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NHL Entry Draft

Avalanche Prepared To Pick Fourth If Senators Fold

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The first fireworks of the upcoming NHL Draft may show up at pick #4. When the Ottawa Senators acquired Matt Duchene from the Colorado Avalanche, part of the substantial package was a top-ten protected 2018 first-round pick. The terms of the deal afforded the Senators a choice between trading this year’s pick or next year’s pick to Colorado if the pick landed within the top ten spots. Finishing the season with the second-worst record in the league, Ottawa was obviously locked in to the top ten. Even after bad luck dropped them to fourth overall in the NHL Draft Lottery, GM Pierre Dorion confirmed that they would hold on to the pick this year and defer to the 2019 first-rounder.

However, that was back in April and things change. It seems more likely than ever that Erik Karlsson and/or Mike Hoffman will be traded away from Ottawa this off-season and that doesn’t bode well for a Duchene extension either. There also continue to be frustrations over the management of owner Eugene Melnyk and the fiscal future of the organization. Ottawa seems far from a free agent destination right now and no closer to turning around one of the worst records in the NHL. The initial Stanley Cup odds for next season reflect this, as the Senators at 100/1 odds are alone in last place. It’s understandable for public relations purposes that the Sens keep this year’s #4, both to add an exciting new prospect and to all but confirm to fans that the outlook for next season is better this season. It may not be the smart move though.

There is a trio of top prospects in the draft this year: defenseman Rasmus Dahlin and forwards Andrei Svechnikov and Filip Zadina. After that, there is no consensus on the next-best player. In fact, the fourth overall pick more or less marks the beginning of a lesser tier of prospects; not exactly a power position in 2018. Next year, the Senators are almost certainly going to miss the playoffs and will be a lottery team with a chance to land in the top three with a lucky draw. According to odds makers, they are also the favorite to finish 31st, which would give them the best odds at the first overall pick – highly-touted franchise center Jack Hughes – and would mean that they could fall no farther than fourth again. There is risk in giving up a pick as high as #4 this year, but there is also substantial risk in not giving it away, blowing up the roster, and simply hoping for a better finish next year. The pain that the organization and the fans would feel about losing #1 after another brutal season would be far worse than giving up a non-consensus top player at #4 this year. The mounting pressure of that very real possibility could force the Senators to give in and surrender the 2018 pick.

The Avalanche know this and are remaining vigilant. The Denver Post’s Mike Chambers caught up with Colorado Director of Scouting Alan Hepple, who says the team knows what direction they would go in if they wind up with #4 this year after all. Per Chambers, the Senators can wait all the way until they are on the clock to make the pick to instead complete the trade this year. Hepple doesn’t think that will be the case, but the Avs are prepared in case it is. They certainly wouldn’t mind the spot, as the team nabbed defensive phenom Cale Makar in that same draft slot last year and would be happy to make a repeat performance. With their own pick at #16, Hepple says that the team will simply take the best player available, regardless of position, but at #4 they have identified a more pressing organizational need, as they did with the UMass puck-mover Makar last year.

If the first three picks go as expected and Ottawa isn’t thrilled by the next-best name on their draft board, they could crumble under the pressure of the potential repercussions: losing a higher pick next year. It could pay off or it could be a mistake in hindsight; there is no way to tell with a lot riding on the decision. However, if they do, Colorado is ready to jump in. It’s not the most likely outcome, but it remains a possibility, and an intriguing one, as draft day approaches.

Red Wings And Canadiens To Clash At The Draft

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Before the 2018-19 season even begins, there will be some conflict between divisional foes. The Montreal Canadiens and Detroit Red Wings are both coming off disappointing seasons and are looking to reinforce their franchises with their own high draft slots as well as acquired picks. Both teams are hoping to cash in on several picks in the first and second rounds to find multiple players that will grow to become regular NHLers. However, they may have to battle each other to do so.

The Athletic’s Craig Custance published an article this week about Detroit’s possible plans and potential targets for a trio of picks in the 30’s. His colleague Arpon Basu was quick to respond with his own article about Montreal’s potential marks with their two picks in the early second round. Basu also added that the two teams share similar organizational needs. Among them, both the Canadiens and Red Wings could use a top-flight center and defenseman in the pipeline.

With no suitable centers available when either team picks in the first round –  the Habs at #3 and the Wings at #6 – what those teams do early on could dictate their priorities in the early second. Many expect that Montreal cannot pass up the elite forward talent that is winger Filip Zadina. The Canadiens (or Red Wings) could reach for center Jesperi Kotkaniemi, but it is unlikely. They could also take a defenseman, as there are plenty of supremely talented names available in this draft. After Rasmus Dahlin presumably goes first overall, most consider Quinn Hughes to be the next best name. Of course, Detroit is the heavy favorite to take the University of Michigan product if he’s still on the board. If Montreal chose to steal him, it would be the first conflict between these two teams.

Things heat up even more later on though. Detroit has a second first-rounder at #30, courtesy of the Tomas Tatar trade with the Vegas Golden Knights. While this is a prime position for the Wings to trade out of, they could also simply make the pick. It is here that the Red Wings could beat the Canadiens to one of the top available centers. Both Custance and Basu list Ty Dellandrea as a prime target in the late first and early second, and Basu also offers Isac Lundestrom and Jacob Olofsson as candidates if either is still available. Then, in the second, Detroit picks again at #33, the pick they received from the Ottawa Senators through the New York Rangers in the Brendan Smith deal. So while the Habs get the first shot at selecting ahead of the Wings early in the first round, Detroit then has the next three consecutive picks ahead of Montreal. Here, it would be easy to see the Red Wings double up on defensemen, aiming for a more physical specimen. Both Custance and Basu tab K’Andre Miller as a likely target, while Basu also lists Mattias Samuelsson and, if he’s still there, Jared McIsaac. Both writers are also intrigued by the boom-or-bust talent of defenseman Ryan Merkley, another swift puck-mover like Hughes. Don’t rule out Detroit looking his way as well. Finally, Montreal gets their next shot at #35 and Detroit picks right after at #36. Montreal may again have to pick up the scraps at #38, the selection they landed from the Chicago Blackhawks along with Phillip Danault in the very favorable Tomas Fleischmann/Dale Weise trade in 2016.

Montreal also has picks #56 and #62 later in the second round, leaving open a very real opportunity that they could change this whole dynamic by packaging multiple second-rounders – in a draft that many feel is homogeneous in the #20  to #60 range – to move back into the first round and ahead of Detroit at #30. It would then be the Canadiens who could take the best available center or defenseman and put the Red Wings in a tough spot.

It’s always a good time to see two Original Six teams battle on the ice, but the war for position brewing between Detroit and Montreal in the upcoming draft could be just as fun to watch.

Complete 2018 Entry Draft Order

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With the Washington Capitals taking home the first Stanley Cup in franchise history last night, other teams around the league can finally get started on what will be a long offseason. June 15th will mark the opening of the first buyout window, while just a week later the first round of the NHL Entry Draft will get underway.

We knew where most of the selections would fall first round, but with the Capitals finding a way to overthrow the Vegas Golden Knights, we finally have the full order. It is:

  1. Buffalo Sabres
  2. Carolina Hurricanes
  3. Montreal Canadiens
  4. Ottawa Senators
  5. Arizona Coyotes
  6. Detroit Red Wings
  7. Vancouver Canucks
  8. Chicago Blackhawks
  9. New York Rangers
  10. Edmonton Oilers
  11. New York Islanders
  12. New York Islanders (from Calgary)
  13. Dallas Stars
  14. Philadelphia Flyers (from St. Louis)
  15. Florida Panthers
  16. Colorado Avalanche
  17. New Jersey Devils
  18. Columbus Blue Jackets
  19. Philadelphia Flyers
  20. Los Angeles Kings
  21. San Jose Sharks
  22. Ottawa Senators (from Pittsburgh)
  23. Anaheim Ducks
  24. Minnesota Wild
  25. Toronto Maple Leafs
  26. New York Rangers (from Boston)
  27. Chicago Blackhawks (from Nashville)
  28. New York Rangers (from Tampa Bay)
  29. St. Louis Blues (from Winnipeg)
  30. Detroit Red Wings (from Vegas)
  31. Washington Capitals
    ______________________It’s important to note that the draft lottery changes only the selections of the first round, meaning the non-playoff teams will select in reverse standings-order in rounds two through seven. Round two looks like this:
  32.  Buffalo Sabres
  33. Detroit Red Wings (from Ottawa)
  34. Florida Panthers (from Arizona)
  35. Montreal Canadiens
  36. Detroit Red Wings
  37. Vancouver Canucks
  38. Montreal Canadiens (from Chicago)
  39. New York Rangers
  40. Edmonton Oilers
  41. New York Islanders
  42. Carolina Hurricanes
  43. New York Islanders (from Calgary)
  44. Dallas Stars
  45. St. Louis Blues
  46. Washington Capitals (from Florida)
  47. Colorado Avalanche
  48. New York Rangers (from New Jersey)
  49. Columbus Blue Jackets
  50. Philadelphia Flyers
  51. Los Angeles Kings
  52. Toronto Maple Leafs (from San Jose)
  53. Pittsburgh Penguins
  54. Anaheim Ducks
  55. Arizona Coyotes (from Minnesota)
  56. Montreal Canadiens (from Toronto)
  57. Boston Bruins
  58. Colorado Avalanche (from Nashville)
  59. Tampa Bay Lightning
  60. Winnipeg Jets
  61. Vegas Golden Knights
  62. Montreal Canadiens (from Washington)

Mike Hoffman Trade Speculation Heats Up

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If you didn’t believe Darren Dreger when he told TSN 1200 yesterday that Mike Hoffman was likely to be traded before or during the June 22nd NHL Entry Draft, perhaps you’ll take another look after Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic was on the same radio station today explaining the situation surrounding the speedy winger.

From what I understand I think there’s a really strong chance that Hoffman gets dealt in the next couple of weeks here. But I think [the return] depends on the team you end up dealing with. Different teams have different assets, that if you’re [Senators GM] Pierre Dorion probably appeal to you. For example, let’s just pretend the Calgary Flames—who we know did reach out to Ottawa before the trade deadline about Mike Hoffman—you know if you’re Ottawa, you’ve got to look at Sam Bennett do you not? Is that not a desirable asset, hoping that you can turn the young man’s career around, and he’s a center? But if it’s another team it could be a younger player. I think it really depends on what team you end up finding a fit [with] in terms of the return.

At the very basic minimum, my understanding is that the Senators would want multiple assets back. Certainly not just a one-for-one.

Hoffman, 28, is coming off another 20-goal season and has two seasons left on his current contract. Able to bring speed and skill to any lineup, there will certainly be several suitors knocking down Dorion’s door to get a chance at him. For the Senators, trading him means giving up on the chemistry he seemed to build with Matt Duchene in the second half of the season, and attempting to rebuild with younger assets.

This summer could be one filled with fireworks for the Ottawa front office, as Erik Karlsson finds himself amid a hurricane of trade rumors as well. The superstar defenseman is heading into the final year of his current contract, and if the Senators can’t re-sign him quickly after July 1st the distraction might prove too much for a team trying to get back into the playoffs. Karlsson remains one of the top prizes on the trade market, but Hoffman doesn’t fall far behind.

Though teams have other options this summer with the free agent market looking like it will have players like James van Riemsdyk, James Neal and David Perron available, none are quite the style of player Hoffman is and will likely all demand longer contracts on the open market. For teams like the aforementioned Calgary Flames, he might seem like a much more appetizing option, even if he will cost multiple assets.

Ottawa is also facing a situation where they do not have a first-round pick next season, regardless of where it ends up. That’s thanks to the top-10 protection they placed on this year’s selection they sent Colorado for Duchene, which ended up landing at fourth-overall after the team struggled to find any success. It’s been a clear goal of the team to get back into the first round next season, as the team doesn’t look anywhere close to being a Stanley Cup contender and has never been able to afford quick fixes from the free agent market. Trading Hoffman and Karlsson though becomes a scary proposition when Colorado could potentially select first-overall in next year’s draft, and get to bring Jack Hughes (or another top prospect) in while Ottawa flounders at the bottom of the standings. Making a team that wins just enough to keep Colorado out of the top-10 may seem petty, but the pain from giving up a top pick can feel like too much to bear.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Tyler Weiss Commits To Nebraska-Omaha

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Less than a month before he will hear his name called at the NHL Entry Draft and learns where he may play his pro hockey, Tyler Weiss has announced where he will play his college hockey. The U.S. National Development Team product will play for the University of Nebraska-Omaha in 2018-19 and likely beyond.

Weiss is one of the more polarizing prospects in the upcoming draft. The Raleigh, North Carolina native is well-liked by all, but scouts differ on how they see his pro potential. For example, Corey Pronman of The Athletic saw Weiss play several times this season and has him ranked 66th in his final draft board, indicating that he could even be a second-round pick. On the other end of the spectrum, The Athletic colleague Scott Wheeler ranked Weiss 100th and The Draft Analyst’s Steve Kournianos ranked him 159th, suggesting that they instead see Weiss as a fourth- or fifth-round player. However, Kournianos had Weiss at 85th prior to this season and his production has been solid – 35 points in 58 games with the USNTDP – so it is the lanky forward’s lack of physical development likely driving down his value. Weiss stands 5’11”, but weighs less than 160 pounds. While he’s a strong skater and plays with good skill, with some scouts saying he has top-six NHL upside, his slight frame is apparent in his lack of any physical game or two-way ability and that is understandably a concern.

Yet, the college game is often the perfect track for smaller players who can both thrive in the fast, skilled level of play and concentrate on bulking up. At Omaha, Weiss will likely be looked upon immediately as one of the top players on the roster which should force him to focus on an all-around game and improving his on-ice presence. Whichever team selects Weiss this year should do so knowing that he is a long-term project, but also understanding the upside of his skill should his physical development catch up to his skating, hand, and brain.

Weiss is one of the great stories of the draft, fighting through his family’s financial struggles as a young kid and an untraditional hockey market to become a legitimate NHL prospect. The Athletic’s Sunaya Sapurji details Weiss’ background and more closely examines his draft status in this piece for further reading.

Draft Day Trade Rumors: O’Reilly, Hoffman, Coyotes, Maple Leafs

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Given the last-place finish of the Buffalo Sabres and the comments made by veteran leader Ryan O’Reilly at the end of the season, it would come as no surprise if the team was to trade away their best player not named Jack Eichel in an effort to build around Eichel and his fellow promising young players. Earlier today, TSN’s Darren Dreger spoke on the extensive demands that Buffalo GM Jason Botterill has for any return in an O’Reilly deal and, while he admitted that a deal is beginning to seem more likely, felt that it would take a lot of work for any team to make a fair offer in Botterill’s eyes. Dreger’s TSN colleague and The Athletic reporter Pierre LeBrun seems slightly more optimistic about the likelihood of a deal. LeBrun admits that O’Reilly likely wouldn’t mind returning to Buffalo, what with Casey Mittelstadt and Rasmus Dahlin likely in the fold next year and beyond, and the Sabres may not mind keeping him. However, LeBrun opines that if John Tavares re-signs with the New York Islanders prior to the NHL Draft, the top center on the free agent market will be Paul Stastny and many teams would prefer to search the trade market instead, where O’Reilly appears to be the top prize down the middle. Given the Sabres’ desire to add young pieces – picks and prospects – to develop alongside their new, young core, the draft would be the ideal time to strike on an O’Reilly trade. LeBrun goes so far as to say that the Montreal Canadiens have already discussed such a deal.

  • Another player who LeBrun feels is primed to be dealt during or around the upcoming draft is Ottawa Senators forward Mike Hoffman. Hoffman was a frequent member of the rumor mill through the most recent NHL Trade Deadline, but remained in Ottawa, at least for the time being. LeBrun says that those rumors are back in full swing and that he feels Hoffman will be traded at the draft. The Senators are not trending in the right direction and could benefit from both the multi-piece return that Hoffman would command and a reprieve from his $5.18MM salary over the next two seasons. LeBrun notes that the Los Angeles Kings and Calgary Flames were the top suitors for Hoffman at the deadline, but the St. Louis Blues and Florida Panthers were also among a plethora of teams pursuing a player who has flirted with 30 goals and 60 points for three years in a row.
  • The Carolina Hurricanes and Vancouver Canucks have already been rumored to be listening on offers for their top ten picks in the upcoming draft; add the Arizona Coyotes to that list as well. LeBrun states that the team has contemplated offers and would consider moving up or down on draft day, depending on how the picks fall. LeBrun believes that GM John Chayka has already spoken with the Montreal Canadiens about a swap involving picks #3 and #5, in case the Habs feel they can get the top center in the draft, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, later on and if the ’Yotes have a preferred choice between potential second overall picks Andrei Svechnikov and Filip Zadina. He also feels that there is a strong chance that they could trade down, given the depth of defensemen in the first round versus the desire of other teams to move up for top forwards. Look for Arizona to be busy on the draft floor later this month.
  • Another team that could be making moves on draft day are the Toronto Maple Leafs. In a mailbag for The Athletic, Jame Mirtle says to expect new GM Kyle Dubas to trade down, perhaps even multiple times, during the draft. When Dubas ran the draft for the Leafs in 2015 he employed this strategy, seen far more often in the NFL than NHL. Dubas traded down twice in order to collect multiple picks in later rounds. In a draft that many feel has a significant drop-off in talent after the first 20-odd picks to a tier that encompasses the next 60 or so picks, if Toronto feels that they don’t have a surefire option at 25th overall, they could swap with a team who has a specific player in mind and potentially grab multiple player of similar caliber later on.

Snapshots: Draft Rankings, Hartnell, Matthews

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The 2018 NHL Entry Draft is less than three weeks away, and teams and pundits around the league are finalizing their rankings. Today, TSN Director of Scouting Craig Button released his final list of the top-100 prospects eligible for the draft, and Rasmus Dahlin remains on top. That’s not unexpected, neither is Andrei Svechnikov or Filip Zadina at the number two and three spots respectively.

Where Button’s list may vary from others is where he lists his top two center prospects, Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Barrett Hayton. The two young pivots are fifth and seventh respectively, ahead of top defensive prospects like Noah Dobson, Evan Bouchard and Adam Boqvist. Button is also high on towering power forward Serron Noel (#13) and shifty winger Akil Thomas (#17). Joe Veleno, once expected to be selected at the very top of the first round, is way down at #28.

  • Scott Hartnell has begun training for the 2018-19 season, but as Adam Vingan of the Tennessean writes in his recent profile on the Nashville Predators free agent, if the 36-year old forward doesn’t find a contract he’s okay with that too. After registering 24 points in 62 games this season there is still reason to believe that Hartnell can be an effective bottom-six player, but it was just a year ago that he was bought out by the Blue Jackets and had to settle for a $1MM contract. If it is the end of his career, he’ll go out with 707 points in 1,249 games—a great career to say the least.
  • Toronto Maple Leafs fans were up in arms last night questioning what it could mean when James Mirtle of The Athletic reported that Auston Matthews had changed agencies. Matthews has followed his agent from CAA to the Orr Hockey Group, with many pointing to the fact that they also represent Connor McDavid and negotiated his league-leading eight-year $100MM extension. Matthews can sign an extension on July 1st, and could be the league’s next highly-paid young star. While it may not match the $12.5MM/year that McDavid will start earning next season, Jack Eichel’s eight-year $80MM deal is certainly within reach.

Canucks Are Content With Draft Preparation

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The 2018 NHL Draft is less than three weeks away. Relative to length of the season, that seems like no time at all. However, in real time, that leaves teams more than enough time to continue evaluating film, talking with scouts, and meeting with draft-eligible prospects. Yet the Vancouver Canucks and GM Jim Benning would be ready to go if the draft was tomorrow instead. Ben Kuzma of The Province reports that the Canucks’ draft board is set and they have no follow-up visits with prospects planned.

In speaking with Benning, Kuzma relays that the Canucks spoke with the majority of the prospects at the recent NHL Draft Combine and feel that they do not need to meet with any of those players a second time in Vancouver. Kuzma opines that this either means they have no idea who will be available when they pick in the first round at seventh overall – although there is no limit to the amount of pre-draft visits a team is allowed and the Canucks could easily cover their bases – or that they feel their draft profiles for all potential targets are complete and they simply have no desire to speak with the players further. Benning said that he was “satisfied with the process of watching them play, the interviews and the physical and medical testing”, but one would think that with 17 days left before draft day, that Vancouver would continue to evaluate players in any way possible.

The other possible reason that the Canucks seem disinterested in spending more time on the draft is that Benning has his eye on trading the pick. Although he told Kuzma that “We think we’re getting a real good player at No. 7 and we like those who have a chance to be there”, it’s also hard to ignore this report in combination with rumors of the team listening to offers on the selection. In particular, it was discussed by Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman that Vancouver could be the leader in the efforts to pry young stalwart defender Noah Hanifin out of Carolina. The Hurricanes could benefit from trading one of their many talented defensemen and a package including the seventh pick could be tantalizing. If the teams are deep in discussion about such a deal, Benning may not find further draft preparation to be a priority right now.

Only time will tell how it all plays out, but Kuzma’s report of the Canucks being content with their draft preparation this early in the process is certainly strange and worth keeping an eye on.

Montreal Has Tough Decision To Make At Upcoming Draft

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It’s well known that the Montreal Canadiens are looking for a franchise changing center. Usually when you have a top-three pick in a draft, a team can fill their biggest hole right there. However, that isn’t the case in the 2018 NHL Draft as the top of the draft is loaded with wingers and defenseman. Most of the centers are expected to go after the top-10. The Canadiens need help there as they have attempted to convert several players to the center position, including Jonathan Drouin and Alex Galchenyuk, but neither has made a successful conversion. If the team could add a couple of legitimate centers, it could hasten their turnaround.

Recent reports suggest the Canadiens have found themselves getting attached to Finnish center Jesperi Kotkaniemi, who most mock drafts have going after the 10th pick. Admittedly, he has risen up draft boards over the past year after a season in Finland’s top league, SM-liiga and put up 10 goals and 29 points as a 17-year-old among men (ironically he played the wing position there). In fact, at the combine this week, Kotkaniemi said that Canadiens were one of three teams to take him out to a steak dinner this past week. Assuming the Canadiens’ interest in him is genuine, the Canadiens have some critical decisions to make in the next few weeks. Kotkaniemi, who has two years remaining on his contract in Finland, has said there is an out-clause and he could come to North America, depending on the team that drafts him. Regardless, whatever Montreal does with the No. 3 pick will alter the rest of the draft, according to the Montreal Gazette’s Pat Hickey.

One option is to take Kotkaniemi with the third overall pick regardless of the prospect rankings. Afterall, the Columbus Blue Jackets did the same thing in 2016 when they surprised many by taking Pierre-Luc Dubois with the No. 3 pick then. That worked out pretty well. The downside is the team would likely pass on some top talent in either winger Andrei Svechnikov or Filip Zadina (whoever Carolina doesn’t take at No. 2) as well as a number of stud defensemen like Adam Boqvist, Noah Dobson or Quinn Hughes. Montreal needs help at both positions as well.

The second option is for Montreal to trade back and pick up Kotkaniemi at a more reasonable spot and pick up more assets. Unfortunately, several other teams like Kotkaniemi as well, including the Detroit Red Wings (No. 6) and the Chicago Blackhawks (No. 8). By the way, both teams were the only other teams to take Kotkaniemi out to a steak dinner this week. However, earlier in the week, general manager Marc Bergevin said he was reluctant to trade back in the draft. Director of player personnel Trevor Timmons countered that Saturday, suggesting the team could go up or down with all their extra picks in this draft.

Assuming the Canadiens do want to add a center in the draft, then the team will have a big decision to make in the coming weeks about which route they intend to take.

2018 NHL Scouting Combine Player List

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The 2018 NHL Entry Draft is fast approaching on June 22nd, and the league has released the list of 104 players invited to this year’s scouting combine. The group includes top prospects like Rasmus Dahlin, Andrei Svechnikov and Filip Zadina, along with many others who are just hoping to hear their name called at some point in a few weeks.

Starting today, teams are able to meet this week with potential draft picks for 1-on-1 interviews to better determine the kind of person they are. Though obviously these discussions likely won’t change the first-overall selection, they could bring a player further onto a team’s radar for later in the draft. It’s a chance to impress with your dedication and drive, before getting the opportunity to show them your physical attributes next weekend. The fitness testing will commence on Saturday, with potential top pick Rasmus Dahlin getting involved early (currently scheduled for 8:30am CT).

Below is a full list of the attending players, but for more detailed information check out Scott Wheeler of the Athletic’s Twitter image.

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