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Snapshots: Stone, Panthers, Olofsson

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As if being an Ottawa Senators fan wasn’t hard enough right now, a report surfaced this morning that suggested Mark Stone wanted out of the city when his contract expired at the end of this season. Stone settled with the Senators this offseason on just a one-year deal that will pay him $7.35MM this season and qualifies for unrestricted free agency on July 1, 2019. The 26-year old forward was asked about the report after practice today, and denied it vehemently.

I love it here. This has been a great month for me, I’ve enjoyed my previous four years here and I want to continue to be here. 

As a player you’re looking to win every time you step on the ice. No matter who you’re playing with, no matter who’s in the lineup you have to look at it the same way. Obviously [the Senators front office] has said they’re rebuilding, but I think for the guys in this locker room we’re looking to win hockey games and looking to win as many as we can.

Stone could potentially be one of the very best forwards available on the open market next summer if he decides not to re-sign with the Senators, and can’t actually put pen to paper on a contract extension until January 1st, 2019. Even if he is enjoying things right now, it’s a dangerous situation for the Senators to be in given their expected struggles this season. Still, Stone has never said anything to make Ottawa believe that he wouldn’t be willing to stay and was even in discussions on a long-term deal this offseason at one point.

  • Not only do the Florida Panthers have a new captain in Aleksander Barkov, but today they announced their entire leadership group. Keith Yandle, Aaron Ekblad, Vincent Trocheck and Jonathan Huberdeau will all wear an “A” as alternate captains at various times this season, solidifying that group of five as the core of the team going forward. Among them, only Yandle is older than 25 while Barkov and Ekblad are still just 22 and 23 respectively, giving the Panthers a chance to keep most of the group together for a long time. In fact, all five are signed through at least the 2021-22 season and should help Florida return to the playoffs at some point in the next few years.
  • Michael Russo of The Athletic (subscription required) is reporting that Gustav Olofsson has suffered another shoulder injury, and there is fear that it is serious. Olofsson underwent an MRI yesterday, but there has been no update from the team as of yet. The 23-year old defenseman played 41 games for the Wild last season and could have perhaps battled for a full-time spot had he not suffered the injury. Selected in the second round five years ago, Olofsson has been limited by injury throughout his professional career and will hope for good news this time around.

Team Canada Names First 18 Players For IIHF World Championship

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April 16: Add Josh Bailey to the Canadian team, as the New York Islanders forward has agreed to join his teammates for the tournament. Unfortunately, Hockey Canada announced that Dunn would be unable to participate, meaning another spot has been opened up on the blueline.

April 12: For all those players who have missed the playoffs, the World Championships provide some respite and a chance to play some more meaningful hockey. For some, it is the highest level of international competition they will ever play in, for others just another chance to represent their country on the world stage.

Team Canada has released a list of 18 players set to compete in the upcoming tournament, with more to come as the playoffs eliminate teams.

Goaltenders:

Darcy Kuemper, Arizona Coyotes

Defensemen:

Thomas Chabot, Ottawa Senators
Vince Dunn, St. Louis Blues
Colton Parayko, St. Louis Blues
Joel Edmundson, St. Louis Blues
Aaron Ekblad, Florida Panthers
Darnell Nurse, Edmonton Oilers
Ryan Pulock, New York Islanders

Forwards:

Mathew Barzal, New York Islanders
Anthony Beauvillier, New York Islanders
Jordan Eberle, New York Islanders
Bo Horvat, Vancouver Canucks
Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Edmonton Oilers
Brayden Schenn, St. Louis Blues
Jaden Schwartz, St. Louis Blues
Ryan O’Reilly, Buffalo Sabres
Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Ottawa Senators

The Canadians will be coached by Bill Peters (Carolina Hurricanes), with Mike Yeo (St. Louis Blues) and Bob Boughner (Florida Panthers) assisting. They obviously will have more players added to this group, but already it is quite formidable. The forwards are especially strong, with a half dozen excellent options for the four center positions.

This will be O’Reilly’s fourth straight appearance for Canada, winning two golds and a silver in the last three tournaments. Last year’s squad featured Calvin Pickard and Eric Comrie in net, but both are heading to the playoffs with their respective AHL teams. Chad Johnson, the other goaltender to play last year, is coming off a terrible season in Buffalo.

Trade Deadline Notes: Ward, McDonagh, Oduya, Plekanec

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The San Jose Sharks are playing both buyer and seller at this year’s trade deadline. The Sharks are currently second in the Pacific Division, looking to hold off the Ducks, Kings, and Flames, and are known to be looking for scoring help up front. They have been attached to names like Evander Kane, Rick Nash, and really most high-profile forwards on the market. At the same time, TSN’s Darren Dreger reports that the team has requested a no-trade list from veteran forward Joel Ward. Ward, 37, is an impending free agent who has fallen out of favor in the San Jose lineup. He has a six-team no-trade list that he can use to slightly reduce the number of possible destinations, should he be traded. Ward has played in only 46 games this season, with just 11 points to show for it, but more importantly, has seen his once-valued penalty kill role diminished, along with his even strength ice time. Ward can still be an asset for many teams as both an experienced locker room presence and reliable two-way depth option, but he’s worth much more to another contender than the defense-conscious Sharks. A trade is far from a certainty, but is a definite possibility now that a list has been officially requested.

  • An unexpected suitor has entered the bidding for New York Rangers defenseman Ryan McDonagh. Sportsnet’s John Shannon believes that the Florida Panthers have interest in the top-pairing defenseman. Going up against divisional foes like the Tampa Bay Lightning and Boston Bruins, as well as many others, the Panthers will try make the top offer for McDonagh, as the Rangers continue their fire sale. The Panthers are still fighting for a wild card spot in the Eastern Conference this season, and McDonagh would be a major help with that, but more likely the motivation for the Cats is to bring in McDonagh for next season and with the intent of extending him. PHR recently identified a top-four defenseman as a need for the Panthers going forward, and McDonagh would round out quite the top four in Florida with Aaron Ekblad, Keith Yandle, and Michael Matheson.
  • Count both Johnny Oduya and Tomas Plekanec as the latest big-name players being held out of lineups tonight prior to the deadline. Dreger says that Oduya’s benching is just precautionary, but that the Ottawa Senators are working on trading the veteran defenseman as part of their own fire sale. The news of Plekanec, from TVA’s Renaud Lavoie, comes after a report yesterday that the Montreal Canadiens have received an influx of interest in the veteran center over the last 24 hours. Both players are expected to be moved in the coming days.

Deadline Primer: Florida Panthers

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With the trade deadline fast approaching, we will be taking a closer look at the situation for each team.  Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs?  Next up is a look at the Florida Panthers.

The Florida Panthers are in a difficult situation with the NHL Trade Deadline fast approaching. Few truly consider the team to be a playoff contender, but the fact of the matter is they are not that far out from a postseason spot. Florida currently sits in 12th in the Eastern Conference and nowhere close to an Atlantic Division berth, which admittedly is an uninspiring scenario. However, trailing the New York Islanders by eight points with a whopping six games in hand, the Panthers don’t need an unrealistic stretch to catch up. Yet, what is problematic is their upcoming slate of games leading up to the trade deadline, in which they play four games, all of which are against bona fide playoff teams. An 0-4 result this week would not be much of a surprise, but could deter GM Dale Tallon from continuing to pursue a playoff berth. At the same time, a positive result against strong competition could instill hope in the team and urge them to make a deal to improve the roster. The Panthers’ deadline role is still very much up in the air.

Record

25-23-6, 4th in the Atlantic Division

Deadline Status

To be determined

Deadline Cap Space

$33,124,940 in deadline cap space
41/50 contracts per CapFriendly

Draft Picks

2018: FLA 1st, ARI 2nd, FLA 3rd, VGK 4th, FLA 5th, FLA 6th, FLA 7th
2019: FLA 1st, FLA 2nd, FLA 3rd, FLA 4th, FLA 5th, FLA 6th, FLA 7th

Trade Chips

The Panthers may not be buyers at the 2018 deadline, depending on their next few games, but can they really be “sellers” in the traditional sense? Florida has just two impending unrestricted free agents with any value: veteran forward Radim Vrbata and AHL import goalie Harri Sateri. Neither player will net Florida much at the deadline, as neither is more than a luxury depth addition, rather than a difference-making acquisition. The team decided to move forward with an extension for Colton Sceviour, who otherwise might have drawn ample deadline attention. What remains is a roster that offers little to contenders. However, where the Panthers could make a move is trading away players with term for other players with term, rather than participating in the rental market. While they may be happy to move the likes of Jamie McGinn or Derek MacKenzie, the Panthers will have to deal value for value if pursuing some of the bigger available targets. Defenseman Alex Petrovic, a restricted free agent this summer, appears destined to leave Florida sooner rather than later, while young forwards Denis Malgin, Maxim Mamin, and Dryden Hunt and rookie defenseman Ian McCoshen will surely be in demand.

The Panthers don’t have much in the way of prospect depth, especially on defense, so may be hesitant to deal away too many draft picks or their high-value picks, including a potential lottery pick this season. Henrik Borgstrom is a near untouchable, and could even make his NHL debut this season if the Panthers are in the hunt, whereas 2017 first-rounder Owen Tippett is definitely a non-starter. Adam Mascherin or Aleksi Heponiemi won’t enjoy the same protections and could be moved in the right deal.

Players To Watch: F Radim Vrbata, G Harri Sateri, D Alex Petrovic, F Connor Brickley, F Denis Malgin

Team Needs

1) Top-six winger with term

The only reason the Panthers would move any of the aforementioned young players is to bring in a long-term asset. Tallon and company have made it known they are looking for a top-six winger to round out a really strong top-six group. With names like Mike Hoffman, Max Pacioretty, Mats Zuccarello and more reportedly available, Florida is one team willing to make a major deal in-season to acquire such a name. A young roster player, prospect, and draft pick could be enough to land one of these experienced scorers, which will serve the Panthers this season and beyond.

2) Starting defenseman with term

Interestingly, the Panthers’ main focus appears to be at forward when the team actually scores at a decent clip, but struggles to prevent goals against. Florida is very attached to Aaron Ekblad, Keith Yandle, and the recently-extended Michael Matheson, and for good reason; the trio have been excellent this season. The other half of the defense corps has been less impressive and both Petrovic and Mackenzie Weegar don’t seem to be long-term fits. The Cats could surely benefit from adding another body on the blue line that has a some years remaining on their contract. Such a deal could easily be made in free agency or on the summer trade market, but if the right player at the right price becomes available – such as an Oscar Klefbom for example – the Panthers will be interested.

3) Draft picks

At the end of the day, with their playoff chances caught in limbo and no desperation to make major deals, the most likely deadline strategy for Florida will be to simply trade away impending free agents or other expendable pieces for the best draft picks they can get. The cupboard is basically bare when it comes to defensive depth in the pipeline. A great quantity of picks in the next draft or two should help to rebuild the system on the back end as well as at other positions.

NHL Snapshots: Kadri, Sanheim, Matheson, Jaros

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Toronto Maple Leafs center Nazem Kadri is entering his ninth season of playing NHL hockey and for the first time ever, the 27-year-old broke the 30-goal plateau last year. Yet the center who feeds Patrick Marleau and Leo Komarov, believes he can do it again, according to Jonas Siegel of The Athletic (subscription required).

Siegel analyzes whether Kadri can, in fact, accomplish his boast. He writes that Kadri has one major asset that’s in his favor — to have a key role on one of the best power play units in the league, which he does. He scored 12 of his 32 goals last year on the power play, which was eighth in the league. Now with Marleau around added to the team’s arsenal, Kadri could very likely accomplish that feat.

However, one other thing that Siegel points out is that Kadri has learned a lot after having played in more than 400 games. His experience has taught him where to set up in front of the net, how to anticipate a scoring opportunity and quick reactions.

  • Sam Cardichi of Philly.com writes that Philadelphia Flyers’ Travis Sanheim will likely stick with the Flyers for the time being after a bounce-back game against the Anaheim Ducks. Unfortunately, that means that 22-year-old defenseman Samuel Morin will likely be sent down to Lehigh Valley soon, despite a strong preseason and receiving three healthy scratches in the team’s first three games.
  • NBC Sports Adam Gretz breaks down the Florida Panthers future salary cap situation after the team locked up defenseman Michael Matheson to an eight-year, $39MM contract Saturday. He writes the team now has nine players who are signed through the next four seasons, of which six are 25 years or under and they total $47.3MM combined. The group of Aaron Ekblad, Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov, Vincent Trocheck, and Nick Bjugstad lead their youth movement, while they also have Keith Yandle, Roberto Luongo and James Reimer locked up. However, Gretz writes that since the team doesn’t have any upcoming big contracts to hand out, the team will have a significant amount of cap space to fill out their roster with even more talent, suggesting that the Panthers are heading in the right direction.
  • Along with the recall of Thomas Chabot, the Ottawa Senators also recalled defenseman Christian Jaros on Sunday. The 21-year-old defenseman came over from Sweden just this year and has played in just two games for the Belleville Senators, picking up one assist. He and Chabot will fill in for all the team’s defensive injuries.

Michael Matheson Signs Long-Term Extension With Florida

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5:53 PM: It’s a done deal. Less than an hour after Friedman’s report, TSN’s Bob McKenzie has confirmed that Matheson and the Panthers have come to terms on an eight-year, $39MM contract extension. The deal, worth $4.875MM per year, would make Matheson the fifth-highest paid player for Florida and a top-fifty paid defenseman in the league if the 2018-19 season were underway. The extension puts Matheson in the same salary zone as players like Sami Vatanen, Justin Faulk, and Morgan Rielly.

The contract breaks down as follows, per CapFriendly:

2018-19: $3MM salary, $500K signing bonus
2019-20: $3.5MM salary
2020-21: $3.5MM salary
2021-22: $5MM salary
2022-23: $4MM salary
2023-24: $4MM salary, $2.5MM signing bonus
2024-25: $4MM salary, $2.5MM signing bonus
2025-26: $4.5MM salary, $2MM signing bonus

5:15 PM: According to Sportsnet insider Elliotte Friedman, the Florida Panthers are working toward an eight-year extension in the neighborhood of $40MM with one of their defenseman. Keep in mind Aaron Ekblad already signed an extension last year and 2017-18 marks the first season of his eight-year, $60MM, while Keith Yandle is already on to year two of his seven-year, $44.5MM free agent contract from last summer. No, the star Florida defenseman that Friedman is reporting on is… Michael Matheson?

To be fair, Matheson did play in 81 games with the Panthers last season and led the team in even-strength ice time on ice. However, those 81 games were only good enough to be tied for second among Florida defenseman and he ranked third in overall average time on ice. Matheson scored 17 points, tied for fourth among Panthers’ blue liners, and his 69 hits was fifth among that group. Matheson led the team with 118 blocked shots, but that mark put him only 70th in the NHL. This was all while the Panthers endured a disappointing season and missed the playoffs after winning the Atlantic Division the year before. Matheson is a solid defenseman, but he didn’t really excel at anything in particular in 2016-17 and didn’t necessarily help the team win. When it comes to a long-term extension though, consistency is the key and Matheson has been this good for a long time, right? Except, last year was his rookie season. Matheson has been a name in hockey for years now – a first-round pick in 2012 and a prolific career at powerhouse Boston College – but in reality he has just 84 NHL games under his belt and is just one year removed from a season spent almost entirely in the AHL.

So, why is GM Dale Tallon reportedly throwing this kind of money at him? Why could Matheson soon be paid more and for longer than the likes of Roman Josi and John Klingberg after just one alright NHL season? It could be that Panthers, who admittedly have seen more of Matheson than anyone else, see something more from the 23-year-old. Of course, it could also be, that after trading away Jason Demers, this extension is the result of some panic setting in. Ekblad is coming off a down season with some lingering injury concerns, Yandle is on the wrong side of 30, and Mark Pysyk and Alex Petrovic tend to be one-dimensional players. With Ekblad, Pysyk, and Petrovic all young, right-handed rearguards, that side of the defense could be set for the long haul, even if there are some concerns. However, on the left side, Matheson and Yandle are the only two established NHLers on the roster with nearly no high-end defensive prospects in the system. It seems likely that Florida sees Matheson as a worthy gamble because he is all they have to gamble on. Is that worth upwards of $40MM? Maybe not, but at least waiting until later in the season to gauge Matheson’s development could help to alleviate some of the risk. (Update: They didn’t.)

Florida Panthers To Give Tippett Every Chance To Make Team

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Since taking back control of the Florida Panthers franchise in April, general manager Dale Tallon has been busy reshaping his roster this offseason after the team failed to make the playoffs this past year. He unloaded young wing Reilly Smith and his large contract to Vegas along with soon-to-be unrestricted free agent Jon Marchessault to remove future cap problems that likely would have arisen. He handed out a one-year deal to free agent scorer Radim Vrbata to make up for some of that goal scoring and brought back former Panther Evgeni Dadonov from the KHL on a reasonable three-year deal. He also re-signed penalty killing defenseman Mark Pysyk to a three-year deal. However, his focus has been on building a team around its youthful core, including Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov, Vincent Trocheck, Nick Bjugstad and defenseman Aaron Ekblad, all who are 24 years of age or under and already locked up long-term. However, the Panthers might be ready to add another name to that list.

The Panthers seem ready to give their 2017 first-rounder Owen Tippett every chance to join their young team immediately, according to NBC Sports Adam Gretz. After an impressive showing at their development camp, Tallon was quick to point out that Tippett will be given every opportunity to make the squad this year.

“He’s going to get every opportunity,” said Tallon (via the Panthers). “I don’t have any problem and [head coach Bob Boughner] and our coaching staff don’t have any issues playing young guys. We’re building a team that’s going to be around for a long time and we’ll give him every opportunity to play this year.”

Tippett, who is a pure scorer, would fill a major need as many of their top players are playmakers rather than goal producers. The 18-year-old is coming off a season in which he scored 44 goals for Mississaugua Steelheads in the OHL last year. He was ranked as the seventh-best North American skater by NHL.com.

Keith Yandle, Dion Phaneuf Asked To Waive No-Movement Clauses

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With the Expansion Draft fast approaching, many players are expected to be approached themselves about waiving the No-Movement clauses attached to their contracts as their teams look to strategically navigate the strict expansion process. In his weekly “30 Thoughts” article posted this afternoon, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman states that he has heard that two big-name defenseman, Dion Phaneuf and Keith Yandle, have already been asked for such a waiver by their respective teams.

The news on Phaneuf is not unexepected; in fact many people have suspected all season long that the Ottawa Senators may ask the veteran to waive his No-Movement clause. The Senators have too much forward depth to apply the eight-skater protection scheme for the Expansion Draft and must instead use the 7-3 scheme. Thus, only three Ottawa defenseman can be protected. All-world blue liner Erik Karlsson is an obvious lock and presumably the other two spots would go to shutdown two-way man Marc Methot and young Cody Ceci if Phaneuf does choose to waive. If he doesn’t, the Sens would face a difficult choice between the two or would be forced into striking a trade over the next week. Phaneuf’s situation is interesting in that he actually outscored Ceci and Methot combined in 2016-17 and he has was more or less a complete success in his first full season in Ottawa, capped off by a strong playoff. The ideal scenario for Ottawa is to retain all three defenseman, but after the season that Phaneuf had, as well as his status as a well-known player, it could entice the Golden Knights and a waiver could mean the Senators end up losing their second-best defenseman. On the other hand, exposing Ceci, and to some extent Methot, would almost ensure losing either of them as well.

The situation with Yandle is a much bigger story. The Florida Panthers acquired Yandle’s negotiating rights from the New York Rangers around this time last year and inked him to a massive seven-year, $44.45MM contract. Yandle bypassed free agency and potentially more money to become the long-term partner of Calder-winner Aaron Ekblad and, at age 30, seemed poised to be a Panther for the rest of his career. Now it seems that might not be true. After just one year, Florida appears open to moving on from Yandle. The Panthers face a difficult expansion scenario on defense with, like the Senators, too many promising forwards to protect four defenseman. Even if they could, Florida would really like to protect five: Ekblad, Yandle, Jason Demers, another 2016 free agency splurge, and young play-makers Alex Petrovic and Mark Pysyk. All five defenseman meet the number of games needed (40 this past season or 70 over the past two seasons) to qualify for the one-defenseman exposure quota, but Petrovic and Pysyk are impending restricted free agents and the other half of the exposure criteria is term remaining on a contract. Thus, only Ekblad, Yandle, or Demers could fill the quota, unless Petrovic, Pysyk, or Jakub Kindl were re-signed just to be exposed. With Ekblad untouchable and Yandle having a No-Movement clause, at this time Demers is the only choice to be the sacrificial lamb. Vegas will surely have some interest in the 28-year-old righty, whether it be to lead their own defense or to flip to another suitor. However, by asking Yandle to waive his clause, it appears that Florida is instead leaning toward keeping Demers to themselves. Why? In his first season with Florida, Yandle did play in all 82 games and recorded 41 points, a good season by any measure, but it was in fact the worst production of any full season to date for the 11-year veteran. The Panthers may be worried that, at 30-years-old, Yandle is already on the decline, while Demers and his cap hit of nearly $2MM less for four more years may be a better investment. It will be interesting to see whether Yandle indeed waives his clause or not, but make no mistake: like Demers, if Yandle is exposed he will be an easy choice for Vegas to select to either highlight their blue line or trade to a contender.

Expansion Primer: Florida Panthers

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

After cracking 100 points and winning the Atlantic Division in 2015-16, injuries and overall under-performance sent the Panthers tumbling back to Earth in 2016-17. Florida finished with over 20 points less, at 81, good enough for sixth in the division and a top-ten draft slot. Yet, hopes remain high in Sunrise, FL as the Panthers are still a team built around young stars that has just begun to reach its potential. With Huberdeau, Trochek, Barkov, Bjugstad, Ekblad, and Matheson forming a core group under 25 with top prospects like forwards Henrik Borgstrom and Adam Mascherin and goalie Sam Montembeault still on the way, Florida only has to worry about adding complementary pieces to a talented young group.

Yet, the shadow of the Expansion Draft still looms large over the Panthers. With so many good, young players under contract, the expansion process will not be easy for the Cats. They may be able to protect their best young players, but they are nearly guaranteed to lose a solid complementary veteran.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards
Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov, Reilly Smith, Vincent Trocheck, Nick Bjugstad, Jussi Jokinen, Derek MacKenzie, Colton Sceviour, Jonathan Marchessault, Steven Hodges, Michael Sgarbossa, Graham Black

Defense
Keith Yandle (NMC), Aaron Ekblad, Jason Demers, Alex Petrovic, Mark Pysyk, MacKenzie Weegar, Reece Scarlett

Goaltender
Roberto Luongo, James Reimer

Notable Exemptions

Jared McCann, Denis Malgin, Michael Matheson, Ian McCoshen

Key Decisions

The Panthers don’t have an easy decision to make at any position group. They face the risk of losing a prominent forward, defenseman, or goalie if they don’t read the Vegas Golden Knights correctly. Perhaps the biggest name who may be left unprotected in net: potential future Hall of Fame goalie Roberto Luongo. Many were surprised when the Panthers brought back Luongo, and with him the remainder of a 12-year, $64MM contract, in 2014. Even more were surprised when, nonetheless, Florida signed James Reimer to a five-year, $17MM contract on July 1st of last year. That move seems like it has partly been leading up to this point. While Luongo and Reimer each started 39 games in 2016-17 with very similar records, Reimer had the edge on Luongo in performance statistics. While this was their first season sharing the net, it is now the second season in a row in which Reimer has outplayed Luongo. It seems very unlikely that Florida will choose to protect the 38-year-old Luongo, who is under contract at $5.33MM per year until the age of 43, over the 29-year-old Reimer, with a more reasonable $3.4MM cap hit over that same span of time. Luongo will thus likely be one of the biggest names under contract and available to Vegas, but don’t expect a new team to take on that contract. Should they expose Reimer instead, the chances are much higher that the Knights will select a Panther goalie, but chances are both keepers are back in Florida next year regardless.

Among the forward corps, there is a lot to sort out. To get the easy ones out of the way, young scorers Jonathan Huberdeau, Vincent Trocheck, Aleksander Barkov, and Nick Bjugstad are almost surely safe. Assuming the Panthers go with the 7/3 scheme, that leaves them with three forwards left to protect. If they do go 8-skaters, then those four would represent all the protected forwards. After a breakout campaign in which he led the Panthers with 30 goals, 26-year-old Jonathan Marchessault is also highly likely to be protected. This leaves just two spots left for four valuable veteran forwards: Reilly Smith, Jussi Jokinen, Colton Sceviour, and captain Derek MacKenzie. Luckily for the Panthers, all four meet the qualifications (having played 70 games over the last two seasons or 40 games last season and be under contract) to meet the two-forward quota, so whoever the GM Dale Tallon wants he can have without having to consider other expansion criteria. With the free agent status of Jaromir Jagr up in the air, the leadership value of Jokinen and MacKenzie must be considered by a young Florida team. However, MacKenzie has not scored more than 20 points in a season since 2010-11 and is likely not of interest to Vegas and can be left unprotected. So who of Jokinen, Smith, and Sceviour will join him in the Draft? The 25-year-old Smith has the best chance to be the best producer for the longest amount of time in Florida. This also could be a way for the Panthers to dump the five-year, $25MM extension they signed him to last summer before it even begins. As he did with the Boston Bruins, Smith had a great first season with Florida in 2015-16, but just as he did in Boston, Smith fell off significantly in year two. The Panthers will have to re-sign Bjugstad and Marchessault and give non-entry level deals to Denis Malgin, Jared McCann, and others before that contract expires. Can they afford the weight of a $5MM annual cap hit for an average player? If Smith has scared them off, expect them to expose him and hope Vegas takes the risk. If not, it comes down to Jokinen and Sceviour. Again, the 33-year-old Jokinen has the leadership and experience and is just one year removed from a 60-point season. Sceviour can’t boast that kind of career production, but at $950K to Jokinen’s $4MM and Smith’s $5MM, he gets the Panthers more bang for their buck.

Defense is the real nightmare for Florida. Keith Yandle’s No-Movement Clause makes him automatically protected, though he would be protected regardless after signing a seven-year deal last year that began with a nice 41-point season. Aaron Ekblad is also as close to a sure thing as their is in the Expansion Draft as far as protection. The 2015 Calder Trophy-winner struggled a bit last season, but is still a top pair defenseman at just 21 years old. That leaves defensive spot left in the 7/3 scheme and three stalwart defeseman to choose from: Jason Demers, Alex Petrovic, and Mark Pysyk. Unfortunately, unless circumstance change, Demers is out of the equation. With Yandle and Ekblad protected and Petrovic and Pysyk as restricted free agents, Demers is the only defenseman on the roster who can meet the 70-40 quota. It is possible for Florida to re-sign and expose Petrovic, Pysyk, or impending unrestricted free agent Jakub Kindl and then protect Demers, but their hesitation to do so yet seems to imply that they won’t be. Thus, Demers will be exposed and stands a very high chance of playing in Vegas next season. As for Petrovic verus Pysyk, both are similar in age and have great ability, but little to show for it on the score sheet early in their careers. The Panthers brass know best which 25-year-old fits best on the team, and likely both will remain in Florida, but don’t be surprised if they give the homegrown talent Petrovic the nod.

Projected Protection List

Scheme: 7F/3D/1G

Forwards

Jonathan Huberdeau
Vincent Trocheck
Aleksander Barkov
Nick Bjugstad
Jonathan Marchessault
Jussi Jokinen
Colton Sceviour

Defensemen

Keith Yandle (NMC)
Aaron Ekblad
Alex Petrovic

Goalie

James Reimer

Every team has a few risks that they must take in the Expansion Draft. As extraordinarily unlikely as it is, losing Luongo would be a blow and would cause the Panthers to have to change their off-season priorities to focus on helping Reimer in net. Smith being selected could come back to bite them if his $25MM deal pays off in Vegas. Being stripped of their captain would be rough on the locker room and they will likely hold out hope that there is no interest in MacKenzie. Having Pysyk taken from them after he was the centerpiece of last summer’s Dmitry Kulikov trade would feel like a waste.

So what sets Florida apart? Exposing Demers barely qualifies as a risk. The 28-year-old was one of the prizes of free agency last summer and just finished the first season of a relatively affordable five-year, $22.5MM deal. He scored 28 points this season, the second best campaign of his career and a level of production closer to that of his time back with the San Jose Sharks. He also has seen a steady climb in shooting percentage as the years have gone on and could easily break double digits next season, regardless of where he plays. However, the best thing about Demers for the Golden Knights is that he is a safe pick. He can lead their defense, can easily play 20+ minutes per night, can hit and block shots, and is signed long-term, meaning he can become a franchise player and potentially the team’s first captain. Unless the Panthers go 8-skaters or extend a current qualifying defenseman to then protect Demers, they face a real risk of losing a very solid player for nothing after just one year.

Florida Panthers’ Potential Targets

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The Florida Panthers were expected to do far better this past season than they ultimately did. Not unlike their Floridian rivals, the Tampa Bay Lightning, many were looking to this franchise to dominate a week Atlantic division. Looking back on a season with a coaching change, losing streaks, an lots of turmoil, how does the team recover and adjust their roster going forward?

Florida’s offensive core as of this moment consists of Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau, and Vincent Trocheck, with Nick Bjugstad, Reilly Smith, and the surprising Jonathan Marchessault feeling content in their roles. Their defensive core is essentially just Aaron Ekblad, with a decent if unremarkable group surrounding him. Keith Yandle has looked adequate but nowhere near worth his $6.35 MM contract, locked in until 2023. Unfortunately, that contract looks like an albatross that is there to stay. Jason Demers was solid if unremarkable, and the group as a whole struggled with consistency. With Thomas Vanek likely to look for a payday elsewhere, a declining Jaromir Jagr, and a brutal internal cap, it bodes questioning whether Florida will be able to compete for a playoff spot next season. Their youngsters performed above offensive expectations, with the notable exception of Huberdeau. Barkov, Trocheck, and Marchessault all broke 50 points. Yet the team still finished 14 points out of the playoffs, giving up .46 more goals than they scored in an average 60 minute game.

Florida needs to spend a moderate amount of money to acquire solid 3rd-line point producers. Minor league callups can fill the gaps on the fourth line to an extent, but rolling with only two viable offensive forward groups is a recipe for disaster in today’s NHL. They absolutely need a game-changer up front to provide run support for the young core. They might also look to bolster their D. Here are some potential targets the Panthers should consider for 2017-18, instead of spending precious dollars on the fading Jagr:

F – Ilya Kovalchuk – UFA/KHL

As mentioned by colleague Holger Stolzenberg, Ilya Kovalchuk is a definite possibility for Florida. They have the cap space to accomodate the sort of money he will be looking for, and they have a talented young group that could easily compete for a playoff run given the right moves. There are few players more dynamic with the puck on their stick than Kovalchuk. His savvy and remarkably consistent point production would be tailor made for the Panthers team in need of a true #1 threat as Barkov continues to progress. Jagr is that no longer, but replacing his insight and experience would be difficult to do. Kovalchuk hits all the checks in terms of need for Florida, and would help launch them back into the playoff conversation single-handedly.

D – Dmitry Kulikov – UFA

Kulikov had an absolutely awful season for the Buffalo Sabres, but he would be a very cheap reclamation project for his old stomping ground. He didn’t exit the Panthers with a good performance, either, posting only 17 points in 2015-16 and a terrible 46.8 Corsi For Percentage. Kulikov had one year remaining with the Sabres at $4.3 MMl, and posted a 5 points and a -26 through 47 games. And yet, he was part of the group that propelled the team into the post-season and a Game 7 that could’ve gone either way. He’s a smooth skating 26 year-old defenseman who moves the puck with a decent offensive hockey IQ. He makes mistakes in his own zone, but he pushed the pace of the game in a way that is difficult to replace. His contract would be dirt-cheap and there is always the possibility he finds his groove back in the Sunshine State.

F – Matt Duchene – Colorado Avalanche

Matt Duchene is another talented player who had a truly down year. Duchene was rumored to be moved for months, but come deadline, GM Joe Sakic didn’t find the pieces he was looking for. In Florida, there is a definite fit if the Panthers are willing to take the risk. They have the defensive pieces the Avalanche would want in return, and Duchene would provide another dynamic offensive force to a struggling offense. Sakic is almost certain to pull the trigger eventually, so the Panthers GM will simply need to be persistent. Duchene can set up plays with the best of them when he is on his game. His speed and infectious energy would also fit in well with the group of youngsters down south.

F – Justin WIlliams – UFA

WIlliams is almost certain to be a top commodity in a weak UFA class. However, his wealth of playoff experience would come in quite handy for this team and hasn’t showed signs of slowing down. He would add an element of grit to the lineup, as well, rounding out their offense. He would be a wonderful mentor for the likes of Barkov, Trochec, and oothers. He can slot up and down the roster and is practically a lock to score at least 20 goals as a 35 year-old. If the Panthers find their way into the first round, a player of his mold would be certainly welcome in close contests. The main obstacle to this getting done is of course the price, which may prove too steep for a team in rebuild, low-cost mode. He also could want term at this stage of his playing career, and that could be a risky proposal if longer than 2 or 3 years.

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