Hurricanes Have A Decision To Make With Their Second Buyout Window
On Monday, the Hurricanes avoided salary arbitration with restricted free agent Martin Necas, inking him to a two-year, $13MM contract. He was their only player to file so with that case now settled, a short-term second buyout window has opened up.
As a refresher, teams get their second buyout window once a team’s arbitration cases have been resolved. It opens up 72 hours after signing and lasts for 48 hours (meaning time is nearly up for Carolina to consider this). The only contracts that can be bought out in this window are for players with cap hits higher than $4MM and the player had to have been on the team’s roster at the last trade deadline.
At first glance, the idea of using the window might not make much sense. After all, they have $6.44MM in cap space, per PuckPedia, an amount that is higher than most teams.
However, it’s a misleading figure as they still have restricted free agent Seth Jarvis to re-sign; the winger wasn’t eligible for arbitration. The 22-year-old is coming off a breakout year, one that saw him record 33 goals and 34 assists in 81 regular season games before adding nine more points in 11 playoff contests. A first-round pick in 2020, it’s fair to say that the Hurricanes envision Jarvis as being a core piece of their long-term future.
Generally, Jarvis is the type of player that they’d like to sign to a max-term eight-year agreement, buying an additional four years of team control. However, coming off the year he had, it’s quite likely that such an agreement would cost more than what they have in cap room. For the price tag to come in around $6MM, it would likely need to be a three-year bridge agreement. So if GM Eric Tulsky wants to sign Jarvis for that long, he’ll need to create some cap space.
One way to do that is in this second window where one potential candidate stands out, Jesperi Kotkaniemi. He has not lived up to his third-overall draft billing and is coming off his most disappointing season, one that saw him notch 12 goals and 15 assists in 79 games while logging only 12:59 per game. That’s not a great return on a $4.82MM AAV, especially when that contract runs through the 2029-30 season.
Typically, a buyout on that expensive and long of a contract would make no sense. But because Kotkaniemi is only 24, the buyout cost is one one-third, not the standard two-thirds. Accordingly, the buyout would break down as follows:
2024-25 to 2026-27: $835K per season
2027-28 to 2029-30: $455K per season
2030-31 to 2035-36: $835K per season
That means that a Kotkaniemi buyout would save the Hurricanes $3.985MM, bringing their cap space total to $10.425MM which is ample space to give Jarvis a max-term extension while giving them enough flexibility to afford a replacement roster player for Kotkaniemi.
Are there other ways to open up that cap space? Of course; they could look to the trade market and try to find a way to shed salary that way. And let’s face it, the prospect of paying Kotkaniemi until 2036 not to play for them is far from appealing. Frankly, it would be a surprise if they went this route. But if they want to work out a long-term deal with Jarvis and need to free up the money, this is one route they can go but only for a few more hours.
East Notes: Bruins Injuries, Barzal, Matthews, Kotkaniemi
The Bruins have had a bit of tough luck on the injury front lately with several key regulars going down. Today, the team provided a handful of updates on those players. Winger David Pastrnak and defenseman Hampus Lindholm skated today but won’t be with the team for their two-game road trip. Head coach Bruce Cassidy indicated he expects both will be back before the end of the season and could play this weekend. Meanwhile, goaltender Linus Ullmark didn’t skate today but they believe he’ll be able to return over the weekend. Winger Jesper Froden suffered a lower-body injury on Saturday and won’t be on the road trip either with no word yet on how long he might be out.
Elsewhere in the Eastern Conference:
- The Department of Player Safety issued a fine of $2.5K to Islanders center Mathew Barzal for unsportsmanlike conduct. The incident occurred late in the third period on Sunday when he grabbed onto Mitch Marner’s jersey from the bench. No penalty was issued on the play.
- While Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews is still a couple of years away from hitting the open market, pondering what his next deal could cost has already become a discussion point. In his latest column for the Toronto Star, Chris Johnston opines that the 24-year-old could reach the $15MM mark, one that would significantly surpass Connor McDavid’s record-setting $12.5MM AAV. Matthews is in the midst of a career year with a league-high 58 goals along with 44 assists in 70 games this season.
- On top of updating the injury situation for goaltender Frederik Andersen, the Hurricanes also revealed that forward Jesperi Kotkaniemi has been nicked up again and is listed as day-to-day. The 21-year-old had just come back from missing eight games with a lower-body injury so it’s possible this absence is related to that one. Head coach Rod Brind’Amour stated that he doesn’t expect Kotkaniemi to be out for long.
Jesperi Kotkaniemi Out Two-to-Three Weeks
The Hurricanes are losing their recently-extended young center for a few weeks. Jesperi Kotkaniemi is going to be out of Carolina’s lineup for the next two-to-three weeks, a source revealed to Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic. (subscription required) This development comes after head coach Rod Brind’Amour recently told the media that Kotkaniemi would be out “a few weeks,” meaning LeBrun has now confirmed a more definite timeline for the injury. Kotkaniemi’s lower-body injury stems from a hit by the Capitals’ Lars Eller during the Hurricanes’ win over Washington.
Kotkaniemi, 21, arrived in Carolina as the result of a controversial successful offer sheet, one that pried him away from the Montreal Canadiens, the team that drafted him 3rd overall in 2018. Kotkaniemi’s career thus far has been inconsistent, and he has been unable to establish himself as an NHL difference-maker like the players drafted around his 2018 third-overall draft slot have, such as Brady Tkachuk, Andrei Svechnikov, and Rasmus Dahlin. In 63 games this season Kotkaniemi has 11 goals and 26 points, production that is only a modest improvement over his 2020-21 season where he posted five goals and 20 points in 56 games. But the Hurricanes have made significant investments in Kotkaniemi, clear evidence of their belief in his long-term upside. Given the Hurricanes’ recent run of success in terms of their player development and evaluation, it would be unsurprising to see this most recent gamble of theirs eventually pay off.
In the more immediate term, though, this injury is unfortunate news for the Hurricanes. The team is all but locked into the Eastern Conference’s playoff picture, and is gearing up for what they have to expect will be a long playoff run. Losing Kotkaniemi for this period may impact their ability to figure out their optimal playoff lineup in time for puck drop in game one. Thankfully for the Hurricanes, though, they did make a buzzer-beating trade on deadline day to acquire Max Domi from the Blue Jackets. Given Domi’s experience as a center, he should be able to shoulder much of the burden from Kotkaniemi’s absence if necessary.
Jesperi Kotkaniemi Signs Long-Term Extension
Now that he could officially ink an eight-year deal, Jesperi Kotkaniemi is locked in with the Carolina Hurricanes. The team has announced an eight-year extension which will carry an average annual value of $4.82MM. PuckPedia reports the full breakdown:
- 2022-23: $4.0MM
- 2023-24: $4.5MM
- 2024-25: $4.82MM
- 2025-26: $4.82MM
- 2026-27: $4.82MM
- 2027-28: $5.2MM
- 2028-29: $5.2MM
- 2029-30: $5.2MM
The deal does not contain any signing bonuses and includes a ten-team no-trade clause once he is eligible for it in 2025.
Kotkaniemi, 21, will always be a hot-button issue for Carolina and Montreal Canadiens fans, after he was signed to an offer sheet last summer that came with plenty of gamesmanship between the two franchises. The young forward certainly hasn’t lived up to the $6.1MM cap hit he carried this season but will now lock in at a much more reasonable number for the next chunk of his career.
Still, this is a huge commitment from the Hurricanes and one that includes a ton of risk. The young forward has not taken a substantial step forward since entering the career as a teenager in 2018-19 and has just 11 goals and 23 points this season in limited minutes with the Hurricanes. Sure, he would likely see more offensive production if given more than the 12 minutes he averages for Carolina, but this isn’t the kind of player that usually earns an eight-year deal. Given the fact that the Hurricanes also had to forfeit first- and third-round picks as offer sheet compensation, they’ve sunk a huge amount of resources into this player already, without much to show for it.
There’s certainly a chance that he outproduces this contract, especially given the fact that Vincent Trocheck and Nino Niederreiter could both leave in unrestricted free agency, opening plenty of playing time at center and wing, but also no guarantee that he can play regular minutes in the top-six next season, at least not on a team as strong as Carolina. If not, the team is backing themselves into a corner with a contract of this length, one that would be hard to move if Kotkaniemi’s development falls flat.
In for a penny, in for a pound, though, as the Hurricanes commit to the young Finn and look to use him as a building block moving forward. He’s now signed longer than any player in the organization.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Snapshots: Kotkaniemi, Staal, Foligno
Nothing has really been definitive on the various reports of a Jesperi Kotkaniemi extension in Carolina over the past 24 hours, and now there’s some clarity why. CapFriendly reports that Kotkaniemi, as a result of the 2020 Memorandum of Understanding that the league and NHLPA passed prior to the bubble playoffs, can’t actually sign his eight-year extension until after this year’s Trade Deadline. Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli reported yesterday afternoon that an extension between the two parties was on the horizon, with Bally Sports Midwest’s Andy Strickland then reporting an eight-year extension in the $4.25MM-$4.5MM range while PuckPedia pegs it at $4.82MM. The hockey world will need to wait at least a week and a half to learn the official deal, however.
Some other Saturday morning notes:
- Detroit Red Wings defenseman Marc Staal will become the third Staal brother to play 1,000 NHL games tonight, setting a record in the process. It’ll be the first time in NHL history that three brothers will have played in 1,000 or more games, besting out the Sutter and Stastny families, among others. He’ll set the marker at the Saddledome in Calgary.
- The Wild’s Marcus Foligno has been under scrutiny from NHL Player Safety for a variety of plays this season, and they may be handing out a punishment to ‘Moose’ once again in the form of a fine. The Athletic’s Michael Russo says that while he’s likely to escape a suspension for a knee-on-knee collision with Columbus’ Jakub Voracek last night, he could see a fine in the near future. Update: That fine did indeed come with the Department of Player Safety issuing a $5K penalty.
Snapshots: McBain, Oilers Goaltending, Kotkaniemi
When a team makes a draft pick to select a player who is NCAA-bound, they make the pick with the understanding that there is a potential risk of that player graduating from college and then being free to sign with another team. On that front, the Minnesota Wild have a dilemma that centers around Jack McBain, the player the team drafted 63rd overall in 2018. McBain is currently a star player for Boston College, where he has 18 goals and 29 points in 22 games this season. He is clearly a quality prospect, but the issue for the Wild is the situation surrounding their control over the rights to sign him. McBain is nearing the end of his tenure at Boston College, and is therefore very close to being able to decide for himself where he wants to sign, similar to Jimmy Vesey, who is an example of this happening in the past.
Why is this complicated for the Wild? Because McBain is a Toronto, Ontario native without much natural connection to the Wild other than being drafted by them. As Jeff Marek of Sportsnet states on Hockey Night in Canada, McBain could very well “chart his own course” and test free agency. The issue for the Wild, then, is what to do with the rights to McBain they still hold. Do they keep him with the intent on signing him, risking the potential of him leaving for nothing? Or do they explore the possibility, as Marek states they might, of trading his rights in a deadline deal to mine as much guaranteed value from their dwindling team control as possible. It’s most definitely something to keep an eye on as the deadline inches closer.
- As mentioned in the team’s Trade Deadline Primer, the Oilers’ goaltending situation should be their key priority when approaching the trade deadline. The Athletic’s Daniel Nugent-Bowman examined that situation in more detail. (subscription required) The Oilers are in dire need of improvement in the crease, and the team could look to add outside help at the deadline. Nugent-Bowman floats four names as potential trade targets: Semyon Varlamov, Ville Husso, Braden Holtby, and James Reimer. He notes that Oilers’ GM Ken Holland “won’t send away top assets for rentals,” but also highlights the importance of the Oilers improving their play in net. Varlamov, Husso, Holtby, and Reimer would all be definite improvements over Koskinen and Smith, but the responsibility is on Holland to strike a deal if that improvement is to be secured.
- The Carolina Hurricanes caused a firestorm this offseason when they acquired center Jesperi Kotkaniemi from the Montreal Canadiens via an offer sheet, a means of player acquisition rarely used by NHL front offices. But in order to do so successfully, they had to pay Kotkaniemi $6.1MM over one year, making it so if the Hurricanes want to retain Kotkaniemi’s rights this offseason, they must issue him a similarly-expensive qualifying offer. Kotkaniemi has had an up-and-down season, and has 11 goals and 22 points in 52 games, a 17-goal, 35-point pace over 82 games played, production that is not typically deemed to be worthy of a cap hit north of $6MM. Frank Seravalli of Daily Faceoff reports that the Hurricanes and Kotkaniemi have had “productive talks” on the framework of a long-term contract extension, a deal that Seravalli speculates could be worth between $4MM and $4.5MM over a six or seven year term. If those talks end up in a contract with that term and cap number, it would be indicative of a significant vote of confidence in the 21-year-old Kotkaniemi, who has so far had a bit of a rocky NHL career.
Jesperi Kotkaniemi Enters COVID-19 Protocol
Carolina Hurricanes forward Jesperi Kotkaniemi entered the NHL’s COVID-19 protocol today, the team announced on Twitter.
Kotkaniemi becomes the only Hurricanes player in COVID protocol. With the NHL scaling back testing protocol and slowly loosening COVID restrictions, there’s almost surely going to be a decrease in the frequency of players entering the protocol.
After signing a one-year, $6MM offer sheet to join the Hurricanes organization this summer, Kotkaniemi is on pace for a career season despite a limited role and limits. Most often seeing usage in the team’s bottom-six, the 21-year-old Kotkaniemi has nine goals and 11 assists for 20 points in 42 games, on pace to eclipse his career-high of 34 points set during his rookie campaign with the Montreal Canadiens in 2018-19.
It’s a tough break for the Hurricanes, who’ll likely lose a valuable depth piece for a few games. Assuming Kotkaniemi misses games within the normal five-day quarantine period, he’ll miss the team’s next three contests and could potentially return on February 12th in St. Paul against the Minnesota Wild.
The news comes as the team’s general manager Don Waddell said yesterday that the team hopes to sign a long-term contract extension. Kotkaniemi is a restricted free agent this offseason.
Hurricanes Hoping To Sign Kotkaniemi To Long-Term Deal
Last summer, the Carolina Hurricanes became the first team to successfully acquire a player through an offer sheet since the Edmonton Oilers snatched Dustin Penner in 2007. They forfeited two picks–including a first-round selection in 2022–to the Montreal Canadiens as compensation for Jesperi Kotkaniemi, who signed just a one-year deal with the Hurricanes.
Kotkaniemi, 21, has 20 points in 42 games so far in Carolina but is playing just over 12 minutes a night. While that certainly isn’t what you want from someone carrying a $6.1MM cap hit, the team was always going to have to pay a premium in order for the offer sheet to work in the first place.
Right from the moment it was signed, speculation began about what the Hurricanes could do for Kotkaniemi’s next contract. He’ll be a restricted free agent after the season ends and is eligible for arbitration. To even get that far though the Hurricanes also owe him a qualifying offer that matches his $6.1MM cap hit, something that was the cause of much consternation in the summer.
Before they even get to the issue of a qualifying offer though, the Hurricanes are working to avoid that problem altogether. In Pierre LeBrun’s latest for The Athletic, he spoke to general manager Don Waddell, who admitted that he’s already had preliminary contract talks with Kotkaniemi’s camp. The team is hoping to sign a long-term deal and spoke to agent Markus Lehto last week.
A long-term extension could potentially fix any overpayment relative to Kotkaniemi’s production. Sure, he has leverage right now with that qualifying offer and arbitration in his pocket, but that extra money could be spread out to get a lower cap hit, one that gives the young forward time to develop and become a core piece of what they’re doing in Carolina. It’s unlikely to provide a ton of surplus value given the Hurricanes’ position, but it also will bring that number down to a more reasonable amount. As Waddell put it, the team will “find a solution to make everyone happy.”
Metropolitan Notes: Penguins, Georgiev, Hofmann, Kotkaniemi
The Penguins received some good and bad news on the COVID front today. The team announced (Twitter link) that winger Evan Rodrigues has been removed from protocols but center Jeff Carter has been placed in COVID protocol. Rodrigues is in the middle of a career year for Pittsburgh with 23 points in 30 games while seeing regular minutes on the top line so he’ll be a welcome return. Meanwhile, it’s the second time this season that Carter has been placed in COVID protocol. The veteran is having a nice year in a top-six role, notching 17 points in 27 games so far. Pittsburgh currently has eight players in COVID protocol.
More from the Metropolitan Division:
- While Rangers goaltender Alexandar Georgiev isn’t thrilled about his current lack of playing time, Arthur Staple of The Athletic suggests (subscription link) that the team is unlikely to trade the netminder in advance of the March 21st trade deadline. With Igor Shesterkin’s injury history and the fact that Keith Kinkaid is their next best option, Georgiev may very well be more valuable to New York as an insurance policy than as a trade chip. Accordingly, a move in the offseason when their cap situation gets trickier and more replacements are available seems like a better time for the netminder to be moved.
- Blue Jackets winger Gregory Hofmann has taken a leave of absence for personal reasons, notes Brian Hedger of the Columbus Dispatch (Twitter link). The 29-year-old has seven points in 24 games in his first NHL season after his rights were acquired from Carolina last season. His wife is expecting the birth of their first child soon so there is no firm date yet for his return.
- While there was plenty of speculation at the time that Jesperi Kotkaniemi signed his one-year, $6.1MM offer sheet with Carolina that the framework of a longer-term extension was also discussed, GM Don Waddell told Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic (subscription link) that there have been no discussions on that front as of yet. The 21-year-old is eligible to sign an extension as of Saturday but is off to a quieter start than he and the Hurricanes were hoping for as he has 14 points in 30 games this season while playing just 12:15 per game. As a result, finding a price tag that both sides are comfortable with for a long-term contract may be difficult at this point. Carolina will need to tender a $6.1MM qualifying offer this summer if no extension is reached by then.
Canadiens Notes: Kotkaniemi, Roster Moves, Captaincy
The Montreal Canadiens held a press conference this morning with general manager Marc Bergevin to discuss the loss of Jesperi Kotkaniemi and the subsequent acquisition of Christian Dvorak. Bergevin gave information on multiple aspects of the situation that had evolved over the past week, as well as some other pressing questions that Montreal’s offseason inferred. In terms of the Kotkaniemi negotiations, though, Bergevin mentioned that they were discussing a two-year bridge deal with the 21-year-old Finnish forward. While he didn’t mention any specific financial terms, it’s hard to believe that the total value of the contract would’ve eclipsed the $6.1MM he received from the Hurricanes, let alone the average annual value. A two-year bridge deal would still have left Kotkaniemi with two seasons of RFA eligibility, only taking him through his age 23 season.
More from today’s Habs press conference:
- Montreal’s roster is extremely unlikely to change before training camp, Bergevin admitted today. The statement doesn’t come as a surprise to many, as Montreal sits only $1.1MM away from the amount of which they’ll be able to exceed the salary cap’s Upper Limit when Paul Byron is removed from long-term injured reserve. Considering Montreal’s playoff hopes, salary cap flexibility at this year’s trade deadline will likely be of utmost importance to the squad. The team does still have five available contract slots, though, so signings for minor-league depth shouldn’t be completely ruled out just yet.
- Bergevin also confirmed today that the Montreal Canadiens won’t name an interim captain this season. Questions have been raised about the situation ever since it was announced that captain Shea Weber would miss the entire 2021-22 season (and potentially more) with injury. Brendan Gallagher and Paul Byron remain as alternate captains into the 2021-22 season, but the Canadiens are likely to name a third assistant and potentially fourth to compensate for Weber’s and Byron’s absences. Tyler Toffoli‘s and Jeff Petry‘s experience and leadership skills make them likely candidates for the titles.