PHR Mailbag

The holiday season is over and the NHL is right back to the grind. Some teams are just counting the days until the draft lottery, while others are making travel plans for the playoffs. Several, including many that are still on the postseason bubble, will have to take a hard look at their roster over the next few weeks to decide whether to add or subtract at the trade deadline.

With that in mind, it’s time to run our first mailbag of 2020. You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. Make sure you get your questions in early and we’ll try to get through as many as possible when the mailbag runs on the weekend.

If you missed our last edition before the Christmas break, it was split into two parts (here and here). In the first, Brian tackled questions regarding Robin Lehner’s future in Chicago, Detroit’s tank-a-thon season, and some New York trade targets. In the second, Alex Pietrangelo was a subject of conversation, along with predictions on how the Metropolitan Division will shake out when all is said and done.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Alex Pietrangelo’s future in St. Louis, what the Rangers may do in the second half, Jeremy Colliton’s coaching tenure in Chicago, the viability of Torey Krug as a trade candidate for Boston, adding to the Islanders, and forecasting the Metropolitan Division standings.

@Pointdink: Will the Blues trade Petro?

I don’t think they will.  While it’s fair to look at their cap situation moving forward and wonder how they could fit him in at a new deal paying somewhere between $8.5MM and $9.5MM per season, I suspect GM Doug Armstrong still believes he can get him signed.  Maybe the cap goes up a bit more than expected which gives them enough to get a new deal done.  Perhaps there will be a willingness to buy out a contract to free up another couple of million (even though it would add money to the books later on).

Even if neither of those are likely to happen, St. Louis isn’t exactly a seller.  Despite missing Vladimir Tarasenko, they sit atop the Western Conference and with Tarasenko likely to be back for the playoffs, they have their eyes on trying to repeat as Stanley Cup champs.  Dealing away their captain and a crucial part of their back end doesn’t help them try to accomplish that even if it runs the risk of losing him for nothing in free agency.

acarneglia: How do the Rangers make the playoffs this year?

CoachWall: The trade deadline is approaching. What assets, if any, do the Rangers trade and what do they seek in return?

Two very different scenarios here regarding the same team.

Let’s start with how they get to the postseason.  For that to happen, Alexandar Georgiev will need to continue to steal minutes away from Henrik Lundqvist and provide some more consistent goaltending while stealing some games.  Chris Kreider will need to stay put.  Kaapo Kakko will have to produce with more consistency as does Pavel Buchnevich.  If that all happens, perhaps that persuades GM Jeff Gorton to make a move to add a veteran or two and they help propel them to a postseason position.  It’s certainly not impossible that all of that happens – some of it likely will – but it’s not a probable outcome.

Selling is probably the way they go here.  Unless they go on a big run, they’ll either be on or below the bubble and given where they are in their competitive window, the smart play is to add for the future and look for young players that line up with their group of current youngsters.  In a perfect world, I think Gorton would rather add those than draft picks or prospects that are still a few years away.

Kreider is the obvious candidate to be moved unless they can agree to a contract extension.  I think Jesper Fast moves to a team looking to add bottom six depth.  That’s basically the end of their rental assets.  Buchnevich has been hot and cold throughout his career and will be entering the final year of his bridge deal next season.  He’s a change of scenery candidate whether it’s now or in the postseason.

Darkhorse: Frustration is evident when looking at Toews and company in Chicago. Lehner has been candid saying the team has the talent but doesn’t play defense. Is the Colliton experiment over soon? Who else would they bring in?

I don’t see a coaching change on the horizon in Chicago.  GM Stan Bowman’s decision to let Joel Quenneville go a year ago was a bit controversial given the composition of their roster (it wasn’t exactly a playoff-caliber team on paper) so I have a hard time believing he’ll get the green light to let go of Colliton barely a year later.  As far as coaching tenures go, he has only been there for 103 games.  In the grand scheme of things, that’s not a lot of time.

I suppose with Peter DeBoer out there and his believed willingness to return this season if the right situation opens up, he’d have to be considered as a potential replacement but a lot of times, in-season moves involve an assistant taking over (Marc Crawford’s situation makes that unlikely) or the AHL head coach moves up and Derek King doesn’t have a lot of experience as a bench boss himself.  If things continue to go south for the rest of the season, there’s a chance a change would be made but it may not just be the coach in that situation.

mcase7187: Who or what can the B’s do to bring in help with scoring goals on any other line than the 1st line? Could they trade Krug for that help?

The idea of trading from their strength on the back end by moving Torey Krug, a pending UFA out, makes some sense on the surface.  However, there are a trio of reasons that I think GM Don Sweeney will opt not to do so.

The first is that I don’t think he has ruled out signing Krug to a new contract.  Yes, their cap situation is going to be tight even before factoring in a significant raise on his current $5.25MM AAV.  But he’s a big part of their core and taking away from that group to bring in another core piece doesn’t seem like something that Sweeney is all that inclined to do based on his previous moves.

I’m also not sure that Boston is prepared to give up Krug’s offensive ability to try to add to their offense.  Charlie McAvoy has shown flashes of his offensive upside but he has yet to score this season.  Zdeno Chara still is somewhat of a threat from the point but not to the extent he was in the past (and he still leads their back end in goals).  Krug’s offense is a dimension that they can ill afford to lose.

Lastly, the teams that are going to be selling the scoring talent aren’t going to be interested in Krug.  They’re going to want top picks and prospects, not a pending free agent.  While it’s certainly possible that the selling team could turn around and flip Krug for those assets, they’d likely just prefer to trade their own player for those instead of making two trades to get them.

Boston is going to be trying to push for another long playoff run.  It’s unlikely that they’ll be subtracting any key player off their roster even if it is to fill a need.

nk: The Islanders are dominant when they score 3+ goals. The question is can they consistently score three goals especially as the season progresses and the playoffs begin. Do you see LL making an impact trade for a top-six forward and would they be willing to make a move even if for a rental to give the Isles a legit shot at the ECF or even Cup finals?

Lou Lamoriello hasn’t shied away from making in-season splashes in the past when the time was right in the past.  We also know he was looking to make a big splash over the summer although that never came to fruition.  They have plenty of cap space (only Colorado has more among playoff contenders) so they won’t be constrained by needing teams to retain salary to facilitate a move which also gives them an advantage.

As long as the Islanders can hang around the top spot in the Metropolitan (more on that in the next question), Lamoriello will likely be thinking big as the deadline approaches.  A scoring by committee approach can have some success in the playoffs but deepening that committee would certainly help their chances.  I think he’d like to keep their young prospect core largely intact though which means he may be looking for a rental instead with the hopes that if that player fits in, he’s open to signing a long-term deal in the summer, just like he did with Ilya Kovalchuk in New Jersey back in 2010.

met man: The Metropolitan Division is very competitive this year. How do you see it playing out?

Washington has already started to separate themselves from the pack while the Islanders will also do so if they win their games in hand.  Assuming they stay healthy, that should be the top two finishers and I’d give the Capitals the advantage as things stand.

I’ve been very impressed with how Pittsburgh has hung around despite a growing list of injuries that seems to see a core piece go down every couple of weeks.  As those players return, they should be able to start to claw their way back up.  Right now, they’re tied with Carolina but I see them leapfrogging the Hurricanes.

Carolina’s goaltending still concerns me but they do enough other things well that they should be able to hold down a Wild Card spot at the very least.  If Philadelphia’s top forwards get back to producing the way they have in the past, they could jump past the Hurricanes but for now, they’ll stay in fifth and likely the final Wild Card position.

Currently, the Rangers and Blue Jackets are tied for sixth and neither team is likely to make a big playoff push.  That means both should sell but Columbus doesn’t have any expiring contracts to part with while New York has one of the top rentals in Kreider plus a couple others that could move.  I also expect the Blue Jackets’ young goalie tandem to improve in the second half which should be enough to put them sixth and the Rangers seventh.  As for the Devils, they’re looking pretty secure in that bottom spot, especially as they eventually start to sell off some of their other veterans.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Robin Lehner’s contract situation, Detroit’s struggles, Taylor Hall’s dwindling time in New Jersey, restricted free agents for the Rangers, the offside rule, and potential contract terminations.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s edition.

@K9GY: Why aren’t the Hawks getting Lehner a multi-year contract now? Crawford’s gone ….and so will Lehner if they don’t get er done! Then they’ll be searching for a #1 goalie….not the best position to be in!

The short answer as to why Chicago hasn’t got a new deal done for Lehner is simply because they’re not allowed to.  As Lehner is on a one-year contract, the Blackhawks can’t sign him to an extension until the calendar flips to 2020.

Even with that though, I’m not sure one will quickly be coming down the pipeline.  It’s not that they’re not happy with him but I’m not convinced that Corey Crawford’s time in the organization is going to be coming to an end.  Heading into play today, they’ve split the games 50-50 so far at 16 starts apiece.  (I know Lehner was out to start the year but still, it has been pretty close to a timeshare situation.)

I know sentimentality doesn’t always get received well but I truly believe they’d like to keep Crawford in the fold, albeit at a considerably lower price tag than his current $6MM.  In a perfect world, they probably wouldn’t mind keeping both, especially with Collin Delia struggling at AHL Rockford.  Is that type of situation something that Lehner is comfortable committing to on a longer-term basis?  I’m not saying that will make or break talks but Crawford’s situation is probably going to play a role at some point.  Having said all that, I think Lehner will eventually sign.

JDGoat: How is Detroit so bad this year, even with some pretty good building blocks on the team?

Let’s start with the goaltending.  The tandem of Jimmy Howard and Jonathan Bernier wasn’t the strongest last season and they have both been considerably worse this year.  When both of your goaltenders have save percentages that are below the league average for backup goalies, you’re in trouble.

To be fair to those two, their defense can best be described as patchwork.  Filip Hronek is a quality long-term piece but it does downhill from there.  Danny DeKeyser and Trevor Daley have missed more than half the season due to injuries while Mike Green and Patrik Nemeth have also missed time.  The younger blueliners that have been given a longer look as a result haven’t really panned out and to be fair, the veterans haven’t been great either.

Up front, they have some good pieces headlined by Anthony Mantha and Dylan Larkin but those aren’t top players on a contender.  The supporting cast hasn’t been great either.  Andreas Athanasiou has just five goals and is back in trade speculation as a result.  Frans Nielsen, who makes less than only Larkin among forwards, has just one assist in 29 games.  Their next highest paid forward in Justin Abdelkader hasn’t scored either.  There are a lot of underperforming veterans all around and that has hurt them drastically.

The good news is that there is help coming.  Filip Zadina looks better now than he did a year ago.  Joe Veleno has NHL upside.  So does Moritz Seider.  These are all first-round picks that are relatively close to making an impact and will almost certainly improve upon the performance of the veterans they’ll replace.  There are some building blocks in place but until they’re all NHL ready, Detroit is going to continue to struggle.

M34: Your best guess for Hall’s landing spot?

How about a potential sleeper suitor that could emerge?

DVail1979: As a Devils fan … should I be hoping our team can re-sign Hall or should I hope he ends up with someone like Colorado, Edmonton, (again), or Arizona? What kind of package should I expect back?

As things stand, it’s likely a first-round pick, a high-end prospect, another prospect, and a young NHL roster player that would need to be part of the package to land Hall.  If there’s retention or matching money involved, add another piece or two to the equation.

Before looking into possible landing spots, let’s discuss the potential of him staying in New Jersey which seems to be very minuscule at this point.  An in-season extension appears to be off the table and if Hall makes it to the open market, there will almost assuredly be other opportunities where he could step in and have a better shot at winning than he would with New Jersey.  I really liked what the Devils did this summer but nothing has worked and they look like they could be heading towards extending their rebuilding phase.  A top flight free agent probably won’t want to stick around for that.

Early speculation has Colorado as the favorites to land him and that makes a lot of sense.  They have the cap space to do a deal now without needing any contracts going the other way or salary retention.  They also have a strong stable of young players and quality prospects to deal from.  Tyson Jost feels like a good candidate for a change of scenery in a deal like this and someone like Conor Timmins could be in play as well.  If Hall was to agree to an extension (doubtful given the future cap crunch a couple of years from now and his agent’s history of pushing players to the market), I wouldn’t rule out Bowen Byram.  Not many teams have the assets to part with someone like that but they do.

I don’t see the Oilers being a good fit.  They could certainly use him but they’d need the Devils to retain and take some money back.  Their prospect pool isn’t the deepest to deal from either and someone like Jesse Puljujarvi would be viewed as a secondary (or tertiary) piece, not the key to a trade.  Arizona didn’t get the scoring boost they were seeking with the addition of Phil Kessel and adding someone like Hall would make an already good team that much better.  They also have a strong prospect pool that they could potentially deal from.  They’d need to offset some money to fit him in under the cap though and they are already using LTIR.

As for darkhorses, Boston would likely want to be involved but their cap situation would make it difficult.  Pittsburgh GM Jim Rutherford is going to want to make a splash and if Alex Galchenyuk is involved, that puts the salary matching close enough that it wouldn’t be an issue.  I could see the Islanders making a run as long as the in division/rival premium isn’t too high.  They took some big swings on the free agent market last season and the money is still there while their prospect depth is deep enough to move one or two pieces from.  Florida was really active over the summer and I could see GM Dale Tallon trying to make one more splash.  Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic reported earlier today (Twitter link) that they are among the teams that have inquired.

pitmanrich: Presuming Kreider is already gone can the Rangers re-sign all their RFA’s? Lemieux, Strome and DeAngelo have all done well under David Quinn’s system; do they take less to stay or has their play priced themselves out of New York?

Considering the Rangers basically forced Brendan Lemieux and Anthony DeAngelo to take one-year deals for this season by virtue of their cap situation and them not having arbitration rights, neither of them are going to be taking a hometown discount next summer.  As someone that is basically a bottom-six winger, I don’t think Lemieux will be looking at a big raise from his current $925K even with arbitration rights so they should be able to afford to keep him around.

DeAngelo is a much different situation though.  Assuming he keeps up his current pace, he could be looking at a 40-point season on the heels of a 30-point campaign.  Those numbers will look great to an arbitrator.  He’s also at $925K now but that could easily triple for next year if this keeps up.

Ryan Strome is going to be a very interesting case.  There’s no denying how well he has performed this season but is this a sign of things to come or an outlier?  His numbers in Edmonton weren’t great which is something management will undoubtedly bring up in contract talks.  He came into the season as a potential non-tender candidate with a $3.2MM qualifying offer on the horizon and while he’s probably done enough already to earn one, I don’t think he’s necessarily looking at a huge raise either.  A short-term deal similar to what they gave Ryan Spooner and Vladislav Namestnikov in recent years (two years, $4MM AAV) that provides a bit of a raise but doesn’t necessarily cripple them long-term either if Strome struggles is something they may be shooting for.

New York’s cap situation next summer is better than it has been the last couple of years so they should be able to afford these raises, especially if Chris Kreider is indeed moved over the next couple of months.

Cooperdooper7: Bruins lost another game recently on the RIDICULOUS offside review after a goal they scored… that’s now four games this year they have lost by losing a pivotal goal (or two), by a goal reviewed and changed that they score 30 seconds or more after the ticky-tack offside occurred. If the supposed offside does not occur directly in the result of the goal… why is it reviewable. This rule has got to be changed.

I suspect you’re far from the only one that’s frustrated with the fact that an offside that could have occurred 30 seconds (or more) before a goal was scored can still cause it to be taken off the board.  However, it’s tough to change the wording of the rule to limit the amount of time where the offside can directly affect the goal without making it less black and white than it is.

In theory, you could re-word it to say when the defending team gets possession, the ability to challenge for offside goes away.  But what constitutes possession?  A puck touch or does the defending team have to have someone with clear control on the stick?  And for how long?

You could try to re-word it to say that the ability to challenge is nullified after a certain amount of seconds elapse.  But then you run the risk of punishing teams that are shorthanded; it’s a lot easier to try to get the puck out at full strength than if you’re down a skater or two.  You also couldn’t limit the ability to challenge to the ensuing shot on goal as what if the rebound leads to the goal?  It’s not the initial shot but it’s related to that.

That’s why the rule is what it is.  Offside can be challenged until the puck clears the zone at which time it resets.  It’s not open to interpretation and there is no gray area.  It may not be the best system but it’s the fairest to enforce.

riverrat64: Where do you see players such as Bobby Ryan, Ilya Kovalchuk who are not playing for some time for team or personal reasons, released, signing elsewhere for less money, buyouts, trade, etc?

I don’t see Ryan going anywhere for the duration of his contract.  He has little incentive to accept a mutual contract termination as he stands no chance of recouping the $15MM in salary he’s owed in the two years after 2019-20.  He’s also currently in the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program so even if he wanted to go the termination route, he couldn’t.  He’ll be staying in Ottawa for a while yet.

Kovalchuk is a different case.  Once the rest of his signing bonus is paid out this weekend, he’ll only be foregoing the pro-rated league minimum salary for the rest of this season (plus $4.25MM in 2020-21).  He’ll have big offers to go back home that would basically cover what he’d be giving up so unlike Ryan, there isn’t much financial risk.

I think there would be some NHL interest though to the point where he’d get more than the minimum from his eventual new team.  Things haven’t worked out with the Kings but in the right environment where he’s in the right role as more of a supporting player, he could still help a team.  Boston had interest before and they still need scoring depth so they’d be a contender for his services.  I’d throw Dallas into the mix as long as they’re willing to go into using LTIR to do so as they also need a jump offensively.  Given Lou Lamoriello’s history with Kovalchuk, it’s hard to imagine the Islanders wouldn’t kick the tires here either.

Worth noting, even if (or more likely, when) the Kings terminate Kovalchuk’s deal, they still will be on the hook for the entire $6.25MM AAV for this season and next since they gave him a multi-year contract past the age of 35; those deals stay on the books no matter what.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

As December rolls along and we get closer to the NHL Christmas break, teams are starting to realize just what they are. Some are accepting their fate as a team outside of the playoff picture, making names pop up in trade speculation all over the league. Others know that they have a squad good enough to compete, but might want a little addition for the stretch run.

With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of our mailbag. You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. Make sure you get your questions in early and we’ll try to get through as many as possible when the mailbag runs on the weekend.

If you missed our last edition it was split into two parts which you can read here and here. In the first, Brian tackled questions about the San Jose Sharks’ slow start, the Toronto Maple Leafs backup goaltending situation, and the Boston Bruins’ secondary scoring depth. The second part looked at the future for Kyle Turris, Ilya Kovalchuk and Henrik Lundqvist.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Henrik Lundqvist’s future in New York, what’s next for the Rangers, piecing together a Kyle Turris trade, the Ilya Kovalchuk situation with the Kings, and what the Islanders should be looking to add by the trade deadline.

met man: Seems to me that the Rangers have a decision to make in regards to goaltending. What is your take on Lundqvist’s future? The 2 Russian kids have played great (Georgiev with NYR and Shesterkin with Hartford), I hope they don’t trade one of the kids.

It won’t just be the Rangers that have a say in Lundqvist’s future.  The veteran has a no-move clause, one that he’s believed to have invoked a couple of years ago when they were considering looking into moving him at the trade deadline.  It’s certainly possible that they’ll approach things in a similar manner in February and see if he’s willing to be dealt now.  If so, that would solve the logjam but if he says no, I have a hard time thinking they’d try to force him out either.  While his salary for next season ($1MM signing bonus and $4.5MM in salary) is lower than his AAV, it’s still certainly high enough that he’s not going to want to walk away from it.

New York’s still in a pretty good situation.  Alexandar Georgiev and Igor Shesterkin appear to be a pretty good goaltending tandem of the not-too-distant future.  Georgiev’s a restricted free agent this summer but his NHL track record isn’t substantial enough that he’s going to break the bank on his next deal which will probably be a short-term pact.  Lundqvist is still going to have enough playing time to help keep Georgiev’s AAV low so they’re fine in that regard.  Knowing that he’ll have the inside track to take over as the starter (or at least the 1A role in a platoon) should be enough to keep Georgiev content next season as well in another timeshare situation.

Shesterkin’s case is a little trickier but still pretty favorable.  He’s signed through 2020-21 on his entry-level deal so when his deal runs out, Lundqvist’s contract will also be up so there’s his full-time NHL spot (unless Lundqvist decides at 39 that he wants to keep playing in New York, a scenario that seems unlikely at this point knowing that the Rangers will probably be wanting to move on).  Yes, the European Assignment Clause is a factor but it shouldn’t make or break things.  If Lundqvist is still around next season, it’s possible (if not probable) that Shesterkin would rather go back to the KHL for the year but he’ll know his NHL spot will be there for 2021-22.

The Rangers don’t have to do much of anything when it comes to their goaltending.  They’ll have to re-sign Georgiev in the summer but that’s the only guaranteed decision they’ll need to make.  If Lundqvist decides he wants to finish out his career somewhere else and try to chase a championship, they’ll probably try to accommodate that request but if not, they can easily let things play out and then set up the Georgiev-Shesterkin tandem for 2021-22 and beyond.

acarneglia: What’s the next move for the Rangers?

Short-term, I don’t expect much of anything on the trade front from them.  They will want to find out what Chris Kreider’s price to get an early extension done and we’re probably a couple of months away from really getting a sense of what that’s going to ultimately cost and whether or not the Rangers are willing to pay that.

I think they’d like to move out Marc Staal but I also think they’ve wanted to do so for a couple of years now so I wouldn’t count on that actually happening.  Ryan Lindgren and Libor Hajek have had their good and bad moments on the back end but if they’re still in evaluation mode for their youngsters, clearing a spot for both to play regularly would be ideal.

I wonder if Jesper Fast could be someone that’s on the move before too long.  He’s a pending UFA and it’s far from a guarantee that he’s in New York’s plans long-term.  As Kaapo Kakko eventually pushes for more playing time, it may very well come at Fast’s expense which would hurt his trade value.  Accordingly, moving him sooner than later may be the wise move.  Having said that though, even that move is probably a while away.

JDGoat: What would a potential Kyle Turris trade look like?

It all depends on Nashville’s appetite towards taking another long-term overpriced contract back.  Strictly from a financial perspective, one of those needs to be included in the deal as even a low-spending team with cap space isn’t going to want to absorb $6MM for this season and four more years after that.  If a team strikes out in free agency next summer, maybe it’s an option then but not now.  The quality of the player on that bad contract coming the other way would ultimately shape the rest of the deal.

If it’s a swap of underachieving top-six forwards, probably not a whole lot has to be done from there.  (I’d prefer a defenseman from Nashville’s standpoint but there aren’t many, if any, feasible blueline candidates that could be included.)  If the Predators are taking the weaker player back, then a pick or prospect balances out the deal.  It seems rather simplistic but teams aren’t going to be actively pursuing him which makes any potential trade rather formulaic.

To be honest, I don’t think there’s a big appetite to move him.  I know his name is out there and because of the contract they’ll listen to any potential options but Turris is still serviceable as a top-six player if injuries arise.  Whoever they’d get back for him probably won’t have quite the upside he does.  Nashville’s a win-now team so they’re not going to want to take a talent downgrade unless they’re freeing up a lot of cap room (which probably won’t happen).  Getting out of that contract makes sense in theory but in reality, it may not be all that practical.

Winter in Colorado: Do you think Kovalchuk is tradable after his Dec 15 signing bonus is paid by LA?

This question (which was posed a couple of weeks ago) is certainly an interesting one now with everything that has happened over the last few days.  Kovalchuk’s tradability after his bonus is paid is one of the big talking points around the league now.

At the very least, having the bonus paid will help his trade value, as limited as it is.  The Kings can’t score and they’ve benched someone that’s tied for fourth on the team in scoring.  If that doesn’t raise a bunch of red flags to any potential suitors, I don’t know what will.

Nonetheless, there are a couple of scenarios where I think he could go.  The first is the usual swap of bad contracts but the key will be finding one that has two years remaining at a similar price tag to Kovalchuk as the Kings won’t want a longer bad deal on the books.

The other is Ottawa eating the cap hit.  That one particularly becomes palatable if Kovalchuk decides to ‘retire’ from the NHL once again; as he’s on a 35-plus contract, that cap hit remains through next season.  At this point, it certainly feels like Kovalchuk will wait for the bonus to be paid before doing anything and it wouldn’t surprise me if he was to step away after that and head for the KHL once more.  The Senators could take on the cap hit without paying out any money and likely get some other assets for doing so while Los Angeles would get some needed cap flexibility.  It’s not an exciting move but it’s doable.

WalterNYR: It’s early but do you see the Islanders doing something at the deadline? Someone like Hoffman to help the offense would be nice.

If they continue to hold a top-three spot in the Metropolitan Division, they’ll likely be looking to add.  GM Lou Lamoriello hasn’t shied away from adding to his teams in the past and the rental market is a good place to look at the deadline.

You’ve certainly identified the right type of player that they should be looking for, someone that can provide them with some secondary scoring.  The Islanders are very strong defensively but are in the bottom third of the league in goals scored.  Mike Hoffman from Florida would be a very good fit but I’m not sure the Panthers will be sellers at the deadline.  They’re currently in a top-three spot in the Atlantic but even if they slide out of that, they’ll still be battling for a Wild Card seed.

It’s interesting – some of the better rentals play for rivals (Kreider with the Rangers and Taylor Hall with the Devils) so they’re probably out of the equation as well.  Tyler Toffoli’s name has been out there and the Kings will likely move him by the deadline as a pending free agent.   Beyond him, it’ll be a waiting game for a while to see which teams eventually slip out of the playoff race and start to sell but adding more production up front should be a priority for Lamoriello in the coming months.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Gabriel Landeskog’s injury, San Jose’s early struggles, the potential (or lack thereof) for movement in Toronto, Nikolai Prokhorkin’s less-than-ideal situation, the allure of the international free agent market, and Boston’s secondary scoring troubles.  If your question didn’t appear here, watch for it in next week’s edition.

M34: Over-under on games Landy misses?

When they announced the lower-body injury late last month, Colorado head coach Jared Bednar indicated that Landeskog’s injury was “longer than week-to-week”.  So we know that all of November (14 games) plus the final one in October is the absolute minimum.  If it was a four-to-six week thing, Bednar probably wouldn’t have made that comment so it’s safe to rule out the first half of December at the very least (another seven games).  At this stage, I’d be surprised if he played at all in December so let’s rule out the entire month (13 games in total).

That puts the total at 28 games missed and with a light month of January (nine games) on their schedule, I’d take the over on 28.  While he’s an important player for them, they’ll want to be cautious.

JDGoat: Is there anything to suggest San Jose can turn it around before it becomes too late?

If you’re looking for reasons to be optimistic about the Sharks’ chances, I’d look at their defense.  Brent Burns is doing fine offensively but is struggling more than usual in his own end.  He can be better.  Erik Karlsson is off to a tough start.  He can be better.  Marc-Edouard Vlasic is off to a really rough start.  He can be better.  If those three (who combine for over 72 minutes per game or about 60% of their total blueline time), their goaltending duo of Martin Jones and Aaron Dell will get better.

Up front, Logan Couture isn’t going to play at a 10-goal pace all season long.  Timo Meier may not reach 66 points again but he should be able to get past 40 at the very least and he’s not even playing at that level right now.  While Joe Thornton is clearly at the back of his career, I’m not going to completely write him off either.

The potential for this roster is still pretty good even though they’re an older group.  If they did nothing and won seven of their next 10 games, I wouldn’t be the slightest bit surprised.  If they go 3-7 in that stretch though, then it might be too late with all due respect to what St. Louis did just last season.

@JoshVesh: You see Marincin getting picked? And where do the Leafs go for their backup goaltender? Maybe a trade by Saturday to clear room for Hyman?

Since this was asked, we now know that Martin Marincin has once again cleared waivers, paving the way for him to be among those that are sent to the minors when Zach Hyman gets the green light to return.  That didn’t come as much of a surprise considering he has cleared multiple times in the past and most teams have a player like him (a fringe piece with a fair bit of NHL experience over the years) in their system already.

As for the backup goalie situation, I don’t think they’re going anywhere beyond looking down the bench at who they have in Michael Hutchinson.  They don’t have the cap room to spend much more than the league minimum they’re paying him and at that price tag, it’s not as if there are plenty of notable upgrades available.  Yes, he’s off to a rough start but playing him in the second half of four back-to-backs against the three top-scoring teams in the East (Washington is first while Boston and Montreal are tied with Toronto for second) put him in a really tough situation.  Give him a couple of easier starts in non-back-to-backs (which they’ll need to do if they want to rest Frederik Andersen a bit more) and he’ll probably provide some better results.

I don’t expect a trade in the short-term when it comes to activating Hyman.  It’s not as if Toronto didn’t know this was coming over the summer and they structured their cap situation to be this way where they could keep as much of their talent together as they could, even though it comes with the risk of carrying minimal depth and no cap room to work with.  GM Kyle Dubas is going to want to see how this group looks when fully healthy (something they haven’t been able to see yet given the injuries) and then if tweaks need to be made (or cap space has to be opened up), a trade in the second half of the season becomes likely.

MixtureBill: Thoughts on Prokhorkin in LA? The team is floundering and McLellan seems to refuse to put him in the lineup. When does his European assignment clause expire, and do you see him returning to the KHL before that happens?

There generally isn’t an expiration date on a European Assignment Clause though the starting effective time can vary.  It generally reads that if the player isn’t in the NHL at a specific point in time, they can trigger the assignment.  Considering they brought Prokhorkin up on October 18th and have only played him twice since then, it’s reasonably safe to infer that the initial trigger date was somewhere around October 18th.  Having a waiver-exempt player frequently sitting as a healthy scratch isn’t ideal for anyone.  But as long as he’s on the NHL roster, he can’t force a reassignment.

It’s clear that Todd McLellan isn’t ready to trust him yet and that Prokhorkin wants nothing to do with playing in the AHL so there’s a stalemate at play.  From an outside perspective, I think it would be worthwhile trying to give him the odd game here and there since he did enter the season as one of their more intriguing prospects.  Generally speaking, it makes sense to keep players fresh in case they’re needed when injuries strike and let’s face it, it’s not as if the Kings are doing all that well in the first place as you alluded to.  As their expected selloff happens, that should create an opportunity for him but he’s going to have to make a quick impact if he wants to lock down a regular role.

@CanuckJake16: Do 1st time players from the KHL fall under a different cap salary system, a cheaper option to sign “experienced” players under a tight cap???

The entry-level system is a little different for international-based players (not just those from the KHL).  While a non-European player would see his ELC eligibility expire at 25, any European that signs his first NHL contract at or before 27 is subject to a one-year ELC that is capped at a base salary of $925K before performance bonuses.  That’s why Ilya Mikheyev in Toronto is capped at $925K while Vadim Shipachyov (who two years ago signed with Vegas at 30), was able to get a $4.5MM AAV though the deal ultimately came off the books when he ‘retired’ from the NHL two years ago today.

Every year, there are a handful of players that are signed with your idea in mind, someone that has a bit more experience than a prospect in the minors does but they’re both subject to the same contract restrictions.  I think it’s fair to suggest that a lot more haven’t worked out than those that have.  Nonetheless, it’s an interesting market inefficiency that some cap-strapped teams are likely going to try to continue to mine.  Of course, the top players may prefer to stay at home where their earning potential is higher and then try to come over when they’re not subject to ELC restrictions.

sovietcanuckistanian: The Bruins (lack of) secondary scoring seems to be rearing its ugly head again. The pace the Perfection Line is on is nice but unsustainable. Krejci coming back is a start but do you think they have an internal candidate to plug/play and maybe alleviate some of their woes or do they have to look outside the organization for help? I only ask because Backes is on the IR for now and depending on his length of stay there they may need to explore getting actual help? Thoughts?

Secondary scoring in Boston has been a need for a while now which is why they’ve had to trade for help the last couple of trade deadlines.  Undoubtedly, they hope that younger players like Danton Heinen and Anders Bjork would be able to step up and that a full season from Charlie Coyle would help.  Those three have combined for a line of seven goals and six assists in 40 games which isn’t what they were looking for.

They’re not a team that’s swimming in cap space and with the eventual return of Kevan Miller and John Moore, they’re probably not going to want to make a move until those two get back and their cap situation (without LTIR) becomes a little more certain.  That means for the next little while at least, they’ll be testing from within.

Zachary Senyshyn and Cameron Hughes have had recent looks.  I could see Jack Studnicka getting a chance as well before too long.  Peter Cehlarik is up now and while he hasn’t produced much in the past during his various stints, he should get a bit of a longer leash to work with.  At the end of the day, I think they’ll be active on the trade front for that extra scoring help but that probably won’t be for another couple of months.  Until then, they’ll be rotating through internal candidates unless one of them takes the opportunity and runs with it.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

We’re now more than a month into the 2019-20 regular season and the NHL has provided surprise and shock on a daily basis. Some of the most incredible goals of the last decade have been scored early on, including Andrei Svechnikov’s latest contribution to lacrosse lore. With teams starting to understand what they have to work with, trade talks will soon start to heat up with bigger and bigger names hearing their names floating around.

With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of our mailbag. You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. Make sure you get your questions in early and we’ll try to get through as many as possible when the mailbag runs on the weekend.

If you missed our last edition it was split into two parts which you can read here and here. In the first part, Brian gave Barry Trotz and the New York Islanders the benefit of the doubt and they have responded with a league-best nine-game win streak—you’re welcome, Islanders fans. The second part took a look at the Buffalo Sabres situation on defense and examined how the salary cap is determined.

Topics in this edition of the mailbag include San Jose’s goaltending situation, Minnesota’s veterans, Buffalo’s blueline, salary cap projections, early-season surprises, and whether or not some notable trades could be on the horizon.

JDGoat: Will San Jose have to look at an upgrade in net or are they going to be forced to stick with Jones?

I think they’d like to look for an upgrade between the pipes but they’re not really in a position to do from a financial standpoint.  With less than $1MM in cap room, they’d basically be forced to try to match money in any trade they make and finding a team that’s willing to part with a goaltender that’s an upgrade on Martin Jones that makes close to the same money is going to be tricky to put it lightly.

Instead, their upgrade may have to come in the form of a replacement goalie for Aaron Dell.  Technically, they were looking for that last season and one never really came to fruition.  However, with Dell being in the final year of his deal with a more manageable $1.9MM AAV (compared to $6MM for Jones), that would be an easier move to make.  They wouldn’t be looking at getting someone that could realistically push for the starting role at that price tag (his cap hit plus some of their remaining room) but an upgrade there might be worth a few points in the standings over the course of the season if they find a swap sooner than later.

Generally speaking, unless they find a way to shed a sizable contract without taking as big of one back, GM Doug Wilson is going to be forced to look for marginal upgrades this season.  That’s not particularly exciting compared to a year ago but with their cap situation being what it is, it’s all they can really do.

jb10000lakes: Odds that one, or both Suter and Parise forgo their No Trade clauses to get out of Minny (these next couple years are going to be ugly), and how much would the Wild be willing to eat for them to do so?

Considering Zach Parise has already said that he’s not looking to be part of a rebuilding process, I’d put the odds of him being willing to waive as quite high.  However, it’s not quite that simple.  Is new GM Bill Guerin going to be willing to retain a sizable portion of his contract plus assume the risk of salary cap recapture if Parise opts to not play the final few years of his heavily back-diving contract?  Over the final three years of his deal, his salary is a combined $4MM so the recapture potential is high for Minnesota and non-existent for the acquiring team.  If you have to sell low and assume the risk on the back end of his contract as well, you might be better off keeping him.  Now, if Parise rebounds and boosts his trade value to the point where they get some quality picks or young players for him, then a move is more palatable.

Ryan Suter is a bit of a different case.  I don’t sense that their desire to trade him would be all that high unless he wants to waive his NTC.  I suspect the odds of him doing so would be a bit lower than Parise as he’ll still be playing a premium role in a rebuild.  I still don’t think they would need to retain anything to get value in return though.  Quality defensemen are hard to find and while a $7.538MM AAV will be tough to stomach in the final few years of his deal, he still has several above-average seasons left in him.  If Minnesota has to retain anything and assume the same recapture risk as Parise, it wouldn’t be a great move for them unless doing so was to bring back a high-end young talent.

@djay6: Could we see the Sabres moving a D-man?

At some point, yes, a move is likely.  For me, I’d hold off on doing so though until Brandon Montour comes back and gets into game shape.  Yes, that might push Henri Jokiharju to the press box for a few games which isn’t ideal for a youngster but it would be the safe play.  See how Montour fares with Rasmus Ristolainen and Colin Miller on the right side and then figure out which one is the most expendable.  It’s starting to seem like the odds of Ristolainen being the one to move are decreasing and speculatively, I wonder if Montour could be the one to go now.

The market for him would be strong considering it took a first-round pick and Brendan Guhle to get him back in February so a similar price tag would be expected here.  He’s also due for a sizable raise over the offseason at the time where from a team perspective, a long-term pact that buys out some UFA years would be desirable.  Montour isn’t likely to have a big enough role as long as Ristolainen plays heavy minutes and Miller logs more than what most third pairing options are so he probably would hesitate to sign long-term with Buffalo for now.

Of course, if another defenseman goes down with an injury over the next few weeks, that could all change in a flash.

Gerald Arrington: Gavin, is there a list of by years that have the NHL Salary Cap figures increase, have messaged before as I had seen it on a story regarding the Seattle Expansion about 3-4 months ago, which indicated that salary cap will rise when they enter league, I believe you wrote the story, maybe wrong, with it at $81.5 million , and rise each year till Seattle it will be $85 million per team ,what about the years in between , by listing by year. Thanks!

First, here’s the salary cap history by year:

2005-06: $39MM
2006-07: $44MM
2007-08: $50.3MM
2008-09: $56.7MM
2009-10: $56.8MM
2010-11: $94.3MM
2011-12: $64.3MM
2012-13: $60MM ($70.2MM pro-rated)
2013-14: $64.3MM
2014-15: $69MM
2015-16: $71.4MM
2016-17: $73MM
2017-18: $75MM
2018-19: $79.5MM
2019-20: $81.5MM

As you can see, the changes have been all over the board since it was instituted.  There’s no fixed plan in place that says the cap will be $85MM or any fixed amount by the time Seattle reaches the NHL.  It all depends on the increase in hockey related revenues (commonly referred to as HRR) and how much, if any, of the 5% inflator the NHLPA decides to use.  While at the beginning, using the maximum was common (which is why there was a big jump in some of the early years), the high escrow rate has caused them to lessen that in an effort to get that under control.  Personally, I’d be surprised if the Upper Limit goes up by more than $2MM for 2020-21.  It’ll probably be a similar increase the following year as well so yes, an $85MM salary cap is probably a reasonable ballpark projection at this point by the time Seattle debuts but nothing for that season has been finalized just yet.

acarneglia: Teams that are the biggest surprises/disappointments in each division?

I’ve tackled some prediction questions like this in previous mailbags so rather than reiterate those thoughts here, instead, here’s some commentary on the surprises and disappointments over the first few weeks of the year.

Atlantic: Buffalo has been a pleasant surprise early on.  Yes, they had a stretch of games last season before completely collapsing and it could happen again.  However, I think they’re better up front and on the back end while having a better coach.  Perhaps they’re not a top-three team but they could very well be in the Wild Card race which didn’t seem likely just a few weeks ago.  There really hasn’t been a big disappointment just yet.  Florida has underwhelmed a bit but with a new coach (and therefore new system) in place, that’s not entirely shocking.

Metropolitan: Columbus has been more competitive than I expected early on.  I don’t expect them to continue to hover around the playoff picture as the season progresses but they’ve been a bit of a surprise so far.  On the flip side, New Jersey was my pick to surprise in terms of pushing for a playoff spot but they have floundered so far.

Central: I thought Colorado would get off to a strong start but I didn’t think they’d be this strong out of the gate.  There’s plenty of cause for optimism there.  Dallas and Minnesota have both been big disappointments though.  The Stars were a trendy pick to be a sneaky contender and with good reason following their offseason moves but they have just one win so far.  Meanwhile, I figured the Wild would dip a bit in the standings but they would at least still be competitively mediocre most nights.  But instead, they’re getting completely outclassed routinely.

Pacific: No one could have seen Edmonton’s hot start coming, not even the Oilers.  I question the sustainability of it but after a couple of disappointing years, it’s good to see some positives from them early on.  Anaheim’s quick start is arguably even more of a surprise (and happens to be led by one of Edmonton’s old coaches).  I’m not sold on that holding up but John Gibson can really carry a team.  San Jose’s slow start is a surprise on the other side of the coin.  That team has a lot more talent than their record early on and while I expect them to turn it around, they could be soon reaching the point that the Kings did a year ago where the drop off from contender to the fringes happens quicker than expected.

JDGoat: Do you think there’s an early struggling team that might try and make a “desperation” move to try and get things going?

Teams will undoubtedly try – I’m sure several are already actively seeking trades.  (I’d have Dallas and New Jersey while Pittsburgh is known to want to move a defenseman though that wouldn’t qualify as a desperation move.)  However, there’s a reason that the trade market is generally silent at this point of the season.  Most teams want to see what they have, what they need, and what they can afford to part with.  They also want to evaluate early performances in the AHL; are some players ready for a full-time promotion?  It’s a little too early to make that call when the minor league season is only a few weeks old.

The other issue is the salary cap.  A lot of teams are tight to the Upper Limit so they lack the cap room to make any substantial changes.  Those teams need to make ‘money in, money out’ deals and those are difficult to make.  There may be a tweak trade or two in the coming weeks but the bigger deals that would qualify as a shakeup are still a ways away from happening.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

The 2019-20 NHL regular season is underway and already there have been some surprises and disappointments. Most shocking perhaps are the injuries that have occurred early on, including Adam Larsson, Evgeni Malkin and Nate Schmidt. That has already made the rumor mill start churning over who will be the first to make a big trade—unless of course Vladislav Namestnikov heading to Ottawa is considered that already.

With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of our mailbag. You can submit your query by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. Make sure you get your questions in early and we’ll try to get through as many as possible when the mailbag runs on the weekend.

If you missed our last edition you can read it right here. Brian tackled questions regarding potential waiver candidates, correctly suggesting that Pheonix Copley, Casey DeSmith, Charlie Lindgren and Eric Comrie could all be available at the end of training camp. He also explained why Julius Honka was the only then-unsigned RFA that had a real chance of a long dispute, did his best at explaining the complicated cap situation the Toronto Maple Leafs created this summer, and gave his predictions on how the Metropolitan Division standings would look at the end of the year.