PHR Mailbag: Tkachuk, Blackhawks, Dobson, Red Wings, Jets, Kings

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include talks on what Chicago and Detroit could try to do this offseason plus a center option for the Jets that they haven’t explored yet.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in our last two mailbag columns.

Gmm8811: What would it take for the Blues to pry Tkachuk away from Ottawa? Kyrou and what else?

The short answer would be an awful lot.  I don’t see any reason why the Senators would move Brady Tkachuk.  But if they did, they would want someone with some grit.  The power forward nature of his game is a big part of his value and with all due respect to Jordan Kyrou who is a strong player, that particular element is not in his toolbox.

The other challenge with Kyrou as the foundation is that his money basically matches Tkachuk’s.  This might seem a little odd as matching money is normally a good thing.  In a case of a player for a player plus some future assets, that’s normally perfect.  But Ottawa isn’t taking an add-on of a first-round pick and a prospect.  No, they would want some other NHL-established talent.

Jake Neighbours would have to be in there at a minimum as the power forward piece.  I would think they’d want another core piece from that age group, maybe Philip Broberg.  Remember, for a ‘unicorn’ type of player, the price has to really hurt.  But those two make over $8MM now (and will make much more than that in 2026-27).  To keep matching money, the Sens would then need to include or offload at least some of that money, possibly further increasing the ask.  And round and round we go to the point where it’s simply not feasible.

There is probably only a handful of players in the league that Ottawa would trade Tkachuk for.  The Sens are on the rise; trading your captain who plays a pivotal role as you’re just emerging from the rebuild is a tactic that is very unlikely to happen.  And if it did happen, they’d want a similar-value core piece back, not a package.  I don’t think there’s a buildable fit here.

tucsontoro1: Put on your Kyle Davidson hat for a minute.

Who do I target in FA?

Ekblad, Marner, Bennett?

Davidson opted to spread the money around last summer on short-term contracts for veterans to help raise the floor of the group and lead them through what was likely to be a turbulent season.  They didn’t do the former but it was indeed another turbulent season.  But that aside, there’s light at the end of the tunnel.  The prospect pool is well-stocked, a good group of youngsters is coming, and Jeff Blashill is a decent coach which is an upgrade on what they had last year.  Things are looking up.

This makes it the time for Davidson to strike.  They have nearly $30MM of cap space per PuckPedia with their only pricey RFA of note looking like a near-lock to be non-tendered (Philipp Kurashev).  The young core group will get a lot more expensive over time but even so, they have the financial flexibility to go and try to buy a core piece on the open market.  It will probably require an overpayment given that they’re probably still a bit away from coming out of the rebuild but when the acquisition cost is zero, it’s justifiable.

Basically, the easiest way to answer the question is this.  Is the free agent a core player and projects to be one for years to come?  If the answer is yes, the Blackhawks will probably be calling.

Of the three you listed, Mitch Marner feels like the most likely to potentially sign.  Chicago is a big market which he’s accustomed to but the spotlight won’t be on him as much in that market compared to Toronto.  Connor Bedard is a solid running mate to potentially partner with or have Marner be the catalyst of a second line to help elevate some of the up-and-coming core group.  There’s a compelling case to make although a lot of teams will have compelling cases to make if he reaches the open market next month.

tucsontoro1: With the Hawks having the second-worst GA this season, don’t they target at least one solid d-man in free agency?

In theory, yes.  The point from the last question applies to defensemen too.  If there’s a long-term core player out there, I expect Davidson to try to sign him.

How many core defenders are out there though?  Aaron Ekblad would be a good fit – they could turn around and flip Connor Murphy and have youngsters Artyom Levshunov and Sam Rinzel apprentice behind him for a little while and then as Ekblad gets a bit older, move him down the depth chart.  But can they make the best pitch when there will undoubtedly be more win-now options available?  (This is a question that applies basically to any core guy.)

Ivan Provorov and Vladislav Gavrikov are solid on the left side.  Team one of them up with Alex Vlasic and that side of the back end definitely looks better.

But if we’re talking about key defenders that would move the needle in a real way, that’s about it.  The leading point-getter among UFA blueliners is Matt Grzelcyk.  Ryan Lindgren is coming off a quieter year but can be a fourth defender.  Cody Ceci, Brent Burns, and Dante Fabbro are the next-best options on the right side – a player who was moved in a salary cap dump less than a year ago, a 40-year-old, and a player who was on waivers after no one wanted to trade for him earlier in the season.  These are good, useful players, but I doubt it’s the caliber you were thinking of with this question.

I’m sure Davidson will try to add a key blueliner on the open market but it’s a pretty small pool to try to draw from.

breakaway: If the Islanders draft Schaefer, do they look to trade Dobson and what could they get in return for him?

I’ve seen this idea out there and while I can track the logic, I don’t really agree with it.  Adding Matthew Schaefer to the roster does not make Noah Dobson redundant.  This is not a roster full of puck-moving defensemen by any stretch.  Beyond Adam Boqvist who is more of a depth piece, Dobson is the only other proven one in that category they have with any sort of meaningful NHL experience.  He and Schaefer can absolutely co-exist, especially since they play separate sides of the ice.

I wonder if adding Schaefer might make them move one of their lefties, however.  Adam Pelech’s $5.75MM price tag is a bit on the high side although with the way the free agent market could go, it might be viewed as an asset this time next month.  Alexander Romanov is a pending restricted free agent with arbitration rights like Dobson.  Keeping them would push their back end spending past the $30MM range.  But if one of Pelech or Romanov were to be moved, the remaining one, Schaefer, and Isaiah George could comprise the top three on the left side on opening night, keeping the cap charge a little more reasonable along the way.

Coming up with a trade value for Dobson isn’t easy.  Don’t get me wrong, his trade value is quite high.  But I have no idea what direction the Islanders are going here under new GM Mathieu Darche.  To me, I think they need to rebuild.  And if they opted to move Dobson in that situation, I think two first-round picks, a top prospect, and some sort of salary offset (ideally a defenseman) is attainable.  But if they’re not rebuilding (and if I had to guess today, this would be my pick of the route they take), now you’re looking at more of a player-for-player type of swap.  Maybe a two-for-one with a top-four blueliner and a key forward coming the other way with both players being signed or under club control for the long haul.  Going for a short-term veteran or two wouldn’t make sense.

With each scenario, the potential suitors vary considerably with a very strong return coming in either approach.  But I don’t think drafting Schaefer would push Dobson out, not unless Dobson’s contract demands ultimately have Darche leaning toward trading him.

Thefiend313: With Steve Yzerman under pressure from Detroit Red Wings fans, do you think he can pull off a blockbuster move and sign Mitch Marner?

Thefiend313: What do you think the Red Wings will target once free agency starts: Mitch Marner, John Tavares, Vladislav Gavrikov, or someone else?

Thefiend313: What does Steve Yzerman need to accomplish for the Red Wings to contend for the playoffs?

Let’s start with Marner.  Do I think Yzerman will target him?  Of course.  I expect somewhere around two-thirds of the league to at least passively kick the tires.  Detroit would be a tier above that and they have the money to afford him outright (more than $21MM per PuckPedia) without needing to clear out or offset money somewhere else.  That’s a good thing as not every team has that.  But if I’m Marner, the marquee UFA in this class, the Red Wings don’t feel like the most compelling team to sign with.  If I want to win now, they’re not a team to consider.  If I want top dollar and don’t care about short-term success, I can probably get the same money or more out of Chicago or Utah (or even Anaheim), teams that would appear to have a clearer trajectory to long-term success.  Marner leaving his hometown team to sign with a non-playoff division rival would be quite something but that doesn’t feel like a particularly likely scenario.

I’ll use a similar answer to the second question as I did for Chicago as it’s the same philosophy.  You need to get better and you have a lot of money with an RFA group that isn’t going to cost much.  It’s an even cleaner one for Detroit though.  While a short-term veteran doesn’t necessarily make sense for the Blackhawks, it does for the Red Wings who are indeed trying to win now, they just haven’t had much success at that lately.  So the question is basically this.  Is the player a core piece?  If the answer is yes, Yzerman will probably be targeting him.  In a perfect world, a viable second center emerges, potentially allowing them to flip one of J.T. Compher or Andrew Copp whose terms remaining on their contracts aren’t as concerning now for other teams to acquire.  But I doubt Yzerman would be too picky position-wise.  If there’s an upgrade, take it; it’s as simple as that.

As for what he needs to accomplish to be a playoff threat (that’s as far as I’d go, not a contender), they need a top-four upgrade on the back end.  You could sell me on two top-four additions if they want to ease Axel Sandin-Pellikka into the mix.  But you just saw the last answer about Chicago; getting two in this market would be tough.  Another legitimate scoring threat would help as well.  Patrick Kane coming back would help but another one on top of that, basically to fill the role that Vladimir Tarasenko was signed to fill last season.  Defensive improvements should get their roster near the middle of the pack in goals allowed and one more top-six threat might get the offense near the middle of the pack.  That should be enough to get them in the mix.  Not a lot of teams can add or re-sign that much talent in one summer though so this won’t be easy for Yzerman to accomplish.

Cla23: IMO, Winnipeg Jets seem to have a #2C in Gabriel Vilardi; he was great at faceoffs in the playoffs (I know it a small sample).

For them, it will be impossible to sign or trade for a #2C, so what real chance do they have to acquire a legitimate top-line winger?  Or, do they re-sign Ehlers as well?  Or let Lambert, Barlow, etc try to shine?

Since the Blues targeted Jets star players in the first round, should they try to trade for Rempe and sign Brendan Lemieux in free agency?  I think they should, at least no one will mess with them and besides, it would be fun to watch.

Vilardi is a natural center going back to his days in junior but there’s a reason he doesn’t play the position much in the NHL.  He’s a better fit on the wing than down the middle.  His career faceoff numbers (46.9% on nearly 1,200 draws) is a more useful sample size than going 31-18 in the playoffs and given his injury past, I don’t think he’s viewed as a real candidate for the role.  There’s a reason they rarely go to this and have tried basically every other option out there instead of this one before going to it in the postseason.

But you raise a key point.  Winnipeg has tried several times to fill the second center spot behind Mark Scheifele and they’ve not yet done so with much success.  While it’s possible they sign one this summer (maybe Jonathan Toews if he wants to play in his hometown), it’s probably not probable.  So, would it make more sense to sign a top-line winger and move Vilardi over?  It’s not the worst idea in the world depending on what has made Winnipeg so hesitant to put him there in the first place.

That said, I’d be surprised if Nikolaj Ehlers re-signs.  I don’t see Marner going there and with Kyle Connor extension-eligible this summer, I don’t know if they’d want to risk driving his price tag up with a very pricey winger signing.  Brock Boeser is also out there and could be a fit but that’s about it for top-line wingers that are available.  I’m not overly confident that they have the trade chips to make that type of splash on the trade front, especially with GM Kevin Cheveldayoff not being the most aggressive out there.

I could see them trying to grab someone like Pius Suter with the hopes that a full-time top-six role could allow him to come close to maintaining his production from this season.  Then, in a couple of years when Colby Barlow might be ready to pass him on the depth chart (I think he’ll spend most of this year in the minors), the two can flip roles and maybe it works out.  I’d like to see Brad Lambert get more of an NHL look but he didn’t help his cause in Manitoba this season.  At this point (before all the spending happens), I don’t think they’re viewing him as a full-time regular with the big club.

As for Rempe, could a team afford to risk playing him regularly in the playoffs given his reputation and penchant for taking penalties?  The Rangers certainly didn’t think so two years ago and at this point, he looks more like a fringe NHL player than a regular.  As for Lemieux, he walked away from a one-way deal in Carolina to go play in Switzerland and then didn’t record a point in 15 games with HC Davos.  He has another year left on his deal and at this point, his days of being an NHL player appear to be behind him.  And generally speaking, with a penalty killing group that hasn’t been great the last two years, is adding a pair of players with track records of bad penalties a great idea?  Winnipeg needs a fourth line with more of an identity after it being more of a patchwork group in recent years but there’s a better way to do it than that.

bigalval: What do the Kings do in the offseason?

When this question first came up back in late April, I had them re-signing Vladislav Gavrikov and Andrei Kuzmenko and then bringing in another bottom-six player, similar to the Warren Foegele signing.  I also had them signing a backup goalie but I’ve flipped on that and feel they’ll at least give Erik Portillo a real shot at the number two job.  I think they’ll sign a top AHL goalie or a fringe NHL backup to provide a bit of insurance but keeping that number close to the league minimum might price them out of keeping David Rittich.

I’m a little less bullish on Gavrikov re-signing now.  With the dearth of quality UFA defensemen out there, his price tag feels likely to jump up and the closer he gets to the open market, the more tempting it’s going to be to test it.  But if they do lose him, they’re going to have to find a replacement even if it is easier said than done.  So I’ll amend the answer to say that re-signing or replacing Gavrikov will be on the list.

With a little over $21MM in room, per PuckPedia, new GM Ken Holland has the ability to try to consolidate his spending into one premium pickup if he wants and then use some cheaper players to round out the roster.  I think there’s a better chance now of them at least trying that before pivoting to moves like re-signing Kuzmenko and another Foegele-type addition being fallback plans.  But barring one of the top guys electing to go there, most of my original answer with the forwards like still stands with an eye on having a couple million in cap space available to start the season, allowing them to bank enough in-season space to have the ability to make a splash on the trade front closer to the trade deadline.

Photo courtesy of Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images.