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Free Agency Rumors: Bargains, Brassard, Upshall

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NHL free agency is more than a month old, yet still chock full of value. In fact, the Athletic’s Jonathan Willis calls it the strongest August unrestricted free agent class that he has seen in over a decade. So how many of these notable names can expect to find NHL employment before next season? Willis broke down the group of unsigned players, listing five centers, six left wings, four right wings, four left-shot defensemen, four right-shot defensemen, and zero goaltenders that he feels certain still deserve a role in the league. Many of those are distinguished veterans who will comes as no surprise, names like Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, Justin Williams, Derick Brassard, Patrick Maroon, Thomas Vanek, Jason Pominville, Brian Boyle, and Ben Lovejoy, for example. Others are simply role players at this point in their career, having failed to show the upside needed to be an impact contributor, such as Riley Sheahan, Tobias Rieder, Magnus Paajarvi, Dmitrij Jaskin, Ben Hutton, Joe Morrow, and Fredrik Claesson, to name a few. However, the most intriguing names, pointed out by Willis as possible targets for bargain hunters at this point in the off-season, include Jake Gardiner, Kevin Shattenkirk, Oscar Lindberg, Valeri Nichushkin, and Alex Petrovic. Willis believes each one has a high ceiling and has more to give an NHL team than the rest of the list, aside from some of the top veterans. Some of those analyzed by Willis who he didn’t feel were necessarily worthy of another NHL contract? Jamie McGinn, Micheal Haley, Cody McLeod, Zac Rinaldo, Devante Smith-Pelly, Drew Stafford, Andrew MacDonald, David Schlemko, Adam McQuaid, and Cam Ward.

  • One of the aforementioned names, Derick Brassard, may be closest to finding a new home. The Edmonton Journal’s Kurt Leavins has confirmed the Edmonton Oilers’ interest in the veteran center, as they currently have a hole down the middle on their third line. This is hardly the first time that Brassard’s name has been linked to the Oilers, but it is the first time details have emerged. Leavins reports that Brassard is seeking upwards of $4MM AAV on his next contract, which is beyond what Edmonton is willing to pay. They have fair reason to avoid that salary too, as Brassard is coming off the worst season of his career, a 23-point campaign split between the Pittsburgh Penguins, Florida Panthers, and Colorado Avalanche. Approaching 32 years old and already showing signs of decline over the past few years, Brassard will be hard-pressed to get $4MM from any team, never mind the cap-strapped Oilers. Leavins mentioned that the Montreal Canadiens also have interest in Brassard, but the two teams are unlikely to engage in a bidding war. If the Oilers are already in talks with Brassard, they stand a good chance to land him at a fair price, even if it takes another few weeks to move him to a reasonable asking price.
  • Leavins also notes that Scottie Upshall is hoping to throw his hat back into the ring for NHL consideration this summer. Upshall joined the Oilers in training camp on a PTO last fall, only to suffer a serious lower-body injury and to be cut from camp. Leavins notes that he has been rehabbing for the past nine months and feels he is ready for a comeback. The market for Upshall certainly won’t be overwhelming – he was on a PTO last year and is now a year older and coming off a major injury – but there’s reason to think he still has value and could earn another training camp invite. Upshall has had his struggles with both injuries and consistency throughout his 15-year NHL career, but the journeyman forward has cracked 30 points five different times and is an established two-way contributor and penalty killer. His last full season with the St. Louis Blues in 2017-18, Upshall played a regular role on the team’s fourth line, albeit missing 19 games, and was on a full-season pace for 25 points and a career-high 155 hits. If Upshall really is back at full strength, it’s fair to assume that some teams may have interest in his veteran presence and energy role, especially if they can also assume a 20-30 point season on a minimum contract.

Arbitration Breakdown: Joel Edmundson & Jake McCabe

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Salary arbitration season is already almost over, as hearings began on July 20th and extend through this Sunday, August 4th. While arbitration awards are very infrequent, with most cases settling beforehand, occasionally a binding decision is handed down by the arbitrator. Four such cases have gone all the way through the process this year, with four more left on the schedule. What goes on behind closed doors before the point of an arbitrator’s award? The players, aided by their representation and the NHLPA, and their respective teams, aided by a select group of lawyers, each file at a certain salary over a one- or two-year term. The arbitrator may decide on any salary at or between those two points, based on the arguments in each sides’ written brief and oral presentation. While both sides will have themes to base their arguments on, rather than debate only the merits of the player, the bulk of the conversation in an arbitration hearing instead centers around comparable players. Each side will use a tailored group of statistical ranges, both career and platform year numbers, to show how the player compares to similar recent arbitration-eligible players. All statistics are available to use, but their persuasiveness is the key. The player side will look to show that the player is superior to a group of players at a salary lower than their filing number, while the team side will look to show that player is inferior to a group of players above their filing number. Whoever makes the most convincing argument will land the favorable decision.

In our final breakdown this off-season, we’re doing something different and using two players who are both scheduled to go to hearing on Sunday: the St. Louis Blues’ Joel Edmundson and the Buffalo Sabres’ Jake McCabe. The pair of defensemen are remarkably similar and one would almost certainly end up as a comparable player in the other’s case if he was to settle in the next 36 hours or so. Even if that doesn’t happen, the two could certainly share some other comparables. Both Edmundson and McCabe fit within a rough criteria of between 220 and 320 career games played and .175 and .25 career points per game. The same margins were used to find potential shared comparables, but how the players may be used can differ by case. Here is a closer look:

Joel Edmundson

Career Statistics: 269 games played, 13 goals, 39 assists, 52 points, +18 rating, 18:13 ATOI
Platform Statistics: 64 games played, 2 goals, 9 assists, 11 points, +8 rating, 19:23 ATOI

Filing Numbers: Edmundson – One year, $4.2MM, Blues – One year, $2.3MM (midpoint: $3.25MM)

Jake McCabe

Career Statistics: 274 games played, 14 goals, 47 assists, 61 points, -19 rating, 19:26 ATOI
Platform Statistics: 59 games played, 4 goals, 10 assists, 14 points, -4 rating, 18:57 ATOI

Filing Numbers: McCabe – One year, $4.3MM, Sabres – One year, $1.95MM (midpoint: $3.125MM)

Potential Comparable Players

Nikita Zadorov (2019)
Career Statistics: 292 games played, 18 goals, 44 assists, 62 points, -16 rating, 18:14 ATOI
Platform Statistics: 70 games played, 7 goals, 7 assists, 14 points, +19 rating, 17:12 ATOI
Salary: $3.2MM

  • Edmundson’s Case: Team Side Comp – Although Zadorov’s new contract comes in slightly below the midpoint of Edmundson and the Blues, St. Louis will likely still use Zadorov as a comparable player. A similar size and style of player to Edmundson, Zadorov has more experience despite being two years younger. That alone is a strong argument. Although Zadorov’s additional career games played skew his numbers somewhat as a comparison, it doesn’t influence his career points per game, which is higher than Edmundson’s. Both players have very similar ice time numbers in their careers, including a drop-off in the platform. However, Zadorov has made the greater impact in terms of games played, as Edmundson has never surpassed 70 games in a season. Zadorov also has a major edge in the physical game. Edmundson’s camp will argue that he is the more adept shot blocker as well as shot taker and played a bigger role in the platform season, but this is a tough comp for the player side.
  • McCabe’s Case: Common Comp – McCabe has a much better case against Zadorov than Edmundson. First, he is more similar in both age and experience. Second, he has the superior career points per game by a notable margin. Zadorov’s salary is on the opposite side of the midpoint for McCabe’s case compared to Edmundson’s, so the player side will argue that the award belongs on the plus side. However, he could end up as a common comparable player, as the Sabres have a strong case that Zadorov’s age and experience along with far superior physical game offset McCabe’s slight offensive advantages. They can also not McCabe’s lack of availability, playing less than 60 games in each of the past two years while Zadorov has played 70+. Zadorov could be the defining case for McCabe.

Trevor van Riemsdyk (2018)
Career Statistics: 237 games played, 11 goals, 36 assists, 47 points, +21 rating, 18:08 ATOI
Platform Statistics: 79 games played, 3 goals, 13 assists, 16 points, +9 rating, 17:03 ATOI
Salary: $2.3MM

  • Edmundson’s Case: Player Side Comp – How well Edmundson contrasts himself with van Riemsdyk could make or break his case. Edmundson is younger and has more experience that van Riemsdyk did and is unquestionably a better physical force. However, van Riemsdyk has slightly better career scoring numbers and enjoyed a stronger platform season on the score sheet. The team side will counter with these points and, while they won’t succeed in driving Edmundson’s price down to van Riemsdyk’s $2.3MM, they could use him as a bench mark to show why they filed at that number.
  • McCabe’s Case: Player Side Comp – McCabe has age, experience, scoring, and physicality all on his side in a comparison with van Riemsdyk and his camp can use that to show that McCabe is worth well more than $2.3MM and closer to or exceeding Zadorov’s $3.2MM. Again, one weakness that the team side will counter with his health and availability, as van Riemsdyk played in 79 games in the platform season and has a full 82-game season on his resume, while McCabe has missed 50+ games over the past two seasons.

Andrej Sustr (2017)
Career Statistics: 274 games played, 8 goals, 48 assists, 56 points, +2 rating, 17:05 ATOI
Platform Statistics: 80 games played, 3 goals, 11 assists, 14 points, -10 rating, 17:35 ATOI
Salary: $1.95MM

  • Edmundson’s Case: Player Side Comp – Edmundson’s camp could use the Sustr comp to further show that they are worthy of a higher award despite lacking offensive numbers. Edmundson is simply hands down the superior defensive player, with nearly 400 more career hits in fewer games, as well as substantial leads in blocked shots, plus/minus, and ice time. The fact that Sustr is the better offensive player, both career and platform, will come up though and a strong argument by the Blues could bring the price down.
  • McCabe’s Case: Player Side Comp – In the exact same amount of career games as Sustr had, McCabe has only five more points, but has almost 300 more hits and more than 100 more blocked shots. While McCabe’s camp has used offense as their main argument against other comparables, he is simply a much better defensive player than Sustr, as well as slightly better offensively. There’s also age and ice time arguments to be made. Buffalo will simply argue that the fact that Sustr shows up as a comp at $1.95MM justifies their filing number and should drive down the price of the award.

Prediction

When healthy, there is little question that McCabe is the best defenseman among this group. However, his health over the past couple of years is a concern. Whether or not the arbitrator thinks that it is a persuasive argument will play a key role in the award. Using van Riesmdyk and Sustr to boost their case, the player side should be at least be able to get close to Zadorov’s $3.2MM. However, it’s a toss up at that point between the two and the injury concerns could play a role. Leaving a narrow margin for an arbitrator who value blue line offense above all else, the likely range for an award is between $3-3.4MM. It thus stands to reason that McCabe has a good chance of receiving a favorable award.

Although he may be the bigger name, Edmundson’s odds are not as strong. It’s difficult to see an arbitrator agreeing that Edmundson is a superior player to Zadorov, whose salary comes in slightly below the midpoint of the case. That makes the chances fairly slim that he will receive a favorable award versus the Blues. As for the specific result, the van Riemsdyk comparison will be the key, as he is a more similar player results-wise. If Edmundson’s camp can express that Edmundson is not just slightly better, but much better and also younger and more experienced, they could wind up pushing $3MM. Expect the range to be somewhere around $2.6-3MM, though.

Joel Edmundson, St. Louis Blues Submit Arbitration Figures

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The arbitration figures for the last few cases came out fast and furious today from Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet. Joel Edmundson was first, with Friedman reporting that the player had submitted a $4.2MM while the St. Louis Blues filed for $2.3MM. Edmundson is scheduled for a hearing on Sunday. It is important to remember that the two sides can continue to negotiate up to (and for a short period after) the hearing. The arbitrator does also not need to choose one filing or the other, but will almost always decide on a number near the mid-point of the two.

Edmundson, 26, is in the final year of team control with the Blues and will only be able to receive a one-year arbitration award. The 6’4″ defenseman is coming off his fourth straight season as a regular member of the Blues’ defense corps, playing between 64-69 games in each year. He also remained a constant on the blueline through their Stanley Cup run, suiting up in 22 games and recording seven points. A big part of the team’s penalty killing unit, he also led all Blues defensemen in hits for the 2018-19 season.

Like with any arbitration hearing, both numbers filed seem like stretches. There is no way the Blues can afford to pay Edmundson more than $4MM per season for the role he plays, but he deserves more than $2.3MM as well. If it goes to a hearing the result will likely come down somewhere in the middle, though that might not necessarily be the best option for the Blues. An arbitration decision would walk Edmundson right into unrestricted free agency next summer and though they do have some young players ready to contribute, losing one of their stalwarts would only set their blueline back.

The Blues have just over $5MM in cap space currently however and still have Ivan Barbashev to sign as well. Lou Korac of NHL.com tweets that Barbashev is looking for a four-year term like linemate Oskar Sundqvist received earlier this offseason at somewhere around $1.75-2MM per year. A deal like that for Barbashev and a ~$3.2MM award for Edmundson would put the Blues right up against the cap to start the year.

St. Louis Blues Agree To Terms With Nikita Alexandrov

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The St. Louis Blues have agreed to terms on a three-year entry-level contract with recent draft pick Nikita Alexandrov. The 18-year old forward was selected 62nd overall in June and has spent the last two seasons playing for the Charlottetown Islanders of the QMJHL.

Despite having Russian heritage, Alexandrov was actually born and raised in Germany while his father was playing in the DEL. He played in the German junior ranks where he was a star offensive player before eventually going 50th overall in the 2017 CHL Import Draft. After two years with Charlottetown the young forward was ranked 29th among all North American skaters by NHL Central Scouting, but ending up dropping to the very end of the second round.

Last year for Charlottetown Alexandrov recorded 68 points in 70 games, putting him second on the club only behind undrafted overage forward Daniel Hardie. If he returns to the team in 2019-20 he could very well be looked at as their top offensive weapon. Returning to junior would also allow Alexandrov’s contract to slide foward, something that can happen twice. That seems a likely scenario given his unpolished game, though with some careful coaching there’s a chance he is ready for a professional league sooner than that. Of course, Alexandrov and the Blues could decide that he’s ready for a European pro league right now and send him overseas (perhaps to Germany). That would still allow his deal to slide forward.

Toronto Maple Leafs Acquire Jordan Schmaltz

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The Toronto Maple Leafs have acquired Jordan Schmaltz from the St. Louis Blues in exchange for Andreas Borgman. The deal does not include any other assets. Schmaltz is in the final season of a two-year contract signed in 2018, while Borgman was just signed to a one-year two-way deal in March.

Basically, this is a fresh start for two players who were buried on their respective depth charts. Despite including a first-round pick and an SHL Rookie of the Year, neither club might actually be getting any actual NHL games out of the deal. In Schmaltz’ case, the 25-year old has never lived up to his draft billing as the 25th overall pick in 2012 and has just 42 NHL games under his belt with the Blues. He has been a solid contributor at the minor leagues, but has been passed over time and again by other players in the Blues system including most recently by Mitch Reinke, who was outstanding in his first season of professional hockey.

In Toronto though, Schmaltz represents some much-needed depth on defense simply because he is right-handed. Toronto previously had just Tyson Barrie, Cody Ceci and Justin Holl as right-handed options with NHL experience in the entire organization, meaning they needed to find someone else just in case they face injury. Head coach Mike Babcock has been clear in the past that his preference is playing defensemen on their strong side—except perhaps in the case of Ron Hainsey, who played the right side of Morgan Rielly the last two seasons. Schmaltz may actually have a shot at making the NHL roster out of camp because of this lack of depth, especially because Travis Dermott is expected to start on injured reserve thanks to shoulder surgery.

For Borgman, this could also represent a better opportunity to make it to the NHL, though he shouldn’t hold his breath. More likely the Blues wanted a player who was still waiver-exempt and on a two-way deal, in order to fill out their depth in the minor leagues. Borgman could potentially be an injury replacement at some point this season, but given the Blues retained their entire Stanley Cup-winning blue line while also adding Derrick Pouliot, it will be tough sledding to find much ice time.

Interestingly, both players will qualify for Group VI unrestricted free agency next summer if they don’t get some time in the NHL this year. Borgman needs 32 games to keep him a restricted free agent, while Schmaltz would need 38.

St. Louis Blues Hire Marc Savard

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The St. Louis Blues have decided to give Marc Savard his first shot in the NHL coaching ring, hiring him as an assistant for Craig Berube. Savard had been working as an analyst for Toronto Maple Leafs broadcasts and has a relationship with Berube going back to their playing days. The Blues’ bench boss released a short statement on the hire:

I was fortunate to play with Marc during my career and I’m very familiar with his passion and acumen for the game. He was a tremendous player and possesses an elite offensive mind. His addition to our staff will be a great benefit to our players and the organization.

There’s no doubting how effective Savard was during his playing career. Originally selected in the fourth round—likely because of his size, given he had just scored 139 points in 66 OHL games—he quickly forced his way into the NHL and never looked back. The 5’10” center was an incredible playmaker, creating space for himself before finding an open teammate. In 807 career regular season contests Savard recorded 706 points, including back-to-back years of 97 and 96 during his prime. His 69 assists in 2005-06 was the franchise record for the Atlanta Thrashers/Winnipeg Jets until last season when Blake Wheeler recorded 71.

Unfortunately, Savard’s career was cut short by multiple concussions sustained in 2010 and 2011. When the Boston Bruins won the Stanley Cup in 2011, Savard’s name was included despite not having played in the postseason after the team petitioned the league to include it. He wouldn’t play again, though his contract would run through the 2016-17 season.

Savard joins Steve Ott and Mike Van Ryn as assistants for Berube as the Blues attempt to defend their Stanley Cup championship in 2019-20. He is expected to take on a role with skills development and contribute to the powerplay.

A Reunion With St. Louis May Not Be Ideal For Pat Maroon Or The Blues

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While Pat Maroon has indicated that he would like to remain in St. Louis, Benjamin Hochman of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch believes that both sides would be better off if the winger didn’t re-sign with the Blues.  The 31-year-old had an up-and-down season in 2018-19 but did provide a level of physicality that not many others in their bottom six group could.  However, they have plenty of winger depth in the mix already so it’s not as if there’s a glaring vacancy for the St. Louis native to fill.  At this point, Maroon is seeking a multi-year deal which is something that the Blues clearly won’t be giving him.  But if a one-year pact is all he can get, there are other teams that can offer a more prominent opportunity than he’d get by staying with his hometown team.  We’ll see in the coming weeks how important playing close to home will be for the veteran.

St. Louis Blues Sign Oskar Sundqvist To Four-Year Deal

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The St. Louis Blues announced they have avoided arbitration with restricted free agent forward Oskar Sundqvist and signed the 24-year-old to a four-year, $11MM deal with an AAV of $2.75MM. The two sides were supposed to meet with an arbitrator on Wednesday.  Andy Strickland of Fox Sports Midwest reports that the deal breaks down as follows:

2019-20: $2.25MM
2020-21: $2.25MM
2021-22: $3.5MM
2022-23: $2.0MM

Sundqvist is coming off an impressive season for the Stanley Cup Champion Blues, putting up career highs in almost every category. He scored 14 goals and 31 points for St. Louis, including 101 hits, but saw his value rise, especially in the playoffs. In 25 playoff games, Sundqvist scored four goals and nine points, while registering 74 hits and saw his playing time increase by more than two minutes per game (16:08 ATOI in playoffs compared to 13:49 in the regular season).

The signing will give the Blues approximately $4.37MM in projected salary cap space this summer and the team still has two restricted free agents it needs to sign, including forward Ivan Barbashev and defenseman Joel Edmundson. While Barbashev isn’t eligible for arbitration, Edmundson is expected to have a hearing on Aug. 4. However, the team will be forced to make a move to clear up some cap space, especially to sign Edmundson who made $3MM last season and is likely to garner quite a significant raise.

Central Notes: Strome, Fabbro, Fiala, Schenn, Pietrangelo

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It might be tough for Dylan Strome to duplicate his performance with the Chicago Blackhawks this season. The under-performing center found his game once he was traded to Chicago and posted 51 points in 58 games. However, Strome could be in line for another breakout season as the Blackhawks have concentrated their focus of Strome’s offseason workouts on strengthening his lower-body, which the team feels is his biggest weakness, according to Ben Pope of the Chicago Sun-Times.

Because the 6-foot-3 Strome uses a short stick which forces him to play leaning slightly forward. The down side to him doing that is that his vision is limited as his head is leaning downwards towards the ice. The team’s plan is to develop his lower-body and core, so he can play more upright and increase his vision.

“He has all the potential to be able to do exactly what he wants to do,” said Paul Goodman, the Hawks’ strength and conditioning coach. “But physically, [he’s] just going through a maturation process and understanding how his body can actually be pushed further and also be able to translate into better speed, better power, better change of direction, better vision.”

  • Of course it’s still quite early to decide who any team might be losing to Seattle in the upcoming expansion draft in 2021, The Athletic’s Adam Vingan (subscription required) writes that quite a bit has already changed for the Nashville Predators as the team now must protect defenseman Dante Fabbro, which complicates matters for the team. Nashville was hoping to only have to protect Roman Josi (with the assumption that he re-signs with Nashville), Ryan Ellis and Mattias Ekholm. That would have allowed the team to protect seven forwards. Instead, the team will be forced to protect Fabbro and will only be able to protect four forwards instead, thereby exposing an extra three forwards to Seattle.
  • The Athletic’s Michael Russo (subscription required) writes that with the recent signing of Ryan Donato to a two-year deal at $1.9MM, the Minnesota Wild’s top priority is to ink restricted free agent Kevin Fiala now. While Donato opted to sign a two-year bridge deal to prove his value to the franchise, Russo believes that with general manager Paul Fenton’s familiarity with Fiala, the GM might consider trying to lock up Fiala to a much longer deal and hope to get a bargain out of him down the road. Evolving Hockey’s contract projections suggest that it would cost Minnesota about $4.97 AAV to lock him up for five years, but is the team willing to gamble on him is the real question.
  • The St. Louis Blues have had a relatively quiet offseason this summer, but that could change next season as the team has two key players who will be unrestricted free agents next season, including center Brayden Schenn and defenseman Alex Pietrangelo. Both are critical to the team, but St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Tom Timmermann writes that keeping both will be challenging as they are both still quite young and should garner quite a bit of attention on the open market next summer unless general manager Doug Armstrong can find a way to lock them up early.

Ville Husso Signs One-Year Contract With St. Louis Blues

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The St. Louis Blues announced they have signed goaltender Ville Husso to a one-year, two-way contract. Husso, the team’s top prospect in goal even before the emergence of Jordan Binnington, avoids arbitration, which was set for this coming Monday. No salary information was released.

Husso was coming off two impressive seasons in the AHL the previous two years as he posted a .920 save percentage in 22 games with the Chicago Wolves in the 2016-17 season and then followed that up with a .922 save percentage in 38 appearances in 2017-18 with the San Antonio Rampage. It was believed that Husso would be the first goaltender to get recalled last year, but instead Husso struggled all season with an ankle injury with many of the belief that he was never healthy all season. He played just 27 games and finished with a 3.67 GAA and a .871 save percentage. Instead, Binnington got the call and put together one of the most impressive goaltender runs in half a season.

This will be a critical season for 24-year-0ld Husso as he is likely to get the majority of starts with San Antonio and if he can find his old game, could provide the Blues with an impressive tandem down the road as the team might be able to eventually move the contract of Jake Allen. Husso, was a fourth-round pick back in 2014 and was honored as the Finnish Elite League’s top netminder in 2014-15.

The Blues are now down to three restricted free agents now, including Joel Edmundson, Ivan Barbashev and Oskar Sundqvist, whose arbitration hearing is next, on July 24.

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