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Jesperi Kotkaniemi

Metropolitan Notes: Penguins, Georgiev, Hofmann, Kotkaniemi

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The Penguins received some good and bad news on the COVID front today.  The team announced (Twitter link) that winger Evan Rodrigues has been removed from protocols but center Jeff Carter has been placed in COVID protocol.  Rodrigues is in the middle of a career year for Pittsburgh with 23 points in 30 games while seeing regular minutes on the top line so he’ll be a welcome return.  Meanwhile, it’s the second time this season that Carter has been placed in COVID protocol.  The veteran is having a nice year in a top-six role, notching 17 points in 27 games so far.  Pittsburgh currently has eight players in COVID protocol.

More from the Metropolitan Division:

  • While Rangers goaltender Alexandar Georgiev isn’t thrilled about his current lack of playing time, Arthur Staple of The Athletic suggests (subscription link) that the team is unlikely to trade the netminder in advance of the March 21st trade deadline. With Igor Shesterkin’s injury history and the fact that Keith Kinkaid is their next best option, Georgiev may very well be more valuable to New York as an insurance policy than as a trade chip.  Accordingly, a move in the offseason when their cap situation gets trickier and more replacements are available seems like a better time for the netminder to be moved.
  • Blue Jackets winger Gregory Hofmann has taken a leave of absence for personal reasons, notes Brian Hedger of the Columbus Dispatch (Twitter link). The 29-year-old has seven points in 24 games in his first NHL season after his rights were acquired from Carolina last season.  His wife is expecting the birth of their first child soon so there is no firm date yet for his return.
  • While there was plenty of speculation at the time that Jesperi Kotkaniemi signed his one-year, $6.1MM offer sheet with Carolina that the framework of a longer-term extension was also discussed, GM Don Waddell told Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic (subscription link) that there have been no discussions on that front as of yet. The 21-year-old is eligible to sign an extension as of Saturday but is off to a quieter start than he and the Hurricanes were hoping for as he has 14 points in 30 games this season while playing just 12:15 per game.  As a result, finding a price tag that both sides are comfortable with for a long-term contract may be difficult at this point.  Carolina will need to tender a $6.1MM qualifying offer this summer if no extension is reached by then.

Canadiens Notes: Kotkaniemi, Roster Moves, Captaincy

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The Montreal Canadiens held a press conference this morning with general manager Marc Bergevin to discuss the loss of Jesperi Kotkaniemi and the subsequent acquisition of Christian Dvorak. Bergevin gave information on multiple aspects of the situation that had evolved over the past week, as well as some other pressing questions that Montreal’s offseason inferred. In terms of the Kotkaniemi negotiations, though, Bergevin mentioned that they were discussing a two-year bridge deal with the 21-year-old Finnish forward. While he didn’t mention any specific financial terms, it’s hard to believe that the total value of the contract would’ve eclipsed the $6.1MM he received from the Hurricanes, let alone the average annual value. A two-year bridge deal would still have left Kotkaniemi with two seasons of RFA eligibility, only taking him through his age 23 season.

More from today’s Habs press conference:

Poll: Are The Montreal Canadiens A Playoff Team In 2021-22?

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After making it all the way to the 2021 Stanley Cup Final, losing in five games to the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Montreal Canadiens have had one of the most interesting offseasons of any team. That much roster turnover is unusual for a team that made it that far in the playoffs, but a decent portion of it has been out of their control.

A good portion of Montreal’s starting 12 forwards will look different next season. Gone down the middle are Phillip Danault, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, and Eric Staal. Dvorak will attempt to replace Danault’s shutdown role with a little more offensive touch but less defensive prowess. Kotkaniemi’s third-line role is likely to be replaced by another young center, most probably Jake Evans. Staal’s fourth-line role will likely be comprised of a more defensive-minded pivot in Cedric Paquette. Their group of wingers will look different too, losing out on Tomas Tatar’s two-way play in favor of a power-play specialist in Mike Hoffman. Gone is veteran Corey Perry in the bottom six, being replaced by another veteran presence in Mathieu Perreault.

The team’s defense faces the loss of the team’s captain in Shea Weber. His injury will keep him out for at least this entire season and puts the rest of his career in jeopardy. His absence will be replaced by committee, as youngster Alexander Romanov and new addition David Savard should see more minutes. The left side stays relatively constant from last season, and overseas addition Chris Wideman could challenge for some games as well.

A tandem of Carey Price and Jake Allen returns after a successful regular season campaign.

However, a team that barely squeaked into the playoffs last season returns with some question marks. Full seasons of Jonathan Drouin and Cole Caufield help boost the team, but downgrades from Danault to Dvorak and Tatar to Hoffman raise near-negating doubts. The success of youngsters like Evans and Romanov will be crucial if Montreal wants to make a return to the playoffs in 2022, and they’ll need repeat performances from players such as Jeff Petry and Josh Anderson.

So the question to you, PHR readers, is this: has Montreal done enough this offseason to yield a playoff team in an increasingly competitive Eastern Conference? Make your voice heard below:

Mobile users, click here to vote!

Snapshots: Kotkaniemi, Hurricanes Cap, Quenneville

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It’s been an unusually busy weekend in the hockey world, with yesterday’s successful Jesperi Kotkaniemi offer sheet and Christian Dvorak trade dominating headlines. Both of those moves have some corresponding implications that reach into today’s news cycle, including Kotkaniemi’s future as a playing member of the Carolina Hurricanes. General manager Don Waddell stated in his press conference this morning that the team’s plan is to start Kotkaniemi at the left-wing position in Carolina. It won’t be anything completely new for the 21-year-old Finnish forward, who’s played wing sparingly at times during his tenure with the Montreal Canadiens, but was mostly used as a bottom-six center there. Given his still-tantalizing potential and $6.1MM price tag, it’s likely that Kotkaniemi could slot in the top six along with Vincent Trocheck, but it’s all speculation until training camp begins. What’s for certain is that Carolina aims to give Kotkaniemi more opportunity and a better supporting cast than he’s had previously, hoping to get the most out of Kotkaniemi for the gamble of a price.

Some more fallout from the Kotkaniemi offer sheet, as well as a note about a Seattle Kraken expansion draft selection:

  • With today’s news of Jake Gardiner’s back and hip surgery and pending long-term injured reserve placement, the Carolina Hurricanes now have some salary-cap maneuvering to do. PuckPedia notes that Carolina will be able to exceed the cap by $4.05MM, the average annual value of Gardiner’s contract. The team currently sits at $1.5MM over the cap after the Kotkaniemi deal became official. PuckPedia also surmises that Carolina won’t have to go through too much trouble in order to maximize their salary cap relief, only sending two players down to be as close to the Upper Limit as possible before placing Gardiner on LTIR. Martin Necas remains the only non-waiver-eligible player on the roster and considering his role on the team, it’s unlikely he’ll be involved in a paper transaction. Steven Lorentz and Brendan Smith seem likely candidates to be waived and sent down in order to make the team cap-compliant.
  • The ZSC Lions of the Swiss National League announced today that they’ve signed former NHL forward John Quenneville to a contract after signing him to a professional tryout last month. Quenneville is one of a few Seattle Kraken expansion draft selections to not remain with the team into the 2021-22 season. Their selection from the Chicago Blackhawks, Quenneville was a pending unrestricted free agent and wasn’t signed by the Kraken. A first-round pick of the New Jersey Devils in 2014, the now 25-year-old Quenneville never secured a full-time role in the NHL and will likely see much more opportunity overseas. Quenneville appeared in 42 NHL games between 2016 and 2020, scoring two goals and five points.

Montreal Canadiens Decline To Match Jesperi Kotkaniemi Offer Sheet

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The Montreal Canadiens are saying goodbye to one of their most promising young players in Jesperi Kotkaniemi. The team announced today that they won’t be matching the one-year, $6.1MM offer sheet tendered by the Carolina Hurricanes last weekend.

In return, the Canadiens are receiving Carolina’s first and third-round draft selections in the 2022 NHL Draft.

Carolina’s acquisition of Kotkaniemi marks the first successful offer sheet in the NHL since 2007 when the Edmonton Oilers successfully acquired Dustin Penner from the Anaheim Ducks. The move to acquire the former third-overall pick at $6.1MM seems pricey for what he’s produced so far in his career, and when you look at Carolina’s salary cap situation, it appears even worse. Now finally with a full roster, the team sits at $1.52MM over the salary cap. Considering the team entered the offseason with a large amount of cap space and still lost Dougie Hamilton and Alex Nedeljkovic, questions have been rightfully raised over Carolina’s asset management strategy. But just because Kotkaniemi is making $6.1MM this season, and is consequently owed a $6.1MM qualifying offer at the end of the season, doesn’t mean he’ll cost that much down the line for Carolina. Multiple rumours have emerged that a longer-term extension for Kotkaniemi in Carolina may emerge at a lower average annual value as negotiations remain amicable.

For Montreal, their already stagnant roster now faces a massive hole at center. The team’s acquisition of Cedric Paquette won’t be nearly enough to replace the departures of Phillip Danault and Eric Staal as well as Kotkaniemi, and they need answers at the centre-ice position. Luckily for them, they’ll likely be able to find that answer with the compensation they received for Kotkaniemi. With an overpayment in real money from Carolina comes an overpayment in compensation as well. The draft picks Montreal received are much more valuable than what they would have received had they just traded Kotkaniemi anywhere else. Those picks can either be sent straight-up or packaged for a center, of which there are many on the trade market. While Christian Dvorak would appear to be the frontrunner, Tomas Hertl and Evgeny Kuznetsov remain available for trade and could soften the blow of Montreal’s lost centers.

Regardless, it’s an exciting story at a time where not much news tends to cross the NHL wire. Kotkaniemi’s performance in a new system under a new coach will be a large storyline this season, as the prospect with a high pedigree aims to live up to his third-overall potential.

All salary cap figures per CapFriendly.com.

PHR Panel: Offer Sheet Opining

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Tomorrow, there is a deadline for the Montreal Canadiens to decide whether or not to match the offer sheet signed by Jesperi Kotkaniemi and the Carolina Hurricanes. The decision they have is a simple one on its face–pay Kotkaniemi $6.1MM for the 2021-22 season, or take Carolina’s first- and third-round picks to let him go.

But it’s much more than just a one-year decision and it has implications that reach much further than just one player. Canadiens GM Marc Bergevin has been completely silent since the agreement was announced just under a week ago, though there has been some reporting that the team is testing the market on replacement options should Kotkaniemi end up in Carolina.

With this uncommon situation, we’ve decided to unearth one of our former features: The PHR Panel. This time we’re welcoming Josh Erickson to the panel after he joined PHR earlier this offseason, but I, Brian La Rose, and Zach Leach will all give our thoughts as normal on what Montreal should do.

Q: Should Montreal match the Jesperi Kotkaniemi offer sheet?

Brian La Rose: 

There are two key questions where the answer determines what Montreal should do. Is there a capable second-line center that can be acquired via trade that will be around for more than a year or two? Also, if there is indeed the possibility of an extension below that AAV with Carolina as has been suggested including by Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman on the latest 31 Thoughts podcast, is that also available to Montreal?

If they are unable to land an impact center elsewhere, they may have to bite the bullet as their younger internal options aren’t ready to step into that type of role; the Jonathan Drouin experiment didn’t work the last time they tried it and there’s no reason to think it will now. And on the extension front, if there’s an acceptable one that can effectively be worked out – nothing can be made official until January – then matching for this season knowing a better contract is on the horizon becomes more palatable.

If there’s a reasonable trade waiting for Bergevin that lands him a capable second center behind Nick Suzuki, then walking away and taking the two picks makes sense. Otherwise, with how weak their depth down the middle would be (and there aren’t any impact centers in the pipeline either), they may very well have to match despite the overpayment and the potential for a much messier cap situation moving forward. With things dragging out this long, it doesn’t seem like a viable trade is presenting itself so matching starts to look a bit more viable as a result for the Canadiens but it will undoubtedly be a tough pill to swallow.

Zach Leach: 

The Canadiens should match the Kotkaniemi offer sheet. Yes, it may not be the more reasonable of the two choices, but then again this was not a reasonable move in the first place. The Hurricanes clearly have interest in Kotkaniemi, but this offer sheet is all about revenge and embarrassment. Carolina made that perfectly clear with the manner in which they announced and subsequently responded to the news of the offer sheet on social media. If Montreal does not match the offer, then they are making the Hurricanes just the second team to successfully offer sheet a player since the turn of the century. They are admitting that Carolina did a better job of poaching a young impact player than they did two years ago. They are surrendering.

Even if Kotkaniemi is not worth $6.1MM, which no one believes that he is right now, the Canadiens are giving up a promising, 21-year-old prospect who they selected with the No. 3 pick just three years ago, and moreover, he is going to what is suddenly a bitter rival. The Hurricanes may already have a handshake agreement on a more accurately-priced extension with Koktaniemi as well. The young center has tremendous possession numbers, has shown flashes of immense scoring ability, and is filling out his frame and becoming a more physical presence. Kotkaniemi could still be a star in the NHL, even if the early results at a very young age have been unspectacular. He is certainly worth more than late first- and third-round picks, especially to a Montreal team that is thin down the middle. Even if the Canadiens flip that draft pick compensation for a replacement for Kotkaniemi, they are doing so with the rest of the league knowing exactly what is going on and will not receive fair value and likely not adequately address the departure.

Sure, there are serious cap implications for the Canadiens. However, in the short term, they can make room for Kotkaniemi to begin the year, even with a full 23-man roster, by placing Shea Weber on LTIR and burying Paul Byron and Cedric Paquette. Montreal could also keep Kotkaniemi, a center they desperately need, and instead trade a superfluous winger such as Artturi Lehkonen. Might things be tight, short-term and long-term, by accommodating Kotkaniemi’s cap hit? Definitely. But if the Hurricanes are willing to make adjustments, then so too should the Canadiens. Allowing Kotkaniemi to walk and replacing him with another high-cost trade acquisition doesn’t make much cap sense either.

Any result in which the Canadiens do not match the offer sheet is a win for the Hurricanes and a loss for the Canadiens, and frankly, Montreal needs a win. This all began with a poorly constructed offer sheet two years ago for Sebastian Aho that ended up being a favor to the Hurricanes. A better offer could have landed the team the franchise center that they have been looking for. Montreal moved on, made different choices with their forwards, and surprised everyone with a run to the Stanley Cup this season. However, they fell short and now are set to return to the lion’s den that is the Atlantic Division with the Tampa Bay Lightning, Boston Bruins, Toronto Maple Leafs, and Florida Panthers. Their off-season has been defined by a controversial draft choice and several free agent contracts whose values were worthy of skepticism. The Canadiens do not need another blemish this season. Maybe Kotkaniemi doesn’t pan out in the long term, but this is about more than just one player. It is about the image of the club and the morale in the locker room. The Canadiens need to assert themselves and demand some respect when the Hurricanes showed little. They can do that by matching the offer.

Josh Erickson: 

There are so many reasons why Montreal’s matching of the Kotkaniemi offer sheet would be completely nonsensical.

Cap space is the most obvious and pressing issue. While Montreal could currently accomodate Kotkaniemi’s $6.1MM cap hit with their LTIR situation, they wouldn’t be able to all season. Byron won’t be out the entire year and will come off LTIR at some point, leaving only Weber’s $7.85MM cap hit on LTIR. With Montreal already spending $2.27MM into their LTIR pool, an additional $6.1MM caused by Kotkaniemi wouldn’t make the team cap-compliant. Even as it stands, Montreal’s active roster only has 19 skaters (Chris Wideman being the likely healthy scratch).

It also doesn’t make a lot of sense to drastically change the team’s makeup to retain Kotkaniemi. The team’s demonstrated a commitment to head coach Dominique Ducharme, who hasn’t developed the best relationship with Kotkaniemi at this point in his career. Selling off assets in order to retain a player who’s future with the club remains uncertain past this season, especially one with a $6.1MM qualifying offer, doesn’t seem like the best position to take from an asset management standpoint.

It all stands to say that the first- and third-round picks are far more valuable to the team at this point in time than Kotkaniemi at a $6.1MM cap hit and qualifying offer. There’s no guarantee that Montreal would be able to receive that return for Kotkaniemi in a future trade.

Gavin Lee:

As you can see from my colleagues, this situation has produced drastically different opinions. That’s exactly what a well-constructed offer sheet is supposed to do; make it a difficult decision on the original team, who then will have to take a gamble one way or the other. There’s no clear answer here for the Canadiens like there was with the Aho offer sheet two years ago.

The simple fact is that Montreal is trying to win right now. You don’t go out and sign Mike Hoffman and David Savard if you’re willing to spend a year developing young talent. The Canadiens want to give Carey Price the best chance to win a Stanley Cup right now, and frankly, I don’t see how letting Kotkaneimi walk helps in that pursuit. Unless there is a legitimate difference-maker out there that you think you can land with those additional assets–someone like Jack Eichel–sure, let him walk and flip the picks. But if you’re going to turn around and trade for someone like Christian Dvorak? Just match the offer and take your chances with an extension negotiation down the road.

The idea that Kotkaniemi is a bust is misguided. If anything, it’s just that his development was rushed by the Canadiens in the first place due to how much they believed in his talent. He turned 21 in July and has already played in 200 NHL games, including 29 postseason contests. He may never become the Anze Kopitar that people compared him to in his draft year–which was always a bit ridiculous–but the idea that he’ll never become more than a third-line center is still very premature.

There is also a mechanism that could get the $6.1MM qualifying offer down a bit, though that may provide little comfort to fans that have already made up their mind on Kotkaniemi. If he fails to live up to that kind of a contract, the Canadiens could elect salary arbitration in the usually unused first window in lieu of a qualifying offer and retain his rights with 85%–$5.185MM–of his contract value. Suddenly that becomes a little more palatable, though it can only be done once in a player’s career and it doesn’t guarantee that salary.

It’s not a situation I’d want to be in, but unless Montreal has a replacement–and a good one, not just a middle-six player–waiting in the wings,  they should match the offer.

Poll: Should The Canadiens Match The Jesperi Kotkaniemi Offer Sheet?

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The biggest news in the hockey world right now is the offer sheet that the Carolina Hurricanes signed with Jesperi Kotkaniemi. The Montreal Canadiens have just a few more days to decide whether or not to match the one-year $6.1MM contract and keep Kotaniemi or let him go to the Hurricanes in exchange for first- and third-round picks.

The decision, some say, is an easy one—it’s the answer that many disagree on.

The Canadiens could just wave goodbye, collect their picks and go after another center, knowing that Kotkaniemi is not worth anywhere near that $6.1MM price tag this season. The deal would force either team to extend a qualifying offer of the same amount moving forward, though if the player is willing, an extension could also be worked out at a lower number. Two picks could help Montreal in a search for a different player, with many pointing to Jack Eichel as the name they could pursue with some added draft capital.

Because he has disappointed up until now, it’s easy to forget just how young and talented Kotkaniemi is. He turned 21 just last month and already has 200 NHL games under his belt. He has scored just 84 points in those games, including 12 in 29 postseason appearances, but there is obviously room to grow. Even if he was perhaps a mistake at third-overall in 2018–the existence of Brady Tkachuk and Quinn Hughes would certainly argue so–that doesn’t mean he’s a worthless asset. In fact, it seems likely that the Canadiens could have gotten at least a late-first and a third for him had they decided to trade Kotkaneimi this offseason, probably more.

But now that the Hurricanes have forced their hand, it’s one or the other. Overpay a player who has not lived up to the hype to this point and is obviously not fully trusted by the coaching staff, or take that package (and only that package) as compensation. If they do match it, Montreal can’t trade Kotkaniemi for a year, meaning there’s no sign-and-flip coming.

For whatever you think of the player, it’s not easy to watch a third-overall pick walk out the door just six weeks after his 21st birthday. There’s a very real chance that Kotkaniemi not only lives up to his billing as a top-six center, but he could still be exactly what the Canadiens are looking for as a long-term complement to Nick Suzuki down the middle.

It’s not an easy decision for Montreal GM Marc Bergevin, but perhaps it is for you! Cast your vote below and explain your thoughts in the comment section.

[Mobile users click here to vote!]

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Notes From The Jesperi Kotkaniemi Offer Sheet

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Offer sheets in the NHL are few and far between which makes it notable any time one is signed.  Rarer still is one that has a player signing for as much above market value as Jesperi Kotkaniemi did when he signed his one-year, $6,100,015 tender from the Hurricanes on Saturday.  Here are some notes from around the hockey world on the move.

  • Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic mentions (Twitter link) that Carolina and Montreal did have trade talks regarding Kotkaniemi although clearly, they weren’t able to come to an agreement.
  • Sportsnet’s Eric Engels writes that Montreal’s decision is a lot harder than the one the Hurricanes had two years ago when the Canadiens tendered an offer sheet to Sebastian Aho. He suggests Arizona’s Christian Dvorak as someone they’d be wise to have discussions about over the one-week matching period to see if some of the draft capital they’d get by not matching could be flipped for him.
  • Renaud Lavoie of TVA Sports relays (Twitter links) that league executives pegged Kotkaniemi’s actual value on a one-year deal no higher than $2.2MM, providing some perspective on how much of a perceived overpayment this contract is. He adds that the idea to tender Kotkaniemi the offer sheet came from Hurricanes owner Tom Dundon, not GM Don Waddell.
  • Arpon Basu of The Athletic writes (subscription link) that Montreal’s bigger concern should be that Kotkaniemi, who had spoken about wanting to stay with the Canadiens for the long haul in the past, was willing to go along with the offer sheet. He feels Montreal is in a no-win situation by either needing to pay Kotkaniemi well above market value and potentially messing up their salary structure or losing someone they hoped would be a franchise cornerstone for somewhat of an underwhelming return.
  • Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports in the latest 31 Thoughts podcast (audio link) that Montreal wasn’t close on a contract with Kotkaniemi’s camp and was focused on a bridge contract which is something the 21-year-old wasn’t interested in. He also believes that Carolina had discussions with Kotkaniemi on the framework of a long-term extension that could be signed once eligible that would come with a price tag below this one.  Of course, Kotkaniemi wouldn’t have to agree to that knowing that he’ll need to be qualified at $6.1MM next summer.
  • While Carolina would technically be over the salary cap if the Canadiens don’t match, Sara Civian of The Athletic suggests (subscription link) that it may not be too difficult for them to get back under by clearing out the remaining two years at $4MM on defenseman Jake Gardiner’s contract. Considering he has cleared waivers before, they’d likely need to provide some retention on that contract to make a trade work.

Morning Notes: Kotkaniemi, Tkachuk, Brown

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The Carolina Hurricanes shot back at the Montreal Canadiens yesterday by submitting an offer sheet for Jesperi Kotkaniemi, but even if they hadn’t there was some concern over the young center’s future in Montreal. Darren Dreger of TSN tweets that earlier this summer, some close to Kotkaniemi predicted that he had already played his last game with the Canadiens. The interesting part, however, is that now he has signed an offer sheet, Montreal can’t trade him for a year even if they decide to match it.

As CapFriendly explains, it would basically mean that the young forward would get a no-trade clause for a year, meaning he’d be earning that entire $6.1MM contract in Montreal. The Hurricanes apparently tried to trade for Kotkaniemi before tendering the offer sheet, but have now tied the Canadiens’ hands in more ways than one.

  • The Ottawa Senators have a restricted free agent of their own still to sign, as Brady Tkachuk still doesn’t have a deal for this season. Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia writes that though things are quiet on that front, it is believed that the Senators are trying for an eight-year contract for their young winger. There’s a brand new comparable to bring up in those talks after Andrei Svechnikov signed his eight-year, $62MM extension in Carolina. Svechnikov was selected just two picks ahead of Tkachuk in 2018 and the two forwards have very similar career stats to this point. Garrioch suggests that if Tkachuk does sign an eight-year deal, it very well may come with the captain’s “C.”
  • At the very end of his piece on Tkachuk, Garrioch includes another short note about RFA forward Logan Brown. The scribe suggests that Brown “could be dealt before camp” and remains unsigned at the moment. Now 23, the 11th overall pick from 2016 has just 30 games of NHL experience under his belt, something he and his agents have expressed frustration about in the past. The 6’6″ forward has played very well at the AHL level, racking up 79 points in 94 games, but has never received a lengthy chance in the NHL. It’s hard to see exactly where he fits in now that the Senators have so many other young forwards and Brown is now eligible for waivers. A fresh start makes sense, though obviously, it remains to be seen if GM Pierre Dorion feels the same.

Hurricanes Tender Offer Sheet To Canadiens’ Jesperi Kotkaniemi

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The old adage surrounding offer sheets is that if one team messes with another team’s restricted free agents, they open themselves up to attack as well. After the Montreal Canadiens tendered an offer sheet to Carolina Hurricanes star Sebastian Aho two years ago, they are now facing the consequences. The ’Canes have returned the favor, announcing (in French at that) they have extended an offer sheet to Habs’ center Jesperi Kotkaniemi, which he has signed. The offer is for one year and $6,100,015. If you thought this wasn’t all about retribution, here is the kicker: the deal also includes a $20 signing bonus – Aho’s jersey number. Also this. The Canadiens have seven days to respond. They would receive first- and third-round picks if they elect not to match.

There are of course salary cap implication aplenty with this offer sheet. Kotkaniemi’s $6.1MM AAV would put Montreal approximately $8.38MM over the salary cap for 22 players with their expected LTIR relief from Shea Weber only coming in at $7.86MM. In order to match the offer sheet, the Canadiens will have to shed salary this season, enough to fit the overage and another player to round out the roster. Perhaps even more importantly, their starting number for negotiations with Kotkaniemi again next off-season begins with a $6.1MM qualifying offer. For a team with numerous expensive, long-term contracts, that simply may not be palatable. Of course, the Hurricanes face these same risks. The team would go approximately $1.52MM over the salary cap by adding Kotkaniemi, albeit with a full 23-man roster. They also could easily open up the space if they opt to again waive defenseman Jake Gardiner and his $4.05MM cap hit. The more pressing question then is whether Kotkaniemi lives up to his cap hit, which will also serve as his new QO. At the cost of a first and a third, Carolina will want to make sure Kotkaniemi is not just a one-year rental.

This all boils down to how much the Habs value Kotkaniemi, as the Hurricanes – while they had ulterior motives – clearly felt that the $6.1MM cap hit was warranted for the 21-year-old forward. Kotkaniemi, the third overall pick in 2018, has certainly shown flashes of star power. While his regular season numbers are unspectacular with 62 points in 171 NHL games, his playoff production has been stellar with nine goals and twelve points in 29 games. And while Kotkaniemi is still working on some of the fundamentals of the center position, he is a phenomenal possession player and is starting to fill out his frame and become a more physical presence. Kotkaniemi’s value is all about upside at his age. Both teams certainly see it, but only one team has ponied up the cost thus far (at least for one year). All but one offer sheet has been matched since the turn of the century. Will Montreal follow suit?

Though one of the most entertaining stories in roster building in recent memory, and not just in hockey, Carolina’s vicious response to Montreal’s attempted poaching of Aho two years ago is only likely to further deplete the likelihood of offer sheets, which are already considered a MacGuffin to most. Enjoy this while it last, it could be the final one for some time.

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