PHR Mailbag

Topics in this edition of the mailbag include Ryan Ellis’ future with the Flyers, playoff discussion, Evander Kane’s grievance process, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

InFletchWeTrust: Rumors flying around that Ryan Ellis may not want to be in Philly, and that is the reason for the yet-to-be-released nature of the injury that has kept him out all year…if true, sure seems like it just blows up Fletcher’s retooling plan…could we possibly be looking at a season even worse than this one? Who’s gonna take Ellis’ salary on, especially after a four-game season?

I don’t think there’s much to those reports.  Yesterday, Ellis told reporters, including Olivia Reiner of the Philadelphia Inquirer, that it took visits to several specialists and a wide range of testing before they were finally able to identify the root cause of the injury – a multi-layered one in his pelvic region.  Perhaps the reason that it took so long to identify the injury wasn’t because he wanted out and was being difficult but rather that the injury took a long time to identify?  That makes a lot more sense to me.

Ellis, who also clearly stated his desire to remain in Philadelphia in that same press conference, has been around long enough to recognize that missing 78 games due to injury in a season more or less tanks that person’s trade value.  Even if he wanted out, he’d be smart enough to know that a trade request coming from his situation would almost certainly fall on deaf ears.  It doesn’t matter who could take his salary on – he’s not going anywhere.  He wouldn’t have solved all of the issues for the Flyers this season but a full year from him would really make that back end a lot better.

Nha Trang: Alright, here’s one: what team’s going to be the surprise club that makes an unexpectedly deep postseason run?

My first thought is whoever comes out of the Minnesota-St. Louis series.  Both of those teams are good enough to give Colorado a good run for their money in the second round.  The Avs could get Nashville without Juuse Saros which could be a quick series, giving them a long layoff and with the intensity I expect we’ll see between the Blues and Wild, that could hurt Colorado early in a potential series as they adapt after what could be an easier series against the Predators.  If that’s enough to see Minnesota or St. Louis move on, they’d be going deeper than many expect.

I can’t think of a great option from the East to pick as I don’t really see any big upsets happening in the first round.  If Boston can get by Carolina (which could happen with the Hurricanes dealing with goalie issues of their own), they’d have a good shot at getting out of that side of the bracket which would surprise many but I don’t think we’ll be overly shocked at the results in that conference in the next couple of weeks.

urban shocker: Alternatively, which team is overrated and will fold like a cheap suit?

I’m hesitant to call a team overrated as it’s a good accomplishment to make it to the playoffs.  But if you’re asking me for a team that could be a quick out, Dallas comes to mind.  Teams with a negative goal differential typically don’t fare well in the postseason (although there have been some exceptions) but I don’t think their goaltending is good enough to shut down Calgary’s attack while Jacob Markstrom and Calgary’s back end are quite strong.

In terms of a perceived contender that could go early, Tampa Bay comes to mind.  Yes, they’re the reigning back-to-back champions but that’s actually a main reason why I’m a little leery about them.  They’ve played a ton of games the last two years, playing well into the summer.  We saw this season that the other teams that played deep into the playoffs last year get decimated by injuries (Vegas and Montreal, in particular) and I can’t help but think the Lightning could get caught by that at some point.  Maybe it’s not in the first round but I wouldn’t be surprised if they go out earlier than expected.  Carolina could be in trouble depending on their goaltending situation as well.

W H Twittle: Injuries are a big part of the playoffs. Which teams are less likely to go into a tailspin if one of their top d-men gets injured and which teams are most vulnerable?

As Montreal showed last year, teams can overcome iffy defensive depth (their bottom two defenders hardly played) as long as they have a strong top four.  For me, that means the teams that have strong third pairings with players that can move up are the ones that shouldn’t be hindered as much in that scenario although losing a top rearguard would be problematic for everyone.

In terms of teams that have the strong defensive depth to potentially overcome a top player going down, Colorado comes to mind.  Assuming he stays healthy, Bowen Byram is capable of moving into the top four and their depth defenders (Jack Johnson and Ryan Murray, when healthy) can be counted on.  Boston’s depth is pretty strong as well and while Carolina isn’t as deep, they have five top-four defenders on their roster that would help mitigate the loss.

On the other hand, Nashville’s back end certainly isn’t as deep as it once was and losing one of their better options would be quite costly, especially if it’s coupled with Saros’ uncertainty in goal.  The Kings have already been dealt a tough blow with Drew Doughty’s absence and another core blueliner going down would be quite costly.  In the East, the Rangers look a little vulnerable on that front; I was a bit surprised they didn’t do more on the back end at the deadline beyond adding Justin Braun.  Washington couldn’t afford any upgrades at the deadline but their defense corps would greatly be thinned out with a key player going down as well.

Johnny Z: Is there a chance that Kevin Fiala signs an Offer Sheet? 16 teams could do a 5 x $8M.

You’re correct in that there are that many teams that have the draft picks to do that type of offer sheet but of those, how many have the cap space to do it?  Of those that do, how many are rebuilding and couldn’t really justify parting with three draft picks (a first, second, and a third) to bring Fiala in?  Now we’re dealing with a pretty small list.

Is it possible that he signs an offer sheet?  In theory, sure.  Minnesota’s vulnerable with their cap situation for next season and those are the teams to try to take advantage of.  But I don’t think he’s really a viable candidate for a couple of reasons.

First, I don’t think his situation gets to the point where an offer sheet is an option.  Either he’s traded before the start of free agency or the Wild have opened up the cap space to keep him by moving someone else so I’m not sure he gets to the point where a team could even offer him one.  But for the sake of discussion, let’s say it gets that far.  I think Fiala would be more inclined to file for arbitration and take himself out of the offer sheet picture, get a one-year deal with a big raise, and hit unrestricted free agency in his prime.  There should be more interest in him as a UFA than as an RFA through an offer sheet so why not wait for a stronger market?  An offer sheet could happen but I don’t think Minnesota should be concerned about the possibility.

selanne 76: Assuming that the Jets clean house from a coaching perspective, who comes in as Head Coach to shake up and demand accountability from this leadership group? Will it even be the same leadership group?

Assuming Dave Lowry isn’t back behind the bench next season, this will be one of the biggest decisions of GM Kevin Cheveldayoff’s tenure.  This is a team that’s built to win now, not a few years from now.  For me, that’s a strike against most of the first-time head coaching candidates; they need someone who is going to get under their skin quickly and whip them into shape.  A few years from now, the act will wear thin and that will coincide with a likely rebuild.

Writing those sentences out, John Tortorella immediately comes to mind.  He gets buy-in from his teams quickly and isn’t going to put up with the varying levels of effort that plagued the Jets this season.  They need that but I don’t think he’s necessarily the right fit to unlock the offensive potential this group has.  If Vancouver doesn’t get something done with Bruce Boudreau, I like that fit.  Jim Montgomery is someone that’s in between those two.  He has some experience and success running an NHL bench in Dallas, albeit playing low-event hockey that may not be the best for Winnipeg.  But I think he can fix some of the defensive concerns they have and be a fresh voice that this team would certainly benefit from.  I think he’d be a good fit overall for them so I’ll pick him.

I think it will largely be the same core group in place although Mark Scheifele’s comments to reporters, including Sportsnet’s Ken Wiebe postgame today certainly raise some eyebrows.  Cheveldayoff is known to be one of the safer general managers out there and assuming they do bring in a new voice (which could turn into several if there are changes on the bench as well), he may be inclined to think that will be the spark they need.  I lean that way myself, actually.  Winnipeg has a pretty strong core group in place.  A fresh voice and some depth improvement may very well be enough to get them back into the playoff picture next season.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include early award predictions, an assessment of Nazem Kadri’s pending free agency, surplus depth for the Kings, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back for it in last weekend’s mailbag.

NHATrang: How about some predictions for the major trophies: Hart, Norris, Vezina, Selke?

Hart Trophy – Auston Matthews (Toronto) – With there being several quality candidates, a strong finish could give someone the boost to get the award.  Right now, Matthews is having quite the strong finish to his season and has a good chance at hitting 60 goals.  That should make him the front-runner.

Norris Trophy – Roman Josi (Nashville) – There’s a very good case to make for Colorado’s Cale Makar but Josi has the better offensive numbers and whether we like it or not, that will stand out to some voters.  I think what also will help Josi is that the Predators weren’t expected to be a playoff threat while the Avs have been viewed as contenders all season.  Josi helping lead Nashville into the thick of the playoff race will carry some weight.

Vezina Trophy – Igor Shesterkin (NY Rangers) – He’s first in the NHL in save percentage (.935) and second in goals against average (2.10) and while he hasn’t had quite as high of a workload as some other starters, he has played enough that it won’t be held against him.  It’s his to lose down the stretch.

Selke Trophy – Patrice Bergeron (Boston) – He still is elite at faceoffs, his possession numbers are elite, he kills penalties, and still contributes at a top-line level.  He hasn’t won in four years but has been a finalist each time and there’s no reason to think he won’t be in the mix.  If some writers think this could be his final year as some have speculated, that could garner him a few first-place votes as well from those who may want to send him off on top.

Tim Wilson: Much has been made of the poor performance of Seattle’s goaltending tandem in their first season. I’m wondering how the Kraken’s team defensive stats such as shots allowed compare to Grubauer and Driedger’s 20/21 teams, Colorado and Florida.

Seattle is only allowing 29.1 shots per game this season, the fourth-fewest in the entire league and second-fewest in the Western Conference.  They’re trying to play a defensively responsible style knowing that they don’t have the firepower to win and have done a decent job at doing so.  For comparison, Colorado last year was tops in the league at just 25.4 while Florida was in the middle of the pack at 30.0.

A lot of their struggles simply stem from poor goaltending.  Philipp Grubauer is dead last among qualifying goaltenders at -29.9 goals saved above expected, per Moneypuck.  That’s just in 50 games too, or 0.6 extra per game on average than he should be allowing.  How many more wins would Seattle have if he was strictly middle of the pack hovering around the zero mark in that stat?  They wouldn’t be a playoff team but they wouldn’t be battling for the top draft lottery odds either.  Chris Driedger has done better at -1.1 goals saved above expected so he’s basically average on that front.

If you’re looking for some reason for optimism, Grubauer has been a good goalie for a while now and it’s not as if he somehow forgot how to play the position upon signing with Seattle.  I’m confident he’ll be a lot better next season.  Probably not enough to get them into the playoffs – they have a long way to go before that happens – but their goaltending shouldn’t be anywhere near this level in 2022-23.

Y2KAK: Early top FA predictions please!!!

This is a tough one to answer right now in that the season isn’t over yet so there’s still the potential for some fluctuation in players’ values.  Personally, I don’t dig in too much into the UFA group in terms of fits and potential contracts until we start working on our annual Top 50 UFA post which is still more than two months away.  But here’s a very quick overview of some of the bigger names.

Johnny Gaudreau – Re-signs in Calgary.  Matthew Tkachuk’s pending RFA contract will definitely make this a tough squeeze but there’s a way to make it work if they go with a lot of minimum-salary players to round out the roster.

Nazem Kadri – I’ll look at him in more detail shortly but I don’t see him staying with Colorado.

Filip Forsberg – Re-signs with Nashville.  There’s mutual interest in getting a deal done and while it’s going to contain elements the Predators don’t like (signing bonuses and trade protection), they won’t let that ultimately nix a new contract.

Penguins – Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang re-sign, Bryan Rust moves on.  Malkin winds up a little lower than his current AAV while Letang is a bit higher.  If they could find a way to move Jason Zucker without taking salary back, they might be able to take a late run at Rust as well.

Patrice Bergeron – Re-signs with Boston.  I wouldn’t be surprised if they go year-to-year from here on out, allowing for some creativity in terms of salary and performance bonus structure.

Claude Giroux – He’s not re-signing with Florida, that’s pretty much a given.  There seems to be a bit of smoke with his hometown Senators and that would make a lot of sense as that team needs an impact veteran to really round out their improving forward group.

John Klingberg – I wouldn’t be shocked if Dallas eventually worked out a deal with him but for now, I’ll say he moves on.  If Detroit is ready to flip the switch and go for it, I think they’ll be seriously in the mix at least.

Ville Husso – I pegged him to New Jersey in a hypothetical scenario in last weekend’s mailbag so I’ll stick with them.

M34: What are Kadri’s next contract terms and which team gives it to him?

Boy, did Kadri ever pick a good time for a career year.  He sits 13th in league scoring heading into today’s action and, perhaps more notably, sixth above centers.  What better way to argue that he’s capable of being a top pivot than by being among the top-scoring middlemen in the league.

That said, I don’t he’s going to be able to command the type of deal that a top-producing center typically would.  He’ll be 32 when next season starts so there will be concern about a drop-off occurring sooner than later.  His previous career high in points is 61 so it’s not as if there’s a track record of him scoring like this.  Plus, there’s his lengthy suspension history – six in total.  At this point, the suspensions are getting more severe each time to the point where his next one could be in the double-digits.  That will make some teams hesitant.

In spite of all that, he’s heading for a nice contract.  His maximum term, assuming it’s not Colorado that re-signs him, is seven years and while teams may not want to sign him for that long, that final year or two could be used to smooth out the AAV a little bit.  So I’ll say he gets the max-term with a seven-year deal with an AAV around $8MM.  I don’t think he’ll be worth that contract in the end but he plays a premium position which will help to mitigate some of the aforementioned concerns.

W H Twittle: What can the L.A. Kings be expected to do with their prospects who are mostly RDs or Cs? Cs can be moved to the wings if they can score. But moving defensemen to their wrong side is seldom a good move. Do they start looking to trade a few prospects this summer or before the draft for the players they feel will help them next year?

While it isn’t ideal to have defensemen on their wrong side, it’s quite common.  Most NHL teams have at least one blueliner on his off-side in each game.  It’s usually a lefty on the right but it’s not implausible that a righty can go on the left if need be.  I’m also not convinced it’s a logjam they need to deal with right now.  Jordan Spence could plausibly be back in the minors, leaving Drew Doughty, Matt Roy, and Sean Durzi as the three that break camp.  It’s not a situation that necessarily has to be dealt with in the near future.

As for their center situation, I agree that some can move to the wing but that is a short-term solution.  Potential impact centers are always in high demand but the Kings could run the risk of devaluing them if they stay on the wing for too long.  If they’re shifting towards win-now mode, yes, moving some of that surplus could make sense.  The question is who to move.  They probably don’t want to move Alex Turcotte while Gabriel Vilardi and Lias Andersson have seen their value dip; Rasmus Kupari has had a nice year in a depth role but his value isn’t sky-high.  If they think Turcotte still could be a top center a few years from now, that could make Quinton Byfield the one to watch for if they want to move a promising youngster for a shorter-term difference-maker.

The Duke: All-knowing and -seeing MB Crystal Ball, please weigh in on the following queries: 1. How do the SJS and Preds’ goaltending shake out next season and the next few years? 2. Career trajectories for Mssrs Zadina & Sandin (are either on new teams soon)? 3. And finally, what team does John Gibson suit up for next season? As always, much thanks.

1) Let’s look at San Jose first.  Obviously, they need to move a goalie this summer.  My guess is that it’s James Reimer as whoever is GM at that time will likely want to give the two younger goals (Adin Hill and Kaapo Kahkonen) a longer look.  They’re both 25 at the moment and in a perfect world, that’s their tandem for the foreseeable future.  They don’t have a top goalie prospect in their system and as they have several high-priced contracts for a while, they need to go with cheaper options.  A platoon costing somewhere between $6MM to $7MM combined would help so I expect those two will be given a chance to be longer-term options.

As for Nashville, theirs is a little easier to predict.  I don’t see anyone supplanting Juuse Saros as the starter as long as Saros is under contract which is through the 2024-25 season.  By then, Yaroslav Askarov should be NHL-ready.  They’ll need a bridge backup for a couple of years – someone like Reimer would make a lot of sense, to be honest – but there will be several of those available in free agency each year so they could just look to go year-to-year with low-cost options.

2) Filip Zadina – I have my doubts that he’ll be able to live up to his draft billing and become the top-line winger many felt he had the potential to be.  That said, he certainly has some offensive talent which will keep him in the league for a while.  I could see him being a player who hovers around 40-50 points most years (slightly higher at times) and bounces between the second and third lines.  That’s a pretty good career trajectory overall even if it’s a bit underwhelming relative to where he was picked.  As for being on a new team in the somewhat near future, I think there’s a good chance that happens.

Rasmus Sandin – I’ve talked about him in the past and I don’t see him being a high-end point-getter in the NHL.  To me, he projects as a secondary offensive threat, someone that will have a floor of 25 points every year and could creep up over 40 in a good year.  I also see no reason why Toronto would want to move him anytime soon, they need cost-controllable blueliners and he’ll be that for a little while yet, even through his first (and possibly second) trip through restricted free agency.

3) Unless Gibson wants out and makes it known, I have no reason to think it won’t be Anaheim.  If you go back and look at the trade market for good goalies, the word underwhelming comes to mind.  When was the last time an above average goalie that was signed for several more seasons was moved for a return that made you think ‘wow, that’s a really good trade’?  Certainly not lately.  If the options are either take an underwhelming return or hold onto Gibson, the latter path is the right way to go for them.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include what’s next for Philadelphia, Shea Weber’s contract, guessing the future of New Jersey’s goaltending, an overview of how long teams can hold the rights to a prospect, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag column.

FearTheWilson: The Islanders have one of the oldest teams in the league, limited cap space, lack scoring depth, and need to sign some defensemen this summer. Is there any way out of this mess or will they be just another team who came close but couldn’t win?

Based on GM Lou Lamoriello’s recent extensions, the plan to get out of their struggles is to double down on the current core.  I get why as the core group is decent, Ilya Sorokin is a solid goalie and the way they play works in the playoffs.  With a more normal schedule that doesn’t involve a 13-game road trip to start the season that’s followed by a particularly rough COVID outbreak, they very well could have been in the mix.

They can save some money if they can find a suitable trade for Semyon Varlamov and find a cheaper backup which would allow them to put a couple million or so into their back end (or another offensive forward), that would help.  And with Noah Dobson being the only impact player that needs a new contract, they will have a bit of wiggle room to try to upgrade the roster.

In Lamoriello’s eyes at least, the solution is a couple of roster improvements and stability.  If they get that, then they should be in the Wild Card mix and as we’ve seen, if they can get into the playoffs in 2023 with the group they have and the way they play, they could win a round or two.

Black Ace57: What is the Flyers’ plan? They haven’t really established a core ready to contend and they don’t want to rebuild.

In Fletch We Trust: Thoughts on Flyers HC for next year? Is Chuck gonna stick with Yeo? Or does he (I hope) see the need to go outside the organization and find someone to help change the culture?

Let’s combine the Flyers questions.  The second part of the first question actually is the framework for their plan.  To me, it seems like they think they have enough quality core pieces in place to be a playoff-caliber team.  Make a couple of tweaks, hope for some better luck with injuries (Ryan Ellis and Sean Couturier in particular), and they could very well be in the thick of a Wild Card battle a year from now.  I know things haven’t gone well lately but I look at that team on paper and think it has the potential to be a lot more competitive than they’ve shown this season.

I’m particularly interested to see what happens in free agency.  Do they find a way to clear James van Riemsdyk’s deal off the roster and try to go after a big fish to basically replace Claude Giroux?  I suspect that is their intention and if they can find a way to add another core piece, their fortunes could turn around fairly quickly.  Not to the point of being a contender, mind you, but their approach feels like the target is simply to get to the playoffs and a few tweaks could theoretically be enough to get them there.

Speaking of tweaks, I expect this will be one of them.  I’d be surprised if Mike Yeo has the interim tag lifted at the end of the season.  He’s the holdover from Alain Vigneault’s staff and it’s not as if they’ve been better since the coaching change.  If GM Chuck Fletcher truly believes in this core, a new voice is one card that can be played to try to give this team a spark and potentially provide a culture change as well.  Having someone currently around the team on a day-to-day basis behind the bench would make it very difficult to accomplish that particular objective.

Nha Trang: San Jose: $70 million committed next year to only 17 NHL contracts, and major bucks committed to elderly, underproducing players. Buy out Vlasic? Someone else? Bribe another team to take Burns’ or Karlsson’s contract off their hands? Hold their noses and pray? What’s the solution?

A buyout of Marc-Edouard Vlasic’s contract would only push the problem down the road as the varied structure of the deal actually would yield buyout costs of roughly $4.2MM in 2024-25 and $5.2MM in 2025-26.  Sure, they’d save a fair bit on the first two seasons but that’s only a short-term fix.

They’re going to have to move a goalie – presumably either Adin Hill or James Reimer – which will save a little over $2MM in cap room but most of that will be redirected to Kaapo Kahkonen.  I suspect they will try to get out of Radim Simek’s deal and with only two years left on it, they may be able to find a taker in a swap that would bring a forward back.  Even Nick Bonino’s deal could be replaced with someone making a bit less.

There is, of course, one other wild card – Evander Kane.  Will their contract termination stand without any cap penalties or will there be some sort of retroactive penalty similar to Mike Richards and the Kings in the past?  If yes, how much will it cost?  That will help determine if there is a bigger cost-cutting move to make.

As things stand, I think they can fill out their roster and be cap-compliant next year.  They won’t be any better than they are now but it may be their only viable solution.  They’re in a tough spot and they don’t have the prospect pool to get themselves out of trouble just yet.  In the summer of 2023, Brent Burns is only down to two years left which will make him a little easier to move than he is now.  Vlasic would be down to three years and maybe a move is slightly easier then.  In the meantime, they’re going to need to just tread water.

W H Twittle: Are there teams other than Vegas and Minnesota that may be interested in Shea Weber’s contract? And why?

I don’t think either of those teams would be interested in him at all.  Minnesota’s was suggested as a hypothetical and it was quickly pointed out that it wouldn’t work for them and since then, there has been no suggestion that they’re actually interested.  As for Vegas, why would they take on four years of an LTIR contract?  Yes, it’s quite possible they try for another LTIR deal if they want to try the Evgenii Dadonov move again but there are contracts that can be acquired that are a lot shorter than four years.  It stands to reason they’d opt for one of those.  Ryan Kesler was preferable because his deal is an expiring one and they’d have minimal lingering commitments (just the rest of John Moore’s deal).

While Weber is likely on LTIR for the rest of his career (the league hasn’t signed off on that particular ruling yet which is why there hasn’t been an official announcement), there are lingering commitments.  He still counts against the 50-contract limit, his $7.857MM AAV is factored into calculations for the offseason cap (10% above the Upper Limit each year), a chunk of the salary has to be paid as the deal isn’t fully insured, and if it’s a cap-spending team that has his contract, they have an inability to bank cap space which means that any bonuses earned in a season become a carryover penalty for next year.  This is why Montreal wants to move him even though they haven’t even fully gotten clear of salary cap recapture liability yet with his deal (although the amount they’d potentially be on the hook for would be less than $1MM in total which pales in comparison to Nashville’s number).

So, who might be interested?  It sounds like there were talks with Arizona which makes a bit of sense as they have no intention of spending to the cap ceiling and would rather hang around the cap floor.  With Weber’s salary being lower than his AAV, there’s some potential for savings in total dollars being spent which, with as small of an arena as they’ll be playing out of for a little while, is notable.  (It’s the same reason that they took on Bryan Little’s contract from Winnipeg.)  But they’re about the only viable fit for that contract for now because of how much longer it runs.

MillvilleMeteor: What would a trade package look like for the Ducks to trade up and grab Shane Wright at the number one spot in the draft?

More than they should be willing to pay.  Considering Wright is projected to be an impact center, Trevor Zegras or Mason McTavish would have to be the focal point of the offer with Anaheim also needing to part with their first-rounder which is hovering around 10th overall at the moment.  Considering the almost always exorbitant asking price for a first-overall selection (which is why they basically never move), there’s probably another piece that would need to be involved as well in the range of a late first or early second-rounder or an equivalent prospect.

There’s a high sticker shock with a number one pick and frankly, it’s not one anyone should really be willing to pay this year.  Wright’s going to be a very good NHL center but he’s not a franchise player, not compared to the top picks in the class of 2023.  If you’re going to make the big move and cash in some of those younger assets, it needs to be for someone that you can really build around.  I’m not sure Wright is that caliber of player.

With the moves they’ve recently made, Anaheim is in a spot where they need to stay on the course that they’re on.  Make these extra picks they’ve acquired and continue to develop their young core.  In a year or two when their top youngsters are further along in their development, then they can look towards some win-now pieces.  But in terms of pick or prospect consolidation, I don’t think that’s the route the Ducks should be taking.

SpeakOfTheDevil: Who are the Devils’ 1A and 1B goalies next year? Assuming Bernier is done and Blackwood gets traded.

I’m not convinced Mackenzie Blackwood is ultimately dealt but I’ll play along with the premise and pick a new tandem.  This isn’t a great UFA year in terms of starters.  Darcy Kuemper is available but I don’t think he’d look at New Jersey as a viable option unless they vastly overpaid in salary.  Marc-Andre Fleury probably isn’t going there and Jack Campbell looks like a bit of a risk now.  That leaves Ville Husso who, quite frankly, is also a bit of a risk given his limited track record.  That should limit his market to an extent where if the Devils were willing to take the plunge on a medium-term contract in the $4MM range, that might be enough to get him.

But with Husso’s limited track record, they’d need a fairly proven platoon partner and that’s not coming from free agency.  Let’s turn to the trade front then.  Jeremy Swayman’s season with Boston could be enough to get them to move on from Linus Ullmark’s contract (three years, $5MM AAV left after this season) as long as they get a decent goalie in return.  Perhaps someone like Blackwood who could look better behind the back end of the Bruins?  That would save them some short-term money (which is important with Patrice Bergeron up this summer and David Pastrnak next offseason) while giving them a serviceable second option for Swayman while Ullmark would give New Jersey a more proven partner for Husso.

The combined AAV for the tandem would be on the higher side compared to other teams but the Devils have ample cap space at their disposal and can afford it.  An Ullmark-Husso tandem would certainly be an upgrade on what they have now with short enough commitments in terms of the length of the contracts to not block someone like Nico Daws if he shows he’s ready for full-time NHL duty down the road.

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It has certainly been an eventful past few weeks around the NHL with a very busy trade deadline plus a rare trade that was approved and later invalidated by the league.  On top of that, the push for the playoffs is heating up with battles for seeding in the Eastern Conference and several spots up for grabs in the very tight Western Conference.

With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of the PHR Mailbag.  If you missed the last one, it was broken into two parts.  The first one focused on several trade deadline scenarios while the second looked at how St. Louis can afford to keep pending UFA Ville Husso, the future of Winnipeg’s core forward group, and much more.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. The mailbag will run on the weekend.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Ville Husso’s future with St. Louis, whether or not it’s time for Winnipeg to shake up their core, building up Detroit’s back end, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

@JoeBad34TD: Sabres: It’s time to move on from Mittelstadt, Miller, Eakin, and Olofsson. Miller and Eakin are vets that may get you some later picks.  Mittelstadt and Olofsson are young but not the right fit for this team’s future. Do you see a trade market for these players and at what value?

I agree with you on the assessment of Cody Eakin and Colin Miller – both are candidates to be moved for draft picks so there’s really nothing more to say about those two.

As for the two younger players, I don’t think there’s a great market for Casey Mittelstadt right now.  He has struggled since his rookie season and hasn’t been healthy all that much this year.  With two more years left on his deal at $2.5MM per, Buffalo would be selling low if they moved him.  They’re not in a position where they should be selling low so holding onto him is the smarter play from a valuation standpoint; it’s not as if his value can get much lower than it would be right now so why not hold onto him, make some moves to bolster the roster over the summer, and see how he fits in with the new-look team?  Maybe there’s a better fit and if that doesn’t happen, maybe he produces a bit more to up his trade value.

Then there’s Victor Olofsson.  I tend to agree that he’s not a great fit for Buffalo moving forward but again, they’re not exactly selling high on him either.  He has struggled this year and has just 10 goals in 49 games with a $3.25MM qualifying offer looming large this summer.  If they know that they don’t want to pay that, then it’s a case of taking what you can get now which might be a mid-round pick if the Sabres retain on the contract.  If GM Kevyn Adams is leaning towards tendering that offer though, they might have a shot at a swap of underachieving wingers in the summer.  It’s not going to be an overly exciting return, however.

Y2KAK: What are reasonable moves the Islanders make at the trade deadline?

While they won’t be able to get much for their rentals (headlined by winger Cal Clutterbuck), GM Lou Lamoriello would be wise to try to get a couple of draft picks through moving some of them.  They haven’t had more than six selections over the last three years and only have five for this summer’s draft so getting closer to a full complement of picks would be a reasonable move.

I honestly don’t expect a whole lot more from them.  This is a team that has been good enough to make some decent playoff runs lately so I think Lamoriello will look at this and feel that they could be back in the thick of things next season when they don’t have a massive road trip, get hit hard by positive COVID tests, and have a bunch of injuries.  With that in mind, I don’t know how much he really wants to change things.

One move I could see them looking into is trading Semyon Varlamov.  Ilya Sorokin is clearly their goalie of the present and while they want someone who will probably play a bit more than an average backup behind him, that player doesn’t need to cost $5MM like Varlamov does.  He’s signed for next season and with the trade market being relatively thin in terms of impact goalies available, the 33-year-old could be a candidate to be moved.  It might have to be in the summer but a deadline trade can’t be ruled out either.

bighiggy: With the emergence of Husso, do the Blues look to sign Husso so he doesn’t depart at the end of the season, and then try to trade Binnington? Or let Husso walk and hope Binnington plays better?

The Blues would like to keep Husso and in a perfect world, they find a way to keep both.  Husso is a fascinating UFA case this summer.  He’s having a great year (2.24 GAA, .928 SV% in 24 games) but he only has 41 career NHL appearances under his belt.  Is that enough to land him top dollar on the open market?  Probably not.  But could he land something similar to Alex Nedeljkovic’s deal with Detroit – two years, $3MM AAV?  That wouldn’t shock me.

Now with that estimate, can they afford to keep Husso?  I think they can.  If they opt to let David Perron walk in free agency and fill his spot with someone like Jake Neighbours who is still on his cheap entry-level deal, that might be enough of a shuffle in terms of allocating cap dollars to make it work if they go with low-cost pieces to round out the roster as they’re likely to do.  If they don’t want to do that, then I suspect Husso would walk and Binnington would enter next season as the undisputed starter as if they can’t/won’t pay Husso in the $3MM range, they’re not getting someone that can push for the starting job for less than that.  With Binnington’s struggles, it’s hard to see a viable scenario where he leaves and Husso becomes the starter.

selanne76: Should the Jets make a move to shake up their leadership group? If so, who goes where and what should be the return?

I have to admit, I really like Winnipeg’s core group.  It’s a good mix of veterans and younger players and they’re all capable of scoring.  Breaking that up is risky.  But this core has been together for a while and hasn’t gotten it done in terms of playoff success and even getting to the postseason this year is going to be tough.

Personally, I’d give them one more opportunity next season.  Andrew Copp probably won’t be back and if Paul Stastny departs as well, that gives the Jets some money to work with to reshape the bottom six.  I’d like to see their depth improved as that has been an issue this year; going with low-cost players because they make the minimum or close to it makes the cap work but puts a lot of extra pressure on that top group.

I also could see a coaching change happening.  With Paul Maurice leaving midseason, they were in a tough spot and elevating Dave Lowry to the interim role was the logical choice.  But if they miss the playoffs, it’s an opportunity to bring a new voice and system in; perhaps that gives them the spark they were missing.

If they decided to make a change to really shake it up, my guess would be that Nikolaj Ehlers would be the one to go.  It’s hard to move Mark Scheifele when they don’t have a sure-fire replacement in the system (I like Cole Perfetti as a winger more than a center from a long-term standpoint) and Pierre-Luc Dubois isn’t a true number one and might not have the trade value he did when Winnipeg got him with now two fewer years of team control.  Blake Wheeler won’t bring back much with his age and contract and Kyle Connor isn’t going anywhere.

As for what Ehlers could bring back, it’d all depend on what they’d be doing.  If they were doing a rebuild, a first-rounder and a top prospect would be the key elements of a return.  If it’s a core shakeup, it’d be another top-six winger that’s signed or at least under team control for as long as Ehlers is signed for (through 2024-25).

2012orioles: Even if the Capitals move Samsonov, what value does he bring being an RFA after the season?

Not as much as you might think at first glance.  When was the last time a goaltender was traded in a move that made anyone think ‘wow, that’s a big price to pay’?  It doesn’t happen very often and with the year he’s having, he’s probably not going to buck the trend.

I think Ilya Samsonov can be a starter in the NHL or at least a 1A part of a platoon.  He’s not going to be able to command that type of return with a save percentage that’s just above .900 though, nor is he going to be able to land the type of contract that’s commensurate with that level of a player (high-$3MM range for a 1A, considerably more for a starter) this summer.  Another one-year, prove it type of deal is probably coming.

That actually hurts Samsonov’s trade value a little bit in my eyes.  He has two years of team control left but a one-year deal this summer takes him to a spot where he can opt for arbitration next summer and head to unrestricted free agency in his prime.  The Rangers will likely be moving Alexandar Georgiev for cap reasons this summer, another pending RFA who has had similar hot and cold spells in the NHL and that also doesn’t help Washington’s cause.

When I first saw this question, the word that immediately came to mind in terms of value was underwhelming.  Regardless of whether it’s a futures-based trade or he’s moved for a veteran, any return for Samsonov (if he winds up being traded) is going to yield an underwhelming return.

Detroit_SP: How do the Red Wings address the left side of the defense? They have given up over 6 GAA in the recent stretch and it’s mostly due to left side deficiencies (Leddy, DeKeyser, etc.)

I don’t see a lot of top two D-men in FA that fit with the Red Wings timeline.

Can they swing for Chychrun without giving up Seider, Edvinsson, or Raymond? I imagine Berggren would be going the other way, as unfortunate as that would be. Combination involving him and then from Wallinder, Sebrango, McIsaac, Johannson, Mazur, picks? I’d prefer to avoid 2023 picks given the draft prowess projected.

Target a different defender with term remaining?

Let’s talk about Chychrun first.  The asking price is extremely high and Arizona has no reason to trade him for anything less than a king’s ransom at this point.  The price to be paid is going to hurt so no, a package headlined by a 2018 second-round pick in winger Jonatan Berggren isn’t going to work.  I don’t think they’d need to move Moritz Seider or Lucas Raymond but I imagine the Coyotes would be insisting on Simon Edvinsson as part of the deal and then adding pieces (including Berggren potentially) from there.

I don’t think this is the right time for them to try to fill a top-two spot on the back end.  Detroit isn’t about to jump from missing the playoffs for the sixth year in a row to a contender overnight.  GM Steve Yzerman is all about building slowly so it stands to reason that the shift towards being a playoff-bound team is going to be gradual, not dramatic.  It wouldn’t be shocking to see them give Edvinsson some NHL time next season (he’s signed with Frolunda but as he was a first-round pick, Detroit can supersede that contract).

Out of the pending free agents, Hampus Lindholm is one that would really fit well for the Red Wings if they wanted to make a big splash and while he’s not a big point-getter, he’s a legitimate top-pairing player.  That’s why Anaheim wants to re-sign him and why the trade market for rental defenders is basically at a standstill at this point.  I wouldn’t be shocked if Marc Staal returns either while another depth piece can be added as well through free agency.

Could Yzerman trade his way towards filling some of those holes?  Sure.  But why move those assets out in what will probably be a transitional year as they look to get back into the playoff picture?  Add some pieces in free agency, get a little better, assess where things stand, and then use some picks and prospects as trade currency to add when they’re more ready to go for it.  As a patient GM with both Tampa Bay and now Detroit, that’s the route I expect him to take.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag primarily focus on the upcoming trade deadline with trade scenarios and team needs being discussed.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s edition.

SpeakOfTheDevil: What do the Devils do on or before the deadline? Who do you see us bringing in/shipping out?

I don’t expect a whole lot from New Jersey.  We know they’re looking for a veteran goalie just to allow Nico Daws to go back to Utica and I expect they’ll find a way to accomplish that.  They could look to do like Montreal did with Andrew Hammond and bring in a third-string option (if Jake Allen returns in the next couple of weeks, I could see a scenario where Hammond moves again).  If Marc-Andre Fleury stays in Chicago, someone like Collin Delia makes sense as a target.  I could even see someone like Jaroslav Halak if they want someone a little more proven.  If he decides he’s open to a move and just wants to get some playing time in the hopes of landing a contract for next season, New Jersey makes sense.  They won’t make the playoffs but playing time wouldn’t be hard to come by.

I believe they’ll work to find a spot for P.K. Subban as a rental although it’s a move that likely requires double retention so that the acquiring team is only on the hook for $2.25MM.  That might net the Devils a mid-round pick.  He’s the only pending UFA who realistically has a chance to be moved.

One other player that wouldn’t surprise me if he was moved was Pavel Zacha.  He’s a pending RFA but has just one year of team control left with a qualifying offer of $3MM.  Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier are entrenched as their top two centers of the present and future.  Is there a team that still thinks he could be a second liner or a high-end third liner?  If so, maybe he gets dealt.  Since he’s younger, it’s not just playoff-bound teams that could be interested which expands the options.  As for a return, I could see a couple of different scenarios – a third liner under team control for longer than Zacha or a similar-aged defenseman.  This one doesn’t need to be a swap that brings in futures.  Beyond these, I think it’ll be a pretty quiet deadline for the Devils.

pawtucket: With Edmonton once again struggling…even if they make the playoffs, they are likely facing the Avalanche who are incredible at home and far deeper than them…will McDavid be happy being bounced in the first round? (That is if they MAKE the playoffs!).

Could he demand a trade this offseason?

Never say never, I suppose, but I don’t sense that McDavid is the type of player who is going to make that request.  I share your skepticism in terms of them being able to go far in the playoffs and Colorado certainly isn’t an ideal matchup for them.  But from a long-term perspective, I don’t think they’re that far away from really contending either.  They need a legitimate starting goalie and if they can get one, they can do some damage.  McDavid knows that.

What could happen that may be more realistic is that McDavid goes to GM Ken Holland and states his preference to see a core shakeup that sees a higher-priced player moved out in order to acquire that goaltender.  That type of discussion would happen entirely behind the scenes and might not even leak out publicly.  That’s more in line with the more reserved type of player that McDavid is over flat out requesting a trade if things don’t go well this year.

rdiddy75: What would a trade with Giroux going to the Avalanche look like? Any chance the Flyers can get Barron and Behrens in that deal? That would help their blue line for years.

@IWTFWC: Chances that Avalanche acquire Claude Giroux and if so, what will it cost? (1st rd pick, Tyson Jost and Justin Barron?) Also, chances Avalanche acquire Cal Clutterbuck? Or someone else to help the PK/GET PHYSICAL?

Giroux to Colorado has been out there as a speculative destination for a while and at this point, it certainly sounds like they’re a contender (if not the contender) for his services.  I’ve mentioned in the last mailbag that my expected price point for him was a first-round pick, a prospect, and salary filler with the Flyers retaining half of Giroux’s $8.275MM AAV.

I think we have the foundation of what a deal would look like from these questions – the first-rounder (which will need to be 2023 as 2022’s is already gone) and defensive prospect Justin Barron.  (I don’t think Sean Behrens will be in there unless the formula changes to two prospects plus a roster player.)  I like the idea of Jost in principle as a younger player that could benefit from a change of scenery.  Part of me wonders if they’d prefer to move J.T. Compher instead who’s a little better but costs $1.5MM more against the cap this season and next.  That would give them some extra wiggle room to add a secondary piece now and more space for next year.

Colorado has scouted the Islanders lately and they could benefit from a physical winger for the playoffs.  I’m just not certain that Clutterbuck is the right fit for them.  They play an up-tempo style and Clutterbuck is not an up-tempo player.  I know things slow down in the playoffs and maybe he could fit on the fourth line but he’s expensive for that role ($3.5MM) and if they were to add Giroux, I don’t know if they’d have enough money left to add someone at that price point, even if New York retained.  I’m not going to put odds on it but I wouldn’t be surprised if they wind up with someone that plays a similar role and is cheaper over getting Clutterbuck himself.

jdgoat: Could Cam Atkinson be on the move this deadline?

I wouldn’t count on that happening.  While it periodically happens, players with multiple years left on their contracts at big money (Atkinson has three more years at $5.875MM) don’t tend to move at the deadline.  There’s an expectation that the Flyers aren’t interested in rebuilding and will instead do another shakeup of their core.  That happened last summer and that’s when I think they’ll make those types of moves.  That’s when more teams will be willing to shake things up compared to now when buyers are simply looking to add to their rosters, not mess around with their core.

Atkinson has actually had a nice season for the Flyers with 39 points in 54 games heading into today’s game against Chicago which is good for second on the team in scoring (just one point behind Giroux).  I don’t get the sense that he’s going to be the player that moves as a result.  If they believe they’re closer to the playoffs than their record indicates, Atkinson is the type of player to keep, not move out.

Johnny Z: Where might Namestnikov be traded to and for what?

Let’s answer the second half first.  There are two options for a return that are pretty similar – a mid-round pick or a mid-round pick plus salary ballast.  Where the pick falls depends on retention (if any) and how much the player coming back in the second scenario makes.  (There’s going to be a math component involved in pretty much every trade being made, it’s just the reality of the cap situation for many contenders around the league.)

As for where he goes, there are two types of teams where I think he fits.  One is capped-out teams getting 50% retention making him an affordable upgrade on a fourth liner and the other is a team that may want to add to their roster but doesn’t want to move much of their future.  In the first group, Dallas and Washington come to mind as options.  In the second, Nashville, Los Angeles, and maybe Anaheim if they can hang around the race a little longer.

skidrowe: Rickard Rakell to the Bruins…what would it take?

First, extension talks would need to go nowhere.  Second, Anaheim would need to fall out of the playoff race enough to justify selling.  I can see a scenario where an unsigned Rakell stays, to be honest, if they’re still in the playoff picture even with GM Pat Verbeek’s recent comments.  I doubt they’d hold onto blueliners Hampus Lindholm and Josh Manson without extensions but there’s less risk of doing that with Rakell since quality wingers are easier to replace on the open market than quality defensemen.

But that’s probably not what you’re wanting to hear, you’re wanting a rough trade proposal.  Rakell is tricky in the sense that he’s probably not worth a first-round pick or an ‘A’ prospect but a second-rounder or a ‘B’ prospect alone isn’t going to cut it either.  The prospect that comes to mind is defenseman Urho Vaakanainen.  Anaheim’s back end has been weakened over the years and while the 23-year-old may not be a top-four player, he could be a quality piece on the third pairing for a while.  The Ducks haven’t had a lot of success filling those spots lately which would be appealing.

I could see Verbeek asking for a second-rounder on top of that which may be a bit high for his Boston counterpart in Don Sweeney.  However, if Anaheim agrees to take Chris Wagner’s contract ($1.35MM in the minors), maybe that helps.  That would give Boston $225K of cap relief for next season (the rest of the cap hit comes off when he’s in the minors) and clear up a contract slot.  That said, the Ducks are a budget team and might want to part with the final year of Kodie Curran’s contract ($1MM one-way) to offset part of Wagner’s deal in that scenario.  Is that a proposal that could land Rakell?  Perhaps, although I’m still leaning towards them keeping him unless things go off the rails over the next few weeks.

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The NHL trade deadline is now three weeks away, meaning the playoffs are starting to crest over the horizon. Five teams in the league have already reached the 55-game mark, and only the New York Islanders have yet to play 50. Trades have started, sort of, with Tyler Toffoli easily the biggest name dealt so far. But that won’t last long, as things are heating up all around the league as teams realize whether they’re really in the playoff hunt or just pretending at this point.

With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of the PHR Mailbag. If you missed the last one, it was broken into two parts. In the first, our Brian La Rose examined the surging Los Angeles Kings, how the Boston Bruins might approach the trade deadline, and New Jersey’s goaltending situation moving forward. In the second, the New York Rangers’ deadline plans were discussed, along with the Philadelphia Flyers players that are pending free agents.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. The mailbag will run on the weekend and answer as many questions as possible.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include what the Rangers could do at the trade deadline, potential returns for Philadelphia’s pending free agents, Arizona’s situation with Jakob Chychrun, and much, much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

pitmanrich: With the Rangers exceeding expectations for the season and the likes of Kreider, Fox, Shesty, and Panarin at the top of their games, what does Chris Drury do at the trade deadline? Add rentals or add players with term knowing that more key players need re-signing within the next couple of years?

I think their interest will skew more towards rental players or at least those that aren’t signed for much longer beyond this season.  With new deals for Adam Fox and Mika Zibanejad adding nearly $12MM to the books for 2022-23, a lot of the flexibility they have now won’t be there in a few months let alone to the contracts you may be thinking of (Alexis Lafreniere, Kaapo Kakko, K’Andre Miller, etc).  Ryan Strome’s free agency looms large and that’s the one spot I think they could prove me wrong as getting another impact center locked up long-term is worth creating some possible cap challenges down the road.  And no, J.T. Miller for one extra season isn’t what I’d be targeting unless they think there’s an extension that can be done.

They have the cap space (this season) plus the draft pick and prospect capital to make a splash and adding a key player certainly wouldn’t hurt.  That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if the bulk of their moves are a little quieter.  A top-four defender would really go a long way towards slotting some of their defenders in more optimal spots in the lineup and there is definitely room to make at least a couple of additions to the bottom six.  Adding a strong checker/penalty killer would be wise for matchup purposes in the playoffs, a middle-six center is always a good thing for a contender to add, and a secondary scorer on the wing as an injury hedge are all good options.  They could probably afford to do all of these things by waiting until the deadline but I don’t think they’ll add that many players.  There will be some new faces at MSG though but I wouldn’t be shocked if most of them are free agents in July.

DarkSide830: What would realistic returns look like for certain Flyers players? Claude? Braun? Jones? Maybe Provy?

@SSBRealtor: What could the Flyers realistically get for ’G’ if they traded him?  A decent prospect?

GBear: It would seem that the Flyers will move Giroux at the deadline, so what teams do you see being interested in him and what will the asking price look like?

Let’s combine all of the Flyers stuff together.  Before getting to Giroux, I’ll touch on the other players first.

Justin Braun – Third-round pick.  He definitely can help a third pairing and on the penalty kill but he has his limitations and is probably a sixth defender on a lot of contenders.  He’s also a right-shot defender in a marketplace that doesn’t have a lot of those.  I don’t see anyone going higher than a third but if a few teams are willing to pay that third-rounder, perhaps they can squeeze a later pick or depth prospect as well.

Martin Jones – Late-round pick if he moves at all.  How many playoff-bound teams look at him as an improvement on their current backup?  It’s a small list.  If there’s a team with ample cap space that can carry three goalies and effectively have Jones as a highly-paid reserve, there’s probably a move to be made.  But how many third-string goalies generate a strong trade return?

Ivan Provorov – I don’t think he moves.  If the Flyers were selling, I’d say he’s worth a first-round pick, an ‘A’ prospect, and some sort of established defenseman (for cap purposes).  But I don’t think Philadelphia is selling.  Last summer, they made some player-for-player moves to shake up the core.  That’s the type of scenario that seems more plausible to me if they were considering moving him but that’s a trade that’s easier to make in June or July than it is now.  Having said that, I think he’s in a Philadelphia sweater in October.

As for Claude Giroux, he is one of the more intriguing players to think about as far as rentals go.  No one knows if he’s willing to waive his trade protection to go to a contender.  He doesn’t even know at this point.  If he is, he’d jump pretty close to the top of the list among rental players that are realistic candidates to be moved with the caveat that the Flyers retain half of his $8.275MM AAV.  Without that, they can’t maximize their value and if they’re moving him, they’re going to want to maximize their value so for the purposes of this exercise, let’s assume they’re picking up 50%.

I think any return for Giroux is a three-piece one.  A first-round pick should be on the table at a minimum.  There’s going to be some sort of cap/salary ballast even with retention, a $2MM winger or something like that on a short-term if not expiring contract.  Who’s giving up the first-round pick and when will determine how prominent the third piece – a prospect – is.  If it’s a true contender who’s expected to be picking in the late 20s/early 30s, that prospect is going to be close to an A-level one.  But if it’s one who could be an early-exit candidate where the pick is a bit higher, the caliber of prospect will drop accordingly.

In terms of possible suitors, I like the Avalanche here if they can make the money work.  Adding another impact forward would give them a big boost offensively and while that’s not necessarily a huge need for them, they’re all-in and any upgrade is a good one.  If the Rangers opt for a prominent rental, they should be in the mix as well.  Minnesota has a need and while there’s no way he’d fit cap-wise beyond this season, they can add him this year.  I’ve seen Boston suggested as a fit and while there is one on paper, I’m not sure this is the right time for them to pay the type of price that should be needed to get him when they’re a team that seems likely to be in a Wild Card spot.

pawtucket: Should Arizona stand pat with Chychrun since he’s playing like a pile of hot garbage right now (considering his success last year) and maybe look to move him when his stock is back where it belongs?

The Coyotes are playing the market perfectly for Chychrun right now.  They’ve set an exorbitant asking price to the point where if a team met it, they’d be overpaying by a considerable margin (such as the Kings proposal from last weekend’s mailbag, it’s absolutely a crazy overpayment by Los Angeles but barring that type of return, they’ll hold onto him).  They’re firmly in the driver’s seat here.

Teams are smart enough to realize that Arizona is a bit of a unique environment to the point where it’s hard to look good, especially when you’re the one going against top competition every night on a team that has no hopes of winning anytime soon.  On a more competitive team, I think pretty much everyone thinks Chychrun will rebound so his current season shouldn’t hurt his value much, if at all.

There are several teams where he’d be a number one defenseman and at $4.6MM for three more years after this one, there is plenty of surplus value in his deal.  It may be easier to move him in the summer when more teams have cap flexibility and a willingness to change core players but even at that point, the price will be significant.  Ask for the moon now and if someone is willing to pay it, ask for a bit more and then make the deal.  If no one’s willing to pay up, they can easily wait things out.

wreckage: Should the Oilers trade one of McDavid or Draisaitl in an attempt to build a more complete team. And what could the return look like?

GM Ken Holland has boxed himself in to an extent with some of the long-term contracts he has handed out as of late.  There isn’t a lot of financial flexibility moving forward which is going to make it extremely difficult (if not impossible) to address improved depth for next season and beyond and their goaltending for the foreseeable future.

Trading one of Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl shouldn’t be Plan A so I’m not going to sit here and say they should do that but I wouldn’t be shocked if it came to that in a couple of years.  If they can’t make a deep playoff run this season or next, it’s going to be time for the Oilers to look in the mirror and ask themselves if a team built this way can ever get to that level (and by then, it may not be Holland trying to answer that question).

At that point, Draisaitl will be two years away from testing the market and McDavid three.  If they can’t clear out some of their long-term contracts, it’s going to be hard to keep them both.  So when is the optimal time to try to move one of them?  It’s probably in this stretch and I’d suggest Draisaitl would be the one to go.  Two full seasons of an elite center would yield a big return and allow them to either kickstart a rebuild or try to fill some of those big holes.

That makes a trade hard to forecast.  If they’re rebuilding, they’d be looking for multiple first-round picks, top-end prospects, and young, controllable NHL talent.  If they’re retooling, they’ll be looking to fill some holes and I can’t project what those would be in 2024 as I expect some of their current ones will be addressed by then (or at least they’ll try to do so).  I’d think they’d want an established cost-controlled top-six forward and top-four defenseman, plus some other younger assets to either serve as low-cost regulars for a bit or assets to flip for other win-now pieces.  It’s a fun ‘what if’ scenario but it’s a bit early to try to make some projections on what they’d get back.

Coach Tucci: Do you see the Islanders making any moves to strengthen the team or will they be sellers?

I feel the Islanders are better than where they are in the standings.  They had a lot go against them in the early going this season.  But they’re 17 points out of a Wild Card spot.  I know they have games in hand on everybody but that still seems like far too much of a gap to try to make up.

That said, I don’t think they’re going to sell all that much, in large part because they don’t have a great group of pending unrestricted free agents.  Cal Clutterbuck has a bad contract and probably isn’t worth much, Zach Parise can’t score, and Zdeno Chara and Andy Greene are role players at most for contenders.  There could be a late-round pick or two for some of them but that’s about it.

Because they had so many negatives early on (the long road trip to start, plenty of injuries, and an untimely COVID outbreak), I can’t see Lou Lamoriello really wanting to subtract too much from his core.  They’ll actually have a bit of cap flexibility next summer to try to add at that point so I suspect they’ll want to keep their cap space for that time.

If I had to pick one veteran signed for next season that could go, it’s goalie Semyon Varlamov.  Having that platoon with Ilya Sorokin is nice but that could be money that’s reallocated towards another impact piece for 2022-23.  There are playoff-bound teams that could use Varlamov but it might be easier to do that deal in June or July than it is now.  Long story short, I expect a pretty quiet deadline from the Islanders.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the back end for the Kings, New Jersey’s goaltending situation, Boston’s trade deadline approach, the idea of the Red Wings being buyers, Toronto’s new lines, trade odds for Columbus, and Seattle’s recent victories.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

Weasel 2: Realistic opportunity for the Kings to add an impact defenseman? What would a Kings package for Chychrun look like?

Honestly, I don’t think it’s the right time for the Kings to push in some of their chips to try to make a big splash, especially on the back end where the options are rentals or paying through the teeth for Jakob Chychrun.  If Alexander Edler returns during the regular season, they need to have the cap space to be able to activate him which effectively cuts what they can currently spend in half.    I’d shop more on the depth side of things where the cost is a lot lower (I’ve mentioned Detroit’s Troy Stecher in the past as someone I think would be a worthwhile and affordable addition) as I don’t think they’re a big add away from really contending.

Among the impact rental defensemen out there, I’d look at Montreal’s Ben Chiarot as a realistic option.  I don’t see Anaheim dealing their two key rental blueliners in the division if they sell and I don’t think Chiarot will get the first-round pick that some have suggested is the current asking price; there are only so many first-rounders that are going to move and there will be better players moved than Chiarot.  A second-round pick and a good prospect (of which the Kings have several) could be enough without taking away any top assets.  Newly-hired advisor Marc Bergevin is quite familiar with what Montreal has and that type of familiarity can help on the trade front.

There are varying reports as to how many pieces are needed for Chychrun.  It ranges between three first-round elements and an Eichel-like return.  The Kings don’t quite have the similar pieces from the Eichel return so I think something along the lines of Quinton Byfield, Alex Turcotte, and a first-round pick is probably in the range of what Arizona is looking for with perhaps a secondary piece (prospect or second-rounder tacked on to get closer to the four-piece Eichel return).  It’s a huge ask but Arizona doesn’t have to move Chychrun unless they’re blown away and I don’t think the Kings should be the team to make that type of move.

Speak Of The Devil: What can the Devils realistically do to make their goaltending situation better? Blackwood is clearly not the answer here and Bernier is done for the year and there are rumors he may be done for his career. So, who can we go after to end this hamster wheel of mediocrity?

Jack Campbell is setting himself up for a nice payday as the best starter available in free agency and New Jersey has plenty of cap space at their disposal still.  He’s about the only long-term option available (I know Darcy Kuemper is another option but with his injury history, there’s some risk) so if they’re convinced his stint with Toronto isn’t a mirage but rather a true sign of where he is, back up the money truck and make sure not to get outbid for his services.  With his overall inexperience though, it’s a bit of a risk.

The first name that came to mind when I saw this question was Sergei Bobrovsky.  Florida is going to want to move him at some point even with the season he’s having; Spencer Knight is their goalie of the future and they’re going to want to reallocate Bobrovsky’s $10MM price tag with Aleksander Barkov’s new deal starting next season and Jonathan Huberdeau up next summer.  There’s a chance for the Devils to take advantage of that if they think Bobrovsky’s back on track and could get him for a below-market trade return.  But it’s a gamble again.

But here’s the thing.  Every goalie I can throw out there is a question mark.  Alexandar Georgiev is probably going to move and the rivalry notwithstanding, is he really a starter?  He could be but it’s a risk.  If St. Louis wants to go all in on Ville Husso and move Jordan Binnington, is he much of an upgrade on Blackwood?  Semyon Varlamov would be a short-term solution so the hamster wheel wouldn’t stop spinning for long.  Philipp Grubauer has had a brutal season in Seattle but was good in Colorado so maybe he’s a fit but five years is a lot for a gamble.  You could sell me on adding Linus Ullmark to that list to let Boston run with Jeremy Swayman but there are question marks with him as well.

In pretty much every scenario, it’s going to be a roll of the dice.  That’s the challenge with the way the league is going with goaltending – there just aren’t 32 legitimate starting goalies out there let alone teams having a surplus at that spot that doesn’t come with a poison pill of sorts.  There are upgrades available but few guarantees and with Bernier’s future in question, it wouldn’t be shocking to see the Devils try to add a goalie next offseason.  These will be some of the names they likely look to.

case7187: Do you think the B’s could package those three horrible first-round picks DeBrusk, Senyshyn, and Zboril for a guy like J.T. Miller or someone similar to him or would they have to add picks or Vaakanainen to any deals?

SkidRowe: Realistically, what can the Bruins do? They have a lot of talent but they also have glaring needs at C, LD, and RW. Besides draft picks, they don’t have many cheap, young assets to trade (unless they’re willing to move Swayman). Studnicka and Vaakanainen are okay prospects but not exciting. DeBrusk is overpaid and underperforming. Frederic is a former 1st rounder but he’s bottom 6 only. It will be tough for the Bruins to make a competitive offer for any of the big names that may be out there (Chychrun, Hertl, J.T. Miller) given their lack of assets. If they were lucky enough to acquire one of the bigger fish, they would have nothing left to fill their other needs.

@BobbyRotondo: What are the Bruins going to do?

Let’s put all of the Boston questions together.

On the first one, I’ll pose a question back – if the picks are as horrible as they’ve been, why is Vancouver dealing an impact player on a team-friendly contract for them?  Draft pedigree is meaningless at this stage of their careers.  Jake DeBrusk’s trade value is next to zero with his salary and limited production.  He’s not getting a qualifying offer and he’s not producing enough to get teams interested.  They can make a move involving him for a similarly-paid underachiever but that’s about it.  Zach Senyshyn cleared waivers at the start of the season and has been good but not great in the minors.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he moves but it’d be for a depth piece in lieu of trading a late-round pick back; that’s where his value is.  I think Jakub Zboril could become a third-pairing player but he’s out for the year with a torn ACL so his value right now is minimal at best.

So, what can the Bruins do?  They have some cap space to work with which puts them in pretty good shape to try to make a splash.  But they also don’t have the long-term cap room to work with to add another high-priced player to this core assuming they’re able to re-sign Patrice Bergeron this summer and David Pastrnak the following offseason.  Making the playoffs shouldn’t be an issue but they look like a Wild Card team more than a contender.  Is moving one of those few quality young trade assets as was correctly noted for an impact rental player the right move at this time?  I don’t think so.  You do that when you’re trying to contend, not become less of an underdog in the first round; there is no one rental player that puts them over the top in terms of contention.

Remember the Drew Stafford trade from a few years ago?  Boston was able to get him for cheap in large part because of his contract.  That’s the type of move I think they’ll look at.  Add a quality veteran or two that will improve the depth and provide a bit of upside relative to the players they’ll be replacing but with their cap hits being higher than they should be, they won’t have to move much to get them.  Those are incremental improvements to the roster without mortgaging the future.  For a team in their situation, they shouldn’t be doing much more than that.  That’s not exciting but it’s prudent and with their prospect pool not being the deepest right now, I think it’s the right course of action.

HockeyBoz: Is there a chance that the Red Wings are interested in Klingberg? Staal, Leddy, DeKeyser all could be gone next year. Hronek slipping on the depth chart. Might be a good pick-up. They have draft picks stockpiled. Thoughts??

John Klingberg is going to yield a nice return in a trade for Dallas even as a pending free agent.  I want to particularly emphasize that last bit.  Klingberg will be an unrestricted free agent this summer.  Detroit enters play today nine points out of a playoff spot with Boston (the team holding the final spot) having three games in hand.  It would make no sense for the Red Wings to trade for Klingberg as a rental; they’d still almost certainly miss the playoffs and be out some draft picks or prospects for good measure.

Now, if Klingberg was to sign a contract extension as part of a trade, that’s another story.  Is it worth parting with a good pick or prospect to secure Klingberg for seven or eight more seasons?  Sure.  And in that situation, it would make sense for GM Steve Yzerman to consider.  If Klingberg makes it to free agency in July, then they should absolutely be involved; at some point, Detroit will need to start building back their veteran talent base which would go a long way towards helping them take a big step or two forward.

If Klingberg is willing to sign with Detroit right now, then they should be interested in him over the coming weeks.  Otherwise, they have no business being involved in a trade for him and would be best served to wait until the summer to go after him.

Detroit_SP: Does the Red Wings’ best QUALITY option at 2C for 2022-23+ already play on the team? If not, how does the team add a non-rental piece that can contribute quickly enough not to waste Bertuzzi, Larkin, Fabbri, and Vrana’s time with the organization?

I don’t think so.  I like Joseph Veleno but he’s more of a checker than a top-six guy.  Michael Rasmussen shows flashes of offensive skill but I feel he’s also more of a third liner in an ideal situation.  Pius Suter isn’t going to be a second liner long-term either.

So how do they get one?  They can offer a huge contract to Nazem Kadri in free agency or pay a hefty price to get one in a trade.  It cost Montreal a first-rounder plus a second-rounder to get Christian Dvorak, a lower-end 2C.  If you want a quality piece, it’s going to cost a high-end prospect at a minimum; teams moving one with some team control would be asking about guys like Simon Edvinsson.  Controllable impact centers are worth that much.

You make a good point about not wasting the remaining years for their current veteran core and I tend to lean the same way.  Cup contention comes from a combination of good veterans, young impact players that aren’t on high-priced contracts, and impact pieces on entry-level pacts.  That’s the ideal way to maximize talent in the salary cap era.  That particular structure only has a few years left as at that point, their current veterans will either cost more or will have moved on.  This isn’t the season to do it – they’re probably not making the playoffs – but that switch should be flipped this summer.

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