Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

PHR Mailbag: Ullmark, Rangers, Trouba, Marner, Tkachuk-Huberdeau Trade, Laine, Holl

June 15, 2024 at 2:59 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 15 Comments

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Jacob Trouba’s future with the Rangers, Patrik Laine’s situation in Columbus, and much more. If your question doesn’t appear here, we’ll have two more of these columns between now and next weekend so watch for it in one of those.

@JJFlip1995: What is the likelihood that the Bruins trade Ullmark and what is a likely return from said trade?

GM Don Sweeney has made it clear that he’d love to keep both netminders. I think he’s speaking truthfully about that desire. But I would be absolutely stunned if it actually happened. Jeremy Swayman is heading for a pricey long-term contract which would push Boston’s spending on goaltenders near the top of the NHL. Given that they have some needs to fill while having some rare spending flexibility this summer, I’m not sure that spending big between the pipes is the best way to do it. It’ll help during the regular season but come playoff time, we saw how little having Ullmark as a high-end second option mattered.

As for a return, I don’t think it’s going to be a huge one. With what’s believed to be multiple other veteran starters available this summer, the market isn’t going to be too strong beyond the top option (and that’s not Ullmark). I don’t see the high-end picks being in play over the next couple of weeks.

A lot will depend on if the Bruins are taking a contract back as part of the swap. If they’re just moving him straight up, they might get a late first-round pick and even that might be on the high side if other dominoes fall first. I think their preference might be to try to swap Ullmark for a skater to fill one of their other holes with a minimal cap effect. At that point, you’re probably looking at a second-pairing defender or a second-line winger. If they can do that and then back-fill with Brandon Bussi taking over behind Swayman, that would be a solid outcome for them.

@RamonesFan41: Who will the Rangers buy out? Trouba, Goodrow, or someone else???

Can I pick none of the above? I don’t think they buy out anyone, to be honest.

I’ll talk a bit more about Trouba shortly but a buyout costs them $4MM for the next two years and then $2MM for two more years after that. Can the Rangers get a better defenseman for $4MM or less? I don’t think they can. So if you’re not able to upgrade that position, why buy him out and make the team worse? He didn’t have a great playoff showing but he can still be a contributor so I don’t think they even consider the possibility of a buyout for him.

As for Barclay Goodrow, you could sell me on the idea, at least. The buyout price tag isn’t crazy. They’d have a cap credit next season of $200K followed by a $1MM cap charge in 2025-26 before ballooning to a $3.5MM charge in 2026-27. From there, it’s a little over $1.1MM for three more years. If they need extra money now, they could buy him out and pre-spend some of the expected cap increase in 2026-27 to cover the higher cost at that time.

But Goodrow is coming off a strong postseason showing where he was one of their leaders in goals with six. He’s a player who is more effective in the playoffs and I think some might suggest they need more of those players, not less. I wouldn’t be shocked if they bought him out but I’m leaning no right now.

Looking at the rest of the roster, I don’t see a viable candidate. If they have reservations about Filip Chytil being able to stay healthy moving forward, they could try to buy him out at one-third of the cost but with the concussion issues he had, I suspect that’s a grievance waiting to happen. That’s really about it for options so I don’t expect them to go that route in the next couple of weeks.

met man: Do the Rangers stand pat or make moves to improve the team via trades or free agent signings?

With a little over $9MM in cap room per CapFriendly, New York has enough cap space to re-sign Ryan Lindgren and Braden Schneider and round out the roster so they don’t have to necessarily do anything. They wouldn’t be able to do much else but starting next season with the bulk of this core intact isn’t a bad way to go. We are, after all, talking about the team that had the most points during the regular season so it’s a good group.

Kaapo Kakko feels like a possible trade chip even with his new deal. Maybe there’s a winger at a similar price tag that they feel is a better fit on the roster or if they want a free agent in that price range, perhaps you look at moving him for a draft pick. I wouldn’t be shocked if they looked at some lower-cost free agents as well. In general, I expect a fairly quiet offseason from them.

But if it were up to me, I’d look to try to go into next season with a couple million in cap space. They have some waiver-exempt players who could be shuffled back and forth on off days to add to that amount. Maintaining that to the trade deadline is worth around $9MM to $10MM in full-season salaries, giving them the ability to add multiple players. If they make a move now, it probably caps them out. I’d rather try to get two pieces in-season than one during the summer, especially on a team that is already somewhat of a contender.

Schwa: Do you see the Rangers moving on from Trouba? What could you see as the additional assets given to get him off the books?

Maybe a team like Utah could be a fit given they have no D under contract for next season. $8MM for two seasons isn’t too bad for a team to get a physical player who offers leadership. They need to spend some money and he likely won’t provide a cap crunch for them by the time the contract expires.

Let’s talk about Trouba a bit more now. As I already noted earlier, I don’t see a buyout happening. It’s fair to say that he underachieved this season and that doesn’t help his short-term trade value. Neither does an $8MM price tag. Yes, two years remaining makes it more manageable but how many teams can realistically afford that? Perhaps more importantly, how many good teams can afford that?

You identified Utah as a possible landing spot and your logic is certainly sound. That’s definitely a team that could benefit from a shorter-term veteran add to try to stabilize things and they can certainly afford the contract. But they’re not a playoff team. Trouba has a 15-team no-trade clause as of July 1st (with a full no-move before then). Personally, I think it stands to reason that he’d have some non-playoff teams on that list which probably takes Chicago and San Jose, other weaker teams with ample cap room, off the table as well.

If you look at the list of playoff teams this year that can probably afford to take on an $8MM contract without it materially affecting what else they might try to do this summer, Nashville comes to mind. The problem is they might be the only team on that list.

Without many viable options for a cap dump, they might have to look at trying to move him for another player. But in doing that, they’re mitigating the cap savings and if I’m being honest, I don’t think they’d get the best player in the move. If you’re a contender, how much is it worth it to take a lesser player back (one that won’t log 20-plus minutes a night on the right side of the back end) and only get a bit of cap savings? That doesn’t seem like a great idea to me. Never say never but I think he stays put.

frozenaquatic: Panarin straight up for Marner. NTCs notwithstanding, who says no? Fills organizational holes for each, and opens up first-line LW for Lafreniere. Panarin’s a little better but Marner is a little younger. Similar contracts.

Trouba to Hockey Club Sibir Novosibirsk Oblast for two pucks and a mouthguard. Who says no? The mouthguard?

I think we’ve covered Trouba more than enough by now but let’s talk about the first proposal. In a vacuum, I don’t dislike the offer for either side; your quick logic makes sense. I do think both sides would say no, however.

From Toronto’s perspective, the idea of trading Mitch Marner would be to change up the composition of their roster. Maybe it’s for a prominent blueliner, a power forward, a future center to possibly replace John Tavares, or a combination of the three. Artemi Panarin does none of that. He gets them an extra year of club control at a slightly higher price tag which isn’t nothing but that’s not the type of roster shakeup I think they’d be looking to do.

Meanwhile, for the Rangers, while they save a bit of money for next season, it could cost them considerably for 2025-26. If they can’t re-sign Marner, then they’ve lost a year of a player who just put up 120 points. And if they can re-sign him, it’s probably going to be at a price tag that’s higher than Panarin’s which could be notable as they potentially look to reshape their roster. Having said that, I think they’d be the likelier of the two teams to say yes even though I think they’d say no in the end.

PyramidHeadcrab: Since hindsight is 20/20, who won the Tkachuk-Huberdeau trade? I gotta imagine Florida wins that one by a mile, but can we prove it with numbers? I distinctly remember the Florida fanbase having an absolute meltdown, “Tkachuk is just a mid power forward without Gaudreau!” But in watching this guy the past couple years, I personally think he’s become my favourite player since Paul Kariya.

Still gotta get me a Kariya #9 Ducks jersey…

And speaking of the other casualty of Calgary’s cap crunch, what does Johnny Gaudreau need to be successful going forward in Columbus?

Right now, it’s Florida by a considerable margin in that trade. Matthew Tkachuk has outscored both Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar combined since the swap (197 points to 190) and makes $7.25MM less. I think that’s all the numbers that are really needed.

Tkachuk has proven himself to be a legitimate top-line power forward whose style fits in perfectly with a grittier group that the Panthers have. And while a $9.75MM price tag certainly isn’t cheap, he’d get considerably more than that if he was hitting the open market next month.

Meanwhile, Huberdeau has struggled immensely under two different head coaches now over his first two years in Calgary. He’s one of the highest-paid wingers in the league and is producing like a second-liner with two years of a little over 50 points. That can’t be spun as a positive. They need a whole lot more from him and barring an influx of offensive talent, I’m not sure he can be counted on to produce anywhere close to the level he was with Florida.

I will say this, however. Weegar had a great season, scoring 20 goals and 52 points while logging nearly 23 minutes a night. He’s a legitimate top-pairing player and at $6.25MM on a long-term deal, they’ll get some good value out of that for a while, either with the Flames or as part of a trade if they opt for a rebuild.

It’s hard to say Florida will lose this deal, especially if they’re able to close things out against Edmonton. Right now, it looks pretty lopsided but if Huberdeau can return to a top-line level, Calgary could still do relatively well here.

As for Gaudreau, he needs higher-end linemates. Boone Jenner is a very good center, one of the more underrated ones even. But he’s not a true top-line option, especially offensively. A well-rounded offensive middleman to play off of would make a big difference. I think they have that in their system, it’s just a matter of getting Adam Fantilli more development time. In an ideal world, a big winger on the other side to do some of the board work would also help. So, too, would a more free-flowing system. In other words, Gaudreau needs a lot to go right if he wants to get back to the point-per-game level.

W H Twittle: What is Patrik Laine’s future? Will he be traded? Is Laine’s contract a negative value? If so, will Waddell need to add a sweetener to trade Laine? Or, will Laine’s contract get traded for a better yet still not very good contract plus a sweetener (for example: Josh Anderson plus Struble)?

With word coming out this week that the Blue Jackets and Laine are in agreement that a change of scenery would be best, I think it’s safe to say that a move is likely going to happen. I took a look at his case in some detail last month so I won’t go as detailed here.

In that mailbag, I discussed the three scenarios – give him away (I don’t think he’s in true negative value territory) for the cap and salary relief, retain and get some positive value back, or find another pricey short-term contract to try to swap him for. Your scenario with Montreal falls toward the latter category and I tend to agree that it’s the most realistic.

Laine’s trade value isn’t great right now. I’d go as far as saying that it’s never been lower. An $8.7MM AAV for someone who has missed more games than he has played the last two years is on the high side so teams won’t be coming in with great offers. But if they can take back an underachieving higher-priced contract, they might be able to get a secondary piece out of it. That’s a far cry from what they gave up to get him but sometimes, you have to take whatever the best you can get is and go from there. This feels like one of those times.

decaguard: What would it cost Detroit to move Holl?

This was a contract that had a lot of people scratching their heads when it was signed. While I think Justin Holl is a serviceable third-pairing defender, you generally don’t see teams giving three years at $3.4MM per year to a serviceable third-pairing defender. Not surprisingly, that had him out of the lineup quite regularly.

Before talking about a trade, let’s look at the other option first for context, a buyout. Since the salary is the same each year, the structure is nice and simple; it’d be $1.133MM for each of the next four years.

PuckPedia has a cap relief calculator that provides an estimate of what the required incentive would be for a team to take on Holl’s contract. For a team taking on the full freight, it suggests a late first-round pick would be required. They don’t exactly have that. At 50% retention, their second-round selection is around the recommended value. Speculatively, there might be a scenario where their second rounder plus another pick is enough to clear the contract.

But here’s the thing. Is that a better option than a buyout? With 50% retention, you’re losing a pick and taking on a higher cap charge the next two years to avoid the dead money in 2026-27 and 2027-28. I don’t think coughing up two decent picks to clear the full contract is any better either. I think the buyout is a better play here compared to a trade.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Focus: Nashville Predators

June 15, 2024 at 9:25 am CDT | by Josh Cybulski Leave a Comment

Free agency is now just a month away and teams are looking ahead to when it opens. There will be several impact players set to hit the open market in July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. We continue our look around the NHL with an overview of the free agent situation for the Predators.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Jaret Anderson-Dolan – The 24-year-old played just one game with the Predators this season after being claimed off waivers from the Los Angeles Kings. The Calgary, Alberta native played 31 games total, posting just a goal and three assists. A former second-round pick in 2017, Anderson-Dolan was thought to be a player who could develop into a bottom-six scoring option, but to this point in his career, his game hasn’t translated well to the NHL. His size is an issue as he does get overpowered by stronger defensemen, and he isn’t a great passer by NHL standards. However, he brings energy, can shoot the puck, and is a good forechecker. Given his lack of NHL success, it’s possible that Nashville may elect not to issue Anderson-Dolan a qualifying offer.

Other RFAs: F Egor Afanasyev, RW Wade Allison, D Marc Del Gaizo, G Gustavs Grigals, D Spencer Stastney, D Adam Wilsby, F Liam Foudy, C Juuso Parssinen, F Philip Tomasino

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Anthony Beauvillier – Beauvillier picked a bad time to have the worst offensive season of his career as the 27-year-old registered just five goals and 12 assists while being traded twice during the season and three times in the last 18 months. The former first-round pick looked as though he’d developed into a reliable secondary scorer in the middle six, but his numbers fell off a cliff last season. Beauvillier is a good shooter, brings good energy, and isn’t afraid to get dirty, he’ll find an NHL job next season, but he will be looking at a significant pay cut from the $4.15MM he made last season.

D Tyson Barrie – Barrie was a consistent healthy scratch last season in Nashville and voiced his displeasure at one point. He could be a good option for a team looking for some offense from the backend without a massive financial commitment. Barrie remains a good power play producer, and isn’t the worst defender in his own zone, although he does struggle to contain his opponents if he loses position. Barrie is just one year removed from posting 55 points in 85 games and will likely receive a one-year NHL contract for next season with the hopes that he bounces back to form.

D Alexandre Carrier – Carrier will be an interesting player to watch in free agency as he doesn’t have a long NHL track record, but he has been effective and could be a good second-pairing defenseman for a team. He is quick, has good gap control, and can keep plays alive in the offensive zone with smart pinches, and strong side-to-side work on the blue line. He isn’t afraid to push back in the defensive zone and doesn’t get overpowered by opposing forwards. The 27-year-old made $2.5MM last season on a one-year deal and is due a healthy raise on a multi-year deal.

G Kevin Lankinen – Lankinen is capable of playing like a starting goaltender in short stretches but lacks the consistency of a full-time NHL starter. He has good size but doesn’t play big and has a pretty average skill set. His 4.1 goals saved above expected (as per Money Puck) was pretty solid work in 24 games, although it represented a drop off from the 8.6 goals saved above expected he posted in 2022-23. With Predators star prospect Yaroslav Askarov ready to make the jump to the NHL, it looks as though Lankinen will be looking for a new NHL home. Given the weak goalie market, the 29-year-old should be able to find a multi-year deal with an AAV in the range of $2MM to $2.5MM.

F Jason Zucker – Zucker was in a very different position last summer when he signed a one-year deal worth $5.3MM. Zucker was coming off a 27-goal season and had been healthy for the first time in a while. A multi-year deal never materialized for the 32-year-old, and he opted to bet on himself with the shorter term. Unfortunately, the bet didn’t pay off as Zucker struggled to 14 goals and 18 assists in 69 games and was traded to Nashville at the deadline for a sixth-round pick. Zucker can still skate and isn’t afraid to get physical, he will fetch a multi-year deal, but it will likely come in under $4MM annually.

Other UFAs: G Troy Grosenick. D Jordan Gross, D Roland McKeown, F Kiefer Sherwood, C Jasper Weatherby

Projected Cap Space

The Predators have almost $12MM of dead cap space to contend with due to buyouts and retained salary. Despite this albatross on the books, the Predators still have plenty of room under the salary cap to shape their roster this summer. Nashville has nearly $26.4MM in space to make improvements and re-sign any pending free agents. The Predators are well-positioned to make a splash this summer and might opt to bolster their offense on the trade market. The team could also pursue top players in free agency as they aren’t limited by short-term cap issues. The Predators will need to find a direction with star netminder Juuse Saros and might need to tread lightly when handing out long-term deals if they want to have cap space to re-sign Saros long-term.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Vegas Golden Knights

June 12, 2024 at 8:30 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

The offseason has arrived for all but the two teams who are still taking part in the playoffs. For the rest, it’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at Vegas.

To say the Golden Knights took a big swing at the trade deadline would be an understatement. However, it didn’t result in the immediate success they were hoping for; while they snuck into the playoffs and gave Dallas a real run for their money, they were eliminated in the first round. Now, GM Kelly McCrimmon will look at making some tweaks while trying to keep as much of the core intact as possible. Here’s what they will likely be looking to try to do this summer.

Create Cap Space

Before Vegas can do anything when it comes to adding to its roster or even trying to re-sign some pending free agents, they need to get some cap flexibility. As things stand, they have barely $1MM in regular cap space, per CapFriendly. Only one team (Philadelphia) has less. Granted, Robin Lehner and his $5MM price tag is quite certain to remain on LTIR but unless the Golden Knights can make the perfect LTI placement in the fall, they probably won’t be able to utilize all of that amount. They can get close but few teams are able to use it all.

Even if we suppose they get the perfect placement, that gives them a little over $6MM to work with. That’s not much to work with when you’re hoping to re-sign some of Jonathan Marchessault, Chandler Stephenson, Michael Amadio, William Carrier, and Anthony Mantha up front.

Assuming they have designs on retaining several of those players, they’re going to have to free up some money. It’s also reasonable to suggest they don’t want to move their higher-paid core pieces which limits their options. On the back end, Zach Whitecloud feels like a possible trade candidate. He was a regular for most of the year but spent time as a healthy scratch after Noah Hanifin was acquired. For someone who is more of a third-pairing option, a $2.75MM price tag might be too much of a luxury for them to afford. Replacing him with a cheaper player would open up a little more spending room.

Meanwhile, up front, Nicolas Roy would be a popular trade target for teams if Vegas elected to try to fill his spot with a lower-cost center as three years at $3MM per season is affordable for most…just not necessarily the Golden Knights. A smaller move would be to move the final year and $1.9MM of Brett Howden’s contract, replacing him with someone making closer to half of that. The trade return probably wouldn’t be the strongest but if that helped add enough extra space to re-sign a more prominent piece, it’d be worth doing.

McCrimmon won’t be able to open up enough cap space to keep everyone but he knew that before acquiring and extending Hanifin while adding Tomas Hertl and his long-term deal. But if they can keep one of their top options and perhaps one of their bottom-six free agents, that would still be a good outcome for them.

Try To Re-Sign Marchessault

The most prominent of those pending unrestricted free agents is Marchessault. One of the few remaining original members of the Golden Knights, the 33-year-old followed up winning the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP in 2023 by posting a career-high 42 goals in 2023-24. Not a bad platform heading into free agency, that’s for sure.

Both sides have openly discussed a willingness to get a new deal done although talks were late getting started; it’s believed discussions only got underway in recent days. Part of the hold-up could simply have been Vegas needing to get a better handle on what they have (or won’t have) to spend come July 1st before engaging but it still seems a little odd they waited this long.

Nonetheless, Marchessault is well-positioned for a nice raise on a multi-year agreement. After making $5MM in each of the last six seasons, he could conceivably push for $7MM while getting three or four years if he makes it to the open market. It’s possible that he could leave some money on the table to stay with the Golden Knights who likely can’t afford that type of contract given their salary structure but with this likely being his last big contract, that can’t automatically be assumed either.

Regardless of what happens, Marchessault’s later-career breakout has him on the upswing heading into free agency which will have him rated highly on our Top 50 UFA list to be released later this month.

Extension Talks

While McCrimmon will have some pressing matters to attend to when it comes to his group of pending unrestricted free agents, he’ll likely be looking ahead to 2025-26 as well. A little over a year from now, three important players will be eligible to test the open market, making them eligible for contract extensions as of July 1st.

Shea Theodore is another one of the few remaining original members of the franchise and, when healthy, has been a key cog on their back end for the past seven seasons, logging over 20 minutes per game in each of them. However, he has missed 62 games over the past two years which won’t help his cause when those talks begin. Having said that, the 28-year-old will be viewed by numerous teams as a top-pairing player and the market for those players is quite significant. At a minimum, it’s well above the $5.2MM AAV of his existing contract. Alex Pietrangelo ($8.8MM) and Hanifin ($7.35MM) are on pricey contracts and Theodore should end up in that range whether it’s this summer or next.

Then there are the goaltenders. Adin Hill went from being a depth addition between the pipes when he was first acquired to a player who was dominant in their run to the Stanley Cup in 2023. That helped earn him what amounted to a second bridge deal, albeit with a sizable raise this time around. That contract, one that carries a $4.9MM AAV, is set to expire next year and it will be interesting to see if he can beat that next time out. Hill set a career-high in appearances in 2023-24 but still only played in 35 regular season games. If he doesn’t see a number one workload, it will be difficult to justify giving him any sort of considerable raise. That makes his situation a tough one to work through in terms of finding a number that works now for both sides.

That isn’t necessarily the case for Logan Thompson, however. The 27-year-old has led Vegas in goalie games in his two full NHL campaigns and was the starter going into the playoffs. If that holds true next season, that will be three seasons of at least closer to a starting workload which will help his case if he gets to the open market. At this point in time, a contract for him likely starts above Hill’s current price tag and one thing is for sure, with the way their team is constructed, they won’t be able to keep both in the fold beyond next season.

Whether it’s Hill or Thompson, if they can determine which one to keep and get that deal worked out in the next couple of months, it’ll be one big item off of next year’s list.

Mine The Margins

Vegas has gotten quite accustomed to not being able to afford to carry a full-sized 23-man roster and next year should be no exception. However, there are a couple of spots on the big club that could be up for grabs depending on what happens with their pending free agents that they may want to turn to the open market for.

However, they won’t be able to get involved in any sort of bidding war. Instead, they’ll almost certainly be limited to offering minimum-salary deals ($775K) due to their cap situation. Those contracts aren’t often signed on the opening day of free agency. However, there are often bargains to be found with some patience so they may have to wait for the secondary free agent market to open up closer to training camp before filling those spots.

It would also be wise for them to get some NHL-capable pieces to be stashed at AHL Henderson. The upside isn’t typically too high for two-way free agents but getting some players who have shown they can handle limited roles can’t hurt for when injuries arise. These are the types of deals they can get aggressive on early as they’re likely to carry a $775K NHL cap charge with the only differences in offers from other teams being the minor league portion. Landing some of the better players on that side of the market could prove fruitful as the year goes on but they’ll have to work through what’s set to be a very large list of players to find the best fits.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: Toronto Maple Leafs

June 12, 2024 at 9:54 am CDT | by Josh Erickson 5 Comments

An offseason of low-risk, short-term signings for new general manager Brad Treliving paid some dividends for Toronto. Unfortunately, a lack of impact adds at the trade deadline and injuries to star forwards Auston Matthews and William Nylander contributed to yet another first-round playoff loss to the Bruins. Now, a sharp increase in the salary cap is coming at the best possible time for the Leafs, who have a significant amount of roster and spending flexibility available for the first time in a while. It’s up to Treliving to not waste it.

Defense, Defense, Defense

Did we say defense? The Leafs only have three everyday defenders signed next season. Two of them, Simon Benoit and Jake McCabe, had competent showings in shutdown roles last season (especially the latter) but struggled to move the puck up the ice. The other, longtime fixture Morgan Rielly, remains a high-end offensive blue liner but has documented defensive weaknesses that make it increasingly difficult to justify playing him nearly 24 minutes per game.

Nearly all of their pending UFAs on defense, namely T.J. Brodie, aren’t expected to back. Their lone restricted free agent, Timothy Liljegren, is far from a sure bet either, and his signing rights could be used as trade bait this summer.

That leaves plenty of money and roster space for turnover, especially on the right side. All of Benoit, McCabe and Rielly are lefties, although McCabe is comfortable playing his off-side. In any event, Treliving is looking for at least two marquee right-shot blue liners on the open market that can comfortably shoulder top-four minutes.

Two options the Leafs have already been connected to as July 1 draws closer are Brett Pesce and Sean Walker. Both have historically been positive possession forces. While Pesce is coming off a down year offensively, the longtime Hurricane has a solid history of tossing up 20-plus assists per season. Walker was an absolute monster at getting the puck on net this year, though, managing 150 shots on goal (32nd among NHL defenders) despite averaging fewer than 20 minutes per game. Both are logical fits and upgrades over the rotating cast of Brodie, Joel Edmundson, Mark Giordano and Ilya Lyubushkin that was utilized down the stretch and in the postseason.

The Marner Conundrum

Despite producing over a point per game in six straight seasons, Marner immediately found himself in trade speculation after being limited to just one goal and two assists in seven playoff games. Like Matthews and Nylander, Marner likely wasn’t playing at 100 percent after sustaining a high ankle sprain in a regular-season game against the Bruins weeks earlier. But he’s entering the final season of his contract, is headed toward unrestricted free agency, and there’s little appetite to work on an extension on July 1 with another playoff disappointment fresh on everyone’s minds.

Reporting indicates the Leafs haven’t directly approached Marner about waiving his no-move clause, and the 27-year-old has made it clear he wants to stay in his hometown. They likely won’t do so until receiving a serious trade offer, and the likelihood of one of those coming through correlates directly with how aggressively Treliving shops him this summer, if at all.

The question for a Maple Leafs team in win-now mode is simple. Is the potential value of reallocating Marner’s $10.9MM cap hit next season greater than what he’ll give you on the ice? What he is is a consistent 100-point threat (if healthy) who averages over 21 minutes per game and finds himself consistently earning outside Selke Trophy consideration. Playoff disappointment aside, he’s a superstar.

It’s a tough question to answer, but one Treliving and his staff need to in short order.

Complement Woll

Perhaps the greatest certainty about the Leafs’ summer is that Ilya Samsonov will find a new home in unrestricted free agency. That leaves the up-and-coming Joseph Woll as the sole keeper of the crease for now, but they’ll need to find a solid complementary piece to give them better overall goaltending than last season’s roller-coaster ride.

Shelling out for a high-priced starter will be a controversial decision. Woll is still only 25, had a solid regular season and was excellent in brief playoff action this year before getting injured (.964 SV%, 0.86 GAA). He should likely be trusted for around 40 starts – which means the assets needed to acquire a Jacob Markström or Juuse Saros could wisely be repurposed elsewhere.

Unfortunately, the list of established true tandem options is incredibly small. They’ve been connected to Laurent Brossoit, who’s headed to UFA status next month. He’s had great numbers over the past two seasons, logging a .927 SV% through stops in Vegas and Winnipeg, but has never started more than 22 games in a season. He’s an upgrade on Samsonov over smaller stints, but questions will remain about how well he can handle an extended workload.

Find Cost-Effective Forward Depth

The Leafs had no problem putting the puck in the net last year, at least in the regular season. Their 303 goals were second in the league, influenced by a combined 109 snipes from Matthews and Nylander. But as it stands, no player projected in their bottom six next season had more than 0.5 points per game last year, a difficult stat to acquiesce for a team with championship aspirations.

One thing that would be a major boost is pushing shutdown pivot David Kämpf squarely into a fourth-line role. It’s not the most attractive option for a player with a $2.4MM cap hit, but averaging north of 13 minutes per game isn’t feasible for a player who provides as little offense as he does. He’s certainly a capable fourth-line defensive center on a Cup winner, but right now, they’re asking too much. Thus, at least one middle-six option is needed to help create a domino effect and spread out some scoring depth, plus a few more if they do indeed move on from Marner.

A spot can hopefully be filled by either Easton Cowan or Fraser Minten, their two top forward prospects, the former of whom is coming off an electric OHL postseason performance that earned him playoff MVP honors. After 96 points in 54 regular-season games and 34 points in 18 playoff games, Cowan is a solid bet for at least a nine-game trial out of the gate, but they need insurance options in the semi-likely event neither is ready to be an everyday top-nine force.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports.