PHR Mailbag: Avalanche, Devils, Marner, Canadiens, Flyers, Offseason

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include an assessment of the Avalanche, several questions about the Canadiens, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s column while we have one more coming from our most recent call for questions.

Pearlo: Do we have a Colorado team spiraling towards a rebuild? No draft picks in first three rounds of the next draft, a very poor prospect pool, a very inconsistent Necas and a questionably effective Landeskog with no second line capable center in their top six as well as a fair top off after Girard with their defense with only $8MM in cap space to fill holes. Seems to me they are skating on pretty thin ice. What say you?

It’s safe to say you’re not in the glass-full camp.  There will come a time when the Avs need to flip the switch and think about the future.  I don’t think they’re there yet.  After all, they weren’t that far off getting through Dallas in the opening round in a matchup that wouldn’t have happened had it not been for a playoff format that is starting to lose its luster, no matter what the league wants to say.

This is a team that still has one of the top forwards in the league in Nathan MacKinnon.  They have one of the top blueliners in Cale Makar.  Those are two premier building blocks signed for at least the next two years; Makar will need a new contract in 2027 (and, barring injury, that will undoubtedly be setting a new NHL record for defensemen at that time).  When you have those pieces in place, it’s hard to say it’s time to take a step back even though your correct assessment of their pick and prospect cupboard suggests it’s an option that should be considered.

I expect Martin Necas will be better next season.  He’s going to have a lot to play for and a full training camp should help after being brought in midseason.  He won’t produce at the same level as Mikko Rantanen but I think he can produce like a top-liner.  On defense, I wouldn’t be surprised if GM Chris MacFarland looks into moving one of Samuel Girard or Josh Manson which could allow the back end to be reshaped a bit and add some cap space potentially.

A lot is going to hinge on if they can address the second center spot.  Whether that’s re-signing Brock Nelson, finding someone externally, or even giving Necas an extended look there, filling that position would really solidify them having two strong scoring lines.  Even with all the question marks (and I’d put goaltending in there as well), that should be more than enough for them to safely be a playoff team.  There will come a time to rebuild.  I don’t think that’s coming for a while yet though.

SpeakofTheDevils: What does a Devils dream offseason look like? Trades? Free Agency? Etc.

First, getting Luke Hughes signed to a long-term deal.  I know the bridge pact would make things a lot easier for GM Tom Fitzgerald in terms of utilizing cap space but if the team feels he’s the high-end defender it looks like he can be, that’s someone you sign now before it gets a whole lot more expensive after a bridge deal.

I wrestled with putting this in their Offseason Checklist earlier this week but finding a way to offload at least most of Ondrej Palat’s contract would go a long way toward giving them some cap space.  I think they’re at a spot where trading with 50% retention is preferable to a buyout but the latter shouldn’t be ruled out.  Palat’s a serviceable player but that’s one spot they can upgrade.

They need to improve on their third center after a tough year from Erik Haula.  They were believed to be looking for that leading into the trade deadline but they might be able to get that in free agency.  They also could use a fourth-line pivot.

Adding a top-six winger would also be a big help.  For them to barely crack the top 20 in goals scored with the roster they have is a problem.  They’re better than that and a key addition should put them back in the top half.  In an ideal world, they land one of the better wingers available.

On defense, I don’t want to say they have an embarrassment of riches but they have a lot of depth and two promising youngsters in the pipeline in Simon Nemec and Seamus Casey.  Can one of those – maybe Jonas Siegenthaler – be packaged with someone like Haula to add a $6MM or so piece to further add on the wing?

And while we’re at it, a veteran goalie that’s a bit more reliable than Nico Daws would be nice too.

I’m sure you were hoping for some names but with how long that list is and their cap situation (barely $12MM in space per PuckPedia), they’re not going to get to all of those without some other moves being made first and I’d simply be guessing on those which doesn’t add much value to the discussion.  Realistically, if they got half or more of these done, it would be a solid offseason.  The dream one might have to wait at least one more year.

Unclemike1526: Since my other question basically was answered, would you please tell me if you’ve ever read anywhere that Mitch Marner won’t play for a rebuilding club?

If it makes you feel any better, the only assistant coach in Chicago I’d have predicted correctly was Anders Sorensen.  Keeping him around would be a good reward for coming up and struggling through the rest of this season so I felt confident about that.  I’d have been hypothesizing Jeff Blashill going after some assistants he had with Detroit had that situation not largely been finalized by last weekend.

As for Marner, I’ve not seen anything credible that says he wouldn’t play for a rebuilding club.  At this point, it feels like his intention is going to be that he’s going to go to the open market and see what’s out there.  If you’re taking that approach, you’re probably not going to rule out a bunch of options off the bat by saying he won’t go to a rebuilding club.

What is Marner’s priority?  Is it to go to a contender?  Not a lot of those have the type of money that he’ll be commanding.  Beyond re-signing with Toronto, Carolina would and, well, that’s about it.  Vegas is being suggested as a speculative link but that would require a lot of money being moved out first although their penchant for big swings means it can’t be ruled out.

But if his priority is top dollar, it might come from a non-contender.  Chicago should be aiming higher this summer.  Utah has an owner willing to spend, a team on the rise, and a lot of cap space.  Anaheim has a promising young core and the purse strings have been loosened a bit.  Columbus nearly made the playoffs with their group and might want to swing big as well.  There’s a compelling case to be made for any of those teams.

In a perfect world, Marner, or any other top free agent really, would get his cake and eat it too by finding a legitimate contender that has a lot of cap space.  He’ll have to figure out what level of importance to place on either of those options.  He has another month to do so before anything probably truly gets ruled out.

frozenaquatic: The NHL has about 10 Kershaws through history. Marner, Matthews, Panarin, Hellebuyck now. Historically, Yashin, Rick Nash, Todd Bertuzzi, Joe Thornton — even Marcel Dionne — were known to disappear come May. Stammer was accused of being a regular-season merchant for a while, but busted the reputation during the Covid Cup Dynasty. What do you think it takes to coach a guy to play with more intensity, take hits, block shots, not make east-west passes, go to the net, and find shooting lanes — to do the things necessary to play good playoff hockey? Who would even want Marner at $12 – 14 million if he has this reputation?

I don’t think there’s a coach out there who’s going to drastically change Marner’s style of play.  Over 700 games into his career (regular season and playoffs), he is who he is at this point.  If there wasn’t a material change under a coach with a tougher reputation in Craig Berube, I don’t think there’s necessarily a coach out there who is going to make him change the way he plays to do the things you listed on a full-time basis.

But what Marner is at this stage of his career is still a really good player.  He’s a premier playmaker, is pretty consistent offensively year-to-year, and his defensive game often goes under the radar.  There’s a reason he’s being projected to sign a record-breaking contract and that’s because of all of the positives he brings to the table.  The playoff performance doesn’t help his cause but it doesn’t materially cripple his value either.

As for who would want him?  The list of who wouldn’t is probably longer than the list of who would.  I expect any team that has that much money to at least kick the tires with probably six to eight teams making him their top target.  Players of his skill level are rarely available ‘for free’ on the open market.  His playoff reputation won’t be scaring many teams off.  Those teams’ coaches will be saying that they can make it work with Marner being exactly who he is.

Jaysen: Let’s say every player is available. What are your top 3 targets for 2C position if you are Kent Hughes? And what do you think is the value of Logan Mailloux in a trade? Not really overly impressed with him but I do know that defensemen take longer to develop.

Finally, Fowler seems like the real deal. I expect Dobes to back up Montembeault this year but next year? If Fowler develops the way he is supposed to, what do you do? Trade Dobes? Or do you go for the big decision and trade Montembeault do let Dobes and Fowler tend the twine??

The qualifier that everyone is available makes this a little unrealistic but I’ll play along and give you a couple more than three.  Anaheim’s Mason McTavish fits the age of Montreal’s core group and feels like someone they’d acquire and then sign long-term.  I don’t see the Ducks moving him though.  I’d throw Quinton Byfield (Los Angeles) and Matty Beniers (Seattle) in there as well but again, I don’t see them being available.  Maybe Barrett Hayton in Utah if they wound up taking a big swing at adding a center in free agency but that’s from a guarantee.  If Florida re-signs Sam Bennett and Aaron Ekblad and makes Anton Lundell available, he’d be on the list too but that’s three ifs.  The key elements are they’re young, have upside, and several years of team control or contract remaining.  But there’s a reason they’re so hard to come by.

Mailloux is a hard player to evaluate.  He’s still very raw and underdeveloped after his OHL career consisted of just 75 games or barely a single season so he’s behind on the development curve, so to speak.  Offensively, he can probably play at the NHL level now.  Defensively, he has shown flashes of being NHL-level there but at other times, he has struggled.  That’s not uncommon for young blueliners as you note but that type of inconsistency will give some teams pause.

As a young, right-shot blueliner with enough raw skills to play in the top four, there’s a lot to like.  But with how things have gone to this point, there will be some who shy away or come in low with offers knowing there’s some risk in acquiring him.  Other teams will probably feel that their coaches can get those fundamentals in place more frequently, making him a top-four option.  His trade value revolves around how he’s perceived.  If it’s a team that is hesitant, they’re probably going no higher than a second-round pick.  If it’s the latter category, a first-round value isn’t off the table.  I don’t think Mailloux is the centerpiece of a big trade this summer but if they find a team that believes in the upside, he could be a key component of one.

Goalie coaches have said in the past that they generally want a goalie to get at least 100 starts in the AHL.  I’ve seen some say 150.  Jacob Fowler is at all of eight at the moment.  Accordingly, I don’t think he’s even in the equation for full-time NHL duty for at least two more years at which time Sam Montembeault’s deal is up.  To be honest, I’m not even fully certain that Jakub Dobes is the full-time backup in Montreal next season as he’s only at 65 AHL games.  I could see Montreal signing a veteran third-stringer and then calling that goalie up periodically to give Dobes some games in Laval and a higher workload than he’d get as the permanent backup in Montreal.  If all goes well, they’ll have to make room for Fowler eventually but they’re probably not giving that serious thought for another 24 months or so.

Emoney123: It appears the Flyers will have some cap room heading into next season… is there enough to make some progress in the rebuild? What impact might Tocchet have on recruiting free agents, motivating players, style of play, and winning?

Let’s look at that cap room first.  Following the recent bridge deal given to Tyson Foerster, they have a little under $23MM in space, per PuckPedia.  New contracts for Cameron York and Noah Cates will cut into that by anywhere from $8MM to $12MM depending on whether York gets a long-term pact.  So they have some wiggle room to work with for sure.

As for making progress, it depends on what you mean by the term.  Is that money going to allow them to get another young core player or two?  Probably not; those players aren’t available in free agency and spending prospect capital to trade for them not doesn’t make a ton of sense unless they’re paying a below-market cost.  That’s one way to progress in a rebuild.  But if you mean progress in the sense of adding some veteran pieces to make the team more competitive and at least be more in the mix for a playoff spot, sure, there’s enough cap space for them to do that.

I don’t see Rick Tocchet helping to attract free agents, at least not yet.  Rarely do you hear players talk about wanting to play for a specific coach or program.  He’s not a big recruitment tool in that sense.  What would be a recruitment tool is the team playing more competitively with him behind the bench and showing that they’re heading in the right direction.  Given how things went off the rail last year, I think Tocchet can certainly help in that regard and get them winning more games but I don’t think it’ll be a quick fix.  If the team is more competitive, they’ll be more motivated.  I know that’s a simplistic answer but I think the idea of a coach giving passionate speeches to motivate the team is largely overblown.

Schwa: Who do you see having the most successful and most disappointing offseasons from the following groups – contenders, rebuilding (near the bottom), and teams somewhere in between (I know the latter is broad, if you want to segment into teams trending positively/negatively). Thanks!

Contenders: If we’re using the playoffs as a barometer, I’d put Carolina as one that I expect will have a strong offseason.  They’re in the mix every year and while they’re a small-market team, there will be players who want to wind that will find that appealing.  They’ll also find the smorgasbord of cap space quite appealing.  On the flip side, I think it’s going to be a tough summer for Dallas.  This was their one big swing.  They have less than $5MM in cap space per PuckPedia with their list of UFAs including (but not limited to) Matt Duchene, Mikael Granlund, Jamie Benn, and Cody Ceci.  That’s a lot of talent that’s about to head out the door.

Rebuilders: Can I put Utah in this category?  They’re on the way up in their rebuild but still haven’t made the playoffs so I think I can get away with putting them here.  Their young core group is getting better and for the second straight year, I expect them to make a big splash and add another key piece or two to the group.  They’re on the way up and this offseason will help propel them more in that direction.  As for one that might have a disappointing summer, I’m going to pick the Sharks.  They’re going to have the money to try to make some moves to push them out of the cellar and at least start looking upward but something tells me there’s going to be one more year of struggling at this level before GM Mike Grier pivots to the next stage.

In Betweeners: Let’s go with Minnesota for having a successful summer.  They’ve been waiting for this for a while now and now that they have the cap space and a GM who is known to be aggressive, I expect there to be a talent influx.  As for a disappointing summer, I’m going to put Seattle here.  They probably should be rebuilding (and I thought the GM change might allow them to do so) but their coaching hire suggests they’re looking to try to get back to the playoffs instead of taking a step back to take two forward.  They’ll have enough to sign a piece or two after keeping their RFAs but they’re not a piece or two away from being a playoff threat barring a bunch of players turning things around next season.  If they take that approach, that would be a disappointment in my book.

Photo courtesy of Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images.