PHR Mailbag

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include what’s next for the Rangers, potential early moves for the Islanders, coaches on the hot seat, the situation on Winnipeg’s back end, and what type of impact a pair of top youngsters could have on the Flyers this season.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next week’s mailbag.

@MikeyBGoode27: Any noise on the #NYRangers making another move after Vladdy was traded to Ottawa?

met man: Do the Rangers still move Kreider now that Namestnikov has been traded? What is their current salary cap situation?

I don’t expect to see anything from the Rangers for a little while on the trade front.  The Vladislav Namestnikov trade gives them ample cap space to work with (more than $4MM) in terms of having money for injury recalls and performance bonuses of which there are a lot of given the youth on the roster.  At this point, the only swaps that may be coming would be shuffling young players back and forth with AHL Hartford.  Beyond that, they can afford to wait to see how the next few months play out to see what type of moves they’ll be looking to make closer to the trade deadline.

I don’t think the Namestnikov trade has anything to do with Chris Kreider’s future in New York.  Namestnikov has an expiring contract so it’s not as if moving him out frees up extra cap room for Kreider’s extension.  The first thing they need to figure out is how much his next deal is going to cost; that amount should come in a fair bit higher than his current $4.625MM AAV.  If it’s feasible, then they’ll just extend him and be done.  If it’s not feasible or they can’t agree, then it becomes a question of what’s better – keeping him for a playoff push or selling him at the deadline.  Which route is more palatable will be determined by their position in the standings a few months from now.

nk: It’s only 3 games but the Isles are inconsistent at best and bad at worst. A lifeless effort against Edmonton followed an excellent performance against Winnipeg which followed a sluggish performance to open the season vs Washington. All at home. How long will Lou wait to shake things up? He has the cap space to bring in a high valued top-6 forward and 7 goals in 3 games isn’t going to cut it especially if Varlamov plays this poorly.

While Lamoriello has made some sudden moves in the past, he has always believed in being as deliberate as possible.  The phrase ‘if you have time, use it’ is largely attributed to him so I don’t think he’s going to make a quick move based on a so-so start.

The first few weeks of the season are going to be for evaluation.  That goes for pretty much every team in the league, not just the Islanders.  But for New York specifically, how ready for full-time duty are the youngsters like Devon Toews and Noah Dobson?  What type of start does Sebastian Aho get off to in Bridgeport?  If Lamoriello is confident in that group, then perhaps someone like Nick Leddy becomes expendable to bring in top-six help.

The Islanders were one of the biggest surprises in the league last season so they’ve earned the benefit of the doubt early on.  For now, the only move that may be on the horizon is something involving Josh Ho-Sang as it’s hard to see that situation dragging out much longer.  If they can’t find a trade in the next week or so, he may wind up having to report to the Sound Tigers just to show he’s still in playing condition.

CHRISJENJ: Any coaches on the hot seat so far in this young season? Maybe John Hynes? Possibly Peter DeBoer? Now don’t get me wrong, I think DeBoer is a great coach and even though we are so early into the season (only a week) isn’t it somewhat alarming the way the Sharks are playing? They are a perennial playoff team but just can’t seem to get over the last hurdle. Do you think a coaching change might be in order if they don’t make it to the promised land this season, let alone start playing better?

@dennybruute: Devils firing Coach?

With New Jersey getting two mentions, let’s look at Hynes first.  Hynes is now four games into a multi-year contract extension that was signed in January.  He has been tasked with integrating several new core players, two of which had never played in the NHL before a week and a half ago.  With those two factors, I’d be shocked if Hynes was in jeopardy of losing his job this quickly.  If they’re still struggling badly six weeks from now, I probably would have a different answer for you but for now, I don’t see a coaching change happening there.

The answer is different when it comes to San Jose, however.  They are a veteran-laden team in win-now mode and they haven’t gotten off to a strong start this season.  Patrick Marleau will help them but he alone won’t turn their fortunes around.  The Sharks don’t have the luxury of having ample cap room to try to shake things up either; they had to waive a player to fit Marleau’s league minimum salary on their books.  If they have to recall anyone due to injury, they’re in trouble when it comes to cap compliance.  As a result, they basically only have one card they can play if they want to shake things up and that’s a coaching change.  I still think it’s a bit early but if this carries on for another couple of weeks, replacing Peter DeBoer could become a realistic possibility.

While coaching changes can make a difference (see St. Louis last season), more often than not they don’t really help all that much in the end.  With that in mind, other than potentially DeBoer if San Jose doesn’t start winning sooner than later, I don’t expect to see much activity on the coaching front for a while.

JDGoat: Who are potential targets the Jets might be looking at who could be available already to upgrade their D?

In the short-term, Winnipeg can’t really afford to do much of anything.  While Dustin Byfuglien’s $7.6MM AAV is currently off their books due to his suspension, they have to basically encumber that money if he decides to return.  Considering they sit under the cap by an amount less than Byfuglien’s cap hit, they can’t do much of anything for now as a result as if Byfuglien does decide to come back in the next couple of weeks, they’d be over the cap and scrambling to get back under.

There also aren’t a whole lot of players that are available.  Rasmus Ristolainen has been a popular speculative target for a lot of teams so he’d undoubtedly be in the mix.  Leddy, if he’s made available, would probably get their attention as well.  Julius Honka is available but he’s not really going to move the needle for them.  I’m sure there are other depth options available as well but Winnipeg already has depth pieces of their own to work with.

There’s a reason that the trade market is slow in the early going as teams want to see what they have, what they need, and what they can afford to part with.  Winnipeg knows what they need but teams are hesitant to part with blueliners this early in the season so they’re going to have to wait.  Once other teams get a sense of where they are (in other words, who might sell), the Jets should have banked enough cap room that they could afford to bring another player in and bring Byfuglien back as they’re banking a lot of space on a daily basis.  They’ll have to stick with what they have until then which may be a couple of months from now.

DarkSide830: Even with lesser regarded guys like Bunnaman and Twarynski on the roster the Flyers have done well these first two games (albeit against two teams that aren’t exactly the cream of the crop). Once Farabee and Frost are ready, what is the ceiling for the team this year?

I’m not inclined to think Joel Farabee and Morgan Frost will make a significant difference this season with Philadelphia.  Part of the reason that they’re in the minors is that they’re the better prospects; they’re content with having Carson Twarynski and Connor Bunnaman in limited roles so that their top ones can get more playing time.  Unless a bunch of injuries strike, Farabee and Frost should be spending more time with Lehigh Valley than they do with the Flyers.

Yes, Carter Hart came up as a rookie partway through last season and really changed their fortunes.  That’s not common for a first-year pro so fans shouldn’t be counting on it to happen again, especially with forwards that don’t impact the game as much as a goalie does.

As for their ceiling, I think they can be a playoff team.  In the last mailbag, I had them as the third seed in the Metropolitan Division and with it, a guaranteed postseason position.  Guys like Farabee and Frost give them some potentially strong injury recall options but I’d be surprised if either of them plays a significant role in 2019-20.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include waiver candidates, the remaining restricted free agents, Toronto’s salary cap situation, the Justin Faulk trade, forecasting the Metropolitan Division, and whether or not a top prospect will stick with Vegas for the full season.

JDGoat: Is there any obvious high upside guys who are at risk of being put on waivers in the next week?

High upside players usually don’t get waived as there is typically a trade market for those players.  I’d go as far as suggesting some medium upside players could be waived though.

For me, the goalie market is the one to watch.  Is Washington going to waive Pheonix Copley for cap purposes and go with a prospect as the backup instead?  Copley’s first full NHL season was decent enough that he could get some attention.  Pittsburgh is in a similar boat with Casey DeSmith and Tristan Jarry.  I have a hard time thinking one of them would get through waivers unclaimed but it’s going to be hard for them to keep all three around so if a trade doesn’t materialize, one of them will probably hit the wire.  Charlie Lindgren (Montreal) and Eric Comrie (Winnipeg) are others in this category as well.

In terms of skaters, the upside isn’t going to be quite as high.  It’s possible that one or two could turn into useful players elsewhere but the quality isn’t as good.  Charles Hudon (Montreal) is two years removed from a 30-point season but appears to be on the outside looking in.  The Islanders are going to have to cut a forward or two so someone like Tom Kuhnhackl could help a fourth line.  Vancouver needs to trim some forwards but they’re going to be fourth line types as well.  There don’t appear to be any defensemen of note that will hit the wire either.  If you’re looking for upside on waivers, it’s going to pretty much be only goalies that fit that bill.

Gerald Arrington: Rantanen
Laine
Connor
Honka

Remaining RFA’s left who signs who don’t?

Patrik Laine signed after this question was posed so we can cross him off the list.  Of the group, the only one that’s really at a risk of not signing is Dallas defenseman Julius Honka.  At some point, if he doesn’t get traded, he may decide to go play overseas for the season rather than returning to being a healthy scratch with the Stars.  Considering he won’t be getting much more than his qualifying offer of just over $874K, he probably wouldn’t be leaving much money on the table either.  Kyle Connor and Mikko Rantanen may leak out over to the start of the season but they’ll get deals done.

coachdit: My question is complex, what’s more likely, Rantanen giving in to stay in the NHL, or saying forget the NHL and play at 50% off in Finland and take advantage of that countries tax haven? Or both and he should be viewed by Avs fans as a midseason upgrade vs trading something for the upgrade at the deadline. Does the risk outweigh the cap savings?  Or vice versa and the cap hit outweighs the risk?

I know it’s out there that he had a roughly $4MM offer in the KHL but even with the difference in tax situations, he’d be leaving a lot of money on the table to play overseas so it’s not really a viable option for him.  Even if this takes all the way to the December 1st deadline which would result in a higher cap hit than the AAV for this season, Colorado has the ability to absorb that and still sit comfortably under the cap so there’s minimal risk from that perspective.  There’s risk in having a high-end forward missing nearly two months of course and whether or not it goes that far depends on how insistent his side is in terms of trying to get a comparable deal to Mitch Marner.  Regardless of when he signs though, the Avs should have more than enough cap room to add someone at the deadline beyond Rantanen so they shouldn’t be interpreting him as their big midseason pickup.

M34: Toronto cap situation.

I’m not really sure how much I’m missing here…

They are well over the 10% off-season grace.

They have at least $13MM over the cap after the Marner signing.

From what I gather, they are going to be cap compliant by the start of the season because of LTIR.

So I guess my question is:

Does the $94+mm current cap hit not justify some type of league punishment by the letter of the law?

I’ve read (not an expert by any means) that there are potential league judgements that can be levied against teams and even players individual stats based on an organizations failure to comply to league statutes, even during the offseason.

Long question needs a long answer, but can you sum it up in layman’s terms?

I don’t know if this really requires too long of an answer but here’s what I believe is happening:

When Marner signed, one of David Clarkson or Nathan Horton was placed on LTIR (and yes, that does exist in the offseason).  That got them back under the 10% offseason overage threshold so there’s no league punishment forthcoming for being over that limit; they would have rejected Marner’s contract if it put them over.  Once the season starts, the other of Clarkson or Horton will go on LTIR as well as Zach Hyman and Travis Dermott who are both expected to miss a little more than the minimum three weeks.  Depending on how they fill out their roster, they should be in compliance to start the season.  Things may get a little trickier when they both return but that’s a problem for a month from now.  In the meantime, expect to see a few Toronto players making frequent appearances in our Minor Transactions posts throughout the season as they’re shuffled back and forth to save a bit of cap room.

Paul Heyman: What did you think of the Blues trade for Faulk?

I’m not a huge fan of it, to be honest.  Yes, Faulk is an upgrade on Joel Edmundson (who I think will do well with Carolina) but parting with Dominik Bokk, a pretty good prospect, seems like a bit much to add.  I also don’t love the extension (which is what made it more justifiable to part with Bokk from their perspective).  The last couple of years of that deal won’t look pretty and if this winds up pushing Alex Pietrangelo out the door, this could really have some longer-term consequences.  If it doesn’t, then they’re paying big money to three right-shot defensemen and there’s some risk with that when it comes to keeping all three happy and in terms of cap management as well.  St. Louis is a better team this season as a result of the trade and that’s certainly worth something but the potential long-term ramifications concern me a bit.

acarneglia: What do the final Metro division standings look like?

They’re going to be quite jumbled as there really isn’t a clear-cut top team out there and there are a lot of teams that can be in the mix.  I can see the gap between finishing first and missing the playoffs outright only being a few victories which will make it really interesting to follow.  Here’s a really quick prediction:

1) Washington – They’re in trouble if injuries strike with minimal depth and cap space but their proven core remains intact.
2) Carolina – I’m still not completely sold on them and I wouldn’t be shocked if they took a step back but they’ve earned the benefit of the doubt and have made some incremental improvements to a young, developing core.
3) Philadelphia – A full season from Carter Hart will help and while Kevin Hayes’ contract is a big one and will be ugly down the road, he’ll certainly help them this season.  I expect Ivan Provorov to bounce back as well.
4) Pittsburgh – Like Washington, they’re really vulnerable to injuries with so little cap room and their depth has been thinned out a bit more.  They were a bubble team last year and I think they’ll be one again though a full year from Justin Schultz will really help.
5) New Jersey – A now-healthy Cory Schneider will give them a boost, as will a full season from Taylor Hall.  They’ve added impact players and their depth is much-improved.  It’s not a flawless roster but they’ll be heard from this season.
6) NY Rangers – Their offense is much-improved and Jacob Trouba gives them a legitimate top pairing player.  However, they have a lot of young core pieces up front and they probably will develop at different rates which could hurt them a bit this season.
7) NY Islanders – I’m not sold that Semyon Varlamov can replicate Robin Lehner’s performance last season and teams may be better prepared to exploit their defensive structure after seeing it over a full season.  Having said that, I don’t think they’ll miss by much.
8) Columbus – They’ll be more competitive than it may seem on the surface but this is a rebuilding year.  Their goaltending will be quite intriguing.

CHRISJENJ: As of now which team is better built for the future? Rangers or Devils? Which team will have more success five years from now?

Let’s go at this by position, starting in goal.  With Alexandar Georgiev and Igor Shesterkin, the Rangers have a couple of young goalies that they hope have number one potential.  The Devils feel the same way about Mackenzie Blackwood while Gilles Senn had a nice run with Davos but I’m not sure he’s at the level of the others.  I’ll take New York’s options here.

On defense, New Jersey has a nice prospect in Ty Smith and I think Reilly Walsh has some NHL upside while it wouldn’t be shocking to see at least one of Will Butcher or Damon Severson signed to another deal by then.  New York has Jacob Trouba and Brady Skjei signed for at least five years plus a few youngsters headlined by Adam Fox and K’Andre Miller, among others.  I think the Devils will have a different-looking back end by then which makes this tough to forecast five years down the road but with what each team has now, I’d go with the Rangers again.

Up front, Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier down the middle should be an enviable one-two punch.  Michael McLeod and Jesper Boqvist should be good players as well.  They don’t have many other NHL players that are under team control at that time though so there’s likely to be a bit of turnover.  Meanwhile, the Rangers have Artemi Panarin signed long-term plus Kaapo Kakko, Vitali Kravtsov, Filip Chytil, Lias Andersson, and Brett Howden all under team control through then.  There are more known commodities on the Rangers but that one-two center punch could be among the top ones in the league so I’d lean towards the Devils here even though there aren’t many other players to really assess.

Overall, both teams are on an upward path but for five years down the road, I’d pick the Rangers as the better-positioned of the two but a whole lot can change between now and then.

@wakeMC: What are the chances Cody Glass is in Vegas opening line up to start the season and also remain there the whole year?

Fundamentally speaking, I’m not a fan of having a top forward prospect (especially a center) playing in a bottom-six NHL role and that’s where he’d be in Vegas.  Yes, fourth lines play more than usual so it’s not as if he’d be playing six minutes a night but if they view him as their number one of the future, he needs to get some time in offensive situations as well and that would come by spending time with AHL Chicago.

I think there’s a decent chance he cracks the opening night lineup given how he has performed in training camp but eventually, they’ll see that he’d be better off playing upwards of 20 minutes a night in all situations in the minors.  He’ll probably also be papered to and from the minors a bit while up with the Golden Knights to save a bit of cap room.  Glass will see some NHL action this season but I’d be surprised if he spent the whole year with them.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Topics in this edition of the mailbag include RFA winger Jesse Puljujarvi, the Rangers’ backup goalie situation, David Backes’ big contract, players that could be on the rebound and decline, and how Seattle’s 2021 debut could affect activity around the league this season.

acarneglia: Are the Rangers a potential match for Puljujarvi?

met man: How do you think the Ranger goalie situation will play out?  Which Russian will be Lundqvist’s’ partner?  What happens to the odd man out?

As far as possible fits for Puljujarvi go, the Rangers would be one of the better ones.  With a pretty young group of forwards, they’re the type of team where he could potentially fit in on a second or third line and have some success.  Unfortunately for New York, they’re not a realistic landing spot.

With minimal cap space to work with and Brendan Lemieux and Anthony DeAngelo needing new contracts, the Rangers simply aren’t in a spot where they can realistically afford to add salary.  It’s not that Puljujarvi would be commanding a pricey deal but he’ll want more than his qualifying offer and that might be too rich for what they can afford on the cap unless they offset some money elsewhere.  Yes, Edmonton wants a top-nine forward for him but the only viable option would be Jesper Fast and that’s probably not going to get it done.

I actually think Puljujarvi’s trade odds have gone down.  Going back to Finland is a good thing for his development.  He’ll be out of the spotlight and can work on some of the elements that are lacking.  A good season there will help his trade value and GM Ken Holland knows it.  They’re not going to get much of a return now if they trade him so they might as well wait it out unless someone gets desperate.  The Rangers won’t be that team.

As for the backup goalie situation, both Alexandar Georgiev and Igor Shesterkin are waiver-exempt which is actually a good thing here.  I see the pair spending some time at both levels as a result.  That way, they get a bit of time in the NHL but also see a fair bit of action in AHL Hartford.  A young NHL backup is rarely an ideal situation from a development perspective so with two youngsters in the discussion, this is the best compromise they can make.

azcm2511: How does Boston get out from under the Backes contract? Taking into account his movement control, do you think it would be possible for Sweeney to find a buyer who will take on the entire contract if he was to package him with Torey Krug? I don’t see how they will manage to fit Krug into the budget if he is projected to be a 7-9 mil a year player after this season. The B’s have McAvoy and potentially Gryz to fill the PP void, do you see any potential matches for this scenario?

While I doubt they’d be willing to part with Krug to get out of Backes’ deal, I applaud you for thinking outside the box.  I know contract talks haven’t really started with the pending UFA defender but there’s still plenty of time.  They’re a team in win-now mode so parting with a top offensive weapon from the back end is counter-productive even if freeing up the money helps them re-sign Charlie McAvoy and Brandon Carlo.  I agree that his price tag may very well be too high to be a long-term fit but the internal discussion about trading him for that reason would come at the trade deadline and be based on where they are in the standings.

As for what they’ll do with Backes, he doesn’t have a no-move clause so they’d save a little bit by sending him down.  If they replaced him with a minimum-salaried player, that’d free up an extra $375K in cap room.  That’s not a lot but if that money isn’t spent over the course of the season, that’s worth a small addition at the trade deadline.  I wonder if there’s a move to be made with 50% retention and a sweetener; their system is deep enough that it could part with a prospect or pick to do so without it hurting too badly.  And if all else fails, they can try to find a doctor to certify him as injured and try to go the LTIR route.  His style of play has made him susceptible to being injury-prone at this point of his career.  It probably wouldn’t be a season-ender like some other players but it’d buy them some time and allow them to get into compliance to start the season and re-sign Carlo and McAvoy.

pawtucket: Which teams will surprise everyone and make or contend for a playoff spot and which teams will disappoint and shock us all?

pitmanrich: Which players do you see having a bounce-back season after a poor 18-19 season and which players are just in decline and will continue to get worse?

I made my picks for surprise teams a couple of mailbags ago and not much has changed since then.  I think New Jersey could make some noise with some of their additions, the return to health from Taylor Hall, and a healthy season from Cory Schneider.  On the flip side, Pittsburgh has taken a small step back on paper and they weren’t at their best last season so I could see them slipping out of the playoffs this time around.

In terms of bounce-back candidates, William Nylander in Toronto is a good place to start.  He never looked right after missing the first two months of the year due to a contract holdout.  I suspect this will almost feel like a fresh start for him (even though he didn’t change teams) and get back closer to his 60-point form.  Arizona is clearly banking on a bounce back from Clayton Keller with the extension that he just got and playing alongside Phil Kessel should certainly help in that regard.  Assuming Nikolaj Ehlers stays healthy, he should be in line for a big jump offensively as well.

I’m always hesitant to predict players on the downswing but I’m not sold that a coaching and system change in Anaheim will revive Ryan Getzlaf’s offense.  He has a lot of heavy minutes under his belt and at some point, he’ll have to be scaled back a bit which won’t help his point total.  The speed of the NHL concerns me when it comes to Ilya Kovalchuk and I’m not sure a new coach will vastly turn his game around.  I’m also uncertain that Wayne Simmonds will turn things around considerably.  I don’t mind his addition on a one-year deal but his rugged style of play screams potential decline.  He should outperform his play with Nashville (three points in 19 games between the end of the season and playoffs) but I don’t expect him to get back to the level that he was at a couple of years ago with Philadelphia.

CarmanDyer9: What impact will the upcoming expansion draft have on this season? What potential moves could you see teams making to compensate for the expansion draft?

I feel a little bad for Seattle GM Ron Francis.  Quite a few of the side deals that teams made to protect a certain player worked out quite well for Vegas and not so well for the other team.  That’s going to make teams a little less willing to start moving things around and will just bite the bullet when the time comes and they lose a player.

I think we’re a year away from the 2021 expansion draft really having an impact on movement around the league.  While teams are certainly planning ahead, it’s hard to see some thinking about moving their fourth defenseman now in fear that they’ll lose him to Seattle.  Rosters will change considerably between now and then; who knows what the 2020 UFA market will bring?

Once we get to 2020-21 and things start to look a little clearer on the roster side, then we’ll start to see some effects.  Teams may hesitate on UFA extension talks and a swap or two could be made with that in mind.  A team that’s out of it midseason could try to take advantage of someone’s expansion situation in a rental player trade.  But that’s still a year away.  For 2019-20, don’t expect the expansion draft to really have too much of an impact on player movement around the league.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the slow-moving RFA market, future salary cap projections, Washington’s key pending unrestricted free agents, Minnesota’s top-paid veterans, and Marcus Pettersson’s situation in Pittsburgh.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next week’s edition.

random comment guy: Why haven’t other teams made offers to the remaining RFAs? I understand there are draft picks connected to them but this standoff looks like it will playing into the season.

Just because no other offer sheets have been signed beyond Montreal’s attempt for Sebastian Aho doesn’t mean that there haven’t been other attempts.  There were reports at the beginning of July that the Canadiens wanted to explore an offer sheet for Tampa Bay’s Brayden Point but were rebuffed.  Teams can try to poach an RFA all they want but the player still has to agree to a deal.  Lots of times, the player doesn’t want to.

Draft pick compensation certainly has to play a role as well.  At the rate that Montreal’s offer sheet for Aho was, teams are going to match on any of the forwards.  They’d probably match at the next tier as well (two first-rounders plus a second and a third) without much hesitancy.  So what’s the point of trying?  That was the common response to the Aho offer sheet.  Now we’re talking four first-round picks to get the player plus having to sign them to what would be an above-market deal.  That’s a lot to give up no matter how talented the player is.

If I’m a team that wants to submit an offer sheet, I’m taking a look at the Rangers right now.  They don’t appear to be willing to move off their one-year qualifying offers for Brendan Lemieux and Anthony DeAngelo as that’s basically all they can afford.  Both players have some upside still and an offer at the top of the third-round pick range (just over $2.1MM) could give them some pause with their cap situation.  If a team wanted to go into the next tier, there’s a good chance they could get the player.

With the current thresholds, the bottom of the market is where the best potential for a realistic offer sheet is.  As for the top players, there’s a very good chance that several of these will drag into the season although I expect to see a few deals get done over the next couple of weeks.

M34: Multi-part question:

What is your best guess at the new cap number when the TV deal kicks in, and when is that supposed to happen?

When that happens, what tier of players benefit most; the star players, the middle six type guy’s, or do teams start using more money to add better quality depth guy’s? Or do you think it’s somewhat even across the board?

I don’t share the same enthusiasm as some when it comes to a big boost in the cap when the new US TV deal gets done.  There’s demand for live content but with a lot of bloated contracts on the books for other sports, it’s not going to be a bidding war.  Networks will be a little thriftier.  Could they double the current $200MM per year revenue?  Sure, that’s possible.  But that’s only roughly a $3MM increase to the cap (half of the increase divided by 32 teams).  I’d have a hard time thinking the league will get a lot more than that though as the ratings just aren’t that strong.  The new contract (or contracts if they split it between more than one network) isn’t going to be shattering any benchmarks like the deal in Canada did.

Let’s say they do slightly better than double it.  That would amount to a $3.5MM to $4MM increase in the cap.  Assuming there’s a bit of growth in revenues as well, that could push an increase to $5MM.  At that level, the NHLPA would probably hold off on exercising its inflator to help claw back escrow payments.  A $5MM jump isn’t that significant in the grand scheme of things; it’s happened several times before already.

As for who benefits, there could be a small boost for the mid-tier players depending on who is still unsigned at that point.  Teams will pay up for whoever’s out there and if it’s middle-six players, then that group will get a nice bonus for a year.  However, the long-term eventuality is that the top players will be the main benefactors, just as they have been lately.  The second line winger isn’t getting much more now than they were a few years ago in free agency but salaries for top liners have gone up quicker.  That trend should continue after the TV deal is signed.

CapsFan34: Do Nicklas Backstrom or Braden Holtby get signed or do they hit the free agent market and what do you think their contracts would look like? Seems to me that the comparable for Backy is the Joe Thornton deal while Holtby is looking at a Bobrovsky style deal.

One thing is for sure – the Capitals can’t afford both of them.  They already have over $62MM in commitments for 2020-21 so new deals for them would push them over $80MM with several roster spots to be filled.  I expect that Backstrom will ultimately stick around while Holtby moves on.

As for what the contracts would look like, let’s start with Backstrom.  He’s a pretty safe bet to reach the 70-point mark having got there for six straight seasons since the lockout-shortened campaign (where he averaged a point per game).  He’s a reliable defensive player and isn’t a liability at the faceoff dot.  He’ll also be 32 next summer so while a max-term contract is off the table, a five or six-year deal is possible if not probable.  (That takes Thornton off the table as a comparable as has always gone with shorter-term pacts.)  His current AAV is $6.7MM and he should beat that given the relative scarcity of impact centers that are slated to become UFAs.  I wouldn’t expect it go higher than $8MM though on a long-term pact as there will inevitably be some front-loading in place with one or two of those years being tacked on to try to lower the AAV.

Holtby’s comparable is a little more direct in Sergei Bobrovsky’s seven-year, $70MM pact as you suggested.  The two have had numbers that are pretty close and like Bobrovsky, Holtby will be the undisputed top netminder available a year from now.  If the Capitals believe that Ilya Samsonov is their goalie of the future, it wouldn’t be wise to even entertain the idea of signing Holtby for that long.  Add or subtract a few hundred thousand to Bobrovsky’s $10MM AAV and that’s why Holtby’s next deal should look like with a new team.

jb10000lakes: With the Wild kind of stuck in no man’s land, will Parise (or Suter) agree to be traded to a contender; and if so, how much salary will the Wild need to eat? On a side note, is there any chance Zuccarello hasn’t signed that contract yet?

I touched on a similar question a few months ago in a previous mailbag so I won’t go into too much detail here.  If new GM Bill Guerin wanted to trade Ryan Suter, he could do so easily without needing to retain salary and get good value back.  Yes, the last couple of years could be rough but he’s still a legitimate top-pairing defenseman and those don’t come available very often.  The acquiring team would only have to have him for three years before the potential for salary cap recapture was basically mitigated as well and he easily has three years left (and then the really low salary years begin).  As for Parise, his injury history makes him a tougher sell even if he wanted to be moved.  I don’t think there’s a point where it would be justifiable to move him – they’d either have to retain so much of his contract (and the higher risk for cap recapture given the front-loaded contract) or take so little in return that they’d be better off just keeping him.

When it comes to Mats Zuccarello, I don’t quite get the negativity on his contract.  Is it too much term?  Sure, but the same can be said for most UFA deals.  $6MM for a 50-point winger isn’t a bargain but it’s not a drastic overpayment either.  I know the contract goes against the grain for a team that probably needs to rebuild but they should be able to get out of it via trade (assuming Zuccarello was to waive his no-move clause) without too much concern.

Rayno15: Are you surprised the Pens haven’t made a move to make room to get Pettersson back here? How do you see them making it happen?

Teams only have to be cap-compliant at the start of the season which is still more than a month away so no, I’m not surprised a trade hasn’t happened.  I expect to see a fair bit of movement over the next few weeks as some of the RFAs start to sign and in doing so, some of the remaining UFAs will as well.  That will give teams more certainty as to what they can or can’t do on the trade market and open up the windows for teams like Pittsburgh to make their required cap cuts.

Plan A would be to trade a veteran player like Bryan Rust, Erik Gudbranson, Jack Johnson, or even Nick Bjugstad who didn’t fit in all that great after being acquired.  Even if they had to take a player back to offset some of the money, that would free up enough room to re-sign Pettersson and even potentially leave a big of wiggle room for in-season moves.  That will take a bit of time to do depending on the rest of the market.

Plan B may be to just get creative with the waiver wire.  Chad Ruhwedel and Zach Trotman are capable depth options but both should clear waivers (or if they didn’t, they wouldn’t be big losses).  There’s $1.4MM right there.  Johnson would clear waivers because of his contract which would free up another $1.075MM in cap room.  It might take waiting until the season to start with this approach but they’d have enough space to re-sign Pettersson at that point and then they could shuffle the veterans back and forth between the minors to bank a bit of cap space in the early going of the season and take full advantage of having their AHL team nearby.  It’d be a tough pill to swallow for Johnson but it might just work.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Topics in this edition of the mailbag include what’s next for the Rangers, David Backes’ future in Boston, teams that could surprise, possible trade candidates over the next month, and Ottawa’s lack of spending.  If your question isn’t covered here, check back with last week’s column.

met man: Now that the dust has settled, do the Rangers trade or extend Chris Kreider?  What about Namestnikov?

It’s probably the status quo for the time being when it comes to Kreider.  The team has indicated that they expect him in training camp which was a subtle way to say let’s stop with the trade speculation.  That probably won’t happen though.  They’re going to have a hard enough time fitting him under the Upper Limit this season at his current $3.625MMMM rate.  Add a couple million to that on a long-term extension and the big penalty from the Kevin Shattenkirk buyout and it’s very difficult to see them being able to fit Kreider in a year from now even if the salary cap goes up a little bit.  That’s always going to keep him trade speculation.

I don’t expect a quick resolution to his case though.  They’ll find a way to get under the cap for 2019-20 without needing to move him and they’ll see how things play out.  If they get back into playoff contention, they’ll certainly consider holding on to him and try to use that as a case for why he should take a bit less than he could get elsewhere to stick around.  If they’re a bubble team or out of the postseason picture though, then a trade near the deadline becomes the likeliest outcome where he’d be one of the more prominent players available.

As for Namestnikov, they’ve been trying to move him for a while now with no takers.  I happen to think there’s still some potential upside with him – he’s only 26 and one year removed from a 22-goal, 48-point season.  Sure, it hasn’t worked out too well for him in New York but a change of scenery could get him back closer to 15 goals and 35 to 40 points.  Is that great value for $4MM?  Not really but he’d still be a useful player.  If the Rangers are open to retaining some of his contract, they could find a taker for him although the return wouldn’t be a strong one.  But that might be enough to get them back in cap compliance for next season so it may be a hit worth taking.

pitmanrich: Considering the moves the Rangers have made this summer and the high draft picks they’ve used over last two drafts is the rebuild over? And if so, how much pressure will coach Quinn be under to get results this season?

I don’t think it’s fair to say that the rebuild is entirely over.  This is still a team that’s going to be icing a lot of youngsters in prominent roles and with that, there will be inevitable growing pains, even with the additions of Artemi Panarin and Jacob Trouba.  This is a team that should certainly be improved and I don’t think I’d be overly shocked if they got into the playoff mix as there isn’t going to be a lot of separation between the third-place team in the Metropolitan and one that finds itself on the outside looking in at the postseason picture.  Accordingly, I would say that their rebuild has been accelerated but it’s still a year too early to call it over.

With that in mind, expectations shouldn’t be too high on David Quinn.  The priority for this season should be getting steady development out of players like Kaapo Kakko, Vitali Kravtsov, Filip Chytil, Lias Andersson, Brett Howden, and Adam Fox.  That’s the eventual young nucleus of this team with their high-priced veterans helping to give them enough of a push to get them over the top.  At least that’s the plan.  If their youngsters show signs of improvement towards living up to their draft billing, it’s a successful season regardless of where they finish in the standings.  Those are the results in which Quinn should be evaluated on.

mcase7187: Could the Bruins package a deal like David B?

It all depends on what the package includes.  Is it possible that Backes could be traded?  Sure.  If Milan Lucic (whose contract is twice as long) can be dealt, then Backes certainly could as well.  The question becomes, what is Boston going to part with to entice a team to take him?

With several teams needing to free up cap room in the coming weeks, it’s not a great time to be trying to move Backes.  Boston has a good core of young players to work with but GM Don Sweeney has been hesitant to move them out.  That’s certainly understandable but if he’s not willing to attach a sizable sweetener, it certainly complicates things.

With Backes now being able to be sent to the minors (his no-move clause converts to a partial no-trade now), it’s possible that Boston just opts to send him down and free up $1.075MM in cap room if they don’t bring someone up to replace him.  If not, about the only way that I could see him moving is if they are open to taking another bad contract in return.  Unless that contract carries a lesser cap hit, I have a hard time thinking a trade will happen.

Mr. Mark: Your way too early prediction of a team who could be better than most are anticipating and your team who won’t be as good as most are anticipating.

I think New Jersey is a team that could turn it around pretty quickly and they haven’t received a lot of attention this summer.  They’re only a year removed from being a playoff team and a healthy Taylor Hall will be huge.  P.K. Subban represents a big upgrade on the back end.  Jack Hughes should make an impact this season and Wayne Simmonds, though on the downside of his career, should still help as well.  Nico Hischier should continue to improve.  Cory Schneider finished up better down the stretch and fared well at the Worlds, a sign that he’s now fully recovered from his hip issues.  Add all of these elements together and you have a team that’s quietly poised to make some noise.

On the flip side of it, I could see this being the year that Pittsburgh starts to slide.  They were vulnerable last season and it’s fair to suggest that they’ve taken a step back this summer in terms of talent.  Their core is getting up there in age and I have concerns about Matt Murray being the type of goalie that can carry a team if need be.  I wouldn’t be shocked if they finished in a top-three spot in the Metropolitan Division (it’s hard to bet against Sidney Crosby) but at the same time, missing the playoffs entirely is something that I could certainly see happening.

jdawglasalle: Who do you believe are the biggest trade candidates that will likely be traded before pre-season starts?

Beyond Namestnikov, Pittsburgh’s Nick Bjugstad stands out as a good trade candidate.  The Penguins need to free up some money and he didn’t have a big impact after being acquired from Florida.  He’s still young enough and only a year removed from a career season.  Although his $4.1MM AAV is on the higher side, I think some team will take a chance on him.

As for an under-the-radar candidate, I’ll pick Buffalo’s Zemgus Girgensons.  The Sabres could stand to free up a bit of room and he basically has had the same year the last four seasons.  A change of scenery could do him some good and I think Sabres could still get a bit of value for him.

Originally, I had T.J. Brodie pegged as a likely candidate but with Juuso Valimaki out long-term, that’s the end of that.  They still need to free up some cap room for a Matthew Tkachuk contract so I’d put the odds of Michael Frolik moving a bit higher now.  He’s a useful player, albeit at a fairly high price tag ($4.3MM) and with his limited usage last season, it’s hard to imagine him invoking his partial no-trade clause if a trade was to present itself.  I don’t know if it’ll get done before the start of the exhibition season but if not by then, probably soon after.

melkor77: What happens to all the RFA’s waiting for Marner to sign when he holds out the remainder of 2019?

First, I don’t see Mitch Marner opting to sit out the entire season.  That would be too much money to leave on the table.  They’d get a one-year deal done before it comes to that.  Having said that, I think it’s very possible he’s unsigned when the puck drops on regular season action (and he won’t be the only one).

It’s a waiting game right now but eventually, someone’s going to blink.  That will probably come close to the start of training camp when one or two sign.  A couple more will go at some point during the preseason.  That will leave probably three-to-five unsigned into the season.  It’s easy to say let’s wait for Marner as he’ll likely top the market in mid-August.  It’s a lot harder to do so once the games are being played.

ThePriceWasRight: I know the talk was that the league would not step in on the Sens ownership situation as long as cheques were not bouncing, but seeing as that it’s quite likely the ACTUAL dollars he is paying significantly is less than the floor, when does the PA step in to say that this could limit future player earnings.

I don’t think the NHLPA would have a leg to stand on here.  It’s not as if Ottawa’s low spending is going to negatively affect the salary cap as that’s based on total league revenues, not actual cap spending.  I think their decision to keep players like Marian Gaborik and Clarke MacArthur around will actually help future player earnings when it comes to the Senators.  Young players that wouldn’t be getting the playing time if they were actually trying to be competitive will get better numbers than they otherwise would have which will yield better second contracts.  (At least it should, in theory.)

Sure, it’s possible that other teams could be motivated by Ottawa’s thriftiness but it’s hard to think they’d be willing to go to quite this extreme.  The PR from doing so is quite negative and while bad press is something that the Senators aren’t too worried about, most owners are.  If others did follow suit, then it’d become something that would come up in CBA discussions a year from now, perhaps by shrinking the gap between the floor and the midpoint.

It’s not a pretty situation in Ottawa at the moment but as long as they spend the minimum that they’re required to, there isn’t much the league or the NHLPA can do about it.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.