of the smaller cost-cutting options, sticking with the defense first.  Conor Timmins has a two-year deal that begins next season, one that carries a $1.1MM AAV.  While it’s generally viewed as bad form to trade a player that soon after signing an extension, Treliving wasn’t the one that gave him that deal.  Even if a trade option isn’t available, the contract can be fully buried in the minors without a lingering cap charge.  That might be their best option, actually, allowing them to keep Timmins in the organization a little longer and if another LTIR-eligible injury arises, he could then be brought up.

However, if head coach Sheldon Keefe wants to hold onto Timmins in the NHL, then Timothy Liljegren could become a cost-cutting candidate.  Signed for a reasonable $1.4MM next season, the 24-year-old has shown enough that they could get a solid return for his services although it would take another perceived part of their long-term plans out of the system, joining Rasmus Sandin who was moved at the deadline last season.

If Toronto parts with Brodie, it becomes much less likely that they’ll do something with Timmins or Liljegren as they’ll need them in the lineup on a regular basis.

Up front, there are presently 14 forwards on their projected roster.  They only need 12 so some savings can come from here.  Nicholas Robertson is coming off another shoulder injury and is waiver-exempt so his $797K is an easy one to pare down.

The other one isn’t as easy.  Sam Lafferty ($1.15MM) could be a luxury they could no longer afford and his contract could be fully buried in the minors if he was to clear waivers.  With the year he had, there could be a taker in training camp but with several capable role players still unsigned, his trade value right now would be limited.  Dylan Gambrell ($750K) is someone who might pass through unclaimed but he’d yield the fewest cap savings.  Pontus Holmberg ($800K) and Matthew Knies ($925K) are waiver-exempt and would save a bit more money than Gambrell but in a perfect world, they’re both in the opening lineup.

The other possible cap casualty could be winger Calle Jarnkrok.  At $2.1MM, his cap hit is hardly above market value but it might be a value that they can’t afford anymore while moving him outright would get them back into compliance.  However, the trade market for him might not be the best right now with other bottom-six players available in free agency and not necessarily needing the three years that Jarnkrok has left on his deal.

As you can see, there are certainly multiple paths that the Maple Leafs can take to get compliant.  But one way or the other, they will need to either part with some serviceable veterans or carry a minimum-sized roster to get there.  Treliving has added some pieces this summer including veterans John Klingberg, Tyler Bertuzzi, and Max Domi but some subtraction should now be coming.

Maple Leafs To Place Matt Murray On LTIR

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The Toronto Maple Leafs have announced that they will be placing goaltender Matt Murray on the LTIR prior to the start of the 2023-24 season. No details on Murray’s injury were provided in the release, which will surely lead to a lot of speculation in the coming days. With Murray joining Jake Muzzin on LTIR, the Maple Leafs will remain $2.1MM over the salary cap, meaning that they will need to do some cap gymnastics in the coming weeks to try and get under the $83.5MM salary cap by October.

Murray’s first season in Toronto was a difficult one for the former two-time Stanley Cup champion as he battled inconsistency and injuries once again. The Thunder Bay, Ontario native hasn’t been able to steady his game or remain in the net since his time with the Pittsburgh Penguins. Murray was dealt by the Penguins to the Ottawa Senators in October 2020 and quickly signed a four-year extension worth $24MM. The deal was heavily criticized at the time as being too rich and too long for a goaltender that had struggled to stay healthy and consistent.

The Senators were then forced into a cap dump last summer as they traded Murray to the Maple Leafs along with two draft picks for future considerations. Trading for Murray was a good idea in theory from former general manager Kyle Dubas, however, in reality, the deal never worked out for Toronto as Murray was unable to bounce back or stay healthy. Murray dressed in just 26 games going 14-8-2 with a 3.01 goals-against average and a .903 save percentage.

The move will effectively end any talks of a buyout, which is ultimately the best outcome for the player and team. Matt Murray will retain his entire $8MM salary for the upcoming season and the Leafs will be able to use the entire $4.7MM of the cap space that would have been allocated to Murray.

It is quite the fall from grace for a netminder who looked like a budding superstar just six years ago. Murray won back-to-back Stanley Cups with the Pittsburgh Penguins as a rookie and looked like he was the future of the Penguins when the team moved on from franchise icon Marc-Andre Fleury. However, Murray’s career began to derail a short time later due to multiple injuries and inconsistent play and since then he has been unable to right the ship.

AHL Notes: Akhtiamov, Empey, Callin

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Sporting a solid goaltending trio of Joseph Woll, Erik Kallgren, and Keith Petruzzelli, last season, there were some soft expectations that goaltender Artur Akhtyamov would be making the move to North America to join the Toronto Marlies. Drafted in the fourth round of the 2020 NHL Draft, Akhtyamov impressed in the VHL last season, leading the Toronto Maple Leafs to sign the young goalie to a three-year, $2.55MM entry-level contract.

Instead, it appears that Toronto believes that Akhtyamov could use more seasoning overseas, and will be spending the 2023-24 season on loan with Ak Bars Kazan of the Kontinental Hockey League (Tweet Link). There will be a lot of pressure on Akhtyamov to join Ak Bars, as they recently won the regular season title of top team in the league’s Eastern Conference, and made it to Game Seven of the Gagarin Cup Finals.

Playing for Neftyanik Almetievsk of the VHL last season, Akhtyamov accrued a 20-12-6 record, posting a .943 SV% and a 1.74 GAA in 39 games. He also managed to play in six Petrov Cup playoff games, managing a .952 SV% and a 1.53 GAA. With seemingly nothing left to prove in the minor league levels in Russia, the Maple Leafs are hoping that Akhtyamov can build on his recent success, and become an option for them in the net shortly.

Other notes:

  • Playing primarily with the Tucson Roadrunners for the last several seasons, veteran forward Tyson Empey will be making the move to Pennsylvania (Link). Now joining the Hershey Bears of the AHL, Empey will now become a part of their repeat effort for the Calder Cup next season. Playing in 79 games across two years in the Arizona Coyotes system, Empey has four goals and 11 assists all time, but has also accrued 127 PIMs in that time as well. Taking into account his play in the AHL over his career, it is reasonable to assume Empey will be lower on the depth chart in Hershey and may see himself become an extra forward altogether.
  • The Springfield Thunderbirds (St.Louis Blues AHL affiliate) announced today they have re-signed Drew Callin for the 2023-24 AHL season. Last year, Callin became a serviceable depth piece for the Thunderbirds, scoring eight goals and nine points in 67 games played. He did manage one pointless playoff game, as Springfield was quickly ousted by the Hartford Wolf Pack in the First Round of the 2023 Calder Cup playoffs. A long-time veteran of the ECHL, Callin will now continue his career with the only AHL team he has ever known.

 

Ilya Samsonov Contract Settled Via Arbitration

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Toronto Maple Leafs netminder Ilya Samsonov has received a $3.55MM award (one-year) in his arbitration case, according to The Athletic’s James Mirtle. Samsonov had filed for $4.9MM, while the Maple Leafs had filed for $2.4MM.

This award comes just under the mid-point between the two parties’ filings and is just a little bit less than the $3.75MM we projected in our detailed breakdown of Samsonov’s arbitration case.

The Maple Leafs don’t have much cap space to work with, especially after signing players such as Tyler Bertuzzi, Max Domi, John Klingberg, and Ryan Reaves to NHL deals this summer.

That’s why they were likely hoping Samsonov’s deal would fall closer to their filing, though those hopes may have been a bit optimistic given Samsonov’s performance.

The 26-year-old 2015 first-rounder made the most of his one-year change-of-scenery deal from last summer, winning the number-one job in head coach Sheldon Keefe’s crease.

In 42 games he went 27-10-5 with a .919 save percentage and 2.33 goals-against-average. He even helped Toronto to the playoff series victory they’d long been aching for, his 31-save performance in Game Six against Tampa Bay leading the way.

With this decision made, the most important and valuable thing the Maple Leafs have gained is cost certainty. They now know exactly what their expected tandem of Samsonov and Joseph Woll will cost them next season, which will help guide what they do moving forward in the offseason.

They still have Matt Murray on their books at a $4.687MM cap hit, and are likely to pursue avenues to remove Murray’s deal from their cap sheet. A 72-hour buyout window will open for the team to utilize, and buying out Murray would reduce Murray’s cap hit to just $675.5k for next season at a cost of $2MM in dead money in 2024-25.

They could also elect to try to trade Murray, though the modified 10-team no-trade clause he possesses on his contract could make finding a trade at this stage of the offseason difficult.

For Samsonov, this contract is a compromise between what he filed for and what the Maple Leafs wanted to pay. It’s more of an opportunity than anything else, as he’s set himself up to hit unrestricted free agency next summer. If he can have another strong season between the pipes in Toronto, he may set himself up to be the top UFA goalie on the market behind Connor Hellebuyck.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Toronto Maple Leafs Hire Guy Boucher, Mike Van Ryn

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The Toronto Maple Leafs have hired two coaches to head coach Sheldon Keefe’s staff: former Ottawa Senators and Tampa Bay Lightning head coach Guy Boucher, and former St. Louis Blues assistant coach Mike Van Ryn.

In Boucher, the Maple Leafs have added a coach with significant experience running an NHL bench. Although Boucher never coached a fourth season in any of his stops as a bench boss, even at the junior level, he could be considered a serial winner who managed to go on a long playoff run in every place he coached.

In his final season in the QMJHL, Boucher won 54 of 68 games with the Drummondville Voltigeurs and a league title. In his one season with the AHL’s Hamilton Bulldogs, Boucher went 52-17-11 and got to the third round of the Calder Cup playoffs.

In the NHL, Boucher’s Lightning team nearly beat the eventual champion Boston Bruins in the Eastern Conference Final, falling just short in a Game Seven.

Boucher’s SC Bern team in 2014-15 made it to the second round of the Swiss NL playoffs, and then Boucher’s Ottawa Senators went on a miracle run in his very first season there, coming one goal short of dethroning the defending champion Pittsburgh Penguins and reaching the Senators’ first cup final since 2007.

Sure, it must be noted that at each of Boucher’s NHL stops, the wheels fell off almost immediately after he went on his initial long playoff run. And given how much Boucher relied on his signature 1-3-1 defensive system, something he is highly unlikely to be able to deploy as Keefe’s assistant, one wonders if he’s going to be at his most valuable in this role. But seeing as Toronto is desperate to immediately go on the type of long playoff run Boucher has specialized in, it’s easy to see why they’ve targeted him.

As for Van Ryn, he’s also got the type of playoff experience behind the bench the Maple Leafs are hoping will translate to their own on-ice results. Van Ryn won a Stanley Cup with St. Louis in his very first season there, and does have prior experience coaching in Ontario as he spent three seasons with the OHL’s Kitchener Rangers, including one as head coach.

Per The Hockey News’ David Alter, Boucher will run the Maple Leafs’ power play while Van Ryn runs the team’s defense, with assistance from Dean Chynoweth, who will be in charge of the penalty kill.

The hiring of the two men completes Keefe’s coaching staff, which already boasts assistants Chynoweth and Manny Malhotra, goaltending coach Curtis Sanford, and video coaches Jordan Bean and Sam Kim.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Arbitration Breakdown: Ilya Samsonov

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While many players who elected salary arbitration have already settled with their teams, several players are still headed toward hearings, which start tomorrow with the Chicago Blackhawks and forward Philipp Kurashev. Slated for Friday, though, is one of the more intriguing cases still unresolved: Toronto Maple Leafs netminder Ilya Samsonov.

Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported last night that the two sides are still actively working on a short-term deal, which could get done over the next 48 hours and avoid going to arbitration. Arbitration is usually something teams look to avoid, given they’ll have to agree to any deal awarded under the $4.5MM mark per season. But in Toronto’s case, it’s a good thing – the team is already over the salary cap even with defenseman Jake Muzzin stashed on long-term injured reserve, meaning certainty around Samsonov’s cap hit next season is crucial for them to know exactly how much space to clear in follow-up moves. They’ll have financial assurance with Samsonov one way or another within the next four days.

Filings

Team: $2.4MM
Player: $4.9MM
Midpoint: $3.65MM

(via Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman)

The Numbers

Last season was, far and away, Samsonov’s best performance to date. A Washington Capitals first-round selection in 2015, Samsonov had shown flashes of strong play during his time in the nation’s capital, especially during his rookie season in 2019-20 when he recorded a 16-6-2 record, .913 save percentage and finished 12th in Calder Trophy voting. After that, things went progressively downhill for the Russian netminder, though, seeing his numbers dip far below league average as injuries limited his playing time. After posting a relatively poor .896 save percentage with the Capitals in 2021-22, he was surprisingly cut loose from the team entirely, hitting the UFA market at age 25 after Washington didn’t issue him a qualifying offer.

Toronto extended him a one-year, $1.8MM prove-it deal to complete their tandem with Matt Murray, and Samsonov soon took over the de facto starting role for himself after a series of injuries kept Murray out of the crease for much of the season. While depth netminders Erik Kallgren and Joseph Woll also found their way into action, Samsonov started a career-high 40 games last year and put together the highest level of play from him in the NHL, even if he was inconsistent at times.

He may not be in the upper echelon of starting netminders, especially with only one top-flight-level season under his belt. Still, he outdueled countryman Andrei Vasilevskiy just a few months ago and was perhaps the most significant reason Toronto won their first playoff series in nearly two decades. An injury early in the Second Round kept him out of the last few games of playoff action, though.

With Toronto in a tight financial situation and Samsonov not having a proven track record, it makes sense why the Maple Leafs want to go short-term with their current starter. They do have Woll in the pipeline, who’s expected to be the full-time backup next season and could potentially be ready for the starting job in a few years. That said, Toronto would surely like to settle with Samsonov on a two- or three-year deal to solidify consistency in their crease.

Because Samsonov would be eligible for unrestricted free agency in 2024, he can only sign a one-year deal via arbitration – not two. If the two sides want a longer-term deal, they must settle before the hearing.

2022-23 Stats: 42 GP, 27-10-5, 4 SO, 2,476 mins, 2.33 GAA, .919 SV%
Career Stats: 131 GP, 79-32-13, 10 SO, 7,341 mins, 2.65 GAA, .908 SV%

Potential Comparables

Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency, which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used. The contracts below fit within those parameters. Player salaries also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides of this negotiation. 

Vitek Vanecek (Devils) – If you’re looking for the framework of a potential deal, look no further than Samsonov’s former tandem partner in Washington. After two average seasons as a tandem netminder in D.C., Vanecek’s RFA rights were traded to New Jersey last offseason before he signed a three-year, $3.4MM AAV contract with the club. Coming off seasons of 37 and 42 games played and .908 save percentages in both seasons, Vanecek might have had consistency on his side more so than Samsonov, but he hadn’t reached the level Samsonov has at times throughout his young career. The latter is a bit of a unicorn in recent RFA goalie signings, and it makes sense why he’d want more than his ex-teammate, but Vanecek’s deal falls near the midpoint of the two filings.

Alexandar Georgiev (Avalanche) – Just a few days before Vanecek signed a deal with his new team in 2022, Georgiev signed the same contract with the Colorado Avalanche. Georgiev had more experience and was perhaps a more highly-touted solution as a starter than Vanecek, but he was coming off a rough year with the New York Rangers that saw his save percentage dip below the .900 mark. Samsonov’s performance last season was much better than either Vanecek’s or Georgiev’s before they signed their deals, though, something he’ll likely leverage in his hearing to make his case for an AAV in the $3.5-$4.5MM range.

Projection

This is the first arbitration case of the summer where the filing values have been publically exchanged, so it’s a bit more challenging to project a first-of-the-offseason deal, especially when there’s a lack of solid comparables in 2023 from which to compare Samsonov’s situation.

On a one-year deal with the potential to cash in for big money on the UFA market in 2024, though, it seems unlikely the arbitrator would rule significantly in Samsonov’s favor. The filings seem pretty reasonable based on past cases, and they’re positioned to grant Samsonov a deal right around the midpoint of the filings, potentially a bit higher. Expect something in the $3.75MM range on a one-year pact for Samsonov if the two sides don’t settle before Friday’s hearing.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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