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Vladimir Sobotka

2018-19 Season Primer: St. Louis Blues

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With the NHL season now just a month away, it’s time to look at what each team has done this summer and what to watch for in the year to come. Today, we focus on the St. Louis Blues.

Last Season: 44-32-6 record (94 points), fifth in the Central Division (failed to reach the playoffs)

Remaining Cap Space: $284,845 per CapFriendly

Key Additions: F Ryan O’Reilly (trade, Buffalo Sabres); F Tyler Bozak (free agent, Toronto Maple Leafs); F David Perron (free agent, Vegas Golden Knights); F Patrick Maroon (free agent, New Jersey Devils); G Chad Johnson (free agent, Buffalo Sabres); F Brian Flynn (free agent, Dallas Stars); D Tyler Wotherspoon (free agent, Calgary Flames); F Jordan Nolan (free agent, Buffalo Sabres)

Key Departures: F Kyle Brodziak (free agent, Edmonton Oilers); G Carter Hutton (free agent, Buffalo Sabres); F Patrik Berglund (trade, Buffalo Sabres); F Vladimir Sobotka (trade, Buffalo Sabres); F Tage Thompson (trade, Buffalo Sabres); F Wade Megan (free agent, Detroit Red Wings); F Beau Bennett (free agent, Dinamo Minsk (KHL)); Petteri Lindbohm (free agent, Laussane (Swiss League))

[Related: Blues Depth Chart From Roster Resource]

Player To Watch: G Jake Allen — The team has upgraded its offense, already had a solid defense and has several of their top prospects banging on its door, hoping to get into their rotation this year. What they didn’t do much with is their goaltending. Allen, once considered the franchise goalie, has now struggled for more than a full season, but with three years at $4.35MM per season still on the books, he’s not going anywhere this year.

The 28-year-old netminder struggled down the stretch during the 2016-17 season, but his consistency got even worse last year when he posted a .906 save percentage and a 2.75 GAA in 59 games. The team was forced to use Hutton on many occasions to replace the struggling goaltender. In hopes of redeeming his job, Allen has said that he has changed some of his training methods this summer and hopes to come into camp and prove that he is the starting goaltender.

The team had better hope that he can, because the team lost Hutton to the Buffalo Sabres in the offseason and replaced him with Johnson, who struggled in a one-year stint in Buffalo, albeit behind an atrocious defense. The team does have prospect Ville Husso waiting in the AHL, but many believe he still needs at least one year of seasoning there before he can challenge Allen for his job.

Key Storyline: The offense has been thoroughly upgraded in the last few months and it will be up to the team to find a way to gel and make it work. One key story will be whether they can get the breakout performance that everyone in the NHL has been waiting for from Vladimir Tarasenko. The winger posted three impressive seasons coming into last year, including a 37, 40, 39-goal seasons. However, while the 26-year-old still had a solid season last year, his 33 goals was a disappointment for a player who many felt was closer to a 40-goal scorer than a 30-point scorer.

One possibility to Tarasenko’s season could come down to the addition of O’Reilly. Adding a top-line center will be critical and if the two can co-exist, then you might see the development of a superstar as Tarasenko and Paul Stastny had limited chemistry together. There is also a likelihood that Maroon, who played together with Connor McDavid in Edmonton for a while, could add his physicality to that first line and give Tarasenko an even better chance to have a big season.

Overall Outlook: Looking at the massive changes to the team, especially at the forward position means the team expects to win now. The franchise has put a lot of expectations on head coach Mike Yeo and the team as they are expected to not just make the playoffs, but compete for the Central Division title. That’s a tough chore for any Central Division team if you assume that the Nashville Predators and Winnipeg Jets will likely assume the first two spots in the division. That leaves just two playoffs spots for the rest of the division that includes the Minnesota Wild, who have been to the playoffs for six straight years, an improving Dallas Stars team, a young impressive Colorado Avalanche franchise and the Chicago Blackhawks who are trying to prove that their run isn’t over just yet. If the team fails to impress early on, that could put Yeo on the hot seat.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Buffalo Sabres Sign Nicholas Baptiste To One-Year Deal

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7/15: The team has officially announced the signing. Baptiste will carry a $787.5K cap hit at the NHL level and will be paid $70K in the minor leagues.

7/14: The Buffalo Sabres have signed restricted free agent Nicholas Baptiste to a one-year, two-way contract, according to TVA’s Renaud Lavoie. The 22-year-old winger will make $788K next season.

Baptiste has developed nicely in the Sabres’ system as he scored 25 goals with the Rochester Americans of the AHL in the 2016-17 season and followed that up by splitting time between Rochester and Buffalo this year. With injuries hampering the Sabres’ squad, Baptiste was able to get into 33 games this past season, putting up four goals and six points in limited time. Playing in a bottom-six role, he averaged just 9:58 of ATOI.

At 6-foot-1, 205 pounds, the forward has both the size and speed to be a solid player, but has struggled to put it all together at the NHL level as he has received some time at the top-six. The team may be looking at Baptiste as either a trade chip or more of a permanent bottom-six rotation player, but he will get one more year to prove that he can take that next step in Buffalo. That might be more challenging with the Sabres’ adding more talent this season, including some veterans like Patrik Berglund and Vladimir Sobotka, which could force Baptiste back to Buffalo.

Western Notes: Pettersson, Fabbri, Blues, Skinner

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The Vancouver Canucks top prospect Elias Pettersson received a gold medal today at the IIHF World Championships. While the 19-year-old center did not  play after fracturing his thumb last week in a game against finals opponent Switzerland, there is also no word on whether he intends to sign his entry-level deal with the Canucks either, according to Sportsnet’s Rick Dhaliwal.

Dhaliwal said he believes that Pettersson has yet to make up his mind about whether he wants to sign with Vancouver or stay another year in the SHL and play another year for Vaxjo. There is no timetable when the 2017 fifth-overall pick will make his decision.

  • In a mailbag edition, St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Jeff Gordon writes that the best option for both the St. Louis Blues and restricted free agent Robby Fabbri is a one-year deal. Fabbri who hasn’t played a game since Feb. 4, 2017, is recovering from a torn ACL injury and had to undergo surgery a second time in training camp this year when he reinjured the same knee. Gordon writes with his value at an all-time low, as many players have trouble coming back from double surgery to the same knee, so both teams would want a one-year deal, including Fabbri who would want to prove to everyone he’s healthy if he wants to cash in on a lucrative contract.
  • Sticking with the Blues, The Athletic’s Jeremy Rutherford (subscription required) writes that the St. Louis Blues continue to shop some of worst contracts in hopes of clearing some cap space, including Patrik Berglund, Vladimir Sobotka and goaltender Jake Allen, although it’s unlikely they would be able to move any of those contracts. The 29-year-old Berglund has a $3.85MM AAV deal for another four years. Sobotka has two more years at $3.5MM AAV, while Allen has three more years at $4.35MM.
  • The Athletic’s Allan Mitchell (subscription required) evaluates the play of Edmonton Oilers goaltending prospect Stuart Skinner, who has been a solid prospect, but had a really good stretch after he was traded to the WHL’s Swift Current Broncos. The 2017 third-rounder posted a .932 postseason save percentage in 26 games, leading Swift Current to the WHL title. Is he the goalie of the future for the Oilers? Mitchell compares the prospect to other top goaltending prospects, but still admits its too early to know how good he could be. Regardless, the Oilers have something to look forward to in the future.

 

West Notes: Wild GM Search, Lyubushkin, Sobotka

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The Wild have narrowed their search for a new general manager down to three candidates, reports Sarah McLellan of the Star-Tribune.  Paul Fenton (Nashville), Tom Fitzgerald (New Jersey), and Bill Zito (Columbus) are believed to be the ones still in the hunt for the job which takes John Ferguson Jr. and Dave Nonis, who had previously interviewed for the position, out of contention.  With Toronto promoting Kyle Dubas to their GM position on Friday, Minnesota is now the only team without one.  However, it appears that this won’t be the case for much longer as McLellan adds that the new GM should be in place by the end of the month.

More from the West:

  • While there was a report several weeks ago that the Coyotes had agreed to terms with Russian defenseman Ilya Lyubushkin, Craig Morgan of Arizona Sports reports that while the team has interest in him, no contract has been agreed upon just yet. The 24-year-old stay-at-home defender has been with Yaroslavl of the KHL since 2013-14 and would be subject to entry-level restrictions.  Morgan adds that Lyubushkin is still under contract in Russia which is something that could be delaying getting a deal officially done.
  • If the Blues wind up dealing one of their centers this summer, Jeff Gordon of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch suggests that Vladimir Sobotka is the one with the best chance of being moved. The 30-year-old has two years left on his contract at $3.5MM per season and is coming off someone of a quiet year with 31 points (11-20-31) in 81 games.  While moving Patrik Berglund ($3.85MM per year through 2021-22) would free up more long-term cap room, he was the more productive of the two and also has a modified no-trade clause while Sobotka does not have any trade protection in his contract.

Early Notes: Columbus, Hartman, Vermette

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The Columbus Blue Jackets added Mark Letestu yesterday for their playoff run, but had checked in on several other options before making the deal. Mark Lazerus of the Chicago Sun-Times reports that the Blue Jackets offered a third-round pick for Artem Anisimov, hoping the Blackhawks would also retain some salary.

Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet also believes that the Blue Jackets asked about Patrik Berglund and Vladimir Sobotka of the St. Louis Blues, but obviously didn’t make a deal. Letestu ended up only costing Columbus a fourth-round pick, which certainly doesn’t take them out of the running today for an additional upgrade.

  • Scott Powers of The Athletic reports that the Chicago Blackhawks are looking for a first-round pick plus another asset for Ryan Hartman, a big ask for a young player with just eight goals this season. Hartman, 23, is a versatile player that could draw interest from many teams, and is a restricted free agent this summer. That could be part of why the Blackhawks are considering moving the forward, as like most years they’ll have some tough decisions to make on their young free agents due to their ongoing cap crunch.
  • Antoine Vermette was held out of the lineup last night for the Anaheim Ducks, and John Shannon of Sportsnet reports on his eight-team approved trade list. Shannon explains that only two of those teams are currently in playoff spots, which could drastically limit any return should the Ducks decide to move him. Vermette is affordable and playoff-tested, but ultimately holds a lot of power in deciding whether he’ll be traded today.

Central Notes: Sobotka, Stars, Avalanche, Jets

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After being widely expected to be buyers in advance of the trade deadline, a six-game losing streak may have the Blues changing course.  Sportsnet’s John Shannon reports (Twitter link) that St. Louis has started to make some of their players available.  In particular, forward Vladimir Sobotka is now believed to be available although the asking price is high.  The 30-year-old has had a fairly quiet season offensively with 24 points (9-15-24) through 61 games and while he was a high-end faceoff specialist in his first NHL stint, he has primarily played on the wing since rejoining St. Louis late last season.  Sobotka has two years remaining on his contract after this one with a $3.5MM cap hit and if there is a team that thinks he can return to his original position, he should be able to garner some interest.

Elsewhere in the Central:

  • Although the Stars have the ability to take on roughly $4MM in a full-season cap hit (per CapFriendly), GM Jim Nill told Mike Heika of the Dallas Morning News that they would like to only spend about $2.5MM of that in order to preserve some flexibility for any late-season recalls in case injuries strike. Heika suggests that Dallas is okay with their center situation despite the frequent injuries to Martin Hanzal but that Nill would like to add some scoring help up front.
  • One team that is unlikely to be active on Monday is the Avalanche. GM Joe Sakic told Mike Chambers of the Denver Post that they intend to stick to their plan and stay the course.  In particular, he noted that they will not be trading draft picks or prospects nor will they be looking to add any pending unrestricted free agents to their roster.
  • The Jets had a pair of scouts watching the Blackhawks on Friday, notes Postmedia’s Ken Wiebe. The scribe suggests that Winnipeg is looking to add a top-nine forward and some depth on the back end and that Chicago’s Ryan Hartman and Jan Rutta could have been the players being watched.  He also believes Blackhawks center Artem Anisimov could be on their radar after failing to land both Derick Brassard and Tomas Plekanec.

Blues, Senators Discussing Derick Brassard And Mike Hoffman

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The Blues and Senators are discussing trade scenarios involving winger Mike Hoffman and center Derick Brassard, Blues beat writer Lou Korac reports on his personal blog.  He adds that the talks would see St. Louis acquire one or the other and not both players.

Among the players that Ottawa is believed to be interested in is winger Robby Fabbri, who has yet to play this season due to his second torn ACL.  Korac notes that the Sens have asked for permission to view Fabbri’s medical records.  The 22-year-old will become a restricted free agent for the first time this summer but will not have arbitration eligibility.

A pair of St. Louis centers are also on Ottawa’s radar as well as the scribe links Vladimir Sobotka and Patrik Berglund as part of the trade discussions.  Sobotka has two years left on his contract after this one with a $3.5MM cap hit although his deal was slightly front-loaded in terms of salary.  Berglund, meanwhile, has four years remaining at a $3.85MM cap charge; his contract is also front-loaded salary wise.  The 29-year-old Swede also has a full no-move clause in 2017-18.

Both Brassard and Hoffman would have the potential to be impact players with the Blues.  Brassard would give them another top-six option down the middle and give them a boost on the second line.  He would also serve as insurance if Paul Stastny, a pending unrestricted free agent, leaves the team in the summer.  He has one year left on his contract after this one with a $5MM cap hit but just a $3.5MM salary.

Hoffman has been linked to St. Louis in recent weeks and he would certainly give their attack a boost.  His 16 goals this season would rank fourth on the Blues in scoring while his 39 points would slot in fifth.  The 28-year-old has two years remaining on his deal with a cap hit just shy of $5.2MM and has a ten-team no-trade clause in his contract.

The salary cap will undoubtedly be a factor in any talks between the two teams as St. Louis has very limited space to work with this season.  They have the ability to add another $1.8MM in a full-season cap hit per CapFriendly but that includes Fabbri’s LTIR provision.  As a result, the finances will need to be pretty close for a trade to work here.

Jaden Schwartz Out Six Weeks

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The context behind the St. Louis Blues’ call-up of Ivan Barbashev is now clear. The Blues have announced that Jaden Schwartz suffered a right ankle injury in yesterday’s game against the Detroit Red Wings. He will be re-evaluated in six weeks, during which time the team will have to lean on Barbashev or another AHL forward as his replacement.

This is a devastating blow for the red-hot Blues. Schwartz has struggled with injuries in the past but has always produced at a high level when healthy. Schwartz has 35 points in 30 games and an incredible +23 rating. Schwartz is currently second on the team in points, goals, and plus/minus behind only linemate Brayden Schenn and tied with Schenn for assists. His impact on special teams can also not be understated.

Schwartz’s absence will be quite the test for St. Louis. While they were fortunate to get Patrik Berglund back from injury before Schwartz went down and have also seen surprising production from the likes of Vladimir Sobotka, Scottie Upshall, and Dmitrij Jaskin, it will still be very difficult to make up for the loss of Schwartz for the next month and a half. Barbashev, the presumptive replacement for Schwartz as a top nine forward, had been held scoreless so far in the NHL this season and Wade Megan and Tage Thompson had the same luck in their short stints. One of those three young forwards needs to step up or else the Blues could see their lead in the Central slip away in no time, with the Nashville Predators and Winnipeg Jets right on their tail.

Blues Notes: Steen, Dunn, Thompson, Stastny

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Don’t be shocked if the St. Louis Blues put Alex Steen immediately onto the top line the moment he is healthy, which could be soon, according to The Athletic’s Jeremy Rutherford. Taking mailbag questions, the scribe writes that while most people, including himself, believed that Steen would come back to the team’s second line, the recent promotion of Samuel Blais might change things. The team believes that Blais might take off on the team’s second line. The 21-year-old prospect had a great preseason and started hot with the AHL’s San Antonio Rampage with three goals in two games. Rutherford believes that if Blais mixes in well with the second line, then the more likely option for Steen would be to move him to the first line with Vladimir Tarasenko and Paul Stastny. That would force Vladimir Sobotka to move down from the first line to the team’s third line, where the team has really struggled so far this year.

Steen, who scored 16 goals and 51 points a season ago broke his hand on Sept. 19 and is believed to be travelling with the team and close to returning to game action soon.

Other notes from Rutherford:

  • The scribe writes that when defenseman Jay Bouwmeester returns, the team may be in for a tough decision. Bouwmeester, who is recovering from a fractured ankle, could come back within the next week or two, will force the team to cut a defenseman. While Rutherford writes that rookie blueliner Vince Dunn has been impressive through five games, including scoring his first goal and putting up five shots in his last game and looking solid on defense. However, it is likely the team will send Dunn down rather than bench defenseman Carl Gunnarsson when Bouwmeester returns.
  • Rutherford adds that former 2016 first-rounder Tage Thompson’s demotion is probably a good thing. He writes that Thompson is being groomed to be a top-six forward, not a bottom-six forward, so his development is critical and more time in San Antonio makes more sense. The 19-year-old center, who was playing hockey for the University of Connecticut a year ago, has only 26 games of AHL experience (playoffs included). Despite being a big player, Rutherford writes he got pushed around quite a bit, which often happens to young, inexperienced players.
  • The scribe also writes that he believes that this could very likely be Stastny’s last year in St. Louis, unless the 31-year-old center is willing to take a pay cut to remain with the team. Stastny, who is in the final year of a four-year, $28MM deal, is currently making $7MM this season. Rutherford believes that while the team will likely keep their options open, the Blues will likely look at the free agent market first before deciding whether to re-sign Stastny. Stastny’s numbers have progressively been dropping over the last few years, with last year’s 40-point season being one of the lowest of his career. He is faring well so far with two goals and four assists in five games.

 

Salary Cap Deep Dive: St. Louis Blues

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Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2017-18 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

St. Louis Blues

Current Cap Hit: $72,569,167 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Robby Fabbri (One year remaining, $894K)
F Zachary Sanford (Two years remaining, $875K)
F Ivan Barbashev (Two years remaining, $742K)

Potential Bonuses

Fabbri: $425K
Barbashev: $183K
Sanford: $50K

Total: $658K

Much of the attention of the youth will fall on Fabbri, who many are hoping will have a breakout season this year. The former 2014 first-round pick has already played two full seasons with the club and combined for 29 goals, but many people feel this might be the year where he takes that next step. He looked to be having a solid year last year, but tore his ACL in February and missed the rest of the season. Now healthy, many believe the Blues will move him to center to take control of a top line.

Sanford and Barbashev are two youngsters who many feel may also take on regular roles in St. Louis this year. Sanford, a second-round pick in 2013 by the Washington Capitals, came to St. Louis in the Kevin Shattenkirk trade at the trade deadline last season. The 22-year-old joined the Blues for the final 13 games and scored two goals and five assists and many believe he should make a solid fourth-line center as he develops his game. Barbashev is a second-round pick from the 2014 draft and got a promotion for the season’s final 30 games. The 21-year-old picked up five goals and seven assists and showed that he deserves a chance to start, but may have to settle for a wing position to start the year.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Paul Stastny ($7MM, UFA)
G Carter Hutton ($1.125MM, UFA)
D Joel Edmundson ($1.05MM, RFA)
F Dmitrij Jaskin ($1MM, RFA)
F Kyle Brodziak ($950K, UFA)
F Magnus Paajarvi ($800K, UFA)
F Oskar Sundqvist ($675K, RFA)
F Beau Bennett ($650K, RFA)

Obviously the team has to make a decision on what it plans to do with Stastny as he’s the biggest name amongst the team’s pending free agents next season. Stastny has been a solid contributor at center, but hardly spectacular and is probably not worth the $7MM AAV that he has received from St. Louis when they signed him in 2014. Injuries have played a major role for the 31-year-old veteran as he has missed 42 games in three seasons. On top of that, he only took 112 shots, one of the lowest of his career and his 22 assists last year is his career low, not including the strike-shortened 2012-13 season. The team has put some effort into developing some of their youngsters at the center position, including Fabbri, Barbashev and Sanford likely in hopes of eventually finding a replacement for Stastny in the near future.

After Stastny, the talent level drops, but the team will have several restricted free agents who will be in line for more money next year. Edmundson, entering his third full year in the league, who has struggled with injuries in his two years. He played in 67 games in 2015-16 and just 69 games last year. He put up three goals and 12 assists last year, but should get more playing time with Shattenkirk gone and if he can stay healthy, should put up even better numbers. Sundqvist also came to St. Louis in a recent trade. Acquired from Pittsburgh in the Ryan Reaves trade, Sundqvist hopes to break camp with the Blues. He couldn’t crack the lineup in Pittsburgh, managing just 28 games over the past two years, but he did score 20 goals for the Penguins’ AHL squad this year. The center has a good chance to win a bottom six center position this year.

Jaskin has had trouble staying in the lineup for the Blues. The 24-year-old has been with the team now for four seasons, but has never been able to a steady contributor. He only managed to get into 51 games last year, for one goal and 10 assists. If he can’t put together a solid season, it may be his last in St. Louis. Bennett, who was signed as a free agent this summer, must prove he can make the team first. The 25-year-old wing scored eight goals in 65 games for the New Jersey Devils last year.

Among unrestricted free agents, the team may want to bring back Hutton, who has served the Blues well as their backup goaltender. The 31-year-old played 29 games and finished the year with a 2.39 GAA and a .913 save percentage. The 33-year-old Brodziak makes for a good fourth-line player, but this could likely be his last year in St. Louis, while Paajarvi split time between the Blues and the Chicago Wolves and also could be at the end of the line if he can’t make the team out of training camp.

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