For years, there was talk of offer sheets without any actual action. That’s changed recently, with the competing offers between the Montreal Canadiens and Carolina Hurricanes for Sebastian Aho and Jesperi Kotkaniemi. Now, when offer sheets are brought up, they at least can’t be dismissed entirely.
That’s why this morning’s report from Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic that teams around the league are debating the merits of a Jake Oettinger offer sheet is so intriguing. The young goaltender showed this postseason that he is ready to step into the limelight as a star, posting a .954 save percentage in seven games, almost dragging the Stars past the Calgary Flames in the first round by himself.
With Jason Robertson also a restricted free agent and a few other spots to fill, the Stars have a limited amount of cap flexibility to work with, which could make an Oettinger offer sheet more appealing for some teams. It doesn’t make much sense to sign a player to one without real hope that it might not be matched.
That can draw the ire of opposing managers who are trying to keep contracts low with their young RFAs. In fact, that’s what happened in the Aho situation, with the Hurricanes quickly matching only to retaliate down the road.
So if you’re going after Oettinger, it’s going to have to be a deal that the Stars will have trouble matching, or at least reach the level of compensation to make them hesitate.
The compensation thresholds this year are:
|$1,386,490 or less||No compensation|
|$1,386,491 to $2,100,472||Third-round pick|
|$2,100,473 to $4,201,488||Second-round pick|
|$4,201,489 to $6,302,230||First and third-round picks|
|$6,302,231 to $8,402,975||First, second and third-round picks|
|$8,402,976 to $10,503,720||Two firsts, a second and third-round picks|
|Over $10,503,721||Four first-round picks|
Check here for a more detailed explanation.
Coming off his entry-level deal and not eligible for arbitration, the Stars could normally keep the netminder’s contract relatively low, especially with a short-term bridge deal. An offer sheet then becomes basically the only leverage that Oettinger’s camp has, meaning these whispers could just be a negotiating tactic.
Remember, teams must use their own draft picks for compensation, not selections that have been acquired from other clubs. It also can’t happen until he actually reaches RFA status on July 13.
dave frost nhlpa
He could really set himself up if he went 7/$37M and go home to MN where he will rake endorsements.
Dallas would match.
Not to mention the Wild don’t have the cap space for that. Doesn’t mean they couldn’t make some but I just don’t see Billy doing this
Let the flat-cap games begin! But really thought, what is DAL’s pivot? Darcy? MAF?
I would assume that Dallas would match any offer that came through considering Oettinger’s performance. He did fantastic in the postseason, yeah, but that was a fairly small sample size and his regular season numbers were fairly average. I think the 37M, 7 year deal mentioned above would be fair (comparable to Demko’s contract), but the other GMs around the league aren’t going to offer something much higher than that because they won’t take the risk of giving him a large payday based on a couple of average seasons and one playoff series.
Well, sure, but let’s just play devil’s advocate and say someone way overpays. It’s worth them having a backup plan, especially with them possibly needing a veteran addition anyway.
You know I was so focused on the first question I totally forgot about the second question…and I have no clue.
Darcy would be awesome, but my concern is the development. We simply don’t have much other goalies in the pipeline, and there’s just not a lot of good goalies this draft.
Darcy is likely staying in Colorado anyways, so that’s not ideal. Fleury I doubt would want to go to another transition team after the Chicago kerfuffle last offseason. Campbell is off the table for obvious reasons even if there’s a different management team that drafted him now. Husso?
That’s true, I guess. Husso looks good because he’s a bit younger and can stick around longer.
You guys are amusing. Hint: simply because a team pays more that you think they should does not make it an overpay. This stuff was discussed on the first day of junior high economics.
In this situation an “overpay” would be done in order to put the Stars in a cap crunch. Less focused on the value of the player and more on what a contract needs to look like to put the Stars in a tough spot.
Also, I’m pretty sure I didn’t have economics in junior high, unless you count home ec, which I only just realized stood for home economics lol
sorry “above market value”
I’m gonna be honest, the format of the compensation thresholds is kinda hard to read.
Also, it looks like there’s 2 sentences that got combined without a period in paragraph 3
The JK offer sheet by Carolina was just a vengeful move by Waddell and It will bite the Canes In the butt eventually.
But in the end the Canes got a young Center signed to a tad over $4mil cap hit x8 years
Edmonton should recover their 3rd from Chicago and then offer sheet Jake Oettinger for $5M at 5yrs, only give up a 1st and a 3rd.
Dallas would match that.
It would take going over $9mil per to get Jim Nill to even consider not matching it. Robertson still needs to sign but the Stars cannot let Oettinger walk without getting back 2 1sts (or more) at the minimum. The Stars do have $18.5 million in cap space available.
Which team has a need in goal AND the cap space to pull off this kind of offer sheet?
I don’t doubt teams want him but don’t see the legitimate candidates to pull this off*.
Seems more like the kind of story an agent floats to get the GM to up his offer.
*Except maybe Buffalo but they have multiple goalie prospects.
I think a bunch could. I mean the Oilers have need of a starter and have been turned down by Gibson, Fleury and Varlamov. They are desperate enough. I mean given the choice between Husso at 5-6 mil or Oettinger at 8. I would have to think it’s an easy choice.
Holland paid 6 mil for Keith. He would easily pay 8.4 for Oettinger. He also has all 3 picks next year and has shown countless times that he doesn’t care about his picks the way other GMS do. I mean he gave away his 4th this year on a guy that was never going to make the team and he was a pending UFA. He threw in a second to get Keith at 6 mil. I mean these picks mean nothing.
Holland is also the highest paid GM in the league with really one main task this summer. To grab a goalie and the only thing Holland has really said is said that you need to develop a top 10 goalie, not trade for one. Saying this after passing on the top ranked goalie twice in the three years he has been the GM in Edmonton.
Sounds like the best and maybe only goalie for Holland is Oettinger. To get him will have to be an over pay. Edmonton has the picks, the cap space and the need. That said, they don’t have a GM smart enough to pull off an offer sheet.
Edmonton only has 7.13M of space with only 15 players rostered. they do not have the space you claim they do.
Would be stupid not to at least talk to him about offer sheet if less then $4,201,488 so you only give up a 2 nd and the next step up not bad either
The Mistake of Giving Eugene Melnyk a Liver Transplant
A “double offer sheet” from someone like Detroit could make sense. $4.2MM AAV for Oettinger and $6.3MM AAV for Jason Robertson. Force Dallas into an uncomfortable situation, perhaps.
Why would Robertson sign that?
Most people don’t realize that the player has to sign the offer sheet for it to happen.
Depends on term, DeBrincat got 3 @ $6.4M which I think is a fair comp
Would put him 2 years from UFA, right as the cap starts to go up and would have a QO of $9M+ … not a bad position to be in at age 25
The Mistake of Giving Eugene Melnyk a Liver Transplant
They would match it. That would make Jim Nill happy as a clam & leave him over $7mil to lock in Hinze.
Do they have to disclose they are talking to players about a possible offer sheet or can you keep it quiet till the player actually sings and the team has a chance to match
Buffalo realistically has UPL & Levi that GMKA feels is their goalies of the future. I would not offer sheet Oettinger at all if I was the Sabres. Hypothetical after the draft (highly doubtful)……..
The Sabres offer sheet Jake Oettinger $9.75mil per 5 years. They would be crossing their fingers that
A- Oettinger is not a one hit wonder.
B- he stays healthy.
C- this doesn’t cost them the ability to sign long term Tage, Dahlin & Power.
The Sabres still have Skinner & his $9mil per cap hit for 5 more years.
My top 2 options/moves in goal-
Sign UPL to a 3 year deal ($1mil, $1.2mil & $1.4mil)
Sign a E. Comrie to a 2 year deal ($1.5mil & $1.6mil 3rd?- $1.7mil)
If needed add $250k to $300k/yr If you have competition for his services.
Last season ($750k) 19g 2.55gaa .920%