Stretch Run Storylines: Toronto Maple Leafs
As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks. Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run. Over the coming weeks, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team. We continue our look at the Atlantic Division with Toronto.
It has been an interesting season for the Maple Leafs. An early coaching change yielded some early returns but before long, they were back to being consistently inconsistent. At their best, they’ve shown they can contend with the top teams in the league but when they’re not on, they’ve been highly beatable. A return to form for some of their top players would go a long way towards helping them secure a playoff spot if games resume and those underachievers are highlighted in the storylines to watch for.
Goaltending
Frederik Andersen has had some hot and cold moments throughout his tenure with the Maple Leafs and before this stoppage came, he was in the middle of one of those cold streaks, posting a save percentage of .879 over a three and a half week stretch in February. That’s a below average mark for any NHL goaltender, particularly a starter on a team that has eyes on a long playoff run this season.
To his credit, Andersen was a lot better over his final three starts before this stoppage and that’s the level of play they’ll need from him if they want to contend. Can he stay at that level?
GM Kyle Dubas decided to bring in some insurance just before the trade deadline with the acquisition of Jack Campbell who started off strong enough that he’d have pushed for a bigger role had Andersen’s struggles continued. There’s something to watch for on his end as well – if he wins six games in the regular season, the conditional 2021 third-round pick would upgrade to a second-round selection. Campbell is halfway there; if the season is played out in full, he’ll have a shot at getting there. If not, it will be interesting to see if any proration occurs by the league to determine if the condition was met.
Playing For A Contract
Tyson Barrie’s first season in Toronto hasn’t gone as well as anyone would have hoped. As a high-skilled offensive blueliner, going to a team with a lot of top-end firepower seemed like a good fit for him to have a big season in his UFA walk year.
But that hasn’t happened. Instead, he has dropped to just five goals on the season, his lowest full-season total of his career. It’s not due to a lack of playing time either as he’s averaging slightly more ice time than he was last season with Colorado when he had a career high in points.
Not surprisingly, his name was in trade speculation leading into the trade deadline although clearly, nothing came of it. With the Maple Leafs hoping to contend and them only carrying half of his contract with the Avs paying the rest, it was going to be hard to find a right fit that would have brought them another top-four defender back.
Not only would Barrie rebounding be a big boost for Toronto but it would also be a boon to his free agent stock which has taken a bit of a hit this season before even factoring in the looming questions regarding the Upper Limit of the salary cap. There’s certainly a lot riding on how the rest of the year goes for him.
Matthews’ Quest
Auston Matthews was having quite the season offensively before the rinks went quiet. He sits just three goals shy of the 50-goal mark and if he can get there, he’d become just the fourth player in franchise history (joining Dave Andreychuk, Gary Leeman, and Rick Vaive) to reach that mark. If games resume with close to a full schedule, he’ll have a good shot at getting there.
That takes us to the second half of his quest. Vaive holds the franchise record at 54 with Matthews sitting at 47 in 70 games, a goal per game mark of 0.67. Toronto had 12 games left in the season. At that rate, Matthews would project to get eight more which would have got him the record. He’d likely need the league to play out the full 82 games to have a shot at setting the new record but if that happens, this will certainly be something to watch for.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Snapshots: League Timeline, 2021 Draft, Bouwmeester
UPDATE 4:45pm: The Toronto mayor’s office clarified the ban to TSN radio, indicating that it does not include sporting events, only “city events and event permits.”
4:00pm: As mentioned in the earlier story about the NHL extending their period of self-isolation for players and team staff, even April 15th—the new end date the league announced—seems very aggressive given the much longer bans that states, provinces, and cities have already instituted. This afternoon Toronto, one of the league’s biggest markets, announced a ban on all public events through June 30th. That would seemingly include playoff hockey games, making it quite difficult to resume any action that includes the Maple Leafs in the next three months.
While there could be ways around a ban like this for regular season games—neutral venue sites could potentially be used—it’s hard to see a world where the Maple Leafs would be forced to play playoff contests somewhere else. Revenue from the playoffs in the league’s big markets is crucial, especially so in a season cut short. At this point, fans can only wait and see what happens, but the NHL season is just getting further and further away.
- Another major market that has already lost an NHL event is Montreal, where the Canadiens were stripped of the 2020 Entry Draft—or at least the full scale of it. Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic reports that Montreal can expect to have a full draft either in 2021 or 2022, though there is another interesting option for next year. LeBrun tweets that the new Seattle franchise has shown interest in trying to bring the entry draft in next season to pair with the expansion draft, though it isn’t clear if it will be feasible at this point.
- Among all the disruptions and distractions, it’s sometimes hard to find any good news these days. Alex Pietrangelo of the St. Louis Blues gave us some of that today, when he told reporters including Dan Rosen of NHL.com that teammate Jay Bouwmeester is doing well in his recovery from a cardiac episode he suffered in February. The Blues captain noted that teammates have checked in on Bouwmeester and that he has seen him walking about their shared neighborhood recently.
Toronto Maple Leafs Frontrunners To Sign Alexander Barabanov
March 31: Maple Leafs’ GM Kyle Dubas admitted at media availability today that his team is pursuing Barabanov, explaining to Chris Johnston of Sportsnet that the team likes the Russian forward’s ability to make plays under pressure. Johnston also notes that there doesn’t seem to be any rush from Barabanov’s side to make a decision.
March 28: With the KHL playoffs now canceled, many of the league’s top free agents can now consider signing new contracts. One of the more interesting forwards, Alexander Barabanov, has expressed interest in coming to North America and signing with an NHL team with at least 20 teams showing interest in the diminutive forward to this point.
However, a recent report from Sport-Express’ overseas reporter Igor Eronko suggests that the Toronto Maple Leafs are the leading candidate to sign the 25-year-old, although he did report that there are three teams he’s considering, which also includes the Arizona Coyotes. TSN’s Darren Dreger does add that nothing is confirmed. In fact, there are no guarantees he’s definitely coming to the NHL yet. He reports that Barabanov and his agent Dan Milstein will begin interviewing teams next week.
Barabanov has played full seasons for SKA St. Petersburg in the KHL for the past five years and has scored anywhere between 10 to 20 goals in each of the last four years. He scored a career-high 17 goals and 46 points in 58 games in the 2018-19 season but saw his numbers dip this past year after suffering a broken hand in December from a slashing incident. He finished his season with 10 goals and 20 points in 43 games. Regardless, the forward is expected to fill a role as a solid bottom-six forward despite his lack of size at 5-foot-8 and 159 pounds.
If Toronto is the front-runner, it wouldn’t be a big surprise as general manager Kyle Dubas has made it a priority to add undrafted talent to his salary cap-strapped team by looking overseas. He added forward Ilya Mikheyev out of the KHL last year, who did make an impact in the first half of the season before suffering a wrist laceration when the skate of New Jersey’s Jesper Bratt ran over his wrist. Mikheyev has eight goals and 23 assists in 39 games this season. Despite the injury, he is expected to play a major role for the Maple Leafs next season. Toronto hopes they can get similar production from Barabanov if he agrees to sign with them.
Arizona is also in the mix. The Athletic’s Craig Morgan confirmed the Coyotes interest as general manager John Chayka talked with Barabanov earlier this season when he visited St. Petersburg. No word on who the third team Barabanov is considering.
Stretch Run Storylines: Tampa Bay Lightning
As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks. Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run. Over the coming weeks, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team. We look at the Atlantic Division with Tampa Bay.
It’s been a strange year for the Tampa Bay Lightning, who many felt would step into the 2019-20 season with vengeance in their minds after an embarrassing first-round exit in the playoffs last year when they were the most dominant team in hockey. Instead, the team started slowly and quickly found themselves sitting outside the playoffs. There was even some discussion that the team could let go head coach Jon Cooper, although general manager Julien BriseBois gave him a vote of confidence. Then everything changed around Christmas when the Lightning went on a 10-game winning streak and followed that up in late January with an 11-game winning streak that vaulted them into a solid second place standing in the Atlantic Division.
Stamkos Return?
The timing of his injury couldn’t have been worse back in early March when it was announced that Steven Stamkos would be out for six to eight weeks to have surgery to repair a core muscle injury. That would likely have required the top-line star to miss the first round of the playoffs in the best case scenario. The suspension of play is only going to be an advantage to injured players as it gives them time to heal and Stamkos could receive the biggest advantage as he now should have plenty of time to recover and be ready to hit the ice when play resumes. So far he’s close to reaching the half-way point of his recovery process and in a few weeks time could be ready for action again, which should be plenty of time.
Stamkos is second on the team in scoring with 29 goals and 66 points and while those numbers are down compared to previous seasons, likely due to his core muscle injury that has slowed him down, a healthy Stamkos could be a difference-maker in the playoffs.
Salary Cap Issues
The Lightning also have to start looking to the 2020-21 season when their salary cap could be significantly affected, especially if the cap flatlines. The team doesn’t have any significant contracts that are set to expire and those that are, like Kevin Shattenkirk or Pat Maroon, are players the Lightning are likely going to want to extend.
Throw in the fact that goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy‘s new contract will kick in as his AAV will go from $3.5MM to $9.5MM, and the fact that defenseman Mikhail Sergachev‘s entry-level deal expires, meaning a raise is in order for the fast-developing blueliner and Tampa Bay has some issues.
That likely will require BriseBois to make some trades to fix those cap concerns and even out their roster. He had some success at that last year when he was able to trade forward J.T. Miller to Vancouver for a conditional first-rounder that since has been traded away for more immediate help. The team may have to unload even more this offseason to balance the cap.
Potential Meeting With Maple Leafs
If the playoffs do hit, it almost seems inevitable that the Lightning will find themselves with the inconsistent, but potential playoff wrecker in the Maple Leafs. The team avoided their top-heavy Atlantic last season, clinching first place and a wild-card opponent. Unfortunately, that didn’t go well as they were swept by Columbus.
However, with Boston eight points ahead of the Lightning, it’s obvious that they will face off against Toronto. While the Maple Leafs have been erratic all season, that doesn’t mean the Lightning are looking forward to the combination of John Tavares, Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander, any of which can change the outcome of playoff games. It could be the most interesting of the first-round matchups, assuming the playoffs happen.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Maple Leafs, Kyle Clifford Interested In Extension
Like any trade deadline rental right now, Kyle Clifford hopes that his stay with his new team is longer than just a handful of regular season games. If the NHL season does not resume, the Toronto Maple Leafs would be one of a number of teams regretting the prices they paid at the deadline for assets they were unable to use in the postseason. However, it seems that Clifford is hoping to stay longer than just this season anyhow and the Maple Leafs are equally hopeful of making more of their deadline deal. Agent Todd Reynolds tells Terry Koshan of the Toronto Sun that there is mutual interest on both sides in a contract extension.
Of course, there are a couple obvious caveats with this report. The first is that this report comes from Clifford’s agent, whose job it is to drum up interest in his client. With NHL action suspended and Clifford heading toward unrestricted free agency with 17 points on the year and just three in 16 games with Toronto, Reynolds needs to keep the veteran forward’s value up, especially if he doesn’t get another chance to play this year. The other issue is that the Maple Leafs are in no position to make any future salary commitments until they are aware of the impact that the current league pause will have on the salary cap. With nearly $77MM already tied up in 17 players for next season and major needs on defense, Toronto may not have the room to sign a bottom-six forward like Clifford if the salary cap remains at $81.5MM or only increases marginally.
With that said, should the report be more than just puffery from an agent and if the Maple Leafs do indeed have the desire and space to retain Clifford, the fit makes a lot of sense. The team acquired he and goaltender Jack Campbell from the Los Angeles Kings because they both fit specific needs. Toronto could use a veteran defensive forward who plays with grit and intensity, not just in in the 2020 postseason but moving forward. Clifford brings experience and leadership, but most importantly a physical element often lacking in the Leafs’ lineup. The Ontario native reportedly likes playing in Toronto, has an identifiable role on the team moving forward, and it doesn’t hurt that Reynolds also represents another Maple Leaf defensive forward in Zach Hyman. A signing might not be imminent, but mutual interest in an extension between Toronto and Clifford seems to make more sense than not.
Maple Leafs Likely To Have Greater Cap Issues Due To Cononavirus
The Toronto Maple Leafs knew they would have some issues with their cap for many years in the future when they signed John Tavares to a seven-year, $77MM ($11MM AAV) contract and then locked up their three future star forwards (Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander) to a combined $29.5MM per season.
General manager Kyle Dubas was already hard-pressed last year when he was forced to send a first-round pick to Carolina to get rid of Patrick Marleau‘s final year of his contract. The team also sent off popular center Nazem Kadri to Colorado in hopes of adding some much-needed defense. The team already knew it was going to have to make some tough decisions this offseason even with estimates that the salary cap could increase from $81.5 to anywhere from $84-88.2MM. However, the Maple Leafs’ cap situation may have gotten worse, according to Terry Koshan of the Toronto Sun, who writes that with the financial impact that is expected to hit the NHL, that salary cap could flatline and remain at $81.5MM next season.
If that’s the case, then the Toronto Maple Leafs plans may require some major changes as they currently have $77MM committed to just 17 players with a number of restricted free agents they must deal with, including Ilya Mikheyev, Travis Dermott, Denis Malgin and Frederik Gauthier. Both Mikheyev and Dermott each should get significant raises, while the team will want to being back Gauthier. Malgin is a different question. On the unrestricted free agent market, the team was likely going to let Tyson Barrie and Cody Ceci walk anyway, there would be no room to keep either one if they wanted to bring one back. The team must also find some room for Jason Spezza and Kyle Clifford, who have become valued veterans.
With so much salary, the scribe believes that Dubas will guaranteed be forced to trade at least one of their younger top-six forwards, including Kasperi Kapanen ($3.2MM AAV), Andreas Johnsson ($3.4MM) or Alexander Kerfoot ($3.5MM), each of which make more a significant amount of money and likely could bring back a significant package of cheap roster players.
Of course, much of that is dependent on what happens in the next few weeks/months, but the more time that passes is likely worse in Toronto. Throw in the fact that the team must also deal with Frederik Andersen‘s contract in two years and they have even more trouble ahead.
Arizona Coyotes Sign Ryan McGregor
It’s not just college free agents that will be signing, now that junior leagues have also called off the rest of their regular seasons. Ryan McGregor, captain of the Sarnia Sting of the OHL, has signed a three-year entry-level contract with the Arizona Coyotes.
McGregor, 21, was actually a sixth-round pick of the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2017 but failed to sign with them by last summer’s deadline and became an unrestricted free agent. The forward also got a bit of AHL experience with the Toronto Marlies, a league he’ll have to prove himself in next season.
In 52 games with the Sting this season McGregor recorded 27 goals and 68 points, but his future likely comes as more of a defensive option in the middle of the ice. The pivot took more faceoffs than all but four players in the entire OHL this season, while also contributing heavily to the penalty kill.
For the Coyotes, handing out a contract to a player like McGregor doesn’t pose a lot of risk. The team is trying to build a system of success from the minor leagues up, likely valuing his leadership and competitive abilities more than any potential offensive upside.
Trade Conditions Hinging On Regular Season Games
There’s little doubt that the NHL would prefer to resume the season and play out the remaining regular season games, but speculation still swirls that it may need to move directly into the playoffs depending on how long this “pause” lasts. Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic (subscription required) spoke with deputy commissioner Bill Daly who made it clear that nothing has been decided yet, but that next year’s season will not be shortened even if the playoffs leak into the summer.
If the final dozen or so games are cancelled and the league decides to move directly into the playoffs it would certainly ruffle some feathers given the standings and points percentages right now, but there are other things to consider if a chunk of the season is lopped off.
Perhaps most notably (other than the drastic financial impact it might have on next year’s cap) are how a shortened season would affect trade conditions. This is probably the last thing on the minds of league officers, but fans have already started wondering about some of the deals their teams have made in the past. Below, we’ll look at a couple of those conditions that might be influenced by a loss of the remaining games.
Toronto acquires Jack Campbell (link)
When the Maple Leafs went out a few weeks before the trade deadline and acquired their backup goaltender, an interesting condition was attached to one of the third-round selections heading back to the Los Angeles Kings. Should the Maple Leafs make the playoffs in 2019-20 and Campbell wins six regular season games, the 2021 third would upgrade to a second-round pick.
Through six appearances for Toronto Campbell already had three wins, and was likely going to get a few more opportunities down the stretch. If the season ends without any more regular season games, the Kings will have to hope that Toronto decides to re-sign Kyle Clifford if they want that second rounder.
Carolina acquires Sami Vatanen (link)
The Hurricanes went out at the deadline and bought, acquiring three impact players in the process. While Vincent Trocheck and Brady Skjei immediately made an impact, Vatanen suffered a setback in his recovery and looked like he might miss the majority of Carolina’s remaining games. The fact that he hadn’t played for them yet made it look like the conditions on a 2020 fourth-round pick wouldn’t be met, but this break actually may result in a positive for the New Jersey Devils (at least in this case).
There are two games played thresholds involved in the deal for Vatanen at five and 12, which suddenly don’t seem that difficult to meet if the pause allows him to recover. Of course that would require the regular season games to be played in this scenario.
Edmonton, Calgary swap Milan Lucic, James Neal (link)
This is the one you’ve been waiting for, given how ridiculous the condition seemed at the time of the trade. To refresh your memory, the Flames will receive a 2020 third-round selection if Neal scores 21 goals and outscores Lucic by at least 10. Neal is currently 11 goals ahead of Lucic on the season, but has just 19 total. If those regular season games never get played, it would seem that the condition has not been met. Perhaps there is a prorated version in the fine print, but as of now the deal looks to be “one-for-one.”
Toronto Maple Leafs Sign Mikhail Abramov
While the Toronto Maple Leafs battle to make the playoffs, the front office still has their eyes on the future. The team has signed prospect Mikhail Abramov to a three-year entry-level contract. Abramov is currently playing with the Victoriaville Tigres of the QMJHL, where he will remain for the rest of the season.
The 18-year old Russian forward was selected in the fourth round of the 2019 draft, after his first season in North America. His goal scoring ability has exploded this season, with his 35 tallies tying him for tenth in the entire QMJHL. More impressively perhaps is that Abramov leads his club in scoring by 35 points, scoring 16 more goals than the next best. That kind of production without support is usually a strong indicator of success at the next level, though there is still a long way to go for him before any sort of NHL action.
Most likely Abramov will either stay in the QMJHL next season, though the Maple Leafs could also loan him back to Russia. Either way his deal will not kick in for the 2020-21 season, given he won’t turn 19 until later this month.
Morgan Rielly To Return For Toronto Maple Leafs
The Toronto Maple Leafs are barely hanging onto their precarious playoff position after losing three straight games on a west coast road trip. They’ll get some help tonight however, as defenseman Morgan Rielly will return to the lineup after missing 23 games with a broken foot.
Rielly, who turned 26 just yesterday, is one of Toronto’s most important players and best defenseman. An alternate captain that has been with the team since its darkest days, it is hard to explain just how much the club has missed him over the last two months. With Jake Muzzin also out for most of that time, the Maple Leafs have relied on a patchwork group of young defensemen.
Now, with the season hanging in the balance, Toronto will take on the Tampa Bay Lightning as the first team in a very difficult stretch. The team has 11 games between now and the end of the month, with almost all of those coming against teams either in a playoff position or still battling for one. That includes two games against the Lightning, one against their rival Boston Bruins and another against the Metropolitan-leading Washington Capitals. If there was ever a time when they needed Rielly, it’s now.