Headlines

Go To MLB Trade Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

PHR Playoff Primer: Dallas Stars vs. Minnesota Wild

at CDT | by 3 Comments

With the start of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs just a few days away, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? We continue our look with the Central Division matchup between the Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild.

For the second time in their history, these two franchises linked at the hip will face each other in a first-round matchup. After losing in six games to the Stars in 2016, the shorthanded Wild are once again tasked with attempting to knock out the team that preceded them in the hockey capital of the United States.

Dallas has enjoyed their first 100-point season since defeating the Wild in 2016, while the Wild maintained their grip on a divisional playoff spot despite the absence of Kirill Kaprizov for much of the season’s last few weeks. Now likely without another important piece in Joel Eriksson Ek to start the series, though, Minnesota will need to continue their next-player-up mentality to avoid their seventh straight first-round loss.

Regular Season Performance

Dallas: 47-21-14, 108 points, +67 goal differential
Minnesota: 46-25-11, 103 points, +21 goal differential

Head-To-Head

December 4, 2022: Minnesota 6, Dallas 5 (SO)
December 29, 2022: Dallas 4, Minnesota 1
February 8, 2023: Minnesota 1, Dallas 4
February 17, 2023: Dallas 1, Minnesota 2 (SO)

Season series tied 2-2

Team Storylines

These two teams present an interesting matchup for an unusual reason: each team’s two biggest strengths may just cancel each other out.

Jason Robertson’s season needs no introduction. Not only did his 109 points finish tied for sixth in the NHL, but they also blew past Mike Modano’s Dallas single-season record of 93, set back in 1993-94, the team’s first year in Texas.

Unfortunately, he’s matched up against Kaprizov, who nabbed the Calder Trophy away from Robertson in 2021. Despite missing 15 games, Kaprizov potted 40 goals for a second straight season and played over 21 minutes per game.

Where Dallas pulls away in this matchup, at least on offense, is their center depth, especially with Eriksson Ek’s injury concerns. While the Wild cornerstone center is progressing faster than anticipated in his return from a lower-body injury, Dallas’ lineup down the middle of Roope Hintz, Max Domi (or Tyler Seguin), rookie Wyatt Johnston, and potential Selke contender Radek Faksa could prove tough matchups for Minnesota’s lacking center core.

The x-factor in Eriksson Ek’s absence will undoubtedly be Ryan Hartman, who’s still a top-six player but not the 34-goal scorer we saw last season. After putting up five assists in six playoff games against St. Louis last season, they’ll need similar playoff production from him between Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello to round out their depth.

Both teams also boast some of the best young goalies in the league, but they carry different degrees of certainty. Dallas knows what they’re getting in the postseason with 24-year-old Jake Oettinger, who nearly had one of the most incredible series steals in NHL history against Calgary last year with a .954 save percentage in a seven-game loss.

For the Wild, Filip Gustavsson, also 24, finished near the top of NHL leaderboards with a .931 save percentage and 2.10 goals-against average, albeit with only 37 starts compared to Oettinger’s 61. That’s because the battle-tested Marc-Andre Fleury remains an option for Minnesota after recording a .906 save percentage and a 2-3 record in five games against St. Louis last season.

Both teams boast stingy defenses, although Dallas’ actual results this season overpower that of Minnesota’s reputation. That’s not to discredit how well the Wild limited chances against this season — however, Dallas finished second in the NHL in expected goals against, per MoneyPuck, behind only the Carolina Hurricanes. If Dallas can impose their system against an already somewhat goal-starved Wild team, it could be another early exit for Minnesota.

Prediction

The Minnesota Wild are a good hockey team with distinct strengths. However, the Stars don’t provide an advantageous stylistic matchup for Minnesota’s first series win in eight years.

Dallas has had a better season at both ends of the puck and boasts the goalie with stronger recent playoff experience and more stamina as a starter. None of this includes the track record of first-year head coach Peter DeBoer, notorious for making deep playoff runs in his first seasons with a team.

Both teams play structured games, though, and it shouldn’t be a quick out for the Wild by any means. Dallas has the necessary advantages to pull out a series win, though, as they look to return to the Stanley Cup Final for the second time in four years.

The prediction: Dallas wins in six games.

PHR Playoff Primer: Boston Bruins vs. Florida Panthers

at CDT | by 6 Comments

With the start of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs set to begin tomorrow, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? We continue our look with the Atlantic Division showdown between the Boston Bruins and Florida Panthers.

With each record that they set during their 65-win, 135-point regular season, the focus began to shift for the Boston Bruins. They’ve known they’d be making the playoffs since December, if not earlier. While other teams went to battle with the focus of securing a playoff spot, the Bruins were chasing records etched into the books by some of the NHL’s most historic teams. Now? The records have been set, their regular season is over, and they’re now in the same postseason boat as everybody else: zero wins, zero losses.

For this Boston team, making a deep run is considered the bare minimum. Anything less than a berth in the conference finals will feel like a disappointment, and it’s very likely that anything less than a Stanley Cup victory will leave fans in New England wanting more.

For the Florida Panthers, it was an uneven regular season that left them in the wholly undesirable position of being Boston’s first-round opponent. There are many who will expect these Panthers to serve as the Washington Generals to Boston’s Harlem Globetrotters, but just write them off in this series would be a mistake.

One must remember that it was just a few years ago that the Tampa Bay Lightning flirted with regular-season history, only to be swept in the first round of the playoffs against a hungry Blue Jackets team that just barely scraped their way into the playoffs. This is a scrappy Panthers team looking to move past the disappointment that defined their elimination in last year’s playoffs, led by new franchise face Matthew Tkachuk.

Will the Bruins take their first step toward a place in hockey history? Will their regular-season dominance extend to the postseason in a way it couldn’t for the 2018-19 Lightning? Or will we see another historic upset, perhaps even with reigning Calder Cup Champion Alex Lyon leading Florida to glory?

Regular Season Performance

Boston: 65-12-5, 135 points, +128 goal differential
Florida: 42-32-8, 92 points, +17 goal differential

Head-To-Head

October 17th, 2022: Boston 5, Florida 3
November 23rd, 2022: Florida 5, Boston 2
December 19th, 2022: Boston 7, Florida 3
January 28th, 2023: Florida 4, Boston 3

Series tied 2-2

Team Storylines

The Bruins are one of the NHL’s deepest, most talented teams, with a lineup full of top-end talent and valuable role players. You don’t set the NHL record for regular-season success without an elite lineup, after all. But the major question for the Bruins is something relatively out of their control: health.

They have experience, with a few players remaining from the team’s 2011 Stanley Cup victory and even more from the 2019 roster that just barely missed out on a championship. They have scoring talent, led by 61-goal, 113-point scorer David Pastrnak, defensive talent, and a goalie who posted an otherworldly .938 save percentage in the regular season.

But among those top players, there are some health-related question marks. We covered reports earlier today that Bruins captain Patrice Bergeron could miss the first game of the series, and Linus Ullmark has been dealing with an undisclosed injury in recent days, though he did practice yesterday with no restrictions.

This Bruins team is one that has 2019 Hart Trophy winner Taylor Hall listed as a third-liner, alongside Tyler Bertuzzi, who has scored 16 points in 21 games in Boston. They have a stable full of versatile, capable players who can handle any situation thrown at them. The major question, then, will be if those players can stay healthy, and if they can maintain the standard of play they set in the regular season in the more intense environment of the playoffs.

There are no roster-related question marks surrounding this Bruins team, as long as they stay healthy. The main storyline to watch for this series, from their perspective, will be availability and execution, and those are two factors that are impossible to fully evaluate before the puck is dropped tomorrow.

For Florida, the main storyline relates to their situation in their crease.

With the Panthers’ season on the line, the team turned to Lyon, an AHL netminder who won the Calder Cup with the Chicago Wolves last season.

He played extremely well, rattling off a six-game winning streak that revived Florida’s fading playoff dreams.

If the Panthers want to have any hope of pulling off the impossible and becoming the second underdog to stun a record-setting, 60-plus win team in the first round, they’ll need Lyon to play as he did during the winning streak.

They’ll also need their penalty kill to step up, as the Bruins powerplay, while inconsistent, is capable of scorching hot stretches. The Panthers’ penalty kill ranked 23rd in the NHL this season, killing 76% of opposing man advantages. The Bruins killed off 87.3%, the highest rate in the NHL by a decent margin.

While goaltending will be the main focus in this series, special teams could also be the battleground where Florida either finds a way to get ahead or ends up falling apart.

Prediction

The Panthers are a quality team whose stellar play in recent weeks rightfully earned them a spot in the playoffs. With players such as Tkachuk, and Aleksander Barkov, and an experienced coach like Paul Maurice, they’re not exactly the easiest team to bet against. The pressure the Bruins will be facing as such a successful regular-season team will be immense, and to discount how impactful that pressure could be would be a mistake.

That being said, how realistic is the possibility that these Bruins, who barely ever lose consecutive games, fall to a team potentially starting a goalie with under 40 games of NHL experience? How likely is it that the possible final act of Bergeron’s illustrious NHL career ends with a humiliating upset loss to a division rival?

The Blue Jackets proved a few years ago that anything can happen in the Stanley Cup playoffs. NHL-caliber players on any team, regardless of where they are in the standings, have it in them to find a way to win any game, regardless of the challenge posed by their opposition.

In the final game of their regular season, the basement-dwelling Montreal Canadiens held their own against and nearly beat the Bruins. But in a seven-game series? That’s a far taller task, and it seems as though the Boston will have more than enough to outlast even the fiercest of challenges from the Panthers.

The prediction: Bruins win in six games.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

PHR Playoff Primer: Carolina Hurricanes vs. New York Islanders

at CDT | by 2 Comments

With the start of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs just a few days away, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? We continue our look with the Metropolitan Division matchup between the Carolina Hurricanes and New York Islanders.

The opening game of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs will feature two teams on very different paths heading into the postseason. In this rematch of a 2019 Eastern Conference Second Round series, the Hurricanes and Islanders both have something to prove.

And, like that 2019 matchup which had just four total goals through its first two games, most would expect this series to be the most defensively inclined of the first round. With the Hurricanes struggling to put pucks in the net without their two best goal-scorers, though, will they be able to break through Ilya Sorokin, the Islanders’ ace in the hole, and avoid what could be one of the biggest upsets of the postseason?

Regular Season Performance

Carolina: 52-21-9, 113 points, +53 goal differential
NY Islanders: 42-31-9, 93 points, +21 goal differential

Head-To-Head

October 28, 2022: NY Islanders 6, Carolina 2
December 10, 2022: Carolina 3, NY Islanders 0
January 21, 2023: Carolina 5, NY Islanders 2
April 2, 2023: NY Islanders 1, Carolina 2

Carolina takes the season series 3-1

Team Storylines

The question surrounding the Hurricanes is clear-cut: they’ll likely dominate the possession game in this series, but can they finish enough chances to win four out of seven games?

Goal-scoring has been the disease that’s plagued Carolina in playoffs past. In last year’s second-round elimination at the hands of the New York Rangers, Carolina only scored more than two goals in a game once, a 3-1 win in Game 5.

General manager Don Waddell made a pointed acquisition last summer to address the recurring concern by plucking Max Pacioretty away from the Vegas Golden Knights in a cap-dump move. Needless to say, it didn’t work out as planned, with back-to-back Achilles tears ending Pacioretty’s season and limiting him to just five games in a Carolina uniform.

With Andrei Svechnikov now out of the lineup, Carolina’s finishing touch has evaporated. Sebastian Aho’s pulled his weight with 36 goals this year, and Martin Necas’ career year has been a life-saving measure for the division champs. More will be needed out of support players like Teuvo Teravainen and Seth Jarvis, though, if Carolina wants to avoid an upset.

It’s an upset that more and more are surmising about publically, and for good reason. Sorokin has a legitimate claim to this year’s Vezina Trophy, and since the date of Svechnikov’s injury (March 11), Carolina is the only playoff team with a negative goal differential.

Despite Carolina’s weaknesses, the Islanders still have to execute well enough to win the series. Their 243 goals ranked just 23rd in the league and are the least among all playoff teams.

One key difference? The Islanders are getting healthy. Mathew Barzal is making his return to the lineup tomorrow night, settling on the wing alongside Anders Lee and Bo Horvat. The team’s top playmaking talent had been sidelined for almost two months with a lower-body injury.

With he and leading scorer Brock Nelson on two different lines, a fully healthy top six could be enough to crack an inconsistent Frederik Andersen in the crease for Carolina.

Prediction

With injuries playing a major factor in this series, this isn’t the David vs. Goliath matchup these two teams’ regular-season records suggest. The series will rely on opportunistic scoring to beat a stingy Hurricanes defense or an elite Islanders goalie, and could very easily see multiple momentum swings.

But despite Carolina’s suffocating pressure, the Islanders have a pointed history of eking things out in the postseason. With the momentum (and goaltending) on their side, expect some more playoff magic from a team that’s dealt with pressure all season long.

The prediction: Islanders win in seven games.

PHR Playoff Primer: Los Angeles Kings vs Edmonton Oilers

at CDT | by 10 Comments

With the start of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs just a few days away, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? We continue our look with the Pacific Division matchup between the Los Angeles Kings and Edmonton Oilers.

A series that promises to be high scoring and hard fought will take place between the Los Angeles Kings and Edmonton Oilers in a rematch from a year ago. That series saw the Oilers take a lead with two blowout wins in Game 2 and 3 before falling behind 3-2 and then clawing back to win by allowing just two goals in the final two games. Connor McDavid carried the team to victory with 14 points in seven games and Mike Smith was great in goal with a .938 SV% in the series win.

The Kings were without Drew Doughty who was injured last season, but he is playing great hockey again with 52 points in 81 games this season. Adding Kevin Fiala to the lineup also gives the Kings a point-per-game player they did not have at their disposal a year ago. Doughty and Fiala give the Kings a big shot in the arm compared to a year ago, but the Oilers are playing some of the best hockey we have seen in Edmonton in decades.

Will it be the high-flying Oilers for a second consecutive season, or will the Kings exact some revenge from a first-round exit a year ago?

Regular Season Performance

Edmonton: 50-23-9, 109 points, +65 goal differential
Los Angeles: 47-25-10, 104 points, +23 goal differential

Head-To-Head

November 16, 2022: Los Angeles 3, Edmonton 1

January 9, 2023: Los Angeles 6, Edmonton 3

March 30, 2023:Edmonton 2, Los Angeles 0

April 4, 2023: Edmonton 3, Los Angeles 1

Season series tied 2-2-0

Team Storylines

The Oilers enter the postseason with Connor McDavid riding one of the greatest offensive seasons we have witnessed. Scoring 64 goals and 153 points is something we saw in the 1980’s but is simply unheard of in today’s NHL. McDavid became just the sixth player in league history to score 150 points and the first to do it since Mario Lemieux in 1996.

Though he is well ahead of anyone else in the league, he is not the only Oiler piling up points this season. Leon Draisaitl scored 52 goals and 128 points, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins added 37 goals and 104 points and Zach Hyman was over a point-per-game with 36 goals and 83 points in 79 games. Evander Kane missed significant time this season, but scored 16 goals and 28 points in 41 games and was a playoff beast a year ago, leading the postseason in goals with 13, even though the Oilers were eliminated in four straight games in the Western Conference Final.

Scoring is not, and never really was, an issue for the Oilers. The questions marks existed elsewhere, but have the Oilers patched those holes? They added Mattias Ekholm at the trade deadline, and he has been the defensive rock that they needed all along. Since adding Ekholm, the Oilers finished the season on an 18-2-1 run to ensure home-ice advantage in this series. He has been averaging well over 20 minutes of ice time per game and immediately rejuvenated the Oilers top-four defense along with Darnell Nurse, Evan Bouchard and Cody Ceci.

Do the Oilers have what it takes in goal to win a series? They thought they would be leaning on Jack Campbell at this time of year after signing him to a five-year contract with a $5MM annual cap hit just last summer. However, he struggled in his first season with the Oilers, posting a 3.41 GAA and a .888 SV%. Stuart Skinner has really taken over the starter’s role in the last quarter of the season, posting a 2.43 GAA and a .920 SV% since March 1 and giving the Oilers a reliable goaltender to lean on late in the season.

Another key to focus on is, will the Kings be able to slow down the offensive beast that is the Edmonton Oilers? A quick glance at their numbers show the Kings were not able to slow anyone down this season. They allowed 257 goals this season. The only playoff teams to allow more were the Florida Panthers and Oilers. It sure promises to be a high scoring series. With Doughty playing this time around and Vladislav Gavrikov acquired at the trade deadline, the Kings have a better chance of at least slowing down McDavid and Draisaitl. No one can stop those two, but if they are held to 7-9 points each in a series, it would force the Oilers depth pieces to add some scoring, which they are not always capable of doing.

What about the Kings goaltending? They did trade for a goaltender at the trade deadline and Joonas Korpisalo has been great for them. He played just 11 games after being acquired, but he had a 2.13 GAA and a .921 SV% to give the Kings confidence in a position that was a weakness for most of the season. If Korpisalo can continue to play like that in the first round, the Kings will be in good shape. But it is difficult for anyone to put up a .920 SV% against these Oilers, who were the highest scoring team in the NHL with 325 goals.

Special teams are always a key component in a playoff series and this will be no exception. The Oilers power play alone is enough to give goaltenders nightmares as it clicked at a 32.4% efficiency rate, which is the best power play percentage in NHL history. The Kings had a bottom ten penalty kill at 75.8%. That is not something that can be fixed overnight and could prove to be a huge problem against a team like the Oilers.

On the other hand, the Oilers penalty kill was not much better, killing off 77% of their penalties while the Kings power play converted on an impressive 25.3% of their chances. Staying out of the box is going to be key as neither team is strong while shorthanded, and both have the ability to do damage on the man advantage.

Prediction

The Kings have new pieces in place that should allow them to be more competitive this time around. Having Gavrikov and Doughty on defense, Korpisalo in goal as well as Phillip Danault who is one of the best shutdown centers in the league, should at least slow down McDavid a little bit. He is going to score on the power play, but if they can limit him at even strength, they will force the depth of the Oilers to step up, and they don’t have a lot of scoring behind their top four forwards. There won’t be two huge blowouts early in the series this time around.

The problem for the Kings is, the Oilers have addressed similar needs and now have Ekhlom as a defensive horse on the blue line and they are playing the best hockey we have seen out of any team in the past six weeks. McDavid and Draisaitl each averaged two points per game in the playoffs last spring, and both were somehow even better this season than ever before. Yes, they could use some depth scoring, but Mattias Janmark, Warren Foegele, Klim Kostin, Nick Bjugstad and Ryan McLeod give them reliable minutes even if they don’t score a ton. That can be left to the top two lines.

Yet another magical spring from McDavid and Draisaitl is about to begin, and they won’t be denied in round one. It will not be an easy one by any stretch, but the Kings offense just can’t match the Oilers scoring. Prediction: The Oilers win in six games.

PHR Playoff Primer: New Jersey Devils vs. New York Rangers

at CDT | by 5 Comments

With the start of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs just a few days away, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? We begin our look with the Metropolitan Division matchup between the New Jersey Devils and New York Rangers.

There was a time in the 1990’s where it seemed like the New York Rangers and New Jersey Devils would meet in the playoffs every spring. Now in 2023, they meet in the playoffs for the first time in 11 years. The last time the two teams met it was a dramatic back and forth six game Eastern Conference Finals series that ended with an Adam Henrique overtime goal to catapult the Devils into the Stanley Cup Finals.

What a difference a decade plus makes. The Devils haven’t won a series since that dramatic overtime victory, while the Rangers have won a lot of playoff hockey but haven’t been able to capture hockey’s ultimate prize. The battle of the Hudson River has always been a bitter rivalry, but it’s been a while since so much has been on the line for both teams.

The Devils and Rangers enter the playoffs poised to make a deep run, but only one will be able to escape the first round. This matchup may not be the most anticipated series in the first round, but it does seem like the series most likely to produce fireworks. The Devils believe they are destined for greatness, and they probably are, but will that happen this year, or will the Rangers make another deep playoff run?

Regular Season Performance

New Jersey Devils: 52-22-8, 112 points, +65 goal differential
New York Rangers: 47-22-13, 107 points, +58 goal differential.

Head-To-Head

November 28, 2022: New York 3, New Jersey 5

December 12, 2022: New York 4, New Jersey 3 (OT)

January 7, 2023: New Jersey 4, New York 3 (OT)

March 30, 2023: New Jersey 2, New York 1

New Jersey takes the season series 3-0-1

Team Storylines

The Devils and Rangers franchises have had so much in common over the years, and even still do to some degree. Both franchises loaded up for these playoffs, can score in bunches and expect to go deep in the playoffs. But that is where the similarities end. They are built differently, have different experience, and have different strengths and weaknesses.

New Jersey plays with a ton of speed and skill, they push the pace and come at you in waves. But they are small. New York on the other hand plays big, they come at you with force and can crash over top of you. But they play slow in comparison. In a seven-game series it’s hard to predict who will bend first, will New York wear New Jersey down with their physicality? Or will the Devils tire out the Rangers with their pace? Advantage New Jersey.

On the backend, both teams boast strong blue lines. They both have shutdown defenseman, puck movers, point producers, speed, skill, and grit. The Rangers defense can do it all, they are one of the most elite units in the league, if not the most elite. They can’t move the puck quite as good as the Devils unit can, but they are much more physical. And in the playoff’s physicality can sometimes mean getting that extra inch of space to make a play, or providing that big hit that completely changes a series, just ask Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins. Advantage New York.

In goal, the comparisons dry up. New York boasts arguably the best goaltender in the world in Igor Shesterkin. But, after having a historic season last year, Shesterkin has looked human for much of this year. He has been up and down, evidenced by his drop in save percentage from .935 last year to .916 this season. For the Rangers to beat the Devils in a seven-game series, Shesterkin will need to play at a Vezina award winning level. Over in the Devils net Vitek Vanecek has given the Devils something they were desperately looking for, league average goaltending. Vanecek’s save percentage this year was .911 which was just a tick above his career average coming into this season. While Vanecek has never had an experience like this before and will have to deal with nerves, Shesterkin looked very human in last year’s playoffs and for long stretches of this past regular season. Despite his up and down play this year, one would have to believe that the goaltending advantage belongs to New York.

I mentioned star power earlier and both teams boast a ton of it up front and on the back end. The stars aren’t all home grown either, both teams have made significant trades over the last 12 months to bring in major pieces that they hope can give them that final push. The Rangers brought in Patrick Kane and Vladimir Tarasenko at the trade deadline, and while neither player his lit up the scoresheet, they have both provided secondary scoring. Kane has produced 12 points in 19 games since joining the Rangers, while Tarasenko has 21 points in 31 games. On the Devils side, they acquired arguably the biggest piece at the deadline in Timo Meier. Meier has also struggled to fit in but seems to be finally finding his footing. The former San Jose Shark has 14 points in 21 games since joining the Devils.

Ironically, the line that could set these teams apart might be a group of homegrown talent for the New York Rangers. Alexis Lafrenière, Filip Chytil, and Kaapo Kakko were dynamite together in the playoffs last season, particularly in the first round series against the Pittsburgh Penguins. They were a difference maker on a nightly basis. This season all three players have hovered around the 40-point mark during the regular season. If the trio can dial it back to 2022 and produce anything close to last year’s playoff magic it could be the difference between a Rangers series win, or a Devils series win.

Prediction

It’s hard to predict who will win a series when the teams are this evenly matched. When a matchup like this does occur, you must imagine that it will come down to whichever team can get their goaltender on a heater. Last year the Rangers outlasted Pittsburgh because the Penguins had to rely on their third string goaltender. This year they’ll have to hope that Shesterkin can return to his Vezina winning form to get past the Devils.

The other element that comes into play is experience. New York has a ton of experienced playoff performers, and the Devils are green. In a toss-up, this could be the piece that pushes one team past the other.

The prediction: Rangers win in seven games.

PHR Playoff Primer: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay Lightning

at CDT | by 4 Comments

With the start of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs just a few days away, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? We begin our look with the Atlantic Division matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning.

In what may be the most hotly anticipated series of the First Round, two teams with lofty expectations will clash for the second straight year. Both teams have seen significant roster turnover since last year’s battle, with many new depth pieces looking to make impacts for Toronto, while Tampa returns without some members of the ancillary core that has gotten them to three consecutive Stanley Cup Finals.

The series presents a major test for both teams. They both enter the playoffs on wildly different trajectories based on the last few weeks of their regular season play — and those trajectories both contrast with the auras surrounding their recent playoff performance.

The potential reward for winning this war of attrition? The record-slaying Boston Bruins.

Regular Season Performance

Toronto: 50-21-11, 111 points, +57 goal differential
Tampa: 46-30-6, 98 points, +29 goal differential

Head-To-Head

December 3, 2022: Toronto 3, Tampa Bay 4 (OT)
December 20, 2022: Tampa Bay 1, Toronto 4
April 11, 2023: Toronto 4, Tampa Bay 3

Toronto takes the season series 2-0-1

Team Storylines

Anything else said about the immense pressure the Maple Leafs face to win a series would be a retread. How they avoid the mistakes of years past, though, combined with how they’ve addressed perceived weaknesses this season, is worth a deeper look.

In last season’s loss to the Lightning, Tampa held Toronto to four goals in Games 6 and 7. In 2021, Montreal held the Maple Leafs to three goals in the final two games. In the 2020 Qualifying Round against the Columbus Blue Jackets, they were shut out in the deciding Game 5. Offense evaporating at crucial times has kept the Maple Leafs from deep playoff runs.

The bulk of the pressure will again rest on the core four of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, and William Nylander to keep up their production as the series progresses. But Toronto’s acquisition of Ryan O’Reilly before the trade deadline should not be overlooked as a potential antidote to their offensive woes. He’s seemingly recaptured some offensive confidence despite decreased ice time, registering 11 points in 13 games since the trade and six points in five games since returning from a hand injury that kept him out for most of March. Combined with his winning pedigree and playoff experience, he’s one of two main x-factors for Toronto in this matchup.

The other is goaltending — and the potential for a surprise Game 1 starter. While Ilya Samsonov is still expected to start after his breakout campaign, he missed the last two games with minor injuries and, in his place, rookie Joseph Woll has posted spectacular numbers in limited action (6-1-0, .932 SV%, 2.16 GAA). The chances of the 24-year-old seeing playoff action are greater than zero, especially given Samsonov’s brief and shaky playoff history with the Washington Capitals. If Matt Murray clears concussion protocol and can provide an experienced relief option, that’s a bonus.

For Tampa Bay, this series represents the start of what the team hopes will be another deep playoff run, one that results in the franchise’s third Stanley Cup championship in four years. The main factor Tampa has going for them? They were in this exact position one year ago, and found a way to fend off Toronto in a grueling series. They created a blueprint for themselves to follow, just as they’ve done for the numerous teams they’ve eliminated over the past three seasons. That year-to-year playoff consistency is what makes them such a daunting first-round opponent despite their relatively inconsistent regular season.

Just like it is for Toronto, a major storyline for the Lightning is goaltending, only for different reasons. For Toronto, the question is whether Samsonov’s regular season success will translate to the playoffs, where he has been shaky in the past. For Tampa, the main question will be if the team will be able to once again count on playoff brilliance from Andrei Vasilevskiy after a regular season that was, while strong, not the dominant year many might have expected from him. The Maple Leafs have a lethal set of forwards and impressive depth.

If Vasilevskiy can make scoring goals feel impossible in the most important moments — just as Carey Price did for the Canadiens in 2021 — then Tampa will once again triumph. But if he can’t, and he proves to be more the mortal, beatable goalie he was at times this regular season than the impenetrable brick wall he was in the Lightning’s two Stanley Cup runs, then the Maple Leafs could finally get the playoff series win they’ve been waiting for.

Prediction

As most playoff series typically do, this battle is likely to come down to goaltending. On paper, Vasilevskiy is easily the more accomplished and reliable goalie. And if he shuts down Toronto’s scorers and Tampa once again proves victorious, that wouldn’t be a surprise to anyone.

But Toronto came close last year. They drew blood and nearly knocked out the eventual Prince of Wales winners, pushing them to the brink in a way no other Eastern Conference team could. Now, they’ve added a Conn Smythe Trophy winner, revamped their defense, added experienced depth forwards, and have gotten some of the best goaltending they’ve seen since Frederik Andersen’s departure.

This series could truly go either way, but at least at this moment, this year feels different. The prediction: Maple Leafs win in six games.

PHR Mailbag: Larkin, Flyers, Blues, Penguins, Maple Leafs, Bedard, Goalies

at CDT | by 6 Comments

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include a discussion of the potential rebuild coming in Philadelphia, possible changes for Pittsburgh next season, and whether we’ll see a goalie ever go first overall again.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

HockeyBoz: Do you think the Red Wings will look to ADD a bona fide #1 center? I think Yzerman OVER-PAID big time on Larkin as he is NOT a #1 center and can not drive a team as all the homers here in Detroit think. He is the best player on an average at best team. They need goal-scorers!

I don’t expect them to be adding a middleman that’s better than Dylan Larkin in the near future.  The simple reason for that is this – I don’t think there will be any that are available.  Detroit isn’t in a position to be trying to go all-in here; they’re a few steps away from that.  The slow, steady build is clearly what they’re planning to do and with that, they can get away with the status quo with Larkin on the top line for a little while yet.

As for him being overpaid, I’m not sure I agree with that.  We saw what Bo Horvat got from the Islanders at $8.5MM.  His teammate Mathew Barzal checks in next year at $9.1MM.  Roope Hintz is at $8.45MM with similar numbers this season to Larkin.  Relative to market value at least, Larkin seems to fit in pretty close to where he should be on that scale.

Now, if you want to make the case that spending that type of money on a 1B type of center isn’t ideal, that’s fair.  But with a dearth of free agents available, Larkin would have been the best center on the market this summer.  Could they really afford to lose him?  How much of a step back would that be to their timeline?  Those are factors that I imagine Yzerman took into consideration when they handed out this deal.

In a perfect world, I think Detroit’s goal is to draft and develop a center that could one day supplant Larkin on the top line, pushing the captain down to the second trio.  But finding one from outside the organization is going to be tough as those players just aren’t available all that often.

Black Ace57: I know I ask this almost every time, but after Chuck being fired and what people at the top have said are the Flyers finally going to do the proper rebuild they need?

When it comes to the rebuild, I’m a lot more confident of it happening now than I was prior to the trade deadline.  Notwithstanding the odd timing of Chuck Fletcher’s firing (if you’re letting him go a week after the deadline, why not make the move before then to let Briere show what he could do?), the intended separation of duties into two positions should ease them into a rebuilding direction.

First-time general managers don’t often come in with win-now expectations and I suspect that trend will continue as, like many, I figure Briere will have the interim tag lifted and the new president will work with Briere to chart a new direction.

As for whether it’s a proper rebuild, I suppose that depends on your definition of the word proper.  Does that mean a five-year, burn-it-to-the-ground strategy?  I don’t think that’s their intention.  Instead, a shorter-term process that churns out some of their veterans and brings in some picks and prospects to add to their current young core is where I think they’ll lean.

DonnieBaseBallHOFer: Say the Flyers remove the interim tag from Briere, and name you Pres. of Ops…following Torts’ comments that subtraction is needed before addition, who are you keeping/cutting amongst these:

Keepers: Couturier, Laughton, Konecny, Tippett, Ersson, Frost, Foerster, Noah Cates, York, Seeler

Available for the right Deal: Frost, Hart, Provorov, Farabee, Ristolainen, DeAngelo

Time to Move on: JVR, Hayes, Bellows, Braun

On the Fence: Sanheim, Atkinson

Obvious caveat that some of these contracts are going to be hard to move…

Well, hiring me is one way to mess up the rebuild but I’ll play along.  I’ll leave the pending UFAs off my list as they’re almost certainly moving on already.

Keepers: Tippett, Frost, Foerster, York, Hart, Cates

Available For Right Deal: Laughton, Konecny, Ersson, Seeler, Ersson, Farabee, Sanheim, Provorov

Looking To Move: Hayes, Atkinson, Couturier, Ristolainen, DeAngelo, Sandstrom, Bellows (likely non-tender)

Some quick rationale on some of the revised placements.  I’m not sold that Samuel Ersson is their goalie of the future.  He has done decently in limited action but I’m not moving on from Carter Hart to anoint Ersson their new starter if it’s up to me.  24 isn’t too old for a rebuild, especially since goalies tend to hit their primes a little later than skaters.  I’m looking to extend him and if it winds up being a longer rebuild than planned, look at moving him then.

Travis Konecny only has two years left on his deal and if it’s an extended rebuild, is he part of the future plans?  If someone wants to pay up for the contract which is a below-market one, that’s going to be a pretty valuable return.  That return likely fits my timeline better than an extended Konecny two years from now.

The other big change from my list is Sean Couturier.  Nothing against him but that was a bad contract the day it was signed.  He still has some time left as a legitimate top-six middleman, assuming he’s back to full health next season.  I’d be looking to get out of that contract while he still has some short-term utility to a team before it becomes a deal that they’ll have to pay a high price to get out of down the road.

On the back end, Travis Sanheim’s extension basically locks him in as part of the plans for now.  Ivan Provorov would be the likelier of the two to move as he’s basically in the same spot as Konecny.  Anthony DeAngelo isn’t going to be part of their long-term plans for a rebuild and Rasmus Ristolainen is a contract they’d probably like to get out of but he’ll probably stick around for a while.

Gmm8811: So far, I like what Army has done with acquiring assets and the pickups of Vrana and Kapanen. I still believe he has to clear some cap space. Do you think Krug is the one to go assuming he’d waive his NMC? Would Parayko? Both? Binnington has become more of liability and is a head case. I’ve heard he would only waive in order to go to Toronto, but that doesn’t seem a likely option.

Let’s look at the cap situation first.  Per CapFriendly, they have $76.8MM committed to 18 players for next season, leaving $6.7MM in room to sign four or five players.  There aren’t many prominent pending free agents; I’d put Alexey Toropchenko as their best RFA and Thomas Greiss as their best UFA.  So, do they have to clear money?  Probably not, especially if they’re looking at taking a step back for a year.  There’s enough cap room in there to bring up Joel Hofer as the backup, re-sign Toropchenko, add/promote a few players making around $1MM, and call it a day.

I don’t think the right question around Torey Krug is whether he’d waive his trade protection.  The question is will anyone want him?  It has not been a good year for him, to put it nicely.  With four years left on his deal at $6.5MM and declining production, he’s not exactly going to be in demand; St. Louis would likely need to pay down the contract and incentivize a team to take him on.  That isn’t to say his value can’t improve and he’ll have trade value down the road but right now, he doesn’t.

As for Colton Parayko, the long injury history would scare me off if I was a GM, as would a $6.5MM cap hit through 2029-30.  But his combination of size and skill is hard to come by so there would be some interest.  But unless St. Louis is planning on going through an extended rebuild, I don’t think GM Doug Armstrong will be actively looking to move him.  If this is a quick turnaround, he’ll be part of their future plans.

Then there’s Jordan Binnington.  The on-ice antics certainly aren’t helping things but the on-ice performance is hurting him even more.  He’s making $6MM for four more years and has a save percentage that doesn’t crack the top 40 among qualifying netminders.  Forget the other things and just look at his performance, it’s not going to have anyone wanting to trade for him.  He might want to play for his hometown team although that’s straight-up speculation at this point.  But, like Krug, Binnington is going to have to be a lot better next season to have a chance of moving.

bapthemailman: What will the Penguins roster look like next year?

I expect the core will mostly stay in place.  With their long-time veterans locked up, I don’t think they’re heading for any sort of rebuild.  However, there will be some changes.

To me, Tristan Jarry is a legitimate starting goalie in the NHL.  However, his propensity for injuries is going to make it awfully difficult to commit a long-term contract at starter money this summer.  I expect them to take a look at the trade market in June and I wouldn’t be shocked if their opening night starter is someone that currently isn’t in their organization.  That’s one change.

On the back end, I could see the team moving on from Brian Dumoulin.  While Ty Smith plays a completely different style, Dumoulin’s departure would open up a full-time spot for Smith who should be an important part of their future.  Having spent the bulk of this season in the minors, Smith’s next contract shouldn’t be more than $1.5MM which would give Pittsburgh a chance to shift some spending elsewhere.  If Dmitry Kulikov is willing to sign for close to what the Penguins are covering on his deal ($1.15MM), I think they’d happily do that in the hopes of having to avoid trying to trade for more depth at the deadline next season.

Up front, I think they’ll take a run at extending Jason Zucker, albeit at a price tag that’s lower than his current $5.5MM AAV.  If they can’t re-sign him, they’ll have space to look for another forward.  I could see them focusing on a center.  Yes, Mikael Granlund, their big deadline acquisition, can play down the middle but he’s much better off on the wing.  Adding someone to that third line that can take some pressure (and playing time) away from Jeff Carter would be nice.  Off the top of my head, someone like Lars Eller would fit that bill.

I don’t expect the Penguins to have a lot of cap space heading into next season as I believe they will be looking to keep this team in the playoff mix.  There could be a few changes among the veterans in an effort to try to shake things up but for the most part, there should be a lot of familiarity with this group heading into 2023-24.

Grocery Stick: How is Toronto looking if they don’t give a new contract to their GM this offseason? Selling off hugely for a new start? Or will they still try to find a way to be a contender next season?

In this scenario, I believe the Maple Leafs would have several quality executives trying to land that job while saying that they have a plan to win now without blowing up that core group.  There is simply too much talent on Toronto for someone to turn around and say that it’s time to blow it all up.

Could there be a coaching change if Tampa Bay ousts them in the first round again?  Sure, it’s possible.  Is it even possible that whoever is running the team – Kyle Dubas or someone else – decides to move one of their core four players?  Yep.  Extension talks with Auston Matthews and William Nylander (which can happen this summer) will give them an idea about the potential ability (or inability) to keep this group together with those discussions potentially shaping their plans this summer.  But even at that, that’s one piece being traded for another key piece, not a drastic change.

The other reason I can’t see them beginning a full-scale rebuild is this – they don’t have many of their own draft picks.  If you’re going to rebuild and finish low in the standings, you lose the benefit of doing so by not having those selections.  Toronto’s 2025 first-round pick has limited protection and they don’t have a second-rounder until 2027.  The last thing they’d want is them struggling and other teams reaping the benefits.

I think Toronto can win with this core group even with their previous playoff performances.  I’m sure many others around the league do as well.  Whoever is in charge next season is likely to have that same mindset.

Read more

PHR Mailbag: Rossi, Predictions, Summer Trade Candidates, Playoffs, Ducks, Three-Team Trades, Kings

at CDT | by 4 Comments

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the upcoming playoffs, Anaheim’s coaching situation, injuries in Los Angeles, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch to see if it appears in next weekend’s mailbag.

Zakis: Why hasn’t the Wild brought Rossi back up? They could use scoring and are always searching for centers.

When Minnesota made the decision to send Marco Rossi down to AHL Iowa in late November, the idea was that they wanted to give him some consistent playing time in an offensive role.  The move has proven to be a good one as he’s hovering around the point-per-game mark which is a small improvement over last season.  On merit, he has certainly earned another look.

Here’s the thing.  Could they have used him when the roster was basically thinned out which was the case up until a couple of games ago?  Sure.  However, even with the injuries, they never got to the point of qualifying for an emergency recall.  Now that we’re after the trade deadline, the dreaded four-recall rule is in effect which basically means that teams are limited to four non-emergency recalls until their affiliates’ season is done (including playoffs).

Because they had enough bodies to avoid emergency recall status, they’d have had to have burned one of those recalls to bring Rossi up.  And now, with most of the forwards back to being healthy (aside from Kirill Kaprizov), there wouldn’t really be any room for Rossi in the lineup, at least in a role that is optimal for his development and Minnesota’s success.  (Playing him eight minutes on the fourth line isn’t doing anyone any good.)  Is it worth burning one of those recalls and disrupting his momentum for a short-term stint?  It appears GM Bill Guerin felt the answer was no.

The Duke: Dear Crystal Ball: please provide the fortunes for Nicholas Robertson, Alexander Holtz, Luke Hughes, and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. BONUS BOUNTY: Who are the Final 4 and who wins the Stanley Cup? Kind regards.

Robertson: Things haven’t gone well for him in the pros, have they?  He has lost a lot of development time due to injuries, that’s for sure.  Robertson feels like the type of player that probably best fits in on an offensive third line that can move up when injuries arise or if he has chemistry with a specific center.  Despite how long he has been out, he can still be an important part of Toronto’s group, especially as a cost-controlled player that should be able to produce as long as he can stay healthy.

Holtz: It hasn’t been a great start for Holtz to his career in North America.  He has done well in the minors but it has yet to translate to much NHL success.  On the other hand, he’s only 21, leaving plenty of time for development.  I still think he will be a top-six forward down the road.  I wouldn’t be shocked if he became a top liner still for that matter.

Hughes: The presence of Dougie Hamilton will limit Hughes’ offensive output, at least early on.  With Hamilton logging big minutes including some power play time, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Hughes around the 30-35-point mark early on.  Long term, 50+ points should be achievable on an annual basis which would have him in the top 20 league-wide.  I’m not sure he’ll see 25 minutes a night like a typical number one defenseman but Hughes should produce like one.

Luukkonen: It has been a bit of an up-and-down first extended taste of NHL action, hasn’t it?  I’m not sure he’s the goalie of the future for Buffalo but he’s a goalie of the future for Buffalo.  In an era that is becoming more reliant on platoons, Luukkonen should be able to fill one of those spots as long as he can wean down the erratic performances and become more consistent.  If he and Devon Levi can cover anywhere between 35-50 games each per season, they’ll be thrilled.

Bonus: I think I had the Stars and Bruins as the Cup Final matchup in the last mailbag and I’ll stick with that prediction for now with Boston winning.  As for the other two conference finalists?  I think the Rangers come out of the Metropolitan and one of Edmonton’s goalies gets on a hot streak to get the Oilers out of the Pacific.

baji kimran: I know you don’t own a crystal ball, but what do you think are the chances the following three centers who will be on expiring contracts next year get traded before the end of next year or hit the open market next summer?

  1. Elias Lindholm. Calgary may not want to head toward a rebuild, especially with that awful Huberdeau contract, but if they struggle to compete, it may make sense to move him.
  2. Auston Matthews. The Leafs have until July 1st to extend him or his no-movement clause kicks in and it will be harder to move him if he isn’t willing to pursue an extension. When he does sign, it will be the largest deal ever and the Leafs are also faced with trying to keep Nylander, who will also be on an expiring contract. Some think Matthews wants to go to Arizona, but if they can’t pass the vote to build a new arena, that won’t be a wise move. In that instance, L.A. becomes the favorite.
  3. Anze Kopitar. Kopitar still plays at a high level, but with the Kings locked into Danault for three more years and their probable desire to sign Roy, Kempe, Byfield, and Lizotte to extensions, Kopitar could become an odd man out, especially if Matthews were to land in L.A.

Wait, I’m confused now.  Didn’t I just have a crystal ball a moment ago?  Where did it go?  Oh well, onto the questions.

1) I expect the Flames to take a real run at re-signing Lindholm this summer.  If they can’t get something done, I think the odds of him being moved are quite high, think in the 75% range.  I think Calgary has shown this season that their core as constructed isn’t good enough to contend.  They’re better than they’re playing but even a different coach isn’t going to vault them into contender status.  Maybe there’s a bump to get them into a playoff spot but that’s not the same as a contender.  If they need to change up the core, the logical place to start from is a player who, in this scenario, doesn’t want to re-sign.  Yes, they could keep Lindholm and look to move him in-season which is why that percentage isn’t even higher.  But if that’s the route that they take, they’re probably running it back.  I just can’t see them doing that.

2) Technically, Toronto can only extend Matthews on July 1st which happens to coincide with the trade protection.  While they’re not supposed to negotiate before then, we all know that rule isn’t exactly followed.  I expect the Maple Leafs will hand Matthews the richest contract in NHL history sometime this offseason, at least from an AAV perspective; it might not be a max term.  Does that force Nylander out?  Probably, but with John Tavares’ deal only being one year longer than Matthews’, they’re not going to willingly run the risk of losing two high-end middlemen.  If Matthews wants to stay, they’ll get something done.  If he wants to wait and see what happens in 2023-24, I think they’ll still hold onto him.  I’ll go with a 5% chance that he’s moved which is basically the scenario of him saying I won’t re-sign so trade me to where I want to go.

3) My first thought was that they wouldn’t want to trade a franchise legend.  My second was they just traded one last month so that first thought might not hold up.  But I don’t think there’s much of a desire to move him.  He has one year left after this season which lines up with Matthews so in your scenario of Matthews signing in Los Angeles, they’d probably just let Kopitar walk at the same time.  Of the potential extensions, they’d all kick in after Kopitar’s deal is up so they don’t need to trade him to free up room for those contracts.  I can’t say 0% odds here with what happened with Quick so I’ll go with a 1% chance he’s traded.

Breakaway: 1). Who do you predict will be the four wild card teams?

2). Which one of those four teams can make some “noise” in the playoffs?

3). Who, if anyone, can knock the Bruins out of the playoffs?

1) In the East, I expect the Penguins will find a way to back their way in.  The Islanders are fragile but I think they’ll just stay ahead of the Panthers.  Out West, the Jets seem like a safe bet for one of the spots; they’ll be in tough to move up in the Central with everyone else having games in hand.  It’d be funny if the Predators got in after selling but I don’t think they will and instead, the Kraken will get the other spot.

2) I’ll go with the Islanders here.  Ilya Sorokin is capable of stealing some games on his own and they already play lower-scoring games that the playoffs often bring.  It might not be a run like they had in 2020-21 when they nearly beat Tampa Bay to make the Stanley Cup Final but they could surprise.  Connor Hellebuyck could do the same but Winnipeg has been too erratic lately to count on.

3) The Maple Leafs match up fairly well and if that winds up being a second-round matchup, it wouldn’t shock me if they won.  In the Metro, both the Rangers and Hurricanes would have a chance to win a series.  Boston is still the prohibitive favorite, no doubt, but any of those teams could knock them out before the Final without it necessarily being too surprising.

JustPete: The Anaheim Ducks are mired in a multi-season “rebuild”. Frankly, they are difficult to watch. Their offensive efforts are seemingly limited to the dump and chase as they cannot skate or pass the puck into the offensive zone. They play an awful zone defense that often leaves a defender open in the slot. While they have flashes of skilled play, it is mostly haphazard play without speed or organization.

They have a “core” of good skill players – who don’t work together.

My question is whether it is time for a coaching change. I cannot fathom how they can play this badly. They look like a rudderless ship meandering through the rink.

I do expect there to be a coaching change in Anaheim.  From the moment that Pat Verbeek took over as GM, I expected Dallas Eakins would be let go on the day following the end of the 2022-23 regular season.

We saw at the AHL level that he wasted little time shaking up the staff in San Diego even with Joel Bouchard having term left on his deal.  However, there’s a big difference between AHL coach money and NHL coach money.  For a season that Anaheim wasn’t expected to go anywhere, paying for two coaches on a team that’s not a cap spender didn’t make economic sense.  But Eakins is in the final year of his contract so I think they’ve elected to play out this season and then simply not renew his deal, thereby paving the way for a new coach later this spring.

The Ducks have a decent young foundation to work with plus some promising offensive-minded prospects on the horizon.  Accordingly, I expect their next bench boss to be someone that wants to play more up-tempo with an emphasis on player development in the short term.  Verbeek has been around long enough going back to his time as an assistant GM to have a good idea of the type of coach he’ll want and a list of candidates that could fit the bill.

Read more

Examining The Vancouver Canucks’ Salary Cap Situation

at CDT | by 4 Comments

After one of the most eventful trade deadlines in the last decade, there became a strong line contrasting buyers and sellers. Many of the top teams in the league added more talent to their roster, and some teams outside the playoff picture went down a clear direction of selling. However, one of the most popular questions arising from the deadline was: ’What exactly are the Vancouver Canucks doing?’.

Since their trip to the Stanley Cup Final in 2011, the Canucks haven’t been a serious playoff threat in over a decade. After acquiring Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Conor Garland during the 2021 NHL Draft, there was legitimate hope that this team could return to the playoffs and make some noise. Instead, the team finished with a 40-30-12 record, fifth place in the Pacific Division, and 10th in the Western Conference, falling short of the playoffs again. They did sell off a few pieces at last year’s deadline but also chose to sign forward J.T. Miller to an 8-year, $64MM contract extension, thus indicating that they were still hoping to compete with this core.

This year, it’s been much of the same. Currently standing at 25-32-5, the Canucks are once again well outside the playoff picture. Many believed that the fire sale had begun after dishing longtime captain Bo Horvat to the New York Islanders for Anthony Beauvillier, Aatu Raty, and a first-round pick in 2023. This deal was made four days after signing pending unrestricted free agent Andrei Kuzmenko to a 2-year, $11MM contract extension. Kuzmenko was thought to be a trade chip available before the deadline, but an argument can be made that Kuzmenko, 27, could fit around the timeline of building blocks Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes.

About a month later, the Canucks continued to look toward the future. Acquiring young forward Vitali Kravtsov from the New York Rangers, and also selling off pieces such as Riley Stillman, Luke Schenn, and Curtis Lazar. However, in one of the more stunning moves from deadline week, they sent the first-round pick acquired from the Islanders for Horvat as well as their own second-round pick from this season to the Detroit Red Wings for defenseman Filip Hronek. Similarly to Kuzmenko, an argument can be made that Hronek fits into the timeline as he is only 25 years old. He has two years remaining on his contract, he will be a restricted free agent at the end of his deal, and Tyler Myers’ contract will be up at the same time if he is not moved beforehand.

Although it is reasonable to suggest that Hronek and Kuzmenko fit the supposed timeline, this has quickly become a team that just can’t get it done. Their head coaching situation has been a carousel for some time, and the front office is investing a lot of money and assets into players that are not good enough to help this team go on a run in the playoffs. It’s not all doom and gloom in Vancouver, they have two of the best young talents in the league in Pettersson and Hughes, but the supporting staff must be changed quickly. There were rumors swirling around on the deadline day that the Canucks had a deal in place with the Pittsburgh Penguins to unload Miller, but it was nixed at the goal line by the Canucks because they were not receiving a young center in return. With the team in the position that they are, not receiving a young center in return is not a defensible excuse to not make that trade.

Included in the Miller extension, he will have a complete no-movement clause until the 2027-28 season. Ekman-Larsson is the only other Canuck on the roster with that same attachment included in his contract. Aside from that, Myers, Ilya Mikheyev, Micheal Ferland, and Tanner Pearson all have modified no-trade clauses in their respective contracts. They will receive salary relief at the end of this year as Ferland’s contract is up, but he has not factored much into their in-season movement due to his stay on the LTIR. Although it will be hard for many teams to acquire such high-priced contracts from the Canucks’, the Nashville Predators showed exactly how to get it done. After trading away Mattias Ekholm, Mikael Granlund, and Nino Niederreiter, the Predators were able to clear a total of $10.5MM, as well as pick up a total of four draft picks, along with prospects. Sticking with their core of Roman Josi, Filip Forsberg, and Juuse Saros, the Predators cleared cap space, acquired future assets, and are now able to retool around their core players.

This isn’t to say that every draft pick is going to work out wonderfully for the Predators, but at the very least they are now a team with options. If the Canucks continue to shy away from a full-on teardown, the most important pieces of their roster that need to be addressed are defense and goaltending. As they have a GF/G of 3.32, and a team powerplay percentage of 23.1%, the Canucks offense seems to be manageable as they rank higher than some playoff teams in those respective categories. Despite the above-average offense, this team can’t stop letting the puck go into their net. Ranking 31st in the NHL, the Canucks sport a GA/G of 3.89, and a league-worst save percentage of 87.6%.

With their top defenseman Hughes taking a much more offensive approach to the game, it would make more sense to acquire defensemen that play a similar style to Brandon Carlo from the Boston Bruins and Erik Cernak of the Tampa Bay Lightning. Although they do not score the highlight reel goals, they are some of the very best defensive defensemen in the NHL. Back in November, it was reported that the Canucks and Ottawa Senators held discussions involving Myers, meaning talks could be revisited at the conclusion of the season.

The defense has also impacted the goaltending in Vancouver as well. Many fans have soured on the idea of Thatcher Demko being the long-term answer in the net, but injuries aside, he has been above average throughout his young career. With a cumulative stat line of 91.0% save percentage, 2.93 goals against average, and 6.4 goals saved above average, those numbers show that there should still be hope for Demko.

Once the offseason rolls around, Vancouver needs to be shopping high-price veterans such as Miller, Garland, Myers, and Brock Boeser. Instead of trading away draft capital in hopes of still competing, the Canucks should be stockpiling it. Because of the dollar value of these contracts, they may not receive much in return, but having the luxury of cap space in today’s NHL is an asset in and of itself. Residing in a Canadian market is always going to include added pressure, but with the ability to build around Pettersson and Hughes, the Canucks shouldn’t be as far away as they currently are. Vancouver shouldn’t entertain moving those two, but they need a much harder reset than what they are attempting now.

As they still retain their first-round selection in the upcoming draft, Canucks currently are projected to have the sixth overall pick. Although that is a good draft ranking for a team in this position, because of previous moves, they only have five picks in the first three rounds of the next two drafts. If they are able to acquire more, as they should, the Canucks will now have more options at their disposal. Mismanagement has governed this team for too long, and the Canucks need to pick a more sensible direction.

Big Hype Prospects: Sykora, Michkov, Huuhtanen, Poirier, Merilainen

at CDT | by 2 Comments

Welcome to PHR’s Big Hype Prospects series. Like the MLB Trade Rumors series of the same name, we’re taking a look at the performances of top prospects from across the hockey world. We’ll look at drafted prospects who are rising, others who are struggling, and prospects for the upcoming draft who are notable.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Adam Sykora, LW, New York Rangers (HK Nitra, Tipos Extraliga)
37 GP 8G 12A 20pts

Despite not having a first-round pick at the 2022 NHL draft thanks to their in-season acquisition of Andrew Copp from the Winnipeg Jets, it seems as though the Rangers still managed to nab a quality prospect with their highest pick in the draft, all the way down at 63rd overall.

While fast-rising Montreal Canadiens prospect Lane Hutson has attracted most of the attention for the way he’s laid waste to college hockey in his first season since being drafted, Sykora, the player selected immediately after Huston has had among the most impressive and attention-worthy seasons of the 2022 second-round as well.

With 20 points in 37 games played, Sykora has upped his point-per-game scoring rate from .37 to .54.

That scoring rate puts him third in U21 scoring in Slovakia’s top professional league, and the two players in front of him are aged 21 and 20, respectively. Sykora, on the other hand, is just 18 years old and will have to wait until September to turn 19.

In other words, Sykora is just over a month older than top 2023 draft prospect Adam Fantilli, and is already reaching triple-digit career games played in a solid professional league.

And beyond just his scoring rate, Sykora is one of Nitra’s most relied-upon players, often skating in more than 20 minutes a night and regularly contributing on both special teams units.

Sykora’s best asset is his motor, which is always running to the max on every shift. He’s extremely hard-working and has more skill than one might expect. While he may not end up an overwhelming points producer, it’s easy to see his game being quickly transferrable to North American ice. He was even drafted number-one overall at the 2022 CHL Import Draft, suggesting Canadian junior teams were similarly optimistic about his game’s translatability to the other side of the Atlantic, and he’s already signed to an entry-level deal with the Rangers.

While Nitra hasn’t been a great team as a whole this year, they play HK Poprad in a playoff series later this week and Sykora’s performance there will definitely be something for the Rangers and their fans to pay attention to.

Matvei Michkov, LW, 2023 Draft Prospect (HK Sochi, KHL)
27 GP 9G 11A 2opts (for Sochi)

With Connor Bedard routinely torching competition in the WHL and Fantilli piling up impressive scoring numbers in college hockey, it’s easy to see why they’re regularly viewed as the two main can’t-miss prospects eligible to be selected at the draft in Nashville. But tucked away in the KHL (and under contract there through 2025-26) is Matvei Michkov, who has all the talent to be in the conversation with those other two prospects but is highly unlikely to be a consideration for the top-two picks in the draft.

Michkov’s season began somewhat unevenly. He was playing well, especially at the second-tier VHL level where he scored 14 points in 12 games, but opportunities in the KHL were scarce. His club, SKA St. Petersburg, is regularly among the KHL’s juggernaut teams and could not afford him any sort of regular role. In fact, when he managed to get into the ice for two KHL games, he finished with less than eight total minutes played across both games.

A December loan to HK Sochi, a team that would be able to give him ample ice time, ignited Michkov’s game and gave him a chance to show what he could do in one of the most talent-rich leagues outside the NHL. Michkov ended up playing 27 games for Sochi, and he finished with 20 points in 27 games. While one might note that eight of those points game in two games against the Kunlun Red Star, the KHL’s Chinese club and one of the worst teams in their league, it’s also worth noting that Kunlun won 10 more games this season than Sochi did.

Michkov is a fantastically skilled offensive player and his scoring numbers in the KHL are extremely rare for someone his age to accomplish. Kirill Kaprizov managed just eight points in 31 games in his own draft year, while Alex Ovechkin scored 23 points (more than Michkov) but in 53 games, not the 27 Michkov played for Sochi.

That’s not to say that Michkov is going to have the type of NHL success either of those two players have had — one is an all-time great and the other is looking increasingly like a franchise-defining star — but it does indicate the type of rare talent we’re dealing with here.

While the uncertain timeline of when Michkov would be available to NHL teams will likely hurt him on draft day, as NHL GMs weigh the risks and rewards of investing such high picks in different players, Michkov’s form in Sochi has underscored just how much he belongs in the conversation for the most talented player available at the 2023 draft not named Bedard.

Niko Huuhtanen, RW, Tampa Bay Lightning (Jukurit, Liiga)
45 GP 16G 13A 29pts

While Huuhtanen, 19, was the 2021 NHL draft’s “Mr. Irrelevant” as the last player selected, to borrow from an NFL tradition, he’s quickly reached a point of relevance in the two seasons since earning the moniker. The Lightning saw something in Huuhtanen, a six-foot-two 210-pound winger, and used their last pick on him after he scored 20 goals and 34 points at the Finnish junior level.

He was selected second overall at the 2021 CHL Import Draft, and headed to the WHL to play for the Everett Silvertips the following year. As a later birthdate for the 2021 draft, suspicions that Huuhtanen might be a late-bloomer seemed to be confirmed after his WHL performance, as he became an instant-impact contributor for the Silvertips, and finished with 37 goals and 77 points in 65 games.

This season, Huuhtanen has taken his game even further and is now one of the top scorers for Jukurit, a team in one of the best professional leagues in the world. At just 19 years old, Huuhtanen manged to score 16 goals and 29 points for Jukurit, a total that led all teenage players in Liiga. Huuhtanen plays the type of game that is highly coveted among NHL teams, combining the prototypical power forward’s physical game with goal-scoring ability and some sneaky skill.

According to CapFriendly, the Lightning have all the way until June 1st, 2025 to give Huuhtanen his entry-level deal before losing his exclusive rights. But given the way he’s played the past two years and how pro-ready his game looks, it’s likely that he’ll enter their organization well before that runway ends.

Jeremie Poirier, LHD, Calgary Flames (Calgary, AHL)
53 GP 7G 29A 36pts

Oftentimes it can be a bit of a challenge for skaters (and especially defensemen) who score at the junior level to translate their impressive numbers to the professional level. There’s often the pressure for defensemen to become deferential in their game, to play with a lot more safety and lose the type of risk-taking offensive flair that made them successful at those lower levels. Those challenges can be even more greatly magnified by higher competition level, as the time and space with the puck players are often more easily able to generate at the junior level can quickly evaporate against pros.

For Poirier, a Flames 2020 third-round pick, those challenges have been more than capably met. Fresh off of a Memorial Cup victory with the Saint John Sea Dogs of the QMJHL, Poirier has stepped into the lineup with the Calgary Wranglers and become their most productive defenseman in his rookie professional season. With 36 points in 53 games, Poirier is not only Calgary’s most productive defenseman, he’s also the most productive defenseman aged 20 or under in the American League.

While the Flames have seemingly deemed him best served playing a full first pro season in the AHL without the potential interruption an NHL call-up would bring, Poirier has quickly played his way into the Flames’ medium-to-long-term blueline plans.

Flames head coach Darryl Sutter is notoriously demanding of his players, and it’s likely that Poirier will need to further refine his defensive game to have success under Sutter. But as far as adjustments from the CHL to NHL go, Poirier’s has been as smooth as one could reasonably have hoped it would be.

Leevi Merilainen, G, Ottawa Senators (Karpat, Liiga)

39 GP 1.94 GAA .920 SV%

While the Ottawa Senators got strong goaltending from Anton Forsberg last season and gave him a $2.75MM AAV contract extension through 2025, the team’s “goalie of the future” remains relatively unclear. Big 2019 second-round pick Mads Sogaard has done quite well in six NHL games, with a 4-0-1 record, 2.33 GAA, and .922 save percentage, but he has just an .898 save percentage in 21 AHL games this season. 22-year-old Kevin Mandolese is a big netminder, but his AHL numbers have been similarly shaky.

While 2020 third-round pick Leevi Merilainen’s uneven play last season in the OHL with the Kingston Frontenacs was far from the resounding step towards “goalie of the future” status many were hoping he’d take, his form this season in the Finnish Liiga has been exactly that.

Merilainen has played in 39 games for Karpat this season and currently ranks third among all league netminders with a .920 save percentage. He’s helped Karpat rise to the upper end of Liiga’s standings and has handily outperformed 2020 Pittsburgh Penguins second-rounder Joel Blomqvist. At six-foot-two, 180 pounds Merilainen doesn’t have the imposing size many NHL teams covet in their goalies, but he’s also big enough where size isn’t the sort of underlying concern it is for other prospect goalies.

The Senators signed Merilainen to an entry-level deal in 2021, and could be looking to have him cross the Atlantic and continue his development in their organization next season.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Pro Hockey Rumors is not affiliated with National Hockey League, NHL or NHL.com

Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

scroll to top