PHR Mailbag: Trade Market, Johansen, Canadiens, Offseason Moves, Palat, Centers, Red Wings, McKenna

Topics in this edition of the mailbag include good and bad moves from this summer’s spending spree, possible contenders for the Gavin McKenna sweepstakes, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in our last two mailbag columns.

RPIsFinest: Teams like the Leafs and Rangers seemed pretty open about the need for big changes this summer. Is this what they had in mind? Or are bigger moves coming? Or has the fact that a lot of the top UFAs opted to stay put hampered their plans?

Now that the FA market has come and gone, do we see teams making some big trades to revamp their rosters or stand pat?

I think the lack of impact talent to actually reach the open market really limited some planning.  I suspect Toronto might have preferred to add a top-six piece to replace Mitch Marner but flipped to adding better depth to their roster which I suspect was their Plan B all along.  For the Rangers, they moved out two key pieces in Chris Kreider and K’Andre Miller while adding Vladislav Gavrikov.  Coupled with some of the trades from last season including bringing in J.T. Miller, I think they’ve done the bulk of their big changes.  In general though, I suspect more teams had bigger things in mind than they were able to do.

I’ve seen speculation saying that the trade market is going to be more robust than normal in the next few weeks and some saying that the bigger moves might come in-season but earlier than the market typically heats up.  I agree more with the latter.  We’re at the point of summer where the big player-for-player swap usually doesn’t happen as teams tend to lean more toward keeping the one that they’re familiar with.  But if things don’t get off to a great start 20 games in or so, they might be more inclined to try the shakeup.

Da Hammerer: What has come of the situation between the Flyers and Ryan Johansen? A friend implied he read an article or tweet the grievance was squashed, but I’ve been unsuccessful in finding anything beyond the announcement of the grievance hearing that was scheduled. Of all the articles I’ve read about their cap and dead cap hits, none mentioned any impact from Johansen’s contract situation.

There’s not much out there about this situation.  They’ve gone ahead and held the hearing but the results were never revealed.  Whether that means there was a settlement reached or the outcome is still pending remains to be seen.  I suspect there’s a good chance we won’t hear about it either.

As for the cap implications, let’s start with the easy one first.  Nashville also received cap relief from the Johansen contract termination but they operated so far below the salary cap all season long that even if the cap hit got retroactively reapplied, they’d still be under last year’s $88MM ceiling.  So, for the Predators, they’re fine.

The Flyers are a little harder to pin down given that some of the daily tracking is done behind paywalls so I don’t have a precise end-of-season number for them.  And what is available has a bit of variance.  CapWages had their finishing space at $8.99MM but that included the LTIR pool for Ryan Ellis ($6.25MM); back that out and they’re at $2.74MM.  PuckPedia had them around $2.65M in mid-March so there’s a rough range to work with.  But Matvei Michkov’s $1MM in earned ‘A’ bonuses need to be deducted from that pool.  Accordingly, if Johansen’s cap charge was retroactively applied to last season, there would be around a $2.4MM overage or so applied to the upcoming season.  That would push the Flyers into using LTIR as things stand, meaning that any earned bonuses in 2025-26 would then hit the cap in 2026-27.  So, there’s some murkiness about their situation but given how quiet things have been in this case, I don’t expect it will come to that.

KS Habs: Any further moves by Kent Hughes and the Canadiens? I know they have looked into a 2nd Line wing or center but there is not a lot on the market. Is there a chance Rossi, McTavish head back to the Habs or do they like try with Kirby Dach at center again? A second question is what do you think a Lane Hutson contract extension would look like? 8 x $10? Thanks!

By all accounts, the Canadiens don’t appear to be seriously pursuing Marco Rossi at this time which, given their need and desire to upgrade down the middle, is a little telling.  As for Mason McTavish, I’m sure they’re interested in him but I’m not sure why Anaheim would look into moving him.  The absence of a contract for him isn’t really an indication that he’s available, it’s just what happens with a lot of younger talents coming off entry-level deals without arbitration rights; these situations can often drag on.  But if he were to become available, I’m sure Montreal would make a serious push.  But at this point, I expect they will head to training camp with the centers they have which means Dach getting another look down the middle.

As for Hutson, I took a look at some comparables for him a couple of months back and not much has changed since then with only one more to add to that range, his new teammate.  Your proposal falls within the range of those comparable players and in this marketplace with the salary cap set to jump a couple more times, it’s not crazy even though it’s a sky-high number for someone who has all of one season under his belt.  But I don’t think Montreal would make that offer right now.  When they just gave Noah Dobson, a player with a 70-point season under his belt and a longer track record, $9.5MM per season for eight years, it feels like they wouldn’t go higher for that on Hutson.  It’s notable that only two seasons of Dobson’s deal were UFA years while Hutson has five in his.  So, right now, I think their internal cap for a Hutson contract comes in below that.

Schwa: When we look back in a couple of years, who will we look at as being the best/worst deals (for signings and/or trades)?

You haven’t specified which period to cover for these signings and trades so I’m going to operate as if you’re asking about the recent dealings and contracts from this offseason.

For the best moves, I have some that might be surprising.  Giving Jake Allen five years when he’s about to turn 35 is crazy in theory but they got him so far below market value (he likely would have landed more than double his $1.8MM AAV) on the open market that the risk is mitigated.  Yes, there’s a chance that he might have to be waived and buried in the minors by the end (at which point, the dead cap charge would be less than $500K) but there’s so much surplus value in the first few years that it should work out well.  I also liked the Aaron Ekblad contract with Florida.  Again, it might be problematic at the end but he’s still a solid number two option and should be for several more years and that’s a price that’s well below current market value.  He left a good chunk of money on the table to stay with the Panthers.  As for a trade, I’ll pick Matias Maccelli to Toronto for a conditional third-round pick.  If he goes back to being a legitimate top-six piece as he was in the final year in Arizona, that’s a small price to pay (even if it’s elevated to a second rounder) for a top-six piece with some team control.

On the flip side, I have another Florida contract on the worst list, that being Brad Marchand’s six-year deal worth $5.25MM per season.  If he’s a top-six player, $5.25MM is fine.  But he wasn’t a top-six player with the Panthers and that isn’t going to change unless injuries arise.  So now, you have a high-priced third-liner signed until he’s 43.  I get trying to keep the band together but that could be a problem contract early and often.  The other one that comes to mind covers a signing and trade, that being Nashville sending Jeremy Lauzon and Colton Sissons (with 50% salary retention) to Vegas for Nicolas Hague.  From a value perspective, that wasn’t a great deal for the Predators on its face but add in four years at $5.5MM to a player who has largely been on the third pairing and it goes from bad to worse.  I think Hague is a useful defender but to overpay in cost and contract on a team that doesn’t seem particularly close to a playoff spot seemed largely unnecessary.

DevilShark: Would the Sharks (or Hawks) do a solid to the Devils and pick up Palat like they did with Goodrow? Depth wing, good mentor. They still have issues with the cap floor too… I’m surprised a solution hasn’t materialized here for NJD.

There are a few things that make an Ondrej Palat trade to those teams less likely.  The first is the two years remaining on his contract.  Both San Jose and Chicago have taken on more than a one-year deal but I don’t think it’s something they want to do a lot of.  Also, both teams are already comfortably above the cap ceiling for next season so that’s not a factor as well.

The second is Palat’s 10-team no-trade clause.  It’s quite possible (if not probable) that he has those two teams and some other lower teams in the standings on his list to prevent the type of trade you’re hoping for from actually happening.  Most top teams won’t accept a multi-year cap dump so stack the no-trade list with the teams at the bottom of the standings and he should be protected.  And if you’re thinking about merely waiving him as the Rangers did with Barclay Goodrow, his no-move protection is basically a no-waivers clause so that’s not on the table.

The third is the money.  Goodrow carries a $3.64MM cap charge.  Andre Burakovsky is at $5.5MM for two years but Chicago got to offload the final year of Joe Veleno’s contract which has to be factored in.  Palat’s older than both of them and at $6MM, he costs more too.  That also means he’ll cost more to be offloaded as in New Jersey will need to attach an asset or burn a retention slot to move him, something they probably don’t want to do.  I’m not shocked a move hasn’t materialized for the Devils as this is a harder sell given the cost of the contract.

SkidRowe: Could you please compare and contrast Connor Bedard and James Hagens?

I can try but as I’ve noted before, scouting is not necessarily my strong suit.

Offensively, both are strong skaters but their main skill is different.  For Bedard, he’s an elite shooter and while he’s not a bad playmaker by any stretch (over time, with better linemates, I think we’ll see that part of his game improve), his shot is his high-end threat.  With Hagens, his passing is his standout skill.  If you’re looking for the more cerebral player, it’s Hagens with Bedard being the bigger game-breaker.

Defensively, it’s a little harder to compare, largely because Bedard hasn’t been in a spot to evaluate that.  In junior, he was the go-to player who had the green light to cheat a bit defensively while in the NHL, he’s basically had that same role with Chicago more focused on lottery odds than winning games.  Over time as they get more competitive, it’ll be interesting to see how that side of his game evolves.  With Hagens, while he’s more of an offense-first player (most top forward prospects are), he has adapted well enough to the college game at that end and showed improvement with his defensive reads. He might not be a true two-way threat but Hagens showed that he shouldn’t be a big liability at that end of the ice.

The other element to compare is positional.  Bedard is undersized for a center and while he has been force-fed big minutes down the middle early in his career, the early returns of handling the position haven’t been great.  Again, part of that is the sink-or-swim approach and a bad surrounding cast but there’s a case to be made that he might be better off on the wing.  Hagens is similarly undersized but profiles better as a center with his more cerebral game and at least some defensive conscientiousness.  He should stay at that position long-term while the more I see Bedard, the more I think the wing may make more sense for him.

The Duke: Lightning Round II – Is there a race with Brossoit or is Knight the clear-cut starter? Who are Anaheim’s opening night Top-6? Is Rossi re-signed or moved out? And, is it Perfetti’s time to shine now that Ehlers is gone?

1) I’m honestly not sure Laurent Brossoit is on the NHL roster next season let alone battling Spencer Knight for playing time.  I expect Arvid Soderblom to be the backup and Brossoit at least starting out in Rockford to show he’s back in good form.  At that point, he might be movable with salary retention.  Knight is their starter for the long haul.

2) I think McTavish stays so you have him and Leo Carlsson down the middle.  I expect newcomer Mikael Granlund to end up on the wing while Chris Kreider will be in the top six as well.  Troy Terry should stay there while Cutter Gauthier showed enough down the stretch to also stay in the top-six.

3) Rossi’s case is going to take a while but I think he’s ultimately going to bite the bullet on a bridge deal.  The external interest doesn’t seem to be as strong as he was hoping for, meaning Minnesota isn’t going to get the type of return they want to move him.

4) That would be safe to say.  Jonathan Toews could be a good addition and Gustav Nyquist is serviceable but they don’t have the offensive upside to take on Nikolaj Ehlers’ share of the attack.  Cole Perfetti might not get there but they’re definitely counting on him having another gear to get to offensively.

rule78.1: The Red Wings had a couple of major issues last season. Their ability to score 5-on-5 and their penalty kill.  Do you see any improvement in these areas up to this point for this coming season after their signings?

Let’s look at the offensive moves.  They gave up Vladimir Tarasenko and added James van Riemsdyk and Mason Appleton.  On paper, that’s not a lot better although van Riemsdyk was much better than usual at five-on-five last season.  But generally, he’s more of a power play specialist (nearly 43% of his goals from 2020-21 through 2023-24 were on the man advantage) so I think the even strength production might drop.  At best, I think it’s a wash beyond hoping for some internal improvement and bounce backs.

Before digging into the second question, let’s review the defensive moves.  John Gibson is now the starting goalie and as a team that needed to make some defensive changes, they added Jacob Bernard-Docker to replace Jeff Petry.  I like the Bernard-Docker contract but that’s not a needle-mover.

But Gibson gives them a shot at improving shorthanded.  If we look at Goals Saved Above Expected (per MoneyPuck) at four-on-five, Cam Talbot was one of the worst goalies in the league at -7.1.  Alex Lyon was at -2.3 and Petr Mrazek was in that range, also including his time with Chicago.  Gibson was still in the negative but at -0.5 which is at least closer to average.  All else being equal (and given the skater group, it largely is), even average goaltending on the penalty kill will be an improvement.  Appleton has killed penalties in the past as well so he could help.  They’ve improved a bit here but it still could be one of the weaker units overall.

DevilShark: Where is McKenna getting drafted? Bottom few teams this year on paper?

I think Chicago has to be on this list.  A full season from Knight raises the floor and I feel Jeff Blashill will make them more competitive on a night-in, night-out basis.  But they’re a team that just wasn’t any good last year and while they have money to do so, they didn’t do much to add to their roster unless you think Burakovsky is in line to be a difference-maker.  It’s all part of the process but that process is going to involve another year of pain.

I’m tempted to put San Jose here as well.  They’ve been more active in terms of adding floor-raising veterans but their goaltending is a big question mark.  I like Yaroslav Askarov but is he going to be a difference-maker right away like Dustin Wolf was in Calgary or will there be the more typical ups and downs?  And with an up-and-down goalie like Alex Nedeljkovic as the backup, it’s a question mark.  I could see them in the bottom three with poor goaltending or closer to the back of the bottom ten if Askarov pans out.

As things stand today, Pittsburgh would be a tough one to pick here but I don’t think they’re done subtracting from their roster just yet.  It seems like GM Kyle Dubas finally has the green light to take a step or two back so I think at some point, another move or two is made that sees them move an impactful win-now piece for some future assets.  That might be enough to sneak them to the bottom of the East and sneak into the Gavin McKenna sweepstakes.

Photo courtesy of Timothy T. Ludwig-Imagn Images.