PHR Mailbag

It has been a busy last month or so around the hockey world.  The 4 Nations Face-Off came and went with plenty of success while the trade deadline featured several swaps of note with some teams willing to significantly shake up their rosters.  Now, the stretch run is upon us with several close battles shaping up for a playoff spot.

With all that in mind, it’s a good time to open up the mailbag once again.  Our last call for questions yielded enough for three separate columns.  The first focused primarily on the 4 Nations tournament as well as Kevyn Adams’ future as the GM in Buffalo.  Among the topics in the second were offer sheets and plenty of trade deadline talk.  Meanwhile, the third included a discussion on Chicago’s goaltending situation (which has since been simplified a bit), the old Tagging Rule, and more.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter/X or by leaving a comment down below. The mailbag will run on the weekend.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include what, if anything, is next for the Wild on the trade front, Chicago’s tough season, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in our last two columns.

nolesfan75: Do players like Matthew Phillips and Kailer Yamamoto have any realistic chance of getting another opportunity in the NHL? They both are having strong years at their respective AHL clubs.

It’s unfortunate but it’s hard for smaller offensive players to get any sort of significant opportunity in the NHL once they get labeled as more of a minor leaguer.  You’re definitely correct in stating that Phillips and Yamamoto are having strong seasons in the minors but the problem they run into is this.  They’re good enough to be impactful players in the AHL but not good enough to be a top-six piece consistently in the NHL.  Meanwhile, they’re often viewed as too small to play regular minutes in the bottom six for an NHL team.  So, where does that leave them?  Basically, they have to hope for a short-term injury to an offensive forward to have an opportunity for a short-term recall and if things go well from there, maybe stick around for a bit.

To make things even harder for them, there might be an NHL team or two who would be willing to give someone like that a chance after the trade deadline to avoid needing to recall someone from their farm team (helping in a playoff push down there).  But because Phillips and Yamamoto are big producers in the minors, their respective NHL teams are unlikely to just give them away and weaken their farm team to do right by the player.  It’s a tough cycle to get out of which is why these players often move around in free agency each summer, trying to find a new opportunity that gives them a better chance at an NHL look at some point.

letsgonats: Related, do teams target AHL players? Folks like Phillips or Ethan Bear that are all stars at AHL but they are not 21-year-olds but 25–28-year-olds with some NHL experience and can serve as depth. Ethen Frank is “old” at 28 but obviously was buried and stuck in AHL. Do teams try to grab AHL folks and give them the job over existing NHL folks?

There is an annual shuffle of top AHL players that I think at least partially qualifies as a yes to this question.  But it’s not necessarily with the idea of having that player displace an NHL regular although they typically promise that the player will get that opportunity at least in training camp.  That’s the biggest driver of top AHL players in free agency, just trying to upgrade the AHL teams.

The next level of targets for teams looking at AHL players are young players coming off an AHL contract that a team wants to sign to an NHL deal.  Since you’re a Washington fan, I’ll give you a Capitals-specific example, Pierrick Dube.  He had a strong first pro year on a minor league deal and that was enough for Washington to have to give him an entry-level contract to secure his NHL rights.  There are usually a handful of those moves each summer league-wide.

There aren’t many comparisons to Frank out there.  Waivers allow players in his situation to be snapped up if there’s an NHL team that thinks an AHL regular is worthy of a look at the top level and usually, if they’re that confident about that player’s ability to be an NHL regular, they’ll typically try to acquire the player in a small trade beforehand.  So while there are some AHL players who are targeted for various reasons, it’s not too often that they’re being looked at as pieces to join an NHL roster full time.

Zakis: What, if anything, will the Wild do? Or be able to do?

I was really hoping that I could get away with pushing this question into this column as I figured that Minnesota would wait until closer to the trade deadline when they might have more clarity on the status of injured forwards Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek.  Oh well.

Realistically, my logic still holds true today though.  If one of them can’t return before the end of the regular season, the Wild will have the ability to spend several million to try to add another upgrade or two before Friday’s trade deadline.  But if not, they’ll be in a spot where they need to cut down to close to the minimum-size roster to get back to cap compliance.  At that point, they’re in a money-in, money-out situation which greatly affects what they’ll be able to do.

I don’t think they’re quite done yet up front beyond the Gustav Nyquist acquisition but that will probably be their biggest move of this stretch.  With the struggles of their penalty kill, I suspect they’ll have their eye out for a fourth liner who can kill penalties.  In a perfect world, that player would be a center but any shorthanded upgrade would be a welcome one.

It’s worth noting that Minnesota doesn’t have a first-round pick or a third-round selection this year, nor do they have second-rounders in 2026 and 2027 so their trade chips are somewhat limited here, assuming their top youngsters are off the table.  But a mid-round pick for a checker making $1MM or less is something I still expect them to do regardless of what happens with Kaprizov and Eriksson Ek.  Anything else will be dependent on one of them being out for the rest of the regular season.

Unclemike1526: When Brossoit makes it back to the Hawks, Soderblom will have played too many games to be sent down without passing through waivers. IMO, no player is more improved in the NHL this year than Soderblom. Last year whenever the other team crossed the red line, Soderblom would drop on his knees and wait for the other team to just shoot it over his shoulders. Now that he actually stays on his feet the change has been remarkable.

So, faced with having to keep three Goalies, is there any chance they can move Mrazek when he has next year remaining at $4 million bucks? Would a team need a G bad enough to take that on? Brossoit has no value having been hurt all year and Soderblom might be a keeper. One has to go IMO or we’ll have the same problem again next year as they’ll all have contracts. Thanks again.

I’m glad I got the Seth Jones question out of the way last week and as it turns out, that trade makes this question that much more important.  With Spencer Knight now in the fold, Chicago has four netminders under contract for this season.  Three are signed already for next year and Arvid Soderblom has done more than well enough to earn a contract for 2025-26 as well.  For this year, I’m skeptical that Laurent Brossoit is going to return and they can just run with three goalies for the final seven weeks of this season so it’s not necessarily a problem just yet.

Petr Mrazek has a $4.25MM cap charge for next year which is on the high side but he’s also going to be on an expiring contract.  I think it’s possible that there will be a team or two who doesn’t like the idea of signing a UFA to a multi-year deal but could afford an overpay on a short-term contract.  If those are out there, then yes, I think Chicago can move him.  And with two retention slots opening up on July 1st, the Blackhawks could use one to pay down part of that contract and actually get a bit of value in return (likely a mid-round draft pick).  If it doesn’t happen, he’s probably on waivers and in the minors in October.

Assuming that Chicago intends to give Knight a long look, I suspect their ideal tandem for next year is him and Soderblom.  Brossoit coming off an injury-riddled year has minimal value so he’d either be the third-string option or on waivers and in the minors himself assuming he’s healthy by training camp.  If he and Mrazek were both in the AHL, I expect one would then be loaned to another team with the other partnering with Drew Commesso in Rockford.  There’s a way to get through this with the four but if they can find a taker for Mrazek or Brossoit (which seems less likely given the injury trouble), that would certainly help things.

samwise1313: Are the Blackhawks going in the right direction?

From a longer-term standpoint, I think so.  They already have one of the stronger prospect pools in the league and with nine picks in the first two rounds between the next two drafts (four first-rounders and five second-rounders), they’re set to make it even stronger pretty quickly.  I think they’d be a bit disappointed with how things have gone in Rockford but they’re at least in a play-in spot so there’s a chance that young group gets a bit of a postseason taste.  So as far as the long-term future goes, they’re doing alright.

But this season hasn’t been a great one.  The results have been ugly under both coaches and even Connor Bedard’s sophomore year hasn’t seen him take a big step forward as expected.  I didn’t have an issue with them getting some veterans to avoid having a bunch of young guys in spots they’re not necessarily ready for but they haven’t done well at moving the needle, so to speak.  In terms of progression, there hasn’t been much which is not what you want to see from a rebuilding squad.  In that sense, it feels like a bit of a wasted year but in the long run, they’re still on the right track when it comes to asset accumulation.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include some thoughts on how an increased salary cap could affect restricted free agency, Seth Jones’ situation in Chicago, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag while we still have one more to come.

JF Devs Fan: Would Anaheim accept Kovacevic for Zegras and let Z be the 3C for the Devils? Who else is a 3C the Devils can target at the trade deadline? Hopefully someone with speed, some defensive acumen, and enough offense.

Unless the Ducks just want to open up cap space and get out of Trevor Zegras’ contract, there’s no reason for them to accept the trade.  Johnathan Kovacevic is a pending unrestricted free agent and would be far from a guarantee to re-sign so that would be a pretty low return for a player who they’ve had a high asking price on in the past.  New Jersey, meanwhile, can’t afford to take on the $5.75MM price tag on their books for this season and Anaheim would have no interest in paying down the money.  If the Ducks were to move Zegras, I suspect they’d want a similarly-established top-six piece.

New Jersey has been linked to Montreal’s Jake Evans for a while and the fit is logical.  He is the league leader in playing time shorthanded among forwards so the defensive acumen is there.  He’s not the fastest but he’s not a bad skater.  And offensively, he’s on pace for around 35 points which is reasonable for a third liner.  He also has a $1.7MM price tag this season which is something they should be able to fit in without too much issue.  If Boston sells, Trent Frederic could be of some interest.  He’s only a year removed from an 18-goal season and third-line minutes and would add some sandpaper.

It wouldn’t shock me if they were among the teams interested in Seattle’s Yanni Gourde.  A lower-body injury will probably keep him out until the deadline but he’s due back soon after and he would certainly give the third line a boost.  The Kraken would need to retain half of his $5.167MM to make a deal palatable, however.  I’m sure they’d kick the tires on Brock Nelson but it’d surprise me if he was moved inside the division.  Another cheaper option would be Chicago’s Ryan Donato who is having a career year offensively and has spent some time at center.  The defensive acumen isn’t necessarily there but he’d be an intriguing pickup as well.  GM Tom Fitzgerald should have some options if they try to make a move down the middle.

Emoney123: Is restricted free agency going to be more active/change since the cap is increasing and should Briere consider offer-sheeting someone like Wyatt Johnston?

I should start this by saying I think restricted free agency is already more active than we realize.  We only find out if a player signs an offer sheet but I think there are some that are discussed every year that just don’t put pen to paper.  In that sense, I don’t think it will be necessarily much more active although the success St. Louis had with their additions of Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway might make players in that price range more palatable.  The Blues didn’t have to part with a first-round pick for either player which is notable.  I doubt we’ll see much more activity, however, or least activity that gets made public because of a signed offer sheet.

In theory, Philadelphia targeting a young center like Johnston makes perfect sense.  In practicality, however, it makes little sense.  In order to get him, they’d have to overpay to the point where it makes no sense for Dallas to match.  What’s that number going to be?

Let’s look at last year’s thresholds for an example.  (Keep in mind these numbers will go up this summer, too.)  Anything below $6.87MM is easily matched because they’re not going to give up Johnston without getting a first-round pick in return.  I think they match in the tier above that which caps at $9.16MM.  So now, to have a plausible shot at getting him, do the Flyers have to offer $10MM or more a season for Dallas to really have to think about it?  It’d probably have to be closer to the higher end of that tier, so now we might even be closer to $11MM.  And on top of that, the deal can’t be any longer than five years which is the maximum divisor.  They could offer seven years at that price point but with the divisor being five, the draft pick compensation would be pushed into the four first-round pick tier.  They’re not paying four first-round picks for Johnston.

So, to recap, the Flyers would have to offer a contract that would walk Johnston to UFA eligibility at 28, paying well above market value and coughing up two first-round picks, a second, and a third for the privilege to do so if Dallas didn’t match.  There’s a reason proven impactful players rarely sign offer sheets and this is it.  There just isn’t a price point that scares the receiving team away while still being affordable enough for the signing team.  I don’t know about you but a move like this doesn’t feel like a great move for a still-rebuilding team to make.

Unclemike1526: I’ve been watching the Seth Jones trade speculation with some interest. There is absolutely no doubt that Jones is overpaid. However, if the Hawks have to pay half his salary to move him that makes no sense to me either. Look he’s not horrible, a team cancer or negative value. IMO there is absolutely nothing to be gained by paying him to play somewhere else.

So, I guess my question is, what would be the minimum in your opinion that the Hawks could get away with to move him and make it worth their while? I’m thinking if they only had to pay $2 million a year to see him off and save $7 million a year would be worth it. Any more than that and with the Cap going up I’d keep him until they can get the years down enough to make that work would be the way I would go. What’s your opinion? Thanks.

You make an important point that I think sometimes gets lost in the speculation about trading Jones, especially now with the news that he is welcome to being moved (but hasn’t asked for a trade).  It is still pretty rare for teams to retain money for more than a couple of years and he has five years left after this one.  That’s a lot of money to pay a player not to play for you.  On the other hand, it’s a necessary decision to make if they’re going to move him as there isn’t going to be much of a market for him at $9.5MM, especially from the standpoint of trading him for value.

The first question I asked myself when I saw this question is what is today’s market value for Jones if he was a free agent?  With the cap set to rise (which partially offsets the age concern), he’s probably still in the $8.5MM range.  If that’s a rough estimate of what a team would sign him for, getting it down to that price tag is necessary to deal him basically for free or for a nominal return.

With that in mind, is paying the deal down to $7.5MM that much of a needle-mover?  I suppose it depends on what the end goal is here, simply clearing money or trying to get something resembling acceptable value for a pretty good player who Chicago paid a lot for not long ago.  (Or, with it being a different GM in charge and not Stan Bowman, will the sunk cost fallacy not come into play?)

If the end goal is simply clearing the contract, retaining $2MM should get it done.  But if they want to get any sort of impactful asset in return, that might have to go to $3MM per season.  That said, spending $15+ million on a player not to play for you to get a good asset in return isn’t a great idea either.  I think the better play is that they hold him for now but if it’s a case where he really wants out, then they might have to bite the bullet.

FeelTheThunder: There seems to be a lot of rumblings about Buffalo Sabres’ Alex Tuch and the Tampa Bay Lightning being linked. Granted, you always have to take things with a grain of salt per se but if there is smoke, there is fire. It’s widely reported that GM BriseBois is quite active searching for a middle six forward so the question becomes what does this potential deal look like?

Obviously, Tampa’s 2026 1st round pick would be a part of it. I assume a middle-round pick (3rd or 4th) would be added in the mix and maybe a player like Darren Raddysh as Buffalo is going to need depth on the defensive right side next season.

Now, if they ask for someone like Ethan Gauthier then we’ll be talking about a bigger trade here if Tampa is even open to moving him (I’m 50/50 on that possibility). I won’t bring up the potential Hobey Baker nominee Isaac Howard nor Conor Geekie as I feel both are off-limits. But in terms of other NHL-ready prospects Gage Goncalves could be someone to watch in the matter.

I wouldn’t necessarily say where there’s smoke, there’s fire.  There’s a lot of smoke at this time of year and most of it usually doesn’t amount to anything.  Most of the players a buying team will be connected to ultimately won’t be acquired.

If the goal is a middle-six forward (as I think it is) for Tampa Bay, that’s not Tuch.  He’s a first-liner and almost more importantly, he’s on a team-friendly contract at $4.75MM through next season.  Accordingly, there’s going to be some sticker shock on the price that’s going to be paid to get him if Buffalo actually moves him.  I agree that a first-round pick is a starting point but I don’t think the other two pieces are going to move the needle much.  I think they’d have a use for Raddysh but he’d be viewed as a secondary addition and those usually don’t go for top-liners.

You mentioned how Gauthier’s inclusion would make it a bigger deal.  I’m not so sure.  Frankly, I don’t know if the Sabres would jump at him plus the first-round pick; I think someone would beat that because if Tuch was actually made available, about half the league would make a serious offer.  Honestly, I doubt the Lightning have the trade chips to beat that many teams out so it’s hard to come up with a specific package.  I agree that Howard is someone they probably don’t intend to move but never say never.  If there’s a player with team control available that they think is a difference-maker, I don’t think any of their youngsters are truly off the table.  As for Goncalves, he cleared waivers barely a month ago so that should tell you that his trade value is minimal at best.

I know there’s a lot of speculation out there about Tuch but the bulk of the reporting all says the same thing – teams are calling about him but the Sabres are giving no indication that they have any interest in moving him.  Knowing that, if a team wants him, the price is going to be extremely high.  And in Tampa Bay’s case, adding a top-line scorer isn’t necessarily the most realistic priority for them.

letsgonats: Is there a playoff team that would NOT want Alex Tuch?

I kind of touched on this above but I’d imagine all 16 playoff teams would at least try to make a compelling offer with some knowing their chances of landing him would be quite slim.  I also think several non-playoff teams would at least kick the tires on his services in the hopes that they might be able to convince him to sign a contract extension, something that can be done as early as July 1st.  With Tuch growing up relatively close to Buffalo, I think the Sabres will also be planning on taking a run at signing him to a long-term extension as well.  If he was actually made available, he might be the most sought-after player in these next couple of weeks.

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With the 4 Nations Face-Off now underway, our latest mailbag focuses on that with a couple of other topics sprinkled in.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check for it in one of our next two mailbags.

Black Ace57: It feels like the only people excited for the 4 Nations are media members promoting it. It doesn’t compare to the World Juniors or the Olympics. Instead of trying to copy other international tournaments has the NHL considered doing anything like the NBA in-season tournament?

This was something that NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman was asked about before and while he didn’t come out with an outright no, it doesn’t seem to be something they’d seriously consider.  It’s also a bit of a scheduling nightmare as the NBA has to do part of its schedule midseason as all of the teams eliminated from contention have to have a couple of games scheduled on short notice.  If they can do it, the NHL can but that would undoubtedly be cited as a reason against trying it.

The NBA’s in-season tournament has only been around a couple of years but I feel like this season lost a lot of its intrigue from the first.  From the pieces of games I saw, it’s not as if teams were playing any harder with the potential of moving on in the tournament.  It all felt a little too random so I’m not sure copying that format is the right way to go, not unless its popularity really rises in the future.

What the NHL could do if they wanted to do something to dress up some regular season games could be some regional challenges.  The seven Canadian teams have six games designated as Canadian Challenge Cup games and the team with the most points out of those wins a trophy and the players get a small bonus.  The three California-based teams have two head-to-heads against each rival designated as a mini tournament, stuff like that where it’s not just a random grouping.  It certainly doesn’t work to put all 32 teams into a logical region though so it’s far from a perfect idea.

They could also group by division (instead of random groups like the NBA does) and just designate a certain number of games as ‘tournament’ matchups.  There are options if they want to do something, I’m just not sure it’s actually worth them doing anything with this.

Pyramid Headcrab: What’s the real reason for the winter break every season? Obviously, players need a break from travel, and fair dinkum… But is that something they negotiated in the collective agreement? Or does the break exist for a different, but equally practical, reason?

Cuz I think we all know nobody cares about the All-Star Game or the Four Nations Whatever.

This isn’t a direct CBA element but is actually related to the All-Star Game.  When the change was made to go to a three-on-three format, the NHL had to agree to this as a concession to get the NHLPA to agree to the format switch as, in theory, there’s a lot more skating involved at three-on-three.  (In reality, the All-Star Games aren’t played at remotely close to full speed but I digress.)

In general, the idea is that without the bye week, the NHL’s top stars don’t exactly get a lot of rest.  They play to the break, fly in for the All-Star event, then are back in action a couple of days later and some feel that’s not fair to them.  By doing the bye weeks, they ensure that the stars at least get some time off while it’s around the time of year when all teams could benefit from some extra days off to heal up some of the nagging aches and pains.

As for no one caring about the All-Star Game, I disagree.  It has an audience it caters to, it’s just not so much the established fans.  They try to promote things for the younger demographic that they’re trying to hook as fans while there’s a major corporate element to it as well with a lot of the league’s top sponsors being involved.  As long as those two things are in play, the All-Star Game will continue…even next season when the in-season break will be even longer for the Olympics.

FearTheWilson: If a player happens to receive a suspension during the Snore Nation’s tournament, does the suspension carry over to the NHL season or does it count towards international play?

The 4 Nations Face-Off is not an IIHF-sanctioned event.  That’s why there’s no break in those leagues for players (or coaches) to possibly take part which is what made this an NHL-only tournament.  Accordingly, any suspension would be applied against NHL games, not international.

While we’re on the subject of not being IIHF-sanctioned, it doesn’t seem as if the 2028 World Cup event will be either.  That will likely complicate things for some of the countries that don’t quite have enough NHL players to form a full roster.  In a press conference earlier this week, Bettman alluded to needing to “work with each country’s federation to find a balance” when it comes to player participation so there are going to be some hurdles to clear for three years from now.

Gmm8811: Is there a roster freeze during the 4 Nations? Can trades still be made? Where would be the best fit for Brayden Schenn if he waives his NMC? Realistic return for him?

Since this question was posted, we have seen a very minor trade which kind of answered this one for me already.  But there is no roster freeze and teams are free to make any moves as long as they remain compliant with the salary cap and roster rules (teams have to have two goalies, six defensemen, and 12 forwards on their active roster).  I’ll be honest, I thought we’d see another trade or two by now so that when teams come back to practice next week, the potential acquisition would get lots of practice time.  Of course, I also suspect that teams were quietly discouraged against doing anything that would take attention and focus away from the tournament so maybe that’s playing a role as well.

Now, onto a couple of non-tournament questions for now before getting back to them later on.  Staying in the Central Division is probably the best fit for him.  Colorado has been looking for center help since they lost Nazem Kadri and Schenn doesn’t quite have the offense Kadri did now but he’d still be quite impactful.  Winnipeg has been looking for a longer-term second middleman for years now with minimal success.  And Minnesota has a genuine need for more center depth at a minimum and with continued whispers about Marco Rossi that don’t seem to be going away (despite GM Bill Guerin trying to tone that down a while back), adding Schenn would at least give them some more flexibility if they wanted to do something with Rossi.  I could even make a case for Utah here.  I know trading a core player within the division doesn’t happen a lot but there are enough strong fits that could net St. Louis a strong return.

As for that return, I think it’s fair to say that it would start with a first-round pick.  Yes, a $6.5MM price tag through 2027-28 for a 33-year-old is a little high but with the big jump coming in the salary cap, it becomes a lot easier to absorb.  Not to the point where it’s an asset by any stretch but it shouldn’t be a deterrent now.  It wouldn’t shock me if they were to land another first-round-caliber asset either though not necessarily a draft pick but rather a prospect or young player who’s either in the NHL or close to being ready.  I doubt the Blues are going to flip the switch to do a long-term rebuild so an all-futures return doesn’t seem likely.  It also wouldn’t shock me to see them take a veteran player back to help offset some of the money as I doubt they’re going to retain salary to make a move happen.  It’s a big price but with the dearth of quality centers available, I think they could get it if they move him.

sabres3277: Do you believe the Sabres will make the inevitable GM change during the break to allow an interim GM to handle the trade deadline? I think this could happen because Adams is clearly out of his league when trying to make deals etc. The fanbase has had it with the incompetence that he has shown in trying to end this disgraceful playoff drought.

It hasn’t happened yet so it’s safe to say that it’s not going to happen.  Frankly, if a team had concerns about their general manager, they wouldn’t let that person stay in place this close to the trade deadline.  By all accounts, Kevyn Adams has been working the phones in recent weeks on the trade and contract front so this is his team to lead through the deadline.

While the Flyers are a recent notable exception, general managers generally don’t get let go right around the deadline.  Instead, changes like that often come after the regular season ends.  If Buffalo does decide to make a change at the GM position, I think it will be made in April as the playoffs are about to start.  Doing something now would surprise me.

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The 4 Nations Face-Off will provide a breather from day-to-day transactions, leaving general managers added time to focus on what the next month may entail for their clubs before the March 7 trade deadline. There have been multiple big swaps already, but more are still to come, with Dylan Cozens, Seth Jones, Brock Nelson, and Rickard Rakell among the names who could be on the move.

With that in mind, it’s a good time for our next mailbag segment. Our last one was split into two parts. The first included forward targets for the Lightning, the likelihood of the Panthers retaining both Sam Bennett and Aaron Ekblad, and whether Jakob Chychrun will stick with the Capitals, among other topics. The second discussed offer sheet strategies for the summer, additions the Flyers could make to pair with Matvei Michkov, and whether Zach Werenski can bring a Norris Trophy to Columbus.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter/X or by leaving a comment down below. The mailbag will run on the weekend.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Zach Werenski’s Norris candidacy, forecasting the next contract for Marco Rossi, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag while we’ll run one more next weekend as well.

Gmm8811: It’s looking like the Broberg/Holloway offer sheets have worked out really well for the Blues. Do you foresee more GM’s taking a harder look at that option in the future? Thoughts on next year’s steals?

At this point, the Blues certainly have to be happy with how things turned out.  Philip Broberg is a legitimate top-four defender for them and Dylan Holloway has blown past his career bests offensively and turned into a capable top-six winger.  For what it’s worth, Edmonton pivoted relatively well with their low-cost replacements of Ty Emberson and Vasily Podkolzin, given the circumstances.  Those two aren’t playing at the level Broberg and Holloway are now but they are playing to the level those two likely would have performed at had they stayed with the Oilers.

That type of success story should make general managers a bit more willing to look into offer sheets as an option although I do think more of them get floated around than we ever see.  We only find out when one is signed, not when one is discussed between teams and agents.  With another fair-sized jump expected in the salary cap, there’s definitely going to be a chance for a strategic offer sheet or two this summer.

The challenge is finding a team that will be cap-strapped early in free agency.  There will be plenty, sure, but identifying them now isn’t as easy as there are many signings and trades to be made over the next six months.  It’s also finding a younger player who wants a shorter-term deal as with the divisor for offer sheet compensation only being a maximum of five (even on a contract longer than that) cranks up the draft pick cost too high to be worthwhile.

If Florida finds a way to re-sign or replace both Aaron Ekblad and Sam Bennett, they’re going to have to look at low-cost deals to round out their roster.  That could make someone like Mackie Samoskevich a bit vulnerable as the Panthers would probably prefer a cheap one-year contract while he could command a two-year or three-year deal from a team that sees him playing a bigger role and is willing to pay him accordingly.  If Seattle re-signs or replaces Yanni Gourde and Brandon Tanev, that might push them into a lower-cost deal with Ryker Evans so I think teams would sniff around that but he seems less likely.  If the Stars are active between retaining or replacing their veterans, they could be vulnerable if they force themselves to pursue shorter-term agreements with their RFAs.  Wyatt Johnston probably isn’t attainable but if there’s a team that really believes in Mavrik Bourque, I could see him garnering offer sheet interest as well.

Emoney123: Is there a trade or potential 2025 free agent the Flyers can pair with Michkov?

From a UFA perspective, it depends on whether Philadelphia views Mikko Rantanen as a center, a position he has played off and on with Colorado.  If Rantanen wants to go for top dollar (which likely takes him off the table to re-sign), the Flyers are one of the teams that would have enough cap space that they could plausibly afford him without needing to do much subtraction from their roster.  I suppose Mitch Marner fits as well if Matvei Michkov switches to the left wing as a left-hand shot but is that too much raw playmaking on one line?  That said, if the Flyers had a shot at adding a top talent like that, do it and figure the rest out later might be the best approach there.

On the trade front, Vancouver seems like the team to try to make a move with if they ultimately decide to move one of Elias Pettersson or J.T. Miller (who has full no-trade protection).  Legitimate top centers don’t come available too often and while both players have recent question marks, they also have a proven track record of recent production.  The cost for either would be significant, both in terms of current and future assets and with the Flyers still being in the build-up stage, a swap like that might not be at the most optimal time.  But again, with the scarcity of those types of players being traded, that shouldn’t dissuade GM Daniel Briere from inquiring at least about what it would cost to get one of them.

bottlesup: It might be a bit early, but is it safe to throw Werenski’s name into the Norris conversation?

I’d say it’s very safe to have Werenski in that mix.  He’s among the league leaders among blueliners for points, plays in all situations (all-around ability is right in the criteria for the award), and leads the NHL in average ice time.  When you’re in the mix offensively with the likes of Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes, you’re definitely doing something right.  He has undoubtedly played a significant role in the Blue Jackets surprisingly finding themselves in the battle for a playoff spot at the midway mark of the season, an outcome few would have seen coming.

I expect that their playoff situation will ultimately dictate whether he wins the award.  That, and staying healthy, of course.  It’s not unprecedented that a non-playoff blueliner wins it as Erik Karlsson did just two years ago.  However, his numbers were so far and beyond the rest (he had 25 points more than any other defender) that they were enough of a difference-maker.  Werenski isn’t going to have that luxury.  If the Blue Jackets come up short of a playoff spot, he’ll probably land plenty of second and third-place votes but that won’t be enough to win.  But if they get in, he’ll be the driving reason why which should sway lots of first-place votes his way and make the difference.

Zakis: What does a Marco Rossi extension look like?

Why are the Iowa Wild perpetually bad and has that had influence on prospects seemingly not reaching another level (thinking Hunt, Lambos, Jiricek)?

Back in the summer, I basically pegged Rossi’s range as a bridge deal starting with a three or a long-term deal starting with a five if he had a season similar to 2023-24 this year.  That clearly isn’t happening since he’s already nearly matched his point total from a year ago in half the games.  That’s certainly going to change the numbers.  The bridge deal now will probably start with a four and a longer-term agreement that buys out UFA years coming closer to the $7MM range depending on how many years it buys out.  (And if he produces at an even higher rate in the second half, those numbers will go up even more).

Despite the strong showing this season, I tend to lean toward the bridge deal for Rossi.  There has been a lot of smoke about the Wild not being fully sold on Rossi (who’s undersized for a center) and while the team has tried to quash that, I don’t think they’re going from being uncertain about him to handing him a long-term deal.  I also expect Minnesota to take advantage of their cap space and try to make a splash or two in free agency (or on the trade front) that might push them to have to go that route anyway.

As for the farm team, I didn’t realize the history was that bad.  For those who don’t follow Iowa, in their first 11 years of existence, they made the playoffs once and lost in the play-in round once.  There has been considerable turnover in terms of their coaching along the way as well.  Without watching them closely, I can’t begin to assess what’s happening beyond simple guesswork which doesn’t do any good.

I don’t think it’s fair to put David Jiricek in that group considering he’s barely been with them for a month but I would suggest that yes, a continuous losing environment doesn’t help from a development perspective.  Sometimes it’s good to have more prospects meaning the youngsters are getting playing time but I believe there’s value in being in a good spot, playing meaningful hockey, and seeing some playoff action.  It’s hard to objectively state that yes, that held some players back from getting to another level – it’s not that simple, obviously – but I’d say it hasn’t helped.

Unclemike1526: Not being able to watch the games this year, I’m just curious is Soderblom that much better or is it just a mirage? After being able to watch the last three games I’m not exactly missing watching them anyway. It would be nice to get an opinion. I’d dare say right now Soderblom is the best G on the Hawks since Laurent Brossoit can’t play. As bad as Soderblom was last year it’s hard to believe he is that much better.

It’s a combination of a couple of things.  Arvid Soderblom is still young (he’s 25) and it was reasonable to think he’d bounce back, at least to a point after a tough 2023-24 season.  Also, year-to-year volatility for goalies is pretty common, especially younger ones; if veterans can have big swings in performance, so can the unproven ones.  I wouldn’t necessarily say it’s a mirage, it’s just a young goalie who hopefully improved after a tough year and with less than 20 appearances, it’s still too early to say much conclusively.

With Brossoit out and Petr Mrazek a veteran placeholder, you’re absolutely right in that Soderblom is their best option right now.  And with the Blackhawks going nowhere in the standings this year, they should be going to Soderblom more often right now so that they can better assess him.  There’s a reason why he was their goalie of the short-term future not long ago and a reason why they had to go add Brossoit in the summer since he played so poorly last year.  Right now, they need to get a better sense of what they have and see if he’s still part of the future plans.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the cap crunch the Panthers will be facing as they look to re-sign two key unrestricted free agents this summer, options for the Jets to solve their roster needs, and much more.  With so many questions this time around, we’ll break them into three separate pieces instead of the usual two.

FeeltheThunder: As a Tampa fan, I’m wondering the type of combo Tampa will go for in the trade deadline. Tampa is a much-improved team from last year (night and day, really). I feel Tampa may go for one or two forwards to add more additional depth to their middle/bottom six group like they did a few years ago with Brandon Hagel and Nick Paul (that’s worked out quite well). They have a pretty good defensive group overall and have some depth so I don’t know if adding a defensive piece is necessary. What do you think of the combo they’ll go with and who may the targets be?

I feel one name for starters (if available) Jake Evans from Montreal has a number of qualities Tampa tends to aim for in a player and Tampa/Montreal have traded in the past.

In follow-up comments, you also mentioned Luke Kunin (who I’ve tossed out before as a possible fit for them) and Will Cuylle (who might be one of the more untouchable Rangers at the moment).  I still like Kunin as a fit for them.  If memory serves, I had Mikael Granlund on that list previously, assuming they can make the money work with the Sharks out of retention slots.  I think he’s still a good fit for them too.

Evans is a good one as well although the asking price on him is going to be fairly high with the start he’s off to this season.  At a $1.7MM cap charge, he’ll be affordable for a lot of contenders which will drive up the acquisition cost.  If Buffalo sells, Jordan Greenway could be viewed as trying to refill the Tanner Jeannot slot, probably at a much lesser price point than what was paid to Nashville to get Jeannot.  Another center that could interest them is Sean Kuraly, someone who can kill penalties and play with an edge.  If Utah sells, Nick Bjugstad could also fit the bill.

If they go for two forwards, it’ll be a center/winger combo (and if they wound up with someone like Kunin who plays all three positions), even better for them.  Aside from Granlund, all are cheap enough that Tampa Bay could afford them outright without necessarily needing retention at the trade deadline if they’re able to stay healthy between now and then.

Having said that, it wouldn’t shock me if one of their additions is on the back end, looking for a third-pairing upgrade.  Someone who can kill penalties, play with an edge, and give them a bit more depth in case injuries arise.  In essence, something like the David Savard move a few years ago (just not at the cost of a first-round pick).  Depending on what happens with Savard in Montreal and what they look to do up front, he could be a potentially plausible fit again.

Sunshine swede: Do you think Panthers can extend both Ekblad and Bennett? Guess Bennett will earn a raise, while Ekblad might have a cut. What do you think about their next deals?

Keeping one is definitely doable but both could be a challenge.  Per PuckPedia, they have $72.5MM in commitments on the books for next season already to 15 players.  If the salary cap lands around the $92MM range (some could see it going higher but for now, that’s the 5% allowable increase), that gives them a little less than $20MM to work with, a bit less than that if they want to leave themselves some in-season wiggle room.

Coming into the season, Sam Bennett was probably looking at a long-term deal in the $6.5MM range.  Given the dearth of impact centers set to become an unrestricted free agent and the fact he’s on pace for career highs offensively across the board, it stands to reason that he could push past $7MM on his next deal.  Frankly, something along the lines of Aaron Ekblad’s current price tag ($7.5MM) wouldn’t shock me given his playoff success.

As for Ekblad, he’s also set to benefit from a fairly weak UFA market; it’s basically between him and Neal Pionk for the top veteran right-shot option available.  While he’s not the big point producer he was earlier in his career, he still plays a big defensive role, logs heavy minutes, and is on pace for around 40 points again.  I could see a small cut in his pay but I could also see a long-term deal at that price tag again depending on how many teams are serious about bidding for him.

If the two of them cost, say, $14MM combined, now you’re down to only around $5MM to re-sign Mackie Samoskevich and sign a couple of depth forwards and depth defenders.  That’d make it tough to do anything to materially improve the roster.  Of course, losing one of those two would certainly hurt things as well.  I think the likeliest outcome is that they only keep one but if they really want to make their roster more top-heavy, there’s a way to keep both of them around and then restructure a bit once their $14.5MM goalie tandem sees their contract expire in 2026.

2012orioles: Is a Jakob Chychrun extension with the Capitals going to happen?

Last month, Chychrun indicated to Sportsnet’s Luke Fox that he could see himself re-signing with Washington.  And frankly, it’s easy to see why.  The Caps have been one of the biggest pleasant surprises of the season with their roster makeover during the summer paying dividends with Chychrun playing a big role in that.  He’s on pace for a career year offensively with 11 goals and 14 assists in just 33 games.  His shooting percentage (15.1%) is a lot higher than his career average so there might be a bit of regression coming on the goal front but even so, he should blow past his personal benchmark of 41 points as long as he stays healthy.  In a contract year, that’s great news for him.

That next contract is going to be quite pricey, however.  He was probably in the $7MM range heading into the season and with the year he’s having offensively and the talk of a salary cap increase of more than 5%, it wouldn’t be shocking to see his next AAV start with an eight.  That might seem high but he’ll be 27 when he hits the open market; whoever signs him will be getting several of his prime years.

Can the Capitals be the team that gives him that contract?  I think they can be.  Per PuckPedia, they have $63.7MM on the books for 2025-26 with 14 players signed.  Granted, they need to sign a goalie tandem that will cost a lot more than the sub-$2MM they’re paying this year but there’s room for another big-ticket deal on the books.  Having said that, a Chychrun extension would push them past $30MM (probably closer to $32MM) on their back end so they may want to trim a bit.  But they can afford it and he’s a very good fit.  I think they can get it done.

DevilShark: What do you see as Hughes III ceiling in Norris voting this year? Could he crack the top 10?

Let’s recap his first half of the season.  Luke Hughes has three goals and 15 assists in 33 games so far.  Decent offensive numbers, sure, but hardly worthy of award consideration.  It’s even a step back from his per-game production from last season.  On top of that, his playing time is down by nearly two minutes a night from last year.  He sits fifth among New Jersey defenders in ATOI as a result.

Is this realistically the profile of a player who should be in consideration for the Norris Trophy as the NHL’s best defenseman?  Logically, doesn’t Hughes need to be New Jersey’s top blueliner to be even considered for the award?  While it’s worth noting that the Devils run three very balanced pairings, I don’t see a case to be made for him to land on a ballot let alone finish in the top ten in voting.

It wouldn’t shock me for Hughes to one day land in there.  Once he takes on a bigger role and if he can become the type of highly productive blueliner many project him to be, he’ll get into that range.  But that’s not going to happen this season.

rpoabr: What’s the trade that puts the LA Kings into true Cup contention? Doughty coming back soon (hopefully) should already be a boost.

Drew Doughty’s eventual return will be the biggest boost they get.  Adding a legitimate number one blueliner to the roster puts the rest of the back end in a more optimal spot on the depth chart and gives them a bit more depth in general.  If they stay healthy the rest of the way, they probably don’t need to make a move to add defensive depth so we can scratch that off the list of trade options.

But here’s the problem.  When Doughty returns (probably later this month), that’s the end of their cap space.  The Kings are operating in LTIR which means they haven’t been banking cap space.  Right now, they have lots to spend with an LTIR pool of more than $10MM.  When he comes back, they have to start trimming players to get back into cap compliance.  That puts them in a spot where they’re going to have to match money or get double retention on a player.  That means there isn’t a trade available to them this season that’s going to vault them into true Cup contention.

What could help put them into at least semi-contender status would be adding a top-six winger to help get them out of the middle of the pack offensively.  Making the money work would require double retention but players like Jason Zucker and Kyle Palmieri come to mind, players that will boost their middle six and should be acquirable for a package starting with a second-round pick.  But even with that, when you’re in a division with Vegas and Edmonton, they’re going to be hard-pressed to get to true Stanley Cup contention no matter what move(s) they make.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Philadelphia’s sluggish start, the top offseason acquisitions, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in our last mailbag.

Emoney123: The Flyers rebuild has stalled… how does it begin again? Ersson, Fedotov, and Kolosov seem like a circus in goal; scoring and defense are horrible… will the 2025 draft offer hope since they hold their own, Colorado, and potentially Edmonton’s [top-12 protected] first-round pick plus three second-round picks? Is Tortorella the right coach or Briere as GM? One playoff appearance in seven years, and that was six years ago.

I feel like the Flyers are a victim of misplaced expectations.  Going into last season, pretty much everyone thought they’d be one of the bottom feeders in the East.  But they proved to be more competitive early on and while they fell off the proverbial cliff down the stretch, they didn’t miss the playoffs by much.  That led to higher expectations for this season which was a mistake.

This is still a team that, on paper, isn’t all that good.  Yes, they added Matvei Michkov.  But this team wasn’t a rookie-season Michkov away from being a legitimate playoff threat.

So, has the rebuild really stalled?  Or is it actually back where it was supposed to be last season where they were expected to bottom out?

Will the draft provide some hope?  It should as their own selection should be relatively high and while the other two first-rounders are likely to be closer to the back, they still should get players who project to be NHL-quality pieces.  Three second-rounders give them a chance to deepen the prospect pool or to try to trade up from those late firsts to get a few spots higher.  The rebuild will be in better shape when the draft is completed.

I’ll hold off on the Tortorella part of your question (it comes up in the next one) but as for Daniel Briere, this is his second full season on the job.  Rebuilds take a lot longer than that to try to assess and as much as they didn’t have much success before then, they weren’t really in a full-scale rebuild either.  Realistically, it’s probably two years too early to really sit down and evaluate if they’re going in the right direction or not.  I think they’re in the right direction though and while the goaltending isn’t pretty right now, this is what they need to learn.  Will one of the three find another gear and show he’s part of the future plans?  They need to find that out but the process of getting to that answer isn’t always pretty.

Black Ace57: How do you think the season will go with Torts and Michkov? I don’t think it’s a bad thing at all to hold him accountable and bench him at times if he’s making mistakes or not putting in effort. Saying that, sometimes Torts goes too far with the Couturier benching last year being a good example. Do you think Torts will manage Michkov well or do you think he will be fired before the season is over?

I’m a bit old-school by nature and still think there’s a place for Tortorella-type coaches in the NHL.  I actually think he’s a good fit for Michkov in the youngsters’ early career.  Tortorella is generally viewed as firm but fair with his players; there isn’t much favoritism.  That means there shouldn’t be any thought that when Tortorella sits Michkov down that he’s going out of his way to pick on the youngster; he’s doing what he’d do with just about anyone.

I’ve always thought of Tortorella as someone who really wants to focus on the fundamentals and good work habits.  Isn’t that exactly what Michkov needs?  Learning to best weaponize his offensive skills will come over time but having someone really drill home the other stuff in the early stages of his career should only pay dividends down the road.

Going back to the Tortorella part of the last question, I think he’s a good fit for this group (including Michkov) for now.  But he generally doesn’t have a long shelf life with his teams and he’s probably not the coach who will lead them out of the rebuild.  I think he lasts the rest of this season but an offseason change wouldn’t shock me if they stay on this trajectory for the rest of the season.

Jaysen: Jake Evans is attracting a lot of interest right now. Personally, I don’t want my beloved Habitants to trade him. Really like the player. I hope they re-sign him. 3 yrs/3.5aav would be the max in terms of yrs and AAV.

The Habs are also looking for a forward with edge. What would be your top three targets that would fit with our rebuild/progression?

Let’s talk about Evans.  He’s off to a decent start to his season but he only has reached eight goals or more once and is on pace for 17 this year so this is probably an outlier of a start.  Going to that high of a price tag for someone with a track record of very limited production might not be the wisest move, especially with Owen Beck and Oliver Kapanen waiting in the wings.  I believe Montreal would like to keep him at the right price as an insurance policy and a capable defensive player but I’d be surprised if that number starts with a three.

On the other side of the coin, knowing that this is his first trip through unrestricted free agency, why would Evans limit himself to a three-year deal at this point?  Chances are he can get longer than that on the open market so if Montreal does want to lock him up, it’s probably going to take more years than three to get him.

As for the forward with edge, I’ve seen that report as well, coupled with the notion that it needs to be someone who fits their rebuild timeline.  In essence, they’re looking for a 23-year-old power forward (or someone around that age).  Those are in short supply and I’m not sure there’s a single one who realistically would be available.  This feels like the type of thing a front office leaks to make it look like they’re trying to add while knowing they’re basically looking for a unicorn so I can’t give you three suggestions there unfortunately; I can’t even come up with one that might plausibly be had.

Having said that, I think they might be open to a Denis Gurianov type of pickup like they did a couple of years ago for someone that’s a bit older than their prospect pool.  He was a younger player who had a bit of success in the past and they felt he could be a possible reclamation project.  And if that player happens to play with a bit of bite, even better.  We’re still a bit early in the season to know which younger players will be in this situation.  Frankly, my first inclinations of who could be in that spot in the coming weeks/months (Pontus Holmberg and Rasmus Kupari) don’t play with much jam.  If Buffalo decides to move on from Peyton Krebs though, he might be one they look at but generally speaking, players in this type of category are sell-low and I’m doubtful the Sabres are at that point with him yet.

Schwa: How is Spencer Knight viewed relative to other top young goalies at this point?

It wasn’t that long ago that Knight was viewed as one of the top young goalies in the league.  After a strong college career, he impressed in his first taste of action in the pros and was rightfully seen as Florida’s goalie of the future.  The three-year, $13.5MM contract he signed back in 2022 hasn’t aged well, however, and that deal might be influencing his perception a little bit.

For those who haven’t followed him, Knight missed a big chunk of the 2022-23 campaign after enrolling in the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program.  Ken Campbell of The Hockey News interviewed him if you want to learn more about why he was in there.  Then the following year, Florida opted to bring in Anthony Stolarz as the backup to Sergei Bobrovsky (a move that worked out quite well) to allow Knight to get a bigger workload in the minors.  He had a 2.41 GAA with a .905 SV% in 41 games with AHL Charlotte last season, numbers that were decent but not at the level of a top prospect either.

This year, Knight has been around NHL average in his first six outings with a 2.85 GAA and a .897 SV%.  Again, those numbers are decent (the average save percentage is hovering around .900 league-wide) but that’s not great bang for their buck.  Frankly, if he stays around that level, I wonder if Florida considers a buyout next summer, a move that would save them $3.75MM on the cap next season while adding $750K for 2026-27.  I don’t know if they’d do it but I think it’d be considered.

If I’m musing about a buyout, it’s fair to say he isn’t in the tier of other top young goalies anymore.  But with only 63 career NHL appearances, he’s not that far removed from prospect status either.  I expect Knight will get a little better as the season goes on and while he won’t get back to that top tier (where Yaroslav Askarov and Jesper Wallstedt are, for example), he’ll show enough to stay in Florida’s plans.

Gmm8811: I think the Blues have proved to be exactly what everyone thought they would be this year. How much further do they sink before Army starts showcasing youth and moving older vets for draft picks?

I don’t expect they’re going to sink much lower than they are, to be honest.  They’re 12th in the West which feels about where they should be and I agree, they’ve played up to a reasonable level of expectation so far.

But I don’t expect a sell-off to come anytime soon.  For starters, it’s too early in the year.  Teams with cap space don’t want to blow it this early unless it’s a highly impactful piece and St. Louis probably isn’t moving any of those.  The second is that the Blues don’t exactly have a whole lot to offer up veteran-wise.

Their most prominent rental up front is Radek Faksa and Dallas gave him away for free four months ago; it’s not as if he carries a lot of trade value.  With retention, maybe they get a late-round pick but that’s someone’s Plan C or D at the trade deadline, not now.  On the back end, Ryan Suter will be a solid trade chip but teams will want more of his games played bonuses to be reached before acquiring him which pushes him closer to a deadline move as well.

Among non-rentals, Brandon Saad has some value but at $4.5MM, that’s a hard salary to fit on the books this early in the season.  I could see him fetching a good return in late February/early March though when his remaining salary for this season is a lot lower.  Jordan Binnington at $6MM through 2026-27 could be a trade candidate but he might be easier to move in the summer than now.

I just don’t see a big sell-off from this team.  They’re going to want to keep most of their core guys and avoid a longer-scale rebuild which means most of what they have to offer are supporting pieces.  In the meantime, if they want to open up a spot for a youngster, it might come through someone landing on waivers (much like Kasperi Kapanen) and the prospect coming up into that vacated position.

DevilShark: Sample size is getting reasonable now… I’m curious who you think have been the best acquisitions at each position this season (FA or trade) in terms of driving their teams’ success.

Goalie: It’s hard not to pick Jacob Markstrom here.  Last season, injuries and bad goaltending were costly on a team that talent-wise should have been in the playoff mix.  Markstrom has come in and given them that stable goaltending and they’re first in the division.  And yet, he’s not my pick.  Instead, it’s Anthony Stolarz in Toronto.  With Joseph Woll injured to start the year, Stolarz took the starting job and has run with it and is once again among the league leaders in GAA and SV%.  If he wasn’t up to the task, they could easily be on the outside looking in at the playoffs right now.

Defense: Considering the Kraken are a .500 team, it’s hard to pick Brandon Montour here but I’m going to anyway.  His addition raised some eyebrows as he was coming off a tough year by recent standards in Florida.  But with Seattle, he is an all-situations impactful player which is exactly what they needed.  With Vince Dunn on LTIR, he absorbed even more responsibility.  I’d say his play is a big reason why they are where they are right now and not even lower in the standings.

Forward: This one’s a bit harder as some of the top performers statistically with new teams (such as Sean Monahan) are on teams who have struggled so far while others (someone like Stefan Noesen) are doing well but are in supporting roles.  So I’m going to use a different definition of success than you probably intended with this pick of Tyler Toffoli in San Jose.  The Sharks wanted to be more competitive this season and they have been; they’re far from the easy win they were a year ago.  They brought him in to be a leader on a young group and help take some offensive pressure off of them.  He checks both of those boxes and sits second on the team in scoring.  For what their goals are for this season, Toffoli is doing exactly what San Jose wants from him.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include why the time might not be right for Dallas to look into defensive help, speculating on possible trade targets for Tampa Bay, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

PyramidHeadcrab: With Columbus potentially looking to take on a big contract and San Jose actively improving by adding some talented misfits from other teams, who are some players you could see bound for each team as the season progresses?

And if Columbus does take on a big contract, do you think it will be another team paying to unload an overpayment contract, or a team like the Leafs offloading a decent contract as a result of their cap crunch?

I think Columbus is open to both options, as long as the contract they take on is a short-term one (see Dante Fabbro).  Knowing that they’ve typically been more of a budget team, they’re probably not going to want to spend some of their financial capital on a long-term pickup whose primary purpose is to add a draft pick or two.  But something for a year or two could be manageable.

In terms of who that could be, one of the names that comes to mind is Oliver Bjorkstrand who was healthy scratched recently.  Moved to Seattle as a cap-clearing move originally, he’s someone who should be comfortable in the market and it wouldn’t shock me if the Kraken try to move out a pricey contract to give themselves some cap flexibility as they’re really tight when everyone’s healthy.   I could see them being open to taking the final years of Ryan Ellis’ LTIR contract if Philadelphia wants to bank more cap space (or Ryan Johansen wins his grievance later on and gets at least part of his deal back on the books).  With that deal being insured, the actual cost outlay would be minimal in that sense.

I suspect they’d be open to taking a more reasonable deal off a cap-strapped team like Toronto but the Maple Leafs will be looking to move those pieces for some value while the Blue Jackets are probably looking to get a player plus a sweetener for taking a contract on.  With that in mind, I’m not sure that lines up at this point trade-wise for those teams.

Frankly, there aren’t a ton of pricey contracts out there that fit the bill.  When I wrote the piece about them last weekend talking about their willingness to do this, I didn’t bother getting into speculation as I don’t see a lot of fits for them.  Unless they’re willing to take on a longer-term agreement, I don’t necessarily see them accomplishing this in the coming months.

I don’t see the Sharks actively trying to add any other veteran players for a while.  They’re also a budget team and right now, they’re going to want to see how some of their younger pieces fare.  If some of them falter too much, then perhaps they look to see if there’s a rental veteran to bridge the gap but there are a lot of rental veterans out there.  At the trade deadline, perhaps they take on an expiring contract from a team that needs to move money to make a bigger splash but again, that could be a lot of players.  If another Timothy Liljegren-type trade comes around where they can get a mid-20s player with some control for a low cost, that might be their preferred route.  Before the season, I’d have said someone like Kaapo Kakko who was in trade speculation but that’s probably not an option at the moment.

vincent k. mcmahon: With the recent injury to Broberg and Leddy still out, do the Blues call up another d-man if they can or do they hold out until Leddy returns?  Also, do you think this might cause an issue with the chemistry of the d-pairings?

I’m a little surprised St. Louis hasn’t brought up a blueliner at this point, to be honest.  They’re already into LTIR so there isn’t a cap-related element to them electing not to do so.  Tyler Tucker is quite familiar with the systems already and would be a safe option to have as a seventh/reserve option while Corey Schueneman has experience in that role as well with Montreal and Colorado (to a lesser extent).  One of them easily could be up as insurance.

I wouldn’t be too worried about the chemistry of the defense pairings.  When Nick Leddy returns – which should be relatively soon – he will go back into the lineup and play a prominent role, deservedly so.  There will be injuries throughout the year or players struggling that will necessitate changes so it’s unlikely the defense pairings will stay together for any sort of extended stretch over the course of the season.

That’s a league-wide observation too, not a Blues-specific one.  Even teams with a proven defensive group will mix things up from time to time as you never know when you might be forced into making a change when injuries strike so St. Louis, a team whose back end is much less secure, shouldn’t have any concerns about needing to mix up their pairings.

bottlesup: Dallas making any calls on defenders? Fowler, Provorov, or even maybe Arber Xhekaj? Which would require the most in return then the one that would require the least?

I’m sure they’re making calls on defensemen but I doubt they’re seriously pursuing any at this time.  At the moment, per PuckPedia, Dallas can only add someone making around $1.7MM.  If their roster remains relatively unchanged, they could have the ability to add someone making more than $6MM.  Those are two very different pools to shop in.  In the first price range, maybe there’s a third-pairing upgrade.  That’s useful but doesn’t move the needle too much.  But at the deadline, being able to pick up $6MM opens up a lot more options, especially at a time when more teams are open to retaining salary.

I don’t see Cam Fowler being a viable option for the Stars solely because of the extra year on his contract.  Dallas can’t afford a $6.5MM player on the books for next season when Jake Oettinger’s big raise kicks in while Wyatt Johnston and Jamie Benn are among their free agents.  Unless Anaheim paid down half the contract (which would probably up the asking price to a first-round pick and then some), it’s probably not a great fit.

I don’t mind the Ivan Provorov option though.  While he’s a left-shot defender, he’s playing on the right in Columbus and that’s the side the Stars need an upgrade on.  Could he go in and cover 20-plus minutes a night and kill penalties?  I think so and that’s the type of player they need to take some pressure off the top options.  The Blue Jackets will likely be seeking a first-round pick and something else but should be willing to pay down half of their portion of his contract ($4.725MM) which should give them a long list of suitors.

Xhekaj is an odd fit.  He’s also a left-shot blueliner and hasn’t fared great when moved to his off-side.  He’s certainly cheaper ($1.3MM through next season) and has more club control but at most, he might crack the third pairing.  He’s also a hard player to peg value-wise.  I think there are teams who don’t view him as an NHL player and others who would pay a fairly high price tag given his physicality and a decent track record of offense at the lower levels.  It probably doesn’t get to the level of Provorov’s likely price tag but I don’t feel he’s the type of blueliner they should be going after.

mikeyziggy: With the latest update on Landeskog it certainly sounds like if it doesn’t happen this season it doesn’t happen at all. What team is going to take on his contract to free the Avs from the cap hit in the event he can’t play? That $7mil could go a long way in helping fix some of the problems up front.

For those who didn’t see the news earlier this week, the latest update on Gabriel Landeskog certainly wasn’t an ideal one.  Head coach Jared Bednar indicated that Landeskog had a setback as he continues to try to work his way back from a knee injury that has kept him out for the last couple of years.  However, Landeskog is still hoping to suit up at some point this season which doesn’t help the Avalanche in terms of the cap as they can’t spend that money on other players if they think he’s going to play before the playoffs begin.

Let’s use the scenario that says he can’t come back.  Frankly, that feels more and more like the probable scenario.  The Avs don’t necessarily have to trade him as they can just put him on LTIR and spend up to $7MM over the cap on their roster.  (It’s not quite that simplistic and involves optimal timing of placements and whatnot but that’s the gist of it.)  That’s not an ideal scenario to be in as it prevents them from banking in-season space and means any bonuses earned get charged the following season but it’s not as if that $7MM is unusable.

But the other option of trading the contract probably isn’t a great one either.  Landeskog still has four years left on his contract after this one.  That’s a long time for a team to willingly carry a permanent LTIR deal and the one team that was willing to do so (Arizona) is now in Utah with an owner willing to spend so they won’t be doing that anymore.  Is there a team that knows they’re going to be well below the cap through at least the 2028-29 season so that taking on Landeskog’s contract is a low-risk proposition?  I’m not sure there is, to be honest.  Maybe when there are two years left it’s an option but I don’t see the Avs shedding that deal anytime soon if his playing days are numbered.

FeeltheThunder: In Tampa, Nick Paul was on the second line with Hagel and Cirelli, the line was very successful at controlling puck possession at 5-on-5 and was one of the most dominant lines in the NHL over the first couple of games of the season. However, since Paul was put back on the third line at center, his possession numbers at 5-on-5 are starting to look like last year. Over the two-game span against the Wild and the Jets, Paul had an 18.58 on-ice expected goals for percentage share (xGF%) at 5-on-5, ranked lowest on the roster. Furthermore, his 33.62 on-ice shots for percentage (SF%) ranked last on the team. In other words, with Paul on the ice, the Lightning gave up two shots for one they produced. As management starts to think about in-season acquisitions, a third-line scoring forward should be at the top of the list for Tampa especially since Mikey Eyssimont isn’t producing (he’s a better fourth line guy) though Mitchell Chaffee is playing solid; who would you think be some valid options for that third line to help Paul and Chaffee?

I wouldn’t be too concerned about a rough couple of games on a different trio (though admittedly, things didn’t get much better in their last outing).  When you’re shifting to a different role on a different line at a different position, you get a bit of leeway.  That said, there needs to be improvement on that front relatively soon.

As for potential pickups, I think Tampa Bay would prefer to shop on the rental market given that they already have nearly $82MM on the books for next season, per PuckPedia.  I suspect GM Julien BriseBois would like to leave himself some flexibility to try to make a splash again next summer so a one-and-done acquisition would help make that happen.  With that in mind, I’ll limit my picks here to the rental market.

The first name that comes to mind isn’t necessarily a scorer.  I could see Luke Kunin making sense for them.  He could plausibly play the role Paul has now, allowing Paul to move back to the second line.  Kunin also plays with an edge physically, an element they lost when they moved Tanner Jeannot to Los Angeles over the summer.  Assuming they don’t have too many injuries between now and the deadline, the Lightning should be able to absorb his $2.75MM AAV in full as the Sharks don’t have any retention slots remaining.  If they have ample cap space, perhaps they aim higher in San Jose and try for Mikael Granlund ($5MM) which would add some offensive upside to the bottom six and again, probably allow Paul to move up.

As for other options, if Nashville can’t get out of its tailspin and winds up selling, Gustav Nyquist would add some pop on the wing if the plan is to keep Paul down the middle.  If Buffalo finds itself selling again, Jordan Greenway would add some size and scoring potential on that trio as well.  Meanwhile, if they want to pivot the third line into more of an outright checking line, someone like Joel Armia could be a low-cost flyer with some playoff experience.

@SakariL89761: When teams ’paper’ down players to the AHL or ’bank’ cap space, does it affect the players financially and if so, can the union stop it in the next CBA?

If the player is on a two-way contract, yes, it affects them financially as they’d receive their AHL salary for the day over their NHL salary, a difference of several thousand dollars.  If they’re on a one-way deal, the player actually saves a bit of money as there is no escrow taken off when the player is in the minors.

I’m not sure there’s a great way to stop it.  Frankly, I’m not certain the NHLPA would necessarily want to stop it.  If you put a cap on the number of assignments to the minors (like MLB did to try to cut down on the roster churning for optionable pitchers a couple of years ago), you could wind up taking away opportunities from deserving players later in the year if they’re ‘out of options’ so to speak as a team won’t want to call up a player they can’t send down anymore.

Meanwhile, some of the opportunities created for the players on the fringes of the roster are because teams can do the paper transactions.  In essence, their final roster spot only costs part of the $775K minimum salary.  But if you can’t shuffle the players, how many of those teams just won’t bother to carry the extra body?  (Or how many might not be able to afford it?)  Now you might be taking away opportunities for players in the minors, even if they’re only on the NHL roster part-time.

In a cap system that’s pretty restrictive, I can’t see there being any desire from teams to put any restrictions on this and with the NHLPA likely realizing that changing the system will negatively affect some members as well, I can’t see it being a high-priority item for them in CBA talks when they potentially get underway next year.

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