The Maple Leafs Are At A Crossroads
The Maple Leafs are on a heater at the moment, and while it’s made some fans forget about their awful stretch of play to start the season, it was clear that the team was going through something, and it’s hard to put a name to it. Some might call it an identity crisis: the team is full of offensive talent yet chooses to play low-risk, safe hockey.
Others might say it’s the apparent outcome of losing Mitch Marner and not replacing him with another offensive star. Or maybe it was the injuries, which have tested the team’s depth. Whatever it was, Toronto is facing a crossroads, and the future of the roster is murky.
The team struggled to get off to a good start, but has been much better as of late. Where they go from here is anyone’s guess, as the team has been unpredictable up to this point in the season.
Even though they are finally winning, many Leafs fans seem indifferent as the team sits outside of a playoff spot. Toronto fans could be fatigued by a team that always seems to let them down when games matter most, or many folks in Ontario who are Maple Leafs fans may have had their interests shift after the magical run MLB’s Toronto Blue Jays went on just a few months ago. Whatever it is, the Maple Leafs – the organization and roster – likely won’t go on for the rest of the season the way they are, which means something has to give.
Toronto is 7-1-2 in its last 10 games and has a positive goal differential on the year. But the results of late have been more of the same. They are great at home and terrible on the road, play great offense and below-average defense, and don’t play fast or tough enough. The Maple Leafs are the perfect candidate to make a shake-up move to change their fortunes, but what would that kind of move even look like?
Many fans would have liked to see Craig Berube fired before their most recent hot streak, but he is a highly respected Stanley Cup-winning coach who knows how to win. Would that kind of move change the fortunes of the Maple Leafs?
It could. It has happened before to other talented teams lumbering through mediocre seasons despite gifted rosters. The 2009 and 2016 Penguins come to mind as two examples of teams that fired their coach midseason and went on to win the Stanley Cup. More recently, the Blues fired head coach Mike Yeo in 2018, only to go on and win the Stanley Cup in 2019 with a new coach behind the bench – Berube.
But is firing Berube really the right move? It probably never was, and it definitely isn’t after their most recent stretch of play, especially given that the coaching market isn’t exactly ripe with great options for Toronto, and they would most likely be recycling a less-than-desirable option through Toronto, which probably makes it the wrong move.
What about a big trade? Well, that’s another issue for Toronto. They don’t have much to trade to acquire a player who can help now. Their prospect system is among the worst in the league, and they have just three picks in this year’s draft, none of which are in the first two rounds. They also don’t have a first-round pick in 2027 or a third-rounder.
This is before we even get to cap space, which they have very little of. Toronto could do some cap gymnastics, but at the moment, they have less than $3.4MM available at the deadline (per PuckPedia), which likely makes any significant move out of the question. Plus, do you want to move out more futures for short-term rentals when you don’t even know if this group is a playoff team?
The following month will say a lot about the Maple Leafs. If they continue to hover outside of a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, they are probably best off seeing if they can move their UFAs and punt on this season. But if they continue the current run they are on, that will change the calculus going forward and put any coaching change talk among the fanbase to bed.
How can Toronto turn the corner and make sure it remains a consistent team? Simply put, they need to figure out which style of play maximizes the talent on their roster. Scott Laughton has been a black hole offensively since arriving in Toronto late last season, with just six goals and two assists in 30 games this year.
The same could be said for Calle Jarnkrok, who was once a consistent 30-to-40-point player but has just six goals in 29 games this season. They also need to figure out how to manage injuries to key players, including defenseman Chris Tanev and goaltender Anthony Stolarz.
It’s never easy to replace top players; however, teams find ways to do it and tread water until their players return. The Penguins faced a stretch this season without their entire second line, yet they remained in the playoff hunt despite arguably having a worse roster than the Maple Leafs. Teams rely on structure, work ethic and a next-man-up philosophy to overcome injuries, and Toronto needs to dig deep to do the same.
Lastly, there is the Marner issue, and it is perhaps the biggest. Fans had a close-up last night of Marner in Vegas’ overtime win over the Maple Leafs. Toronto never replaced Marner, and to be honest, they never could.
Stars leave massive holes in rosters when they depart, but good management groups find ways to plug the gaps, and the Maple Leafs haven’t done that. Some fans and pundits have suggested Toronto make a move for Stars forward Jason Robertson, but that move doesn’t have legs for many of the reasons previously stated (lack of cap space, lack of assets, etc.). But there are players out there that Toronto could look at as potential assets to add before the trade deadline, should they be in the hunt for a playoff spot.
At this stage of their contention window, the Maple Leafs can ill afford to finish in the middle and miss the playoffs entirely, losing their first-round pick. The best course for them is to make the postseason this year and try to make a run, but if they are going to miss the playoffs, it would likely be better to finish low enough in the standings to get a top 5 pick, retain their first-round pick for this season, and retool in the summer. This situation would push them to give up first-round picks in 2027 and 2028, but the hope would be that they could get a top prospect this year who could make an immediate NHL impact.
Stolarz Has Been Dealing With Nerve Issue, Could Return During Homestand
Maple Leafs goaltender Anthony Stolarz has missed more than two months with an upper-body injury with little known beyond that. The netminder told reporters yesterday (video link) that he has been dealing with a nerve issue, one that simply needed time to heal but no one knew at the time how long he’d be out for. Stolarz was a top performer last season which earned him a four-year, $15MM extension in training camp. However, he struggled mightily before being shut down, posting a 3.51 GAA and a .884 SV% in 13 starts. He indicated that he still needs to get into a few practices with the team before he could potentially return which could put him in line to see game action at some point toward the back of their upcoming five-game homestand.
Maple Leafs To Recall Jacob Quillan; William Nylander Injured
According to David Alter of The Hockey News, the Toronto Maple Leafs are expected to recall Jacob Quillan from the AHL’s Toronto Marlies. As TSN’s Darren Dreger pointed out earlier, forward William Nylander is dealing with injury concerns, and he’ll likely be placed on the injured reserve.
Nylander has already been ruled out for today’s matchup by the team. There’s a belief that he re-aggravated his recent lower-body injury in the overtime loss to the Vegas Golden Knights on Thursday. He had previously missed six games with the injury.
Additionally, the Maple Leafs haven’t yet provided an updated recovery timeline for their star winger. Yesterday, Jonas Siegel of The Athletic asked head coach Craig Berube how long Nylander would miss, to which Berube responded, “Right now I can’t answer that. With the last one I thought it would be quicker and then obviously (it) wasn’t. We’ll just see how he feels here going forward.”
It’s unfortunate timing for Nylander and Toronto, as the 11-year veteran was on a tear after initially returning from his lower-body ailment. Since returning to the lineup on January 10th, Nylander scored three goals and seven points with a +2 rating, averaging 13:28 of ice time per game. Still, that’s been the status quo for Nylander this year, scoring 14 goals and 41 points in 33 games before suffering the injury the first time.
Meanwhile, Quillan, 23, will return to the Maple Leafs after being reassigned on January 9th. The 6’1″ forward has gone scoreless in three appearances for the Maple Leafs this season with a +2 rating, averaging 8:06 of ice time per game.
His play in the AHL, plus his flexible contract, has made him a consistent recall candidate for Toronto this season. He’s tied for third in scoring on AHL Toronto, registering eight goals and 27 points in 28 games with a +8 rating.
Nick Robertson Out Day To Day
- The Toronto Maple Leafs will be without forward Nick Robertson on a day-to-day basis as he manages a lower-body injury, per TSN’s Mark Masters. Robertson didn’t play yesterday against the Utah Mammoth after appearing to suffer the injury Monday against the Colorado Avalanche. Veteran Calle Jarnkrok drew into Toronto’s lineup in Robertson’s place. The 24-year-old, who was the subject of offseason trade speculation, has had a decent season, all things considered, for the Maple Leafs. He’s scored 10 goals and 22 points, just five points shy of his career-high. He’s produced at that clip despite receiving just over twelve minutes of ice time per game.
Toronto Maple Leafs Linked To Dougie Hamilton
According to a new report from The Fourth Period, the Toronto Maple Leafs are interested in acquiring Dougie Hamilton from the New Jersey Devils. There is some ambiguity in the reasoning behind the report, though it stands to reason that the Maple Leafs could benefit from a defenseman of Hamilton’s archetype.
To start, the report expands on a report from David Pagnotta last month, articulating that Toronto is scouring the trade market for a puck-moving defenseman. The principal expansion came from TSN’s Pierre LeBrun segment on Insider Trading yesterday, indicating that the Maple Leafs and Carolina Hurricanes would be ideal fits for the 32-year-old blue liner.
Being an ideal fit doesn’t necessarily mean that Toronto is actively engaging in conversations with New Jersey regarding Hamilton, though signs are pointing in that direction. The Maple Leafs have also been connected to Calgary Flames defenseman Rasmus Andersson, who plays a similar style to Hamilton. For what it’s worth, in terms of their similarity scores, which are devised by point shares, Hamilton is nearly identical in value to retired defenseman P.K. Subban.
Still, there are a few hangups with Hamilton being traded to the Maple Leafs. For starters, Hamilton has a 10-team trade list (effectively a 21-team no-trade list), and there’s no indication that Toronto is on there. Hamilton’s agent, J.P. Barry, stated last week that they were open to broadening that list for the right opportunity. If he has any desire to play for a playoff-caliber team, the Maple Leafs serve as a better option in that regard for the time being.
Furthermore, the major sticking point is that Hamilton is owed a $9MM salary through the 2027-28 campaign. That’s not something that Toronto will easily be able to absorb. They would likely need the Devils to retain in some fashion, and they may be unwilling to do so since the whole point of moving Hamilton is to clear salary off the roster. Still, there is an argument to be made that retaining some of Hamilton’s salary will be less than what they are paying him now, effectively getting what they want, just not to the degree they had hoped for.
Technically, the Maple Leafs could get there, but they would likely need to place defenseman Chris Tanev on the LTIR, which would open up approximately $3.8MM in room. Additionally, if a forward like Matias Maccelli ($3.425MM) went to New Jersey in the hypothetical swap, Toronto could get close to making it work.
Among the reasons why Toronto would consider acquiring Hamilton, enhancing the power play stands out as the most significant factor. They’ve been much better with a man advantage lately, though little of that production is coming from the blue line.
Through their first 35 games, the Maple Leafs had averaged a 13.3% success rate on the power play, eventually leading the team to fire Marc Savard a few days before Christmas. Since then, in their next 11 contests, they’ve been clicking at a 28% rate. Still, Morgan Rielly and Oliver Ekman-Larsson, both of whom are the quarterbacks on their respective units, have combined for eight points, all assists. Hamilton is only a few years removed from having 28 power-play points himself.
Regardless, despite his potential value to Toronto, the hurdles of Hamilton’s contract remain.
Brayden Schenn Had One Stipulation For Trade To Maple Leafs
In last week’s rendition of 32 Thoughts, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman alluded to the idea that St. Louis Blues captain Brayden Schenn was willing to waive his no-trade clause to join the Toronto Maple Leafs under one condition: that the team also acquire his brother, Luke Schenn.
Specifically, Friedman said, “I heard…Brayden Schenn wasn’t going to waive to Toronto unless the Leafs also got Luke; when all that was going on about teams uniting the Schenn brothers, that’s what I think Toronto was trying to do.” Since he used the past tense and suggested that the team was trying to unite the brothers, it seems likely that this was something the Maple Leafs attempted last year rather than at the present moment.
However, it’s certainly something Toronto could revisit this season. Brayden has less trade protection than he did last year, seeing his full no-trade clause drop to a 15-team no-trade list this season, while Luke is a pending unrestricted free agent playing on a disappointing Winnipeg Jets team. The Maple Leafs have decent depth on the right side of their defensive core, but could use additional insurance should Brandon Carlo go down with injury again.
Latest On Anthony Stolarz
Toronto Maple Leafs goaltender Anthony Stolarz reached another milestone as he approaches his return. David Alter of The Hockey News revealed that Stolarz skated with the regular group today.
Maple Leafs Assign Dakota Mermis On Conditioning Loan
The Maple Leafs announced they’ve assigned defenseman Dakota Mermis to AHL Toronto on a conditioning loan. Since he is on long-term injured reserve, his conditioning stint is subject to added restrictions – he can only remain in the minors for up to three games or six days, whichever comes first, until they must activate him and/or place him on waivers.
Mermis has been rehabbing a lower-body injury for just over a month. The veteran depth option last played on Dec. 8 against the Lightning. While it was only ever publicly reported he was on standard IR, the team’s announcement implies they shifted him to LTIR at some point in the last few weeks for added breathing room under the salary cap.
Mermis, fresh off his 32nd birthday, is in his second season as a Leaf. He spent most of last year in the minors with the Marlies, aside from a few brief call-ups to Toronto and a short stint in Utah after getting claimed off waivers and subsequently being re-claimed by the Leafs. This season, though, he’s gotten into 11 contests for the Leafs amid their earlier rash of blue line injuries. It’s the second-most action the career minor-league option has seen aside from his career-high 47 games with the Wild two years ago.
The 6’0″ lefty has one goal with a -3 rating while averaging 13:02 per game. He’s generally been a net positive possession player in his short looks in the Leafs lineup, and with 554 games of NHL and AHL experience, there’s legitimate value in Mermis as a plug-and-play option.
While Chris Tanev remains on the shelf, Brandon Carlo‘s return from injury and Troy Stecher‘s inclusion in the lineup makes it likelier than not he’ll end up on waivers when his conditioning stint ends this weekend. He might also be kept around as an eighth defenseman while Matt Benning hits the wire, though.
Anthony Stolarz Nearing Return
The Toronto Maple Leafs could get a major boost to their goaltending on their upcoming road trip next week. According to David Alter of The Hockey News, Anthony Stolarz is nearing a return to the team and is expected to join them next week. It would be the first time the Maple Leafs have their normal goaltending duo available since November 11th.
Even before going down with an upper-body injury in mid-November, Stolarz didn’t look the same as he has in years past. He posted a 6-5-1 record in 13 games with a .884 SV% and 3.51 GAA. For comparison, with the Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers, Stolarz managed a 37-15-5 record in 61 games with a .926 SV% and 2.10 GAA from 2023-24 to 2024-25.
Meanwhile, in a separate update from Alter, the Maple Leafs haven’t yet decided on the possibility of surgery for defenseman Chris Tanev. Sharing a statement from head coach Craig Berube, Alter quoted the coach saying, “Not yet. I’m sure that’ll be soon here about what he’s going to do.” The 16-year veteran has been ruled out with a groin injury since December 28th, with the rest of the 2025-26 season in doubt for him.
Toronto Maple Leafs Activate William Nylander
The Toronto Maple Leafs will return their highest-scoring player tonight. According to a team announcement, the Maple Leafs have activated William Nylander from the team’s injured reserve.
The news aligns with an earlier report from David Alter of The Hockey News stating that Nylander will return to the lineup, and defenseman Jake McCabe is a game-time decision. Nylander has missed two weeks with a lower-body injury.
Still, despite missing their highest-scoring player for 14 days, the Maple Leafs haven’t noticed. Toronto is 4-0-2 without Nylander, climbing to 11th place in the Eastern Conference standings and two points back of the final wild-card spot.
Regardless, Toronto will warmly welcome Nylander and his offensive prowess back into the lineup. The 29-year-old winger is again on pace to register more than 80 points this season, scoring 14 goals and 41 points in 33 games while averaging 19:10 of ice time per game.
However, there are some newfound concerns with Nylander on the defensive side of the puck this season. Although he has 39 more games to correct the issue (if he remains healthy), Nylander’s CorsiFor% at even strength (47.0%) and on-ice SV% at even strength (86.0%) have each fallen to a career low. Despite averaging more than a point per game, even his expected +/- has fallen into the negatives for the first time since his rookie season in 2015-16.
Meanwhile, it would be equally beneficial for the Maple Leafs to get McCabe back into the lineup for different reasons. The 32-year-old blue liner has arguably been the best defenseman for Toronto this season, scoring three goals and 16 points in 41 games with a +26 rating. Unlike Nylander, most of McCabe’s value this season has come from the defensive side of the puck, averaging a 91.7% oiSV% at even strength.