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August Free Agency Update: Atlantic Division

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As even most mid-tier free agents are now off the market, it’s a good time to look at how each team has fared on the free agent market this offseason. We’re publishing a list of one-way signings (i.e., likelier to start the season on the NHL roster) by team, per division, to keep you updated on NHL player movement since the new league year began on July 1.

Asterisked players denote a restricted free agent. Double-asterisked players denote the contract starts in the 2024-25 season. First up is the Atlantic Division:

Boston Bruins

*G Jeremy Swayman (one year, $3.475MM cap hit)
*F Trent Frederic (two years, $2.3MM cap hit)
F Morgan Geekie (two years, $2MM cap hit)
D Kevin Shattenkirk (one year, $1.05MM cap hit)
F James van Riemsdyk (one year, $1MM cap hit)
F Milan Lucic (one year, 35+ contract, $1MM cap hit)
F Patrick Brown (two years, $800K cap hit)
*D Ian Mitchell (one year, $775K cap hit)
F Jesper Boqvist (one year, $775K cap hit)

Buffalo Sabres

D Connor Clifton (three years, $3.333MM cap hit)
D Erik Johnson (one year, 35+ contract, $3.25MM cap hit)
F Tyson Jost (one year, $2MM cap hit)

Detroit Red Wings

*F Alex DeBrincat (four years, $7.875MM cap hit)
F J.T. Compher (five years, $5.1MM cap hit)
D Shayne Gostisbehere (one year, $4.125MM cap hit)
D Justin Holl (three years, $3.4MM cap hit)
F Klim Kostin (two years, $2MM cap hit)
F Daniel Sprong (one year, $2MM cap hit)
G James Reimer (one year, 35+ contract, $1.5MM cap hit)
F Christian Fischer (one year, $1.125MM cap hit)
D Gustav Lindström (one year, $950K cap hit)
G Alex Lyon (two years, $900K cap hit)

Florida Panthers

F Evan Rodrigues (four years, $3MM cap hit)
**F Eetu Luostarinen (three years, $3MM cap hit)
D Niko Mikkola (three years, $2.5MM cap hit)
D Oliver Ekman-Larsson (one year, $2.25MM cap hit)
G Anthony Stolarz (one year, $1.1MM cap hit)
D Mike Reilly (one year, $1MM cap hit)
D Dmitry Kulikov (one year, $1MM cap hit)
F Kevin Stenlund (one year, $1MM cap hit)
*F Grigori Denisenko (two years, $775K cap hit)

Montreal Canadiens

*F Alex Newhook (four years, $2.9MM cap hit)
*F Rafaël Harvey-Pinard (two years, $1.1MM cap hit)

Ottawa Senators

F Vladimir Tarasenko (one year, $5MM cap hit)
G Joonas Korpisalo (five years, $4MM cap hit)
*D Erik Brännström (one year, $2MM cap hit)
D Travis Hamonic (two years, $1.1MM cap hit)
*D Jacob Bernard-Docker (two years, $805K cap hit)
F Zack MacEwen (three years, $775K cap hit)

Tampa Bay Lightning

*F Tanner Jeannot (two years, $2.665MM cap hit)
F Conor Sheary (three years, $2MM cap hit)
F Josh Archibald (two years, $800K cap hit)
F Luke Glendening (two years, $800K cap hit)
G Jonas Johansson (two years, $775K cap hit)
D Calvin de Haan (one year, $775K cap hit)

Toronto Maple Leafs

F Tyler Bertuzzi (one year, $5.5MM cap hit)
D John Klingberg (one year, $4.15MM cap hit)
*G Ilya Samsonov (one year, $3.55MM cap hit)
F Max Domi (one year, $3MM cap hit)
F Ryan Reaves (three years, 35+ contract, $1.35MM cap hit)
G Martin Jones (one year, $875K cap hit)
F Dylan Gambrell (one year, $775K cap hit)

Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly

Rodion Amirov Passes Away At 21

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Tragically, Toronto Maple Leafs prospect Rodion Amirov has passed away at the age of 21 after he was diagnosed with a brain tumor two years ago. His agent, Dan Milstein, announced the news Monday afternoon.

“From the moment he received the news, he refused to speak in the negative, determined to enjoy every day, facing it with the same positive attitude he showed during his hockey career,” Milstein said. “We will always remember his courage, his desire, his will, his smile, all of the great things about him. We’d like to thank his doctors, who took great care of him. We’d like to thank the Toronto Maple Leafs and his KHL – Salavat Yulayev Ufa team. Both did everything possible to help in any way, do whatever was necessary for Rodion and the Amirov family. And we’d like to thank hockey fans all over the world who sent notes of encouragement and best wishes over the past two years. They meant so much to the Amirov family.”

Born in Salavat, Russia, Amirov developed through the Yulayev Ufa system, culminating in a strong draft year in 2019-20. There, he registered two assists through 21 KHL games during his first pro experience and excelled in the Russian junior circuit, scoring 22 points in 17 games for Salavat’s MHL affiliate, Tolpar Ufa. It culminated in a first-round selection in the 2020 NHL Draft, and Toronto took him off the draft board with the 15th overall pick. He gained a more extensive KHL role the following season, scoring nine goals, four assists and 13 points in 39 games for Ufa in 2020-21. He also was named to Russia’s roster for the 2021 World Juniors, where he served as an alternate captain and led the team in scoring with six points in seven games. After the strong post-draft showing, Toronto signed him to a three-year, entry-level contract the following summer.

After playing ten games with Salavat to open the 2021-22 campaign, however, Amirov sustained an unrelated injury, and he developed further symptoms during the recovery period. The Maple Leafs then announced in February 2022 that Amirov had been diagnosed with a brain tumor, ending his season as he underwent treatment in Germany.

Amirov then recovered enough to travel to Toronto for last season’s Hockey Fights Cancer night in November, appearing during the pre-game ceremonies. Unfortunately, after the event, Amirov had to pause training and undergo additional treatments. He had been working out that summer with both Salavat and Toronto, aiming to return to play sometime during 2022-23 – a true testament to the positive outlook Milstein referenced in his statement.

We at PHR are incredibly saddened by this news and extend our deepest condolences to the Amirov family and anyone inside or outside the hockey community affected by cancer.

Extension Candidate: William Nylander

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The Toronto Maple Leafs currently stand with the most to lose entering the 2024 UFA market. A pair of star forwards, Auston Matthews and William Nylander, remain without contracts past next season, although the level of optimism surrounding extensions for each seems to be increasingly farther apart.

In actuality, rumors regarding extensions for both have been quiet over the last few weeks. But where we left off on Nylander wasn’t exactly on a positive note. Most recently, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported in mid-July that negotiations were at a standstill. Chris Johnston of NorthStar Bets and SDPN also believed the gap between the two parties was between $1MM and $2MM, with Nylander desiring around a $10MM AAV and the Leafs countering with an AAV between $8MM and $9MM. Nylander also had a rather strong relationship with former Leafs GM Kyle Dubas, whose contract was not renewed earlier this offseason and Brad Treliving is now in his place.

There is still quite a lot of time between now and July 1, 2024, though – ten and a half months, to be exact. If the Leafs and Nylander can reconcile and work out a new deal, what could the final product be?

2022-23

The 2014 eighth-overall pick silenced most doubters last season with a career-best regular season and equally impressive playoff performance. He surpassed the 40-goal mark for the first time in his NHL career and tied for second on the team in playoff scoring with four goals. Despite a subpar reputation defensively in one-on-one situations, he’s consistently maintained strong face value and relative possession numbers, a trend that held true in 2022-23. It’s fair to say what we’re seeing now is peak Nylander, as the winger is now 27 years old and has eight seasons and over 500 games of experience under his belt. After back-to-back 80-plus point years, he’s cemented his status as a first-line caliber winger stuck at second on his team’s depth chart behind Mitch Marner.

Statistics

2022-23: 82 GP, 40 G, 47 A, 87 pts, +10 rating, 28 PIMs, 293 shots, 18:33 ATOI, 52.5% CF
Career: 521 GP, 177 G, 253 A, 430 pts, +23 rating, 134 PIMs, 1,441 shots, 17:10 ATOI, 53.8% CF

The Market

With Matthews and Tampa Bay Lightning center Steven Stamkos surely set to extend with their current teams, Nylander has a legitimate claim to the title of best pending UFA with a real potential of hitting the market. That’s something he’s sure to use to his advantage in extension talks with Toronto, and with this being his big opportunity to cash in, he has no intentions of accepting a discount on a long-term deal. What Toronto won’t give him, he’ll try to find somewhere else.

It sets him up well to earn the eight-figure deal he desires, whether in Canada’s largest city or with another team. He’s likely to be money in the bank for at least 30 goals and 80 points for at least the next five to six years, assuming he stays healthy, and a rich deal like this has the rare potential to be a bargain halfway through with the pace the salary cap’s Upper Limit is expected to rise. The latter factor is one that may influence Treliving to become comfortable with the idea of committing $10MM to a fourth player in 2024-25, although it’ll still be an incredibly difficult fit under the cap expected to rise to $87.5MM. That being said, John Tavares’ $11MM AAV deal expires in 2025, which will make it a one-season crunch if they do opt for an extension.

Comparable Contracts

Filip Forsberg (Nashville) – signed an eight-year deal worth $68MM ($8.5MM AAV) just a few days before the free agent market opened last season. It worked out to 10.3% of the salary cap at that time, which would translate to a $9MM cap hit for Nylander assuming an Upper Limit of $87.5MM when the extension kicks in. This will be Toronto’s biggest sticking point in negotiations – Forsberg was coming off an even better season than Nylander at the time (42 goals, 84 points in 69 games), had more games played than Nylander, and had scored with more consistency throughout his career. Like Nylander, Forsberg could have likely gotten more on the open market at the time.

David Pastrnak (Boston) – signed an eight-year, $90MM contract extension ($11.25MM AAV) with the Bruins amidst a 2022-23 season that saw him finish with a career-high 61 goals and 113 points, becoming the first 60-goal scorer not to win the league’s goal-scoring title since Jaromir Jagr in 1995-96. They’re totals he won’t likely replicate, but he’d still shown flashes of a higher offensive ceiling than Nylander, as evidenced during his 48-goal, 95-point 2019-20 campaign, which was curtailed thanks to COVID in March. There is a sizable gap between his and Nylander’s market value, and given the recency of the extension, Pastrnak’s deal likely sets Nylander’s market cap around the $10MM he’s pushing for.

Projected Contract

Given the above comparables, there’s a fair argument to be made that Nylander won’t quite net $10MM on a seven-year deal if he becomes a free agent next summer. That’s not to say the Leafs will get what they desire on an extension, though.

In all likelihood, Nylander’s number on a max-term deal will start with a nine, which is above Toronto’s currently reported range of $8MM-$9MM. Unfortunately, meeting in the middle is not always commonplace for UFA negotiations, especially with a player on the age precipice of Nylander, who likely won’t have the opportunity for another high-paying, long-term deal after this one. He won’t have permission to speak to other teams about a deal, though. If Toronto does up their offer to something in the $9MM range, and Nylander rejects it in hopes of getting eight figures per year on the open market, it could be a decision he regrets, especially considering he’s forfeiting a year of term by signing with another team.

Treliving does have to balance this with Matthews’ pending extension and an extension for Marner before the 2024-25 season draws to a close, although Tavares’ deal expiring alongside Marner’s will give Toronto some flexibility they haven’t had for a few summers now. Nylander will also likely be eyeing Pittsburgh Penguins forward Jake Guentzel’s extension situation as a more current/direct comparison for his own deal.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Nick Robertson Fully Recovered From Shoulder Surgery

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  • Toronto winger Nick Robertson told TSN’s Mark Masters (video link) that he has fully recovered from his season-ending shoulder surgery in January and will be ready to participate in training camp next month. It has been a rough go for the 21-year-old who has battled injury trouble in each of the last three seasons.  He played in just 17 games last season between the NHL and AHL with 15 of those coming with the Maple Leafs where he had a respectable five points.  This is the final year of Robertson’s entry-level deal and with cap space expected to be limited, his cap hit of less than $800K will certainly help his chances of seeing NHL action in 2023-24.

Toronto Maple Leafs Sign Easton Cowan

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Aug 11: CapFriendly has the full breakdown of Cowan’s three-year entry-level contract, which carries a $935.8K cap hit. Cowan has an $82.5K minors salary in all three seasons of the deal, which is slide-eligible for two seasons if he plays less than ten NHL games in each season.

2023-24: $830K salary, $92K signing bonus
2024-25: $842K salary, $93.5K signing bonus
2025-26: $855K salary, $95K signing bonus

Aug 10: Being there only once in the first four rounds of the 2023 NHL Draft, the Toronto Maple Leafs have signed 28th overall selection Easton Cowan to a three-year, entry-level contract, per a team announcement. Cowan will continue his junior career not too far from Toronto, as he is once again scheduled to suit up for the London Knights of the Ontario Hockey League next season.

In his first full season in the OHL, Cowan played well, scoring 20 goals and 33 assists in 68 games for the Knights as a 17-year-old. More impressive than his regular season point production, Cowan was incredible in the playoffs, scoring nine goals and 12 assists in 20 games. He would help lead the Knights all the way to the OHL Championship series, eventually losing to the Peterborough Petes in six games.

Two of the best qualities in Cowan’s game are his hockey intelligence and speed. He was largely able to out-maneuver most opponents due to his creativity matching up very well with his quickness. If the Maple Leafs are able to keep their current group intact, Cowan should fit in rather nicely to their top six down the line.

Per the NHL-CHL transfer agreement, Cowan is not yet eligible for the American Hockey League, and it is highly unlikely that he will get a look at the NHL level this season, even if only for nine games. At least for next year, and potentially the year after that, Cowan will likely continue to grow his game in the OHL, hoping to make his mark on the Original Six organization in the near future.

Toronto Maple Leafs Sign Martin Jones

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Aug 10: CapFriendly confirmed the financial details of Jones’ contract. The veteran netminder will earn the league-minimum $775K base salary with the remaining $100K paid out via a signing bonus.

Aug 9: The Toronto Maple Leafs and veteran netminder Martin Jones have agreed to a one-year, $875K contract, per a team release. He’s now expected to provide insurance and compete for the backup job in Toronto.

Jones, 33, brings a capable veteran element to Toronto’s crease depth, although it’s not out of the question that he’s assigned to the minors for the first time in a decade. He spent the 2022-23 season with the Seattle Kraken, posting a 27-13-3 record and three shutouts but a rather poor .886 save percentage in 48 games.

It was the most action Jones had seen in a season since his starting days with the San Jose Sharks in the mid-2010s, but it was mostly due to Philipp Grubauer’s injury-related absences rather than performance. Across ten seasons and 444 NHL contests with the Kraken, Sharks, Los Angeles Kings, and Philadelphia Flyers, Jones’ career numbers still read a .905 save percentage and 2.71 goals-against average despite his struggles in recent years.

Considering he hasn’t been an above-average netminder in six years, Jones likely slots in third on Toronto’s goalie depth chart behind starter Ilya Samsonov and intriguing prospect Joseph Woll. After the latter had a strong showing down the stretch of the regular season and in the playoffs when Samsonov went down with an injury, he’s the likely candidate to win a backup job.

While Jones did receive a one-way deal, that’s not likely an indication that Toronto envisions having him on the NHL roster all season. It’s clear the Leafs were looking to add at that position – their AHL goalie depth is unimpressive with Woll graduating to the pros. Earlier this summer, they were linked to another veteran, former Tampa Bay Lightning backup Brian Elliott, but he remains unsigned.

It’s worth noting Jones will require waivers to head to the AHL, and there’s no guarantee he’ll clear after the workload he took on last season and his affordable contract.

List Of Players Expected To Start 2023-24 On LTIR

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We’re at the point in the summer where most major signings are complete, meaning only a handful of free agents left on the market could still command over the maximum buriable threshold of $1.15MM per year on their next contract. That means financial pictures are mostly set league-wide, and general managers can now focus more on the arduous task of salary cap management.

For many teams nowadays, long-term injured reserve (LTIR) is an important tool in helping teams keep below the salary cap’s Upper Limit, which is set at $83.5MM for 2023-24. It’s not as straightforward as it seems at first glance, though. Placing a player on LTIR does not eliminate their cap hit from the team’s books until they’re activated again. Instead, a team only gains cap relief if they exceed the Upper Limit, and the specific amount of relief received depends on the team’s cap situation on the day they place a player on LTIR. A more detailed explanation of how LTIR works can be found on CapFriendly.

All LTIR situations are not created equal. To be eligible for LTIR, a player must miss at least ten games or 24 days of action. However, they don’t need to be placed on LTIR if they’re projected to miss more than that amount of time. Oftentimes, a team operating far below the Upper Limit that won’t need any relief will simply keep the player on standard injured reserve, especially if they’re relying on an injured player’s cap hit to stay above the Lower Limit (set at $61.7MM next season).

With that said, here is a list of players who are projected to meet the injury requirements for LTIR to start 2023-24:

Atlantic Division

Buffalo Sabres – Jack Quinn

This offseason was a tough break for the young Quinn, who sustained an Achilles injury during offseason training in June and is expected to be out of the lineup through Thanksgiving. While eligible, he’s unlikely to actually be placed on LTIR. He’s still on his entry-level contract and carries a marginal cap hit of $863K, making a move extremely inconsequential to the Sabres, who CapFriendly projects with over $6MM in space.

Florida Panthers – Aaron Ekblad, Brandon Montour

The Panthers are set to begin the season without the services of their top two defensemen, thanks to shoulder injuries sustained and exacerbated during their run to the 2023 Stanley Cup Final. Combined, the players carry a rather significant $11MM cap hit, which should give the Panthers some season-opening flexibility. Ekblad’s expected to miss more time than Montour, but neither is expected to miss the whole season – both should be back in the fold by the time the calendar flips to 2024. CapFriendly currently projects the Panthers dipping into LTIR relief by $1.175MM to start the season.

Montreal Canadiens – Carey Price

The team’s legendary netminder isn’t expected to play again after a knee injury, and he hasn’t suited up since the end of the 2021-22 campaign. He’ll likely spend the last three seasons of his contract (carrying a $10.5MM cap hit) on LTIR. As we covered earlier in the week, Montreal is in a bit of a no man’s land with Price’s contract. They’ll likely either look to shed salary to get under the Upper Limit entirely (which they currently sit around $5MM over) or add money to maximize’s Price’s LTIR relief, which they could then weaponize in-season to be a cap broker for trades.

Tampa Bay Lightning – Brent Seabrook

Like Price, Seabrook will be on LTIR for the remainder of his $6.875MM cap hit contract, which expires next summer. Acquired from the Chicago Blackhawks after his injury made it clear he wouldn’t play again, Seabrook has provided additional options for cap flexibility for the Lightning over the last two seasons. Tampa is expected to use close to all of Seabrook’s potential relief to stay compliant throughout the season.

Toronto Maple Leafs – Jake Muzzin, Matt Murray

While not confirmed, Muzzin’s playing future remains in serious doubt after sustaining a cervical spine fracture at the beginning of last season. No recent update has been issued on his recovery, and he’s expected to miss the entire 2023-24 campaign and will spend the final year of his contract on LTIR. Murray’s situation is shrouded in much more mystery, however. The team announced last month he’d begin next season on LTIR, but no specific details of his injury were confirmed, and no timetable was issued for a potential return. Murray missed significant time last season with a concussion and an adductor injury.

Metropolitan Division

Philadelphia Flyers – Ryan Ellis

Forwards Cam Atkinson and Sean Couturier are expected to return to the lineup after missing all of last season with injuries, but the same can’t be said for Ryan Ellis. President of hockey operations Keith Jones said a few days ago that Ellis is unlikely to “be able to continue his playing career because of a torn psoas muscle in his back.” Ellis played just four games for the Flyers after they acquired him from the Nashville Predators in 2021 before sustaining the career-ending injury.

Washington Capitals – Max Pacioretty

Pacioretty’s timeline for a return after sustaining back-to-back Achilles injuries isn’t clear, but he likely won’t be available to the team to start the season and should meet the requirements for LTIR. The financial circumstances surrounding the potential relief will be tricky to navigate given the performance bonuses included in his contract, however. Pacioretty should be joining the Capitals after signing a one-year deal last month, sometime in November or December if everything goes well in his recovery.

Central Division

Arizona Coyotes – Jakub Voracek, Shea Weber, Bryan Little

All three are players acquired by the Coyotes for the express consideration of helping them stay above the cap floor – which they are now far above after being big players on the free-agent market this summer. Nonetheless, all three are done with their NHL careers due to various injuries and will remain members of the Coyotes organization by contract only.

Colorado Avalanche – Gabriel Landeskog

Colorado will be without their captain for a second straight season after the winger underwent a cartilage transplant on his right knee this summer. Landeskog hasn’t played since hoisting the Stanley Cup in 2022, a playoff run during which he played through a knee injury. He’s signed through 2029, and there’s still the potential he plays again, although it won’t be anytime soon.

Pacific Division

Anaheim Ducks – Isac Lundeström

Lundeström projects to be on the shelf through next January after sustaining an Achilles injury during offseason training in Sweden. Given the Ducks are far from the Upper Limit, and Lundeström carries just a $1.8MM cap hit, Anaheim could keep him on standard injured reserve for the duration of his absence.

Vegas Golden Knights – Robin Lehner

All has been quiet on Lehner’s health after he missed all of last season. The All-Star-caliber netminder had double hip surgery last summer, keeping him out for the entire 2022-23 campaign. He was not around the team at all during their run to the 2023 Stanley Cup, and the team has issued no updates on his recovery since undergoing the surgery last summer. Without any indication that he’s close to a return, Lehner closes out our list.

Leafs Likely To Retain AGM Brandon Pridham

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  • Toronto Maple Leafs assistant general manager Brandon Pridham is likely sticking with the organization despite rumors to the contrary, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman said while appearing on NHL Network yesterday. Friedman connected Pridham’s preference to stay in Toronto to new Pittsburgh Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas’ wait on filling the GM position in Pittsburgh full-time, saying Pridham was his top candidate for the Penguins’ GM role. Instead, Pridham informed the Leafs earlier this summer that he’d prefer to stay with the organization instead of following his former boss to Pittsburgh. The Penguins announced yesterday that Dubas will serve as the team’s full-time GM in addition to his president of hockey operations role.

Previewing The Top 2024 Unrestricted Free Agents

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This year’s free agent class was underwhelming. There’s no disrespect intended here to players like Alex Killorn, Dmitry Orlov and Vladimir Tarasenko. However, we’ve grown accustomed to at least one true star being available on the market every year – at least a top-ten player at their position. But a flurry of extensions took some potential game-breakers, such as Boston Bruins sniper David Pastrnak off the market, limiting the amount of star power available.

With the salary cap finally expected to jump significantly by about $4MM next offseason, some NHL general managers will undoubtedly look to spend that extra cash on a shiny new toy on the UFA market. As 2023 is mainly in the rearview mirror, let’s take a look at some of the best players slated to hit the open market next summer, whether or not they may extend, and offer some way-too-early contract projections in the process:

F Auston Matthews (Toronto Maple Leafs) – The unquestionable crown jewel of the 2024 free agent class might also be one of the least likely to hit the market. Matthews is more than just a superstar – he’s a season removed from back-to-back Rocket Richard Trophies, he’s led the league in even-strength goals in four out of his seven NHL seasons, and he’s coming off a “down season” in which he still managed 40 goals despite a career-low 12.2 shooting percentage. Toronto is still plugging away at an extension with Matthews, a process that was surely elongated by a change at the GM position earlier this offseason. While multiple reports suggested it likely won’t be a long-term deal to keep Matthews in Toronto, seeing his name available for anyone to pursue next July would be shocking.

Extension Likelihood: Very Likely
Projected Contract: Five years, $62MM ($12.4MM AAV)

F William Nylander (Toronto Maple Leafs) – Another star in Canada’s largest city is also headed for the open market next season. Nylander is coming off a strong season with a career-high 40 goals and 87 points, but multiple reports indicate contract talks are currently at an impasse between the two sides. The Swedish winger reportedly wants an eight-figure cap hit on his next deal, one he’s increasingly unlikely to receive after sub-$10MM extensions for players like the Carolina Hurricanes’ Sebastian Aho. He will be in his prime at 28 years old next summer, though, and he currently holds the undisputed title of the best pure winger slated to hit the market. Given the slated cap increase, Nylander may be able to garner the money he desires elsewhere if Toronto isn’t willing to fork over another eight-figure deal.

Extension Likelihood: Somewhat Unlikely
Projected Contract: Seven years, $70MM ($10MM AAV)

F Steven Stamkos (Tampa Bay Lightning) – Including Stamkos on this list seems like more of a formality than anything else. The captain of back-to-back Stanley Cup championship teams in Tampa and likely to go down as the greatest player in franchise history when he retires, it’s nearly impossible to imagine him wearing another jersey. Barring an unforeseen breakdown in communication, Stamkos will be re-upping with the Bolts on what could potentially be the final contract of his NHL career as he enters his mid-30s. After yet another point-per-game season, Stamkos will undoubtedly be sticking around in Tampa as long as they’ll have him, likely at a slight discount to help them replenish their depth reserves.

Extension Likelihood: Very Likely
Projected Contract: Four years, $31.5MM ($7.875MM AAV)

F Jake Guentzel (Pittsburgh Penguins) – The Penguins have exhibited a strong tendency toward keeping the band together in recent seasons, but it’s a trend that may change under the front-office leadership of Kyle Dubas. Still, it’s hard to imagine the Penguins won’t field a competitive offer to keep Guentzel in the fold. He’s been one of the most successful and consistent linemates to Sidney Crosby in the entire illustrious career of the future Hall-of-Famer, he’s a two-time 40-goal scorer, and he’s an incredibly clutch playoff performer. While contract extension talks haven’t begun between the two parties yet, reporting indicates the Penguins’ core shares the public’s view of Guentzel and would like to keep him around.

Extension Likelihood: Likely
Projected Contract: Eight years, $75MM ($9.375MM AAV)

F Mark Scheifele (Winnipeg Jets) – The first of two Jets on this list hasn’t been in trade rumors quite as much as his netminding counterpart, but there’s still a very good chance Scheifele is sporting a different jersey by the 2024 trade deadline. Speculation has immediately run rampant about Scheifele as a stop-gap fix down the middle for the Boston Bruins, who are without their number-one center after captain Patrice Bergeron announced his retirement last week. There are plenty of question marks about how highly Scheifele is actually valued around the league, given his significant defensive lapses, but he’s consistently produced the offense you’d want out of a number-one center. Despite scoring a career-high 42 goals last season, 2022-23 was actually Scheifele’s first campaign falling short of a point per game since 2015-16, when he was just 22 years old.

Extension Likelihood: Unlikely
Projected Contract: Seven years, $66MM ($9.4MM AAV)

D Devon Toews (Colorado Avalanche) – Toews may be the most unheralded defenseman in the league thanks to his partner, Cale Makar. On almost any other team, Toews would be a legitimate number-one defender with very few holes in his game. Little has been made of his impending free agency, but he’ll be due a major raise on his current bargain-bin $4.1MM cap hit. Combined with the potential loss of captain Gabriel Landeskog’s LTIR relief should he return to play in 2024-25, it could be incredibly difficult for Colorado to retain him even with the cap going up. Not only does Toews consistently rank among having some of the best defensive impacts in the league, but he’s also coming off back-to-back 50-point campaigns and has finished top-15 in Norris voting during each of his three seasons in Colorado.

Extension Likelihood: 50/50
Projected Contract: Seven years, $61MM ($8.7MM AAV)

D Brandon Montour (Florida Panthers) – A pair of prominent Panthers defenders are up for UFA status next season in Montour and Gustav Forsling, but Montour’s the one we’ll cover more in-depth here after he led the Panthers’ defense in playoff scoring with eight goals and 13 points in 21 games despite playing through a shoulder injury which will cost him the beginning of the 2023-24 campaign. His stock has never been higher after exploding for 73 points in 80 regular season games, along with a career-high 107 penalty minutes. While he’s still a rather one-dimensional player and likely to be somewhat of a liability defensively, he’s finally shown legitimate top-pair ability at 29 years old. Committing any term to Montour as a UFA may be a case of buyer beware, however, as his track record is far from consistent.

Extension Likelihood: Somewhat Unlikely
Projected Contract: Four years, $26MM ($6.5MM AAV)

G Connor Hellebuyck (Winnipeg Jets) – It seemed very unlikely a few months ago that Hellebuyck would be on this list today. While there’s no chance he’ll be signing an extension with the Jets, a trade followed by an extension with a new team seemed rather likely this offseason. However, some outlandish financial demands from Hellebuyck’s camp dried up trade interest, and there hasn’t been a lot of movement on that front lately. While small, the possibility that Hellebuyck lands on the open market next season seems to be increasing without a trade or extension any closer to fruition.

Extension Likelihood: Very Unlikely
Projected Contract: Seven years, $61.25MM ($8.75MM AAV)

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Toronto Maple Leafs Had Interest In Milan Lucic, Radko Gudas

at CDT | by 3 Comments

The Toronto Maple Leafs were active this summer in trying to add some toughness to their roster in the form of enforcers and multi-dimensional players, eventually settling on Max Domi, Ryan Reaves and Tyler Bertuzzi. Those weren’t the only players they contacted of that ilk, however. Both forward Milan Lucic (YouTube link) and defenseman Radko Gudas (link to iSport.cz) revealed in separate interviews that Toronto general manager Brad Treliving had pursued them in unrestricted free agency.

Lucic hadn’t been previously connected to the Leafs throughout this summer’s rumor cycle, but it makes sense they’d have interest given their pursuit and acquisition of Reaves to play a similar role. He told Paul Bissonnette and Ryan Whitney of the Spittin’ Chiclets podcast yesterday, though, that he’d turned down interest from Treliving because of his previous stint with the rival Boston Bruins. The 35-year-old would end up returning to Boston after an eight-year absence, inking a one-year, $1MM contract with the Bruins on July 1.

In terms of offense, Lucic would’ve been a higher-upside (and potentially cheaper) addition to the Leafs’ roster than Reaves. In fact, the only advantage Reaves arguably has between the two players is fighting skill – something the Leafs would end up paying a premium for with a three-year, $4.05MM commitment. Of course, Toronto would end up getting some higher-octane offensive players with the gritty element they were looking for in Bertuzzi and Domi.

Gudas, on the other hand, is pretty much the antithesis of the right-shot defender Toronto did end up signing, John Klingberg. A hulking, physical defensive specialist, Gudas told an outlet in his home country that he’d turned down offers from three teams (Toronto, Calgary and Edmonton) to avoid playing in front of a Canadian media market. While he did sacrifice playing on a competitive team in his twilight years, Gudas did get compensated nicely by the rebuilding Anaheim Ducks with a three-year, $12MM deal carrying trade protection.

The 33-year-old Czech was a large reason why his former team, the Florida Panthers, advanced all the way to the Stanley Cup Final for just the second time in franchise history. He quickly immortalized himself in Leafs lore in the process, going semi-viral for an image that showed him screaming at Toronto goalie Joseph Woll after the Panthers knocked the Leafs out of the playoffs in the Second Round thanks to a Game 5 overtime win.

While Toronto ended up paying slightly more in terms of cap hit for Klingberg ($4.15MM compared to Gudas’ $4MM in Anaheim), they were able to get him at just a one-year commitment, absolving themselves of any long-term consequences should the signing not pan out.

Gudas has topped 100 penalty minutes three times throughout his career and has consistently posted standout advanced defensive metrics over the past number of seasons. He recorded 17 points in 72 games for the Panthers last season while averaging 17:22 of ice time per game.

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