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List Of Players Not Receiving A 2022 Qualifying Offer

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The deadline to issue a qualifying offer to pending restricted free agents is today at 4pm CT, making any player who has not received one eligible to become an unrestricted free agent on Wednesday. Below are the players who will not be issued a qualifying offer:

(this list will be updated as reports continue to come in)

Anaheim Ducks

Sam Steel, Sonny Milano, Jack Badini, Roman Durny, Lucas Elvenes, Brendan Guhle, Jacob Larsson

Arizona Coyotes

Cole Hults, Christian Fischer, Cam Dineen, Kyle Capobianco

Boston Bruins

(none)

Buffalo Sabres

(none)

Calgary Flames

Johannes Kinnvall, Tyler Parsons

Carolina Hurricanes

David Cotton, Jack LaFontaine, Beck Warm

Chicago Blackhawks

Dominik Kubalik, Dylan Strome, Andrei Altybarmakyan, Wyatt Kalynuk, Cale Morris, Cameron Morrison

Colorado Avalanche

Nicolas Aube-Kubel, Andreas Wingerli, Nicholas Henry

Columbus Blue Jackets

Kevin Stenlund, Gabriel Carlsson

Dallas Stars

Colton Point, Alexey Lipanov, Jordan Kawaguchi

Detroit Red Wings

Filip Larsson, Olli Juolevi, Mitchell Stephens, Kaden Fulcher

Edmonton Oilers

Filip Berglund, Ostap Safin, Brendan Perlini

Florida Panthers

German Rubtsov, Evan Fitzpatrick, Jonas Johansson

Los Angeles Kings

Brendan Lemieux, Johan Sodergran, Vladimir Tkachev

Minnesota Wild

Fedor Gordeev, Dereck Baribeau

Montreal Canadiens

Josh Brook, Kale Clague, Rem Pitlick

Nashville Predators

Matt Luff, David Farrance

New Jersey Devils

(none)

New York Islanders

Michael Dal Colle

New York Rangers

Ty Ronning, Tyler Wall, Justin Richards, Jacob Elmer

Ottawa Senators

Adam Gaudette, Victor Mete, Michael McNiven

Philadelphia Flyers

Matthew Strome, Maksim Sushko, Kirill Ustimenko

Pittsburgh Penguins

Danton Heinen, Justin Almeida, Jordy Bellerive, Jan Drozg, Niclas Almari, Cam Lee, Will Reilly, Alex D’Orio

San Jose Sharks

Joachim Blichfeld, Jonathan Dahlen, Zach Gallant, Jake McGrew, Nicolas Meloche, Antoine Morand, Brinson Paschinuk, Zach Sawchenko

Seattle Kraken

Haydn Fleury, Dennis Cholowski, Ryan Donato, Daniel Sprong

St. Louis Blues

Tanner Kaspick

Tampa Bay Lightning

Tye Felhaber, Odeen Tufto, Alex Green

Toronto Maple Leafs

Ondrej Kase, Chad Krys, Ian Scott, Kristians Rubins, Joseph Duszak

Vancouver Canucks

Justin Bailey, Matthew Highmore, Juho Lammikko

Vegas Golden Knights

Ben Jones, Brett Howden, Dylan Ferguson, Jack Dugan

Washington Capitals

Ilya Samsonov

Winnipeg Jets

Evgeny Svechnikov, Markus Phillips

Teams Debating Jake Oettinger Offer Sheet

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For years, there was talk of offer sheets without any actual action. That’s changed recently, with the competing offers between the Montreal Canadiens and Carolina Hurricanes for Sebastian Aho and Jesperi Kotkaniemi. Now, when offer sheets are brought up, they at least can’t be dismissed entirely.

That’s why this morning’s report from Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic that teams around the league are debating the merits of a Jake Oettinger offer sheet is so intriguing. The young goaltender showed this postseason that he is ready to step into the limelight as a star, posting a .954 save percentage in seven games, almost dragging the Stars past the Calgary Flames in the first round by himself.

With Jason Robertson also a restricted free agent and a few other spots to fill, the Stars have a limited amount of cap flexibility to work with, which could make an Oettinger offer sheet more appealing for some teams. It doesn’t make much sense to sign a player to one without real hope that it might not be matched.

That can draw the ire of opposing managers who are trying to keep contracts low with their young RFAs. In fact, that’s what happened in the Aho situation, with the Hurricanes quickly matching only to retaliate down the road.

So if you’re going after Oettinger, it’s going to have to be a deal that the Stars will have trouble matching, or at least reach the level of compensation to make them hesitate.

The compensation thresholds this year are:

$1,386,490 or less No compensation
$1,386,491 to $2,100,472 Third-round pick
$2,100,473 to $4,201,488 Second-round pick
$4,201,489 to $6,302,230 First and third-round picks
$6,302,231 to $8,402,975 First, second and third-round picks
$8,402,976 to $10,503,720 Two firsts, a second and third-round picks
Over $10,503,721 Four first-round picks

Check here for a more detailed explanation. 

Coming off his entry-level deal and not eligible for arbitration, the Stars could normally keep the netminder’s contract relatively low, especially with a short-term bridge deal. An offer sheet then becomes basically the only leverage that Oettinger’s camp has, meaning these whispers could just be a negotiating tactic.

Remember, teams must use their own draft picks for compensation, not selections that have been acquired from other clubs. It also can’t happen until he actually reaches RFA status on July 13.

Offseason Checklist: Los Angeles Kings

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With the offseason in full swing aside from the two teams in the Stanley Cup Final, it’s time to examine what each squad will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at the Los Angeles Kings.

Before the season began, not many people were picking the Kings to make the playoffs, let alone push Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers to a deciding game seven. The club had brought in valuable veteran players like Viktor Arvidsson and Phillip Danault but was still considered to be in the early stages of a rebuild, focusing on Quinton Byfield and the rest of the young talent in a deep prospect pool. Not only did the team as a whole exceed expectations but mid-twenties players like Trevor Moore, Adrian Kempe, and Sean Durzi emerged as legitimate difference-makers that could quickly give the Kings depth that will make them a real contender in the Pacific Division.

With that in mind, this offseason could be time for general manager Rob Blake to push some of the chips to the middle and accelerate the plan.

Lock Up The RFAs

Before anything huge can happen, there is a lot of work to be done on the restricted free agent front. Kempe, Durzi, Lias Andersson, Carl Grundstrom, Brendan Lemieux, Gabriel Vilardi, and Mikey Anderson are all without contracts for next season, with at least some of those names deserving of long-term extensions. How much cap space Blake and company have to work with will be directly tied to how many years they include on these RFA contracts, buying out UFA years wherever possible.

Kempe, for instance, is coming off a breakout 35-goal campaign and would qualify for unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2024. Any long-term extension will be expensive, and drastically affect the spending limits in free agency. Durzi and Anderson are two other key negotiations after having outstanding runs this year, but are ineligible for arbitration at this point and could be extended on short-term deals that keep costs low.

Decide If The Defense Needs A Big Addition

From the moment his name hit the hot stove, Jakob Chychrun has been speculatively linked to the Kings as a “perfect fit.” The question now though is whether Los Angeles even needs to go out and get that kind of impact name, or just allow their young players to develop and grow into bigger roles. Anderson and Durzi have proven they can play at a high level, while Tobias Bjornfot and Jordan Spence still appear to have legitimate upside. Names like Brandt Clarke and Helge Grans are on their way in a couple of years, meaning if they wait, the Kings could have a stable of capable options without making any moves at all.

Still, the temptation will be there to cash in one or two of those prospects to improve the club for the start of next season and add another experienced, effective option to the top four. There will be names outside of Chychrun that appear on the block this summer, ones that can provide improvement now and still be good enough to contribute for years to come.

Sign Moore To An Extension

Unless you think it was a mirage, Moore is going to be an important player in the NHL for a long time, with his enviable brand of speed, energy, and tenacity. He showed exactly what kind of player he can be in the playoffs, adding five points in seven games while being given brutal defensive deployment against some of the best players in the world.

He’ll also be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season, meaning an extension could be in line before he even gets close to the open market. The Kings have plenty of young players coming but it’s difficult to replace a heart-and-soul player like Moore at the best of times, and his exit would likely be felt even more dramatically now that Dustin Brown is out of the picture.

Fix Cal Petersen

The saying “goalies are voodoo” was felt nowhere more than Los Angeles this season, when their two netminders both experienced the complete opposite of what was expected of them. While Jonathan Quick had a rebound year that saw him post his best save percentage since 2018, Cal Petersen crumbled and made his three-year, $15MM extension that kicks in next season look extremely worrying. An .895 save percentage and nearly -12 goals saved above average was a huge dip for a goaltender who was expected to take over the lion’s share of the work, and now it’s unclear what the Kings will have in net once the 36-year-old Quick is out of the picture.

If he has another down season it will be almost impossible to get rid of his $5MM cap hit, making this an interesting summer for the Kings in regards to goaltending. Do they move one or the other and get another netminder capable of stepping into the starter role on a long-term basis? Do they put faith in Petersen to bounce back, and hope Quick can stave off father time a little longer?

It’s a tricky situation and one that could drag down a potential Stanley Cup contender over the next few years. They only have to look at the team that beat them for an example of young talent being held back by inconsistent goaltending. It’s not an experiment they will want to test.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Martin Necas Drawing Interest

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The Carolina Hurricanes appear to have hit the jackpot in 2020 first-round pick Seth Jarvis, who is already a regular in the top-six and produced 48 points in 82 games (combined regular season and playoffs) this year. With Jarvis’ rocket-fueled ascension though, there have been fewer minutes and fewer opportunities for another first-round selection.

Martin Necas, the 12th overall pick in 2017, saw his ice time drop to just over 16 minutes a night this season and even lower than that in the playoffs, where he failed to score a single goal. The 23-year-old was drafted with the potential to play center but has been used almost exclusively on the wing so far and took a noticeable step backward offensively this season.

He was honest about this fact at his end-of-year availability, telling reporters:

I have to help the team more, I have to produce more. That’s what everyone expects from me and I didn’t do that this year. It was disappointing.

Necas had 40 points in 78 regular season games, not even reaching the mark he set last year in the shortened 56-game schedule. He is now a restricted free agent coming off his entry-level contract with 119 points in 203 career games.

Still, there is so much obvious upside in the 6’3″ forward that it’s easy to understand why teams might be calling. Pierre LeBrun explained on TSN’s Insider Trading that the Hurricanes may not be rushing to trade Necas but if a deal came about for a young defenseman, they would at least listen.

While releasing that information may just be a negotiating tactic, the Hurricanes are obviously considering some changes. Just a few days ago it was reported that Ethan Bear has been given permission to speak to other teams about his own value heading into an RFA negotiation, and with Vincent Trocheck, Nino Niederreiter, Max Domi, Derek Stepan, Ian Cole, and Brendan Smith all set to hit the open market, Carolina could have a very different look at the start of next season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Johannes Kinnvall Signs In SHL

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Another European free agent has decided to take his talents back home, as Johannes Kinnvall has signed a new two-year deal with Brynas in the SHL.

Kinnvall, 24, is coming off a two-year entry-level contract that he signed with the Calgary Flames in 2020, and was scheduled to become a restricted free agent this summer. The depth defenseman never did see the NHL, spending the first year of the contract back in Sweden on loan and this year with the Stockton Heat of the AHL.

With just 19 games under his belt for the Heat, Kinnvall will return to the SHL without much to show for his North American sojourn. He now heads back to a league he has dominated in recent years, recording 62 points over 83 games in his last two seasons as one of the most reliable puck-moving defensemen in the league.

Calgary will be able to retain his RFA rights by issuing him a qualifying offer, though at this point that isn’t a guarantee, given how little action he saw for their organization.

Blue Jackets Notes: Laine, Defensive Development, Foudy

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A year into the Columbus Blue Jackets’ “restart” as GM Jarmo Kekalainen put it, the organization has seen many promising developments from its stars, young players, and its prospects. One of those promising players is forward Patrik Laine, who took another step in his young, but already strong career. This season, for the first time, Laine was able to average a point per game, scoring 26 goals along with 30 assists for 56 points in as many games. The Finnish forward has scored as many as 44 goals in the past, the same year he recorded 70 points, both career-highs, but on a points-per-game basis, 2021-22 was his best. Now, having taken that next step, Laine finds himself once again as an RFA this offseason, a situation that could feel concerning for the Blue Jackets, given Laine’s previous holdout as a member of the Winnipeg Jets in 2019.

Still, there’s no need for concern, reports The Athletic’s Aaron Portzline, who spoke to Kekalainen on numerous topics, including the status of the star RFA. As Kekalainen told Portzline, “It’s just one of those things. It’s gonna take some time, most likely.” According to Portzline, multiple terms have been discussed on a potential deal, but Columbus’ main concern is placing the cap hit at a reasonable term. That is surely good news for the Blue Jackets and their fans, given Laine’s previous history. Though no contract is done, and it may be a while away, it appears the issues for both sides to discuss are merely term and value, the basic tenants of any contract negotiation in any sport, and not any other major issue.

The Laine news is also positive because it should give Kekalainen the flexibility to continue the “restart” and focus on all areas of the organization, as Portzline also details:

  • Looking broadly at what the Blue Jackets are looking to build, Portzline wonders how Kekalainen approaches the teams core of promising, but young defensemen. With a likely starting six of Zach Werenski, Vladislav Gavrikov, Jake Bean, Adam Boqvist, Nick Blankenburg, and Andrew Peeke, hopefuls consisting of Jake Christiansen, Gabriel Carlsson, and Gavin Bayreuther, and a strong mix of prospects, Columbus seems fairly set on the back end. But, as Portzline mentions, the team has more than its share of forwards and may look to move some of that depth out for a more established piece on the blueline. With Kekalainen maybe operating on a quicker timeline, given the term “restart” rather than “rebuild,” he may choose to establish the backend quicker than the young core they have now can establish itself. Having $21MM in cap space and Patrik Laine as the only major extension this offseason, the Blue Jackets certainly seemed poised to make an addition on defense via free agency or trade this offseason if they so choose.
  • A couple of days ago, the Blue Jackets announced a two-year deal for young forward Liam Foudy, which begins as a two-way contract, but becomes a one-way contract in the second season. In his brief NHL career, Foudy has struggled to produce, which raised questions about why the team would give him a one-way contract, even if it didn’t begin until 2023-24. As Kekalainen told Portzline, he believes Foudy will become an NHL regular very soon, raving about the 22-year-old’s game at the AHL level, which saw him put up 19 points in 29 games in 2021-22 for the Cleveland Monsters before being sidelined for the remainder of the year with a shoulder injury. Kekalainen also mentioned that had Foudy not missed such significant time, it’s likely he would have been up and playing regularly with Columbus. The comments from Kekalainen do shed light on why exactly Columbus chose to pursue this type of contract structure with Foudy and serve as a boost to Foudy himself, who has yet to make an impact four years removed from being drafted, but is clearly still seen as a promising young prospect by his organization. Also worth noting is that the one-way contract may not be an issue for Columbus either; if Foudy struggles again this season, he wouldn’t necessarily be a lock to be claimed on waivers anyways, and if he is able to break-out, chances are he will stay with the NHL club in 2023-24. To date, Foudy has five points, all assists, in 27 career NHL games.

Latest On Jesper Bratt

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The rebuild of the New Jersey Devils has largely consisted of draft lottery wins, including Nico Hischier, Jack Hughes, and the second-overall selection in this year’s NHL Entry Draft, a few under-the-radar trades for players like Ryan Graves and Jonas Siegenthaler, a blockbuster free-agent signing of Dougie Hamilton, and the surprising development of a 2016 sixth-round pick: Jesper Bratt. Over his NHL career, Bratt has proven he belongs in the NHL, initially providing solid secondary scoring for New Jersey before a superb breakout season in 2021-22, where he lead the team in scoring with 73 points in 76 games. Soon to be 24 and now an NHL veteran, Bratt finds himself a restricted free agent this offseason at the conclusion of a two-year, $5.5MM contract he signed with the Devils prior to the 2020-21 season.

Despite the success and becoming a major building-block for the Devils, in his updated trade targets list yesterday, The Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli added Bratt’s name into the mix, citing the lack of discussion between player and team on Bratt’s next contract. Earlier this afternoon, ESPN’s Kevin Weekes added to the story, saying he had also heard that there had been no significant extension talks between the two sides (link). Weekes also said he could confirm that several teams were indeed interested in trading for the Swedish winger. Of course many teams would likely be interested in making a deal for Bratt, considering his age, his control as a RFA, and his ability to create offense and support his line. This interest also makes it hard to understand why New Jersey might be interested in moving the winger themselves upon seeing this development and his chemistry with their other young building blocks, not to mention plenty of salary cap space at just over $25.3MM projected this offseason.

Perhaps putting the rumors to bed, however, is The Star-Ledger’s Ryan Novozinsky. You may recall last weekend, Novozinsky addressed Bratt’s contract, speaking directly to his agent, Joakim Persson, who confirmed the sides have had discussions on a contract, which included meeting in person several weeks ago, as well as a few phone calls since. In light of Weekes’ tweet today, Novozinsky reiterated what Persson told him, that both sides have had discussions on a contract, though no deal is imminent. In addition to Bratt’s camp, the Devils confirmed to Novozinsky that contract talks were ongoing and the process takes time (link).

The comments from Persson and the confirmation from the Devils would seem to prove there has been dialogue, one that would likely continue, but today’s comments from Weekes do certainly raise eyebrows. Not having a deal finalized right now is far from a concern, and could be due to a number of factors, some wholly unrelated to Bratt, but the Devils do have until July 13th to be in full control of the negotiations before their star player can talk to other teams, which could lead to an offer-sheet scenario. Though that scenario has not been speculated or reported on, it could serve as a soft deadline to work out a contract.

Looking At Kaapo Kakko’s Restricted Free Agency

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In what would prove to be their final game of the season last night, a 2-1 loss at the hands of the Tampa Bay Lightning in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Finals, the New York Rangers made the surprising choice to list forward Kaapo Kakko as a healthy scratch in favor of Dryden Hunt. It would be fair to say Kakko, the second overall pick in the 2019 NHL Entry Draft, has not played up to projections so far in his young career, however given the team’s choice to scratch forward Ryan Reaves and the apparent severity of Ryan Strome’s injury, along with the developing chemistry between Kakko and linemates Alexis Lafreniere and Filip Chytil, seeing Kakko sit was a surprise to say the least.

The New York Post’s Larry Brooks, who covers the Rangers, wrote this morning examining an interesting parallel between Kakko and another Finnish forward, Jesperi Kotkaniemi (link). Brooks looks at the similarities between the two players from being drafted, the hype around them, and their young careers, Kakko’s with the Rangers, Kotkaniemi’s with the Montreal Canadiens. Brooks also addresses Kotkaniemi’s healthy scratch in Games Four and Five of last year’s Stanley Cup Final in comparison to Kakko’s healthy scratch last night.

At the conclusion of Montreal’s season, Kotkaniemi would hit the RFA market, where he would sign a one-year, $6.1MM offer-sheet with the Carolina Hurricanes which Montreal declined to match, ultimately costing the Hurricanes a first and third round draft pick. After the two healthy scratches in the Cup Final, it didn’t appear that the relationship between Kotkaniemi and the Canadiens was irreparable, however Kotkaniemi was quick to sign the offer sheet, one that Montreal was very unlikely to match. As Brooks points out in his article, Kakko could feel a similar sentiment towards the Rangers.

None of this is a given of course, but if Kakko was interested in a change of organization, choosing to shop his talents when free agency opens on July 13th, the Rangers would be put in an awkward position if Kakko were to be offered a deal like Kotkaniemi. The Rangers have just under $13.5MM in available cap space this offseason, needing to re-sign the likes of Strome, Andrew Copp, and Frank Vatrano, amongst others. Brooks suggests a two-year bridge deal worth $2MM to $2.5MM per season is appropriate for Kakko this offseason, but if he were to get an offer in the range of $4.2MM to $6.3MM per season on the open-market, that would net the Rangers only the same first and third round draft picks Montreal received for Kotkaniemi.

Circling back, the Rangers could afford to match that number, but they have K’Andre Miller and Lafreniere as expiring RFAs next offseason, both of whom would be due significant raises over their ELC contracts. If the Rangers were put in this position, the one Montreal faced last offseason, they may be forced to take the draft picks.

All of this to say, with the Rangers offseason less than a day old at publishing, things are unknown and the ultimate reason for Kakko’s scratch remains a mystery, and any hurt feelings could be a moot point. Interestingly, when ESPN’s Emily Kaplan asked Rangers head coach  Gerard Gallant to elaborate on why he scratched Kakko, Gallant refused to give an answer. Kakko’s future is his own, and to an extent the Rangers’ too, but the parallel to Kotkaniemi’s situation, in recency, in on-ice performance, in being healthy scratched for the team’s biggest game of the season, and now contractually, is incredibly interesting and something to keep an eye on.

Atlantic Notes: Maple Leafs, Richardson, Price

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The Toronto Maple Leafs are pushing on to sign some of their pending free agents, according to James Mirtle of The Athletic, who breaks down each UFA and RFA in the group. Mirtle suggests that both Ilya Mikheyev and Jack Campbell will be elsewhere next season, and examines the tricky situations that Pierre Engvall and Ondrej Kase represent as arbitration-eligible restricted free agents.

One thing he notes, and something that we wrote about recently, is the recent deal for Denis Gurianov and how it and Jack Roslovic’s extension will affect some of these older RFA negotiations. Gurianov signed a one-year, $2.9MM deal (equal to his qualifying offer) after scoring just 11 goals and 31 points this season. Kase had 14 goals in fewer games and Engvall had 35 points this season.

  • It was reported yesterday that the Chicago Blackhawks requested permission to speak with Montreal Canadiens assistant coach Luke Richardson, and today Eric Engels of Sportsnet confirms that the team has granted it. They will also allow Richardson to pursue any other head coaching opportunities that could arise this summer.
  • Engels also spoke to Carey Price, who confirmed that he is currently preparing as if he will be playing in 2022-23. Price recently had a platelet-rich plasma injection in his injured knee, though it’s not clear yet how his body will respond when training ramps up. With the uncertainty surrounding the netminder’s $10.5MM cap hit, this offseason will be a difficult path to navigate for rookie general manager Kent Hughes.

Jim Nill Discusses Robertson And Oettinger’s Next Contracts

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Recently, Dallas Stars GM Jim Nill discussed with the media the upcoming negotiations he has on the table with impending RFAs Jason Robertson and Jake Oettinger (link):

“We’ll have to see what they’re looking for. The cap’s been a flat cap. They might look at it, their representatives might look at it different that the cap’s going to go up. Is it going to jump another 6, 7, 8% over the next four or five years? Are they better to go short term? Those are things that we’re going to have to walk through to see what works.”

Nill’s comments appear to suggest that on one hand, if the players’ representatives see the current flat salary cap as something that won’t go up reliably, they could take a safe approach, resulting in a long-term contract. On the other hand, if either player sees the salary cap rising significantly or reliably coming out of the flat cap, then a bridge-deal leaving them with UFA status as the cap begins to expand could be another smart option.

A long-term deal at a reasonably higher AAV could be an option either way, as it would guarantee something both sides want regardless of the cap situation. If that were the case, it could put Dallas in a tricky cap situation during the flat-cap years, but could be a favorable deal thereafter, and regardless, it locks up a franchise cornerstone player for the long haul. For the player, if the salary cap did expand, they would still have the benefit of a guaranteed long-term contract which could pay them, based on the result of the negotiation, more than they may have made during their RFA seasons.

To state the obvious, Robertson and Oettinger are not everyday RFAs for Dallas. A first-round pick in 2017, Oettinger made an immediate impact for Dallas in his debut for the Stars last season, following it up with another standout performance in 2021-22. The 2022 playoffs were Oettinger’s true introduction to the NHL though, as he almost single-handedly eliminated the Calgary Flames in the first round, playing to an incredible 1.81 goals-against average and .954 save-percentage in seven games. The start to Oettinger’s career sounds remarkably similar to that of Matt Murray, who had a strong, but quiet debut for the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2015-16 before bursting onto the scene in the 2016 playoffs, dominating for the Penguins en route to a Stanley Cup. Murray would follow it up with a strong showing in his first full season in the 2016-17 regular season and playoffs before signing a three-year, $11.25MM contract with Pittsburgh. If Oettinger were to take a bridge deal while waiting out the flat cap, one could expect it to look similar to this. Best yet for Oettinger is after Murray failed to replicate his early success during the life of that contract, he still was able to sign a four-year, $25MM deal after being dealt to the Ottawa Senators, signing before the 2020-21 season.

Impressive as Oettinger’s breakout was, Jason Robertson arguably stole the show. Dallas’ second-round pick in 2017, Robertson debuted for three games in 2019-20 before a strong rookie season in 2020-21, where he tallied 17 goals and 28 assists in 51 games. Already established as a key piece for Dallas, Robertson became a superstar in 2021-22, scoring 41 goals to go with 38 assists in just 74 games, adding another four points in seven playoff contests before hitting the RFA market. Like Oettinger, Robertson has put himself in a strong position going forward, but must decide how to approach the negotiations, considering the state of the salary cap.

As the above-mentioned article suggests, Robertson could go for the shorter bridge deal, potentially leading to a cap hit of $7MM, but could find himself with a cap hit as high as $9MM should he agree to a long-term deal. New York Islanders’ forward Mat Barzal signed a three-year bridge deal worth $7MM prior to the 2020-21 season. Though Robertson’s 2021-22 season was stronger than Barzal’s 2019-20, Barzal did have three years of success, including an 85-point rookie season, as well as significant playoff experience, as compared to Robertson’s two full seasons of overall similar quality to Barzal.

Looking at a long-term contract, there isn’t much precedent for a contract in the $9MM AAV range for players coming off of their entry-level contract. Kyle Connor signed a seven-year contract with an AAV just shy of $7.15MM after back-to-back 57 and 66 point seasons and Nick Suzuki signed an eight-year contract with an AAV of $7.875MM after 41 points in 71 games in his rookie season and another 41 points in a lesser 56 games in the COVID-shortened 2020-21 season. Notably, Suzuki also produced an outstanding 23 points in 32 playoff games over those two seasons. Going the other way, Mitch Marner signed for six-years at just over $10.9MM per season after 94 points in 82 games the season prior; this season, Robertson was on pace for 87 points over 82 games. Unlike Robertson, Marner began his career with 61 and 69 point seasons. With no perfect comparison to Robertson, taking the history of these three comparable players shows that a long-term deal for Robertson in the $9MM AAV range is certainly within reason.

After an impressive playoff performance, Nill will have plenty on his plate this offseason to help a Stars organization complete with a mix of veteran and young talent take the next step and ultimately transition it from the veteran core to the young core. The first of these steps will be a big one, necessitated by these two big RFA contracts.

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