PHR Mailbag

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Detroit’s back end, what Tomas Hertl’s next contract could look like, Toronto’s roster composition, under the radar minor leaguers who could make an NHL impact over the next few years, and a note on teams who may have needed financial help last season.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

Johnny Z: Filip Hronek was healthy scratched for two games. He has been the Wings’ leader in TOI for two years and logged big minutes for the first four games. Is Stevie about to trade him? It seems plausible as his value seems very good and has three years left on his deal.

Benching a player at this time of the season is rarely for a trade.  A few days before the trade deadline, sure, it’s protecting the asset but in the first few weeks, it’s to send a message.  Obviously, Jeff Blashill wasn’t overly impressed with Hronek’s play and decided to get that point across early on.  It seems to have worked as Hronek has been better since coming back.

You’re absolutely correct in that he would have a lot of trade value.  Few others on their team have the type of value that Hronek does.  But at the same time, he’s someone that should be viewed as part of their future core.  On the back end, Moritz Seider looks promising, but he’s about the only one other than Hronek on the current roster that plausibly has a shot at being an impact piece when they come out of their rebuild.  (Gustav Lindstrom could factor in as well but as more of a depth player than an impact one.)  With that in mind, they should be looking to hold onto Hronek.

YzerPlan19: With the hole on the right side in LA and the ton of young assets they have could the Kings be a potential trade partner?

The fit that I see isn’t one that would yield one of those young assets.  Hronek and Seider aren’t moving.  Lindstrom is too young to be moved just yet.  That takes three of the four righties on the NHL roster off the table.

Then there’s Troy Stecher, a player who has felt like a placeholder from the moment he signed with the Red Wings.  He’s someone that can play on the second pairing if needed or be a minute-eater on the third pairing.  That’s more of what the Kings are looking for to replace Sean Walker (since they can’t do a lot to replace Drew Doughty as he’s expected back six weeks or so from now).  He’s a rental and at $1.7MM, he’s cheap enough that it would leave them enough wiggle room to afford to recall someone from the minors into the rest of Walker’s LTIR space.  The on-ice fit is there and the cap fit is there.

But here’s the thing.  The return isn’t going to be overly significant.  I don’t think he’d land a second-rounder at the deadline so that sort of sets the baseline of a third-rounder or equivalent prospect here with maybe a late pick tacked on.  That’s not the type of young asset you may have been hoping for but if they want to give Lindstrom a longer look, it’s a move that is probably worth making from Detroit’s perspective.

mz90gu: What kind of contract can Hertl expect?

This is the type of question that should probably get its own article at some point closer to free agency.  Hertl has a lot going for him – he’ll only be 28 (so a max-term deal is realistic), he plays a premium position that is in high demand and short supply, and he’s played around a 70-point pace for the last few years.  That’s a great combination to have heading into a walk year.

At first glance, I think Sean Couturier’s extension with Philadelphia is the ballpark of where Hertl’s deal will fall.  They’re a year apart age-wise and have produced at similar extrapolated numbers over the past few seasons.  Couturier has a Selke Trophy which Hertl doesn’t (and won’t get) so it’s not a perfect comparison but he’s going to get a premium if he makes it to the open market.

Couturier signed for eight years and $62MM, a $7.75MM AAV.  I think Hertl’s range sandwiches that amount, falling between $7.5MM and $8MM.  If he re-signs with the Sharks, the ability to add an eighth year to the contract could push the cap hit towards the lower part of that range.  That said, making the cap situation work with a raise like that will be easier said than done for GM Doug Wilson.

KAR 120C: Odds that Dubas either trades one of his four or loses his job. As a result of putting 50% of the cap into four players and it not working out well (imho).

@Darrell_Samuels: ’Simple’ question – how do you fix the Toronto Maple Leafs?

I’m going to combine these as the answers sort of go together.

Dubas will eventually lose his job – all general managers do; it’s part of the business.  So I’m going to put odds on one of those things happening this season.  I’ll set it at around 10%.  I don’t think Toronto will move one of their ‘core four’ up front during the regular season and it’s difficult to move big contracts for full value in-season.  And unless things fall completely off the rails over the next couple of months, there probably isn’t going to be an in-season GM change either.

A lot depends on whether they can get out of the first round.  That’s the barometer for success this year; numbers during the regular season aren’t going to matter if they’re quickly bounced again.  Before the season, I predicted they’d win a round so I’ll stick by that and if that happens, Dubas will likely stick around.

But since these questions came out, Morgan Rielly signed his new deal, one that puts another big contract on the books.  I’m not sure they should try the same approach of rounding out the roster with a bunch of low-cost deals and hoping that the end result is different this time but it’s not as if they have a lot of options as their top two centers aren’t being moved.

It sounds a little counter-intuitive to say that moving a top forward is how to fix things but with how their cap is structured, it’s the only way to really change things; swapping sub-$1MM players isn’t going to move the needle much.  If Mitch Marner is moved for a top-six winger making half as much as he is plus some futures, there’s the cap space to keep Jack Campbell and maybe have a bit left over to put towards upgrading one of their cheaper forwards.  If they want to risk going with Petr Mrazek as the full-fledged starter and go cheap on the backup goalie, then the Marner move would give them a chance to add another middle-six piece to deepen the roster and a bit more quality depth up front.

Long term, their hope is that players like Nicholas Robertson, Rodion Amirov, and maybe someone like Alex Steeves can come in and play a regular role and lengthen the lineup.  At that time, that extra offensive depth could push them over the proverbial hump; at least, that’s the plan.

Is that truly fixing things though?  Not really but they’ve made this commitment and it’s a hard one to get out of.  If Auston Matthews decides to walk in free agency in 2024, that would be the next opportunity to dramatically change the shape and structure of the roster.  Until then, they either stick with their current direction or move a winger to give themselves a bit of wiggle room to fill other areas of the roster.  If I had to guess right now, I’d lean towards sticking with the current plan so I’d put the odds of moving a winger at 45% or close to a coin flip.  The next few months will be interesting on that front.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the slow starts in Seattle and Vegas, Vladimir Tarasenko’s hot start in St. Louis, Chicago’s struggles, Cam Atkinson’s return to form, and Arizona’s goaltending situation.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

trak2k: Is it worrying that the Kraken have the lowest amount of shots per game and also not really anyone on offense who can score?

Also. do teams who do well at the beginning of the season do well at the end of the season?

An uptick in shots now has Seattle out of the basement in that regard but it isn’t really cause for concern that the volume isn’t there.  The bigger issue is the second half of your first question in that they don’t have a lot of firepower.  This isn’t a team built to do a whole lot at the offensive end as GM Ron Francis opted to pass on some more prominent offensive players in expansion and only added some secondary pieces in free agency with an eye on longer-term flexibility.

It’s important to hammer home that they’re an expansion team.  They’re supposed to struggle.  What Vegas did when they entered the league is by far the exception to what first-year teams are supposed to do and it unfairly raised the bar for the Kraken in the process.  They’re supposed to be a middling team and with seven points out of their first eight games, they’re basically doing what most expansion teams do.

It’s not a given that teams that start strong will also finish strong.  The good teams are generally good throughout but there is usually a team or two that gets off to a hot start and fades as the year goes on and vice versa.  If you’re hoping that Seattle goes from a slow start to a good finish though, I don’t think this is the year for that to happen.

DirtbagBlues: Too early to panic in Vegas?

DirtbagBlues: Would Vegas really trade Theodore (as is being rumored since the Whitecloud and Hutton signings)? What else would they need to add to nab Eichel?

Speaking of that other recent expansion team…  I’m not pushing the panic button right now.  I know the statement “no excuses” tends to be applied but Max Pacioretty, Mark Stone, and Alex Tuch are a big part of their offense and they’re all on the shelf plus there have been a litany of minor issues that have kept players out as well.  When a team is icing a lineup with a combined payroll below the cap minimum some nights, they’re bound to struggle.  If they were all healthy and they were still struggling, then I’d be a bit more concerned.

As for Shea Theodore’s inclusion in a Jack Eichel trade, I think they would do that.  First, I think the expectation of what Eichel will get in a return has swung far too much the other way; the Sabres aren’t moving him for pennies on the dollar.  The pressure point is next offseason when his trade protection comes in, not now.  If he sits the season, I don’t think they’re all that concerned; it’s not as if they’re actively trying to make the playoffs anyway.

Back to Theodore, then.  Vegas has to match money for this to work on the cap (the LTIR only helps this season, not in the other four years of Eichel’s deal) so someone with a hefty price tag has to go the other way.  Theodore at $5.2MM is a start on that front.  But he’s young enough to be viewed as a longer-term piece for Buffalo and is signed through 2024-25 which is big for them.  He can be the centerpiece of a return as a result.  From the Golden Knights’ perspective, they have Alex Pietrangelo, Alec Martinez, and Zach Whitecloud signed through at least 2023-24 and Nicolas Hague under control through 2026.  That’s a good foundation on the back end even without Theodore.

As for what else, someone like Jonathan Marchessault, Reilly Smith, or Evgenii Dadonov would make the money work looking ahead to later in the year if Eichel is able to return for the stretch run and playoffs (LTIR shields them until that time).  I’d lean towards Marchessault solely because he has the longest term remaining which makes the money situation easier to navigate.  Buffalo is open to conditions on other pieces so there’s bound to be a conditional first-rounder in there plus probably a lower pick tied to that one.  I could also see someone like Jack Dugan involved, a prospect whose stock has dipped a bit but still carries some potential value to Buffalo.

Johnny Z: Does Tarasenko still get traded? Does he push it or settles in with the Blues?

I’ve never really thought Tarasenko was getting traded in the first place.  Sure, he may want out but with contracts like these, there’s a very fine line to navigate.  At $7.5MM for this season and next, teams aren’t going to want him if he’s not producing and how he finished last year basically cratered any possible value he may have.  On the other hand, he’s an important enough piece for the Blues that they weren’t going to give him away.

Now he’s off to a nice start to his 2021-22 campaign with four goals and four assists in six games.  His value has certainly gone up but where’s the motivation for St. Louis to trade him?  If you have a player producing at a top-line level, you keep him.  Winning and success can get rid of a lot of bad blood.  Will that be the case here?  I don’t know but considering that it’s often easier to try to swap big contracts in the offseason, that might be the time for something to happen on the trade front but not now.  At that point, teams will have a better idea if Tarasenko is truly back to his old form while there will also be the element of being able to discuss and potentially sign an extension which isn’t an option if he’s moved now.

Nha Trang: Has Marc-Andre Fleury just gotten old, or does the Chicago defense really suck THAT badly?

Why can’t it be both?  Fleury is 36 and there is some volatility in starting goalies as they get older.  Fleury didn’t hide the fact he didn’t want to be traded in the first place and while I’m not accusing him of merely going through the motions by any stretch, going from somewhere you loved to somewhere you don’t want to be certainly doesn’t help things.

As for Chicago’s back end, they’ve struggled quite a bit as well.  Frankly, they’ve surprised me with how poorly they’ve played as on paper, that’s at least a decent group.  Seth Jones has struggled mightily, Jake McCabe hasn’t quite settled in yet, and returning veterans Connor Murphy and Calvin de Haan have underwhelmed as well.

It’s also worth mentioning that in Fleury’s case, it’s four games.  That’s a pretty small sample size.  He isn’t going to be that bad all season long; I expect he’ll turn it around.  Generally speaking, I expect Chicago will find their footing eventually; there’s too much talent on that team to be this bad all season long.  When that happens, Fleury will go back to being a decent starter and that’s all they really wanted when they added him from Vegas.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the Rangers and their long-term center situation, some candidates to step up for the Lightning this season, players that have a shot at having their tryouts converted to an NHL contract, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

jchancel: If the NYR are going to sign Zibanejad long term, what salaries do they move if they want to sign a front-line center? Personally, I’d like to see who they could possibly get that would play better with Panarin than Strome has. I know his faceoff % and defensive abilities aren’t the best, but he plays a very adequate game feeding Panarin.

Stop the Eichel nonsense!!! Crazy to overpay for damaged goods. If he’s gettable for two returns and a draft pick maybe. But not all your youth!!

I don’t see a scenario where they can afford to give Mika Zibanejad the long-term contract he’s seeking and still try to bring in a number one center.  With Artemi Panarin not going anywhere and their young core heading for pricier deals in a hurry – headlined by Adam Fox next summer – they’re not going to be able to carry two high-priced pivots on their roster.  If they were absolutely adamant about trying to add another impact center (perhaps a high-end second option), Chris Kreider feels like the one that they’d try to move.  His contract probably won’t age well and with the young wingers they have coming, he could be pushed down the depth chart in a hurry.

I understand the temptation to try to upgrade on Ryan Strome given his track record but at some point, he deserves some credit at least.  Yes, he plays well with Panarin but it shouldn’t necessarily be taken for granted that whichever potential upgrade they try to get will have similar chemistry.  It could be better but it could be worse.  I’m not necessarily advocating that they keep him but at the frequency he’s thrown into trade suggestions, it should at least be said that he has had the best two seasons of his career in the last two years.  That should count for something.

Eichel’s trade value is dipping right now but I don’t see Buffalo accepting that low of a return for him at this point.  With the Sabres not trying to compete, I think they’re perfectly content dragging this out a little while longer.

denny816: If the Rangers do not see a considerable jump in production from Kaapo Kakko (assuming he is given an increased role for the upcoming season), could you see Drury dangling him and one of their plethora of young defense prospects to fill the hole they have at center?

That would certainly make sense in theory but at the same time, if Kakko doesn’t have a big jump in production, how much does his trade value drop?  I wouldn’t want to put him into ‘bust’ territory but there’s no doubt it would make it harder for him to be the centerpiece of such a move.  If they had any inclination of trying to move Kakko for a center, it may make more sense to try to do it now.  There’s some risk in that Kakko breaks out elsewhere but if he landed a promising young, cost-controllable pivot, it could be worth doing sooner than later.

The Captain 11: The NYR are in a no-win situation with the center position right now. Both Zibanejad and Strome are UFA after this season. They have no internal options to replace them and it doesn’t look like there are upgrades available in the 2022 UFA market. Are there any possible RFA’s ripe for an offer sheet possibly?

Do the NYR overpay both Zibanejad and Strome in both money and term or do they trade one or both to not risk losing them for nothing? With Dolan mandating making the playoffs (or something close to that), it seems like the latter is off the table. A true no-win situation for Drury. I don’t see Chytil as a center moving forward even though Drury recently said he does see it. Barron might make a good 3C one day but prob needs more seasoning and some time before being ready. Most people have them both as better suited to wing.

Also, is it me or do the NYR seem to have an organizational aversion to drafting and developing centers? Very few really good centers have been drafted as they tend to get them through trade and free agency.

And, does Gallant finally break up the trio of pairs? Kreider/Zibanejad, Strome/Panarin, Kakko/Chytil. Should they name Kreider captain, would it be a smart move to slide him to the 3rd line and ease that burden on him a bit while simultaneously giving Laffy a good look on the top line?

Let’s stick with the Rangers for one more set of questions.  If you’re looking for a proven option, an offer sheet probably isn’t the best route to try to go.  Even if they find an impact center they like, how much will it cost to get them to sign and get the team to walk away?  Carolina more than doubled Jesperi Kotkaniemi’s value and even then, it was far from a guarantee that Montreal wouldn’t match.  Let’s say there’s a center worth $6MM in the RFA class that is willing to sign an offer sheet, they’re going to have to offer substantially more than that to get the team to walk away.  That’s more cap space and draft picks down the drain and if you’re going upwards of $8MM to $9MM, wouldn’t they be better off just keeping Zibanejad?

I don’t see Zibanejad being moved in-season (I think he re-signs) and if the Rangers are in the mix, I don’t think Strome moves either.  There’s always risk to that approach but it’s hard to see them voluntarily weakening their playoff fortunes to add a pick or a prospect.

I don’t think the Rangers have an aversion to drafting centers.  Chytil and Lias Andersson were both drafted as first-round centers and that was just in 2017.  Kakko and Lafreniere are wingers, sure, but they were the consensus top options where they were picked; reaching for a center wouldn’t have made sense.  In between that, they added a pair of decent winger prospects and a pretty good defenseman in K’Andre Miller.  Sometimes, sticking with BPA over positional need pays off in terms of stockpiling assets.  Now, they’ll have to develop those into trade chips to fill the need unless Chytil is able to establish himself there.

Line combos are meant to be shuffled around so sure, Gallant will probably split them up at points, especially in training camp.  Kreider will be on the third line down the road but if they want to keep his value high (if they have eyes on trading him for cap flexibility purposes), moving him down would make that hard.  That would also take the captaincy off the table.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Zibanejad is named captain if they get an extension worked out before the season starts.

Jack10: Which prospect(s) from the defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning will have the biggest impact, if any after their free agent signings, during the upcoming season in which they have lost their entire 3rd line from their back-to-back championships?

I mentioned him in a recent mailbag but I’ll go again with Alex Barre-Boulet here.  He produced at a high-end rate in junior.  He went to the minors and produced at a high-end rate in both of his full seasons while averaging more than a point per game in limited action last year.  His NHL numbers don’t stand out – three goals in 15 games – but it was his first taste of NHL action.  He’s someone I see having a limited role to start but working his way up into an important secondary scoring role before too long.

He’s slightly more proven but I’ll also add Mathieu Joseph to the mix.  He may not be a true prospect but he’s only a few months older than Barre-Boulet.  He has had a limited role so far in his career but he’s someone who should play higher in the lineup now.  He has produced in the past and if he does this season, he’ll be a very interesting restricted free agent next summer with salary arbitration rights.

The Duke: Let’s once again dust off the Mailbag’s Crystal Ball, which sees all & knows all: 1. Fastest path to – and most scoring success in – a top-six role between Newhook, Krebs, Veleno & Tomasino? 2. Brightest scoring future between Eklund, Raymond & Holtz? And lastly 3. the top three scoring forwards in NJ’s next 3-4 years? As always, much thanks.

1) The fastest path should be Nashville’s Philip Tomasino as there’s a very good chance he’ll be in that role this season.  The Predators didn’t exactly add up front this summer with an eye on giving some youngsters like him and Eeli Tolvanen a chance to step up.  Alex Newhook will get there at some point but it won’t be this season.  Peyton Krebs will need some time in the minors and Joseph Veleno I suspect will be more of a high-end third liner than a top-six guy.  Long term, Newhook might have the best path to success if he eventually ascends to the 2C role in Colorado but for the upcoming season, Tomasino should have the most points.

2) If we go strictly with SHL success, it’d be William Eklund who had a nice showing with Djurgardens last season where he was a teammate of Alexander Holtz.  But I’ll take Lucas Raymond, who is going to be a focal point of Detroit’s rebuild that will eventually come to an end, to slightly outscore the others.  All three should be impact players before too long though.

3) I expect Jack Hughes to continue to develop offensively so he’ll certainly be in that mix.  So, too, should Nico Hischier.  Holtz won’t play enough to have a shot at that and I don’t see many high-scoring forwards coming out of the rest of their group.  I’d like to take Dougie Hamilton as I think he’ll out-produce the rest of their forwards over that stretch but he’s a defenseman.  I’m not sold on Yegor Sharangovich being a key long-term piece for them but he’ll be around long enough to get an honest look so I’ll give him the slight edge for the third forward slot.

ericl: If the Bruins struggle to find a center who plays well with Hall, who are some centers that could be available as the trade deadline approaches that could be possible trade targets?

Max Domi would be one but I touched on that scenario earlier this month already so I won’t get into that one here.  I suspect the target would be a rental with an eye on extending the right fit which is basically what they did with Taylor Hall.  A lot will depend on where teams are at the deadline as to whether they’re selling or not so keep in mind that these names could wind up not being available midseason.

I’d look at someone like Joe Pavelski as a primary target if the Stars aren’t in the playoff race.  Dallas would need to retain and Boston would still need to send a salary offset but if they’re making one last run with this core and their internal options can’t get the job done, I would be surprised if he wasn’t Plan ‘A’.

Ryan Strome’s future with the Rangers is in question and if they’re not in the mix, he’s someone that could move.  He’s another question mark but his price tag would be more affordable.  Paul Stastny would be a good fit if Winnipeg is out of contention and now that his AAV is lower, Ryan Getzlaf is more palatable at the deadline as well.  I doubt all of these players will be available but if they’re thinking about a possible rental player already, these players could very well be on the list.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Toronto’s playoff potential, Philadelphia’s summer shuffle and goaltending situation, predictions for some surprises this season, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

jimmertee: Can the Leafs ever win in the playoffs with Matthews on the team and the core that’s getting paid so much money but don’t produce in the playoffs? How long do the Leafs stick with that core?

I think they can definitely win a round although that’s about as far as I’m willing to go this season; Tampa Bay is in their division after all and would be the likely favorite in what would be a second-round matchup.  They’ve come close enough in recent years and have done some things well; a good bounce here and there and they’d have won a series already.  So no, this core isn’t doomed to lose forever and they can definitely get over the proverbial hump.

There really isn’t an easy jumping-off point with this core, especially among their four high-priced forwards.  High-paid players are hard enough to move and getting top value for them will be even harder.  It’s not that those players aren’t any good but moving and matching money is going to be tough for a while.  The overall core group will weaken as the flattened salary cap ultimately prevents players from re-signing but I believe they’re locked into this team structure for a few more years yet.

wreckage: Do you see anyone declining an invite to play at the Olympics?

I’m assuming you’re asking on the political and public pressure fronts.  Lots can change as we get closer to February so this answer may not hold up in the end but I’m going to say no.  There hasn’t been a chance for an NHL player to participate in eight years so it’s going to be the first opportunity for many and the last chance for many others.  It’s hard to pass up on that.

There’s also the fact that the NHL isn’t overly enthusiastic about long-term participation in this event.  There’s a commitment to try for 2026 but after that, if they can rekindle and make money off the World Cup, they’re going to push for that so Olympic participation is hardly a guarantee.  With the opportunities being so infrequent, I just can’t see anyone declining for that reason.  Players will withdraw/decline due to injury but I think that will be the only reason.

Black Ace57: After a busy offseason, is this going to be the make-or-break year for the Flyers? At this point, if they can’t play up to expectations is there really any option but retooling for a year or two?

It sure feels like there’s a lot riding on this season, doesn’t it?  GM Chuck Fletcher has made several key changes to their roster with the additions of Cam Atkinson, Ryan Ellis, and Rasmus Ristolainen with the sole design of getting back to the playoffs and doing some damage when they get there.  If that doesn’t happen, changes are going to be made.

Claude Giroux is an unrestricted free agent next summer and he’s someone whose odds of returning will likely directly be tied to Philadelphia’s success.  Once James van Riemsdyk moves to being an expiring contract which happens next summer, he’s likelier to be gone as well.  Those two leaving would be another significant retooling.  We’ll see what happens with Ristolainen, another pending UFA, as well.

With the commitments they have on the books already – nearly $66MM in a dozen players per CapFriendly – a big overhaul seems less likely so while there could be a big name or two coming and going again, most of the core would stay intact so I like your classification of a retool instead of a rebuild in that situation.

Emoney123: Do the Flyers have a goalie problem? Hart is coming off a down year so should he be looking over his shoulder at Sandstrom, Ersson, Ustimenko, Ross, Tomek, and Fedotov? Is there a generational talent in there somewhere or just prospects hyped by the organization?

I’ll answer the second one first.  No, there isn’t a generational goalie in the pipeline.  I’m not even sure there’s an NHL starting goalie in there let alone a rare elite talent.  Samuel Ersson has some upside but he needs to do well in North America before calling him good enough to potentially push Carter Hart for playing time.

So, is that a problem?  I’m not ready to call it that yet.  I expect Hart to bounce back playing behind an improved defensive group and even if he isn’t a long-term star netminder, they’ll settle for someone that’s capable of being a decent starter.  He’s 23, signed for three years and under team control for four.  That’s a good foundation and finding a capable second goalie is certainly doable although I don’t think they necessarily landed one in Martin Jones who they’re also hoping will benefit behind a better defense.  If they have to reallocate some cap space to goaltending, they should be able to get a better backup to push Hart and, in the process, give them at a minimum a serviceable tandem.  If you have that, it’s not a problem.

In the meantime, adding a quality goalie prospect should be fairly high on the priority list.

YzerPlan19: Predictions for Bennett and Reinhart in Florida’s top six? Can Reinhart get 30 goals playing on Barkov’s wing? Did they bring him in to add more offense or does he slot in at 3C? Can Bennett exorcise his demons and continue on a point per game clip as 2C with Huberdeau?

I can’t see Florida paying a first-round pick and a pretty good goalie prospect in Devon Levi to have Sam Reinhart play on the third line.  He’s there to be an impact scorer and will be in their top six, potentially on the wing alongside Aleksander Barkov.  I think he’s absolutely capable of scoring 30 this season.  Very quietly, he scored at a 38-goal pace last season on a Buffalo team that was bereft of offense.  Put him in a more offensive-oriented environment while still being with a high-end center and 30 is definitely attainable.

Bennett, to me, is one of the biggest wildcards in the league.  I don’t think he’s going to be able to keep playing at a point-per-game pace as he did after the trade.  10 regular season games is a pretty small sample size as is five playoff contests.  But he absolutely can put up more than he was providing with Calgary.  If he had a 45-50-point season while being a capable center and playing with plenty of grit, I think they’d take that.  If he can hover closer to that point per game mark though, his contract will wind up being one of the better bargains in the league.

pawtucket: What are your top surprises in each division? Could be team, player, standings, whatever.

Atlantic: Will Butcher (Buffalo) gets back to being an impact offensive defenseman.  He was a bit better down the stretch in New Jersey but was still given away (with retention).  He’s not going to a winning environment but he will have a chance to play a bigger role and has the offensive skills to be a real weapon.  With his lowered price tag ($2.822MM after retention), he becomes one of the most sought-after rentals at the trade deadline.

Metropolitan: Columbus doesn’t bottom out and finish last in the division.  They’ve blown up their roster and at some point, one of their two pending UFA goalies is going to have to go as well.  The end result is a mishmash of players that are supposed to have the Blue Jackets contending for the top pick.  They’re not making the playoffs but they’ll be more competitive than many realize at and the end of the day, someone else is last in the Metro.

Central: Vladimir Tarasenko (St. Louis) is still with the Blues after the trade deadline.  There’s a mutual desire for a change of scenery and he has been in all sorts of trade speculation but they don’t want to give him away in case he bounces back.  Tarasenko produces close to a 20-goal level which still isn’t a good return on a $7.5MM AAV but it’s enough that they decide to hold onto him.  Many expect him to move – particularly since they need to re-sign Robert Thomas – but someone else becomes the cap casualty to make that happen.

Pacific: Nolan Patrick is this year’s Chandler Stephenson.  Stephenson’s trade to Vegas gave him a chance to play a bigger role and he certainly made the most of it.  Now, Patrick, freed somewhat from the expectations that come from being a second-overall pick, has a similar opportunity and puts up 35-40 points, giving the Golden Knights the center depth they’ve lacked lately.  He’s not going to be the number one that would make a huge difference but he’ll be a big part of their secondary core, not too shabby for a reclamation project.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include reuniting the Hughes brothers, Henrik Lundqvist, Max Domi, Cole Caufield’s production, the Kings’ offseason, plus playoff and crystal ball predictions.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

SpeakOfTheDevil: Do you see the Hughes brothers all playing together on the same team someday? What would it take for that to happen via trade?

I don’t see it happening and it comes down to money.  Quinn Hughes is going to get very expensive very quickly.  If Jack Hughes pans out as expected, he’ll be expensive a year from now.  By the time Quinn becomes a free agent, Luke will be on his second contract which, you guessed it, could get expensive quickly if he puts up the points many think he will.  Dougie Hamilton might still be on the books at $9MM by then (depending on how long Quinn’s second contract is – is it a bridge or does it walk him to UFA right away?).

That likely takes the easiest scenario off the table.  Could Vancouver one day trade Quinn?  Sure, anything is possible.  But does New Jersey need a third puck-moving defender with Hamilton and Luke and again, can they even afford that on the cap?  Probably not and even if they could afford it, would they be willing to pay an extremely high price tag (multiple top picks and players) to make a strong spot (puck-moving defender) even stronger?  That’s probably not the best use of organizational resources even if it makes for a nice story.

I don’t see New Jersey moving Jack and Luke to Vancouver, not with the cap challenges the Canucks are heading towards.  And all three winding up on an entirely different team is even harder to see happening.

Could it happen later in their careers when they’re not all on big-money contracts?  That’s certainly a little more realistic but even then, the safe bet is to say it doesn’t happen outside of them playing some summer scrimmages in the offseason on the same team.

Eaton Harass: Is Lundqvist the best goalie to never win a Cup?

He’s definitely in that mix.  He’s a sure-fire Hall of Famer but there are others that are in the Hall of Fame that have to be considered.

Tony Esposito played in a much different era so it’s hard to directly compare the numbers but he played on some very good Chicago teams that just couldn’t get over the hump, much like the Rangers.  Roberto Luongo didn’t always have good teams in front of him but was one of the premier goalies of his generation, the same as Lundqvist.  I’d put Lundqvist ahead of Curtis Joseph and Ron Hextall who should also get at least some consideration here as well.

I’d say Esposito and his slightly more decorated track record would get the edge here but it’s not really a competition to be the best of that group. Lundqvist was a high-end goalie that never won a Stanley Cup that will one day be in the Hall of Fame.  I know lots of people like ‘Best of’ lists but I don’t think being ranked first, second, third, or tenth matters all that much.

@MarkPaleo: Is Max Domi a possible solution for the Bruins’ 2nd line center question?

In the short term, no.  He’s going to miss at least the first six weeks or so of the season if not longer after undergoing shoulder surgery in early June.  There’s also the $5.3MM AAV which is one they can’t really afford.  Yes, he’s eligible for LTIR but there would be a cap crunch as soon as he was able to return.

But at the trade deadline?  That could be a really interesting option.  At that point, Domi will have come back and shown if he’s capable of still being a top-six piece (particularly at center, after spending time the last two years on the wing) and the money will be easier to fit in with how much time will have passed and Columbus likely being more willing to retain at that time.  Boston has looked at reclamation rental projects in the past at the deadline in the hopes that a change of scenery gets them going and Domi would certainly fit that particular strategy.  If they haven’t filled that spot by the deadline, he’d make some sense for them.

wu tang killa beez: What do you expect from Cole Caufield in Montreal in a full NHL season? Can he score 30 goals?

In a single season at some point in his career?  30 is more than doable; it’d be a bit surprising if he didn’t get to that milestone a few times at least.  He’s undersized but it’s hard to teach the scoring touch that Caufield has and he certainly didn’t look out of place during Montreal’s playoff run.

Now, if you’re asking about next season, that’s a little less certain.  Don’t get me wrong, he could get 30 in 2021-22 but I don’t know if I’d necessarily predict that.  The Canadiens are a score-by-committee type of team and outside of a hot start last year, they don’t typically score a lot.  They have some decent weapons on the wing with him, Brendan Gallagher, Mike Hoffman, and Tyler Toffoli and that might result in some flatter scoring numbers.  All of those players could (and if healthy, probably should) pass the 20-goal mark but because of that depth, none might reach 30 next season.

Winter in Colorado: Do you think the veteran additions and developing prospects will be enough for the LA Kings to make the playoffs this season? Is 3rd in the relatively weak Pacific Division possible?

bigalval: Can the Kings make the playoffs this year the team looks a lot better and the kids are coming up.

There’s no denying that the Kings are much-improved after the additions of Phillip Danault, Viktor Arvidsson, and Alexander Edler.  The depth is a lot better and some players who were in spots higher than they should have been will be pushed back down which, from a development standpoint, isn’t a bad thing either.  There’s also no denying that the Pacific Division isn’t all that strong and it is definitely possible that these additions plus some internal improvement from their youngsters could be enough to get them over the hump and into that third seed.  I wouldn’t be shocked if it happened.

That said, I’m not going to predict it’ll happen.  Last month, I made my very quick predictions for the playoffs and the Kings weren’t in that group.  I think Edler will help their back end but it’s still not a particularly strong group.  I don’t have a lot of confidence that Calvin Petersen and Jonathan Quick can be a playoff-caliber goaltending tandem, especially with that back end not being an impactful one.  They’ll score more but after being 27th in that department last season, that’s a low bar to clear.  I could see the Kings being fourth or fifth in the division but if five teams from the Central make it (a definite possibility), that would have Los Angeles just on the outside looking in.  Bright days are soon coming but I think that jump ahead is another year away.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Buffalo’s rebuilding process, the pursuit of Jack Eichel from the Rangers and if Detroit should be in the mix, a proposed offer sheet, Nashville’s underwhelming summer, under the radar breakout candidates, moves that general managers may one day wish they had a mulligan on, and where Ryan Dzingel landed in free agency.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

LarryJ4: What Adams has done with the Sabres roster seems to be geared towards clearing out the losing mentality of certain players would you agree? Complete reset so to speak and hear up a rebuild what he feels is the right way. The previous 2 GMs failed to bring in players that their character properly fit the “retool/rebuild” mode of a team. Granted the last one was brought in by Adams, being Taylor Hall, but that seems like a knee jerk reaction by Adams facing pressure from Ownership that appears clueless.

Second question is do you think Adams has the invisible “handcuffs” off of him this go around?

I don’t know if I’d go as far as saying the rebuild is built on trying to clear out anyone with a losing mentality.  Everyone on the Sabres for an extended period has been through plenty of losing so it could be suggested they all have had that particular mentality ingrained in them over the years.

This feels like a situation where they finally realized that they’re not just a player or two away from becoming contenders and trying to add that piece each year becomes futile after a while.  Their captain isn’t coming back anytime soon, if at all, further pushing them in that direction.  In that case, selling off the players who were nearing unrestricted free agency was the logical next step.  Rasmus Ristolainen and Sam Reinhart probably weren’t signing new long-term deals with Buffalo so they pretty much had to go.

As for the handcuffs, that’s always difficult to speculate on as owners have differing levels of involvement throughout the league but this is the type of rebuild that requires ownership signing off on.  The fact that GM Keyvn Adams has made the moves he has made suggests he has received the commitment and green light to see this process through.

CoachWall: Now that we know Eichel is going to miss the first month or so, have the Rangers pivoted to re-upping Z-dad?

In the context of this question, I’m going to say no.  Not having Eichel available for the start of next season shouldn’t drastically affect how much they want him.  He has five years left on his deal so missing 15-20 games at the start of that span shouldn’t discourage them from going after him when the potential for four-plus years of a number one center is still there.

At this point, GM Chris Drury should be working both fronts.  He can keep inquiring on Eichel to see if the price will eventually change while at the same time doing his due diligence in terms of what it will cost to keep Zibanejad around; Eichel not being ready to start the year shouldn’t push Drury down a path he should already be on.  Both aren’t going to be doable but it doesn’t mean discussions can’t be done for both options at the same time so that the Rangers can make one of the two moves when the time is right.

gowings2008: The Red Wings lack a true number one center, is it possible they are secretly in on Eichel? He fits their core group in terms of age and the Wings have the cap space to fit him in. I know the Red Wings have rarely leaked any rumors under Yzerman, but this is an opportunity that rarely presents itself and they have the pieces, I would think, to make it work.

You make a very reasonable case for Detroit to go down this path and I agree that they probably have the assets to make a trade work.  But the timing doesn’t feel right to me.

GM Steve Yzerman’s offseason was all about adding bridge pieces.  Nick Leddy is someone that could be flipped later in the year, Alex Nedeljkovic only received a two-year deal that walks him to UFA eligibility (and there are questions about whether or not he can be an NHL starter) while up front, Pius Suter was the only addition of note, also receiving a two-year deal that takes him back to UFA status.  To drastically shift towards trying to win now runs counterintuitive to what they’ve done the last few months.

I’ll put it this way.  If Detroit was in on Eichel, making a move before the draft would have been the right time to do it.  Then they’d have been more aggressive in terms of trying to add more proven win-now talent via trade and free agency and really emerge from the rebuild.  But if Yzerman still thinks they’re a couple of years away from doing that (and his activity the last two months suggests that’s the case), then the high cost to acquire Eichel would be a little harder to justify since he alone wouldn’t make them a playoff team and there aren’t any notable free agents left that they could try to add after landing Eichel.

I actually quite like the idea of Eichel in Detroit but I think the right time for that was two months ago, not now.

Robert Evans Jr.: Why doesn’t Buffalo just offer sheet Sorokin for $4.11 million a year for five or six years to be the goalie of the future??

I’m glad you mentioned five or six years in the question as it gives me a chance to highlight a rule that often gets missed.  For offer sheet purposes, the maximum divisor is five, even if the term of the contract is longer.  Accordingly, while a five-year offer sheet at $4.11MM per year would yield a second-rounder, the six-year term would actually push him up a tier to the first-rounder plus a third-rounder.  The total compensation for that offer would be $24.66MM with the maximum divisor at five.  That means for offer sheet compensation purposes, his AAV would be $4.93MM (even though the AAV of the contract is still $4.11MM).

With that said, there are a couple of reasons that Ilya Sorokin won’t sign that contract.  First, he would actually have to want to sign that deal to go to Buffalo and with the direction the Sabres are going, they’re not exactly going to be a desirable destination for a little bit.  The second is that he probably has already agreed to terms with the Islanders as GM Lou Lamoriello has a whole bunch of deals done that haven’t been announced yet.  The fact that Sorokin didn’t file for arbitration feels like a strong sign that his contract is among those in place that we’ll officially find out about at some point in the next six weeks.

Gbear: Rhetorical question, but how does subtracting Viktor Arvidsson and Calle Jarnkrok and adding Philip Tomasino and Cody Glass to an already paltry offense in Nashville improve their goal-scoring output?

Rhetorical or not, I’ll answer anyway.  It really doesn’t help them although with the way David Poile has built his team this summer, it sure looks like they’re a team that’s looking at some short-term pain (and salary savings) for long-term gain.

If they kept their core intact and still brought Glass in, we’d be talking about him playing in the minors and waiting for a recall.  By moving Arvidsson to the Kings and losing Jarnkrok to Seattle, now there’s a defined spot on the third line for Glass for him to get a more consistent chance that he had with Vegas last season.  Considering Nashville’s long-standing need for help down the middle, it only made sense to add someone like Glass if they had a chance to play him.

Tomasino looks like he’s ready to contribute based on his play as an underager in the AHL last year.  I’m not as bullish on them seemingly keeping a roster spot for him as a 20-year-old but it certainly feels like they want to get his NHL experience started quickly in the hopes of expediting his development.

Are the Predators better now than they were last season?  Certainly not.  So if they’re going to be rebuilding, they might as well get the youngsters some playing time in a role where they’ll have a chance to succeed right away.  If the development of Glass and Tomasino (among other youngsters) next season is bolstered, the long-term improvement should outweigh the short-term drop in production that is certainly coming.

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With August coming to a close and the NHL offseason moving like a slug on a hot sidewalk, fans (and writers) are looking forward to next month and the start of training camp. The preseason kicks off in a month and like usual there are still some big restricted free agents without contracts. As camp approaches, the heat will be put on both sides to get deals done, which could lead to some very interesting situations.

With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of the PHR Mailbag. If you missed the last one, it was broken into two pieces. In the first half, Brian examined the situations regarding Vladimir Tarasenko and Jack Eichel, while also giving his thoughts on the New York Islanders’ tight-lipped strategy. In the second, he discussed the New Jersey Devils’ new acquisitions, the Seattle Kraken roster, and David Krejci’s departure from the Boston Bruins.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. The mailbag will run on the weekend and answer as many questions as possible.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag including New Jersey’s summer movement, Seattle’s possible opening night lineup, Boston’s center situation, picking playoff teams, Evgeny Kuznetsov’s future with Washington, player predictions, and inserting the most surprising pick from the 2020 draft into the 2021 draft.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back for it in last weekend’s mailbag.

SpeakOfTheDevil: Did the Devils do enough this offseason to actually end this rebuild? Do you see them doing anything else this offseason?

Just so it’s mentioned, not long after this question was asked, New Jersey went out and added Tomas Tatar which is another notable move.  More on him shortly.

What’s the definition of ending the rebuild?  If it’s making the playoffs, the answer is no.  For me, this is the summer that starts the end of the rebuild.  Dougie Hamilton instantly gives them the high-impact defenseman they’ve lacked for a long time.  That’s a long-term building block in place that isn’t under the age of 23.  Ryan Graves is an effective blueliner that’s young enough to be part of the long-term core if things go well.  Tatar is a great fit for them; he’ll provide some veteran insulation for one of Jack Hughes or Nico Hischier and should raise the floor of that line.  His defensive skills are also understated given how effective of a two-way line he was on with Montreal.  He isn’t a long-term piece but he should elevate one of those two pivots which helps to end the rebuild.  Jonathan Bernier is a good fit to be the veteran mentor for Mackenzie Blackwood in the role that Corey Crawford was supposed to fill last year.  They won’t have elite goaltending but there shouldn’t be many off nights either.

I think they’re pretty much done this summer.  They still want to keep plenty of lineup spots for their younger players to give them more time to develop, another sign that the rebuild isn’t done just yet.  Once they can determine which ones will be part of the core and which are expendable, then it’ll be time for another round of veteran additions to further raise the floor.  That will be the signal that the intention will shift from the future to the present.

YzerPlan19: What does the Kraken opening night roster look like? Do they make any surprise additions before then? Who is the next William Karlsson breakout candidate?

I wouldn’t be surprised if there isn’t another move or two by the start of the season but I’m thinking more in terms of moving a surplus defenseman and maybe taking on an expensive expiring contract but it wouldn’t be a player that would have a big role.  So with the roster as it currently stands, my attempt at an opening night lineup:

Jaden Schwartz – Alexander Wennberg – Jordan Eberle
Marcus Johansson – Jared McCann – Joonas Donskoi
Brandon Tanev – Calle Jarnkrok – Mason Appleton
Colin Blackwell – Morgan Geekie – Nathan Bastian

Yanni Gourde won’t be ready to start the year after recent shoulder surgery which creates a hole down the middle.  It has been a few years since Jarnkrok played regularly down the middle but I like him on that ‘checking’ line more than someone like Johansson (who struggles at center) or Geekie (not yet ready for that role).  I also expect Matthew Beniers to play in college next season.

Mark Giordano – Adam Larsson
Vince Dunn – Jamie Oleksiak
Carson Soucy – Jeremy Lauzon

Philipp Grubauer
Chris Driedger

In terms of a breakout candidate, McCann feels like the only one that fits.  He has shown flashes of living up to his offensive upside in the past but a bigger and more consistent role could be the key to him showing that skill level more consistently.

sovietcanuckistanian: Not 100% surprised by Krejci uprooting for his home, but it does sting. My query is; as much as I’d love to see an internal candidate pick up his mantle or one of the signings made by the front office pan out in that regard… I’m not going to hold my breath. What/who are realistic options to now plug a rather large hole in the lineup? In the event of a trade, besides DeBrusk going the other way, who would also be prime pickings to be dealt – should a decent trade option present itself?

VonBrewski: Sweeney’s comments of “2nd line center by committee” are absolutely shocking to me. He let Krejci paint him into a corner. I appreciate what Krejci did for the club but doesn’t it seem that with Krejci’s timing and Sweeney not having a backup plan that they both screwed the Bruins? Sweeney does not impress me as a GM at all.

Let’s combine the Krejci questions together.

I hate to be the bearer of bad news here but I don’t see much in the way of viable options for a top-six center to take David Krejci’s position on the roster.  There weren’t many in free agency and in terms of ones they can afford on the cap (in other words, not Jack Eichel or Evgeny Kuznetsov), pickings are pretty slim.  They’ve been speculatively linked to Arizona’s Christian Dvorak which certainly makes sense.  I just don’t think they have the pieces to make it work for the Coyotes.  With the 25-year-old carrying a $4.45MM AAV for four more years, the asking price is going to be high.  Speculatively, I’d expect something in the equivalent of two first-rounders – one pick and one prospect worth that.  They’d want more than that to take on Jake DeBrusk coming off the year he had and his salary too.  I think someone like Fabian Lysell would be a prospect that would fit one hole but with Boston being a team that’s expected to contend for a top-three seed, their projected 2022 first-rounder may be worse than what other teams are offering.  Dvorak would be a great fit but I’m not sure a trade lines up.  If Calgary winds up adding a center via trade, someone like Sean Monahan would make some sense as well although matching money would be a bit tougher.

Beyond that, I’m going to take Sweeney at his word and say it will be filled internally by committee.  Charlie Coyle is going to get the first chance and is the logical choice.  I think Nick Foligno will be an option at some point; he played down the middle frequently with Columbus when there were injuries.  I really liked the Erik Haula signing; he works well as a third center but at times, he has played well enough to be in the top six.  I’m not saying it won’t be an issue but as far as internal options go, they’re not particularly bad.

That’s not absolving GM Don Sweeney entirely, however.  This is something that they haven’t really planned for well over the past few years other than the Coyle acquisition since he had played down the middle with Minnesota at times.  But it’s not all his fault either.  When you’re picking at the back of the first round (or not at all in the first round having traded picks for win-now help), this is what happens.  There’s a reason that impact centers – even second-liners – are hard to come by.  Alexander Wennberg just got $4.5MM per season less than a calendar year after Columbus bought him out.  At best, he’s a second-liner.  Impact centers are the hardest piece to acquire and for a long time, Boston had two of them.  Yes, Sweeney failed in terms of not having a proven backup plan but that’s hardly a problem unique to the Bruins; many teams are or have been in the same situation.

As for Krejci, he earned the right to make the decision when he did and it sounds like he had at least informed Boston that he was leaning in that direction.  I don’t think there’s much blame for him in this.  And Sweeney certainly hasn’t closed the door on him returning at some point either although that’s easier said than done in terms of making it work on the salary cap.

mikedickinson: Major wave of free agency done… Give me your top eight in the East and top eight in the West after the additions and subtractions of players.

Subject to change as I don’t think all of the notable moves on the trade front are all done just yet, here’s a quick guess at the playoff teams as things stand (in no particular order).

Atlantic: Tampa Bay, Boston, Florida
Metropolitan: Carolina, Washington, NY Islanders
East Wild Cards: Toronto, Philadelphia

Central: Colorado, Winnipeg, St. Louis
Pacific: Vegas, Edmonton, Vancouver
West Wild Cards: Dallas, Chicago

2012orioles: Capitals have taken back the idea of trading Kuznetsov. Is this just a tactic to get a better return? Or will he truly be a Capital opening night?

I don’t think it’s a tactic.  As much as there is some negativity surrounding Evgeny Kuznetsov, he’s still a legitimate top-six center and when he’s on, he’s still a top-liner.  They can’t afford to give away that type of talent at a steep discount with an aging Nicklas Backstrom and Lars Eller (who is much better on the third line than the second) in the wings; Connor McMichael isn’t ready yet.

On the flip side, other teams aren’t going to want to pay top dollar with how last year went, especially with a $7.8MM price tag for four more years which looks like above-market value at this point.  There’s definitely a market for Kuznetsov but it’s more a swap of big contracts in the hopes that the change of scenery gets them going.  Is that the type of deal that they should really be doing?  I don’t think so.

They’ve found a way to get cap compliant for next season so they’re not in a spot where they have to move him.  If they don’t get fair value, they can simply hold on to him.  I don’t think he’d fetch fair value in a trade so I don’t think this is a tactic by any stretch.  I expect Kuznetsov will be in a Washington uniform for their opener.

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