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Arbitration Breakdown: Nicholas Robertson

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Every player to file for arbitration so far this offseason has avoided a hearing, and only one case even got remotely close. That likely won’t be the case for the Maple Leafs and Nicholas Robertson, who have until their hearing starts on Sunday to settle before an arbitrator’s award will decide their fate.

Filings

Team: $1.2MM
Player: $2.25MM
Midpoint: $1.725MM

(via Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet)

The Numbers

Nothing much really changed last season for Robertson. After a trade request last summer didn’t come to fruition, he ended up inking a one-year, $875K deal to return to Toronto in hopes of landing a more consistent role in their top-nine forward group. That didn’t happen. While he did make a career-high 69 appearances, the 23-year-old’s usage remained conservative at 12 minutes per game, and his point pace dropped off from his 2023-24 performance. He finished the year with 15 goals – seventh on the team – but only seven assists for 22 points, a rate of 0.32 per game after he recorded 0.48 per game the year before in lesser minutes.

The younger brother of Stars centerpiece Jason Robertson has always been viewed as one of the higher-ceiling young offensive options in Toronto’s system. He’s shown it in flashes, but it’s clear at this stage he needs a longer leash and more minutes to truly be effective without many other elements to his game (although he did manage a career-high 79 hits last year).

Whether he’ll receive that in Toronto remains to be seen. In any event, the Leafs’ seven-figure filing is significantly higher than his $775K cap hit from 2024-25, so it’s clear they’re anticipating on him playing a slightly more regular role in 2025-26 and will presumably count on him for more depth scoring in the wake of Mitch Marner’s departure. But for a player with just over 150 career appearances, it’s going to be a tad difficult to project how a potential hearing may shake out.

2024-25 Stats: 69 GP, 15-7–22, -1 rating, 16 PIMs, 112 shots, 12:00 ATOI
Career Stats: 156 GP, 32-24–56, +2 rating, 24 PIMs, 258 shots, 11:28 ATOI

Potential Comparables

Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency, which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used.  The contracts below fit within those parameters.  Player salaries (or current-year equivalents) also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides.  Career stats listed are as of the time of signing.

Jonatan Berggren (Red Wings) – Berggren is a year older than Robertson and has fewer seasons of NHL experience, but they’ve both clicked at around a 30-point pace for their career in similar deployment. Like Robertson, Berggren’s platform year saw him play the most games of his career, but not with the best per-game production rate. While an imperfect science, there’s good evidence for both sides here to argue for a deal closer to the midpoint rather than an extreme swing toward either Toronto’s or the player’s filing.

Contract (2025): One year, $1.825MM AAV, 1.9 CH%
Platform Stats: 75 GP, 12-12–24, -13 rating, 14 PIMs, 88 shots, 12:59 ATOI
Career Stats: 154 GP, 29-29–58, -28 rating, 32 PIMs, 200 shots, 13:01 ATOI

Sonny Milano (Ducks) – This may be the best comparable available aside from its outdatedness. Milano was also coming off his age-23 season and, like Robertson, had five years of NHL experience despite the lower games-played total. Note the higher cap hit percentage since the deal was signed five years ago – that might be something Robertson’s camp puts on the table to get him closer to or at the $2MM mark for his award (a 2.1 CH% with a $95.5MM cap ceiling is almost exactly $2MM on the dot).

Contract (2020): Two years, $1.7MM AAV, 2.1 CH%
Platform Stats: 55 GP, 7-16–23, -7 rating, 26 PIMs, 75 shots, 13:06 ATOI
Career Stats: 125 GP, 22-25–47, -17 rating, 36 PIMs, 153 shots, 12:07 ATOI

Jack Quinn (Sabres) – Quinn comes across near the higher end of these comparables. While the perception around Quinn having a down year last season may have some truth to it, the numbers still point to him being at least a tier above Robertson in terms of what he’s actually produced. Add in Quinn’s draft pedigree as a No. 9 overall pick, and it’s easier to see why Robertson’s filing wasn’t higher than it was, although his camp may still attempt to draw comparisons to convince the arbitrator to side with them outright.

Contract (2025): Two years, $3.375MM AAV, 3.5 CH%
Platform Stats: 74 GP, 15-24–39, -18 rating, 18 PIMs, 123 shots, 14:52 ATOI
Career Stats: 178 GP, 39-58–97, -26 rating, 41 PIMs, 311 shots, 14:33 ATOI

Filip Zadina (Red Wings) – Aside from the draft pedigree, Zadina’s comparable here is also a pretty direct one. He was only one year younger than Robertson was at the time of their contract signings, but had seen more deployment to the tune of similar career offensive results with worse defensive impacts. Given the cap percentage, this would come across as a more advantageous comparable for Robertson.

Contract (2022): Three years, $1.825MM AAV, 2.2 CH%
Platform Stats: 74 GP, 10-14–24, -24 rating, 10 PIMs, 154 shots, 14:11 ATOI
Career Stats: 160 GP, 25-36–61, -46 rating, 12 PIMs, 329 shots, 15:13 ATOI

Projection

Since Robertson was the one to file and has multiple years of team control remaining, the Maple Leafs can pick a one or two-year term for his next contract after the arbitrator awards the AAV. Considering his inconsistent year-to-year pace, it stands to reason they’d pick a one-year deal to make him a more attractive trade chip if he doesn’t pan out this year (or give themselves the option to walk away entirely next summer).

The comparable contracts advocate for a deal near the midpoint but slightly in Robertson’s favor, likely in the $1.8MM-$2MM range. It may not be as much as he wanted, but it still doubles last year’s salary and will give him a seven-figure salary for the first time in his career.

Image courtesy of John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images.

Easton Cowan Hoping To Join Maple Leafs Out Of Training Camp

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After sending All-Star winger Mitch Marner to the Vegas Golden Knights in a sign-and-trade, the Toronto Maple Leafs have looked to fill their new offensive void by committee. Using the cap space left by Marner, the Maple Leafs have acquired Matias Maccelli, Nicolas Roy, and Dakota Joshua via trade. Still, there is a promising prospect eager to be part of the new equation.

Enter the 28th overall pick of the 2023 NHL Draft, Easton Cowan. Cowan is coming off an impressive three-year stint with the OHL’s London Knights, scoring 83 goals and 218 points in 168 games, with a +72 rating. He has also been a phenom in postseason action, scoring 32 goals and 94 points in 55 playoff games with a +41 rating, helping the Knights win two OHL championships and reach two Memorial Cup Final appearances, winning the most recent one this past season.

In a recent interview on Sportsnet’s The FAN Morning Show with hosts Ben Ennis and Brent Gunning, Knights head coach Dale Hunter said he expects Cowan to make the Maple Leafs roster out of training camp, saying, “He’s going to push to make the team and play well for the Leafs. Every organization needs young guys pushing to make the team, and it’ll make the Leafs better. I’m betting he’s going to make it, so that’s a good thing for the Leafs.”

Although it’s nice to hear a positive recommendation from his recent coach, Cowan has enough confidence for the both of them. During a team media availability after a development camp skate in early July, Cowan was quoted as saying, “This time last year, I wasn’t as good as I am now. Just being able to manage the puck better, I’ve learned that a lot this year, and obviously with the Knights organization, they helped me out a lot. I felt when games got bigger, I got better. Those are the games I love to play in, when there’s a lot of people watching and there’s high stakes.”

If it’s a high-stakes environment he craves, it’s a high-stakes environment he shall receive in Toronto. Although it was only the second time that the Maple Leafs had moved beyond the opening round of the playoffs in the last two decades, the postseason fell well short of expectations. Of arguably any team in the NHL for the foreseeable future, the stakes are the highest in Toronto.

Unfortunately for Cowan, he’ll have to have a flawless training camp to crack the opening night roster. The Maple Leafs already have 14 forwards signed to one-way contracts next season, without counting RFA forward Nicholas Robertson, who may be back with the club despite his ongoing trade request.

His pathway will become extremely narrow if Toronto decides to retain Robertson for the upcoming season. However, he could take one of the roster spots from Calle Järnkrok or Michael Pezzetta. Assuming he can beat out one of the latter two for a roster spot, Cowan could then work his way up to a top-six role throughout the regular season.

East Notes: Robertson, Biondi, Gardner

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Even if the Maple Leafs don’t plan on keeping winger Nicholas Robertson around long-term, they should do their best to settle with the restricted free agent before his arbitration hearing on Sunday, David Alter of The Hockey News opines.

He cites a recent example in Toronto, goaltender Ilya Samsonov, who had a one-year, $3.55MM deal handed down through arbitration for the 2023-24 season. Any trade value he had was tanked by his poor performance that year – something Samsonov admitted was influenced in part by the stress of the hearing – and he ended up on waivers and later left in free agency.

Players seeing their performance and confidence dip after an arbitration hearing isn’t a new phenomenon, and it’s something players are being more public about in the last few years. Hearing reasons laid out by your team for why you should be paid less than market value is an understandably unsettling experience. For the high-ceiling Robertson, who’s already had his development and confidence stunted by long strings of healthy scratches and limited deployment that led to a trade request last year, that’s not something Toronto can afford to saddle him with to continue getting positive value out of him, whether that’s via trade or with his on-ice play.

More news and notes out of the Eastern Conference:

  • After going unsigned by the Canadiens, who drafted him in the fourth round in 2020, forward Blake Biondi will begin his pro career in the Hurricanes organization this season on a contract with the AHL’s Chicago Wolves. The 23-year-old recently spoke to NHL.com’s Kurt Dusterberg about the significant injury-related and personal adversity he faced during his five-year run in college with the University of Minnesota-Duluth and Notre Dame, but called the opportunity with the Wolves “a great path for me” to continue his development toward landing an NHL contract. The former Minnesota high school star scored 12 goals and 27 points in 38 games last season for Notre Dame.
  • While Canada’s NHL goaltending stable has been relatively weak in the past few years, Blue Jackets prospect Evan Gardner is a name to watch in the next wave of prospects hoping to change that, writes Scott Wheeler of The Athletic. The 2024 second-rounder has put up a pair of spectacular seasons in junior hockey for the WHL’s Saskatoon Blades, leading the league in GAA and SV% in his draft year and posting totals of 2.46 and .917, respectively, in 74 career games for the Blades with seven shutouts. While he hasn’t logged any international experience for Canada, he’s on their roster for this week’s World Junior Summer Showcase and is looking to work his way onto their roster for the main WJC in the winter.

Maple Leafs Having Trouble Moving Calle Järnkrok

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Buffalo acquired Timmins from the Penguins on draft day in something of a salary dump, sending older, more expensive righty Connor Clifton to Pittsburgh. The Sabres were his third team in a few months after beginning the season with the Maple Leafs, where the offensive-minded righty only had eight points in 51 games. He was then traded to the Penguins at the deadline as the Leafs freed up roster space to make other pickups, notably Brandon Carlo and Scott Laughton.

General manager Kevyn Adams said when Buffalo picked him that he’s a player they’ve had their eyes on for a while. Timmins could be in line for an increased role in Buffalo with only Michael Kesselring alongside him as a right-shot defenseman on their projected active roster, and because of that, he’s likely looking for more than what the Sabres are currently willing to offer. The 2017 No. 32 overall pick has 46 points in 159 career NHL games with the Avalanche, Coyotes, Maple Leafs, and Penguins.

  • Things are similarly quiet with the Maple Leafs as they continue to shop veteran forward Calle Järnkrok to clear cap space, Pagnotta said. There haven’t been any teams linked to him as “the market hasn’t been vibrant,” Pagnotta wrote, but Toronto continues to make clear he’s available as they eye other moves to help fill the Mitch Marner void. While he only has one year left on his deal, they’re inhibited by Järnkrok’s 10-team no-trade list and the fact that he’s only played in 71 out of a possible 164 games (43.3%) over the last two seasons due to various injuries. He had one goal and seven points in 19 games last season after recovering from sports hernia surgery.

Arbitration Schedule For Remaining Cases Finalized

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The arbitration hearing dates for the few remaining unsettled cases have been finalized, PuckPedia reports:

F Kaapo Kakko, Kraken: July 25

G Arvid Soderblom, Blackhawks: July 28

F Maxim Tsyplakov, Islanders: July 29

D Dylan Samberg, Jets: July 30

D Conor Timmins, Sabres: Aug. 2

F Nicholas Robertson, Maple Leafs: Aug. 3

D Jayden Struble, Canadiens: Aug. 3

There are only seven out of this year’s initial 11 player-elected arbitration cases still without a resolution as the hearings approach. Winnipeg had three of the players on that list and has settled with two of them, reaching a two-year, $3.7MM settlement with Morgan Barron and a substantial six-year, $45MM deal for Gabriel Vilardi.

The Ducks also had two arbitration cases on that list, but settled with both of them in the past few days. Depth defenseman Drew Helleson got a two-year, $2.2MM contract, while emerging star goaltender Lukas Dostal signed a five-year, $32.5MM deal.

There were two team-elected arbitration cases this year, the Sabres’ Bowen Byram and the Mammoth’s Jack McBain, but both have been settled.

As for the seven players above, they can continue talks with their clubs on a new deal until the hearing begins. After that, they’re bound to the arbitrator’s decision.

Players who reach an arbitration hearing are only eligible to sign a one or two-year contract. Since the player filed for arbitration in all seven cases above, the team gets to choose the contract length after receiving the arbitrator’s decision on the AAV. However, only Robertson, Soderblom, and Struble would be eligible for two-year contracts. Everyone else is one year away from being eligible for unrestricted free agency status, so they can’t receive a multi-year arbitration award.

If the arbitration award exceeds $4.85MM in any case, the team can decline it and allow the player to become an unrestricted free agent.

Maple Leafs Acquire Dakota Joshua From Canucks

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The Maple Leafs have acquired forward Dakota Joshua from the Canucks in exchange for their 2028 fourth-round pick, according to a team announcement.

It’s a homecoming of sorts for Joshua, whom Toronto drafted in the fifth round of the 2014 draft. He never signed with the Leafs, though, and had his signing rights traded to the Blues after he wrapped up his collegiate career with Ohio State in 2019.

Joshua worked his way up the St. Louis system over the next few years, playing 42 games under head coach Craig Berube, whom he now reunites with in Toronto. After establishing himself as an NHLer in the 2021-22 campaign, he left for Vancouver in free agency on a two-year, $1.65MM contract.

The 6’3″ forward was a high-end fourth-line piece for the Canucks out of the gate but really flourished in the 2023-24 campaign. After being moved up to a third-line role, he was a spectacular checking winger with a team-leading 245 hits while also contributing 32 points in 63 games, a 42-point pace had he stayed healthy.

Despite there being clear regression indicators – an unsustainably high 21.4% shooting percentage among them – Vancouver committed to Joshua on a four-year, $13MM deal with trade protection to keep him from testing free agency last summer. He has a 12-team no-trade clause, which presumably did not include Toronto.

Joshua’s season last year was a rocky one, but for more than on-ice reasons. He missed the first couple of months after announcing late in the offseason he’d undergone surgery to address testicular cancer, which thankfully hasn’t had further impacts on his health. He also dealt with a leg injury that cost him most of January, only making 57 appearances in all. His scoring cratered, posting a 7-7–14 line, while seeing his ice time drop back under 13 minutes per game as well.

Vancouver has been looking to clear cap space, and Irfaan Gaffar of the Down to Irf podcast reports that moving Joshua has been their desired mode of accomplishing that task for a while. The Canucks were close to the cap but now have $4.045MM in space with two open roster spots after the trade, per PuckPedia.

Joshua isn’t the impact top-six addition Toronto has been on the hunt for after losing Mitch Marner in free agency, but he does add another bottom-six option to complement their other bang-and-crash forwards like Scott Laughton and Steven Lorentz while recouping some of the physical element they lost when they traded declining enforcer Ryan Reaves to the Sharks earlier this month.

The ripple effect on the Leafs’ roster will be interesting to watch. Without any other moves, Joshua’s inclusion essentially boxes unsigned RFA Nicholas Robertson out of a role, potentially finally producing a trade after he requested one last year. They’re also down to under $3MM in cap space and could look to clear a salary in kind, like Calle Jarnkrok’s $2.1MM cap hit or David Kampf’s $2.4MM cap hit to open up flexibility as they continue to examine the market for a higher-ceiling scoring winger.

Thomas Drance of The Athletic was first to report Joshua was traded to Toronto.

Image courtesy of Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images.

Flames’ Joni Jurmo, Maple Leafs’ Ty Voit Have Contracts Terminated

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July 16: Jurmo and Voit cleared waivers and will have their deals terminated, according to Friedman.

July 15: Flames defense prospect Joni Jurmo and Maple Leafs forward prospect Ty Voit are both on unconditional waivers Tuesday to terminate their entry-level contracts, per Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman.

Both have one year left on their deals and would have been restricted free agents in 2026. Any other NHL club can claim them within the next 24 hours; if not, their contracts will be voided, their remaining money forfeited, and they’ll become unrestricted free agents.

Jurmo, 23, was a third-round pick by the Canucks in 2020. Calgary acquired his signing rights in last year’s Elias Lindholm trade and signed him after his season in his native Finland concluded, bringing him to North America for 2024-25.

While Jurmo had played exclusively in Finland’s top-flight Liiga since 2021-22, the adjustment to North America was rough. The 6’4″, 207-lb lefty failed to capture a full-time AHL role with the Calgary Wranglers, going pointless with an even rating in 17 games. He fared much better in the ECHL with the Rapid City Rush, posting 10 points in 12 games, but his lack of success higher on the depth chart wasn’t a promising sign for his development so long after his draft year.

Jurmo likely wasn’t happy with the lack of overall playing time, either, and will presumably seek out a more stable role in Europe if he becomes a UFA tomorrow. In turn, Calgary will clear a contract slot and open up more playing time for their large pool of young defenders likely headed for the Wranglers this season.

Voit, 22, is a similar story. Toronto’s 2021 fifth-rounder was a star in the OHL after missing his draft year due to COVID, capping off his junior career with a 105-point showing in 67 games for the Sarnia Sting in 2022-23.

Injuries cost him nearly his entire 2023-24 season as he adjusted to the professional ranks, though. He still showed immense playmaking promise when healthy, recording eight points in only five games for the ECHL’s Newfoundland Growlers.

Despite that, Voit didn’t see a second of AHL action last season and instead spent the year back down in the ECHL, now with the Cincinnati Cyclones. His production entered a tailspin, posting a much more conservative 8-29–37 scoring line in 63 games.

The 5’9″ forward could still be in line for an AHL contract somewhere, even if NHL interest isn’t likely. There’s a potential fit with the Penguins – he’s a Pittsburgh native and was drafted by current Pens general manager Kyle Dubas when he was in Toronto.

Former NHL Goaltender Wayne Thomas Passes Away At Age 77

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Wayne Thomas, a long-time NHL executive and eight-year playing veteran as a goaltender, has passed away at age 77, “following a long battle with cancer,” according to a press release from the Sharks.

While undrafted, Thomas managed to appear in 243 NHL games between 1972 and 1981, compiling a 103-93-34 record for the Canadiens, Maple Leafs, and Rangers, with a 3.34 GAA and a .891 SV%. He earned an All-Star Game appearance in 1976 as Toronto’s starter, a season in which he saved 20.8 goals above average in 64 appearances.

Immediately after ending his playing career, Thomas transitioned into a coaching role with the Rangers. He later held goaltending/assistant coaching roles for the Blackhawks, Blues, and Sharks, as well as multiple minor-league clubs. Midway through the 1995-96 season, San Jose promoted him from assistant coach to assistant general manager, a role he held until he retired from the league following the 2014-15 campaign.

“While he achieved great success as a member of several NHL front offices, Wayne’s core passion was his daily work on and off the ice with NHL goaltenders throughout his coaching career, too many to list here, and he continued fruitful relationships with many of them up until his passing,” the Sharks wrote.

All of us at PHR send our condolences to Thomas’ family and friends, as well as the Sharks organization with whom he spent so many years.

Maple Leafs Sign Miroslav Holinka To Entry-Level Deal

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The Maple Leafs have signed 2024 fifth-round pick Miroslav Holinka to a three-year, entry-level contract, per a team press release. Financial terms were not disclosed by the team but PuckPedia reports that the deal will carry a $918K cap charge.

Holinka, 19, made the jump to North America last season after playing his draft year in Czechia with HC Ocelari Trinec, split between their pro club and their under-20 squad. The offensive-minded center was spectacular in the Czech juniors in 2023-24, scoring 20 goals and 41 points in just 29 games.

That breakneck pace didn’t hold up as Holinka arrived in the much more competitive WHL with the Edmonton Oil Kings. However, he was still among their top producers on a per-game basis and had a 19-26–45 scoring line in 47 appearances.

The 6’1″, 185-lb center also cracked Czechia’s roster for the 2025 World Juniors, where he scored a goal and three assists in seven games en route to a bronze medal. While he could technically jump to the AHL this season – he turns 20 in November and wasn’t subjected to the AHL/CHL transfer agreement anyway since he was drafted out of Czechia – it wouldn’t be surprising to see him remain with the Oil Kings for another year of development. If he’s intent on turning pro, a lower-stakes environment like the ECHL’s Cincinnati Cyclones may be a better fit for Holinka, who is still somewhat of a raw talent.

Since Holinka is signing at 19 and turns 20 before Jan. 1, 2026, he’s not eligible for an entry-level slide. His contract will take effect this season no matter if he sees NHL action or not, so he’ll be a restricted free agent upon expiry in 2028.

Russia Notes: Babcock, Gallant, Tortorella, Kuznetsov, Obvintsev

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The KHL’s Kunlun Red Star is making an aggressive push to land a high-profile name as its next head coach. They’ve made attempts to land longtime NHL coaches Mike Babcock, Gerard Gallant, and John Tortorella this summer, reports Dmitry Erykalov of Sport24.ru.

While legally based in Beijing, Kunlun hasn’t played in China since the pandemic. They’ve operated out of a Moscow suburb called Mystichi in recent years but will now play out of St. Petersburg’s SKA Arena, the largest area in the world built for hockey at a capacity of 22,500. Just a few years old, SKA St. Petersburg played part of last season there but will move back to its old venue for 2025-26 due to underwhelming attendance and “low transport accessibility.”

Erykalov writes that Kunlun has also appointed former Avangard Omsk chairman Alexander Krylov to a hockey operations role ahead of the 2025-26 campaign; he previously approached Babcock about Omsk’s vacancy in 2022. Of the three, Erykalov relays that Gallant would be the most realistic hire for the fledgling club as he’s told KHL clubs he “would not mind working” in Russia. That tracks after he wasn’t firmly connected to any NHL coaching vacancies this offseason.

Kunlun has long been irrelevant in the grand scheme of KHL play, especially with the goal of directly supporting professional hockey in China seemingly abandoned post-Olympics and pandemic. The club made the KHL playoffs in its first season back in 2016-17 but hasn’t since. Their 19-34-9-6 record last season was its best in five years, though.

Other notes from Russia:

  • Earlier today, we relayed word that the Canadiens wouldn’t be offering center Evgeny Kuznetsov a contract as he attempts an NHL return despite speculation otherwise. His agent also said to rule out a return to the Capitals, where he spent the vast majority of the first stint of his time in North America. “I don’t see how he could go back,” Shumi Babaev said, after Kuznetsov’s tenure in Washington ended on the waiver wire before being dealt to the Hurricanes for a mid-round pick at the 2023 trade deadline. Kuznetsov, whose 568 points in 723 games rank seventh in Caps franchise history, had 37 points in 39 KHL games last season for SKA in his first season at home in over a decade.
  • Maple Leafs goaltending prospect Timofei Obvintsev has signed a one-year deal with Gornyak-UGMK of the VHL, Russia’s second-tier pro league, the league announced. A 2024 fifth-round pick, Obvintsev saw just 11 games of action in Russia’s top junior league last season with CSKA Moscow’s affiliate club, posting a 2.78 GAA, .908 SV%, one shutout, and a 6-4-0 record. The 20-year-old could be in line for a move to North America next season if he impresses in the pro ranks.

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