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Playoff Primer

PHR Playoff Primer: Dallas Stars vs Vegas Golden Knights

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With the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs now underway, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? Our Conference Finals coverage continues with the Western Conference matchup between the Dallas Stars and Vegas Golden Knights.

The Stanley Cup Playoffs semifinal matchups are set and the Sun Belt franchises will take center stage. While the Carolina Hurricanes will take on the Florida Panthers in the Eastern Conference Final, it will be the Dallas Stars and Vegas Golden Knights facing off to be the western conference champion.

While the Western Conference Final features two teams in non-traditional hockey markets, these are no cinderella squads on an unlikely run. In fact, the Stars and Golden Knights are two powerhouses who will go toe-to-toe in what promises to be an exciting, fast-paced and highly skilled matchup.

The Golden Knights finished atop the Pacific Division standings and were the top ranked team in the entire western conference with a record of 51-22-9 which gave them 111 points. The Stars were not far behind, finishing second in the Central Division with 108 points, just one back of the Colorado Avalanche for top spot in the division.

Regular Season Performance

Vegas: 51-22-9, 111 points, +43 goal differential
Dallas: 47-21-14, 108 points, +67 goal differential

Head-To-Head

January 16, 2023: Dallas 4, Vegas 0
February 25, 2023: Dallas 3, Vegas 2 (SO)
April 8, 2023: Dallas 2, Vegas 1 (SO)

Dallas takes season series 3-0-0

Team Storylines

One question for Vegas is whether or not star winger Mark Stone has another strong series in him. He is clearly dealing with back discomfort and appeared frustrated at times in the postseason as teams targeted him. He remained calm enough to score a pair of goals and four points in six games while playing great defensive hockey as usual. Can he continue to play well throughout the postseason? We shall soon find out.

Speaking of great defensive hockey, one question for the Stars is can they break through the Golden Knights defensive shield at even strength? The Edmonton Oilers could not get anything done at 5-on-5 against the Golden Knights, even with two of the league’s best players on their roster. The Oilers, the NHL’s highest scoring team in the regular season, scored ten goals in the final four games of their series with the Golden Knights, lost three of them and were eliminated.

The Stars have shown they have the depth to score at even strength. In their seven game series victory over the Seattle Kraken, they scored 22 goals at even strength, which is an average of just over three per game.

Will they be able to continue that pace in round three? Joe Pavelski is scoring at will this postseason with eight goals in eight games played. Roope Hintz leads the way for the Stars with 19 points in 13 games. Jason Robertson, Max Domi, Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, and Evgeni Dadonov all have nine or more points in 13 games as well giving the Stars tremendous scoring depth up front.

Flipping back to the Golden Knights, they have plenty of scoring depth of their own. Jack Eichel leads the way with 14 points in 11 games so far in the playoffs. Stone is also over a point per game with 12. Chandler Stephenson, Jonathan Marchessault, Ivan Barbashev, Reilly Smith andWilliam Karlsson all have eight or more points, with scoring coming from each of the team’s top three lines.

Both teams bolster deep blue lines as well. The Golden Knights rely heavily on Alex Pietrangelo, Shea Theodore andAlec Martinez who form a tremendous top three. Nic Hague, Brayden McNabb and Zach Whitecloud round out an extremely deep and talented group of two-way defenders who can chip in with plenty of offense while playing fantastic defensive hockey.

The Stars have a nice mix of veteran savvy and youthful exuberance on the back end. Ryan Suter and Colin Miller may not be as effective as they once were, but they provide a steady defensive presence and leadership qualities. Miro Heiskanen is an elite defenseman who could garner Conn Smythe votes if he keeps playing the way he has so far in the postseason. The 23 year old is joined by 21 year old Thomas Harley, who quickly emerged as a key defender and has seven points in 13 playoff games.

Perhaps the biggest question heading into this series is which goaltender can bounce back the quickest? Neither were spectacular in the second round, but getting hot for the next two weeks would lead their team to the Stanley Cup Finals.

Jake Oettinger started every game for the Stars in their series win over the Kraken, but he had a 3.50 GAA and a .877 save percentage in those seven games. Adin Hill took over from Laurent Brossoit and started the final three games of the series after performing well in relief in Game 2 and 3. He allowed seven goals in his first two starts but then shut the door, stopping 38 of 40 shots to help the Knights advance with a Game 6 win.

Will Oettinger return to form and be the best goalie in the series? Or will Hill use his most recent start as a jumping off point for a great series? The answers to those questions could determine who moves on to the Stanley Cup Finals.

Dallas Stars head coach Peter Deboer is in familiar territory in this series. He was hired as the coach of the Golden Knights in January of 2020 and helped them reach the Western Conference Final where they lost to the… Dallas Stars. This rematch now sees Deboer on the other bench, and he will look to get back at his former team for firing him.

Prediction

Two deep teams with no weaknesses that jump out at you will lead to a long series. Both teams have deep blue lines, both teams will get scoring from up and down their lineup, both teams can defend well and play a physical style of hockey.

Also important at this time of year is both teams have remained quite healthy. Everyone is dealing with bumps and bruises but there are no long-term injuries to star players on either lineup right now. That makes the margin for error quite slim on either side.

When it all boils down, goaltending could be the difference, and Oettinger seems to be the more likely choice to have a strong seven game series. That could give the slightest of edges to the Stars in a series that promises to be a long and memorable one.

Prediction: Stars win in seven games.

PHR Playoff Primer: Carolina Hurricanes vs. Florida Panthers

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With the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs now underway, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? We begin our Conference Finals coverage with the Eastern Conference matchup between the Carolina Hurricanes and the Florida Panthers.

The Southeast Division reigns supreme, just as we all thought.

After more than 25 years, these former divisional rivals will square up in their first-ever playoff matchup against each other, with higher stakes than anyone expected. Both teams are knocking on the door of their first Stanley Cup Final appearance in decades after building up to this moment for years.

Both teams have also overcome some long odds to get here but under different circumstances. Some had written off the Hurricanes entering their Second Round series against the New Jersey Devils, with injuries to three of their best scorers hampering their chances against a Devils team that had overcome a 2-0 series deficit against Igor Shesterkin and the New York Rangers.

Needless to say, it didn’t matter. The Hurricanes advanced thanks to a Game 5 overtime winner from Jesper Fast, a testament to the depth that’s stepped up and gotten them this far.

The Panthers, on the other hand, finished 17th in the NHL during the regular season and rattled off seven-game and five-game series wins against two of the best teams in the league. It’s thanks largely in part to netminder Sergei Bobrovsky, who’s overcome playoff demons past and is, out of nowhere, earning his keep as a $10MM goalie.

Can Florida’s Cinderella run continue and get them back to the Stanley Cup Final for the second time in franchise history?

Regular Season Performance

Carolina: 52-21-9, 113 points, +53 goal differential
Florida: 42-32-8, 92 points, +17 goal differential

Head-To-Head

November 9, 2022: Carolina 0, Florida 3
December 30, 2022: Florida 0, Carolina 4
April 13, 2023: Carolina 6, Florida 4

Carolina takes season series 2-1-0

Team Storylines

The question for Carolina is simple: can their depth, namely Fast, Jordan Martinook, and Stefan Noesen, keep showing up?

Their job should be made easier, as Teuvo Teräväinen is expected to return to the team after missing most of the playoffs with a broken hand. But Martinook’s 10 points in 11 games and Fast’s eight points in 11 games are near the team lead and ahead of other expected leading scorers like Martin Necas.

That’ll be their ticket to the Stanley Cup Final against a Florida team loaded with more consistently potent names, like Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov, and Carter Verhaeghe, in their top six. It’ll also be tough to contend with the fact that Florida’s three leading goal-scorers among forwards in the playoffs (Verhaeghe, Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart) are spread out on three different lines.

Both teams are set in the crease. Both Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta have played very well for Carolina, but Andersen’s pulled ahead with a 5-0 record and .931 save percentage after Raanta exited the lineup due to illness. Bobrovsky may have surpassed Tkachuk in Panthers Conn Smythe candidates after his performance against the Toronto Maple Leafs, limiting the Toronto attack to two goals in each game.

There are plenty of personnel storylines to go around in this series as well. Not only will it feature all three active Staal brothers in the NHL, but it also features a showdown between Carolina’s Cup-winning captain Rod Brind’Amour and former teammate Eric Staal, who now attempts to upset his former coach and help boost Florida into the Final.

Prediction

Carolina is the more experienced and better-coached team in this series. They’ve overcome multiple question marks after another triple-digit point total in the regular season to get where they are now.

They’ve had plenty of tough lessons to learn from past mistakes, but so have the Panthers after a handful of recent early eliminations. They’re also both even in most matchup categories and boast similarly aggressive styles of play.

It makes this series one of the hardest to predict of the entire postseason. Both teams have knocked off 110+ point opponents with relative ease. Where Carolina pulls away is behind the bench, however, and it could be the deciding factor in what should be a lengthy series.

Prediction: Hurricanes win in seven games.

PHR Playoff Primer: Vegas Golden Knights vs Edmonton Oilers

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With the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs now underway, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? We continue our Second Round coverage with the Pacific Division matchup between the Vegas Golden Knights and Edmonton Oilers.

Not much separated the Vegas Golden Knights and Edmonton Oilers in the regular season. Both teams battled to the very end to determine the winner of the Pacific Division, with Vegas finally emerging and finishing just two points ahead of their division rival.

Though they ended up at the top of the division, it was not an easy ride for either team this season. The Golden Knights had to overcome many significant injuries, including Robin Lehner, their starting goaltender, missing the entire season, Mark Stone, an exceptional two-way winger missing the second half of the season and top defenseman Shea Theodore missing significant time in the middle of the season with injury as well.

The Oilers didn’t have the same injury troubles, though Evander Kane missed half the season after having his wrist cut by a skate blade. Their adversity was more about past issues coming back to haunt them. Those issues were goaltending problems as Jack Campbell struggled all season after signing a five-year contract with a $5MM cap hit. The defense seemed to be a bit too offensive minded as well and were not able to shut things down well enough to be a serious Stanley Cup contender.

Regular Season Performance

Vegas: 51-22-9, 111 points, +43 goal differential
Florida: 50-23-9, 109 points, +65 goal differential

Head-To-Head

November 19, 2022: Edmonton 4, Vegas 3 (OT)
January 14, 2023: Edmonton 4, Vegas 3
March 25, 2023: Vegas 4, Edmonton 3 (OT)
March 28, 2023: Edmonton 7, Vegas 4

Edmonton takes season series 3-0-1

Team Storylines

The Oilers seemed to flip a switch at the trade deadline and put all those past defensive issues in the rearview mirror. There were two main reasons for this team finally looking like a sound defensive team as well as an elite offensive team instead of a one-dimensional squad that we have seen in the past.

First, they acquired Mattias Ekholm from the Nashville Predators at the trade deadline and he immediately became their best defensive defenseman as well as their top defender on the penalty kill. He eats up a ton of minutes and plays against the other teams best players while putting up points and ensuring the opposition stays off the scoresheet.

Secondly, the Oilers finally started to rely more on goaltender Stuart Skinner late in the season instead of Campbell. While Campbell’s contract would suggest he is their top guy, Skinner played extremely well down the stretch, starting 16 of the team’s final 21 games and posting a 2.43 GAA and a .920 SV%.

Skinner didn’t quite continue that performance in round one against the Los Angeles Kings as he posted a GAA near 3.50 as well as a .890 SV%. He is going to need to be closer to his regular season numbers if the Oilers want to advance to the Western Conference Final for the second consecutive season.

Apr 16, 2022; Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports

Also, the Oilers are an offensive juggernaut, but they leaned pretty heavily on just three players in their six game round one win. Connor McDavid has ten points, as did young defenseman Evan Bouchard and Leon Draisaitl led the team with 11 points. However, no one else on the team had more than four points in the opening round. That’s not horrible, especially since Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Kane, Klim Kostin and Ekholm all had four points, but having a forward other than Draisaitl and McDavid score a point-per-game pace would give the Oilers incredible scoring depth.

It won’t be easy to score at will against the Golden Knights who lost their opening game of the postseason but then eliminated the Winnipeg Jets with four straight victories. They may not have an elite scorer like McDavid or Draisaitl, but they have incredible scoring depth that allowed them to quickly dispose of the Jets.

Chandler Stephenson and Stone led the way with eight points each in five games while William Karlsson, Jack Eichel and Alex Pietrangelo all had five points in the series. Add in Reilly Smith, Jonathan Marchessault, Theodore and Ivan Barbashev and the Golden Knights have scorers up and down their lineup as well as on their blue line.

The Golden Knights will lean on Laurent Brossoit in goal, giving each team a starter with very little playoff experience. Brossoit was solid against his former team, the Jets, in round one posting a .915 SV% and being good enough to outduel Connor Hellebuyck in the other end.

Prediction

Both teams have some inexperience in goal, and the ability to score almost at will. The Oilers have the top end guys while the Golden Knights have plenty of scoring depth, but putting pucks in the net will not be an issue in this series.

It should be a long series, but the defensive depth on the Golden Knights blue line may be the determining factor. Having to face Theodore, Pietrangelo, Alec Martinez and Brayden McNabb will give the Oilers depth players little chance to score while limiting their top guns just enough to outlast them in a long, back and forth series. In the end, home ice advantage in that last game may prove to be the difference.

Prediction: Golden Knights win in seven games.

PHR Playoff Primer: Carolina Hurricanes vs. New Jersey Devils

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With the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs now underway, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? We begin our second-round coverage with the Metropolitan Division matchup between the Carolina Hurricanes and New Jersey Devils.

For the third time in as many years, the Carolina Hurricanes have won their first-round matchup and will try to return to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since the 2018-19 season. The New Jersey Devils, on the other hand, will make it to the second round for the first time since their run to the Stanley Cup Final in the 2011-12 season, beating their cross-town rival New York Rangers in seven games. This will be the fifth time these two teams have met in the playoffs, as the Hurricanes have won three of the previous four series.

Over the last 10 seasons prior to the current one, the Devils had failed to qualify for the playoffs in nine of those years. As the team has finally come together, led by the tremendous breakout of star center, Jack Hughes, the Devils look poised to continue winning.  For Carolina, they are on a three-year run of clinching the Metropolitan division during the regular season but have failed to move past the second round for quite some time.

Much like the playoff series for both of these teams in the first round, this one will be another encompassed by a historical rivalry. Aside from the 2009 playoffs, in the other three playoff matchups between these two teams, one team has gone on to the Stanley Cup Final, and the Hurricanes would go on to win in 2006. Although both teams look considerably different than they did in 2009, expect this series to be hotly contested.

Carolina Hurricanes: 52-21-9, 113 points, +53 goal differential
New Jersey Devils: 52-22-8, 112 points, +65 goal differential.

Head-To-Head

December 20, 2022: Carolina 4, New Jersey 1

January 1, 2023: Carolina 5, New Jersey 4 (OT)

January 10, 2023: New Jersey 5, Carolina 3

March 12, 2023: New Jersey 3, Carolina 0

New Jersey takes the season series 2-1-1

Team Storylines

Although the rivalry has been addressed between these two Eastern Conference foes, one of the major points of consideration will be the health of the two lineups. As of right now, New Jersey comes in with a clean bill of health, but Carolina will still be missing talented forwards such as Andrei Svechnikov and Teuvo Teravainen.

In their first-round matchup against the New York Islanders, even with so many top-end forwards out of the lineup, the Hurricanes were able to pick up solid depth goal-scoring from both Stefan Noesen and Seth Jarvis. Both players scored four points in six games, as Noesen scored the eventual game-winner in Game One. Aside from those two for Carolina, Sebastian Aho led the way, scoring seven points in six games, continuing his point-per-game pace in the playoffs over the course of his career.

For the Devils, their high-end scoring came from the usual suspects this season. Although no player on the team averaged a point per game, Nico Hischier, Ondrej Palat, and Hughes, all scored five points in their series against the Rangers, and Erik Haula gave New Jersey six points in seven games. In the aspect of more players contributing to the offense, the Devils have a clear advantage heading into this second-round matchup.

On defense, both teams have positives and negatives attached to their back end. The Devils were a mixed bag against New York in their previous series, allowing 15 goals in three games (Game One, Two, and Six), but also held the Rangers to two goals in the four games that New Jersey won. So far in the playoffs this year, when the Devils lose, they lose big. For Carolina, in their six games against the Islanders, they gave up 15 goals in total. The major X-factors for both teams will be their top offensive defenseman, respectively. Brent Burns had a huge first round for Carolina, adding five assists, while New Jersey’s top defenseman, Dougie Hamilton, scored three points, including an overtime game-winner in Game Three.

Between the pipes, both teams have used both goaltenders in their first-round matchups. The Hurricanes ran with Antti Raanta up until the series-deciding Game Six, where Frederik Andersen would come in and stop 33 of 34 shots. In New Jersey, Vitek Vanecek originally got the nod in net, but after getting blown out in Games One and Two, the Devils turned to young goaltender Akira Schmid, who produced a 4-1-0 record, posting a .951 SV% and a 1.38 GAA, including two shutouts.

Prediction

In this series, the number of injuries that Carolina has accrued recently may become insurmountable. Although they dominated their first-round matchup against the Islanders, New Jersey brings a much different style of play, and the Hurricanes will have to try and weather some serious offense coming their way.

Although they won their first-round matchup against the Rangers, the Devils’ lack of playoff experience showed, as they were considerably tested by New York. The players that lead the team, such as Hughes, Hischier, and Bratt, do not have the same experience that the Hurricanes team has accrued in the last several years. In defense, the Devils were down 2-0 in their previous series and still managed to come back and win in seven.

The prediction: New Jersey win in six games.

PHR Playoff Primer: Dallas Stars vs. Seattle Kraken

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With the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs now underway, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? We begin our second-round coverage with the Western Conference matchup between the Dallas Stars and Seattle Kraken.

The Seattle fanbase waited a long time for a team to cheer for and the Seattle Kraken have given them something to cheer about in just their second season by knocking off the defending Stanley Cup champions in seven games. The Dallas Stars on the other hand were able to dispatch of the Minnesota Wild in just six games on the back of incredible goaltending from Jake Oettinger. Their second-round matchup will mark the first time the two teams have met in the playoffs.

What a difference a season makes. A year ago, Kraken general manager Ron Francis looked as though he’d butchered the expansion draft as Seattle finished near the bottom of the NHL standings. But, fast forward one year later and the Kraken have their first 100-point season, a playoff series victory, and the opportunity for more.  For Dallas, they are just three years removed from a Stanley Cup finals appearance in which they lost in six games to the Tampa Bay Lightning. While the Stars do still have several of the core pieces from that 2020 team, they’ve added a lot of elite young talent to mix in with their older core pieces.

It’s hard to get excited for a series in which the two teams have never met in the playoffs before, but Dallas quietly had one of the most exciting series of the first round, and Seattle provided ample fireworks of their own. This series might not have the draw that some other series may have, but there will be plenty of star power on the ice for Dallas, while Seattle has one of the most balanced lineups in the entire NHL and can outwork almost any team.

Regular Season Performance

Dallas Stars: 51-22-9, 111 points, +43 goal differential
Seattle Kraken: 46-28-8, 100 points, +33 goal differential.

Head-To-Head

March 11, 2023: Dallas 4, Seattle 3 (OT)

March 13, 2023: Dallas 5, Seattle 2

March 21, 2023: Seattle 5, Dallas 4 (OT)

Dallas takes the season series 2-0-1

Team Storylines

One might not think these teams would have much in the way of a rivalry, however for ten days in mid-March they saw a lot of each other. The teams played three times and developed a bit of hate in that time. While a lot has happened since then, there could be carryover.

The biggest storyline in this series will be the high-end skill of the Dallas Stars against the workmanlike attitude of the Seattle Kraken. Dallas has the offense and the goaltending to make a deep run in these playoffs and have much higher expectations than the Kraken, however Seattle has shown an incredible amount of heart this season and are playing with house money at this point. Sometimes the pressure can cause a team to wilt, and sometimes no pressure at all can make a team play fast and loose. It’ll be interesting to see it play out.

The Dallas Stars play with a ton of skill and a ton of speed, led by Jason Robertson, they can put the puck in your net in several ways and can push the pace, or slow down the game if they need to grind out a win. They still possess Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin and a few other players from the 2020 run to the finals that know how to get the job done in the playoffs. They have the confidence in their group and their goalie to get it done. Seattle on the other can also play with a lot of pace, they come at you in waves, line after line can contribute on the offensive end. Every line can score, but they don’t have the gamebreakers that Dallas has.

On the backend, both teams have strong blue lines that can help generate offense. Seattle has the size advantage with a couple of towering forces that can crash and bang and clear the front of the net, but Dallas may possess the strength advantage with a physically imposing lineup in which every man in the unit is over six foot. Dallas has the most elite puck mover in Miro Heiskanen, but this year’s version of Vince Dunn isn’t far off, and Seattle has a better collection of point producers and a deeper unit of six. While the Stars defense can do it all, Seattle’s defense can all do it. Coach Dave Hakstol has somehow managed to spread his defensive minutes about as evenly as you will ever see for a defensive unit. I would give the advantage to Seattle in this area as they seem to find an extra gear late in games and have a good track record of shutting the door on their opponents.

In goal, Dallas boasts one of the best goaltenders in the world in Jake Oettinger. His playoff resume is short, but it is strong. He was dominant in the first round, and should he play at that level in this series, Dallas will be tough to beat. Regular season numbers would tell us that Oettinger gives Dallas a huge advantage over Seattle in net, but in round one Seattle received elite goaltending as well. Philipp Grubauer finally gave Seattle the goaltending they thought they were getting when they signed the former Avalanche goalie to a six year $35.4MM contract in 2021. The German netminder hasn’t been able to sustain much success over his two years with the Kraken, but if he can build on his impressive stretch of play in round one, Seattle will have a punchers chance to advance.

Prediction

Anytime an elite goaltender is involved in a series it is always difficult to bet against them. Jake Oettinger has proven himself to be one of the best in the world and so far, has shown an ability to rise to the occasion when the games mean the most. If he can steal a game or two in this series, it will give Dallas a sizeable advantage and could be the difference in the series.

The other element that comes into play is experience. Dallas has a ton of players who have been here before, and while Seattle has some veterans with Stanley Cup playoff experience, it isn’t on the same level. This small detail could be the difference maker for the Stars if they can draw on that experience and find that extra push.

The prediction: Dallas win in seven games.

PHR Playoff Primer: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Florida Panthers

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With the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs now underway, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? We begin our Second Round coverage with the Atlantic Division matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers.

Two teams with very short histories of recent playoff success will face off against each other in the Second Round. What could go wrong?

Both teams overcame adversity to get to this point, although one team’s path is much more impressive than the other. The Florida Panthers are here against all odds, finishing the regular season as the 17th-place team in the league but vanquishing the record-setting Boston Bruins in seven games. It’s the first time in franchise history the Panthers have advanced in the postseason in back-to-back years.

The Maple Leafs, while favored to win their series, exorcised past failures in their own right, advancing in the playoffs for the first time in nearly two decades. It’s a massive step toward ending the longest championship drought in the league, one in which they’ll have to vanquish both Florida teams to end.

Regular Season Performance

Toronto: 50-21-11, 111 points, +57 goal differential
Florida: 42-32-8, 92 points, +17 goal differential

Head-To-Head

January 17, 2023: Florida 4, Toronto 5 (OT)
March 23, 2023: Toronto 6, Florida 2
March 29, 2023: Florida 3, Toronto 2 (OT)
April 10, 2023: Toronto 2, Florida 1 (OT)

Toronto takes season series 3-0-1

Team Storylines

It was a tale of two seasons for the Florida Panthers, who went 12-5-2 after the trade deadline to rocket back into playoff position after a disappointing first half to the campaign. Fortunately for them, they were able to keep it rolling in the playoffs, and their early-series dominance and late-series heroics were enough to create one of the largest upsets in NHL history.

It should strike fear into the Toronto Maple Leafs, who deserve full credit for their series win, but were outplayed heavily at times by the Lightning and got some soft goals past a normally stout Andrei Vasilevskiy. One main reason for optimism for Leafs fans, however, is their play against Florida down the stretch. Three of their four season matchups game within the last few weeks of the campaign, with Florida scratching and clawing for playoff positioning. Toronto came out victorious in two of the three games, dropping the other in overtime.

Toronto was able to get to the slot with ease in their 6-2 win, forcing nine high-danger chances against Sergei Bobrovsky. Their more balanced attack, with the inclusion of Ryan O’Reilly to the third line, will be key in getting through a Florida defense that lacks depth behind Brandon Montour and Aaron Ekblad.

Goaltending may as well be a toss-up in this series. With Bobrovsky reclaiming the starter’s net in Florida, he and Ilya Samsonov have had very similar postseasons. Both have let in shaky goals at times but have turned it on in clutch moments, stealing their team’s games despite mediocre save percentages.

Defensively, Toronto will need to change their game plan when hemmed in their own zone. A common criticism against Toronto in the first round was their passiveness, allowing the Lightning to cycle freely in the zone and activate their defensemen at the points. With Montour’s current offensive dominance for Florida, he’ll be an unleashed weapon in this series if the Leafs aren’t more aggressive in covering the points.  There’s also the matter of Matthew Tkachuk to stop, who’s taken Florida on his back this season.

The same goes for Florida, who have to contend with a red-hot Morgan Rielly for Toronto. The Maple Leafs were much more confident moving the puck in their series-clinching Game 6 win, largely in part due to swapping in Timothy Liljegren in the lineup for Justin Holl. That change is expected to stick for Game 1.

Prediction

Both teams won their series in similar ways: clutch saves and mastering a “bend but don’t break” mentality. With the monkey off the Maple Leafs’ backs, however, the advantage goes to the team with better depth at every position.

Toronto’s ability to roll three lines and advance the puck out of the zone with a more confident defense, as well as a dialed-in Ilya Samsonov, should keep the upstart Panthers at bay and guide the Maple Leafs to the conference finals for the first time since 2002.

Prediction: Maple Leafs win in six games.

PHR Playoff Primer: Colorado Avalanche vs. Seattle Kraken

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With the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs now underway, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? We wrap up our First Round coverage with the Central Division matchup between the Colorado Avalanche and Seattle Kraken.

Some in NHL circles had optimistic expectations for the initial Seattle Kraken roster after their expansion draft and free agency period. While there were notable names general manager Ron Francis opted not to add to his lineup, the team he constructed was analytically sound and, if their transition game held up, could be competitive in a weak Western Conference.

Needless to say, it didn’t turn out that way. A finish near the bottom of the league gave Seattle two high-end center prospects in their first two drafts, with one of them the frontrunner for this year’s Calder Trophy. Slightly improved goaltending and high-end depth scoring have positioned the Kraken as the most-improved expansion team from year 1 to 2 in NHL history, but their first foray into the postseason won’t be easy.

Despite finishing with 100 points, Seattle failed to clinch a divisional playoff spot thanks to other divisional rivals going on massive winning streaks at the right time. Unfortunately, that means they face off against the Colorado Avalanche, who finished third in the conference despite significant injuries and, if you happened to forget, are the defending Stanley Cup champions.

Regular Season Performance

Colorado: 51-24-7, 109 points, +54 goal differential
Seattle: 46-28-8, 100 points, +33 goal differential

Head-To-Head

October 21, 2022: Seattle 3, Colorado 2
January 21, 2023: Colorado 2, Seattle 1 (SO)
March 5, 2023: Seattle 3, Colorado 2 (OT)

Seattle takes the season series 2-0-1

Team Storylines

Seattle will need all hands on deck if they’re to win their first-ever playoff series against Colorado. The Avalanche are as healthy as they’re going to get to start the postseason, and they finished the regular season on an 8-1-1 tear.

That means a lot of pressure on rookie Matthew Beniers, the presumptive Calder Trophy winner who centers the team’s top line between Jared McCann and Jordan Eberle. He finished fourth on the team in scoring with 57 points in 80 games, but it’s his strong two-way game that grabbed the attention of most this season, especially for such a young player.

It begs the question — will Beniers see matchups against Nathan MacKinnon? If so, can his promising defensive analytics yield success for the Kraken in helping to slow down one of the best playoff performers in recent memory? Few would be surprised to see coach Dave Hakstol utilize a more experienced option at center against MacKinnon, such as Alexander Wennberg or Yanni Gourde, but Beniers’ all-around play in the regular season has earned him a chance at heavy usage in the playoffs.

The larger factor that could lead to a Kraken upset, though, is their well-balanced attack. Seattle had six 20-goal scorers this season, including bottom-six talents Oliver Bjorkstrand and Daniel Sprong. While goals from your bottom six are generally a key to success in the playoffs, some numbers suggest the Kraken have scored more goals than they’ve earned. The Kraken scored 32.6 goals above expected at even-strength this season, per MoneyPuck, leading the league by a wide margin. If their elite finishing runs dry, it could be a quick exit for Seattle.

In net for Seattle will be Philipp Grubauer, who had some decent playoff outings in past years while a member of the Avalanche. He’s seemed to regain some of his former touch after an incredibly disappointing first year with the Kraken, posting a 14-7-3 record and .902 save percentage in 26 games since the calendar turned to 2023.

For Seattle to pull off the upset, he’ll need to match his Colorado counterpart. Alexandar Georgiev has quietly given the Avalanche high-end goaltending in his first season with the team. The 27-year-old silenced all doubts by starting 62 games, leading the league with 40 wins, and stopping 21.9 goals above expected (MoneyPuck). He’ll be making his first career playoff start tonight, though, only appearing in two games in relief during last year’s playoff run with the New York Rangers.

Colorado’s secondary objective in this series, other than continuing their championship defense, will be to escape without another significant injury. They’ll be without captain Gabriel Landeskog for the entire postseason, and all of their right-side defenders (Cale Makar, Bowen Byram, and Josh Manson) have missed significant periods of time.

Staying healthy allows Colorado to match Seattle at their strength — scoring from the middle six. Colorado’s top talent obviously overtakes that of Seattle, and while only Artturi Lehkonen registered 20 goals this year outside of MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen, a healthy group of depth forwards can still score enough to give Colorado a series win.

Prediction

There’s no question the Kraken will come out excited, especially given their opponent. But hoping for some expansion team magic in the style of the Vegas Golden Knights’ first playoff appearance may be a little misguided.

Questions about consistency in goal still plague the Kraken, and, if Georgiev maintains his regular season performance, are enough to be the difference in this series alone. Colorado’s healthy top four on defense still remains the best in the West and are a viable antidote to Seattle’s consistent offense.

The prediction: Colorado wins in five games.

PHR Playoff Primer: Vegas Golden Knights vs Winnipeg Jets

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With the start of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs upon us, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? We continue our look with the matchup between the Vegas Golden Knights and Winnipeg Jets.

The #1 vs #8 seed in the Western Conference is not going to be a walk in the park for the top-seeded Vegas Golden Knights. They were able to hold off the Edmonton Oilers and Colorado Avalanche for the top spot in the Western Conference, and while that gives them home-ice advantage throughout the first three rounds, it does not give them an easy matchup in any of those potential series.

The Winnipeg Jets were able to hold off the Calgary Flames and Nashville Predators for the final playoff spot in the west. A 7-3-0 run just before their final game of the season was enough to clinch that spot. Vegas was even hotter down the stretch, finishing 9-1-3 in their final 13 games.

Who can keep the hot streak alive for two more weeks and emerge victorious in a much tighter #1 vs #8 series than we are used to seeing in the opening round?

Regular Season Performance

Vegas: 51-22-9, 111 points, +43 goal differential
Winnipeg: 46-33-3, 95 points, +22 goal differential

Head-To-Head

October 20, 2022: Vegas 5, Winnipeg 2

October 30, 2022: Vegas 2, Winnipeg 1 (OT)

December 13, 2022: Vegas 6, Winnipeg 5

Vegas takes the season series 3-0

Team Storylines

Which Winnipeg Jets team shows up? We have seen a few different versions of the Winnipeg Jets this season. The first version was terrific, as the Jets were the best team in the Western Conference for the first half of the season. They started the year with a 29-14-1 record which put them fourth in the NHL on January 16 but leading the west. A couple of tough road trips to the east followed and a bit of a free-fall began in Winnipeg.

Between January 16 and March 20 the Jets went 10-15-2 to fall to the edges of the playoff race. Instead of talking about the top seed or even home-ice advantage, they were just scrambling to try and get in at all. Then they got hot again and finished the season 7-4-0 to get into the playoffs as the final wildcard seed.

So which Jets team do we see in the next two weeks? The best team in the west like we saw for more than three months to begin the season? The struggling team that showed up for about two months late in the year or the back-against-the-wall squad that was able to grind out wins in the final couple weeks?

Will Mark Stone return to make a difference? While the Jets were the top team in the west at some points, the Golden Knights were right behind them. The difference was the Golden Knights were able to remain consistent throughout the season, even while dealing with some huge injuries. One of the biggest injuries they suffered was to Mark Stone, a fantastic two-way winger who is capable of scoring at a point-per-game pace and is better defensively than offensively. He has been out of the Vegas lineup for the second half of the season and the team began the year 28-13-2 with Stone in the lineup. He was cleared for contact recently and could be back as soon as Game 1. If so, the team that finished the season at the top of the Western Conference just got a whole lot better.

Can Connor Hellebuyck continue late-season heroics? Hellebuyck’s season kind of mirrored the Jets season. He was fantastic for the first three months of the season, but then slipped a bit and did not have great numbers in January, February or March. However, he was able to recapture his magic late in the season and helped the Jets clinch a playoff spot with some spectacular play in their final handful of games. In his last ten games he had a 1.80 GAA and a .936 SV% to propel the Jets into the playoffs. If he can keep up that terrific play, the Jets will be in great shape.

Can the Knights find a reliable starting goalie? While the Jets have one of the NHL’s most reliable, and busiest goaltenders, the Knights had a hard time finding a consistent goaltender most of the season. Adin Hill and Logan Thompson played the most games for the Golden Knights this season in goal, and were steady as they each posted a .915 SV%. However, Hill was hurt over a month ago and has not played a game since March 7. Thompson has also dealt with injuries and has only played one game since February 9.

The Kings acquired veteran Jonathan Quick at the trade deadline but he doesn’t appear to have the same Stanley Cup winning magic he had a decade ago. Quick played ten games with the Golden Knights, posting a 3.13 GAA and a .901 SV% in that time.

It appears their starter could be Laurent Brossoit, who recently served as Hellebuyck’s rarely used backup for three seasons. Brossoit played most of this season in the AHL with the Henderson Silver Knights before being called up due to Hill and Thompson being injured. He played great down the stretch, winning his five April starts while posting a 1.59 GAA and a .946 SV%. Can he continue that hot streak into the postseason? Can he stare down his former teammate in the opposite goal and match him save for save? If so, the Golden Knights have a terrific chance of advancing.

How does Jack Eichel perform in first ever playoff series? Golden Knights leading scorer Jack Eichel is 26 years old and has had a great career so far, but he will suit up for his first ever playoff game when this series begins. He has scored 446 points in 476 career regular season games, but the playoffs are a different entity.

Whose depth proves to be greater? While Eichel was the team’s leading scorer, he only had 66 points. He did also only play 67 games so it was a great season for him, but there are no Art Ross Trophy candidates on this roster. That doesn’t mean they can’t score, as they have plenty of depth with Chandler Stephenson, Jonathan Marchessault, Reilly Smith, Alex Pietrangelo and William Karlsson all scoring more than 50 points and Mark Stone certainly would have if healthy.

The Jets roster is built similarly. Kyle Connor had nearly a point-per-game season with 80 points in 82 games and Josh Morrissey, Mark Scheifele, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Blake Wheeler, Nikolaj Ehlers, Nino Niederreiter and Cole Perfetti can all contribute plenty of offense.

It will be a difficult task for both teams defensive pairs to shut down all three of the opposing team’s top lines and should lead to some depth players stepping up to play big roles in this series since neither team is leaning on just a couple of players to provide scoring. Both teams are set up for balanced scoring and it will be interesting to see if anyone can step up and score over a point per game in the series to give their team the edge.

Prediction

The prediction: On paper, the Jets look just as good as the Golden Knights, and they were at times, but they found ways to be inconsistent throughout the season. The Knights on the other hand were able to continue their winning ways even with key players out of the lineup for long stretches. The Golden Knights will outlast the Jets in a long, hard-fought series and win in seven games.

PHR Playoff Primer: Dallas Stars vs. Minnesota Wild

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With the start of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs just a few days away, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? We continue our look with the Central Division matchup between the Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild.

For the second time in their history, these two franchises linked at the hip will face each other in a first-round matchup. After losing in six games to the Stars in 2016, the shorthanded Wild are once again tasked with attempting to knock out the team that preceded them in the hockey capital of the United States.

Dallas has enjoyed their first 100-point season since defeating the Wild in 2016, while the Wild maintained their grip on a divisional playoff spot despite the absence of Kirill Kaprizov for much of the season’s last few weeks. Now likely without another important piece in Joel Eriksson Ek to start the series, though, Minnesota will need to continue their next-player-up mentality to avoid their seventh straight first-round loss.

Regular Season Performance

Dallas: 47-21-14, 108 points, +67 goal differential
Minnesota: 46-25-11, 103 points, +21 goal differential

Head-To-Head

December 4, 2022: Minnesota 6, Dallas 5 (SO)
December 29, 2022: Dallas 4, Minnesota 1
February 8, 2023: Minnesota 1, Dallas 4
February 17, 2023: Dallas 1, Minnesota 2 (SO)

Season series tied 2-2

Team Storylines

These two teams present an interesting matchup for an unusual reason: each team’s two biggest strengths may just cancel each other out.

Jason Robertson’s season needs no introduction. Not only did his 109 points finish tied for sixth in the NHL, but they also blew past Mike Modano’s Dallas single-season record of 93, set back in 1993-94, the team’s first year in Texas.

Unfortunately, he’s matched up against Kaprizov, who nabbed the Calder Trophy away from Robertson in 2021. Despite missing 15 games, Kaprizov potted 40 goals for a second straight season and played over 21 minutes per game.

Where Dallas pulls away in this matchup, at least on offense, is their center depth, especially with Eriksson Ek’s injury concerns. While the Wild cornerstone center is progressing faster than anticipated in his return from a lower-body injury, Dallas’ lineup down the middle of Roope Hintz, Max Domi (or Tyler Seguin), rookie Wyatt Johnston, and potential Selke contender Radek Faksa could prove tough matchups for Minnesota’s lacking center core.

The x-factor in Eriksson Ek’s absence will undoubtedly be Ryan Hartman, who’s still a top-six player but not the 34-goal scorer we saw last season. After putting up five assists in six playoff games against St. Louis last season, they’ll need similar playoff production from him between Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello to round out their depth.

Both teams also boast some of the best young goalies in the league, but they carry different degrees of certainty. Dallas knows what they’re getting in the postseason with 24-year-old Jake Oettinger, who nearly had one of the most incredible series steals in NHL history against Calgary last year with a .954 save percentage in a seven-game loss.

For the Wild, Filip Gustavsson, also 24, finished near the top of NHL leaderboards with a .931 save percentage and 2.10 goals-against average, albeit with only 37 starts compared to Oettinger’s 61. That’s because the battle-tested Marc-Andre Fleury remains an option for Minnesota after recording a .906 save percentage and a 2-3 record in five games against St. Louis last season.

Both teams boast stingy defenses, although Dallas’ actual results this season overpower that of Minnesota’s reputation. That’s not to discredit how well the Wild limited chances against this season — however, Dallas finished second in the NHL in expected goals against, per MoneyPuck, behind only the Carolina Hurricanes. If Dallas can impose their system against an already somewhat goal-starved Wild team, it could be another early exit for Minnesota.

Prediction

The Minnesota Wild are a good hockey team with distinct strengths. However, the Stars don’t provide an advantageous stylistic matchup for Minnesota’s first series win in eight years.

Dallas has had a better season at both ends of the puck and boasts the goalie with stronger recent playoff experience and more stamina as a starter. None of this includes the track record of first-year head coach Peter DeBoer, notorious for making deep playoff runs in his first seasons with a team.

Both teams play structured games, though, and it shouldn’t be a quick out for the Wild by any means. Dallas has the necessary advantages to pull out a series win, though, as they look to return to the Stanley Cup Final for the second time in four years.

The prediction: Dallas wins in six games.

PHR Playoff Primer: Boston Bruins vs. Florida Panthers

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With the start of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs set to begin tomorrow, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? We continue our look with the Atlantic Division showdown between the Boston Bruins and Florida Panthers.

With each record that they set during their 65-win, 135-point regular season, the focus began to shift for the Boston Bruins. They’ve known they’d be making the playoffs since December, if not earlier. While other teams went to battle with the focus of securing a playoff spot, the Bruins were chasing records etched into the books by some of the NHL’s most historic teams. Now? The records have been set, their regular season is over, and they’re now in the same postseason boat as everybody else: zero wins, zero losses.

For this Boston team, making a deep run is considered the bare minimum. Anything less than a berth in the conference finals will feel like a disappointment, and it’s very likely that anything less than a Stanley Cup victory will leave fans in New England wanting more.

For the Florida Panthers, it was an uneven regular season that left them in the wholly undesirable position of being Boston’s first-round opponent. There are many who will expect these Panthers to serve as the Washington Generals to Boston’s Harlem Globetrotters, but just write them off in this series would be a mistake.

One must remember that it was just a few years ago that the Tampa Bay Lightning flirted with regular-season history, only to be swept in the first round of the playoffs against a hungry Blue Jackets team that just barely scraped their way into the playoffs. This is a scrappy Panthers team looking to move past the disappointment that defined their elimination in last year’s playoffs, led by new franchise face Matthew Tkachuk.

Will the Bruins take their first step toward a place in hockey history? Will their regular-season dominance extend to the postseason in a way it couldn’t for the 2018-19 Lightning? Or will we see another historic upset, perhaps even with reigning Calder Cup Champion Alex Lyon leading Florida to glory?

Regular Season Performance

Boston: 65-12-5, 135 points, +128 goal differential
Florida: 42-32-8, 92 points, +17 goal differential

Head-To-Head

October 17th, 2022: Boston 5, Florida 3
November 23rd, 2022: Florida 5, Boston 2
December 19th, 2022: Boston 7, Florida 3
January 28th, 2023: Florida 4, Boston 3

Series tied 2-2

Team Storylines

The Bruins are one of the NHL’s deepest, most talented teams, with a lineup full of top-end talent and valuable role players. You don’t set the NHL record for regular-season success without an elite lineup, after all. But the major question for the Bruins is something relatively out of their control: health.

They have experience, with a few players remaining from the team’s 2011 Stanley Cup victory and even more from the 2019 roster that just barely missed out on a championship. They have scoring talent, led by 61-goal, 113-point scorer David Pastrnak, defensive talent, and a goalie who posted an otherworldly .938 save percentage in the regular season.

But among those top players, there are some health-related question marks. We covered reports earlier today that Bruins captain Patrice Bergeron could miss the first game of the series, and Linus Ullmark has been dealing with an undisclosed injury in recent days, though he did practice yesterday with no restrictions.

This Bruins team is one that has 2019 Hart Trophy winner Taylor Hall listed as a third-liner, alongside Tyler Bertuzzi, who has scored 16 points in 21 games in Boston. They have a stable full of versatile, capable players who can handle any situation thrown at them. The major question, then, will be if those players can stay healthy, and if they can maintain the standard of play they set in the regular season in the more intense environment of the playoffs.

There are no roster-related question marks surrounding this Bruins team, as long as they stay healthy. The main storyline to watch for this series, from their perspective, will be availability and execution, and those are two factors that are impossible to fully evaluate before the puck is dropped tomorrow.

For Florida, the main storyline relates to their situation in their crease.

With the Panthers’ season on the line, the team turned to Lyon, an AHL netminder who won the Calder Cup with the Chicago Wolves last season.

He played extremely well, rattling off a six-game winning streak that revived Florida’s fading playoff dreams.

If the Panthers want to have any hope of pulling off the impossible and becoming the second underdog to stun a record-setting, 60-plus win team in the first round, they’ll need Lyon to play as he did during the winning streak.

They’ll also need their penalty kill to step up, as the Bruins powerplay, while inconsistent, is capable of scorching hot stretches. The Panthers’ penalty kill ranked 23rd in the NHL this season, killing 76% of opposing man advantages. The Bruins killed off 87.3%, the highest rate in the NHL by a decent margin.

While goaltending will be the main focus in this series, special teams could also be the battleground where Florida either finds a way to get ahead or ends up falling apart.

Prediction

The Panthers are a quality team whose stellar play in recent weeks rightfully earned them a spot in the playoffs. With players such as Tkachuk, and Aleksander Barkov, and an experienced coach like Paul Maurice, they’re not exactly the easiest team to bet against. The pressure the Bruins will be facing as such a successful regular-season team will be immense, and to discount how impactful that pressure could be would be a mistake.

That being said, how realistic is the possibility that these Bruins, who barely ever lose consecutive games, fall to a team potentially starting a goalie with under 40 games of NHL experience? How likely is it that the possible final act of Bergeron’s illustrious NHL career ends with a humiliating upset loss to a division rival?

The Blue Jackets proved a few years ago that anything can happen in the Stanley Cup playoffs. NHL-caliber players on any team, regardless of where they are in the standings, have it in them to find a way to win any game, regardless of the challenge posed by their opposition.

In the final game of their regular season, the basement-dwelling Montreal Canadiens held their own against and nearly beat the Bruins. But in a seven-game series? That’s a far taller task, and it seems as though the Boston will have more than enough to outlast even the fiercest of challenges from the Panthers.

The prediction: Bruins win in six games.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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