PHR Mailbag

Topics in this edition of the mailbag include what’s next for the Rangers, David Backes’ future in Boston, teams that could surprise, possible trade candidates over the next month, and Ottawa’s lack of spending.  If your question isn’t covered here, check back with last week’s column.

met man: Now that the dust has settled, do the Rangers trade or extend Chris Kreider?  What about Namestnikov?

It’s probably the status quo for the time being when it comes to Kreider.  The team has indicated that they expect him in training camp which was a subtle way to say let’s stop with the trade speculation.  That probably won’t happen though.  They’re going to have a hard enough time fitting him under the Upper Limit this season at his current $3.625MMMM rate.  Add a couple million to that on a long-term extension and the big penalty from the Kevin Shattenkirk buyout and it’s very difficult to see them being able to fit Kreider in a year from now even if the salary cap goes up a little bit.  That’s always going to keep him trade speculation.

I don’t expect a quick resolution to his case though.  They’ll find a way to get under the cap for 2019-20 without needing to move him and they’ll see how things play out.  If they get back into playoff contention, they’ll certainly consider holding on to him and try to use that as a case for why he should take a bit less than he could get elsewhere to stick around.  If they’re a bubble team or out of the postseason picture though, then a trade near the deadline becomes the likeliest outcome where he’d be one of the more prominent players available.

As for Namestnikov, they’ve been trying to move him for a while now with no takers.  I happen to think there’s still some potential upside with him – he’s only 26 and one year removed from a 22-goal, 48-point season.  Sure, it hasn’t worked out too well for him in New York but a change of scenery could get him back closer to 15 goals and 35 to 40 points.  Is that great value for $4MM?  Not really but he’d still be a useful player.  If the Rangers are open to retaining some of his contract, they could find a taker for him although the return wouldn’t be a strong one.  But that might be enough to get them back in cap compliance for next season so it may be a hit worth taking.

pitmanrich: Considering the moves the Rangers have made this summer and the high draft picks they’ve used over last two drafts is the rebuild over? And if so, how much pressure will coach Quinn be under to get results this season?

I don’t think it’s fair to say that the rebuild is entirely over.  This is still a team that’s going to be icing a lot of youngsters in prominent roles and with that, there will be inevitable growing pains, even with the additions of Artemi Panarin and Jacob Trouba.  This is a team that should certainly be improved and I don’t think I’d be overly shocked if they got into the playoff mix as there isn’t going to be a lot of separation between the third-place team in the Metropolitan and one that finds itself on the outside looking in at the postseason picture.  Accordingly, I would say that their rebuild has been accelerated but it’s still a year too early to call it over.

With that in mind, expectations shouldn’t be too high on David Quinn.  The priority for this season should be getting steady development out of players like Kaapo Kakko, Vitali Kravtsov, Filip Chytil, Lias Andersson, Brett Howden, and Adam Fox.  That’s the eventual young nucleus of this team with their high-priced veterans helping to give them enough of a push to get them over the top.  At least that’s the plan.  If their youngsters show signs of improvement towards living up to their draft billing, it’s a successful season regardless of where they finish in the standings.  Those are the results in which Quinn should be evaluated on.

mcase7187: Could the Bruins package a deal like David B?

It all depends on what the package includes.  Is it possible that Backes could be traded?  Sure.  If Milan Lucic (whose contract is twice as long) can be dealt, then Backes certainly could as well.  The question becomes, what is Boston going to part with to entice a team to take him?

With several teams needing to free up cap room in the coming weeks, it’s not a great time to be trying to move Backes.  Boston has a good core of young players to work with but GM Don Sweeney has been hesitant to move them out.  That’s certainly understandable but if he’s not willing to attach a sizable sweetener, it certainly complicates things.

With Backes now being able to be sent to the minors (his no-move clause converts to a partial no-trade now), it’s possible that Boston just opts to send him down and free up $1.075MM in cap room if they don’t bring someone up to replace him.  If not, about the only way that I could see him moving is if they are open to taking another bad contract in return.  Unless that contract carries a lesser cap hit, I have a hard time thinking a trade will happen.

Mr. Mark: Your way too early prediction of a team who could be better than most are anticipating and your team who won’t be as good as most are anticipating.

I think New Jersey is a team that could turn it around pretty quickly and they haven’t received a lot of attention this summer.  They’re only a year removed from being a playoff team and a healthy Taylor Hall will be huge.  P.K. Subban represents a big upgrade on the back end.  Jack Hughes should make an impact this season and Wayne Simmonds, though on the downside of his career, should still help as well.  Nico Hischier should continue to improve.  Cory Schneider finished up better down the stretch and fared well at the Worlds, a sign that he’s now fully recovered from his hip issues.  Add all of these elements together and you have a team that’s quietly poised to make some noise.

On the flip side of it, I could see this being the year that Pittsburgh starts to slide.  They were vulnerable last season and it’s fair to suggest that they’ve taken a step back this summer in terms of talent.  Their core is getting up there in age and I have concerns about Matt Murray being the type of goalie that can carry a team if need be.  I wouldn’t be shocked if they finished in a top-three spot in the Metropolitan Division (it’s hard to bet against Sidney Crosby) but at the same time, missing the playoffs entirely is something that I could certainly see happening.

jdawglasalle: Who do you believe are the biggest trade candidates that will likely be traded before pre-season starts?

Beyond Namestnikov, Pittsburgh’s Nick Bjugstad stands out as a good trade candidate.  The Penguins need to free up some money and he didn’t have a big impact after being acquired from Florida.  He’s still young enough and only a year removed from a career season.  Although his $4.1MM AAV is on the higher side, I think some team will take a chance on him.

As for an under-the-radar candidate, I’ll pick Buffalo’s Zemgus Girgensons.  The Sabres could stand to free up a bit of room and he basically has had the same year the last four seasons.  A change of scenery could do him some good and I think Sabres could still get a bit of value for him.

Originally, I had T.J. Brodie pegged as a likely candidate but with Juuso Valimaki out long-term, that’s the end of that.  They still need to free up some cap room for a Matthew Tkachuk contract so I’d put the odds of Michael Frolik moving a bit higher now.  He’s a useful player, albeit at a fairly high price tag ($4.3MM) and with his limited usage last season, it’s hard to imagine him invoking his partial no-trade clause if a trade was to present itself.  I don’t know if it’ll get done before the start of the exhibition season but if not by then, probably soon after.

melkor77: What happens to all the RFA’s waiting for Marner to sign when he holds out the remainder of 2019?

First, I don’t see Mitch Marner opting to sit out the entire season.  That would be too much money to leave on the table.  They’d get a one-year deal done before it comes to that.  Having said that, I think it’s very possible he’s unsigned when the puck drops on regular season action (and he won’t be the only one).

It’s a waiting game right now but eventually, someone’s going to blink.  That will probably come close to the start of training camp when one or two sign.  A couple more will go at some point during the preseason.  That will leave probably three-to-five unsigned into the season.  It’s easy to say let’s wait for Marner as he’ll likely top the market in mid-August.  It’s a lot harder to do so once the games are being played.

ThePriceWasRight: I know the talk was that the league would not step in on the Sens ownership situation as long as cheques were not bouncing, but seeing as that it’s quite likely the ACTUAL dollars he is paying significantly is less than the floor, when does the PA step in to say that this could limit future player earnings.

I don’t think the NHLPA would have a leg to stand on here.  It’s not as if Ottawa’s low spending is going to negatively affect the salary cap as that’s based on total league revenues, not actual cap spending.  I think their decision to keep players like Marian Gaborik and Clarke MacArthur around will actually help future player earnings when it comes to the Senators.  Young players that wouldn’t be getting the playing time if they were actually trying to be competitive will get better numbers than they otherwise would have which will yield better second contracts.  (At least it should, in theory.)

Sure, it’s possible that other teams could be motivated by Ottawa’s thriftiness but it’s hard to think they’d be willing to go to quite this extreme.  The PR from doing so is quite negative and while bad press is something that the Senators aren’t too worried about, most owners are.  If others did follow suit, then it’d become something that would come up in CBA discussions a year from now, perhaps by shrinking the gap between the floor and the midpoint.

It’s not a pretty situation in Ottawa at the moment but as long as they spend the minimum that they’re required to, there isn’t much the league or the NHLPA can do about it.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Kevin Shattenkirk’s deal in Tampa Bay, Samuel Girard’s long-term extension, Colorado’s plans for Mikko Rantanen, predictions for some of the other top restricted free agents, and when Boston may finish their offseason signings.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next week’s edition.

CoachWall: Shattenkirk was “pissed off” about the way it ended in New York. Based on his performance over the past 2 seasons, does he anything left in the tank to help the Bolts?

I really liked Tampa Bay’s pickup of Shattenkirk.  Is he the type of player that can log 22+ minutes a night like the Rangers were hoping (and paying him to do)?  No.  But the Lightning aren’t paying him to be that player, nor do they really need him to fill that big of a role.

Shattenkirk gives them some much-needed right-side depth as the strength of their back end lies on the left, even if Mikhail Sergachev shifts over.  That will probably result in him getting a bit of time in their top four and anytime you can get someone that can do that for $1.75MM, it’s a good contract.

I expect Shattenkirk will see some regular power play time on the second unit as well and with the firepower that Tampa has, he could put up some points.  If he can average 16-18 minutes a night and pick up 20-25 points (expectations that are relatively realistic), he’ll certainly be able to help them.

M34: What has Girard done or shown that got him 7×5?! Is Sakic going to regret it a few years when Mack and Rantanen are on the books for big money and Makar needs a new deal?

I was caught off guard by the price tag when the signing initially came down but I’ve come around to it a little bit having had some more time to think about it.

Is Girard a $5MM defenseman right now?  Not yet.  However, as is often the case with these type of early extensions, GM Joe Sakic is paying for potential and projecting that Girard will be worth more than that down the road where the deal will eventually become a bargain.  I’m inclined to agree with that in this case.

Girard is already a top-four defender.  While his offensive numbers don’t stand out, that should change with Tyson Barrie no longer in the fold.  (Even with Cale Makar joining on a full-time basis, some more offensive minutes should fall Girard’s way.)  Assuming that happens, that would have given him some higher leverage next summer to the point where it would cost a lot more than $5MM to do a long-term deal.

The hope is obviously that Girard will be outperforming that deal as some of their younger core needs new deals down the road and that surplus value would come in handy at that time.  But Sakic will need to spend carefully, that’s for sure.  Speaking of which…

coachdit: Thoughts on Sakic giving Rantanen 12 mil AAV and sticking it to the cap-strapped teams that have stud unsigned RFAs? The Bolts played their hand with Shatty, now they can only afford a bridge deal for Point. I think my idea causes these bridge deals to be too pricy.

Just because Colorado has the cap space to give Rantanen that type of deal doesn’t mean they should or would even want to.  They have their own budget to work within and as a young team with a lot of players currently on cheap entry-level deals, they will need to fit those players in down the road.  Giving Rantanen an extra two or three million just for the sake of it could ultimately come back to bite them.

From a league-wide standpoint, the Avs wouldn’t necessarily benefit from this.  Let’s surmise that this deal ultimately does push up the barometer for everyone else (something I’m not even sure would necessarily be the case as one rogue contract doesn’t always automatically result in a changing of market value).  Teams now have to clear out some players to make room.  Those players certainly aren’t going to Colorado as they won’t want to ‘reward’ Sakic for messing up their plans.  I suppose there’s a small benefit in potentially messing up Winnipeg’s plans with their two RFAs as that’s a division rival but that’s a tough sell to ownership.  Let’s give out an extra $15MM or more (over the life of the contract) to mess up a few teams including one division rival.  That’s not great bang for the buck.

As for Point and Tampa, I’ll hold off on that one until we get to another question later on.

acarneglia: Are the Coyotes a playoff team as is?

I think they are.  Mind you, I said this a year ago as well and look at how that turned out.  There are a few reasons to be optimistic though.

First, they can’t possibly be hit harder by the injury bug than they were last year.  That’s not necessarily the most objective of thoughts but it stands to reason that if fewer core players go down with long-term injuries, they should be able to pick up more wins along the way.

Second, I still think their back end is largely underrated.  I believe they played a big role in Darcy Kuemper having a career year in 2018-19 and even if he takes a step back, Antti Raanta should be able to pick up the slack.

Third, their offense will be improved.  Phil Kessel may not be able to reach the point-per-game mark but he’ll certainly outperform Alex Galchenyuk’s numbers from last season.  A full season from Nick Schmaltz will give them a boost.  The same can be said for Christian Dvorak who should give their bottom six a bit of an improvement as well.  Carl Soderberg should at least be able to replace Richard Panik’s production.

Arizona won’t be at the top of the scoring chart next season but they’ve definitely improved in that regard.  That coupled with their strong defense should net them a few more wins and get them back in a Wild Card spot at the very least.

pawtucket: Tell me the contracts for the following. Maybe what they deserve (in your opinion) and what they will get.

Point
Rantanen
Tkachuk
Marner
Boeser
McAvoy
Connor
Laine

This is something I imagine we’ll dig deeper into as the offseason progresses where we start to get into cap percentages, comparables, etc.  Each player is worth probably its own article so instead of getting into too many specifics (including some notes on what they’re worth at various lengths), I’ll toss out some very quick thoughts on each.  I haven’t looked at any comparables for the purpose of answering this question though so keep that in mind when going through my projections.

Brayden Point – It’s hard to see Tampa going higher than $9.5MM (Nikita Kucherov and Andrei Vasilevskiy’s new deal are worth that) so locking in long-term may not be the best move for him.  The Lightning don’t have the cap space to do it either.  A three-year bridge deal in the $7MM range (the market has really changed since Kucherov was bridged a few years back) would fit in their cap structure and give Point a chance at a better payday later.

Mikko Rantanen – While he’ll probably want to be in that five-year range to get to UFA status early, I could see the Avs upping the ante a little bit to lock him in longer.  If it’s five years, I’d peg him around $9MM but seven years at closer to $10MM per would be my quick guess.

Mitch Marner – I wouldn’t even bother discussing a long-term deal here.  He wants money closer to that of Auston Matthews and Toronto doesn’t want to do that unless it’s for a max term or close to it which is something he doesn’t want to do.  So instead of playing the waiting game on that, move on and focus on a bridge.  Three years has been thrown around and if that happens, I’d put him in the $9MM range (since they’re all RFA seasons).  If I were Marner though, I’d push for a one-year pact instead (even though that’d be closer to $8MM) and get to arbitration eligibility which would up his leverage a bit and give him a chance to go year-to-year if getting to UFA status as soon as possible is a priority.

Brock Boeser – I know he doesn’t have the full track record that some of the others do but I don’t find his $7MM asking price all that outlandish.  With Vancouver believed to have offered six years at $6MM per, they should be able to find some middle ground around $6.5MM.

Charlie McAvoy – Could he be a $7.5MM defender down the road?  Sure.  But I don’t think he is now.  He only has two real seasons under his belt and he missed considerable time in both of them.  I like a two-year deal here with an AAV around the $4.5MM range.  It gets him arbitration eligible on his next contract where he could get that big deal while in the short-term, Boston may be able to get him and Brandon Carlo signed without having to move anyone of note for cap reasons.

Kyle Connor – He has a similar profile as Boeser in my opinion even though he has flown a bit more under the radar.  Accordingly, I think he’s in that six-year range at $6.5MM to $7MM per year.

Patrik Laine – There really aren’t many valid comparables in terms of pure goal scorers which will probably complicate things.  Laine’s struggles this season aside from one high-end month also makes things difficult.  I think Winnipeg would like to get a long-term deal done but if I’m Laine, I’d want a short-term deal unless they’re willing to get into the $9MM+ range.  I can’t see the Jets doing that.

I know that bridge deals for impact players have largely gone the way of the dodo bird but with the escalating salary demands and the increased salary cap pressures, some teams may be forced to go in that direction.

@thegrump13: What do you think Carlo and McAvoy sign for and when?

I covered McAvoy above but let’s look at Brandon Carlo.  He’s an important piece of Boston’s back end but a lack of offensive upside limits his earnings ceiling.  Accordingly, it’d make a lot more sense for him to go short-term and if he improves a bit in that regard, then something like Josh Manson’s deal in Anaheim ($4.1MM for four years) could be doable.  He won’t get that now.  I’d say two years around $3MM per which would squeeze him and McAvoy (on a bridge) into what they can afford.

As for when they sign, I think Carlo will get something done around the start of training camp.  McAvoy’s could take a little longer, especially if his camp is waiting for something to happen with Ivan Provorov or Zach Werenski first.  I wouldn’t be shocked if that one carried early into the season which is something I think we’ll see with several players from the previous question.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Topics in this edition of the mailbag include CBA discussion, Chicago’s veteran defensemen, arbitration walkaway rules, which key RFA will be next to sign, Florida’s offseason spending spree, the Patrick Marleau trade, Jake Allen’s trade value, the slow summer for the Kings, Pat Maroon’s future with St. Louis, and the failed Nazem Kadri to Calgary trade.

This is the back half of our mailbag covering the questions from two weeks ago.  Click here to read the first half.

@K9GY: When RFA & GM are at different salary numbers….the easy way to solve it is….make base salary at lowest dollar figure and the rest performance based…

It’s a bit of a unique idea but it’s not one that is permissible in the CBA.  Article 50.2(C)(2) of the CBA states that the only players that are eligible for performance incentives in a contract are as follows:

(i) Players with Entry Level SPCs under Article 9 of this Agreement;
(ii) Players aged 35 or older as of June 30 prior to the League Year in which the SPC is to be effective, who have signed a one-year SPC for that League Year; and
(iii) Players who are “400-plus game Players” for pension purposes, and who: (i) in the last year of their most recent SPC, spent 100 days or more on the Injured Reserve List; and (ii) have signed a one-year SPC for the current or upcoming League Year.

Restricted free agents don’t fall into any of those categories so the idea of a bonus-laden deal with minimal guarantees isn’t an option here.  It’s also hard to think the NHLPA would sign off to putting something like this in the next agreement either.

skogs14: What’s the likelihood that the Blackhawks find a taker for Keith/Seabrook or Anisimov? What kind of return could you expect?

These players can be put into three separate categories.  Not only could Chicago find a taker for Duncan Keith, they’d also get a good return.  He’s not a true number one option anymore but he can still play top-pairing minutes and at a $5.538MM cap hit, he isn’t really hurting a team cap wise.  That could change over the final four years of his contract but there is still tangible trade value right now (a top-four defender plus another asset at a minimum) if they wanted to deal him.  That said, I don’t think they want to.

As for Brent Seabrook, they’d probably like to get out from under that contract.  He’s more of a number four option at this point and with five years left at $6.875MM per, that’s not a deal any team is going to want to assume.

A week ago when I originally had this question answered, I had Artem Anisimov as being the most likely to be dealt when his $2MM signing bonus was paid.  That wound up happening.  I thought they’d be able to get a mid-round pick or similar prospect as well as a player back.  That didn’t quite happen as they wound up with just Zack Smith (and, perhaps more importantly, $1.3MM in cap space).  It’s an okay deal for them as Smith fits better in the role that Anisimov was likely to fill but they certainly lost the more talented player in the swap.

Greg S: For teams up closes to the cap ceiling, what happens if an RFA with arbitration rights is given more money than the team can spend, or would force a trade to be made in order to have him on the team? Can the team refuse to sign him? Or would you have to sign them, then waive them?

Teams do have an option to walk away from a player if they feel an arbitration award is too high although there are rules on how they’re used.  The threshold for 2019 is $4,397,832; the amount increases annually by the percentage increase to the league minimum salary in the preceding season.  Teams are also limited by the number of arbitration awards to their players.  For teams with one or two awards, they can only walk away from one.  Three or four awards opens up a second walkaway option while a team with five awards (which is extremely rare) has access to three walkaways.

There’s still hope for teams where the award falls under that threshold though.  Teams can go over the salary cap by 10% (though there are special rules for what counts against that cap…I’ll spare you the minutia of that one) so even if an award puts a team over the Upper Limit, they’d still have a couple of months to make a corresponding move as they don’t have to be in cap compliance until right before the regular season gets underway.

pawtucket: Who will be the first high-profile RFA to sign (not named Aho)? Are they all playing the waiting game to see who gets what for leverage?

I figured it was going to be a long game of chicken all summer long and Sebastian Aho signing quickly doesn’t really affect that all that much other than giving teams a bit of a baseline to work with.  The only leverage at this point is to not sign and hope the other side gives in which is another reason why a lot of these deals are going to drag out this summer.

As for who may be the next one to sign, I think it’s going to be a defenseman.  There are enough forwards out there that there are going to be a lot of comparables to work with.  That isn’t the case on the back end as Charlie McAvoy and Zach Werenski are the only top pairing ones that remain unsigned.

So I’ll take Werenski for being the next to sign.  Columbus has plenty of cap space and with so many pricey players leaving, they have the ability to frontload a contract without worrying about how it affects their overall budget.  He’s basically in a class of his own this summer (there is a drop-off between him and McAvoy) so there shouldn’t necessarily be a desire to wait it out to see what others get.  It may still take some time but he’ll get a deal done before the other forwards do.

Mark Black: Are the additions of Bobrovsky, Connolly, and Quenneville and a full uninjured season of Trocheck enough to get the Panthers back in the playoffs? And how much will they regret that Bobrovsky contract next year when they are paying goaltenders 13+ million and still need to re-sign or replace Montembeault, Hoffman, Weegar, and Dadonov?

Let’s add Anton Stralman to that list of additions as well.  I know his contract has been ridiculed for the high price tag but he brings some stability to a back end that hasn’t had a whole lot of it.

I’m confident in calling them a playoff team.  It may just be a Wild Card spot but they should be a pretty safe bet to get in.  Sergei Bobrovsky is worth several wins on his own, even if he plays like he did with Columbus in the regular season last year (below his usual level of performance).  Assuming the team stays healthy, that’s probably enough to get them in right there.

Then there’s the offense which is among the best in the East.  This was a top-ten group despite Vincent Trocheck’s injuries last season and it’s basically the same group coming back.  Even if Mike Hoffman takes a bit of a step back after a career year, the continued development of players like Trocheck, Aleksander Barkov, and Jonathan Huberdeau should help offset that.  They’ll be in good shape.

As for a year from now, I don’t see Samuel Montembeault looking for much of a raise.  To be honest, I don’t think he’s in the NHL next season and that their backup goalie isn’t currently in the organization (they’re poised to jump on the waiver-eligible youngsters if they so desire).  MacKenzie Weegar’s next deal shouldn’t be too pricey either.  Yes, they’ll probably be forced to pick to keep only one of Mike Hoffman or Evgeni Dadonov but to get a franchise goalie, that’s an acceptable price to pay next summer.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include what’s next for New York’s teams, finding a fit for Jake Gardiner, offer sheets, Rasmus Ristolainen’s future in Buffalo, Ryan Dzingel, Nikita Gusev’s trade market, Niklas Kronwall’s future, and the latest on Calgary’s arena situation.  As we’ve done over the past several mailbags, we’ll run another edition next weekend so if your question doesn’t appear here, look for it then.

acarneglia: Do the Rangers trade someone, like Kreider or Shattenkirk, or buy someone out, like Smith or Shattenkirk, to get more cap room to sign their RFAs?

@DAN35NY: Will the Rangers make more moves and what do you see who can be moved?

If extension talks with Chris Kreider go nowhere, then he’d become a logical trade candidate.  While some may want to wait until closer to the deadline to deal an impact rental player, I still like the idea of moving him now.  They’d get a sizable return and alleviate some salary cap concerns.  Of course, an extension is still preferable but a Kreider trade isn’t a bad Plan B.

Other trade candidates would be winger Vladislav Namestnikov and center Ryan Strome.  Namestnikov ($4MM) hasn’t produced like he did with Tampa Bay and with their young incoming wingers in Kaapo Kakko and Vitali Kravtsov, the odds of him getting more of a chance to produce.  They’d be selling low but his value may only go lower if his role is lessened when the season starts.  Strome ($3.1MM) was decent last season but if they want more playing time for their young centers, he could be expendable.  However, given what his trade value was last season, they shouldn’t be expecting too much in return.

I think they’d like to go this route over a buyout to save the salary cap implications down the road.  If they do have to that way though, it’s basically a coin flip.  Buying out Brendan Smith is the lesser of two evils (particularly from a PR perspective) but he can go to the minors after clearing waivers whereas Kevin Shattenkirk (NMC) can’t.  If GM Jeff Gorton covets greater in-season flexibility, then maybe it’s Shattenkirk who goes knowing that Smith can go to Hartford to free up a spot later on if needed.  That’s a last-ditch resort though.  Pavel Buchnevich’s arbitration hearing is near the end of the month so they still have a couple of weeks to work with.

Pawtucket: Where does Gardiner best fit?

In terms of pure fit (money aside), Montreal and Winnipeg stand out as good options.  The Canadiens lack a legitimate top-four option on their left side, especially one that provides a punch offensively.  Winnipeg’s left side features Josh Morrissey and not a whole lot else.

However, neither of those teams realistically have the type of money that Gardiner is believed to still be seeking.  To be honest, not a lot of teams do which is part of the reason that he’s still sitting out there nearly two weeks into free agency.

In terms of teams that have a vacancy and cap space, the Kings stand out as their left-side depth is shaky but they’re not really in a position to be adding veteran help at the moment as they’re in a soft rebuild.  The Devils don’t really have an opening this season on their left side but with Andy Greene and Sami Vatanen a year away from UFA status, Gardiner would represent a nice hedge against them leaving town.  I thought if the Flyers were to trade Shayne Gostisbehere that Gardiner would make some sense as a replacement but it doesn’t appear as if they’re moving their young defender which takes them out of the equation.

At this point, Gardiner may want to consider a one-year pillow contract in the hopes that staying healthy will alleviate some concerns about his back.  That would also expand his market a bit more.  But right now, there really isn’t a great fit for him.  I like Winnipeg the most here but they’d need to clear out another contract first (or sign Kyle Connor and Patrik Laine to cheaper than expected deals).  This has already dragged out longer than expected and it may take a while yet for something to get done.

nk: If the Isles do not offer sheet Marner or Laine, what move(s) do you expect them to make this summer?

@billagave: What is next move for NYI?

I don’t expect a big offer sheet coming from them.  To be honest, I think they’re pretty much finished beyond re-signing their RFAs, headlined by Anthony Beauvillier.  That will leave them with a fair bit of in-season flexibility, even if they opt to give Beauvillier a longer-term deal.

If they do want to tweak a bit more, I believe they’ll look at upgrading their center depth.  Someone like Derick Brassard makes some sense on a short-term deal.  There’s a middle-six role available for him and it would be a pretty low-risk proposition overall.  Brian Boyle anchoring the fourth line would make some sense as well and GM Lou Lamoriello has already traded for him once before.

Depending on how the UFA market shakes out on the back end, there could be an opportunity to cash in on some of their surplus defensive depth.  That market is certainly developing slower than expected though so anything like that may come later in the summer or even closer to training camp.

thefenwayfaithful: Why aren’t we seeing more offer sheets this year? I understand everyone wants to “play nice” but with so many teams up against the cap and unlikely to match, it’s bizarre that no one but Montreal has tried to take advantage. If you have the opportunity to put out an offer sheet on a guy you want, the worst case scenario is you’re forcing a team to tie up cap space giving you a deadline advantage when they run into more cap challenges. Slims down the competition. Maybe I’m too cutthroat…

Offer sheets rarely actually yield the player a team is coveting so for some teams, they just decide that there isn’t much point to trying.  You can decide for yourself how much credence you lend to the notion that there is an agreement between some GMs to not engage in those either.

I think part of the challenge this year is figuring out a threshold where a team is comfortable paying the picks and getting the player at that price.  Look at what Montreal did.  The offer sheet for Sebastian Aho was clearly crafted to minimize the compensation as it was clear that they didn’t want to go into that next tier.  They were largely ridiculed for that despite it being the third-largest offer sheet in league history and the highest ever in terms of AAV.  If someone wasn’t willing to go higher for Aho (if they were, he’d have signed with that team instead of the Canadiens), how many are going to jump into that next tier for any of the remaining free agents?

On top of that, how many can afford to?  The list of teams with cap space at or greater than $10MM is pretty small when you factor in players that still need to be re-signed.  Not all of them have the draft pick capital to present a substantial offer sheet either.  The stars just don’t seem to align here.  If there’s going to be another offer sheet, I think it’s going to be at the lower tier (someone like Brendan Lemieux of the Rangers or Marcus Pettersson of the Penguins, players on cap-strapped teams that won’t command expensive deals in terms of draft pick compensation), not a top-end player.

sabres3277: The Sabres: Is it still possible that Ristolainen could be traded for a forward? I like the moves so far but I think they need to add some grit up front or acquiring a player in a trade. What do you think?

While their offseason additions (Colin Miller and Henri Jokiharju) make it more of a possibility that Ristolainen could be on the move, I still wouldn’t classify it as a likely outcome.  For starters, Jokiharju is waiver-exempt and could start in the minors next year.  Miller and Brandon Montour (their other longer-term right-shot option) still have some upside but neither have really been asked to play top minutes so far.  While Ristolainen may be better suited for the second pairing, trading him for a forward takes away a significant security blanket.

It’s believed that they were asking prospective coaches during their interview stage how they’d get Ristolainen back at the top of his game.  I know there are reports saying he’s available but I think it’s more of a case of they’re listening to offers and not actively trying to deal him.

You had initially mentioned Micheal Ferland as part of your question but as we now know, he’s off to Vancouver.  He’d have made some sense as a physical player that can score with the latter element being the more important.  Of the pickups that the Sabres have made, it’s still fair to question whether or not they’ll be able to score enough.  If they can find a way to free up enough room to sign another free agent (they still have a few restricted free agents to re-sign that will eat up most of their cap room), adding scoring depth would be my priority over grit.

M34: What’s with the hate for Ryan Dzingel? The biggest knock on the guy is that his production dipped when his ice time and exposure to top line guys went down. Seems that would be the case for anyone, doesn’t it? One could make the case that even the leagues’ biggest stars would suffer a decline in production if they were relegated to third line minutes with third line talents around them.

What I’m getting at is, as an Avs fan, Sakic’s moves tell me that he thinks Burakovsky and Donskoi are ready to step up productivity with larger roles; why not go get Dzingel who has already proven he can do that? Doesn’t make a lot of sense to me.

Dzingel’s track record of success isn’t the deepest so I’m not sure how proven he really was in the eyes of general managers.  He basically has two seasons of above-average production under his belt and in one of those, he wound up being a healthy scratch at one point in the playoffs.  It’s safe to infer that those struggles played a role in his market being pretty soft.

Just because he produced like a top line player with the Senators doesn’t mean that he is one.  Someone had to play big minutes for them and he got the opportunity (and, to his credit, made the most of it).  However, that role wasn’t available in Colorado or elsewhere.  In terms of having success in a secondary role, there are arguably as many question marks as there are with Andre Burakovsky and Joonas Donskoi.  His output in that situation is still somewhat spotty.

Personally, I’d have signed Dzingel over trading two pretty good draft picks for Burakovsky, even if Dzingel’s $3.375MM AAV with Carolina winds up being a bit higher than what Burakovsky ultimately gets.  He wouldn’t have been a bad fit in Colorado to give them some extra depth but I suspect their focus is to get Mikko Rantanen and some of their other RFAs under contract first to see how much budget room they ultimately have before pursuing other free agents.

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Free agent frenzy has come and gone, though several interesting names remain available. The market is being held up by a huge crop of outstanding restricted free agents,  ready to demand expensive contracts that will eat up cap dollars and limit other opportunities to spend. The dog days of summer are almost here, and hockey fans are starting to put away their favorite sweater only to find out their local baseball team is already 90 games into the MLB season.

Still, there are minor signings happening daily and trade rumors still bubbling up now and again. The most hardcore fan may be dissecting the cap to find out just how much their team can offer Jake Gardiner and Micheal Ferland (update: apparently the answer is $14MM), while also figuring out a young player to target with their leftover draft capital. There are still teams that will improve over the coming weeks and set themselves up for a run at the Stanley Cup in 2020.

With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of our mailbag. You can submit your query by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. Make sure you get your questions in early and we’ll try to get through as many as possible when the mailbag runs this weekend.

If you missed our last edition, it was split into two parts that you can read here and here. The first tackled issues like Jacob Trouba’s next contract and predicted trades for both Phil Kessel and Cody Ceci, which each happened within just a few days. The second took a look at the free agent market and examined how the New York Rangers could be a good fit for Artemi Panarin.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Nathan MacKinnon’s contract, free agent targets for St. Louis, offer sheets, the Rangers, Artemi Panarin’s next contract, Boston and Buffalo’s summer plans, what Will Butcher’s next deal may cost, Darcy Kuemper’s trade value, and Ottawa’s potential for taking on a bad contract via trade.

M34: I can’t fathom MacKinnon playing out his entire contract at its current number. What happens first, a restructure or a holdout? And when?

While MacKinnon is on a very team-friendly deal, he has no available recourse here unlike if he was in the NFL or MLB.  Section 11.10 of the CBA states that contracts cannot be renegotiated.  As for holding out, while it’s technically possible, Colorado’s response would simply be to toll the contract for failure to report which would wind up extending the contract.  That’s what the Islanders did with Evgeni Nabokov years ago after he failed to report to them upon being claimed off entry waivers from Detroit.

MacKinnon’s only real option is to play out the contract and get to unrestricted free agency in 2023 where he can try to make up for missing out on bigger money as a restricted free agent.  In the meantime, his deal (and Mark Scheifele’s in Winnipeg) will be at the forefront of the minds of those in this RFA class as it will serve as a reminder of the downside of taking a long-term deal over getting to UFA eligibility quicker.

haubrick4: With the Blues so close to the cap, who do you see them targeting in Free Agency to fill out the roster?

Not a whole lot, to be honest.  I don’t think they’re in particularly rough shape when it comes to the Upper Limit; they’ll be able to get the rest of their restricted free agents signed without much difficulty.  However, they won’t have a lot of room left to supplement their roster with players on the open market when all is said and done.

I could see them trying to bring Patrick Maroon back.  Failing that, a similar player (someone like Wayne Simmonds) comes to mind.  Beyond that though, their roster will pretty much be filled out once they re-sign their own free agents.  I wouldn’t be surprised if their focus on Monday will actually be signing defensemen that will be ticketed for the minors as their depth is a little thin there.

ThePriceWasRight: With the Sens being under the floor, rumours of Ceci and Boedker being shopped and tons of draft pick capital in 2020, are the Sens not a prime contender to dole out an offer sheet to an RFA?

While it’s true that Ottawa has plenty of cap space and all of their own top draft picks available to them (the ones that would be needed for an offer sheet), I think they’re anything but a prime contender for an offer sheet.

Yes, they have the cap room to make an above-market offer to try to lure a top RFA like Matthew Tkachuk or Mitch Marner but it’s pretty clear that they don’t have the budget room.  Ottawa is likely to look to add a cheap veteran or two to get above the Lower Limit of the cap but with where they are in terms of their rebuild, that’s about all the spending that would really be justified.

There’s no denying that adding a top RFA to their roster would improve them, but would doing so vault them into a playoff spot?  Probably not.  An offer sheet for a Tkachuk or a Marner would cost multiple first-round picks.  All of a sudden, they’re in another situation where they don’t have an unprotected lottery pick.  There’s always a risk to offer sheeting a prime player but for a team like Ottawa, the risk would be even higher.  They’ll stay away from one for now.

met man: Who will be the “backup “goalie on the Rangers next season?

I don’t think it will be the same player all season.  Both Alexandar Georgiev and Igor Shesterkin are waiver exempt which gives New York some options.  Georgiev certainly has done enough to earn a spot while Shesterkin’s upside is certainly intriguing.  One of them has to go down though as carrying three goalies isn’t a viable option and Henrik Lundqvist isn’t going anywhere.

Let’s get back to the waiver exemption.  My prediction on what will happen is that the goalies will go back and forth throughout the season.  That will give them some time with the Rangers (and perhaps lighten Lundqvist’s workload) while still giving them some extra ice time in the minors.  I’m not a fan of having a young netminder playing just 20 or 25 games while they can be in the AHL so this scenario is the next best option – they get some NHL time but also get to play in Hartford and see their workload get closer to 40 games apiece.

CoachWall: Do the Rangers have enough assets to make a run at a top-six forward? How seriously do they go after Panarin?

In terms of trade currency, they certainly do.  GM Jeff Gorton has done a nice job of restocking their prospect pool to the point where they could deal a prospect or two away and get a top-six piece with some team control in return.  That said, I’d question if that’s the right move for them.

The Jacob Trouba acquisition really didn’t cost them much – just a few months of a player they weren’t going to re-sign anyway in Kevin Hayes plus Neal Pionk, a capable player but not one with top-pairing ability or potential.  That didn’t really jeopardize their future so why not make that move?  But moving out some prospects carries some more risk, one they don’t necessarily have to take.

I like the free agent market for top-six help on the wings.  Panarin is certainly at the top of the list but there are some other options out there such as Anders Lee, Mats Zuccarello, and Gustav Nyquist, among others.  If they’ve decided that the rebuild is finished, going that route would be preferable to giving up pieces of your future.

Speaking of Panarin…

Dylan: Has the Karlsson signing possibly paved the way for Panarin to become the highest paid player in the league?

A couple of weeks ago, I sat down and mapped out my rankings and contract projections for free agents and in there, I initially had Erik Karlsson getting the biggest AAV so I’ll stick with that call here.  I wouldn’t be entirely shocked if Panarin eclipses an $11.5MM cap hit but he has some factors working against him, including the fact that he doesn’t play a premier position (center or defense).

I would be more than shocked if he gets more than Connor McDavid ($12.5MM).  He’s one of the best players in the league (if not the best), plays a premium position, is still young enough that there’s room for improvement, and he has outscored Panarin in each of the last three seasons.  If Paul Theofanous can somehow get Panarin more than McDavid despite all of that, give him the Agent of the Year award right then and there (as soon as someone actually creates that award).  He’ll probably be the highest-paid winger when all is said and done but not the highest-paid player.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the Rangers, Phil Kessel, Cody Ceci’s future in Ottawa, Philadelphia’s offseason movement, what Dallas could do this summer, CBA talk, Jonathan Quick, San Jose’s veteran free agents, and the Olli Maatta trade.  As we’ve done over the last several mailbags, the questions will be split up with the ones not appearing here going in next weekend’s edition.

pawtucket: Does Trouba re-sign in New York or did the Rangers just give away a 1st rounder and Pionk for a 1-year rental?

met man: Now that the Rangers have obtained Trouba, what do you see as their next big move?

acarneglia: Which Rangers player, if any, is most likely to be traded at the draft? Do we see Lundqvist finally waive his NTC to chase a ring? Does NYR cut ties with Kreider?

Let’s tackle the New York questions together.

While technically, the Rangers didn’t get permission to speak to Jacob Trouba about an extension, the belief is that they were on the list of teams that the defenseman gave to Winnipeg that he’d like to be traded to.  I don’t think he does that if his intention was to just take a one-year deal and then hit the open market.  It may take some time but I expect them to get a long-term deal done in the range of $7MM to $8MM per season with considerable no-trade protection in the second year and beyond.

I’ve been saying for a while that New York would be wise to not make big splashes this summer and give their young core another season to see how they integrate into the lineup.  Clearly, they made one of those moves with Trouba but I’m not certain there will be another that’s at that magnitude.  They’ll try for Artemi Panarin but there’s no guarantee they get him.  Dealing away Chris Kreider is a distinct possibility if they can’t agree to terms on a long-term deal.  Talks have only been cursory thus far but that should change as we enter the week where some big trades are likely to be made.

As for who else could go, I think Jimmy Vesey could be on the move at some point.  They’ll be adding Kaapo Kakko and Vitali Kravtsov next season and all of a sudden, it doesn’t appear as if Vesey is going to be part of their long-term plans.  If that’s the case, the time to move him may very well be sooner than later.  Henrik Lundqvist has never shown an inclination to leave New York, even when their rebuild was in full force.  Now that they’re emerging from that, it’s hard to imagine he’ll suddenly have a change of heart.

@RMabie215: What trade did Kessel veto?

According to reports, Kessel blocked a trade that would have seen him go to Minnesota in a swap that would have also involved Jason Zucker (who now has essentially been dealt twice only to see the trade fall through).  Jack Johnson and Victor Rask were also suggested as players potentially in the swap but Pittsburgh has since dealt Olli Maatta from their surplus of blueliners.  Kessel has an eight-team trade list which doesn’t give GM Jim Rutherford much wiggle room to try to move him.

Lately, Rutherford has been talking about how he now expects to keep him and doesn’t really want to shake up the core very much.  At least to some degree, I think that’s just public posturing.  It’s pretty clear that head coach Mike Sullivan isn’t Kessel’s biggest fan so if the opportunity presents itself to bring in someone that might be a better fit, I expect the Penguins to pursue it despite the recent comments.

JDGoat: What are the chances between a Ceci trade or signing?

I’ve long expected the Senators to trade defenseman Cody Ceci.  He has been exposed while playing a role that he’s just not capable of handling on a night in, night out basis.  I think he can still be a serviceable fourth or fifth defender in the right situation but Ottawa is not the right situation for him.

The Senators are clearly in the middle of rebuilding.  Ceci is a year away from being eligible for unrestricted free agent eligibility.  The price tag is going to be approaching the $5MM mark, perhaps even a bit more on a long-term deal (something that might actually hurt his trade value).  This is a situation that logically screams trade from Ottawa’s perspective.

I get that Ceci is a bit of a different case.  He’s from the area and played his junior hockey with the 67s.  There’s a bit of extra attachment to him as a result.  However, they didn’t hesitate to move anyone else in this situation so they should be taking that approach with the 25-year-old here as well.

If I’m handicapping the situation, I’ll put it at 65-35 in favor of a trade this offseason.  If there isn’t a palatable swap available right now, a one-year deal may be the next option with an eye on trading Ceci as a rental player closer to the trade deadline in February.

Fortarnold: Does Chuck Fletcher actually know what he is doing? He has just made three questionable moves in a row at a time when he could turn the Flyers into a legit contender. Two defensemen trending in the wrong direction and paying a non-top tier center near top tier money. At least Hextall had a plan that you could see shaping to form, albeit at a snail’s pace, but a logical plan nonetheless.

While some of the moves have been a little surprising, I can see Fletcher’s logic.  Matt Niskanen gives them some mobility on the back end, not to mention a bit of a veteran presence which is something their group doesn’t have a lot of.  He’s not the number two/three player he once was but he can still contribute.  Having to retain part of Radko Gudas’ contract to facilitate the move was a bit surprising though.

I think the price for Justin Braun was a little steep but he’s a steady player in the right role.  At the very least, if he winds up being more of an extraneous part, there will be a trade market for him as the season progresses where they can get at least one of those picks back.

The contract for Kevin Hayes is a bit of an overpayment but most big contracts given to unrestricted free agents are.  He’s a capable second liner in the short-term and once Nolan Patrick develops and surpasses him on the depth chart, they’ll be in really good shape down the middle.

The plan appears to be that it’s time for them to get back into the playoffs as these are all win-now types of moves.  They’re certainly a better team but with the Rangers and Devils also making moves to improve, Philly is probably still going to be in a tough battle to make the postseason.

@JoeWalton9090: Do you see Dallas making a big splash this offseason?

They have enough cap room to sign/acquire one player of note.  That could very well just be re-signing Mats Zuccarello though.  However, there’s a higher price to pay to keep the winger around though as the conditional 2020 pick that they owe the Rangers would upgrade to a first rounder.  That could be too steep of a price for GM Jim Nill to pay.  He told NHL.com earlier today that Zuccarello intends to see what’s out there in free agency first before deciding whether or not he wants to re-sign.

I could see Anders Lee and Gustav Nyquist being players of interest if they don’t bring Zuccarello back.  Lee would give them another legitimate scoring threat while Nyquist would bolster their second line.  I suppose Lee could be called a splash if he signs there.

Having said that, I also wouldn’t be surprised if Dallas decides to shore up their depth and uses their money over a few players.  Instead of spending most of their remaining cap room (after Brett Ritchie and Jason Dickinson get new deals) on one player, I could see them signing a couple of cheaper wingers to try to bolster their scoring depth instead of being so top-heavy.  So while they have it in them to make a splash this summer, I think they’ll spread the wealth around instead.

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The 2018-19 NHL season is officially over, but that doesn’t mean the hockey world gets a moment of rest. The draft is just around the corner, with free agents allowed to start talking to new teams just after that. Teams have already started to reshape their rosters with trades, while others try to steady the ship with long-term extensions.

Erik Karlsson was set to become the top free agent on the market this summer but has re-signed in San Jose, leaving a hole at the top of the list of available defensemen. Do Tyler Myers and Jake Gardiner become the de facto top options, or will teams instead circle back to the trade market to try and find their blue line solutions? What about up front? Does Artemi Panarin have a market outside of a handful of teams? Will San Jose be able to afford Joe Pavelski now? All those questions and more are on the minds of hockey fans everywhere.

With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of our mailbag. You can submit your query by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. Make sure to get your questions in early and we’ll try to get through them all when the mailbag runs this weekend.

If you missed our last edition, it was split into two parts that you can read here and here. The first tackled topics like morality clauses in player contracts, the New Jersey Devils’ offseason plans, and the unfortunate reality of bad Edmonton Oilers contracts. Next, Brian took on questions regarding Chris Kreider’s future in New York, a potential Jacob Trouba trade, and gave his thoughts on the Phil Kessel situation.