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Toronto’s Jake Gardiner Still Has No Timetable For Return

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The Toronto Maple Leafs have played 10 games without top-four defenseman Jake Gardiner, who has been out with a back injury, and it looks like the team misses him as they have struggled to a 5-4-1 record without him. Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston reported late last night on Hockey Night in Canada that the Maple Leafs may be without Gardiner for quite a bit longer.

The 28-year-old blueliner has yet to resume skating and there is no timetable for his potential return. Despite often receiving the wrath of fans, Gardiner has been a key element to the team’s defense although his offense has dropped off this year. After posting 52 points last season, Gardiner has scored just two points and 27 assists in 60 games this year. Regardless, the team has struggled without the presence of Gardiner and defenseman Travis Dermott, who went down with shoulder injury on Feb. 27 and was expected to be out for four weeks and appears to be right on schedule.

It’s a tough situation for Toronto to be in after going out and acquiring Jake Muzzin in late January to bolster their defense. While there were rumors that Toronto was looking to add more depth to their defense, the team opted to stand pat defensively at the trade deadline, not realizing that they would lose two of their top-four defensemen not long thereafter. The team must put all their faith in their depth defensemen, including Martin Marincin, Justin Holl and Igor Ozhiganov. The team could also get some relief from the AHL as the team’s top defenseman, Calle Rosen, is close to returning from a foot injury and could fill in shortly.

 

 

Rangers Notes: Tanking, Panarin, Shattenkirk

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A concern of New York Rangers fans all season long has ironically been that they aren’t bad enough. The team had little expectation of pushing for a playoff spot in 2018-19, yet continued to hang around with the likes of the Buffalo Sabres, Florida Panthers, and Philadelphia Flyers in the Eastern Conference standings, rather than down with the Ottawa Senators, Detroit Red Wings, and New Jersey Devils. When the postseason is out of reach, many focus only on an improvement of their draft lottery odds, which has certainly been true with New York fans. While the Rangers’ pipeline is well-stocked and deep with talent at every position, the team is still looking for their next surefire star. Surely after the trade deadline, in which their third- and fourth-highest scorers – Kevin Hayes and Mats Zuccarello – were dealt away, the Rangers’ play would drop off, right? Entering last night, the team was on a six-game win-less streak; however, they had picked up the loser point in four of  those six games and then got back in the win column by taking down the Devils. The Rangers continue to stay afloat, currently ranked 13th in the East and 23rd in the NHL, with multiple teams less than two points ahead of them. If they stay on their current trajectory, the Rangers will likely have between a 3% and 6.5% chance at the No. 1 pick and combined odds of no more than about 20% of landing any of the top three lottery spots. They stand a much higher chance of picking outside the top ten than inside the top three. And there’s no reason to believe that their pace won’t continue. According to NHL.com’s strength of schedule calculations for the remainder of the season, the Rangers have the easiest stretch run of any team in the Metropolitan Division and are second only to the Sabres in the conference. Only half of their remaining games are against playoff-bound competition and five of their final 14 games come against teams presently below them in the standings. So as for those hopes of tanking, they may be all for not. With weak competition on the schedule and top young talent taking more responsibility in the lineup, the Rangers could potentially improve or at the very least stay the course for the remainder of the campaign.

  • If they can’t land one of the top prospects in the coming draft, will Rangers GM Jeff Gorton and company look to add star power in the free agent market? The Athletic’s Craig Custance writes that the expectation that New York will add heavily in the off-season may be overblown after speaking with Gorton. The GM states that he is only looking for players that will be “part of the rebuild, not someone who is going to restrict it.” This likely means a free agent on the younger side who fits the preferred system and the style of the Rangers’ up-and-coming young players. While Custance knows Gorton would never say it outright, Columbus Blue Jackets star winger Artemi Panarin sounds like the ideal target to fit that mold. The 27-year-old has the immense talent to be a short-term difference-maker and the youth and longevity to be a long-term fit who doesn’t clog up cap space down the road. All three of the New York-area teams have been considered likely landing spots for Panarin, the top free agent forward this summer, but the draw of playing in the heart of the Big Apple in front of a Madison Square Garden crowd could be enough to entice Panarin, who has his sights set on growing his persona in the next stage of his career.
  • If the Rangers are going to sign Panarin, it is going to take money and a lot of it. One player who could be shown the door to accommodate the need for extra cap space could be defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk. The Rangers’ big free agent addition just two years ago has not been the player that the team expected and the New York Post’s Larry Brooks believes that he is fighting for life in these final games of the season. Shattenkirk was a healthy scratch the other night for the second time this season, parking himself and his $6.65MM AAV salary in the press box. He has just 23 points on the year so far, the same amount as last season when he missed close to half of the season due to injury. Compare that to 40+ points in five of his six seasons prior to joining New York and it explains why patience is running out. Brooks feels that if Shattenkirk cannot show substantial improvement in his effort and results down the stretch, he could be a prime candidate for a buyout this summer. Per CapFriendly, such a move would save the Rangers more than $5MM against the cap next season, with minor savings in 2020-21 as well, at a cost of just $1.433MM in each of the two seasons after. Despite it being a buyout that makes sense on paper, Brooks writes that “no one wants this”. He has spoken to both Shattenkirk and head coach David Quinn about what Shattenkirk needs to do to improve on his slow, overly-methodical style and it sounds as if they are on the same page. “I know what I have to do, I know how I have to play,” Shattenkirk says, but the question is whether he can actually do it. Failure to act on his shortcomings could mean his days in New York are numbered.

Strength Of Schedule And The Eastern Conference Wild Card Race

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The Tampa Bay Lightning had a chance to clinch a playoff spot last night on the first Thursday in March. While it didn’t go their way, the Bolts are undoubtedly going to be the top seed in the Eastern Conference and are well on their way to a President’s Trophy with a 15-point lead on the next-best team in the league. That next team up is the Boston Bruins, who are second only to Tampa in both the NHL and within their own Atlantic Division. Riding an 18-game point streak, the Bruins’ playoff position is also in little doubt. The Toronto Maple Leafs, currently holding a top-five record in the league, are on pace to finish third in their own division and without home ice in the first round of the playoffs. Boston and Toronto seem destined to meet in that opening round, with the winner likely getting Tampa Bay as their reward for moving on.

As frustrating as the current playoff format may be for the Leafs – as well as the Bruins and Lightning – at least the three teams know where they stand in the postseason structure with a month to go in the regular season. The same can’t be said for the rest of the Eastern Conference contenders. Just eight points separate the New York Islanders, the current Metropolitan Division leaders, from the Columbus Blue Jackets, presently in ninth in the East and on the outside of the playoff picture, in the standings. Between the two are three more Metropolitan teams, as well as the Atlantic’s Montreal Canadiens. With all six of these competitors struggling to pull away from the rest of the group, it could be that each team’s schedule down the stretch determines where they end up by the end of the regular season. Three divisional spots and two wild card spots are up for grabs; who has the luck of the schedule on their side?

According to the strength of schedule numbers released by the NHL this morning, the Pittsburgh Penguins’ opposing points percentage of .555 is the most favorable of the group. That’s not to say the Pens face an easy slate, though. Pittsburgh faces eight current playoff teams in their final 15 games, not including tomorrow night’s tilt against Columbus, but end the year with a nice stretch that includes a home-and-home against the lowly Red Wings and a final match-up against the Rangers. The experienced Penguins team is a safe bet to stay in the playoff picture, especially if they can get healthy on the back end.

The Montreal Canadiens have a similarly easy schedule, a .575 opposing points percentage, but with a dramatically different ending. Fighting for just one of two wild card spots, the Habs will face eight current playoff teams themselves, again not including a game against the Blue Jackets, but only three of those contests are within their next nine games. Montreal may get a nice boost over the next couple of weeks, but face a daunting final stretch; Columbus, Winnipeg, Tampa, Washington, and Toronto await them in their final five games. How they fare against those Cup contenders could determine whether they make or miss the postseason.

With just seven current playoff teams on the schedule from here on out, not including two run-ins with Columbus, the New York Islanders are in good shape with a .567 opposing points percentage. The team also avoids any road trips of longer than two games for the rest of the season. While a regular season finale against the Capitals could prove critical, the Islanders look as if they should be able to hold on to their playoff spot. The health of Robin Lehner could be a game-changer, though.

Things have not gone as expected since Jarmo Kekalainen and the Columbus Blue Jackets went all out at the trade deadline. The team sits outside of the playoff picture currently, two points back of the final wild card spot, and there is no guarantee that things will get better. The Jackets have a .581 opposing points percentage, including ten games against current playoff teams, and play just six of their final 15 games at home. Perhaps the one saving grace will be trips to Buffalo, the Rangers, and Ottawa in three of their last four games, but Columbus has their work cut out for them.

The Carolina Hurricanes have a similarly tough schedule, but benefit from having a game or two in hand on their playoff berth competition. In their final 16 games, the ’Canes will face opposition with a .586 points percentage, ten of which are playoff teams. They also have three sets of back-to-back games remaining. However, with the cushion of extra games and dates with the Devils and Flyers to round out the year, the red-hot Hurricanes are on pace to erase their league-worst nine-year playoff drought.

Finally, there are the defending champs. The Washington Capitals not only have the most difficult remaining schedule in the East’s wild card race, but in the entire NHL. At a .599 opposing points percentage, the Caps are about to go through the ringer in their final 15 games. Ten playoff teams are on the docket for Washington, including three games against the powerhouse Lightning and five playoff teams among their final six competitors. Fortunately, the team does play more than half of their remaining match-ups at home, but there’s little else to find comfort in. If any team in this race is at risk of a dramatic fall from their current playoff position, it is the Capitals, especially if the extra work of last year’s Stanley Cup run starts to catch up to them down the stretch.

Chicago, Philadelphia To Begin 2019-20 Season In Prague

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The NHL has been very happy with their Global Series efforts in recent seasons and very motivated to continue their preseason and regular season ventures in countries throughout Europe and Asia. As early as November, Prague – the capital of the Czech Republic, a major supplier of hockey talent – emerged as a likely destination for a Global Series event next season. Per Sportsnet’s John Shannon, that has now been confirmed and the competitors have been chosen. The Chicago Blackhawks and Philadelphia Flyers will start the 2019-20 season in Prague.

If the 2018-19 format is to be followed , the Blackhawks and Flyers are likely to play just the regular season opener overseas. This season, the New Jersey Devils and Edmonton Oilers started the year with a game in Sweden, which was preceded by exhibition contests elsewhere in Europe. However, in November the Florida Panthers and Winnipeg Jets faced off in a pair of games in Finland, so it could be that the league opts to schedule two matches in the Czech Republic to open the season. All of the Global Series games had great success this year, which could encourage the league to expand on the total number of contests.

Also like the Global Series competitors this season, Chicago and Philadelphia have ties to the location. While the Blackhawks and Flyers are undoubtedly teams that the NHL likes to promote in league events, they also each have popular players among Czech fans. Jakub Voracek, long-time Flyers star forward, is one of the more popular Czech players in the NHL, while teammate Radko Gudas is a Prague native. Meanwhile, the ’Hawks have several intriguing young players with Czech connections. Standout rookie Dominik Kahun has both Czech and German citizenship, second-year player David Kampf came over directly from the top Czech pro league, and NLA superstar and Czech native Dominik Kubalik was recently acquired from the Los Angeles Kings and Chicago could push to sign him this summer. The game would garner great attention in a great hockey country like the Czech Republic regardless, but with several locals to watch it should be a quite popular event.

Schedule For Upcoming NHL “Bye Weeks”

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For the third year in a row, the NHL has scheduled a mandated multi-day break for each team in the middle part of the season. Meant to give each team a rest, much like the bye week in the National Football League, this break also includes limits on practice, including several days in which all team activities are prohibited. A seven-day break this season, on paper an increase from the original five-day break, the “bye week” is actually less intrusive this season than it has been in the past despite the longer length. All 31 teams will take their break either right before or right after the upcoming All-Star Weekend, with those two days counting toward the seven and simply extending what has always been a short break for non-participants. Below are the lists of teams who will take leave on one side of All-Star festivities or the other:

Before All-Star Weekend (January 20 – 24)

Boston Bruins
Buffalo Sabres
Columbus Blue Jackets
Dallas Stars
New Jersey Devils
New York Rangers
Philadelphia Flyers
Pittsburgh Penguins
Tampa Bay Lightning
Winnipeg Jets

After All-Star Weekend (January 27 – 31)

Anaheim Ducks
Arizona Coyotes
Calgary Flames
Carolina Hurricanes
Chicago Blackhawks
Colorado Avalanche
Detroit Red Wings
Edmonton Oilers
Florida Panthers
Los Angeles Kings
Minnesota Wild
Montreal Canadiens
Nashville Predators
New York Islanders
Ottawa Senators
San Jose Sharks
St. Louis Blues
Toronto Maple Leafs
Vancouver Canucks
Vegas Golden Knights
Washington Capitals

How each team feels about taking an extended break in the middle of the season generally varies based on situational factors. While many players would enjoy getting to spend some time away with their families, others would rather keep the pedal to the metal mid-season. More specifically, a team that is playing well and stringing together wins would rather keep playing and not lose out on that momentum. Another team may be in a slump or struggling with injuries and desperately in need of a break. Either way, not every team will be in favor of the bye week each season.

There also remains some scheduling flaws with the mandated break, as most teams will only get the actual seven days or an eighth day off for travel, but others are set to go ten or eleven days without a contest. The “bye week” seems to be a move by the NHL that has enough support to continue in future seasons, but the league could work on sharpening the schedule so as to give teams as close to an even break as their competition as possible.

Philadelphia Flyers Issue Update On Injured Players

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The Philadelphia Flyers, win-less in their last five games, have struggled with injuries at every position this season. With 39 games under their belt already, Philadelphia approaches the midway point of the season as the last-place team in the Metropolitan Division and currently 12 points out of a playoff spot. While new general manager Chuck Fletcher has a reputation for making big trades, the team seems unlikely to be anything but a seller unless their fortunes change dramatically in the second half. Any chance of that happening thus depends on the team getting back to full health and staying that way, allowing for some consistency on the roster to yield results. The Flyers today released an update on six players currently sidelined, paired with predictions of when they might return to action.

The most pressing injury update obviously belongs to starting goaltender Brian Elliott. Elliott, out since mid-November with a lower-body injury thought to be a groin injury, has played in just 14 games this season for the Flyers. With injuries hampering Michal Neuvirth, Alex Lyon, and Anthony Stolarz (also currently out) at times this season as well, Elliott is one of six different keepers to man the Philadelphia net this season, none of whom have had much success. Elliott remains the Flyers’ top option and best chance of winning games. The team relayed that they expect the veteran net minder to finally return to action in the next 10-14 days. They also added that Stolarz, who missed almost the entire 2017-18 season due to injury, is also on the mend and should be back from his own lower-body injury within days.

On the blue line, veteran Andrew MacDonald is also struggling with a lower-body injury, but should not miss much time. The Flyers announced that he will sit for the team’s next two games, but should resume skating on the other side of the weekend. More importantly, young counterpart Samuel Morin, who has yet to play this season due to off-season ACL surgery, is finally progressing toward a return. However, a serious knee injury takes time and, while Morin is back at practice with the team, they don’t expect him to be game-ready until later in February. Up front, young center Nolan Patrick is not expected to miss much time with a recently-suffered upper-body injury. Patrick has missed the team’s past three games, but is close to being cleared and is expected to play at some point next week. Finally, Corban Knight, out since late October following surgery to repair a broke collarbone, is ahead of schedule on his initial four month timeline. Knight will be re-evaluated later this month and is expected to return in February.

The question now is whether or not the improved health of the Flyers makes a difference. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman recently named Philadelphia as a team he expected to be active on the trade market, but acknowledged that it is still unclear whether they consider themselves buyers or sellers. Despite the poor on-ice performance, Fletcher still sees the potential in his new club and would like to improve the roster rather than dismantle it. However, if health alone isn’t enough to close the gap substantially by the NHL Trade Deadline, he may have no choice but to move out his expendable pieces. Elliott, an impending unrestricted free agent, could be a valued piece for teams with needs in net, especially if he can prove that he is back at full strength with some strong play. Neuvirth and Stolarz, who also have expiring contracts, are other potential goalie rentals, albeit less likely to move. The real value for the Flyers would come from moving several forwards, namely Wayne Simmonds, but also fellow UFA’s Michael Raffl and Jordan Weal. Whether or not it comes to that for Fletcher and the Flyers depends on the team’s play down the stretch and they hope that this upcoming return to health helps to make the difference.

Minor Transactions: 01/03/19

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The Minnesota Wild and Toronto Maple Leafs kick off a busy NHL schedule today with an afternoon game which will see Michael Hutchinson suit up with his new organization, while the Los Angeles Kings will face the Tampa Bay Lightning in a David vs Goliath matchup to wrap things up. Six other games will be played around the league, and as teams prepare we’ll be right here keeping track of all the minor movement.

  • Tomas Jurco has landed a one-year AHL contract with the Springfield Thunderbirds for the rest of this season, giving the minor league squad some extra firepower for the second half. It wasn’t so long ago that Jurco was an up-and-coming forward prospect with the Detroit Red Wings, and even last season he recorded 10 points in 29 games for the Chicago Blackhawks.
  • Speaking of forward prospects, the Dallas Stars have sent Denis Gurianov back to the minor leagues after he played just 7:44 last night. Gurianov has looked like a completely different player this season in the AHL, but still can’t seem to establish himself at the NHL level.
  • The St. Louis Blues have recalled Zach Sanford from San Antonio, but will play with seven defensemen tonight after activating Carl Gunnarsson. Sanford will sit out for now, but could get into some action if Vladimir Tarasenko misses any more time with the illness that will keep him out tonight.
  • Stefan Elliott has been returned to the minor leagues by the Ottawa Senators, leaving them with just six active defensemen on the roster currently. The Senators don’t play again until Saturday, giving them a chance to activate another player or recall someone tomorrow.

2019 All-Star Rosters Announced

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The NHL has announced the four rosters for the 2019 All-Star Game today, scheduled to be held on January 26th in San Jose. Earlier today, Alex Ovechkin, who was elected captain of Metropolitan Division squad, told the league that he wouldn’t be attending and will accept the punishment of missing one game either before or after the break. Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, and Auston Matthews will represent the Pacific, Central and Atlantic respectively, as the other captains. A replacement Metropolitan captain for Ovechkin has yet to be named.

The full rosters are as follows:

Pacific Division

G John Gibson (ANA)
G Marc-Andre Fleury (VGK)

D Erik Karlsson (SJS)
D Brent Burns (SJS)
D Drew Doughty (LAK)

F Connor McDavid (EDM)*
F Johnny Gaudreau (CGY)
F Joe Pavelski (SJS)
F Elias Pettersson (VAN)
F Clayton Keller (ARI)

Central Division

G Pekka Rinne (NSH)
G Devan Dubnyk (MIN)

D Roman Josi (NSH)
D Miro Heiskanen (DAL)

F Nathan MacKinnon (COL)*
F Mikko Rantanen (COL)
F Blake Wheeler (WPG)
F Patrick Kane (CHI)
F Mark Scheifele (WPG)
F Ryan O’Reilly (STL)

Atlantic Division

G Jimmy Howard (DET)
G Carey Price (MTL)

D Keith Yandle (FLA)
D Thomas Chabot (OTT)

F Auston Matthews (TOR)*
F Nikita Kucherov (TBL)
F Steven Stamkos (TBL)
F John Tavares (TOR)
F David Pastrnak (BOS)
F Jack Eichel (BUF)

Metropolitan Division

G Henrik Lundqvist (NYR)
G Braden Holtby (WAS)

D John Carlson (WSH)
D Seth Jones (CBJ)

F Sidney Crosby (PIT)
F Taylor Hall (NJD)
F Mathew Barzal (NYI)
F Claude Giroux (PHI)
F Cam Atkinson (CBJ)
F Sebastian Aho (CAR)

*Denotes team captain

One final skater spot on each roster has yet to be announced, as it will be determined by the “Last Man In” fan ballot, a concept borrowed from Major League Baseball. The format of the current All-Star Game, which requires one representative from each team on these smaller 3-on-tournament rosters, was bound to cause some confusion with the initial selections. Seven top-twenty scorers were not selected – Mitch Marner, Brayden Point, Leon Draisaitl, Sean Monahan, Matthew Tkachuk, Phil Kessel, and Gabriel Landeskog – and several will inevitably remain out of All-Star participation even after the fan ballot additions. Morgan Rielly, the league’s top-scoring defenseman, and Mark Giordano, enjoying an elite season on both sides of the puck, are two surprising omissions on the blue line. Several of the league’s top goalies are also going to miss out, ineligible for the fan ballot, including Ben Bishop, Frederik Andersen, and Andrei Vasilevskiy. The “Last Man In” will be an intriguing new addition to the All-Star process, with nominees to be named shortly, but more than a few notable names will be left out regardless. Meanwhile, the health of players like Price and Chabot for Team Atlantic and Hall for Team Metropolitan will bear watching, as those players may opt to skip the All-Star festivities, opening up more players to selection.

NHL Releases Special Events Schedule for 2019-20

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NHL commissioner Gary Bettman announced a new schedule for all the special events happening in the 2019-20 season. While it was reported Monday that the 2020 Winter Classic will be in Dallas, Bettman also announced that the St. Louis Blues will host the 2020 Honda NHL All-Star game, Regina will host the 2019 Tim Horton’s NHL Heritage Classic between the Winnipeg Jets and the Calgary Flames, while Colorado will host the 2020 Stadium Series at the U.S. Air Force Academy’s Falcon Stadium.

There is no word yet on who the Dallas Stars will play next year at the 2020 Winter Classic at the Cotton Bowl. The Athletic’s Sean Shapiro reports that the opponent will be determined by the Stars, NBC and the NHL in a group effort and will be made within the next few weeks. However, with no regional rival, there isn’t an obvious opponent, although some are already suggesting that the Minnesota Wild might be a good match. It’s not expected to be the Blackhawks, who played in the event this year and has already played in six outdoor games. This marks the first time that Dallas will play in an outdoor game.

Bettman said that other venues were considered and will continue to be considered. ESPN’s Greg Wyshynski reports that Bettman said that there has been conversations between both Florida teams of a future night game on Jan. 1. The Athletic’s Joe McDonald adds that Bettman said the league will have discussions with the Bruins after their renovations at TD Gardens are complete about receiving another event.

The Blues will host the 2020 all-star game, which will be held on Jan. 24-2. It will be the first time that St. Louis has hosted an all-star game since 1988. It will be the third all-star game in the city as the team also hosted one in 1970. St. Louis hosted the Winter Classic two years ago, but its success only helped the Blues bring in another big event.

“St. Louis was a great host for us for the Winter Classic, and in the final analysis, the total circumstances including the substantial renovation that they’ve done of the Enterprise Center made it the right time to go back. We have no doubt it will be a huge success,” Bettman said (via The Athletic’s Jeremy Rutherford).

The Winnipeg Jets announced earlier today they will host the Heritage Classic, but the opponent hadn’t been announced. Bettman announced that the Calgary Flames will make their second appearance in the occasionally-held Canadian outdoor game which will be on Oct. 26, 2019.

The Avalanche will get a chance to host their second Stadium Series. They hosted the Detroit Red Wings at Coors Field in 2016. It also marks the second time a game will be at a U.S. service academy. The Washington Capitals hosted the Toronto Maple Leafs at the Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium at the U.S. Naval Base in Annapolis, Maryland in March last year. Just as with the Winter Classic, an opponent has yet to be named and will be determined in a few weeks.

Impact Defensive Rentals Could Be Quite Rare At Trade Deadline

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For an NHL team to grind their way to a Stanley Cup, a few things are almost always necessary. A hot goaltender, who can steal at least a few games through the long playoff run, center depth that can lift linemates up and provide secondary scoring, and extra defensemen who are able to step into the lineup when a top option inevitably suffers an injury. The postseason in hockey is a brutal period of injury for almost every player, and often leads to players suiting up despite major injuries.

Though you might not be able to guarantee the play of your starting goaltender at the trade deadline, you can give your team some help in the other two categories by going after players on expiring contracts. Rentals, as they are referred to because of their short-term nature, are always flipped around the league in the last few weeks of February as teams prepare for a potential playoff run. All but one team usually regret those acquisitions, but they continue anyway.

This year, the rental center market could have some legitimate impact talent in it with names like Matt Duchene, Kevin Hayes and even perhaps Eric Staal shopped by struggling teams down the stretch. Obviously any of those names or the several others available could be re-signed instead, but there should be at least a few options for teams looking to upgrade down the middle.

On defense though, teams might have to settle for players more suited to bottom-pairing or depth roles. That’s not because of a lack of pending free agents on the blue line—although the recent extensions for players like Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Drew Doughty and Ryan Ellis certainly changed the market—but because of the situations their respective teams are in this season.

When looking at the group that is scheduled to be available on July 1st, one name immediately stands out. Erik Karlsson doesn’t have a long-term extension with the San Jose Sharks yet, but that doesn’t mean he won’t before the end of the year. In order for San Jose to be eligible to sign Karlsson to an eight-year deal, they have to wait until after the trade deadline to pass. Perhaps the two sides are just waiting on that to happen, though it’s very unlikely the Sharks would trade Karlsson even if they aren’t. First of all, the Ottawa Senators included a clause in the summer blockbuster that essentially prevents Karlsson from being traded to the Eastern Conference. If the star defenseman ends up on an Eastern roster by the end of the year, San Jose would have to send over another first-round pick. But San Jose is also fighting for first place in the Pacific Division, and likely would choose to keep Karlsson regardless as a sort of “own rental.”

That same situation surrounds the other impact defensive options. Tyler Myers, Jake Gardiner and Anton Stralman are arguably the next three best rentals, and all could potentially be on different teams next season. But the Winnipeg Jets, Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning are all legitimate Stanley Cup contenders and need these players to keep them on that track. Zdeno Chara can make an impact, but holds a full no-movement clause and almost certainly will not leave Boston even if they fell out of the playoff race (something that seems unlikely anyway).

Those circumstances mean that the defensive rental market could be relatively shallow this season, with Alex Edler really being the crown jewel. Edler has been logging huge minutes for the Vancouver Canucks as they continue their rebuild and could help several teams, but beyond that names like Nick Jensen, Roman Polak and Alex Petrovic start popping up. That’s not to say there won’t be movement, but if you’re looking for real impact help teams might have to look for players with a little more term.

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