Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include assessing San Jose’s busy last few weeks, early offseason winners and losers, and much more. If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag while we have one more to run from our last callout for questions next weekend.
letsgonats: The Capitals seemed to come in second place for the Ehlers sweepstakes. If McMichael moves to 3C, who is the 2nd line LW and 3rd line RW? It seems that the Caps trade a lot for Sourdif so he is given a 4th line winger slot. Do the Caps pull a trade we are not thinking about or do they take two from Beauvillier, Frank, Milano, Miroshnichenko, Cristall, Trineyev, or Lapierre and only a few have AHL options so waiver or trades for the others?
Before I answer your scenario, I’m going to throw another one out there. What if they flip McMichael and Pierre-Luc Dubois, a player who has played on the wing before? I could see them giving that a shot at some point as well, keeping both players in the top six. In your McMichael as the third-line center scenario, I think Ryan Leonard is on the right wing, allowing them to continue to ease him in. Right now, I think Anthony Beauvillier gets the spot on the second line to start at least. In a perfect world, a youngster forces his way into that spot but better to be conservative in early forecasting. And I agree on Justin Sourdif; at a minimum, he’s on the fourth line with Nic Dowd and Brandon Duhaime.
I don’t see Ivan Miroshnichenko or Bogdan Trineyev realistically pushing for a roster spot. The former is waiver-exempt while the latter will need waivers. Hendrix Lapierre makes it since he’s waiver-eligible and won’t get through without being claimed. I’d have him as the 13th forward which isn’t ideal development-wise. It wouldn’t shock me if Sonny Milano and Andrew Cristall are battling for the 3LW spot. If Cristall is ready, Milano lands on waivers and if not, he starts in Hershey. That leaves Ethen Frank who I think they’d be comfortable keeping as the 14th forward, something they can afford with their current cap space. That would push Dylan McIlrath to waivers but he has cleared several times before and should again.
With some waiver-exempt pieces, there isn’t as much of a logjam as it might seem. Honestly, I could see them sniffing around on another forward should one become available and if that pushes Frank to waivers, I think they’d be okay with that.
SirCobblestone: With the addition of the Sharks on defense (even if it’s not done I assume) and the potential add of Misa with Dickinson and Askarov, where do you see the Sharks land with a top six composed of Celebrini, Misa, Smith, and Eklund at Wing and Toffoli with Orlov and Klingberg. That should be a good add on defense.
You’re missing a top-six forward in there which I imagine will be Alexander Wennberg, at least until he’s traded as a rental center at some point in the season, allowing one of Will Smith or Michael Misa to get some time in at their natural position. That group has a lot of upside but teams with that many youngsters in prominent roles are going to struggle. There’s just no way around that with four entry-level forwards in the top six.
As for the defense, it has definitely improved with the additions of Dmitry Orlov, Nick Leddy, and John Klingberg but that’s a low bar to clear as San Jose’s back end was really bad last year. The problem is that it’s still not very good. Klingberg is a question mark defensively and Leddy is coming off a really rough year. Orlov is overpaid but decent at least. If Sam Dickinson is added to this group (they’re going to need to move out more than just Henry Thrun for that to happen), there will be some growing pains defensively although he’d give them a big lift offensively with Klingberg. This is the definition of a patchwork back end; of the seven they have signed now on one-way deals, only one (Orlov) is signed beyond this season. It’s better but this is still not a playoff-worthy group.
As for the goaltending, Yaroslav Askarov is the big wild card. Like many, I have high expectations for him over the long haul but for the upcoming season, there are going to be some growing pains as he adjusts to being the starter at the NHL level for the first time while playing behind a defense that still isn’t particularly strong. Alex Nedeljkovic is a serviceable backup but I expect his numbers to nosedive next season given the situation.
So, where do I see San Jose next season? Probably in the same spot where they were last season, in the basement of the Pacific Division. Things are definitely looking up and they’re not going to be down there for much longer but this is going to be another season where process and development are more important than results. They’re not ready to emerge from the rebuild yet and their activity this summer suggests GM Mike Grier is fully aware of that.
SpeakOfTheDevils: Let’s play hypothetical and say the Devils DO trade Dougie Hamilton, what kind of return could we be looking at??? And likeliest trading partners????
I’m going to go with the second question first here. I could see Toronto being in there as they could use a top offensive threat. Detroit has done next to nothing to improve a back end that certainly struggled last year so they’d be in the mix I’d think. I’m sure Dallas would love to swing that but the term remaining would be an option; I think they’re more of a fit for Erik Karlsson if Pittsburgh pays down a good chunk of his deal. Buffalo has been searching for an impact right-shot defender for ages now but it would surprise me if he’s on Hamilton’s list of 10 teams he’d accept a trade to.
Several teams can afford him but at the stage of the rebuild they’re in, they’re probably not a good fit. Others like Calgary and Winnipeg don’t seem like teams on his trade list either. And this is the problem; between Hamilton’s trade protection, cap hit, and performance, there’s not a great market for his services. I don’t even think Detroit would be on his yes list so we’re down to Toronto and if New Jersey wants to pay down some of the contract, maybe Dallas.
So, the short answer to your question in terms of a return is nothing that would justify trading Hamilton. If Pittsburgh trades Karlsson, they’ll be able to get positive value but probably nothing of consequence. Salary ballast, maybe a second-round pick, and perhaps something else. That’s something, but nothing to get excited about. Is Hamilton going to be able to bring back more that with three years left on his deal? Maybe if it’s more of a player-for-player straight-up swap (if Morgan Rielly was willing to waive his trade protection, maybe there’s a foundation of a trade there) but otherwise, I wouldn’t be counting on it. So, something around what I think Karlsson would get would be my answer to the first question.
Hamilton managed to be healthier last season but also dropped below 20 minutes a night which, for a $9MM blueliner, is a little concerning. With Johnathan Kovacevic out for a bit to start the season, I don’t expect them to seriously consider trading him. The Devils want to stay in the playoffs and Hamilton is a better insurance policy than whatever bits and pieces they could get in a trade.
tucsontoro1: Is it time for the league to do something substantial about tanking?
The Blackhawks are clearly in “full tank mode” for the 25–26 season.
Let me answer your question with a question – how would the league do that? The NHL has already lowered the draft odds and it hasn’t served as a deterrent. They’ve also put in something saying a team can’t advance their pick in the lottery more than twice in five years, a change that hasn’t garnered much attention yet since it hasn’t come into play.
The NBA gives equal odds for the bottom three finishers (and fourth is only a bit lower) but that didn’t stop teams from tanking for Cooper Flagg. And the end result for two drafts now has been a team with odds of 3% or less jumping up to the top spot (Dallas from 11th to take Flagg and Atlanta from 10th to take Zaccharie Risacher). Will that stop teams from tanking in basketball next season? Probably not.
MLB started drawing for the first six selections back in 2023 instead of going by reverse standings while also putting some restrictions on teams drafting in the lottery back-to-back times. Did that stop the Athletics from tanking for three straight years? Nope, even though they were slotted 11th in last week’s draft as a result of the rule changes. The White Sox were terrible last year but knew going in that they couldn’t pick in the lottery even if they had the worst record; clearly, it wasn’t a deterrent that prevented them from tanking. Meanwhile, there are some overtly tanking teams there this season too (including the White Sox again, no less). And the NFL still goes by reverse standings with teams already seemingly jockeying themselves for first overall.
Sure, the NHL could flatten the odds more or put more restrictions on picking in the top five, for example. But in the grand scheme of things, if that happened, does anyone think Chicago or San Jose would change course? In a system where top young talents are distributed through a draft system, teams are going to try to position themselves to have the best chance at getting one of those if they know they’re not in a spot to realistically contend for a playoff spot. This strategy, one that exists in each of the big four professional sports, isn’t going anywhere.
SkidRowe: What can the Bruins do? They need scoring and have only $2 million in cap space. Would you trade Zacha, Poitras, Mittelstadt, Minten, or Korpisalo?
I’m going to say no to trading Matthew Poitras or Fraser Minten. Might they fetch a capable veteran to help in the short term? I think they would. But they’re not going to bring back enough of a difference-maker to materially improve Boston’s fortunes. These are young centers with some promise and that’s the type of player they need to be keeping around as longer-term fits.
If Boston is confident that Michael DiPietro can be a capable NHL backup, moving Joonas Korpisalo makes sense in theory. Jeremy Swayman can probably handle a similar workload to last season, meaning DiPietro would only need to make 25 starts or so. The question here, however, is what market is there for a goalie right now, especially one with a cap charge of $3MM (not including the $1MM Ottawa is covering)? He could fit in Edmonton but they can’t afford him. Same with Vegas. Maybe Carolina but is he demonstrably better than their tandem? I like the idea of trading Korpisalo more than the potential of it actually happening but if it did, that’s something they could reinvest into their offense.
The other two are a little more interesting. Casey Mittelstadt isn’t a rental, he has a track record of some offensive success, and he’s a center. Given the immense demand for capable middlemen right now, I think there would be a good market for him. On the other hand, Boston’s center depth isn’t great and I’d like to see how he fares under new head coach Marco Sturm first. If the new system helps get him going, he could be more of a potential longer-term fit.
If Boston is comfortable with deploying one of the two young centers on a regular basis (or playing one of Sean Kuraly or Mikey Eyssimont on the third line), Pavel Zacha could be expendable. At $4.75MM, he’s someone some teams can afford and while he’s coming off a quieter year, 47 points is still decent; it was good enough for a share of third in team scoring. But it begs the question of why Boston, a team that needs firepower, would move one of their better point-getters from a year ago? Maybe if there’s a winger that’s signed or controllable for longer than Zacha (a pending UFA), there’s a lateral swap to be made but otherwise, I’d reassess closer to the trade deadline.
Despite Boston’s spending spree this summer, I don’t think they’ve done enough to get back to the playoff picture. Moving one of those pieces for a bit more firepower on the wing isn’t going to change that. So, personally, I wouldn’t be making any win-now trades unless this group proves me wrong and shows it’s worthy of some moves to help them in the second half of the season. Otherwise, Zacha could be a very useful rental for someone, yielding the Bruins a nice future asset in return.
Pearlo: Do you think Toronto is sort of mailing it in this year with the prospect of McDavid being available next year?
By all accounts, Connor McDavid wants to see Edmonton put its best foot forward to show that they’re worth re-signing with, even as a team that just made it to the Stanley Cup Final for two years. For any team, Toronto or otherwise, to sandbag a summer’s worth of activity and not put their best foot forward to try to win seems counterintuitive, doesn’t it? Yes, he’s a GTA native so there will be some speculative dot connecting but honestly, I don’t think the odds are all that high that McDavid would leave Edmonton. And if he did, there would be a lot of suitors for him.
Between those two factors, what are the odds that he’d sign with Toronto? I’d peg McDavid testing free agency at 10% and some other prominent teams will be interested so best case might be 5%? I can’t see GM Brad Treliving mailing in an offseason’s worth of activity for a one-in-20 shot (on the optimistic side) of getting McDavid.
I’m not a big fan of Toronto’s offseason activity (it’s hard to be when you lose a top talent in Mitch Marner) but I don’t think they’re mailing it in either. Treliving spoke of changing the team’s DNA after the season and it looks like there’s a focus on getting some better defensive players and deepening the depth along the way. They won’t be as much of a high-octane attack moving forward but they’re shifting toward a playing style that might serve them better in the playoffs where they have to get through Florida at some point in the first two rounds. That’s not necessarily mailing it in, that’s just a shift in team philosophy.
MoneyBallJustWorks: Not counting the Panthers, which team do you think has had the best offseason to date (noting it’s early) and which team have you been disappointed with so far?
I really like what Utah has done. They took advantage of their stockpile of young depth to get JJ Peterka from Buffalo, a legitimate top-line scoring threat and then signed him for $7.7MM per season, a price tag that is fair market value now and should flip to team-friendly before long. Brandon Tanev gives them some more grit in the bottom six and someone who can help on the penalty kill, Nate Schmidt is a stable defender to help stabilize their bottom pairing, and Vitek Vanecek gives them some goalie insurance with the uncertainty surrounding Connor Ingram. They didn’t lose too much of consequence and their young core looks poised to continue to improve while getting a shot in the arm with Peterka. Montreal would also be in that territory of a strong offseason, adding Noah Dobson and Zach Bolduc, two players they’re hoping become part of their long-term core while not losing anyone from that core to do so.
There are three teams that come to mind in the disappointing category for two different reasons. The Kings had lots of cap space to play with but couldn’t land anyone of much consequence, instead spreading their money on decent but largely overpriced depth veterans while losing one of their top blueliners in Vladislav Gavrikov. They’re a deeper team now but are they better for all they spent? Needing to ask that puts them in this spot. Boston’s in the same boat. For a team that can’t score, giving Tanner Jeannot five years at $3.2MM and adding a pair of fourth-line centers in Mikey Eyssimont and Sean Kuraly for $3.3MM combined seems like a bit of an odd way to fix that. I liked the Viktor Arvidsson addition and think he’ll bounce back but I’d have rather seen them add another top-six type of player than focus on adding more physicality. That would have been a more useful way to use those funds.
The other disappointment is Columbus for their relative inaction. Yes, Ivan Provorov got an eye-popping deal but after striking out on Dobson, they didn’t have much of a choice with the dearth of blueliners available. They’re not noted here because of that. They’re noted here because they haven’t done much else. They gave up a good prospect to take on a struggling Charlie Coyle and a long-term overpayment in Miles Wood and, well, that’s about it so far. They’ve tried to make a bigger splash but came up short. For a team that just missed the playoffs last season though, they haven’t done enough to truly improve their chances.
Photo courtesy of Tom Horak-USA TODAY Sports.