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Free Agent Focus: St. Louis Blues

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Free agency is now just a few weeks away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. The big focus in St. Louis is on a disgruntled sniper, but there are other issues to worry about as well.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Robert Thomas – The discussion of RFAs, which is a long one in St. Louis, should start with Thomas, the 22-year-old center who showed real promise before a brutal 2020-21. In his first two NHL seasons, Thomas recorded 19 goals and 75 points in 136 games; those numbers dropped to just three goals and 12 points in 33 games this season. That’s a big step backward for the 2017 first-round pick, but it certainly doesn’t mean the Blues are giving up on him. In fact, it actually might help them in contract negotiations, at least if they’re willing to do a short-term deal. Thomas likely won’t want to lock into a long contract after such a poor offensive showing, meaning there’s even a chance that he could sign his qualifying offer and bet on himself in 2021-22. Just one year away from being arbitration-eligible, a big showing next season could set him up for a huge payday a year from now.

F Jordan Kyrou – Despite being in the same situation in terms of arbitration eligibility, Kyrou comes into this summer with very different leverage. The 23-year-old broke out this season with 14 goals and 35 points in 55 games, becoming one of the team’s most reliable offensive weapons. In fact, given his production came in limited minutes—Kyrou scored all 14 of his goals at even-strength despite averaging just over 13 minutes a night—there’s actually a good bet his scoring totals get a significant bump next season if moved full-time into the top-six (something that seems likely with the expected departure of Vladimir Tarasenko). His camp and the Blues will both know that, meaning a multi-year deal right now is probably the best bet for both sides, even if it does come with a healthy raise.

D Vince Dunn – The RFA list for St. Louis is long and also includes some other interesting forwards, but Dunn’s name is perhaps the most intriguing of all. The 24-year-old defenseman was left unprotected in the upcoming expansion draft and may end up negotiating a contract with the Kraken instead of the Blues, but either way, he’s in line for a significant raise. Signed to a one-year, $1.875MM deal in December, Dunn’s 2020-21 season certainly wasn’t smooth, but still ended up with him averaging more than 19 minutes a night. He scored six goals and 20 points in 43 games, continuing the early-career production that had him so highly coveted. Sure, there are defensive warts, but it’s difficult to find young defensemen that can drive play as well as Dunn has through his first 267 NHL games. Even if Seattle doesn’t take him, there’s a chance that the Blues aren’t the team he’s negotiating with anyway. The team has had him on the block before, and the fact that he’s arbitration-eligible makes it a tricky situation. St. Louis already has nearly $22MM tied up in their top-four defensemen, meaning they may not want to fit in whatever Dunn is awarded, should he go that route.

Other RFAs: F Ivan Barbashev, F Zach Sanford, F Jacob de La Rose, F Erik Foley, F Dakota Joshua, F Nolan Stevens, F Evan Polei, G Evan Fitzpatrick

Key Unrestricted Free Agents:

F Jaden Schwartz – Sometimes overlooked when discussing the Blues’ key players over the past several years, Schwartz has been a consistent offensive producer for quite a while. That is, of course, until the 2020-21 campaign, where he scored just eight goals and 21 points in 40 games. That is a per-game rate much worse than six of the previous seven seasons, which included four 20+ goal campaigns and five in which Schwartz scored at least 55 points. The one season that lines up with that kind of production? 2018-19, when Schwartz had just 36 points in 69 games but then showed up in the playoffs, helping the team to a Stanley Cup. In short, he’s coming off the worst year of his career at the most inopportune time, as he looks for a big payday in free agency. His history will certainly drive interest, but buyer beware with the 29-year-old forward, who has faced some sort of injury nearly every season of his career.

F Mike Hoffman – If you want a weapon for your powerplay, look no further than Hoffman, who had another seven goals with the man-advantage even in the shortened 2020-21 campaign. Even if he doesn’t contribute a ton in the defensive zone, the term “instant offense” applies to the 31-year-old winger. The market was weak enough in last year’s uncertain market that Hoffman accepted a one-year, $4MM deal to go to St. Louis, but it’s hard to imagine him taking that kind of a contract this time around. He’s going to score, you can be sure of it, but he doesn’t exactly play the style that Blues head coach Craig Berube has become known for, and will turn 32 in November. A multi-year deal is a risk, but one that someone will likely take this summer.

Other UFAs: F Tyler Bozak, F Alex Steen (retired), F Curtis McKenzie, F Nathan Walker, F Austin Poganski, D Mitch Reinke, G Jon Gillies

Projected Cap Space

With all those free agents off the books, you’d think the Blues would have a ton of cap space to work with. Well, not exactly, at least until they move Tarasenko out. The team currently sits $17.4MM under the cap ceiling, but a good chunk of that will have to be given out to the restricted free agents that remain. The team only has eight forwards signed to one-way deals, and though young players like Klim Kostin will likely push for spots, there’s lots of work to do for GM Doug Armstrong to fill out the roster.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Blues Interested In Pavel Buchnevich

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  • The Seattle Kraken are reportedly considering a select-and-trade with St. Louis Blues forward Vladimir Tarasenko, but Andy Strickland of Bally Sports Midwest tweets that it could get even more complicated than that. Strickland suggests a third team could be involved in any Tarasenko trade were the Kraken to choose him. That would open up the door for even more salary retention, potentially giving someone the 29-year-old forward at a bargain. Jeremy Rutherford of The Athletic spoke with the doctor that performed Tarasenko’s most recent shoulder surgery, who explained that it is “rock solid” and suggested the sniper would be at full strength for the start of the 2021-22 season.
  • Strickland also tweets that the Blues have serious interest in New York Rangers forward Pavel Buchnevich, who is an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent this summer for the final time. Buchnevich is now 26, just a year away from UFA status, and appeared on Frank Seravalli of Daily Faceoff’s list of trade targets last week, with the scribe writing that Rangers GM Chris Drury has “engaged in conversation about the possibility of moving” him. With 20 goals and 48 points in 54 games this season, Buchnevich has blossomed into a true top-six option that could potentially replace some of the outgoing firepower in St. Louis. It’s not just Tarasenko that could be leaving the Blues, as Mike Hoffman, Jaden Schwartz and Tyler Bozak are also all pending UFAs.

Latest On Vladimir Tarasenko

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UPDATE: Bally Sports Midwest’s Andy Strickland reports that if the Seattle Kraken do select Tarasenko, he won’t be on the team for opening night. They’ll be trading him to a different team.

So you want Vladimir Tarasenko but can’t afford his entire cap hit. The St. Louis Blues won’t agree to a retained salary deal (at least not for a reasonable price). How do you get him? The answer may be the Seattle Kraken. According to David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period, teams have reached out to Seattle in hopes that they would select Tarasenko in the expansion draft only to retain salary and trade him afterward. The Kraken are apparently open to eating a portion of the contract for the right deal.

The 29-year-old winger was one of the key names left unprotected for this week’s draft, after his relationship with the Blues deteriorated over the last year. Tarasenko is coming off multiple shoulder surgeries and has lost trust in the Blues medical staff, according to several reports. Since the start of the 2019-20 season, he has played in just 34 regular season games, scoring seven goals and 24 points. Whether he’s healthy enough to contribute at a high-level next season is still completely unclear, though he did play in all four Blues playoffs games against the Colorado Avalanche–even scoring two goals in the deciding game four.

Of course, a deal like this would also come with an opportunity cost for the Blues. By selecting Tarasenko, they would be passing on the other options from the Blues roster. That includes 24-year-old defenseman Vince Dunn, who was also left unprotected despite registering 32 goals and 102 points in the first four seasons of his career. Dunn’s tenure in St. Louis has been rocky, with several healthy scratches, but he is also a young, offensive weapon that teams often covet.

That means whatever you’re offering for Tarasenko better be worth it, as the Kraken would be eating a portion of his $7.5MM cap hit, giving up a high-end (albeit risky) sniper, and missing the chance to select a young defenseman.

While Pagnotta doesn’t list the teams that would be interested, it’s easy to imagine several of the league’s top contenders would want to take the risk of a half-off Tarasenko. When healthy, he was one of the league’s most dominant goal scorers, putting up five consecutive seasons of at least 33 goals. If Seattle was willing to retain half of his cap hit, for instance, and Tarasenko proves healthy enough to get back to his previous totals, it would be quite a bargain for $3.75MM.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Roster Freeze Notes: Sharks, Flames, Dunn

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With NHL Expansion Draft protection lists due at 4:00pm CT today, the league has enacted a freeze in all roster transactions that goes into effect in less than an hour from now at 2:00pm CT and lasts through Thursday morning after the Expansion Draft is complete. NHL teams are not taking this deadline lightly; numerous reports suggest that the trade market is no less than a complete frenzy right now as teams look to use their expansion flexibility (or lack thereof) to make deals before the clock runs out. Bally Sports’ Andy Strickland spoke with an agent who said he has never seen so many players available for trade from so many teams.

One team that seems poised to make a move are the San Jose Sharks. The Athletic’s Kevin Kurz reports that the Sharks are attempting to add a goalie before the deadline. San Jose is likely to expose expensive, underperforming starter Martin Jones in the Expansion Draft and seemingly would be open to exposing young Josef Korenar as well if they can add another legitimate NHL goaltender worth protecting. Not many teams across the league have the luxury of adding a goalie before the expansion process begins, so the Sharks are trying to take advantage of a goalie market with far more sellers than buyers.

  • The Sharks are certainly not alone in pushing for a last-minute deal. The Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch reports that among the most active teams are the Winnipeg Jets, who are shopping Mason Appleton, the Calgary Flames, and the Chicago Blackhawks. The Blackhawks appear to be specifically targeting a landing spot for restricted free agent defenseman Nikita Zadorov, Garrioch notes. There has been some speculation that Chicago was not enthused about Zadorov’s asking price or potential arbitration award, but don’t necessarily want to expose him to Seattle and lose him for nothing in return. The Flames are far less single-minded; Garrioch calls the roster “unsettled” and believes that many players could be up for grabs.
  • St. Louis Blues defenseman Vince Dunn is out there in current trade discussions as well, reports Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic.  The 24-year-old has been in trade speculation for the last couple of years now but expansion could be the pressure point to get something completed.  Many expect St. Louis to use the standard protection scheme which allows for seven forwards and three defensemen.  The three blueliners expected to be protected in that scenario are veterans Colton Parayko, Torey Krug, and Justin Faulk which would leave Dunn unprotected and seemingly a prime target for the Kraken.  They could go to eight skaters to protect Dunn but would then leave three more forwards available to Seattle.  Accordingly, if the Blues want to get an asset for Dunn, today may be the last chance that can happen.

Trade Rumors: Tarasenko, Buchnevich, Schmidt, Predators

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It is well-known by now that St. Louis Blues star Vladimir Tarasenko has requested a trade, but the extent to which he will go to make sure that request is honored may still be a surprise. Unlike other standout players with trade protection who simultaneously demand a trade while holding their team hostage with a limited list of acceptable destinations, Tarasenko is reportedly taking an “anywhere but St. Louis” approach. The Athletic’s Arthur Staple writes that Tarasenko, who has a full No-Trade Clause in his contract, has nevertheless provided the Blues with a considerable list of teams that he would be amenable to ending up with. Per multiple sources, Staple relays that the length of the list is “double-digits at least”. One team that is known to be on Tarasenko’s list of preferred destinations are the New York Islanders, though the salary cap implications would be tricky for such a deal. It is unknown if other teams who have checked in – the Boston Bruins, Edmonton Oilers, New York Rangers, and Washington Capitals – are also on the list, but the odds are in their favor. One way or another, Tarasenko will be dealt, putting an end to an injury saga that was only resolved once Tarasenko went outside the organization to repair his shoulder. He should be fully healthy moving forward, but with some doubt and a hefty contract, there is some concern about what the Blues will recoup in a trade, if anything. Some have speculated that they may need to attach their first-round pick in order to move the pricey veteran, while others believe he will be exposed in the Expansion Draft in hopes that the Seattle Kraken take him for free instead.

  • While it is unclear exactly why, it has become obvious that Pavel Buchnevich’s name is being floated on the rumor mill. The Athletic’s Rick Carpiniello confirms as much, but does not know the source. This could be a case of teams simply making calls to the New York Rangers about Buchnevich following a career year, creating the illusion that he is available for trade whether the team is taking those offers seriously or not. However, there is also a good chance that the Rangers are at least actively listening or even shopping Buchnevich. The 26-year-old winger has improved significantly in each of the past two years since signing his last contract with the Rangers. Now he is a restricted free agent with arbitration rights and the ammunition to command a sizeable pay raise. With more depth on the wing than at center, including top picks Alexis Lafreniere and Kaapo Kakko, New York could choose to save the cap space for improving the center position, especially if Buchnevich can help to accomplish that goal as part of a trade. Carpiniello also notes that the Rangers have a number of young standouts who will require expensive extensions this summer and in the coming years and the team could be hesitant to let Buchnevich’s deal get in the way. Of course, this is all still speculation, but for whatever reason Buchnevich’s name is out there.
  • It was reported last week that the Vancouver Canucks and defenseman Nate Schmidt could be heading for a split this summer after a less than inspiring first season. However, the team has since publicly denied any talks to trading Schmidt. Nevertheless, Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli still debuted Schmidt at No. 12 on his Trade Targets board and believes that there is something to the rumors. Schmidt was not a good fit in Vancouver this season but still has value in the eyes of teams across the league; he appears to want to maintain that value by leaving the Canucks. Vancouver likely does not want to give up leverage by admitting that their is a mutual desire for a move, but could very much use his cap space.
  • The NHL Expansion Draft allows flexibility with protection schemes, offering teams the ability to protect seven forwards and three defensemen or, in the event that there is a fourth defensemen worth more than protecting three additional forwards, the eight-skater approach. However, there is not much a team can do when they want to protect five defenseman (unless they somehow feel they can afford to only protect three forwards.) The Nashville Predators appear to be facing this conundrum. Earlier in the season, the team entertained trading Mattias Ekholm because it was assumed they wanted to protect Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis, and Dante Fabbro and seven forwards in the upcoming Expansion Draft. However, once the team began to improve and Ekholm was not moved before the Trade Deadline, it then became more likely that they would go with eight skaters instead, keeping all four defensemen. The late-season breakout of Alexandre Carrier threw a wrench in those plans though. The 24-year-old Carrier outplayed and ultimately took the job of the 23-old Fabbro and now the Predators do not want to lose either for nothing to the Seattle Kraken. It has previously been reported that Nashville is trying to construct a side deal with Seattle that would see the NHL’s newest team take a player of the Predators’ choosing with an additional cost, rather than having an open selection of all exposed players. However, TSN’s Pierre LeBrun reports that in the even such a deal cannot be reached, the Predators will try to trade one of their top five defenders. LeBrun believes it will be one trade route or the other; Nashville will not protect all five defensemen.

Blues Readying "Full Pitch Effort" For Gabriel Landeskog

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The Colorado Avalanche have several key free agents to sign this offseason, including captain Gabriel Landeskog. While it has been expected for some time that Landeskog would return to Colorado one way or another, it doesn’t mean teams aren’t preparing for the alternative. Lou Korac of NHL.com reports that the St. Louis Blues will apply a “full pitch effort” should Landeskog reach unrestricted free agency, suggesting that he would move onto a line with Ryan O’Reilly and David Perron.

Landeskog, 28, is coming off another outstanding season with 52 points in 54 games, and will be a highly sought-after commodity should he hit the open market. It’s not often you have a chance to add a still-young-enough star offensive player that adds physicality and leadership for nothing but money through free agency, meaning the Blues certainly wouldn’t be the only team going hard after Landeskog if the Avalanche failed to lock him up.

Several Teams Believed To Have Shown Interest In Vladimir Tarasenko

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  • The Bruins, Rangers, and Capitals are believed to have shown interest in Blues winger Vladimir Tarasenko with the Islanders also on the radar, reports Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Of that group, Boston makes the most sense financially as they have the cap space to absorb Tarasenko’s $7.5MM AAV without needing to match money and if they can’t reach an agreement with pending UFA Taylor Hall, they’ll have a need on the wing to fill.  The Rangers also have the cap room but their biggest need is down the middle.  Washington and the Islanders would need to match money as they’re projected to be capped out by the time they re-sign their own pending free agents which would make a deal more difficult.  Tarasenko has requested a trade from St. Louis and is working with the team to facilitate a deal.

Poll: Where Will Vladimir Tarasenko Be Traded?

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While most of the hockey world was focusing on last night’s Game 5 and the ensuing Cup-clinching victory by the Tampa Bay Lightning, there was one large story brewing in St. Louis. The Athletic’s Jeremy Rutherford was reporting that Blues winger Vladimir Tarasenko had requested a trade from the club earlier in the offseason. While Tarasenko trade rumors were nothing new this offseason, the declaration of a trade request definitely put the writing on the wall for his tenure in Missouri.

With more clarity coming today on the Tarasenko situation, he’s reportedly frustrated on how the Blues organization has handled his shoulder surgeries and the corresponding recoveries. While Rutherford’s reporting claims that Tarasenko now comes with a clean bill of health, the uncertainty surrounding his post-injury ceiling has got to be a bit of a red flag for teams interested.

Speaking of teams interested, Rutherford notes that both the New York Rangers and New York Islanders, as well as the Edmonton Oilers are all teams who are potential suitors.

The Oilers seem like the most natural fit. After all, their struggles to find legitimate linemates for Connor McDavid in the past have been well-documented. With the Oilers getting some cap space to work with this offseason, they’ve been active in most trade rumors. Tarasenko’s no different. If the Oilers can swing a deal, it would likely consist of a defense prospect as well as a relatively high draft pick, as well as a roster player. Tarasenko would inevitably play on McDavid’s right wing, likely with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins or potentially Jesse Puljujarvi on his off-wing flanking them on the left.

The Islanders also stand as a natural fit for the Russian winger, as the team has lacked scoring punch in recent seasons to push them over the top. However, salary is a concern for the cap-strapped Islanders, who also have Adam Pelech and Anthony Beauvillier to sign to contracts this offseason. The Rangers also are an interesting idea, considering Tarasenko would get the opportunity to play with countryman Artemi Panarin.

So, PHR readers, we ask you – where do you think Vladimir Tarasenko ends up after all of this? Vote below!

Where will Vladimir Tarasenko be traded to?
Other (comment below!) 36.55% (1,004 votes)
New York Rangers 27.85% (765 votes)
Edmonton Oilers 18.38% (505 votes)
New York Islanders 17.22% (473 votes)
Total Votes: 2,747

Mobile users, click here to vote!

Latest On Vladimir Tarasenko

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July 8: Last night, Jeremy Rutherford of The Athletic reported that Tarasenko actually requested a trade from the Blues earlier this offseason. The Russian winger apparently is “upset with the team’s handling of his shoulder surgeries in 2018 and 2019,” leading to a lack of trust with the organization. According to Rutherford, a trade is not imminent but is still expected at some point.

June 29: The St. Louis Blues have several questions to answer this summer after a disappointing first-round exit. The Colorado Avalanche made quick work of the 2019 Stanley Cup champions, sweeping them in four games with a combined score of 20-6. While pending unrestricted free agents Mike Hoffman, Tyler Bozak, and Jaden Schwartz could be heading for the open market, perhaps a bigger question mark is the future of Vladimir Tarasenko.

There has been trade speculation around Tarasenko for years now, given his injury troubles since that title run in 2019. The 29-year-old winger has played just 34 games over the last two seasons, recording seven goals in the process. For $7.5MM per season, the Blues aren’t getting enough production (even if his injury issues are out of his control) and now the team could be looking to shed that expensive asset. Frank Seravalli of Daily Faceoff writes that Tarasenko is healthy now, but the Blues are exploring the trade market for the talented sniper.

Tarasenko has two years left on his current contract and holds a full no-trade clause, meaning he decides whether the Blues are even able to move him at all. But Seravalli reports that he has “alerted St. Louis to several teams he’d be willing to be dealt” and will likely not block a move. Of course, that does not guarantee that a trade will be completed, but it at least makes him an interesting player to watch this summer.

The Blues only have eight NHL forwards even signed for next season, with key restricted free agents like Ivan Barbashev, Zach Sanford, Jordan Kyrou, and Robert Thomas all in need of new contracts. Moving out a cap hit like Tarasenko’s makes sense if they want to go long-term and buy out UFA years with any of those young players, especially with other free agent decisions like Colton Parayko coming down the pipe in the near future.

Seller beware though in this case, as Tarasenko has proven to be one of the league’s most dangerous goal scorers when healthy. For five consecutive seasons before his major shoulder injuries, the Russian sniper scored at least 33 goals. That kind of production is incredibly difficult to find in the NHL and if Tarasenko can get back to that level again, a trade may end up looking like a huge mistake for the Blues. Still, GM Doug Armstrong has never been one to shy away from trading out key players if he believes it will improve the team in the short or long term, so the fact that he’s at least exploring a Tarasenko trade shouldn’t come as much of a surprise.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Mike Van Ryn No Longer In Running For Coyotes Coaching Job

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The Arizona Coyotes are still conducting a search for their next head coach, but it won’t be Mike Van Ryn. The St. Louis Blues assistant is officially out of the running according to Jeremy Rutherford of The Athletic. It’s not clear whether that decision came from the team or the coach.

It made sense that Van Ryn would be a candidate, given the fact that Coyotes GM Bill Armstrong was with the Blues for nearly two decades before joining Arizona. The Blues assistant also actually started his NHL coaching career with the Coyotes organization, serving as a development coach in 2016-17 after a stint in the OHL. Arizona has also spoken to candidates including Todd Nelson, Benoit Groulx, Jay Leach and Andre Tourigny as they look to find their next bench boss.

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