Cost Per Point: The Best Value Deals In The NHL
When working with a salary cap, especially one that has not been increasing as expected in recent year, it is vital for general managers to get the most production out of their players. Teams with players who meet the expected level of production implied by their contracts and teams that lack wasted dollars in bad, expensive deals are often the same teams that thrive in today’s NHL. Forget market size or free agent appeal, the key to a winning franchise nowadays is getting the best bang for your buck on every player on the roster. While no player can be fully quantified by their scoring, cost per point is an easy way to look at which players are producing at the most team-friendly rate and which have been more of a cap space killer than a positive member of the team. Thanks to CapFriendly, that information is readily available to fans and NHL executives alike.
The benchmark for this metric is about $100K/point, as GM’s expect those big-time forwards and offensive defenseman who they award with $6MM, $7MM, and $8MM per year contracts to be putting up 60, 70, or 80 points respectively. For the second year in a row, St. Louis Blues superstar Vladimir Tarasenko was the poster boy for this standard, coming in at exactly $100K/point with 75 points on a $7.5MM deal. Winnipeg’s Bryan Little and New Jersey’s Adam Henrique are two other notable names that hit the mark exactly, while phenoms like Sidney Crosby and Duncan Keith landing close to the $100K/point mark show that it is an accurate expectation.
However, the exception to the rule is obviously entry-level contracts. It is no secret that drafting and developing well is the best way to improve you team, beginning with affordable scoring from players on their rookie deals. Nowhere is that more apparent than in cost per point, where nine of the top ten and 17 of the top 20 best contracts were rookie deals. To no one surprise, 20-year-old MVP Connor McDavid and his 100 points on a $925K entry-level contract was far and away the best bargain in hockey. McDavid cost the Oilers only $9,250 per point in 2016-17. That will all change soon, as McDavid is set to begin an eight-year, $100MM contract in 2018-19, after which a 100-point campaign will cost Edmonton $125,000/point, closer to the expectations of a standard contract. For now, the Oilers can enjoy one more year of McDavid likely being the best deal in the NHL, as well as the best player. Entry-level deals joining McDavid in the top ten last year (in order) were Viktor Arvidsson, Artemi Panarin, teammate Leon Draisaitl, Conor Sheary, David Pastrnak, Auston Matthews, Nikolaj Ehlers, and Patrik Laine. Not all entry-level deals are created equal, so while Draisaitl and Pastrnak were second and fourth respectively in entry-level scoring, they were also on the ELC maximum deal of $925K and of slightly lesser value to their teams than the likes of Arvidsson ($632K) and Sheary ($667.5K). Panarin had the best contract in the league in 2015-16 and fell only to third with $10,980/point for the Chicago Blackhawks. Now in Columbus and on a two-year, $12MM deal, the Blue Jackets have to hope that they can continue to get 70+ point seasons out of him to maximize the value of that deal.
So, entry-level contracts aside, who was the best contract in hockey last season? Another easy answer, former Blue Jacket gamble Sam Gagner. After a horrendous 2015-16 campaign with the Philadelphia Flyers, Gagner struggled to find a new team last summer, eventually settling on a $650K “show me” deal with Columbus. Right away people tagged that contract, for a six-time 40+ point scorer, as an absolute bargain, even if Gagner simply bounced back to normal production. He did one better, posting a career-high 50 points for the Jackets and coming in at $13K/point, good enough for sixth in the NHL. Gagner has since moved on to the Vancouver Canucks, signing a three-year, $9.45MM contract on July 1st. However, if he is able to continue to produce at 40-50 point levels over that deal, his $3.15MM cap hit will remain a great bargain deal. Behind Gagner, another player on the move this summer, former Florida Panther and current Vegas Golden Knight Jonathan Marchessault had the 13th-ranked cost per point last year at $14,706/point. Marchessault had a breakout year, netting 51 points in the first season of a two-year, $1.5MM deal. Rather than take advantage of one more $750K season for a 30-goal scorer, the Panthers allowed Marchessault to be selected in the Expansion Draft and Vegas surely hopes he continues to be one of the best values in hockey in 2017-18. The final contract in the top 20 not belonging to an entry-level player, and the only 35+ veteran contract in the top 50, belongs to Marchessault’s replacement in Florida, Radim Vrbata. Vrbata returned home to Arizona last season after a down year in Vancouver the season prior, and the swift 36-year old proceeded to score 55 points, more than double his previous year’s total. On a one-year deal with a $1MM base salary, that only cost the Coyotes $18,182/point last season. Now at a base salary of $2.5MM in Florida, the Panthers hope that Vrbata isn’t starting to slow down just yet. Other impressive value contracts included Patrick Eaves, whose breakout season in Dallas led to a trade and subsequent extension with the Anaheim Ducks, Derek Ryan, who shocked the hockey world with 29 points for the Carolina Hurricanes in his first full NHL season at age 30, and a quartet of recently re-signed RFAs in Richard Panik, Ryan Dzingel, Ryan Spooner, and Jordan Martinook.
With the good comes the bad, and there were certainly some poor value contracts in the NHL last year. Many of the worst belong to players who were injured or AHL depth players that saw only limited time. With zero points in 13 games with a $1.25MM cap hit, Tampa Bay Lightning winger Erik Condra‘s value was not even quantifiable it was so bad, and at the highest salary of any player who went pointless last season. Limited to just 18 games with only four points, another Bolts forward, Ryan Callahan, was one of the worst values due to injury with $1.45MM per point on his $5.8MM cap hit. However, the truly worst contract in the NHL has to belong to a player that player a majority of the season. Sadly for a Detroit fan base that is already feeling pretty down-and-out, that designation belongs to Red Wings defenseman Danny DeKeyser, who began a six-year, $30MM extension by scoring about a third less points for the third season in a row. With 12 points in 82 games at $5MM, DeKeyser’s $416.7K/point is pretty ugly. The Buffalo Sabres struck out twice on the blue line, with both Dmitry Kulikov (five points in 47 games at $4.33MM) and Josh Gorges (six points in 66 games at $3.9MM) coming in at $866.7K/point and $650K/point respectively, though neither is known as a major point producer. The worst forward contract? Andrew Desjardins may not have been relied upon as a full-time player with much ice time last season with the Chicago Blackhawks, but with only one point in 46 games, $800K/point, it’s not difficult to see why he remains an unsigned free agent.
While statistics and analytics in hockey are normally geared toward displaying on-ice production, it is always interesting to look at the game from a business perspective. It is important for teams and fans alike to understand not just the absolute of how a player is producing, but the relative value of that production based on how much money that player is being paid. In a salary cap league, there is nothing more important that production value, and as the game grows the focus will only further tighten on scoring as a function of dollars and the cost per point metric.
Pittsburgh’s Alternative Third-Line Center Options
While many teams across the NHL still have holes to fill before the puck drops on the 2017-18 season, no vacancy has received more attention than the third-line center slot for the two-time defending champion Pittsburgh Penguins. In fact, we’ve already written about it once before. However, the scenario has changed over the last few weeks, as the new contracts for RFAs Brian Dumoulin and Conor Sheary have left the Pens with just over $3MM in salary cap space. Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post Gazette recently spoke with GM Jim Rutherford, who essentially stated that he does not plan to move out significant salary in a deal to acquire a new bottom-six center. What that means is that the Penguins are left with a much smaller margin to work with to acquire Nick Bonino‘s replacement.
So who will it be? Who it won’t be is easier to say. The pipe dreams of Colorado’s Matt Duchene or Carolina’s Jordan Staal are now all but over, as are more reasonable targets like Toronto’s Tyler Bozak or Dallas’ Radek Faksa now seem out of reach as well. The Vegas Golden Knights have not shown any indication that they are interested in moving forwards, so strike their group of suitable centers off the list as well. With each passing day, it seems a Matt Cullen return grows less and less likely as well.
What the Penguins are left with are a group of guys who fit their needs well: young, two-way centers on affordable contracts. The most common name bandied about is Detroit Red Wings forward Riley Sheahan. Sheahan struggled mightily in 2016-17 and is relatively expensive compared to some other available names at $2.075MM this season. However, Detroit desperately needs to shed salary and may have reached the end of the line with Sheahan. It could be a good match, with Sheahan very likely bouncing back on a far more talented Penguins team. Pittsburgh’s top target may be Arizona’s Jordan Martinook, who just resigned with the team, but is part of a Coyotes forward corps that is crowded with young talent. Martinook is an underrated two-way player and would fit in nicely with the Pens, but Arizona may not be keen to move him in a deal that Rutherford stated would not included salary players. The Coyotes have had their fill of picks and prospects and might be on the lookout for only veteran contributors at this point. The Penguins could turn to the Los Angeles Kings, who have great depth at center including Nick Shore and Nic Dowd. Both would fit the need nicely in Pittsburgh and come in at under $1MM. The 25-year-old Shore would be especially nice, as the team can retain RFA rights over him beyond 2017-18, but Dowd may be easier to acquire from a Kings squad that is not any closer to returning to the playoffs. One final option, staying out west, could be San Jose Sharks center Chris Tierney. It is rumored that the two sides are on rocky grounds, with Tierney signing just a one-year extension this summer, and could be looking for a trade. Tierney has proven to be a solid defensive force in the San Jose bottom six and could play the same role in Pittsburgh. The Sharks have done nothing this off-season and could see replacing Tierney with a Penguins forward prospect as at least some kind of roster shakeup.
Obviously, the available names are not of the sexy variety. The Penguins have been spoiled with center depth through their Stanley Cup years and fans are surely hoping they can find another Staal or Bonino. However, with little cap space to play with and a reluctance to change the current roster any further, this is what Rutherford is left with. Any of these guys could be a valuable piece on another strong Penguins team, as each plays a solid two-way game, but none are gonna be the big-name acquisition that many expected. Pittsburgh will be back in the Cup race again next year even if they do nothing at all and stick someone from Wilkes-Barre/Scranton at third-line center, so maybe the better question is not who will play there, but why does everyone care so much?
Pressure On The Strome Brothers In 2017-18
If Philadelphia Flyers prospect Matthew Strome somehow makes the roster out of camp this fall, it will come as a pleasant surprise to the team and the fans. Strome fell to the fourth round, 106th overall, in the NHL Draft this past June after many believed he would be a first or second-round prospect. Yet, Strome does possess great size and compete level for his age and has the vision and finishing ability to have an outside shot at a bottom-six winger slot for Philly. However, if Strome is simply returned to the OHL’s Hamilton Bulldogs for another year, maybe two, no one will be upset. There are no expectations for the youngest Strome at this point in time.
The same cannot be said for his older brothers. New Edmonton Oiler Ryan Strome and Arizona Coyotes prospect Dylan Strome face some serious stakes in 2017-18. Both are still young at 24 and 20 respectively, but neither has lived up to expectations thus far. With each facing the daunting task of playing a key offensive role for their teams this season, the time is now to show that they have what it takes.
In many ways, the Oilers’ recent trade of Jordan Eberle to the New York Islanders for Ryan Strome was a salary cap dump. Eberle was set to make $6MM this year and next, while Strome will be paid just $2.5MM this season. Eberle is also twice the player that Strome is, both subjectively in the minds of most hockey pundits and objectively given the pairs scoring stats in each of the past two seasons. The fact of the matter is that the Oilers were facing a cap crunch with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl in need of super-expensive long-term extensions and with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Milan Lucic, and their top-four defenseman all already signed to big-money deals. Someone had to go and the choice was Eberle. However, Edmonton has now lost the only player that has been a consistent scorer for them through many dark years and a crucial member of the top six. Strome may not hold up in comparison, but it is no secret that he is expected to contribute this season and vastly improve from his numbers with the Islanders. After a 50-point campaign and +23 rating in his first full pro season in 2014-15, many thought Strome was on his way to stardom. Two years later, he’s scored just 58 points over two seasons and is a -17 in that span. Strome hit a wall in New York and looked lost in the Isles’ lineup. Edmonton presents a brand new opportunity for him to show that his 5th overall pick status in 2011 and early NHL returns were no fluke. While Strome is a natural center, the Oilers are sorely lacking a right-shot offensive threat in the top six with Eberle gone. Rather than bury Strome on the third line, it seems very likely that he could instead move from center to right wing, where he spent some time in New York, and skate alongside the likes of McDavid, Draisaitl, or Nugent-Hopkins next season. With that role will come the pressure to produce alongside such high-quality players. Strome must improve on his 30 points from 2016-17 and has to become a better even strength player. If he doesn’t, the Oilers may regret this deal as they struggle to find secondary scoring and Strome’s future may be in doubt this time next year as he faces restricted free agency.
Dylan Strome has always been property of the Arizona Coyotes, but playing with the team this season may feel like new scenario. The former Erie Otters superstar has played in just seven NHL games since being drafted third overall in 2015 and has just one assist to show for it. Once considered the Coyotes #1 center of the future, Strome will enter the mix this year as somewhat of an afterthought. The team went out and acquired Derek Stepan from the New York Rangers, who should be the team’s top center and offensive leader for the time being. There is also Calder speculation surrounding young center Clayton Keller who, despite being drafted a year after and four spots later than Strome, has seemingly passed him up on the organizational depth chart. With promising young players like Max Domi, Anthony Duclair Brendan Perlini, Christian Fischer, Christian Dvorak, Lawson Crouse, and Nick Merkley also in the mix, not to mention solid veterans like Jordan Martinook, Tobias Rieder, and Jamie McGinn, it may be hard for Strome to find a top-nine role, nevertheless be a featured forward. Yet, the rebuild in Arizona cannot last forever and “promise” will only hold up for so long on a Coyotes team that should be taking the next step soon. If the ‘Yotes don’t improve in 2017-18 and Strome’s rookie season is underwhelming, many may point to his lack of development as the reason why the rebuild has shown few results. While it is asking a lot to compare Strome to the two picks ahead of him in 2015 – Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel – the early success of those after him, like Mitch Marner, Mikko Rantanen, Pavel Zacha, Travis Konecny, Anthony Beauvillier, Sebastian Aho, and more, is likely already frustrating both Arizona fans and executives. Another season without results could be disastrous for his tenure in the desert. The pressure is officially on.
If Ryan and Dylan Strome live up to their draft hype and ample ability this year, the Strome family could be the talk of the hockey town in 2017-18. However, if neither can take advantage of their opportunities this year, there could be some serious doubt cast upon the career prospects of both. Then again, at least there’s always Matthew to watch for.
Jordan Martinook Re-Signs With Arizona
The Arizona Coyotes and two-way forward Jordan Martinook have avoided arbitration, coming to terms on a new deal today. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports that Martinook has signed a two-year, $3.6MM deal to remain in the desert. The two sides have reportedly been close on contract terms for a while, but there was also speculation that Martinook would wait for his arbitration hearing this Wednesday, July 26th, before making a decision. Instead, the big forward has signed on for two more years with the promising young Coyotes, where he could soon take on a larger role for the team.
Martinook, in just his second full NHL season, has already shown that he is a model of consistency and effort. Capable of playing both center and left wing, Martinook is the perfect versatile bottom-six forward. He plays a smart two-way game, including leading the Coyotes’ penalty kill unit, and brings a physical edge and swift defensive style. He can also put up some offense, with 24 and 25 points respectively in his first two full seasons, including 11 goals in 2016-17.
The 24-year-old Martinook is just beginning to show his NHL upside, and should take on a much larger role for Arizona going forward. Amazingly, with Shane Doan and Radim Vrbata now gone, Martinook is second only to Tobias Rieder in games played with Arizona among forwards on the team with just 166 contests. The absence of those veterans will naturally allow for more ice time and scoring opportunity for Martinook, but as full-effort player and one of the longest-tenured forwards on a young term, Martinook could also be in line for a leadership position in the locker room. At just $1.8MM per year for a well-rounded player about to take the next step in his development, GM John Chayka and the Coyotes may have a bargain on their hands with Martinook’s new contract.
West Notes: Arizona’s Arena Search, Martinook, Blues
As the Coyotes continue to look for a new arena, one option that appears to now be off the table is a joint venture with the NBA’s Phoenix Suns, reports Scott Bordow of the Arizona Republic. Suns owner Robert Sarver said that he is focused on upgrading their current arena instead of pursuing a new facility.
This marks the second time in recent months that a potential partnership is off the table for the Coyotes, who saw their proposed plans with Arizona State University fall through back in February. The team is locked in at their current facility for just the 2017-18 season although the expectation is that they will agree to another short-term lease as they continue to pursue sites for a new arena within the area.
Elsewhere out West:
- Still with the Coyotes, Jeff Helperl, agent for RFA winger Jordan Martinook, told Arizona Sports’ Craig Morgan (Twitter link) that the two sides are close on a new deal but that he thinks the team may still prefer to go to arbitration. The hearing is scheduled for July 26th. Martinook is coming off a career year in Arizona, recording 11 goals and 14 assists in 77 games while averaging 15:41 per night in ice time.
- After inking Colton Parayko to a five-year, $27.5MM contract earlier today, the Blues have about $3MM in cap space per CapFriendly. Despite that, don’t expect St. Louis to be too active the rest of the offseason. GM Doug Armstrong told reporters, including Tom Timmermann of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, that they would like to keep as much wiggle room as possible under the salary cap. While that not only would give them more space to work with for in-season movement, it also will help them hedge against a flat salary cap moving forward, something Armstrong acknowledged that he expects to happen for the foreseeable future.