Salary Cap Deep Dive: Toronto Maple Leafs
Navigating the salary cap is one of the most important tasks for a front office. Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those who don’t often see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2025-26 season. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of PuckPedia. We’re currently covering the Atlantic Division, last up are the Maple Leafs.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Current Cap Hit: $94,621,472 (under the $95.5MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
F Easton Cowan (three years, $873.5K)
After a strong junior career, Cowan made the jump directly to the NHL and has been a capable player in a limited role. They’ll be hoping that he can move into a top-six role before too long (potentially as soon as next season) which could change his trajectory quickly. At this point, it seems more likely that he’d get a bridge deal (potentially in the $3MM to $4MM range) but if he becomes a top-six piece fairly soon and sticks, he could also wind up with a longer-term deal which could cost as much as double that amount.
Signed Through 2025-26, Non-Entry-Level
D Matt Benning ($1.25MM, UFA)
F Calle Jarnkrok ($2.1MM, UFA)
F Scott Laughton ($1.5MM, RFA)*
F Matias Maccelli ($3.425MM, RFA)
F Bobby McMann ($1.35MM, UFA)
F Nicholas Robertson ($1.825MM, RFA)
D Troy Stecher ($787.5K, UFA)
*-Philadelphia is retaining an additional $1.5MM on Laughton’s contract.
Maccelli was brought in from Utah in the hopes that he’d help replace some of the playmaking that left when Mitch Marner went to Vegas. Instead, he has bounced up and down and even in and out of the lineup as a healthy scratch at times while not producing as much as they hoped for. Owed a $4.11MM qualifying offer with arbitration rights, he’s a strong non-tender candidate unless they work out a cheaper deal closer to his current price before then. Laughton has seen his production tumble since joining Toronto. However, he’s still a strong defensive player and is having a career year at the faceoff dot. That should be enough to earn him at least a small raise on a multi-year pact even with his offensive struggles.
Jarnkrok is not the impactful utility player he was earlier in his career, resulting in several healthy scratches. If he doesn’t wind up going back overseas this summer, he’s probably looking at a contract closer to the league minimum. Robertson has taken some strides this season, putting him on pace for a career year while having arbitration rights this summer. A jump to the $3MM range isn’t unrealistic as a result.
McMann will be one of the more intriguing UFA options this summer, especially since a lot of the top players have already re-signed. Barring injury, he’s a lock for his second straight 20-goal season and will get there despite playing time that is in the low end for a second liner and is more like a high-end third liner. Tripling his current price seems quite likely; a bidding war could push it into the $5MM range.
Benning hasn’t been up with Toronto for most of the season and only gets a passing mention here because $100K is on their books as a dead cap charge while he’s with the Marlies. Stecher, meanwhile, has been a very serviceable waiver claim from Edmonton, going from a fringe blueliner to someone logging 20 minutes a night. Still, given how he has bounced around and is generally viewed as more of a depth player, he probably won’t get a huge boost on his next deal. Doubling this could be doable, however, which would be a nice outcome for someone who was on waivers just a few months ago.
Signed Through 2026-27
D Simon Benoit ($1.35MM, UFA)
D Brandon Carlo ($3.485MM, UFA)*
D Philippe Myers ($850K, UFA)
F Nicolas Roy ($3MM, UFA)
*-Boston is retaining an additional $615K on Carlo’s contract.
Roy came over from Vegas in the Marner sign-and-trade and has basically been the effective third liner he has been for most of his career. The price tag for those types of players has ticked up in recent years and should continue to do so in a more inflated cap environment. A bump to the $4MM territory could be doable while Laughton’s next contract this coming summer could serve as a good indicator of where Roy’s could land.
Toronto paid a high price to land Carlo at the trade deadline last season and it hasn’t quite worked out so far. Never a big point producer, even his defensive game has slipped a bit. Even so, he’ll be UFA-eligible at the age of 30 and is a big, right-shot player. Those elements should still land him a raise unless his play really falls off a cliff between now and then. A multi-year pact in the $4.5MM range might be the floor right now with a bump up from that if his performance rebounds next season.
Benoit has been a serviceable third-pairing player for most of his career but his limitations are well-known. It’s plausible that he stays in this area (even a jump to $1.5MM or so wouldn’t be surprising) but it seems unlikely that he’d command more than that unless he suddenly becomes more of a top-four option. Myers was once a quality prospect in Philadelphia but has been more of a fringe player in recent years. He’s likely to stay at the minimum salary and even securing a one-way deal isn’t a guarantee at this point.
Signed Through 2027-28
F Max Domi ($3.75MM, UFA)
D Oliver Ekman-Larsson ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Dakota Joshua ($3.25MM, UFA)
F Steven Lorentz ($1.35MM, UFA)
F Auston Matthews ($13.25MM, UFA)
G Joseph Woll ($3.67MM, UFA)
Matthews has opted for a shorter-term contract in each of his two non-entry-level negotiations. The idea was that doing so set him up best for a big payday. It worked the first time as this deal was briefly the record-setter for AAV. It’s hard to project that happening again, knowing some other contracts that have since been signed (and others to come) but if Matthews is open to a long-term pact this time around, a jump past the $15MM mark could be realistic, as long as his offensive drop this season isn’t a sign of things to come. However, if he wants another shorter-term agreement, the price tag could run a little higher but still not challenge for another league record.
Domi’s first season in Toronto was good enough to land him the multi-year commitment that he had been seeking for a while. Things haven’t gone as well since then, however. While he’s a strong playmaker, his lack of goals, a smaller stature, and a penchant for penalties could result in his market being more restricted than most again. Barring an improvement in his production over the next couple of years, he might have a hard time matching this price and term on his next contract.
Joshua was acquired over the offseason from Vancouver with the hopes that a change of scenery could get him back to his 2023-24 level. That hasn’t exactly happened as he has played more like a fourth liner making third-line money. He will need to rebound considerably in the back half of the deal to have any chance of matching this on his next contract. Lorentz rebounded well last season after a limited 2023-24 campaign in Florida and was able to earn some stability with this deal. For a fourth liner who can kill penalties, this is a reasonable contract but with his limited offensive upside, he’s probably not going to be able to command much more down the road.
Ekman-Larsson opted for stability as well back in 2024 with this deal, a four-year pact that takes him through his age-36 season. After a more limited role in Florida following a buyout from Vancouver, he has been deployed regularly in a top-four role and has thrived. Given how much he has played over the years, there could be some concern of him slowing down at the back of the contract but right now, this is definitely one of their better bargains.
When healthy, Woll has looked like a legitimate NHL starting goaltender. However, staying healthy has been a challenge in recent years which has limited his earnings upside. If he has a good year or two on this deal and can play 50-plus games, doubling this price tag is certainly realistic. However, if he continues to be in the 35-40-game range (either through injuries or being in a straight platoon), Woll might be more in the $5MM territory moving forward.
Maple Leafs Activate Dakota Joshua From LTIR
2/25: As expected, Toronto has activated Joshua off of LTIR.
2/24: The Maple Leafs will activate winger Dakota Joshua from long-term injured reserve before tomorrow’s game against the Lightning, according to Sportsnet’s Anna Dua. Whether he plays or not remains to be seen – Joshua “will have his time managed” during this week’s back-to-back, Dua writes – but he will be available. They have an open roster spot, so no corresponding move will be required.
It will be Joshua’s first appearance of the calendar year if he plays. He sustained a kidney laceration on Dec. 28 against the Red Wings. He started skating last month but wasn’t close to returning due to the risk of re-injury. Now that it’s mitigated, he’ll be able to step back in.
When the Maple Leafs surrendered a fourth-round pick to acquire Joshua from the Canucks last summer, they were hoping he was a buy-low candidate that could return to the 18-goal, 32-point form he showed with Vancouver in 2023-24. The bottom-six grinder landed a four-year, $13MM extension at the time as a result, but he regressed to seven goals and 14 points in 57 games the following season after recovering from testicular cancer.
So far in Toronto, he’s produced at around the same pace. He’s managed six goals and 10 points in 36 games, working out to 0.28 points per game – just a bit higher than last year’s pace and still below his 0.32 career average. That’s even with Joshua shooting at a rather high 18.8% clip. He’s averaging just 0.89 shots on goal per game this season, his lowest figure since a 12-game rookie trial with the Blues in 2020-21.
Regardless, head coach Craig Berube has leaned on Joshua heavily in defensive situations at even strength. He’s started 72.6% of his 5-on-5 shifts in the D-zone, so even if he’s not playing a large role on Toronto’s penalty kill, his -2 rating is a strong one considering the type of deployment he’s been given. For a Leafs team that’s underwater in every possession metric, getting a trusted defensive piece like Joshua back isn’t without virtue as they try to make up the six-point difference keeping them out of a playoff spot.
Chris Tanev Resumes Skating
Due to a significant groin injury, veteran defenseman Chris Tanev has been limited to 11 games this season with the Toronto Maple Leafs. Again trying to rehabilitate the injury, THN’s Nick Barden reported that Tanev took to the ice on his own today, and the Maple Leafs will decide by the end of the weekend if he’s good to return to practice.
Maple Leafs Reassign Bo Groulx, William Villeneuve
Feb. 20: Groulx is headed back to the AHL today along with defenseman William Villeneuve, who was summoned two days ago, per a team announcement.
Feb. 19: The Maple Leafs announced they’ve recalled center Benoit-Olivier Groulx from AHL Toronto. He’ll join the team for today’s practice with forward Max Domi absent due to personal reasons, in addition to Auston Matthews remaining unavailable as he looks to captain Team USA to a gold medal at the Winter Olympics.
Groulx, 26, was a second-round pick by the Ducks in 2018. He has 65 NHL games to his name, all coming with Anaheim from 2021-24. After making a career-high 45 appearances in the 2023-24 campaign, the Ducks non-tendered him. He’s spent the last two seasons exclusively in the AHL on NHL. deals, first on a two-way pact with the Rangers in 2024-25 before signing a two-year, one-way, league-minimum deal with Toronto last summer.
The 6’2″, 205-lb pivot has only demonstrated limited offensive upside in the NHL but has been one of the best two-way forwards in the minors over the last two seasons. Once named the QMJHL’s best defensive forward during his junior days, he’s racked up 22 goals and 42 points in 47 games to lead the Marlies in scoring, along with a +9 rating.
He’ll now look to make a strong impression in whatever practice deployment he gets to boost his chances of a call-up heading into next season. Since he signed a two-year deal, his $812,500 cap hit next season will actually be less than the new league minimum of $850,000.
No Progress In McMann Extension Talks
Maple Leafs winger Bobby McMann is the middle of a career year and appears to be poised to cash in on his next contract. While Toronto would like to re-sign him, talks don’t appear to be going well as The Fourth Period’s David Pagnotta reported on a Leafs Morning Take appearance (video link) that there has been no progression in those discussions. The 29-year-old is on a very affordable $1.35MM price tag which could fit in on most contender’s cap structures which is part of the reason Toronto is believed to be seeking a first-round pick for his services. If the two sides can’t work out an extension over the next couple of weeks, we’ll find out if his contract is valuable enough to net the Maple Leafs the return they seek.
Maple Leafs Recall William Villeneuve
The Maple Leafs announced they’ve recalled defenseman William Villeneuve from AHL Toronto. He’ll give the Leafs an extra defenseman at practices for the time being while they await Oliver Ekman-Larsson‘s return from representing Sweden at the Olympics.
Villeneuve hasn’t gotten a recall yet this season. Some have questioned that decision given the lack of puck-moving ability on Toronto’s blue line outside of Ekman-Larsson and Morgan Rielly. The 23-year-old was a fourth-round pick in 2020 and is now in his fourth pro season.
Last year marked a breakout for the 6’2″ righty. After a pair of decent showings lower in the Marlies’ lineup, he had his minutes elevated and exploded for 36 assists and 40 points in 55 games, leading the team’s defense in scoring along with a team-high +17 rating. His stock has tanked in 2025-26, though. With 18 points in 40 games, he’s on pace for the worst offensive performance of his professional career and has flipped to a team-worst -8 rating. His drop-off is part of a larger decline from the Marlies’ roster, though – he still leads their blue line in scoring.
His NHL-ready size and longer body of two-way success in the AHL still has him ranked as Toronto’s No. 5 prospect and No. 2-ranked defenseman, Terry Koshan of the Toronto Sun opined earlier this month. A pending restricted free agent, he’s a clear bet to receive a qualifying offer for the second year in a row and could be in line for his NHL debut down the stretch if Toronto sells off a defender or two ahead of the trade deadline.
Nylander Feeling Good But Still Managing His Injury
While Maple Leafs winger William Nylander was able to get back in Toronto’s lineup before the Olympics, he hasn’t been practicing fully with Sweden at the Olympics. That has led to speculation that the lingering groin issue he has been dealing with is still bothering him. As Michael Traikos of The Hockey News relays, the veteran winger indicated that while he’s managing the injury, he’s feeling good at the moment. Nylander has a goal and an assist in three games so far with the Swedes wrapping up preliminary round action earlier today. That has to be encouraging for Toronto as they’ll need him at his best if they’re going to have any shot at trying to close the gap in the Atlantic Division to get back into the playoff picture.
Trade Deadline Primer: Toronto Maple Leafs
With the Olympic break upon us, the trade deadline is under a month away. Where does each team stand, and what moves should they be looking to make? We continue our look around the league at teams on the playoff bubble, next up: the Maple Leafs.
The Toronto Maple Leafs sit just six points out of a Wild Card spot with the Olympic break in full swing. Yet, the Maple Leafs season has felt far more disastrous, plagued by low-scoring stars and new faces unable to bring a spark. Toronto has tread water for much of the year and now face the difficult decision of whether to try and move up, or down, in the standings. Their stars are in their primes and playoffs are still in sight – but Toronto is also low on both assets and cap space. How they handle the 2026 Deadline could be the first push into new waters for the Maple Leafs organization.
Record
27-21-9 (6th in Atlantic Division)
Deadline Status
Sellers
Deadline Cap Space
$5.08MM on deadline day, 0/3 retention slots used, 46/50 contracts per Puckpedia.
Upcoming Draft Picks
2026: TOR 3rd, TOR 5th, SJS 6th
2027: TOR 2nd, TOR 4th, TOR 5th, PHI 6th, TOR 6th, TOR 7th
Trade Chips
The Maple Leafs moved much of their remaining trade assets to bring in Scott Laughton and Brandon Carlo at the 2025 Trade Deadline. One year later, Laughton could now sit at the top of Toronto’s market options – though certainly at a much cheaper price. He hasn’t found his footing in Toronto’s middle-six, with just 11 points in 39 games this season and 15 points in 59 games as a Maple Leaf. Laughton is also averaging just 13:43 in ice time on the year, his lowest mark since 2017-18. He still provides a veteran presence down the depth chart, and special-teams upside, that could be enough to sway a team looking to add to their bottom-six. After acquiring him for a prospect and a first-round pick, the Maple Leafs could hope to recoup a draft pick near the top of Day Two in another Laughton trade.
Toronto has two more options on the wings in Bobby McMann and Matias Maccelli. McMann has dug in a role in the Leafs’ middle-six with his breakaway speed and aggressive forechecking. He leads all Maple Leafs forwards in hits (126) and ranks sixth on the team in total scoring (32 points). It has, in some ways, been a career-year for the 29 year old, who seems to be finding his groove as the tenacious worker behind Toronto’s stars. That value and momentum could be both be shrewd adds on the open market, maybe even enough to swing Toronto back a roster player in the right package. Other teams will find a more skill-first – and surely, a cheaper – option in Maccelli. The speedster has been quiet in his first year with the Maple Leafs after a tremulous end to his time with the Utah Mammoth. He has 24 points and a minus-12 in 46 games this season. Maccelli projects as a bottom-six winger – even despite once reaching 40 assists in a single season. He is an upside buy who, like Laughton, could land enough of a return to help Toronto stock their cabinets.
Many of the remaining Maple Leafs veterans could find their way into trade discussions. Nicolas Roy has proven to be a standup, bottom-six center capable of playing both sides of the puck. He has 20 points and a plus-two in 54 games this season, making him one of only three Maple Leafs forwards with at least 20 points and a positive plus-minus. Roy has also won 53.6 percent of the 577 faceoffs he has taken this season. Toronto could also offer fourth-liners Steven Lorentz and Calle Jarnkrok to teams in need of more forwards.
Trade Needs
More Stake in the Future: With so little to offer, the primary focus of Toronto’s Deadline should be restocking their cabinets. The Leafs only have three picks in this year’s draft, which would tie their 2021 and 2023 classes for fewest in Maple Leafs history with no additions. Toronto made good work of those groups – landing Matthew Knies in the 2021 second-round and Easton Cowan in the 2023 first-round. But with so few prospects vying for NHL ice time, Toronto could benefit from giving their scouts a few more chances to find gems. The Maple Leafs could add two or three more picks before the fifth round by moving out some of their veterans on the fringe. Those deals would help Toronto hedge their bets for the rest of the 2020s, while also only expanding their space to land a big fish.
A Difference Maker: Even with Knies growing into the spot left by Mitch Marner, the Maple Leafs still seem to be missing a true difference-maker in the lineup. Toronto’s focus should only shift to buying if they’re able to land a player who can step into the top-nine right away. Landing a big fish like Nazem Kadri or Robert Thomas would require capital that the Maple Leafs simply don’t have; while focusing on veteran leaders like Boone Jenner or Brayden Schenn would risk repeating the Laughton trade. Toronto will have to find a way to bridge the gap and land the needle-pushers in the market’s second-layer. Smart negotiating could be enough to pull former Conn Smythe Trophy winner Jonathan Marchessault away from the struggling Nashville Predators for only a few picks. The same could be said about center Ryan O’Reilly who has no trade protection on his current deal – though chances of that are slim after his previous, and very brief, stint in Toronto. Instead, the Maple Leafs could look to pay a bit more for Vancouver Canucks wingers Conor Garland or Jake DeBrusk. Both bring strong impacts while Vancouver is certainly focused on the future after dealing away Quinn Hughes. Forwards Miroslav Holinka and Nicholas Moldenhauer could be interesting options to include in negotiations with some of the league’s rebuilders.
The Danger Of Signing Goalies To Lucrative Contracts
The New York Rangers and Vancouver Canucks are two of the NHL’s worst teams this season and are both on the verge of massive roster changes. While both teams face unique challenges, one parallel is that they’ve made a mess of their goaltending finances with pricey extensions that were miscalculations.
The Rangers and Canucks are far from alone in this predicament. High-priced extensions have also burned several other teams at the bottom of the standings, leaving them with goaltenders who had been performing well but whose play fell off a cliff after signing their new deals.
That isn’t necessarily the case for Shesterkin, however, it is the case for Linus Ullmark of the Ottawa Senators, Juuse Saros of the Nashville Predators, and Jacob Markstrom of the New Jersey Devils, who are all making big money on recent contract extensions, with no guarantees their play will turn around. This has left three teams with win-now rosters featuring goaltenders who are vastly overpaid.
It’s become a trend over the past five-plus years that teams signing goaltenders to expensive deals must be seriously concerned about their performance throughout the term of the agreement.
There is concern about every player’s performance after they sign a lucrative long-term deal. However, goaltenders have become a unique cause for concern lately, and it’s hard to say why.
In the late 1990s and throughout the 2000s, many veteran goaltenders on the wrong side of 30 would sign expensive long-term deals without so much as a second thought from their new teams. In July 2002, for example, goalie Curtis Joseph signed a three-year, $24MM contract with the Detroit Red Wings, even though it wasn’t the best offer on the table.
Joseph had a three-year $26MM offer from the Toronto Maple Leafs but opted to move to Detroit. Toronto then pivoted and signed Ed Belfour to a two-year, $13.5MM deal.
By today’s standards, those contracts aren’t eye-popping, and the term is relatively short. But Belfour and Joseph were 37 and 35, respectively, and there was a chance their play would drop off significantly during the brief time they were signed.
Nowadays, it’s hard to imagine a team giving $8MM a season to a 35-year-old goaltender, and Joseph’s deal was inked 23 and a half years ago. The Senators gave Ullmark four years and $8.25MM annually just last year, but he had just turned 32 and was two seasons removed from a Vezina Trophy as the league’s top goaltender.
It was a pricey gamble for Ottawa and hasn’t looked like good value this season, but Ullmark has been dealing with personal issues, so it’s hard to project how the deal will work out long-term.
Circling back to the Rangers and Canucks, they are a tale of two teams whose expensive goaltending has led to team-wide issues, but for wildly different reasons. In Vancouver, Thatcher Demko was signed to a lucrative three-year deal at the start of free agency, worth $8.5MM annually.
It was a gamble by Vancouver, as they hoped the former Vezina Trophy finalist could bounce back from a poor showing last season. Had Demko had a good year, he would have been a candidate to get $9MM or more on a new contract, but Vancouver thought it was wise to jump the queue. It has not turned out well.
If Demko had played well, Vancouver likely would have paid him an AAV slightly higher than the $8.5MM they gave him, but would’ve been on the hook for more term, which would’ve been riskier. Instead, Vancouver made a different bet and is now on the hook for more term than Demko would’ve received in free agency. But hindsight is 20/20, and for the Canucks, they are stuck with the Demko deal, one they’d love to have back.
In New York, it was a different calculation. Rangers’ general manager Chris Drury believed he had a Stanley Cup contender on his hands, which meant doing everything he could to retain his Vezina Trophy-winning goaltender, Igor Shesterkin. Drury moved out his captain, Jacob Trouba, to open up space to sign Shesterkin to a record-breaking eight-year, $92MM contract.
While it was the right on-ice move given Trouba’s cap hit relative to his play, the Rangers have never been the same since the trade. New York fell off a cliff last season and has remained at the bottom of the league this year, despite Shesterkin being good.
But that is the issue: Shesterkin has only been good. In the years leading up to his extension, Shesterkin was elite.
His play in those seasons masked many of the Rangers’ problems and led Drury and New York management to think the team was much better than it actually was. Shesterkin’s goaltending was a mask, hiding the fact that Drury had built a fatally flawed roster that relied too much on out-of-this-world netminding, which was clearly unsustainable.
While the Rangers, Canucks, Devils and Predators aren’t the only teams with pricey goaltending, they are the most apparent examples of paying a premium for goaltending. But even middle-of-the-pack teams can run into issues where their extensions turn into disasters.
There are good examples in Washington: a few years ago, with Darcy Kuemper, who had just won a Stanley Cup, and Philipp Grubauer, who had been solid for years before signing as a free agent with Seattle and becoming unplayable in the NHL. Matt Murray in Ottawa was the same story, but none is more egregious and obvious than Tristan Jarry in Pittsburgh, who was recently dealt.
Pittsburgh is a relevant example because of Stuart Skinner, who has been a revelation with the Penguins but is a UFA at the end of the season. Pittsburgh already has its goalie of the future in tow in Sergey Murashov, and the Penguins would be wise to ride Skinner into the playoffs and then let him walk in the offseason if his salary demands exceed $5MM annually, which they surely will. It should be interesting to see the Skinner story unfold, but there is plenty of evidence that the Penguins would be wise to avoid giving term to a netminder who is unpredictable.
NHL Teams Continue To Avoid Roster Re-Starts
Several NHL teams have been major disappointments this season, particularly the New York Rangers and Vancouver Canucks. While the Rangers have made it clear they intend to retool, the Canucks have refrained from labelling their plans, possibly due to ongoing roster assessments or other internal considerations. Even teams that have entered clear rebuilds have become apprehensive about fully starting over (e.g., the Calgary Flames), for various reasons. PHR had a piece last year that addressed why teams are choosing a retool over a rebuild, but this piece will focus on why teams have shied away from ever starting over.
The reluctance to start over makes sense from the team’s perspective, even if it hinders the team’s long-term prospects of becoming competitive again. The Rangers are a perfect example, having invested a pile of past development years into players such as Igor Shesterkin and Alexis Lafreniere. This is common among NHL teams, who constantly fall into the sunk-cost fallacy of continuing to throw money and time at a player, even though he will never be what they were hoping for or effective enough to justify the costs they’ve paid.
Beyond past costs, teams are also trapped by future expenses from contract extensions given to players who are not performing up to their AAV. This is something the Rangers are arguably dealing with in the cases of Shesterkin and Lafreniere, another bitter pill for management to swallow, as they are now in a position where they feel as though they are throwing both past and future years away on a player they piled so many resources into.
Those extensions were signed by Rangers general manager Chris Drury, and his fingerprints are all over this team. Drury has invested everything into his current club, from draft picks to term to cap space to his public messaging. It’s part of the reason he has recently talked of pivoting to a retool. Walking away completely from this core would signal a massive failure on his part. Even if the pieces in place probably aren’t the ones you’d want to retool around, Drury will likely keep a lot of them, because he staked his reputation on acquiring them.
GMs who build a team and then have to blow it up are essentially admitting they were wrong in their roster construction. Few NHL GMs want to do that, and most front offices would rather be a consistent disappointment than openly admit they are wrong.
And therein lies a big problem in the NHL. Executives aren’t necessarily rewarded for championships; they are rewarded for not collapsing. Making the playoffs is safe; finishing just outside the playoffs shows stability, but tearing down a roster and rebuilding it is a considerable risk, one that can cost you your job. A full-scale rebuild requires several ugly seasons. It means fans with brown paper bags on their heads attending games, and it means an impatient owner circling the offices, wondering when the team will turn the corner. Rebuilding is brutal and ugly, and it requires patience. Retooling is more manageable, quicker, and often leads to immediate, albeit tepid, results.
Retools can also sell hope, and teams can see it in a retool. Owners prefer hope to being told they have to tear down their team, and hope sells more tickets than telling fans you are going to start over. That matters more to owners: a full building over a full draft-pick ledger. A middle-of-the-pack team with designs on limping into the playoffs is easier to market than a disciplined rebuild with zero guarantees.
So, NHL teams opt for the theatre of optimism over meaningful structural change, and it’s tough to fault them given the incentives at play. One of the most famous examples of this is the Toronto Maple Leafs of the late 2000s, who were managed by Brian Burke. The management group had assembled a promising prospect pool but grew impatient in September 2009 and made the trade with Boston to acquire Phil Kessel. The rest, of course, is history: Tyler Seguin was drafted in 2010 with the Maple Leafs’ first-round pick, and defenseman Dougie Hamilton was drafted a year later with Toronto’s 2011 first-round pick. Had Toronto simply been patient, there is no telling where that iteration of the Maple Leafs would have ended up.
Front offices dread wasting years, and in the early stages of a rebuild, there will be wasted years. It’s also why teams rush rebuilds and mess them up. That is effectively what Drury did. He became impatient and made bold moves to bolster his lineup, which ultimately blew up his prospect system and, eventually, his NHL roster. The Ottawa Senators are guilty of the same thing, taking wild swings early in their rebuild on Alex DeBrincat and Jakob Chychrun. Teams trade their future away and call it supporting the core. They extend players to justify their original bet on a player (see last week’s piece on this). They shift their own goals from winning the Stanley Cup one day to simply not having to start over.
Again, it’s hard to fault GMs for doing this. The NHL’s structure used to encourage full-scale rebuilds, but now the rules discourage them. The draft lottery has made it harder to build through top picks; the salary cap floor requires acquiring veteran players; and some high draft picks take longer to develop. All of that has made the retool, or stated differently, the half-rebuild, safer. Even if the retool leads nowhere, which it often does.
The Pittsburgh Penguins are a prime example of this. In the 2022-23 season, it became clear the Penguins needed to get younger, but general manager Ron Hextall doubled down on his roster, trading for veterans such as Nick Bonino, Mikael Granlund, and others. He also sent Brock McGinn, Kasperi Kapanen, and Teddy Blueger out the door. It was a clear case of doing something now to change the furniture, hoping it would improve. It failed miserably. Hextall had stood still for most of his tenure in Pittsburgh, and while his flurry of moves that year showed urgency, he accomplished nothing and was fired at the end of the season.
The complex reality in the NHL is that teams can’t rebuild under current management, not in any meaningful way, because it would expose all of management’s mistakes. Bad drafting, poor development, bad signings, cultural rot in the dressing room, the list goes on. Starting over requires a top-down reset, from the president of hockey ops and general manager on down to the players, and most teams can’t stomach that kind of carnage or don’t have the humility to admit things aren’t working. This is why teams don’t rebuild until it’s five years too late, and the only choice they have is to start over and wait five to seven years for results.
The Maple Leafs are currently at that point. They can retool around Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and Morgan Rielly, or they could begin the painful teardown and build a whole new culture in Toronto. Given the incentives at play, it’s hard to believe they would choose the latter over the former, even if it might be the better choice for the franchise long term.