Lightning Rumors

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2022-23 season and beyond.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Current Cap Hit: $89,574,031 (over the $82.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Nick Perbix (one year, $842.5K)

Potential Bonuses
Perbix: $82.5K

Perbix has already signed an extension so we’ll cover that later on.  His bonuses are games-played based and typically require 80 games to max out.  However, there are generally a few tiers for bonuses at this price point so he should receive some of this amount.  With Tampa Bay into LTIR, whatever Perbix earns will come off their cap next season.

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

F Rudolfs Balcers ($750K, RFA)
F Pierre-Edouard Bellemare ($1MM, UFA)
D Ian Cole ($3MM, UFA)
F Ross Colton ($1.25MM, RFA)
G Brian Elliott ($900K, UFA)
D Callan Foote ($850K, RFA)
F Alex Killorn ($4.45MM, UFA)
F Vladislav Namestnikov ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Corey Perry ($1MM, UFA)

Killorn’s future with Tampa Bay has seemingly been in question for a while now with the team having to cut from its veteran core each season.  Those questions will only intensify now as it’s hard to see how they can afford to keep him.  The 33-year-old has a chance at beating his career high in points (59, set last season) which would at least help him hit the open market on a high note.  He should be able to get a small raise on a medium-term agreement.  Namestnikov also appears to be unlikely to return as he hasn’t fit in during his second stint with the team.  He’ll also be hard-pressed to match his current AAV unless he can turn things around down the stretch.  Perry and Bellemare are low-cost veterans that Tampa Bay will either want to retain or bring in someone else to replace them at likely a slightly lower cap charge if possible.  If they look elsewhere, they’d be in line for similar contracts to what they’re on now.

On the RFA side up front, Colton will be in line for a sizable raise.  He potted 22 goals last season and has a chance at 20 this year.  Notably, he’ll also have salary arbitration eligibility which could push his next contract past the $3MM range.  He’s an important part of their bottom six but they might have to get creative to keep him around.  Balcers was picked up off waivers earlier this season and he tested the UFA market last summer after being bought out.  Another minimum-priced contract should be coming his way which could keep him around for another year in Tampa Bay.

On the back end, Cole is arguably having a better year than he did last season with Carolina, logging his highest ice time since 2018-19 in the process.  Having played on one-year deals for the last two seasons now, he might have a shot at a multi-year agreement at a price tag that’s close to this one.  Foote still hasn’t been able to quite lock down a full-time spot in the lineup which will hurt his case even with arbitration eligibility.  He should be able to push past the $1MM mark but his next deal shouldn’t be much more than that, even if they decide to tack on a second season.

Elliott has put up numbers that are hovering near the league average this year which is a good return on one of the cheapest goalie contracts in the league.  But he turns 38 in April and is going to be going year-to-year from here on out.  On merit, he’s worthy of at least a small raise but if he wants to stay with the Lightning, it’ll have to be at this price point at most.  With how their roster is structured, Tampa Bay simply can’t afford a more expensive backup netminder.

Signed Through 2023-24

D Zach Bogosian ($850K, UFA)
D Haydn Fleury ($762.5K, UFA)
F Brandon Hagel ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Pat Maroon ($1MM, UFA)
D Philippe Myers ($2.55MM in 2022-23, $1.4MM in 2023-24, UFA)
D Brent Seabrook ($6.875MM, UFA)
F Steven Stamkos ($8.5MM, UFA)

Stamkos isn’t really slowing down and has provided a lot of value on this contract as he continues to be a focal point of Tampa Bay’s attack.  Accordingly, he has positioned himself for a raise on his next deal if he wants to go after top dollar.  In that case, he could land an eight-digit AAV, especially with 2024 pegged as the summer for the Upper Limit to jump up by a fair-sized amount.  But if he wants to stick around with the Lightning, this feels like a situation where he could accept a longer-term contract to help try to bring the cap hit down somewhat relative to market value.  Such a deal would take him closer to age 40 which isn’t necessarily ideal but it would keep the price tag closer to where it is now which would allow them to keep the core around as long as possible.

The Lightning paid a sizable price to land Hagel thanks to what has quickly turned into one of the bigger bargains in the league.  If he continues to score around his current pace, he could make a case to quadruple his current price tag.  Even with a higher cap at that time, it might be tough for them to keep both Hagel and Stamkos around.  As for Maroon, he’s a fourth liner at this point and will be 36 when he hits the open market.  That will likely keep him around this price tag two years from now.

Let’s get Seabrook out of the way quickly.  You might have forgotten that he’s here now instead of in Chicago but his situation hasn’t changed as his playing career has come to an end.  He will remain on LTIR until this deal expires which means that Tampa Bay is going to have regular cap space for a few more years.

Myers came over during the summer in the Ryan McDonagh trade and while many expected him to be bought out to give Tampa Bay a cap credit, he was instead extended at this lower price.  Their cap situation has Myers in the minors right now but if he can lock down a regular spot next season, he could be able to land a deal a bit closer to what he’s getting this year.  Bogosian has had a limited role when healthy this season and is more of a depth defender at this point.  A deal around what he’s getting now is where his market should fall.  Fleury, meanwhile, has had a very limited role and until he can establish himself as a regular, his value is going to remain at or near the minimum salary.

Signed Through 2024-25

D Victor Hedman ($7.875MM, UFA)
D Nick Perbix ($1.125MM from 2023-24 through 2024-25, UFA)

Hedman has been Tampa Bay’s top defenseman for the better part of the last decade and hasn’t shown much in the way of signs of slowing down.  At a time when top rearguards are landing more than $10MM when they’re eligible for free agency, he has been a nice bargain for the Lightning and should continue to be for the rest of the deal.  When it’s up, his playing time should be starting to dip which could keep his AAV close to this one, especially if he re-signs.  Perbix has been a pleasant surprise this season which earned him this low-cost extension not too long ago.  It’s a low-risk proposition as if Myers or someone else passes Perbix on the depth chart, the deal can be buried in the minors without any lingering cap charge.

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