PHR Mailbag

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag primarily focus on the upcoming trade deadline with trade scenarios and team needs being discussed.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s edition.

SpeakOfTheDevil: What do the Devils do on or before the deadline? Who do you see us bringing in/shipping out?

I don’t expect a whole lot from New Jersey.  We know they’re looking for a veteran goalie just to allow Nico Daws to go back to Utica and I expect they’ll find a way to accomplish that.  They could look to do like Montreal did with Andrew Hammond and bring in a third-string option (if Jake Allen returns in the next couple of weeks, I could see a scenario where Hammond moves again).  If Marc-Andre Fleury stays in Chicago, someone like Collin Delia makes sense as a target.  I could even see someone like Jaroslav Halak if they want someone a little more proven.  If he decides he’s open to a move and just wants to get some playing time in the hopes of landing a contract for next season, New Jersey makes sense.  They won’t make the playoffs but playing time wouldn’t be hard to come by.

I believe they’ll work to find a spot for P.K. Subban as a rental although it’s a move that likely requires double retention so that the acquiring team is only on the hook for $2.25MM.  That might net the Devils a mid-round pick.  He’s the only pending UFA who realistically has a chance to be moved.

One other player that wouldn’t surprise me if he was moved was Pavel Zacha.  He’s a pending RFA but has just one year of team control left with a qualifying offer of $3MM.  Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier are entrenched as their top two centers of the present and future.  Is there a team that still thinks he could be a second liner or a high-end third liner?  If so, maybe he gets dealt.  Since he’s younger, it’s not just playoff-bound teams that could be interested which expands the options.  As for a return, I could see a couple of different scenarios – a third liner under team control for longer than Zacha or a similar-aged defenseman.  This one doesn’t need to be a swap that brings in futures.  Beyond these, I think it’ll be a pretty quiet deadline for the Devils.

pawtucket: With Edmonton once again struggling…even if they make the playoffs, they are likely facing the Avalanche who are incredible at home and far deeper than them…will McDavid be happy being bounced in the first round? (That is if they MAKE the playoffs!).

Could he demand a trade this offseason?

Never say never, I suppose, but I don’t sense that McDavid is the type of player who is going to make that request.  I share your skepticism in terms of them being able to go far in the playoffs and Colorado certainly isn’t an ideal matchup for them.  But from a long-term perspective, I don’t think they’re that far away from really contending either.  They need a legitimate starting goalie and if they can get one, they can do some damage.  McDavid knows that.

What could happen that may be more realistic is that McDavid goes to GM Ken Holland and states his preference to see a core shakeup that sees a higher-priced player moved out in order to acquire that goaltender.  That type of discussion would happen entirely behind the scenes and might not even leak out publicly.  That’s more in line with the more reserved type of player that McDavid is over flat out requesting a trade if things don’t go well this year.

rdiddy75: What would a trade with Giroux going to the Avalanche look like? Any chance the Flyers can get Barron and Behrens in that deal? That would help their blue line for years.

@IWTFWC: Chances that Avalanche acquire Claude Giroux and if so, what will it cost? (1st rd pick, Tyson Jost and Justin Barron?) Also, chances Avalanche acquire Cal Clutterbuck? Or someone else to help the PK/GET PHYSICAL?

Giroux to Colorado has been out there as a speculative destination for a while and at this point, it certainly sounds like they’re a contender (if not the contender) for his services.  I’ve mentioned in the last mailbag that my expected price point for him was a first-round pick, a prospect, and salary filler with the Flyers retaining half of Giroux’s $8.275MM AAV.

I think we have the foundation of what a deal would look like from these questions – the first-rounder (which will need to be 2023 as 2022’s is already gone) and defensive prospect Justin Barron.  (I don’t think Sean Behrens will be in there unless the formula changes to two prospects plus a roster player.)  I like the idea of Jost in principle as a younger player that could benefit from a change of scenery.  Part of me wonders if they’d prefer to move J.T. Compher instead who’s a little better but costs $1.5MM more against the cap this season and next.  That would give them some extra wiggle room to add a secondary piece now and more space for next year.

Colorado has scouted the Islanders lately and they could benefit from a physical winger for the playoffs.  I’m just not certain that Clutterbuck is the right fit for them.  They play an up-tempo style and Clutterbuck is not an up-tempo player.  I know things slow down in the playoffs and maybe he could fit on the fourth line but he’s expensive for that role ($3.5MM) and if they were to add Giroux, I don’t know if they’d have enough money left to add someone at that price point, even if New York retained.  I’m not going to put odds on it but I wouldn’t be surprised if they wind up with someone that plays a similar role and is cheaper over getting Clutterbuck himself.

jdgoat: Could Cam Atkinson be on the move this deadline?

I wouldn’t count on that happening.  While it periodically happens, players with multiple years left on their contracts at big money (Atkinson has three more years at $5.875MM) don’t tend to move at the deadline.  There’s an expectation that the Flyers aren’t interested in rebuilding and will instead do another shakeup of their core.  That happened last summer and that’s when I think they’ll make those types of moves.  That’s when more teams will be willing to shake things up compared to now when buyers are simply looking to add to their rosters, not mess around with their core.

Atkinson has actually had a nice season for the Flyers with 39 points in 54 games heading into today’s game against Chicago which is good for second on the team in scoring (just one point behind Giroux).  I don’t get the sense that he’s going to be the player that moves as a result.  If they believe they’re closer to the playoffs than their record indicates, Atkinson is the type of player to keep, not move out.

Johnny Z: Where might Namestnikov be traded to and for what?

Let’s answer the second half first.  There are two options for a return that are pretty similar – a mid-round pick or a mid-round pick plus salary ballast.  Where the pick falls depends on retention (if any) and how much the player coming back in the second scenario makes.  (There’s going to be a math component involved in pretty much every trade being made, it’s just the reality of the cap situation for many contenders around the league.)

As for where he goes, there are two types of teams where I think he fits.  One is capped-out teams getting 50% retention making him an affordable upgrade on a fourth liner and the other is a team that may want to add to their roster but doesn’t want to move much of their future.  In the first group, Dallas and Washington come to mind as options.  In the second, Nashville, Los Angeles, and maybe Anaheim if they can hang around the race a little longer.

skidrowe: Rickard Rakell to the Bruins…what would it take?

First, extension talks would need to go nowhere.  Second, Anaheim would need to fall out of the playoff race enough to justify selling.  I can see a scenario where an unsigned Rakell stays, to be honest, if they’re still in the playoff picture even with GM Pat Verbeek’s recent comments.  I doubt they’d hold onto blueliners Hampus Lindholm and Josh Manson without extensions but there’s less risk of doing that with Rakell since quality wingers are easier to replace on the open market than quality defensemen.

But that’s probably not what you’re wanting to hear, you’re wanting a rough trade proposal.  Rakell is tricky in the sense that he’s probably not worth a first-round pick or an ‘A’ prospect but a second-rounder or a ‘B’ prospect alone isn’t going to cut it either.  The prospect that comes to mind is defenseman Urho Vaakanainen.  Anaheim’s back end has been weakened over the years and while the 23-year-old may not be a top-four player, he could be a quality piece on the third pairing for a while.  The Ducks haven’t had a lot of success filling those spots lately which would be appealing.

I could see Verbeek asking for a second-rounder on top of that which may be a bit high for his Boston counterpart in Don Sweeney.  However, if Anaheim agrees to take Chris Wagner’s contract ($1.35MM in the minors), maybe that helps.  That would give Boston $225K of cap relief for next season (the rest of the cap hit comes off when he’s in the minors) and clear up a contract slot.  That said, the Ducks are a budget team and might want to part with the final year of Kodie Curran’s contract ($1MM one-way) to offset part of Wagner’s deal in that scenario.  Is that a proposal that could land Rakell?  Perhaps, although I’m still leaning towards them keeping him unless things go off the rails over the next few weeks.

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The NHL trade deadline is now three weeks away, meaning the playoffs are starting to crest over the horizon. Five teams in the league have already reached the 55-game mark, and only the New York Islanders have yet to play 50. Trades have started, sort of, with Tyler Toffoli easily the biggest name dealt so far. But that won’t last long, as things are heating up all around the league as teams realize whether they’re really in the playoff hunt or just pretending at this point.

With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of the PHR Mailbag. If you missed the last one, it was broken into two parts. In the first, our Brian La Rose examined the surging Los Angeles Kings, how the Boston Bruins might approach the trade deadline, and New Jersey’s goaltending situation moving forward. In the second, the New York Rangers’ deadline plans were discussed, along with the Philadelphia Flyers players that are pending free agents.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. The mailbag will run on the weekend and answer as many questions as possible.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include what the Rangers could do at the trade deadline, potential returns for Philadelphia’s pending free agents, Arizona’s situation with Jakob Chychrun, and much, much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

pitmanrich: With the Rangers exceeding expectations for the season and the likes of Kreider, Fox, Shesty, and Panarin at the top of their games, what does Chris Drury do at the trade deadline? Add rentals or add players with term knowing that more key players need re-signing within the next couple of years?

I think their interest will skew more towards rental players or at least those that aren’t signed for much longer beyond this season.  With new deals for Adam Fox and Mika Zibanejad adding nearly $12MM to the books for 2022-23, a lot of the flexibility they have now won’t be there in a few months let alone to the contracts you may be thinking of (Alexis Lafreniere, Kaapo Kakko, K’Andre Miller, etc).  Ryan Strome’s free agency looms large and that’s the one spot I think they could prove me wrong as getting another impact center locked up long-term is worth creating some possible cap challenges down the road.  And no, J.T. Miller for one extra season isn’t what I’d be targeting unless they think there’s an extension that can be done.

They have the cap space (this season) plus the draft pick and prospect capital to make a splash and adding a key player certainly wouldn’t hurt.  That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if the bulk of their moves are a little quieter.  A top-four defender would really go a long way towards slotting some of their defenders in more optimal spots in the lineup and there is definitely room to make at least a couple of additions to the bottom six.  Adding a strong checker/penalty killer would be wise for matchup purposes in the playoffs, a middle-six center is always a good thing for a contender to add, and a secondary scorer on the wing as an injury hedge are all good options.  They could probably afford to do all of these things by waiting until the deadline but I don’t think they’ll add that many players.  There will be some new faces at MSG though but I wouldn’t be shocked if most of them are free agents in July.

DarkSide830: What would realistic returns look like for certain Flyers players? Claude? Braun? Jones? Maybe Provy?

@SSBRealtor: What could the Flyers realistically get for ’G’ if they traded him?  A decent prospect?

GBear: It would seem that the Flyers will move Giroux at the deadline, so what teams do you see being interested in him and what will the asking price look like?

Let’s combine all of the Flyers stuff together.  Before getting to Giroux, I’ll touch on the other players first.

Justin Braun – Third-round pick.  He definitely can help a third pairing and on the penalty kill but he has his limitations and is probably a sixth defender on a lot of contenders.  He’s also a right-shot defender in a marketplace that doesn’t have a lot of those.  I don’t see anyone going higher than a third but if a few teams are willing to pay that third-rounder, perhaps they can squeeze a later pick or depth prospect as well.

Martin Jones – Late-round pick if he moves at all.  How many playoff-bound teams look at him as an improvement on their current backup?  It’s a small list.  If there’s a team with ample cap space that can carry three goalies and effectively have Jones as a highly-paid reserve, there’s probably a move to be made.  But how many third-string goalies generate a strong trade return?

Ivan Provorov – I don’t think he moves.  If the Flyers were selling, I’d say he’s worth a first-round pick, an ‘A’ prospect, and some sort of established defenseman (for cap purposes).  But I don’t think Philadelphia is selling.  Last summer, they made some player-for-player moves to shake up the core.  That’s the type of scenario that seems more plausible to me if they were considering moving him but that’s a trade that’s easier to make in June or July than it is now.  Having said that, I think he’s in a Philadelphia sweater in October.

As for Claude Giroux, he is one of the more intriguing players to think about as far as rentals go.  No one knows if he’s willing to waive his trade protection to go to a contender.  He doesn’t even know at this point.  If he is, he’d jump pretty close to the top of the list among rental players that are realistic candidates to be moved with the caveat that the Flyers retain half of his $8.275MM AAV.  Without that, they can’t maximize their value and if they’re moving him, they’re going to want to maximize their value so for the purposes of this exercise, let’s assume they’re picking up 50%.

I think any return for Giroux is a three-piece one.  A first-round pick should be on the table at a minimum.  There’s going to be some sort of cap/salary ballast even with retention, a $2MM winger or something like that on a short-term if not expiring contract.  Who’s giving up the first-round pick and when will determine how prominent the third piece – a prospect – is.  If it’s a true contender who’s expected to be picking in the late 20s/early 30s, that prospect is going to be close to an A-level one.  But if it’s one who could be an early-exit candidate where the pick is a bit higher, the caliber of prospect will drop accordingly.

In terms of possible suitors, I like the Avalanche here if they can make the money work.  Adding another impact forward would give them a big boost offensively and while that’s not necessarily a huge need for them, they’re all-in and any upgrade is a good one.  If the Rangers opt for a prominent rental, they should be in the mix as well.  Minnesota has a need and while there’s no way he’d fit cap-wise beyond this season, they can add him this year.  I’ve seen Boston suggested as a fit and while there is one on paper, I’m not sure this is the right time for them to pay the type of price that should be needed to get him when they’re a team that seems likely to be in a Wild Card spot.

pawtucket: Should Arizona stand pat with Chychrun since he’s playing like a pile of hot garbage right now (considering his success last year) and maybe look to move him when his stock is back where it belongs?

The Coyotes are playing the market perfectly for Chychrun right now.  They’ve set an exorbitant asking price to the point where if a team met it, they’d be overpaying by a considerable margin (such as the Kings proposal from last weekend’s mailbag, it’s absolutely a crazy overpayment by Los Angeles but barring that type of return, they’ll hold onto him).  They’re firmly in the driver’s seat here.

Teams are smart enough to realize that Arizona is a bit of a unique environment to the point where it’s hard to look good, especially when you’re the one going against top competition every night on a team that has no hopes of winning anytime soon.  On a more competitive team, I think pretty much everyone thinks Chychrun will rebound so his current season shouldn’t hurt his value much, if at all.

There are several teams where he’d be a number one defenseman and at $4.6MM for three more years after this one, there is plenty of surplus value in his deal.  It may be easier to move him in the summer when more teams have cap flexibility and a willingness to change core players but even at that point, the price will be significant.  Ask for the moon now and if someone is willing to pay it, ask for a bit more and then make the deal.  If no one’s willing to pay up, they can easily wait things out.

wreckage: Should the Oilers trade one of McDavid or Draisaitl in an attempt to build a more complete team. And what could the return look like?

GM Ken Holland has boxed himself in to an extent with some of the long-term contracts he has handed out as of late.  There isn’t a lot of financial flexibility moving forward which is going to make it extremely difficult (if not impossible) to address improved depth for next season and beyond and their goaltending for the foreseeable future.

Trading one of Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl shouldn’t be Plan A so I’m not going to sit here and say they should do that but I wouldn’t be shocked if it came to that in a couple of years.  If they can’t make a deep playoff run this season or next, it’s going to be time for the Oilers to look in the mirror and ask themselves if a team built this way can ever get to that level (and by then, it may not be Holland trying to answer that question).

At that point, Draisaitl will be two years away from testing the market and McDavid three.  If they can’t clear out some of their long-term contracts, it’s going to be hard to keep them both.  So when is the optimal time to try to move one of them?  It’s probably in this stretch and I’d suggest Draisaitl would be the one to go.  Two full seasons of an elite center would yield a big return and allow them to either kickstart a rebuild or try to fill some of those big holes.

That makes a trade hard to forecast.  If they’re rebuilding, they’d be looking for multiple first-round picks, top-end prospects, and young, controllable NHL talent.  If they’re retooling, they’ll be looking to fill some holes and I can’t project what those would be in 2024 as I expect some of their current ones will be addressed by then (or at least they’ll try to do so).  I’d think they’d want an established cost-controlled top-six forward and top-four defenseman, plus some other younger assets to either serve as low-cost regulars for a bit or assets to flip for other win-now pieces.  It’s a fun ‘what if’ scenario but it’s a bit early to try to make some projections on what they’d get back.

Coach Tucci: Do you see the Islanders making any moves to strengthen the team or will they be sellers?

I feel the Islanders are better than where they are in the standings.  They had a lot go against them in the early going this season.  But they’re 17 points out of a Wild Card spot.  I know they have games in hand on everybody but that still seems like far too much of a gap to try to make up.

That said, I don’t think they’re going to sell all that much, in large part because they don’t have a great group of pending unrestricted free agents.  Cal Clutterbuck has a bad contract and probably isn’t worth much, Zach Parise can’t score, and Zdeno Chara and Andy Greene are role players at most for contenders.  There could be a late-round pick or two for some of them but that’s about it.

Because they had so many negatives early on (the long road trip to start, plenty of injuries, and an untimely COVID outbreak), I can’t see Lou Lamoriello really wanting to subtract too much from his core.  They’ll actually have a bit of cap flexibility next summer to try to add at that point so I suspect they’ll want to keep their cap space for that time.

If I had to pick one veteran signed for next season that could go, it’s goalie Semyon Varlamov.  Having that platoon with Ilya Sorokin is nice but that could be money that’s reallocated towards another impact piece for 2022-23.  There are playoff-bound teams that could use Varlamov but it might be easier to do that deal in June or July than it is now.  Long story short, I expect a pretty quiet deadline from the Islanders.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the back end for the Kings, New Jersey’s goaltending situation, Boston’s trade deadline approach, the idea of the Red Wings being buyers, Toronto’s new lines, trade odds for Columbus, and Seattle’s recent victories.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

Weasel 2: Realistic opportunity for the Kings to add an impact defenseman? What would a Kings package for Chychrun look like?

Honestly, I don’t think it’s the right time for the Kings to push in some of their chips to try to make a big splash, especially on the back end where the options are rentals or paying through the teeth for Jakob Chychrun.  If Alexander Edler returns during the regular season, they need to have the cap space to be able to activate him which effectively cuts what they can currently spend in half.    I’d shop more on the depth side of things where the cost is a lot lower (I’ve mentioned Detroit’s Troy Stecher in the past as someone I think would be a worthwhile and affordable addition) as I don’t think they’re a big add away from really contending.

Among the impact rental defensemen out there, I’d look at Montreal’s Ben Chiarot as a realistic option.  I don’t see Anaheim dealing their two key rental blueliners in the division if they sell and I don’t think Chiarot will get the first-round pick that some have suggested is the current asking price; there are only so many first-rounders that are going to move and there will be better players moved than Chiarot.  A second-round pick and a good prospect (of which the Kings have several) could be enough without taking away any top assets.  Newly-hired advisor Marc Bergevin is quite familiar with what Montreal has and that type of familiarity can help on the trade front.

There are varying reports as to how many pieces are needed for Chychrun.  It ranges between three first-round elements and an Eichel-like return.  The Kings don’t quite have the similar pieces from the Eichel return so I think something along the lines of Quinton Byfield, Alex Turcotte, and a first-round pick is probably in the range of what Arizona is looking for with perhaps a secondary piece (prospect or second-rounder tacked on to get closer to the four-piece Eichel return).  It’s a huge ask but Arizona doesn’t have to move Chychrun unless they’re blown away and I don’t think the Kings should be the team to make that type of move.

Speak Of The Devil: What can the Devils realistically do to make their goaltending situation better? Blackwood is clearly not the answer here and Bernier is done for the year and there are rumors he may be done for his career. So, who can we go after to end this hamster wheel of mediocrity?

Jack Campbell is setting himself up for a nice payday as the best starter available in free agency and New Jersey has plenty of cap space at their disposal still.  He’s about the only long-term option available (I know Darcy Kuemper is another option but with his injury history, there’s some risk) so if they’re convinced his stint with Toronto isn’t a mirage but rather a true sign of where he is, back up the money truck and make sure not to get outbid for his services.  With his overall inexperience though, it’s a bit of a risk.

The first name that came to mind when I saw this question was Sergei Bobrovsky.  Florida is going to want to move him at some point even with the season he’s having; Spencer Knight is their goalie of the future and they’re going to want to reallocate Bobrovsky’s $10MM price tag with Aleksander Barkov’s new deal starting next season and Jonathan Huberdeau up next summer.  There’s a chance for the Devils to take advantage of that if they think Bobrovsky’s back on track and could get him for a below-market trade return.  But it’s a gamble again.

But here’s the thing.  Every goalie I can throw out there is a question mark.  Alexandar Georgiev is probably going to move and the rivalry notwithstanding, is he really a starter?  He could be but it’s a risk.  If St. Louis wants to go all in on Ville Husso and move Jordan Binnington, is he much of an upgrade on Blackwood?  Semyon Varlamov would be a short-term solution so the hamster wheel wouldn’t stop spinning for long.  Philipp Grubauer has had a brutal season in Seattle but was good in Colorado so maybe he’s a fit but five years is a lot for a gamble.  You could sell me on adding Linus Ullmark to that list to let Boston run with Jeremy Swayman but there are question marks with him as well.

In pretty much every scenario, it’s going to be a roll of the dice.  That’s the challenge with the way the league is going with goaltending – there just aren’t 32 legitimate starting goalies out there let alone teams having a surplus at that spot that doesn’t come with a poison pill of sorts.  There are upgrades available but few guarantees and with Bernier’s future in question, it wouldn’t be shocking to see the Devils try to add a goalie next offseason.  These will be some of the names they likely look to.

case7187: Do you think the B’s could package those three horrible first-round picks DeBrusk, Senyshyn, and Zboril for a guy like J.T. Miller or someone similar to him or would they have to add picks or Vaakanainen to any deals?

SkidRowe: Realistically, what can the Bruins do? They have a lot of talent but they also have glaring needs at C, LD, and RW. Besides draft picks, they don’t have many cheap, young assets to trade (unless they’re willing to move Swayman). Studnicka and Vaakanainen are okay prospects but not exciting. DeBrusk is overpaid and underperforming. Frederic is a former 1st rounder but he’s bottom 6 only. It will be tough for the Bruins to make a competitive offer for any of the big names that may be out there (Chychrun, Hertl, J.T. Miller) given their lack of assets. If they were lucky enough to acquire one of the bigger fish, they would have nothing left to fill their other needs.

@BobbyRotondo: What are the Bruins going to do?

Let’s put all of the Boston questions together.

On the first one, I’ll pose a question back – if the picks are as horrible as they’ve been, why is Vancouver dealing an impact player on a team-friendly contract for them?  Draft pedigree is meaningless at this stage of their careers.  Jake DeBrusk’s trade value is next to zero with his salary and limited production.  He’s not getting a qualifying offer and he’s not producing enough to get teams interested.  They can make a move involving him for a similarly-paid underachiever but that’s about it.  Zach Senyshyn cleared waivers at the start of the season and has been good but not great in the minors.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he moves but it’d be for a depth piece in lieu of trading a late-round pick back; that’s where his value is.  I think Jakub Zboril could become a third-pairing player but he’s out for the year with a torn ACL so his value right now is minimal at best.

So, what can the Bruins do?  They have some cap space to work with which puts them in pretty good shape to try to make a splash.  But they also don’t have the long-term cap room to work with to add another high-priced player to this core assuming they’re able to re-sign Patrice Bergeron this summer and David Pastrnak the following offseason.  Making the playoffs shouldn’t be an issue but they look like a Wild Card team more than a contender.  Is moving one of those few quality young trade assets as was correctly noted for an impact rental player the right move at this time?  I don’t think so.  You do that when you’re trying to contend, not become less of an underdog in the first round; there is no one rental player that puts them over the top in terms of contention.

Remember the Drew Stafford trade from a few years ago?  Boston was able to get him for cheap in large part because of his contract.  That’s the type of move I think they’ll look at.  Add a quality veteran or two that will improve the depth and provide a bit of upside relative to the players they’ll be replacing but with their cap hits being higher than they should be, they won’t have to move much to get them.  Those are incremental improvements to the roster without mortgaging the future.  For a team in their situation, they shouldn’t be doing much more than that.  That’s not exciting but it’s prudent and with their prospect pool not being the deepest right now, I think it’s the right course of action.

HockeyBoz: Is there a chance that the Red Wings are interested in Klingberg? Staal, Leddy, DeKeyser all could be gone next year. Hronek slipping on the depth chart. Might be a good pick-up. They have draft picks stockpiled. Thoughts??

John Klingberg is going to yield a nice return in a trade for Dallas even as a pending free agent.  I want to particularly emphasize that last bit.  Klingberg will be an unrestricted free agent this summer.  Detroit enters play today nine points out of a playoff spot with Boston (the team holding the final spot) having three games in hand.  It would make no sense for the Red Wings to trade for Klingberg as a rental; they’d still almost certainly miss the playoffs and be out some draft picks or prospects for good measure.

Now, if Klingberg was to sign a contract extension as part of a trade, that’s another story.  Is it worth parting with a good pick or prospect to secure Klingberg for seven or eight more seasons?  Sure.  And in that situation, it would make sense for GM Steve Yzerman to consider.  If Klingberg makes it to free agency in July, then they should absolutely be involved; at some point, Detroit will need to start building back their veteran talent base which would go a long way towards helping them take a big step or two forward.

If Klingberg is willing to sign with Detroit right now, then they should be interested in him over the coming weeks.  Otherwise, they have no business being involved in a trade for him and would be best served to wait until the summer to go after him.

Detroit_SP: Does the Red Wings’ best QUALITY option at 2C for 2022-23+ already play on the team? If not, how does the team add a non-rental piece that can contribute quickly enough not to waste Bertuzzi, Larkin, Fabbri, and Vrana’s time with the organization?

I don’t think so.  I like Joseph Veleno but he’s more of a checker than a top-six guy.  Michael Rasmussen shows flashes of offensive skill but I feel he’s also more of a third liner in an ideal situation.  Pius Suter isn’t going to be a second liner long-term either.

So how do they get one?  They can offer a huge contract to Nazem Kadri in free agency or pay a hefty price to get one in a trade.  It cost Montreal a first-rounder plus a second-rounder to get Christian Dvorak, a lower-end 2C.  If you want a quality piece, it’s going to cost a high-end prospect at a minimum; teams moving one with some team control would be asking about guys like Simon Edvinsson.  Controllable impact centers are worth that much.

You make a good point about not wasting the remaining years for their current veteran core and I tend to lean the same way.  Cup contention comes from a combination of good veterans, young impact players that aren’t on high-priced contracts, and impact pieces on entry-level pacts.  That’s the ideal way to maximize talent in the salary cap era.  That particular structure only has a few years left as at that point, their current veterans will either cost more or will have moved on.  This isn’t the season to do it – they’re probably not making the playoffs – but that switch should be flipped this summer.

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We’re coming up on the NHL All-Star break and a few days past the halfway point of the schedule. Jakob Chychrun and John Klingberg are squarely in the rumor mill, as the Coyotes and Stars try to squeeze the most value out of their departing defensemen. Evander Kane’s situation is still up in the air, and players from around the world are departing for the Olympics.

With all that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of the PHR Mailbag. If you missed the last one, it was broken into two parts. In the first, our Brian La Rose examined the Philadelphia Flyers situation right as they fired Alain Vigneault, wrote about the Kane situation before his minor league incident, and took a look at the disappointing Winnipeg Jets campaign. In the second, he projected out future point totals for players like Matty Beniers and Cole Perfetti, looked at J.T. Miller as a trade candidate, and discussed the struggles for many of the Canadian teams this year.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. The mailbag will run on the weekend and answer as many questions as possible.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Mike Sullivan’s candidacy for the Jack Adams award, future scoring projections, an intriguing trade target for the Bruins, discussing the struggles of several Canadian teams, and league ownership.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in Monday’s mailbag.

Rayno15: Why is Mike Sullivan not in the running for Coach of the Year?

Who says he isn’t?  It’s an award that’s voted on at the end of the season, not just past the one-quarter mark.  The end result in the standings often dictates who is and isn’t a finalist for this award and in mid-December, it’s way too early to set that.

To be honest, I think Sullivan could be a viable contender depending on how things play out.  Pittsburgh has been hit hard with injuries this season with offensive cornerstones Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Jake Guentzel, and Bryan Rust all having missed or are currently missing significant time while most of their back end has missed a handful of games as well.  To be hanging around the playoff mix in spite of all of that is certainly impressive.

But can they stay there?  It’s one thing to be in the mix in December and another to be playing in May when the playoffs get underway this season.  Where they finish will determine whether or not Sullivan is a viable candidate for the award.  If they can get into the playoffs in spite of their injury trouble, there’s a good chance he’ll be on quite a few Jack Adams ballots.

The Duke: Dear PHRM Crystal Ball, As you know by now, I’m always looking to be one step ahead in my 12-team Keeper League, ergo I pose these questions:

1. Of the following, please rank and project which has the quicker/brighter scoring future, with goals ranked ahead of assists: Matt Beniers, Adam Beckman, Cole Perfetti & Jack Dugan.
2. Same as above for Rasmus Sandin and Calen Addison.

1) In terms of a quicker future, I don’t think you’re going to see any of these four get substantial NHL action this season.  Perhaps Beniers at the end of the year will see time but there’s no short-term impact coming.  Next season, I’d expect both Beniers and Perfetti to be regulars and likely in a top-six role.  The fact that Dugan didn’t get a look last season was curious and injuries haven’t helped this year.  But he turns 24 in March so the clock is ticking fast on his NHL upside.  Beckman’s skating is a concern for me.  The rest of his skillset is promising but overcoming skating has been easier said than done.

That puts Beniers and Perfetti in a class of their own for me as the other two may be more complementary players than high-impact ones.  I’ll rank them by a ballpark guess of what a typical season for them could be in terms of goals and points once they’re established in the league.

Beniers: 30/80
Perfetti: 25/60
Dugan: 15/40
Beckman: 15/35

2) Obviously, Sandin is the quicker option considering that he has basically been a regular this season with the Maple Leafs while Addison has been up and down with Minnesota.  Barring injuries, Addison probably isn’t a regular down the stretch while Sandin should stay in Toronto’s lineup.  So for short-term help, Sandin is the better play.

I also think he’s the higher-scoring option on a long-term basis.  Neither project to see substantial power play time with veterans locked up in front of them on the depth chart (Morgan Rielly and Jared Spurgeon) and both have top-four upside at five-on-five.  If I have to guess which one will be the higher-scoring option, I’ll go with the team that has the better long-term offensive outlook and that’s Toronto.  Minnesota’s scoring more this season but is that sustainable with the cap-related cuts to the roster?  I’m not so sure on that one.  Nonetheless, their projections would be pretty close:

Sandin: 8/30
Addison: 6/25

I could see both of them having some years where they’re over those thresholds but others where they’re below so call that an average forecast.

SkidRowe: J.T. Miller to the Bruins. What would it take?

From a fit perspective, this would certainly be a good one for Boston.  He could slide into the number two center spot that they’ve been trying to find the right fit for all season long and plays an all-situations game that would really make their top six a real strong spot.

However, it’s worth mentioning the cap situation before digging into a hypothetical trade.  Boston has just over $13MM in cap room for next season, per CapFriendly.  Adding Miller would knock that just under $8MM with a few roster spots to fill including re-signing Patrice Bergeron.  That would be a very tight squeeze, perhaps too tight to try to fill.  Accordingly, Boston would need to move out some money for next season to make a move justifiable; acquiring Miller only to have his contract price out Bergeron next summer wouldn’t be ideal.

I’m sure you’re thinking Jake DeBrusk would be part of such a package but I don’t think his trade value is all that strong. Vancouver doesn’t have the cap space to take multiple pricey players back and DeBrusk’s deal is up next season and the Bruins should want to clear some 2022-23 money off the books here.  I don’t think he’s a good fit here as a result.  Given the state of the Canucks’ defense, I could see someone like Matt Grzelcyk carrying some value and that would offset a good chunk of Miller’s money.  A first-round pick is a given as well.

These deals also usually have a good prospect in there.  I could see Vancouver interim GM Jim Rutherford asking for John Beecher, a 2019 first-rounder if the trade market for Miller is robust enough to basically get a second first-rounder included and with the season he’s having, that’s a definite possibility if he’s made available.  I could see Boston GM Don Sweeney countering with someone like Jack Studnicka.  Two-way point-per-game centers don’t become available often and while Miller would be a great fit for Boston, he’d be a great fit for many other teams as well.  The price is going to sting as a result, especially with him on a below-market contract for another year.  Either way, this is a move that probably comes closer to the trade deadline as right now, the Canucks are still trying to get back into the playoff hunt.

pawtucket: How does one put out the Canadian tire fires that are the Canucks, Canadiens, Sens, and even recently the Jets?

Vancouver: They’ve made two big swings quickly with Bruce Boudreau and Rutherford coming in as win-now people.  From an ownership perspective, they’re hoping Boudreau can turn things around and the early returns are good.  Their defense still needs improvement although getting one with next to no cap space will be a challenge.  They could still sneak into the playoffs and while that’s not a great accomplishment, this is a win-now roster and they have to get to the postseason to see if this core group can get something done.  A bit of patience will be needed as Boudreau makes his mark.

Montreal: Sometimes, it’s just not your year.  The Canadiens are beyond battered due to injuries and have already set a franchise record for the most games played in a calendar year at 106 (and they have nine more before the month is out).  I don’t think they get out of this funk this season and they will embark on some sort of rebuild/reset by the trade deadline with a coaching change as soon as the offseason to see if a different approach can spark the players that are still around.

Ottawa: I thought they’d be better this season.  Not necessarily a playoff team but not a lottery contender either, however, injuries have hurt them as well.  For now, it’s ride it out with some prospects getting a longer look but for the offseason, they need to do a better job of bringing in impactful buffer veterans that can shelter some of their younger players instead of just taking up spots at the back of the roster.  That would help move them from the back of the standings towards the middle where they’ll be battling for a Wild Card spot and although that’s not too exciting, it’s a step they need to take; teams rarely go from pretender to contender all at once.

Winnipeg: I don’t think there’s much they really can do.  They’re in a money in, money out situation so the only card they have to play is a coaching change and I don’t think that’s warranted at this time.  As I mentioned in last week’s mailbag, I think they’ll be fine by the end of the season.

blueavenger77: Has the NHL ever had a publicly owned franchise similar to the NFL’s Green Bay Packers? If not, do NHL rules prohibit a publicly held non-profit corporation from owning a team? I ask the question because it seems to me that many NHL franchises would have a better chance of stability and success with a different ownership structure.

There isn’t anything quite like Green Bay’s public ownership structure in the NHL with the closest thing to any type of public ownership being able to buy shares in the group that owns the team such as the Rangers and Madison Square Garden Entertainment.  There’s nothing that I can see in the NHL Constitution that prohibits such an ownership structure although there is a note that says the Board of Governors can change the ‘membership’ criteria from time to time which, I suppose, could allow them to block such an attempt if they so desired.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the tough starts for the Flyers and Jets, Evander Kane’s situation, trade candidates closer to the deadline, and the television deal in the United States.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

BlackAce57: It seems like the most consistent part of the Flyers the last three to five years has been their inconsistency. With the injuries to older big salary players and the young guns still not stepping up to what was expected, will this just be another season of mediocrity?

DarkSide830: What should the Flyers do? Is sacking AV and seeing if the new coach can spark the team a good start?

Being consistently inconsistent is certainly a hallmark of Philadelphia’s hockey teams in recent years and enough coaches, players, and general managers to make it a baffling trait.  There has been enough turnover on all fronts that it shouldn’t keep happening.  Making more big changes as they’ve now done certainly isn’t going to guarantee that this stops being the case.

Injuries haven’t helped their cause this season and yes, the minimal progression of some of their younger players like Joel Farabee, Travis Konecny, and Travis Sanheim has compounded that problem.  That said, I’m not willing to write off their playoff chances just yet; one of their hot streaks would get them right back in the race.  They’re not good enough to contend and not bad enough to bottom out and if you’re worried about them being in that mediocre zone, that’s probably where they’re going to land.

As for Vigneault, my original answer that was going to run Sunday night before Vancouver’s shakeup occurred was that I thought GM Chuck Fletcher would wait it out until the end of the season and re-assess from there.  Clearly, that isn’t the route they took given today’s news.  I’m not sure that promoting Mike Yeo is going to spark them but he does have some experience in the top role and he’s certainly a reasonable one to turn to.

In his recent press conference, Fletcher preached patience for his roster and I take him at his word.  They haven’t had a healthy squad for most of the season so it’s harder to evaluate the ceiling for this team and now the coaching change will make that a bit more challenging.  I think they’re a bubble team and as long as they hang around the playoff mix, I don’t think they’ll do much.

As for what they should do, I’d let the season play out and if they fall out of the race a bit more, try to get something for some of their expiring contracts.  By then, hopefully they’ll have had some more games at full strength to get a sense of what they can do at full strength.  They have a window where they can make some notable changes again next summer with Claude Giroux and several defenders heading for free agency.  That’s a good spot to decide on pivoting towards a reset or whether some more core tinkering (and perhaps another coaching change if it’s decided Yeo isn’t the long-term option) will be enough to get them battling for top spot in the Metropolitan.  I’d lean towards the reset; we’ll see eventually if they see it the same way.

trak2k: Why doesn’t the NHL require mouth guards for forwards and defensemen?

Also is there any way for the Sharks to get rid of Evander Kane without owing him his full salary?

On the first one, most already do but there are always some holdouts, just like with helmets back in the day.  It’s sort of a CBA issue as there is a joint committee between the league and NHLPA to determine what is and isn’t needed.  Obviously, enough players are against it enough to the point where the NHLPA isn’t going to want it mandatory and it’s not vital enough of an issue for the league to try to push something through like they did with visors.  If players want to run the risk of losing some more teeth, it’s their call to make.

As for Kane, there are a couple of ways to move him without paying his full salary, at least in theory.  The first is a trade with retention which is allowable up to 50% of the contract, or $3.5MM of Kane’s AAV; the same percentage is taken off his salary each year.  At this point, San Jose has indicated a willingness to go that route even though there are three years left after this one; they’d be paying a lot of money for him to not play there.  But with the behind the scenes stuff, will there be a taker at $3.5MM?  That’s hardly a guarantee which is why some have wondered if a third team will need to get involved, retain more of the contract (while receiving some sort of compensation for that), and then move him on.  Kane will need to play well with the Barracuda for a while before any type of trade could take place.

Another option – and perhaps the likelier one at this point – is a buyout in the summer.  San Jose can pay two-thirds of his remaining salary (plus all of the signing bonus money) spread out over six years for him to leave.  Doing so would cost them $10MM in actual money and drop his AAV from $7MM to $3.667MM in 2022-23, $2.667MM in 2023-24, $4.667MM in 2024-25, and $1.667MM for three years after that.  The Sharks don’t have the ability to void Kane’s contract for his fake vaccine card – Forbes’ Eric Macramalla explained the reasoning for that back in October – and while he could, in theory, agree to a contract termination, it’s quite unlikely he’d do so given his bankruptcy situation.

Y2KAK: Who would you see as some of the biggest players traded at the trade deadline?

Barring a bunch of extensions, I think it could be a fun trade deadline for rentals.  On the wing, Phil Kessel seems like a lock to move.  With his low salary and high cap hit, it’s one that Arizona may prefer to keep until closer to March 21.  I’m not sure Nashville is willing to lock up Filip Forsberg on a contract similar to the one that Gabriel Landeskog got to stay with the Avalanche and losing him for nothing but cap space wouldn’t be a good return at all so I think he goes.

Can San Jose afford to keep Tomas Hertl?  Getting any sort of cap relief (however minimal) for Kane would help but the prospect of letting him walk without a trade return would hurt.  The Sharks don’t have a deep farm system and he’s the one piece that could help to replenish it.  It’d be hard to part with him if they’re still in the playoff picture but it may be the better play long term.

I’m really curious to see what happens in Anaheim.  Defensemen Josh Manson and Hampus Lindholm plus winger Rickard Rakell are all probably in extend or trade situations.  Can interim GM Jeff Solomon work out new contracts for any of those three?  If not, while a shot at a playoff round would be nice from a financial standpoint, the smarter play would still be to sell.

Are all of these players going to move?  Probably not.  But I wouldn’t be surprised if a few of these names are traded over the next few months.

FearTheWilson: What’s with the Jets? Year after year they ice a highly talented team yet other than a trip to the WCF they haven’t had much success. Is it finally time to part ways with Paul Maurice?

For the talent Winnipeg has, it has been a flawed roster over the years.  Their defense last year had to be in the mix for the bottom five in the league after they lost so much so fast with not enough brought in to replace them and it’s hard to have a lot of playoff success with a bad back end.  Center depth – even when Bryan Little was healthy – always seemed to be an issue.  Their cap management hasn’t been the greatest either which has resulted in a few too many league minimum players on their roster lately.

In terms of this season, I think they’re going to be just fine.  Mark Scheifele will find another gear.  Blake Wheeler isn’t going to be held without a goal forever; he’ll get going again.  Connor Hellebuyck is still one of the top goalies in the league and their defense is a lot better this season.

How far they go will determine Maurice’s fate as I think he’s getting really close to a make-or-break situation.  Either they get through that ceiling and have a better playoff showing or it’ll be time to ask if he’s taken them as far as he can.  How they perform in May (and maybe June) will answer whether or not it’s time for a change.

CPL: Seems there is less NHL on TV under the new contract. TNT games are at 10 pm EST and most ESPN games are on ESPN+/Hulu. Will that continue all year?

There certainly haven’t been many national telecasts early on but that’s not surprising.  TNT doesn’t have the ‘A’ package so they don’t have a lot of games and ESPN is trying to get people to subscribe to ESPN+ in the early going.  That will change a bit as the season progresses as in the second half when there will be a national game on ESPN most weeks as well as ABC picking up some Saturday games as well.  ESPN’s full schedule can be found here.

As for TNT, their schedule is back-loaded as well.  Of their 50-game slate (which can be seen here), 40 still remain and there are a lot of double-headers in the second half of the season.  Yes, there are a lot of late games in there still but there will be more earlier games for them as well for you to look forward to.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Detroit’s back end, what Tomas Hertl’s next contract could look like, Toronto’s roster composition, under the radar minor leaguers who could make an NHL impact over the next few years, and a note on teams who may have needed financial help last season.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

Johnny Z: Filip Hronek was healthy scratched for two games. He has been the Wings’ leader in TOI for two years and logged big minutes for the first four games. Is Stevie about to trade him? It seems plausible as his value seems very good and has three years left on his deal.

Benching a player at this time of the season is rarely for a trade.  A few days before the trade deadline, sure, it’s protecting the asset but in the first few weeks, it’s to send a message.  Obviously, Jeff Blashill wasn’t overly impressed with Hronek’s play and decided to get that point across early on.  It seems to have worked as Hronek has been better since coming back.

You’re absolutely correct in that he would have a lot of trade value.  Few others on their team have the type of value that Hronek does.  But at the same time, he’s someone that should be viewed as part of their future core.  On the back end, Moritz Seider looks promising, but he’s about the only one other than Hronek on the current roster that plausibly has a shot at being an impact piece when they come out of their rebuild.  (Gustav Lindstrom could factor in as well but as more of a depth player than an impact one.)  With that in mind, they should be looking to hold onto Hronek.

YzerPlan19: With the hole on the right side in LA and the ton of young assets they have could the Kings be a potential trade partner?

The fit that I see isn’t one that would yield one of those young assets.  Hronek and Seider aren’t moving.  Lindstrom is too young to be moved just yet.  That takes three of the four righties on the NHL roster off the table.

Then there’s Troy Stecher, a player who has felt like a placeholder from the moment he signed with the Red Wings.  He’s someone that can play on the second pairing if needed or be a minute-eater on the third pairing.  That’s more of what the Kings are looking for to replace Sean Walker (since they can’t do a lot to replace Drew Doughty as he’s expected back six weeks or so from now).  He’s a rental and at $1.7MM, he’s cheap enough that it would leave them enough wiggle room to afford to recall someone from the minors into the rest of Walker’s LTIR space.  The on-ice fit is there and the cap fit is there.

But here’s the thing.  The return isn’t going to be overly significant.  I don’t think he’d land a second-rounder at the deadline so that sort of sets the baseline of a third-rounder or equivalent prospect here with maybe a late pick tacked on.  That’s not the type of young asset you may have been hoping for but if they want to give Lindstrom a longer look, it’s a move that is probably worth making from Detroit’s perspective.

mz90gu: What kind of contract can Hertl expect?

This is the type of question that should probably get its own article at some point closer to free agency.  Hertl has a lot going for him – he’ll only be 28 (so a max-term deal is realistic), he plays a premium position that is in high demand and short supply, and he’s played around a 70-point pace for the last few years.  That’s a great combination to have heading into a walk year.

At first glance, I think Sean Couturier’s extension with Philadelphia is the ballpark of where Hertl’s deal will fall.  They’re a year apart age-wise and have produced at similar extrapolated numbers over the past few seasons.  Couturier has a Selke Trophy which Hertl doesn’t (and won’t get) so it’s not a perfect comparison but he’s going to get a premium if he makes it to the open market.

Couturier signed for eight years and $62MM, a $7.75MM AAV.  I think Hertl’s range sandwiches that amount, falling between $7.5MM and $8MM.  If he re-signs with the Sharks, the ability to add an eighth year to the contract could push the cap hit towards the lower part of that range.  That said, making the cap situation work with a raise like that will be easier said than done for GM Doug Wilson.

KAR 120C: Odds that Dubas either trades one of his four or loses his job. As a result of putting 50% of the cap into four players and it not working out well (imho).

@Darrell_Samuels: ’Simple’ question – how do you fix the Toronto Maple Leafs?

I’m going to combine these as the answers sort of go together.

Dubas will eventually lose his job – all general managers do; it’s part of the business.  So I’m going to put odds on one of those things happening this season.  I’ll set it at around 10%.  I don’t think Toronto will move one of their ‘core four’ up front during the regular season and it’s difficult to move big contracts for full value in-season.  And unless things fall completely off the rails over the next couple of months, there probably isn’t going to be an in-season GM change either.

A lot depends on whether they can get out of the first round.  That’s the barometer for success this year; numbers during the regular season aren’t going to matter if they’re quickly bounced again.  Before the season, I predicted they’d win a round so I’ll stick by that and if that happens, Dubas will likely stick around.

But since these questions came out, Morgan Rielly signed his new deal, one that puts another big contract on the books.  I’m not sure they should try the same approach of rounding out the roster with a bunch of low-cost deals and hoping that the end result is different this time but it’s not as if they have a lot of options as their top two centers aren’t being moved.

It sounds a little counter-intuitive to say that moving a top forward is how to fix things but with how their cap is structured, it’s the only way to really change things; swapping sub-$1MM players isn’t going to move the needle much.  If Mitch Marner is moved for a top-six winger making half as much as he is plus some futures, there’s the cap space to keep Jack Campbell and maybe have a bit left over to put towards upgrading one of their cheaper forwards.  If they want to risk going with Petr Mrazek as the full-fledged starter and go cheap on the backup goalie, then the Marner move would give them a chance to add another middle-six piece to deepen the roster and a bit more quality depth up front.

Long term, their hope is that players like Nicholas Robertson, Rodion Amirov, and maybe someone like Alex Steeves can come in and play a regular role and lengthen the lineup.  At that time, that extra offensive depth could push them over the proverbial hump; at least, that’s the plan.

Is that truly fixing things though?  Not really but they’ve made this commitment and it’s a hard one to get out of.  If Auston Matthews decides to walk in free agency in 2024, that would be the next opportunity to dramatically change the shape and structure of the roster.  Until then, they either stick with their current direction or move a winger to give themselves a bit of wiggle room to fill other areas of the roster.  If I had to guess right now, I’d lean towards sticking with the current plan so I’d put the odds of moving a winger at 45% or close to a coin flip.  The next few months will be interesting on that front.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the slow starts in Seattle and Vegas, Vladimir Tarasenko’s hot start in St. Louis, Chicago’s struggles, Cam Atkinson’s return to form, and Arizona’s goaltending situation.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

trak2k: Is it worrying that the Kraken have the lowest amount of shots per game and also not really anyone on offense who can score?

Also. do teams who do well at the beginning of the season do well at the end of the season?

An uptick in shots now has Seattle out of the basement in that regard but it isn’t really cause for concern that the volume isn’t there.  The bigger issue is the second half of your first question in that they don’t have a lot of firepower.  This isn’t a team built to do a whole lot at the offensive end as GM Ron Francis opted to pass on some more prominent offensive players in expansion and only added some secondary pieces in free agency with an eye on longer-term flexibility.

It’s important to hammer home that they’re an expansion team.  They’re supposed to struggle.  What Vegas did when they entered the league is by far the exception to what first-year teams are supposed to do and it unfairly raised the bar for the Kraken in the process.  They’re supposed to be a middling team and with seven points out of their first eight games, they’re basically doing what most expansion teams do.

It’s not a given that teams that start strong will also finish strong.  The good teams are generally good throughout but there is usually a team or two that gets off to a hot start and fades as the year goes on and vice versa.  If you’re hoping that Seattle goes from a slow start to a good finish though, I don’t think this is the year for that to happen.

DirtbagBlues: Too early to panic in Vegas?

DirtbagBlues: Would Vegas really trade Theodore (as is being rumored since the Whitecloud and Hutton signings)? What else would they need to add to nab Eichel?

Speaking of that other recent expansion team…  I’m not pushing the panic button right now.  I know the statement “no excuses” tends to be applied but Max Pacioretty, Mark Stone, and Alex Tuch are a big part of their offense and they’re all on the shelf plus there have been a litany of minor issues that have kept players out as well.  When a team is icing a lineup with a combined payroll below the cap minimum some nights, they’re bound to struggle.  If they were all healthy and they were still struggling, then I’d be a bit more concerned.

As for Shea Theodore’s inclusion in a Jack Eichel trade, I think they would do that.  First, I think the expectation of what Eichel will get in a return has swung far too much the other way; the Sabres aren’t moving him for pennies on the dollar.  The pressure point is next offseason when his trade protection comes in, not now.  If he sits the season, I don’t think they’re all that concerned; it’s not as if they’re actively trying to make the playoffs anyway.

Back to Theodore, then.  Vegas has to match money for this to work on the cap (the LTIR only helps this season, not in the other four years of Eichel’s deal) so someone with a hefty price tag has to go the other way.  Theodore at $5.2MM is a start on that front.  But he’s young enough to be viewed as a longer-term piece for Buffalo and is signed through 2024-25 which is big for them.  He can be the centerpiece of a return as a result.  From the Golden Knights’ perspective, they have Alex Pietrangelo, Alec Martinez, and Zach Whitecloud signed through at least 2023-24 and Nicolas Hague under control through 2026.  That’s a good foundation on the back end even without Theodore.

As for what else, someone like Jonathan Marchessault, Reilly Smith, or Evgenii Dadonov would make the money work looking ahead to later in the year if Eichel is able to return for the stretch run and playoffs (LTIR shields them until that time).  I’d lean towards Marchessault solely because he has the longest term remaining which makes the money situation easier to navigate.  Buffalo is open to conditions on other pieces so there’s bound to be a conditional first-rounder in there plus probably a lower pick tied to that one.  I could also see someone like Jack Dugan involved, a prospect whose stock has dipped a bit but still carries some potential value to Buffalo.

Johnny Z: Does Tarasenko still get traded? Does he push it or settles in with the Blues?

I’ve never really thought Tarasenko was getting traded in the first place.  Sure, he may want out but with contracts like these, there’s a very fine line to navigate.  At $7.5MM for this season and next, teams aren’t going to want him if he’s not producing and how he finished last year basically cratered any possible value he may have.  On the other hand, he’s an important enough piece for the Blues that they weren’t going to give him away.

Now he’s off to a nice start to his 2021-22 campaign with four goals and four assists in six games.  His value has certainly gone up but where’s the motivation for St. Louis to trade him?  If you have a player producing at a top-line level, you keep him.  Winning and success can get rid of a lot of bad blood.  Will that be the case here?  I don’t know but considering that it’s often easier to try to swap big contracts in the offseason, that might be the time for something to happen on the trade front but not now.  At that point, teams will have a better idea if Tarasenko is truly back to his old form while there will also be the element of being able to discuss and potentially sign an extension which isn’t an option if he’s moved now.

Nha Trang: Has Marc-Andre Fleury just gotten old, or does the Chicago defense really suck THAT badly?

Why can’t it be both?  Fleury is 36 and there is some volatility in starting goalies as they get older.  Fleury didn’t hide the fact he didn’t want to be traded in the first place and while I’m not accusing him of merely going through the motions by any stretch, going from somewhere you loved to somewhere you don’t want to be certainly doesn’t help things.

As for Chicago’s back end, they’ve struggled quite a bit as well.  Frankly, they’ve surprised me with how poorly they’ve played as on paper, that’s at least a decent group.  Seth Jones has struggled mightily, Jake McCabe hasn’t quite settled in yet, and returning veterans Connor Murphy and Calvin de Haan have underwhelmed as well.

It’s also worth mentioning that in Fleury’s case, it’s four games.  That’s a pretty small sample size.  He isn’t going to be that bad all season long; I expect he’ll turn it around.  Generally speaking, I expect Chicago will find their footing eventually; there’s too much talent on that team to be this bad all season long.  When that happens, Fleury will go back to being a decent starter and that’s all they really wanted when they added him from Vegas.

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