Atlantic Notes: Boston, Brassard, Stamkos
Yesterday, Boston completed an under-the-radar coaching move, promoting Kevin Dean to head coach with the Providence Bruins. Dean has been part of the Bruins organization for a long time now, including spending the last five seasons as an assistant in Providence.
With his promotion, current NHL bench boss Claude Julien‘s rear-end is now squarely on the hot seat (if it wasn’t already, after missing the playoffs for two straight seasons), and another disappointing year may cause the loyal Dean to make another jump. The 47-year old’s best skill may be his ability to develop young defensemen, and will have a strong group to work with in the AHL this season.
- Ken Warren of the Ottawa Citzen writes that experience was a big factor in the Senators’ decision to trade for Derick Brassard yesterday. The team had to give up 23-year old Mika Zibanejad to do it, but they feel that the veteran Brassard was worth the loss. With 563 NHL games under his belt, the 28-year old has established himself as a legitimate second-line center in the NHL, capable of playing in both ends of the rink. He and Zibanejad will try to build on 2015-16 with their new clubs, after each scored 50+ points last year.
- Yesterday agent Pat Morris was on TSN 1050 discussing the interview window that Steven Stamkos experienced before ultimately re-signing with Tampa Bay this year, and (via Chris Nichols of Today’s Slapshot) confirmed that a team could have sponsorship representatives in the meeting with the player to entice him somewhat. When asked if the Canadian Tire CEO was in the Maple Leafs meeting, Morris was a little diplomatic in his answer: “If there were any meetings, and if Canadian Tire was there, Canadian Tire owns Sport Chek, and Steven Stamkos has an existing deal with that company.”
Current Status Of Top-Ten Draft Picks
As we approach a month since the NHL Entry Draft took place, teams have started to lock up their newest talents to lucrative deals and will soon begin the process of determining where they’ll play next season (if they haven’t already). For some, the contract seemed a mere formality and was signed within days of the draft; for others, their continuing negotiations are like torture for the fans that have already put in a pre-order for a dozen jerseys, and promised to name their next child Auston, Clayton, or Tyson.
Here is the current status of each of the top ten picks of the 2016 NHL draft:
(Annual average value (AAV) includes potential performance bonuses.)
- Auston Matthews (TOR) – Unsigned – Matthews continues to negotiate with the Maple Leafs on his entry-level deal, though all signs point to an amiable discussion so far. With GM Lou Lamoriello’s known opposition to incentive-laden contracts, perhaps the Maple Leafs and first-overall pick are working out something a little more creative to reward Matthews.
- Patrik Laine (WPG) – Signed, July 3rd: Three years, $3.575MM AAV – After moving up four spots in the draft lottery, Winnipeg was given the chance to draft a potential franchise-altering player in Laine, and they didn’t take long to lock him up. The Finnish winger is an elite goal scoring talent that should step into the NHL right away and be a threat for the Calder trophy. He came in just $200K under the maximum allowed for players signing their ELC.
- Pierre-Luc Dubois (CBJ) – Signed, June 29th: Three years, $3.425MM AAV – The Blue Jackets also moved up after winning a lottery spot, and were expected by many to pick Jesse Puljujarvi, the other Finnish winger who had long been a top choice by scouts. Instead, the team looked down the middle and took the second ranked center in Dubois. Though he’ll probably head back to the QMJHL for another season, Dubois has an extremely high ceiling capable of being a number one center – Columbus will give him every chance to reach it.
- Jesse Puljujarvi (EDM) – Signed, July 13th: Three years, $3.425MM AAV – Even with the glut of young forwards Edmonton already had, they couldn’t pass up a chance at Puljujarvi after he fell to four. They tried to trade the pick but couldn’t find fair value for it, and so added the young Finn to their group. Perhaps that led them to the decision that Taylor Hall was expendable, as they have another elite talent on the wing (though he and Hall normally play opposite sides) that could jump to the NHL right away.
- Olli Juolevi (VAN) – Unsigned – The first defenseman taken in this year’s draft, Juolevi was a rising talent after his Memorial Cup victory with the London Knights. Capable of playing in any situation, Juolevi is as good of a defensive prospect as you can expect to get with the fifth overall pick. Perhaps not a franchise player, he’ll be a big part of Vancouver’s blueline for years to come – that is, whenever he signs his first contract.
- Matthew Tkachuk (CGY) – Signed, July 7th: Three years, $1.775MM AAV – The Flames’ front office must have been ecstatic when Tkachuk was still available when their turn came, as he’s exactly the type of player that President Brian Burke loves. Tkachuck, son of former NHL great Keith, agreed to a deal that will max-out under $2MM even if he hits all of his bonuses. If he turns into the player many believe him to be, at some point skating alongside new Flames’ right-winger Troy Brouwer would be an imposing sight to be sure.
- Clayton Keller (ARZ) – Unsigned – The Arizona Coyotes followed Columbus’ lead and took a center with their first pick of the round (they would later trade for the 16th overall pick to select D Jakob Chychrun) but haven’t signed the USA standout. As we reported yesterday, Keller is standing by his commitment to head to Boston University next season, though the Windsor Spitfires are doing everything they can to bring him to the OHL. He likely won’t sign with the Coyotes until he’s ready to make the jump from the NCAA.
- Alexander Nylander (BUF) – Signed, July 15th: Three years, $1.775MM AAV – The younger brother of Toronto Maple Leafs center William and son of former NHLer Michael, Nylander is expected to play a big part in the re-build for Buffalo over the next few seasons. With the team hitting rock bottom last year, they are on a steady climb upwards and have perhaps turned a corner with the huge signing of Kyle Okposo this summer. Nylander has impressed many at camp with his blend of skating ability and hard shot.
- Mikhail Sergachev (MTL) – Signed, July 1st: Three years, $1.775MM AAV – Sergachev is an interesting case, as he came over in the OHL’s import draft and made an impact in his rookie season, winning the Max Kaminsky trophy as the league’s top blueliner. Many think he’ll head back to Windsor for another season, but there has been rumbling that he could crack the Canadiens roster as soon as this year. The left-handed shooting Russian is a born powerplay quarterback, and may eventually slide in next to Shea Weber on the top unit.
- Tyson Jost (COL) – Unsigned – Colorado reached into the BCHL to select Jost, an elite offensive talent out of Penticton, if a little undersized. He’ll be heading to the NCAA this year as well, as he’s committed to the University of North Dakota for 2016-17. This is the usual route for players out of Penticton, as since the CHL is deemed a professional league by the NCAA, the BCHL is the highest level of hockey in North America allowed before heading to college. Like Keller, don’t expect Jost to sign anytime soon.
For the other twenty picks of the first round, only Jake Bean and Julien Gauthier have signed as of yet. Many of the players selected here won’t sign a contract until their 2016-17 assignment/league has been decided. Keep an eye on PHR and Roster Resource to track when they sign and where they’re headed next season.
Snapshots: Bernier, Weber, Benn, Tavares, Patrick
Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston reports that the Maple Leafs compensation for trading netminder Jonathan Bernier is contingent on a number of scenarios. According to Johnston, the only way the Leafs receive a draft pick is if the Ducks advance to the Stanley Cup Final. Johnston writes that there were four conditions placed on the trade.
The conditions, word for word from Johnston, are the following:
- If Bernier starts half of Anaheim’s playoff games next spring and the Ducks lose in the Stanley Cup Final, Toronto receives the Ducks’ 2017 third-round pick. (If Anaheim doesn’t still own that selection, it will transfer its next available third-rounder from a future year.)
- Should Anaheim trade Bernier to a team that starts him in half of its playoff games next spring and wins the Stanley Cup, Toronto receives the Ducks’ second-round pick.
- Should Anaheim trade Bernier to a team that starts him in half of its playoff games next spring and loses in the Stanley Cup Final, Toronto receives the Ducks’ third-round pick.
Failure to meet any of these conditions means Toronto misses out on a draft pick.
In other news around the league:
- The Shea Weber–P.K. Subban trade is still being talked about weeks after the trigger was pulled. The Hockey News’ Ken Campbell reports that fired analytics guru Matt Pfeffer called Weber “average,” but added that average players are “worth a heck of a lot.” Pfeffer, according to numerous reports, provided Canadiens management with a detailed report on the potential trade of Weber for Subban. His contract was not renewed. Campbell writes that Pfeffer believes the “eye test” still rules in NHL scouting circles, and that analytics have not been fully embraced throughout the league. Pfeffer also indicates that he holds no ill-will toward the Canadiens because they “gave him a shot.” Pfeffer knows that the maturation of analytics will take time, and that NHL teams use a number of different resources to make the final call on trades.
- Puck Daddy’s Ryan Lambert writes that Jamie Benn‘s rich new deal with the Stars can only mean good things for Islanders captain John Tavares. Lambert reports that Tavares has been the bargain of a lifetime for the Isles in terms of price, and knowing that he does similar, if not better work than Benn, a handsome payday should be in store. Lambert shows that without Tavares, the Isles depth chart gets pretty thin, and that the captain is also two years younger than Benn, only increasing his value. Tavares, he says, would have gotten paid no matter what. But he now has a better bargaining chip after Benn’s $9.5AAV deal.
- As many eyes turn to the 2017 NHL Draft, projected #1 pick Nolan Patrick is expected to play in training camp despite a sports hernia injury that will keep him out of Canada’s National Junior Development camp. The report from NHL.com says that Patrick should be ready for the Brandon Wheat Kings training camp which is slated for late August. Patrick paced the Wheat Kings to a WHL title, and was named the top playoff performer.
Free Agent Profile: Jhonas Enroth
Jhonas Enroth represents the best of the remaining scraps of a once-deep free agent pool of goalies this off-season. But is there any market remaining for his talents? The once highly-touted Sabres prospect is now 28 years old, but is still capable of being a reliable contributor. Last season, Enroth posted a 2.17 goals against average and .922 save percentage in 16 appearances in relief of Jonathan Quick in Los Angeles. Both of those statistics, the lifeblood of goalie evaluation, put Enroth above the average set by the rest of his peers in free agency. Despite his efforts, Enroth still lacks a team while Anton Khudobin, Carter Hutton, Jonas Gustavsson, Al Montoya and others are happily signed.
At this point in the summer, and given the lack of open positions across the league, Enroth has to start to wonder whether he will have a job in North America when the NHL season kicks off in less than three months. It’s not unheard of for a known commodity, fully capable of playing at the NHL level, to head overseas simply because of a lack of opportunity or contract offers that pale in comparison to European possibilities. This is especially true for European players, such as the Swedish-born Enroth. However, for a talent such as Enroth’s to leave the NHL at this point in his career seems to be a waste and a missed opportunity for one of the thirty NHL squads.
While Enroth certainly did not live up to the lofty expectations set for him in Buffalo, the last few seasons have pointed towards a player that is peaking as a high-end backup in his prime years. After four years of struggling to be “the guy” in Buffalo, Enroth was finally given the reins as the starter with the Sabres to begin the 2014-15 season. Not long after, having made just 37 appearances, he was traded to the Dallas Stars. As the backup in Dallas, Enroth had a then career-high 2.38 GAA. While his numbers overall for the season were only mediocre, his performance in the low-pressure backup role after a change of scenery seemed to show promise. The Kings took a chance on him last summer, signing him to one-year, $1.25MM contract, and it paid off as Enroth was solid as the backup to one of the best in the game, and Los Angeles never had to worry about goal tending between Quick and the occassional Enroth appearance. However, the Kings decided not to move forward with Enroth as their backup, signing displaced former Penguin Jeff Zatkoff and acquiring prospect Jack Campbell, to go along with veteran Peter Budaj as backup options. This decision likely was a function of LA’s tight cap space and the salary demands of Enroth. So now the question becomes will someone take the same chance on Enroth as the Kings did, or will another good European goalie head back overseas?
Potential Suitors
The presence (or lack thereof) of suitors is the bigger issue at hand than the talent of Jhonas Enroth. As compared to the likes of Joni Ortio, Ben Scrivens, or Anders Lindback, Enroth is the clear choice as the best available unrestricted free agent goalie. So who might bite? The leading candidate is the Toronto Maple Leafs, who have already made a goalie splash this summer with the trade for Anaheim’s Frederik Andersen. However, they turned around traded Jonathan Bernier to the Ducks and now find themselves without a reliable backup. It has been rumored that the Leafs would prefer to make a trade for a top-end backup, and could also use the young Garrett Sparks as their primary backup as well, but they could also replace the departed former King, Bernier, with another former King, Enroth, and be no worse for wear.
The defending Western Conference champion San Jose Sharks could also be a destination. They traded for James Reimer at the deadline to spell their upstart number one, Martin Jones, but watched him head to Florida on July 1st. They have no internal options with ample NHL experience, and are still dealing with a starter that has only one full season as the go-to goalie under his belt. The Sharks watched Martin Jones play back up for the rival Kings first hand and went out and got him. They could do the same with Enroth.
Finally, never count out the Chicago Blackhawks. If there is a value signing to be made, the Blackhawks are always in the mix. They do have Scott Darling on a very affordable sub-$600K contract, but after a stellar rookie season, his number dipped last year and Chicago could upgrade with Enroth if the price is right. Teams can always come out of the woodwork to add a goalie as well, and Enroth may present value that can’t be passed up to the right team.
One goalie-needy team that can likely be counted out: the Buffalo Sabres. With just Robin Lehner and Anders Nilsson under contract, the Sabres aren’t swimming in goalie depth and talent, but it seems unlikely that the two sides would be looking into a reunion.
Expected Contract
Enroth was the last man in when we made our Top 50 Free Agents list and predictions, and his can still prove to be correct, as he we thought he would be a good fit for the Sharks at $1.4MM on a one-year deal. Given how close the Sharks were to winning the Stanley Cup last year, it seems unlikely that they would go into the season with their current goalie depth. However, when you’re this deep into the season, you have to wonder what could be holding up a contract between the two. San Jose may be taking their time to go through options or Enroth may be pricing himself out after a strong season. Either way, the two would be a good fit, as would Enroth in Toronto and a cheap, one-year deal seems likely. The NHL would benefit from keeping a good talent in goal like Enroth in North America, so it will continue to be a waiting game to see which team makes that happen.
Toronto Maple Leafs Sign Garret Sparks
According to a team release, the Toronto Maple Leafs have re-signed restricted free agent goaltender Garret Sparks to a one-year, two-way deal. Cap Friendly tells us that the deal is worth just $575K (league minimum) at the NHL level. The 23-year old made his NHL debut last season, playing in 17 games for the last-place Leafs.
On Sunday, we looked at the backup goalie options for Toronto after Mike Babcock was quoted as saying that the team would bring in “a good pro” to play behind Frederik Andersen. This seemed to have removed Sparks from the equation, one he was possibly not ever in to begin with. After playing well in his time at the AHL level, Sparks struggled in his first taste of NHL action, posting a 3.02 GAA and .893 save percentage.
A former seventh-round pick, it’s surprising he’s even made it this far, and with most of his career still in front of him he’ll try to work his way back to the big club. Sparks will likely head back to the Toronto Marlies to split time again with fellow goalie prospect Antoine Bibeau, however the team did sign top NCAA netminder Kasimir Kaskisuo back in March.
The Maple Leafs now have five RFAs still to sign this summer, with three (Peter Holland, Frank Corrado, and Martin Marincin) headed to arbitration in a few weeks time. They also have still yet to come to terms with first overall pick Auston Matthews, though it seems like a formality at this point despite the rumblings that GM Lou Lamoriello is still trying to avoid any performance bonuses.
The team is currently less than $6MM under the salary cap, however have multiple contracts that will be placed on long-term injured reserve as soon as the season begins. Nathan Horton and Stephane Robidas will not suit up this season, while the status of Joffrey Lupul and Jared Cowen is still undetermined.
League-Wide Notes: Haggarty, Vegas, Martin, Vesey
Harley Haggarty writes in the Player’s Tribune today about his role as a fighter in junior and the AHL. His knowledge of his expiration date is fairly interesting, and generally speaking, the difference between this and what players in the big leagues say, NHL players tend to have more optimistic views and tend to want more to stay in the NHL for longer, is interesting in terms of analyzing players who choose to keep playing in the AHL once they realize they won’t be NHL stars.
More links from around the league:
- Gord Miller of TSN reports on Twitter that the Las Vegas NHL franchise will be named the Knights.
- Sportsnet’s Eric Engels writes today about the PK Subban trade, saying at one point that Mat Pfeffer, an analytics consultant for the Canadiens, likely lost his job because of his opposition to the trade.
- Draglikepull at The Leafs Nation writes statistically about the Matt Martin signing. His analysis seems to suggest that Martin struggles to create offense.
- Todd Cordell of HockeyBuzz reports that the Devils stand a shot at signing Harvard forward Jimmy Vesey. Cordell reports that they’re on Vesey’s short list. Vesey, who was drafted by Nashville, had 24 goals and 22 assists playing for Harvard last year.
Free Agent Profile: Luke Schenn
Free agent defenseman Luke Schenn came into the NHL with plenty of expectations, having been drafted with the fifth overall pick in 2008 by the Maple Leafs, winning a gold medal at the World Junior championship, and cracking Toronto’s lineup at 18 years old. Since then, Schenn’s value has diminished, and he’s quickly becoming a veteran journeyman, rather than a budding star.
Initially viewed as a young bright spot on a bad Leafs team, Schenn played 70 games at over 21 minutes a night. The longer Schenn played in Toronto, the more he seemed to be questioned. He was still seen to have the potential to become a high-end NHL defenceman in 2011, when he was signed to a five year, $18MM contract. After signing, Schenn continued to struggle, and was subject of trade rumors all season, until he was dealt to the Philadelphia Flyers at the draft for left winger James van Riemsdyk.
There have been flashes along the way, and Schenn has had success playing with more skilled defense partners, such as Kimmo Timonen, or Michael Del Zotto. Like in Toronto with his draft position, Schenn faced expectations in Philadelphia based on his salary and what was given up to acquire him, and never fully lived up to them. In January, he was dealt to the Los Angeles Kings along with Vincent Lecavalier for Jordan Weal and a third round pick.
Potential Suitors
While he’s unlikely to be called a top-four defenseman, Schenn has value. He’s an experienced and capable player, and plays the right-handed. Teams looking to balance their defense pairings will take a long look at him. The Boston Bruins, for one, only have two right-handed defensemen signed to NHL contracts, and have the sort of puck-skilled left-hand shots that Schenn has seen success with, including former teammate John-Michael Liles. The Edmonton Oilers have also been speculated to be looking for a right-hand shot.
Expected Contract
Placing Schenn 30th on our NHL free agent rankings, we had projected he would receive a three-year, $8.25MM contract. Given how much of the cap space throughout the league has already been spent, it’s hard to imagine him signing for much more than $1MM for one year in an effort to rebuild his value, or provide depth to a contending team. Teams looking for size and balance may be willing to pay more, but one would have to think that if they were, it would be done by now.
Full Salary Arbitration Hearing Schedule
The NHLPA released the full schedule of arbitration hearings today, which will not include Jordan Weal, after he re-signed with the Philadelphia Flyers earlier today. Teams and players can still negotiate up until the hearing, and many will reach agreements before going to arbitration. For more information on the arbitration process, check out part one of our full guide. Here is the full schedule:
PLAYER ELECTED FILINGS
Arizona Coyotes
Michael Stone – August 4, 2016
Colorado Avalanche
Tyson Barrie – July 29, 2016
Mikhail Grigorenko – July 22, 2016
Detroit Red Wings
Danny DeKeyser – July 28, 2016
Minnesota Wild
Jordan Schroeder – July 27, 2016
Nashville Predators
Calle Jarnkrok – August 4, 2016
Petter Granberg – August 3, 2016
New York Rangers
Kevin Hayes – July 27, 2016
Chris Kreider – July 22, 2016
Dylan McIlrath – July 21, 2016
J.T. Miller – August 2, 2016
Ottawa Senators
Mike Hoffman – August 4, 2016
Philadelphia Flyers
Brandon Manning – August 2, 2016
Brayden Schenn – July 25, 2016
St. Louis Blues
Jaden Schwartz – July 20, 2016
Tampa Bay Lightning
Alex Killorn – July 20, 2016
Vladislav Namestnikov – July 29, 2016
Toronto Maple Leafs
Frank Corrado – July 26, 2016
Peter Holland – July 25, 2016
Martin Marincin – August 2, 2016
Washington Capitals
Marcus Johansson – July 20, 2016
CLUB ELECTED FILINGS
Detroit Red Wings
Petr Mrazek – July 27, 2016
Montreal Introduces Laval As New AHL Affiliate
As we speculated here yesterday, the Montreal Canadiens have officially announced that they will move their AHL affiliate St. John’s to Laval, Quebec for the 2017-18 season. The city is building a new 10,000 seat arena that will house the team, and is now just a short distance from it’s parent club.
St. John’s has had terrible luck in keeping a professional hockey team over the years, as this represents the third time a club has moved away from the maritime city in recent memory. The Maple Leafs and Jets both once had affiliates there, before moving them into their respective metropolitan areas, just as Montreal has done today.
If a team ever were to head to Quebec City, perhaps St. John’s could be a successful fit, but for now the city must watch their third franchise leave in just over ten years. Montreal also announced that it will have a naming contest to determine what the new nickname of the team will be.
Backup Goalie Options For Toronto
After trading Jonathan Bernier to the Ducks earlier this week, the Maple Leafs are in the market for a new backup goalie. Head coach Mike Babcock told reporters that they’re looking for a “good pro,” implying that they’re looking for an experienced veteran to work behind 26 year old Frederik Andersen.
Unfortunately for Toronto, there aren’t many quality veterans available in free agency. There are four NHL free agents with at least 100 games of experience in Jhonas Enroth, Anders Lindback, Karri Ramo, and Ben Scrivens. However, all four of those players have either struggled in recent years or are considerably undersized for the position (Enroth) leading many to assume the team will ultimately trade for a backup instead. With that in mind, here are some potential veteran trade candidates for the Leafs.
Thomas Greiss (New York I.) – This past week, the Islanders re-signed J-F Berube giving them three goalies on one-way deals. Jaroslav Halak is the clear #1 while the fact they are keeping Berube around suggests that management is high on his potential. That leaves Greiss as potentially the odd man out. Greiss is coming off the best season of his career plus a strong playoff run so the asking price should be somewhat high. However, the Leafs would be getting an above average backup and would give themselves two quality options between the pipes each and every night.
Curtis McElhinney (Columbus) – The Blue Jackets have youngster Joonas Korpisalo waiting in the wings who handled himself quite well in 31 NHL games last season. McElhinney is coming off a down season but has been a reliable backup in previous years. Considering Columbus is looking to get younger, the asking price here wouldn’t be terribly high and would allow the Leafs to add a short-term fix while they let youngsters Garret Sparks and Antoine Bibeau battle it out in the minors for another year.
Ondrej Pavelec (Winnipeg) – After trading a bad contract in Bernier away, it wouldn’t make a lot of sense on the surface to turn around and trade for another one in Pavelec. However, the Leafs have a couple of similarly-priced deals in Milan Michalek and Colin Greening that they could potentially flip to offset the salary. A deal like this would give the Leafs someone that could slide into a #1 role if Andersen gets hurt while Winnipeg would free up a spot for Connor Hellebuyck to join the NHL team on a full-time basis.
Failing that, a trade for Michael Hutchinson from Winnipeg could be another possibility. While he doesn’t have a ton of NHL experience, he has seen action in at least 30 NHL games in each of the last two seasons and dealing him away would allow the Jets to move Hellebuyck up full-time as well.
There aren’t a lot of veteran netminders out there for the Leafs but they still should be able to add one without much difficulty between now and the start of training camp in September.