PHR Playoff Primer: Dallas Stars vs. Seattle Kraken
With the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs now underway, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? We begin our second-round coverage with the Western Conference matchup between the Dallas Stars and Seattle Kraken.
The Seattle fanbase waited a long time for a team to cheer for and the Seattle Kraken have given them something to cheer about in just their second season by knocking off the defending Stanley Cup champions in seven games. The Dallas Stars on the other hand were able to dispatch of the Minnesota Wild in just six games on the back of incredible goaltending from Jake Oettinger. Their second-round matchup will mark the first time the two teams have met in the playoffs.
What a difference a season makes. A year ago, Kraken general manager Ron Francis looked as though he’d butchered the expansion draft as Seattle finished near the bottom of the NHL standings. But, fast forward one year later and the Kraken have their first 100-point season, a playoff series victory, and the opportunity for more. For Dallas, they are just three years removed from a Stanley Cup finals appearance in which they lost in six games to the Tampa Bay Lightning. While the Stars do still have several of the core pieces from that 2020 team, they’ve added a lot of elite young talent to mix in with their older core pieces.
It’s hard to get excited for a series in which the two teams have never met in the playoffs before, but Dallas quietly had one of the most exciting series of the first round, and Seattle provided ample fireworks of their own. This series might not have the draw that some other series may have, but there will be plenty of star power on the ice for Dallas, while Seattle has one of the most balanced lineups in the entire NHL and can outwork almost any team.
Regular Season Performance
Dallas Stars: 51-22-9, 111 points, +43 goal differential
Seattle Kraken: 46-28-8, 100 points, +33 goal differential.
Head-To-Head
March 11, 2023: Dallas 4, Seattle 3 (OT)
March 13, 2023: Dallas 5, Seattle 2
March 21, 2023: Seattle 5, Dallas 4 (OT)
Dallas takes the season series 2-0-1
Team Storylines
One might not think these teams would have much in the way of a rivalry, however for ten days in mid-March they saw a lot of each other. The teams played three times and developed a bit of hate in that time. While a lot has happened since then, there could be carryover.
The biggest storyline in this series will be the high-end skill of the Dallas Stars against the workmanlike attitude of the Seattle Kraken. Dallas has the offense and the goaltending to make a deep run in these playoffs and have much higher expectations than the Kraken, however Seattle has shown an incredible amount of heart this season and are playing with house money at this point. Sometimes the pressure can cause a team to wilt, and sometimes no pressure at all can make a team play fast and loose. It’ll be interesting to see it play out.
The Dallas Stars play with a ton of skill and a ton of speed, led by Jason Robertson, they can put the puck in your net in several ways and can push the pace, or slow down the game if they need to grind out a win. They still possess Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin and a few other players from the 2020 run to the finals that know how to get the job done in the playoffs. They have the confidence in their group and their goalie to get it done. Seattle on the other can also play with a lot of pace, they come at you in waves, line after line can contribute on the offensive end. Every line can score, but they don’t have the gamebreakers that Dallas has.
On the backend, both teams have strong blue lines that can help generate offense. Seattle has the size advantage with a couple of towering forces that can crash and bang and clear the front of the net, but Dallas may possess the strength advantage with a physically imposing lineup in which every man in the unit is over six foot. Dallas has the most elite puck mover in Miro Heiskanen, but this year’s version of Vince Dunn isn’t far off, and Seattle has a better collection of point producers and a deeper unit of six. While the Stars defense can do it all, Seattle’s defense can all do it. Coach Dave Hakstol has somehow managed to spread his defensive minutes about as evenly as you will ever see for a defensive unit. I would give the advantage to Seattle in this area as they seem to find an extra gear late in games and have a good track record of shutting the door on their opponents.
In goal, Dallas boasts one of the best goaltenders in the world in Jake Oettinger. His playoff resume is short, but it is strong. He was dominant in the first round, and should he play at that level in this series, Dallas will be tough to beat. Regular season numbers would tell us that Oettinger gives Dallas a huge advantage over Seattle in net, but in round one Seattle received elite goaltending as well. Philipp Grubauer finally gave Seattle the goaltending they thought they were getting when they signed the former Avalanche goalie to a six year $35.4MM contract in 2021. The German netminder hasn’t been able to sustain much success over his two years with the Kraken, but if he can build on his impressive stretch of play in round one, Seattle will have a punchers chance to advance.
Prediction
Anytime an elite goaltender is involved in a series it is always difficult to bet against them. Jake Oettinger has proven himself to be one of the best in the world and so far, has shown an ability to rise to the occasion when the games mean the most. If he can steal a game or two in this series, it will give Dallas a sizeable advantage and could be the difference in the series.
The other element that comes into play is experience. Dallas has a ton of players who have been here before, and while Seattle has some veterans with Stanley Cup playoff experience, it isn’t on the same level. This small detail could be the difference maker for the Stars if they can draw on that experience and find that extra push.
The prediction: Dallas win in seven games.
Wild Notes: Gustavsson, Sundqvist, Zuccarello
Michael Russo of The Athletic is reporting that Filip Gustavsson was the first goalie off at Minnesota Wild practice today indicating that he will likely get the start in game six tonight against the Dallas Stars. Gustavsson has been between the pipes for four of the Wild’s five playoff games and has given up just nine goals on 125 shots. Although those numbers are sparking, Gustavsson has struggled in each of his last two starts giving up three goals in each game on just 24 shots. This drop in his play coupled with the brilliant play of Dallas netminder Jake Oettinger has Minnesota on the ropes as they will face elimination in game six tonight.
There was some speculation that Minnesota could turn to veteran goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury to start game six, but Fleury has struggled in his last four starts dating back to early April. The former Vezina winner has only started one game in the series, a game two loss in which he gave up seven goals on 31 shots. Gustavsson had superior numbers to Fleury in the regular season as well and may even garner some Vezina consideration come awards season.
In other Minnesota notes:
- Michael Russo tweeted that Oskar Sundqvist could possibly play tonight for the Wild. Sundqvist hasn’t dressed since game two of the Dallas series and has a goal in just a single game in these playoffs. The two-time Stanley Cup winner was healthy scratched for game three and hasn’t seen game action since. The 29-year-old Swede came over from the Detroit Red Wings in a trade deadline move for a fourth-round pick and looked to be a fit putting up seven points in 15 games. However, in the playoffs the Wild have opted for more toughness and have kept Ryan Reaves in the lineup over Sundqvist.
- Russo also tweeted that Wild forward Mats Zuccarello will likely be out of the lineup, or best-case scenario he will be a game time decision. The Norway native didn’t skate yesterday with the team and is dealing with an undisclosed ailment. The Wild have been tight lipped about the situation and at this point there are more questions than answers. Zuccarello has been fantastic for the Wild this season with 67 points in 78 games during the regular season and has followed that up with two goals and three assists through five playoff games. Should he be unable to dress, the Wild will be hard pressed to replicate his production in the most important game of their season.
West Notes: Predators, Pietrangelo, Oettinger
The Nashville Predators home game tomorrow against the Anaheim Ducks will go on as scheduled after a water main break in the arena forced the team to postpone their Friday and Saturday night games. While team president Sean Henry said that “most fan-facing amenities will be functional,” he noted that the complete extent of repairs and restorations to Bridgestone will take months.
The league has yet to reschedule Nashville’s missed games against Colorado and Columbus, but Bridgestone will get a bit of a break on the hockey side soon. While there are occasional concerts there, Nashville’s home game against Anaheim is their last until December 9.
- According to the team, Vegas Golden Knights defenseman Alex Pietrangelo didn’t suit up for tonight’s game against Columbus for personal reasons. Pietrangelo is having an electric start to his third season in Vegas with 21 points through 23 games. Hopefully, everything is well with Pietrangelo and his family.
- Jake Oettinger was expected to start tonight for the Dallas Stars, but he’ll be relegated to a backup role as he deals with an illness, according to the team. He’s run into a bit of a cold streak his past few games, with his season totals dropping to a still very respectable .917 save percentage and 2.52 goals-against average. He’ll likely start in Dallas’ next matchup against Anaheim on December 1.
Dallas Stars Re-Assign Matej Blumel; Expected To Recall Matt Murray
Nov 18: The Stars have sent Blumel back down, this time after playing four games and scoring his first NHL goal. With Scott Wedgewood‘s injury last night, Murray is expected to be recalled.
Nov 9: Dallas Stars general manager Jim Nill announced today that the team has recalled forward Matej Blumel from the AHL’s Texas Stars. In a corresponding transaction, the team also loaned goalie Matt Murray to Texas.
Murray returning to Texas indicates that star netminder Jake Oettinger will be ready to return to the lineup soon. Oettinger has been out with a lower-body injury since leaving an October 29 game against the New York Rangers. His .952 save percentage and 1.40 goals-against average remain first in the NHL.
The “other” Matt Murray didn’t receive any game action during his week-and-a-half call-up, but he returns to Texas where he excelled with a 2-2-0 record and a .926 save percentage to start the year.
Blumel could be in line to make his NHL debut soon after lighting it up with 11 points in his first nine AHL games. The 6′ 0″, 198 lb forward spent the past three years with HC Dynamo Pardubice in the Czech Extraliga after the Edmonton Oilers selected him 100th overall in 2019. They failed to sign him to an entry-level contract, though, paving the way for the Stars to sign him last summer. He was called up to Dallas for three days in late October without making an appearance.
Dallas Stars Sign Matt Murray
6:44 pm: CapFriendly reports that Murray’s one-year contract carries the league-minimum $750K cap hit, and pays him $82,500 at the minor-league level.
3:08 pm: In what will be a confusing move for many casual hockey fans, the Dallas Stars have signed goaltender Matt Murray to a one-year entry-level contract. This Murray is not the Matt Murray that plays for the Toronto Maple Leafs, but an undrafted netminder who was playing for their AHL affiliate.
With Jake Oettinger sidelined due to a lower-body injury and the Stars without the necessary cap space to recall Anton Khudobin, the team has been forced into handing out another NHL contract. Murray, 24, is the beneficiary of the situation, though his play at the AHL level has certainly warranted consideration for an entry-level contract anyway.
The former UMass-Amherst standout has a .926 save percentage in five appearances with the Texas Stars this year, after joining the club late last season. In his 11 career appearances that save percentage actually climbs to .939, an impressive statistic for any goaltender, let alone an undrafted talent just entering professional hockey.
A one-year entry-level deal will mean that Murray can be recalled to the NHL to serve as backup for Scott Wedgewood until Oettinger returns, or until the team creates enough cap space to recall Khudobin.
Jake Oettinger To Be Re-Evaluated In A Week
The Dallas Stars have lost young star goaltender Jake Oettinger for the next little while, after he pulled himself out of Saturday’s game. General manager Jim Nill told reporters including Saad Yousuf of The Athletic that Oettinger will be re-evaluated in a week’s time for the lower-body injury he is dealing with.
Now, the Stars face a difficult issue. The team cannot recall Anton Khudobin without making a significant cap move, like putting Oettinger on long-term injured reserve. The only other two netminders signed to NHL contracts are Adam Scheel and Remi Poirier, who both are playing in the ECHL. Matthew Murray, Khudobin’s partner, is signed to an AHL contract and would have to be signed to an NHL deal in order to be recalled. None of the three has any NHL experience.
That mean’s it is the Scott Wedgewood show, for the time being, something that would’ve been difficult to predict when he was being claimed off waivers by the Arizona Coyotes almost exactly a year ago. While Wedgewood has shown an ability to play at the NHL level in the past, he only actually has 80 appearances and is 0-2-1 this season with an .880 save percentage.
These in-between injuries – ones that don’t keep a player out for more than ten games, thus removing the possibility of LTIR – have become increasingly difficult for some teams to deal with, given cap constraints. As clubs continue to push their salary chart right up to the cap ceiling, they remove any room for in-season maneuvering.
For Oettinger, it’s a difficult break during what was shaping up to be his true breakout season. After starring in last year’s playoffs, he had an incredible .952 save percentage so far, only allowing nine goals on 186 shots. Hopefully the 23-year-old will be able to quickly recover from this injury and get back in the net to continue his early Vezina contention.
Injury Notes: Oettinger, Drysdale, Ellis
A serious bit of concerning news came out of the first game on today’s schedule, with the Dallas Stars tweeting that netminder Jake Oettinger was questionable to return to their game against the New York Rangers with a lower-body injury. It’s not apparent when Oettinger suffered the injury, and he was replaced in the game by Scott Wedgewood with 13:37 remaining in the second period. Luckily for the team, he was healthy enough to return for the third period but did not play, staying on the bench while Wedgewood continued.
Oettinger has been nothing short of spectacular to open 2022-23. His unreal .960 save percentage and 1.17 goals-against average lead the league through six starts, and he’s undeniably the biggest reason behind the team’s 5-2-1 start to the season. Hopefully, the injury doesn’t keep him out of any further game action past this point.
- Young defenseman Jamie Drysdale was not on the ice today at Anaheim Ducks practice, tweets The Athletic’s Eric Stephens. Drysdale played 7:22 in last night’s game against the Vegas Golden Knights before leaving the game with an upper-body injury, suffered on a hit in the corner from Knights forward William Carrier. The sixth overall selection in 2020 had yet to register a point through eight games this season but had received upwards of 20 minutes per game of action on multiple occurrences.
- According to the AHL, St. Louis Blues goaltender Colten Ellis has been assigned to the ECHL’s Tulsa Oilers after being activated from season-opening injured reserve (SOIR) three days ago. Ellis last year was loaned to the Worcester Railers, where he posted a .905 save percentage and a 15-13-5 record. Drafted in the third round in 2019, Ellis sits fifth on the organizational goalie depth chart behind Jordan Binnington, Thomas Greiss, Joel Hofer, and Vadim Zherenko.
Snapshots: Miller, Sabres, Oettinger
As part of his seven-year, $56MM contract that was signed yesterday, Canucks forward J.T. Miller received a full no-move clause. That in itself isn’t noteworthy but he was eligible to have it apply to the upcoming season as part of the contract as well since he’s of UFA age. However, CapFriendly reports (Twitter link) that this was not the case. As a result, Miller does not have any sort of trade protection between now and July 1st when the NMC kicks in so if things don’t do well next season or Vancouver decides to shake things up, Miller will be trade-eligible even with his new deal in place.
Elsewhere around the hockey world:
- Sabres GM Kevyn Adams told Lance Lysowski of The Buffalo News that part of the reason they weren’t overly active in free agency this summer was to give them the flexibility to extend their internal core as their contracts come up. We saw an example of that recently with the seven-year agreement with center Tage Thompson while Dylan Cozens is a year away from a pricey new deal of his own; Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power, and Peyton Krebs are extension-eligible next summer. If Adams intends to work out long-term deals with all of those players, they’ll need all the flexibility they can get so their discipline this summer will be worth it later.
- While Jake Oettinger ultimately settled for a three-year, $12MM bridge deal, the netminder told reporters including Matthew DeFranks of the Dallas Morning News that has made it clear to his representatives that he wants to stay in Dallas for the long haul. The contract still represents quite the raise for someone that actually spent a month in the minors last season before being recalled for good in mid-November and his AAV will get a notable bump three years from now as he’ll be owed a $4.8MM qualifying offer.
Dallas Stars Sign Jake Oettinger
The Dallas Stars have signed restricted free agent goaltender Jake Oettinger to a bridge deal, inking him for the next three years. The deal will come with an average annual value of $4MM, and leave him an arbitration-eligible RFA at expiry. General manager Jim Nill explained just how important Oettinger is to the team:
Jake’s performance spoke for itself last season. He has elite physical ability and presence in the net, while also exhibiting phenomenal mental strength in high-pressure situations. Jake’s poise and character off the ice have made him a leader in our locker room. He has shown that he has the skill, work ethic, and poise to excel at the NHL level. He was a key part of the team’s success last season, and we’re excited to see him continue to grow here in Dallas.
Oettinger, 23, was one of three players the Stars selected in 2017 that have gone on to become franchise cornerstones. He was picked between Miro Heiskanen and Jason Robertson that day, a draft that essentially changed the direction of the team thanks to some savvy scouting. The big netminder took a few years to develop but now sits as the Stars’ no-doubt starter for next season, after recording a .914 save percentage in 48 appearances last year.
It was the playoffs where he really showed what he could do, though, posting a .954 in seven games to almost steal the first round from the Calgary Flames. With a bright future ahead of him and Robertson still to sign, a bridge deal always made sense for the young netminder. A $4MM cap hit still pays him handsomely while setting Oettinger up for an even bigger deal a few years down the line.
For Dallas, kicking the can down the road a few years was integral, as Jamie Benn‘s $9.5MM will be coming off the books after the 2024-25 season. Esa Lindell, Ryan Suter, and Radek Faksa are also scheduled to be unrestricted free agents that summer, meaning Nill and the rest of the front office will finally get some flexibility back. A longer contract is expected for Robertson, who has already established himself as an elite offensive player in the league after scoring 41 goals and 79 points this season.
The Stars still have more than $6.3MM for that contract and could create more by waiving someone before the season begins (or sending one of their entry-level players back down). All of that space will likely be needed for Robertson’s contract, meaning this deal for Oettinger was never going to be able to get much bigger.
While there is no guarantee that he lives up to it, early returns on the big Minnesota native are promising. If Oettinger takes another step forward next season and starts putting up .920 save percentages, a $4MM cap hit will look like quite the bargain.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Remaining Restricted Free Agents
August 28: The list below has been updated to reflect the remaining restricted free agents as of August 28, 2022.
August 12: We’re now coming up on one month since the start of free agency, and two months until the start of the 2022-23 regular season. Teams have mostly completed their offseason business, though a handful still have big issues to solve at some point in the next few weeks.
The arbitration schedule has finished and many of the front offices are slowing down for the rest of the summer in preparation for a long upcoming campaign. That is, except for the teams that still have restricted free agents to sign.
According to CapFriendly, 29 players who received qualifying offers are still unsigned, though that list includes a few New York Islanders minor leaguers who very well could have already agreed to contracts. The Islanders do also have Noah Dobson, who is among the most important names on the list after his breakout 51-point campaign.
Dobson, 22, looks as though he will be a building block for the team through the next decade, and seems positioned for a long-term contract at some point in the near future.
Beyond New York, many eyes are on the Dallas Stars, where Jason Robertson and Jake Oettinger remain unsigned. Other than Miro Heiskanen, there may not be any more important players on the Stars roster than the star forward and emerging goaltender. Both would command hefty cap hits on long-term deals, and given the $10MM in cap space remaining for Dallas, may end up with bridge contracts when things are all said and done.
There are other full-time NHLers among the group too. Alexander Romanov, Kirby Dach, Filip Zadina, Ryan McLeod, and Alex Formenton all played at least 70 games this season for their respective clubs, and are without deals to this point. The full list is below:
Arizona Coyotes
Calgary Flames
Buffalo Sabres
Dallas Stars
Jake Oettinger
Jason Robertson
Edmonton Oilers
Los Angeles Kings
Montreal Canadiens
New York Islanders
Ottawa Senators
Erik Brannstrom
Alex Formenton
Philadelphia Flyers
San Jose Sharks
Seattle Kraken
Toronto Maple Leafs
Vegas Golden Knights
Of note, most of these players are eligible to sign an offer sheet, if they choose to. Only Romanov and Cates are what are called 10.2(c) players, which are not eligible to negotiate with any team other than their own.
There are also several players like Josef Korenar, who are technically still restricted free agents relative to the NHL but have signed overseas. These rights will be held by their team after issuing qualifying offers but there is no need to list them with the above group.
Any of these restricted free agents must sign a contract before December 1 to be eligible to play in the NHL this season. Though training camp provides a soft deadline, that is the actual threshold that negotiations need to be completed by, or else a player could miss an entire year.