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Latest On Tony DeAngelo

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Two days later and no trade in sight. The Philadelphia Flyers were closing in on a deal that would send Tony DeAngelo back to the Carolina Hurricanes over the weekend, but things have hit a snag.

Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic reports that it is likely because of some hesitation from the NHL, over potential cap circumvention. DeAngelo was meant to go to Carolina with the Flyers retaining some salary, but since he was traded from the Hurricanes less than a year ago, it raised some red flags.

As LeBrun explains, this isn’t exactly a regular situation. The Hurricanes traded him as an RFA, meaning they didn’t sign this contract, and Daniel Briere, the Flyers’ GM, wasn’t in place yet when Philadelphia inked this deal. There’s no real circumvention here, just a player that has worn out his welcome and a team looking to create cap space.

The league is expected to meet with both teams in Nashville this week for the draft, where they will have to decide. Either sign off on it early, or force the teams to wait until July 9, when the calendar year since last summer’s trade would be up.

It does still seem like things are headed in that direction, though a two-week delay can change things considerably at this time of year.

Five Key Stories: 6/19/23 – 6/25/23

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With the draft and free agency almost upon us, activity around the league has started to pick up with an expectation of plenty more to come, including resolutions to trades that are reportedly in the works.  Here’s a rundown of the top stories from the past seven days.

Middlemen Off The Market: This isn’t the greatest free agent crop for centers and the crop got considerably thinner over the past week with four players coming off the market.  First, Montreal re-signed Sean Monahan to a one-year contract that’s worth $2MM if he meets his games played bonus, giving the veteran a chance to prove he has recovered from his injuries this past season.  Then it was Buffalo’s turn as they inked long-time Sabre Zemgus Girgensons to a one-year, $2.5MM deal to keep him as a fixture in their bottom six.  Erik Haula made it known that he wanted to remain with New Jersey and he got his wish, signing a three-year contract that carries a $3.15MM AAV.  Then, following reports that contract talks were stalling out, Carolina and Jordan Staal were able to reach a new four-year contract, one that carries an AAV of $2.9MM and has a full no-move clause for the first three seasons.

Coyotes Make Moves: In recent years, the Coyotes have willingly taken on unwanted contracts in exchange for future assets with those players either staying on the roster or landing on injured reserve.  Now, the team is changing course as they’ve parted ways with a pair of those unwanted deals, buying out defenseman Patrik Nemeth and winger Zack Kassian.  The moves result in $1.833MM in dead cap for next season and $1.983MM in 2024-25.  Then, Arizona opted to trade away one of their surplus selections, sending Montreal’s 2024 second-round pick to Los Angeles to acquire defenseman Sean Durzi.  The 24-year-old had 38 points in his sophomore year for the Kings and could be part of the back end for the Coyotes for several years.  After that, they re-upped goaltender Connor Ingram to a new three-year deal with a cap hit of $1.95MM.  In 17 appearances in 2023, the 26-year-old put up a .922 SV% and if he can stay even close to that level, it could wind up being a club-friendly deal.

Johansen To Colorado: The Avalanche decided to get a head start on their center shopping as they acquired Ryan Johansen from Nashville in exchange for the rights to pending UFA forward Alex Galchenyuk.  As part of the move, the Predators are retaining half of Johansen’s $8MM for the final two seasons of his contract.  The 30-year-old is coming off a down season that saw him put up just 28 points in 55 games before missing the last couple of months after undergoing emergency leg surgery.  However, he’s just a year removed from a 63-point campaign so Colorado is hoping that a change of scenery could give him a spark.  In a move that basically amounts to acquiring him for future considerations, it’s certainly a worthwhile chance to take for them while Nashville settles for simply clearing half of his contract off their books.

Hall Of Famers: Away from the rink, the next group of Hockey Hall of Famers was announced.  A total of seven people will enter the Hall next season, including builders Ken Hitchcock and Pierre Lacroix (posthumously), goaltenders Mike Vernon, Tom Barrasso, and Henrik Lundqvist, plus forwards Pierre Turgeon and Caroline Ouellette.  Of the seven inductees, only Lundqvist was named in his first year of eligibility.  Meanwhile, it’s the second Hall of Fame honor of the year for Ouellette who was also named to the IIHF Hall of Fame earlier this year.

Departures In Calgary? Last week, there was a belief that defenseman Noah Hanifin would be on the way out in Calgary.  He might not be the only one.  First, reports emerged that center Elias Lindholm hasn’t accepted a long-term extension offer from the Flames while fellow middleman Mikael Backlund may also be leaning toward leaving the team.  Then, another report suggested that Tyler Toffoli isn’t likely to re-sign either.  All four players are eligible for unrestricted free agency next summer but if they’re not willing to stick around, GM Craig Conroy could be busy in the coming days and weeks by sending those players to teams that they might be willing to ink new deals with.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: Florida Panthers

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The offseason is now fully underway after Vegas took home the Stanley Cup which means that it’s time to examine what each team will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Florida.

What an interesting year it was for the Panthers.  After winning the Presidents’ Trophy, the team moved two core pieces in Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar to Calgary for Matthew Tkachuk, a swap that many felt would see them take a small step back to take a bigger step forward a little later on.  It played out that way early as they were out of the playoffs for long portions of the season.  However, they got into the final Wild Card spot and beat Boston, Toronto, and Carolina to come out of the East.  Now, GM Bill Zito has more cap flexibility than he had last summer to try to add to his roster but there are some question marks on how much he’ll be able to use which factors into in their checklist below.

Add Defensive Help

When fully healthy, Florida’s defense corps wasn’t the deepest to begin with.  Now, they’re set to possibly lose Radko Gudas and Marc Staal to free agency while Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour, their top two blueliners, played through serious injuries in the playoffs and might not be ready to start next season.  They already could have used a top-four blueliner.  Now, it’s more or less a necessity.

It’s also worth noting that the blueliner with the longest contract on their current roster is Ekblad.  His deal has just two years remaining.  Other than Josh Mahura, a depth defender, all of their current blueliners will be UFA-eligible when their existing contracts expire.  That’s a lot of potential turnover in a short period of time.

With that in mind, while some have wondered if Zito might be interested in short-term options due to the injuries, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to at least look to the higher end of the free agent market where the top options will get longer-term contracts.  Yes, those deals tend to be too long and a little too expensive but this is a franchise that doesn’t exactly have a lot of tradeable assets right now after going all-in in 2021-22.  A move like that would give them a short-term lift and ensure they’ll have at least one capable veteran in the fold for the long haul.

As things stand, Florida has roughly $10MM in cap room at their disposal, per CapFriendly.  They have to sign at least two blueliners (probably three) and a couple of forwards with that money but if the depth options are closer to the minimum, there’s enough room for an impact addition.  Yes, there could be LTIR money available in the short term but that money can’t really be spent externally as the Panthers would have to be cap-compliant once the injured players are ready to return.  Instead, any ‘savings’ there would go toward carrying a full roster at the start of the season.

Extension Talks

July 1st is the day that players entering the final year of their respective contracts are eligible to sign contract extensions.  Florida has several key regulars in that situation.  On the back end, Montour and Gustav Forsling are both set to hit the final year of their very team-friendly deals.  Up front, Sam Reinhart and Anthony Duclair are in the same spot.

Montour’s case is going to be a particularly fascinating one to follow.  For years, he had shown promise at times but hadn’t been able to consistently produce and as a result, he remained in more of a limited role.  This past season, that all changed.  Montour’s production exploded, going from a decent 37 points a year ago to a whopping 73.  He barely cracked the top 40 for scoring by a defenseman in 2021-22 and was fifth in 2022-23.  He’s on a bargain contract at $3.5MM and if they want to extend him now, it might take twice as much if not more to lock up the 29-year-old.  The shoulder injury could give Zito some pause but it wouldn’t be surprising to see them try to get something done this summer.

As for Forsling, he has certainly been one of the best waiver claims in recent memory, going from a Carolina castaway to a 23-minute per-game defender.  The 27-year-old had a breakout year in 2021-22 and put up very similar numbers this past season, showing that it wasn’t just a fluke.  He is now logging heavy minutes shorthanded, making him an all-around defender.  With his age and recent production, he, too, could more than double his current AAV of just under $2.7MM.

Up front, Reinhart’s second bridge contract has worked out well for both sides.  He has taken his production to a new level in Florida, even after taking a bit of a step back this season.  The 27-year-old has also shown that he can play down the middle which makes him much more valuable around the league with top-six centers being difficult to come by.  His current AAV is $6.5MM and it would likely take at least a couple million more than that (putting him a little below Matthew Tkachuk on the salary scale) to get him to commit to an early extension.

Then there’s Duclair.  The 27-year-old missed most of this past season as he worked his way back from a torn Achilles’ tendon and, unsurprisingly, he was a bit quiet when he returned before putting together a decent playoff showing with 11 points in 20 games.  He’s only a year removed from a breakout 31-goal campaign which should factor into negotiations as well.  Duclair intends to represent himself again in those discussions and with the long layoff, it’s reasonable to think they might agree to defer talks until later in the season to see how he fares after a full summer of recovery.

Not all of these players are going to sign extensions over the summer but it wouldn’t be surprising to see Zito get one or two of these locked up over the coming months.

Get Help For The Penalty Kill

The Panthers were one of the top teams at five-on-five this past season which is typically a good sign of how strong a team is.  However, the fact that they barely picked up the final Wild Card spot is in large part due to the fact that their penalty kill struggled considerably with a success rate of just under 76%, a few points below the league average.  In the playoffs, that number dipped even further to just 70.4%.  That’s an area that could certainly stand to be improved.

If Florida goes and gets an impact defenseman, that should help but adding some defensive acumen to their final couple of forwards would also help.  Eric Staal (a pending UFA) logged heavy minutes on the penalty kill this past season, a role he hadn’t typically played in his prime.  Eetu Luostarinen isn’t a premier defensive forward either; those two led all Florida forwards in shorthanded ATOI.  Filling out the depth chart with some shutdown options might take away a bit offensively but if it helps them kill enough penalties to balance out, it’ll be worth doing.

Depth Decisions

Alex Lyon more than served his purpose as a capable third-string goaltender who stepped in when Spencer Knight departed for the Player Assistance Program and even took over as the starter with Sergei Bobrovsky struggling at the time.  He may have done well enough to get a shot as a backup somewhere so this is a spot that will need to be filled.  A veteran depth goalie isn’t usually an important offseason add but with Bobrovsky’s inconsistency and Knight’s relative inexperience, determining and landing the top option on that market takes a higher level of importance.

Meanwhile, a decision needs to be made soon on the fate of center Colin White.  The 26-year-old had an okay year in a very limited role but still provided some value on a contract that was just $100K above the league minimum after being bought out by Ottawa.  Still not old enough to reach unrestricted free agency, Florida could tender him a qualifying offer to keep his rights.  However, doing so would give him arbitration eligibility and bring his previous production (including a 41-point year in 2018-19) into the picture.  That’s not ideal for the Panthers so they need to decide if they want to try to re-sign him before Friday’s tender deadline or if they want to cut bait and perhaps add a more defensive-oriented depth player into the mix.

These are two roles that can be filled quickly in free agency within the first couple of hours so Zito will need to have his plan in place to make sure he lands his targets (or gets White on another bargain contract).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PHR Mailbag: Blackhawks, Playoffs, Bobrovsky, Goalies, Panthers, Expansion

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Chicago and their goaltending, way-too-early predictions for new playoff teams next season, Sergei Bobrovsky’s volatility, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in our last two mailbags.

Unclemike1526: The Blackhawks have Mrazek and Soderblom-Stauber for this year. We’re stuck with Mrazek. So Commesso, and maybe Basse in the system. I think the Hawks should draft Hrabal, however they need to. I saw one mock draft saying the Hawks would draft Trey Augustine in the second round. What is your opinion of Hrabal and Augustine? I think the Hawks stay put at 1 and 19. Then they take their high second-round pick and package it with a player or more picks to get back into the late 1st round and take Hrabal or if he’s gone, Gauthier. I think that would be a great scenario for the Hawks. I think you can never have enough good goalies. Thoughts?

I like Michael Hrabal but it feels to me like his stock is soaring a bit too high right now.  Yes, he’s big and big is good for a goalie but I’m not convinced he’s a 1A starter down the road.  He’s raw and rangy and those players don’t always pan out.  Size allows him to get to more shots but he still needs to be technically sound and by most accounts, that’s something that still needs a lot of work.  If he’s a platoon player, he can still have a long and productive career but is a platoon goalie worth a first-rounder?  I don’t think it is.  I wouldn’t be shocked if someone picks him in the first round but I’m not convinced that it’s a good idea.  In your scenario, I like the idea of trading up for Ethan Gauthier more than I do for Hrabal.  If Hrabal is there at 35, grab him then.

As for Augustine, I think he might be the better goalie of the two but while Hrabal’s size has sent his stock soaring, Augustine’s size has lowered him in the rankings.  He’s more of a technically-sound netminder and in a structured system, I think he can do quite well, at least as a platoon option.  Chicago is anything but structured right now but any goalie being taken is going to be four years or more away from being NHL-ready.  I’m betting that by then, the Blackhawks’ defense will be much better than it is now.

As for the philosophical idea of never having enough good goalies, I tend to agree if a team is trending toward a platoon as many are.  The value in that approach is saving money relative to having a true starter and a backup but it also means that you need to have a few netminders in the system.  As soon as one of those platoon pieces gets too expensive, the next in-house option needs to be ready for this to work as planned.

Generally speaking, there are only around 20 goalies that are picked in a typical draft year.  With more teams going to a platoon system, that number should be higher.  We’ll find out soon enough if that trend continues or if teams get more aggressive in getting netminders into their prospect pools.

random comment guy: I would like to piggyback off this, with the Hawks needing to reach the cap floor (roughly $16M or so), what teams will be calling to get high-salary players off their roster? I assume the Hawks will want 1-2 year contracts as it will fit their timeline. Also, do you feel that the return should be more draft picks or prospects/players?

There are a few groups of teams in the category of needing to move money.  There are those that have a high-priced contract for an underachieving player that are just looking to get out of the deal.  Think the Islanders and Josh Bailey.  There are those that wouldn’t mind offloading an LTIR-bound contract such as the Maple Leafs and Jake Muzzin.  Then there are teams that don’t want to move a player but whose cap situations are going to force their hand.  Boston and to a lesser extent Edmonton are among those.  Vancouver is sort of here as well although they don’t have to make a move, they just might prefer to.

I agree that Chicago – or any team acting as a clearinghouse – will be looking for short-term contracts.  Why take on a long-term agreement that could be problematic down the road if it can be avoided?  Sure, there could be more futures coming their way as compensation but there’s a limit to how much a team is going to pay to offload an unwanted contract and it probably won’t be enough to justify a long-term acquisition.

I’d put the Blackhawks in a spot where they should be targeting prospects.  They’re not ready to push for a playoff spot yet, even with Connor Bedard giving them a big boost offensively.  They’ve just gutted too much of the core to turn it around in a year.  But getting more draft picks that are years away from playing doesn’t make sense either.  The sweet spot for them should be drafted players between 19 and 22 (give or take a year) that are on the cusp of being ready.  Those will be the core pieces that align with Bedard’s timeline and part of the core that eventually helps lead them back into contention.  A year or two from now when it’s time to flip the switch, then go after the win-now players who will then be augmented by this prospect core.

M34: Waaaay too early predictions. Two or three teams from each conference’s playoff picture, that won’t make the playoffs next year. And who takes their spots?

The next couple of weeks could make me look silly on this but here goes nothing.

East: Even with Alex DeBrincat likely to be moved, the Senators can still do some damage next season.  A full season from Josh Norris will help.  I think they’re going to get a goalie.  And with the cap space they free up from a DeBrincat swap, they’re likely to add a piece or two of note in free agency or by taking on a player in a trade.  I also expect the Penguins to find a way to get back in.  They have some cap flexibility this summer and while they have a few holes to fill with that money, I think they’ll be able to add a piece or two to help get them over the hump for a Wild Card position.  It wouldn’t shock me to see Buffalo get in there as well as their roster continues to improve and likely has a move or two to be made in the coming weeks.

In terms of who misses out, the Panthers come to mind.  I had this same concern with Boston last summer (and boy, was I wrong there) but I figured their injuries would cause them to struggle out of the gate and even though they’d be a playoff-caliber team, they’d have too much of a hill to climb by the time the team got healthy.  I could see this happening with Florida.  I’ll say the Islanders also just miss out.  Their desired style of play is good for keeping things close but they still lack an above-average attack and their back end could be weakened if Scott Mayfield can’t be retained.  They’ll be competitive but just miss out.  If Boston really has to blow things up, it wouldn’t shock me if they just missed out.  It also wouldn’t shock me if Tampa Bay, bereft of even more depth next season, gets bit by the injury bug and with a weaker roster, ultimately comes up short.

West: I have one team that I have a bit of confidence in that could get in and that’s Vancouver.  Thatcher Demko should be better.  Their offense is already strong.  I don’t think they’re going to leave their back end as is.  On paper, that roster should be a playoff-caliber group.  Calgary is going to be forced to sell, Nashville might be bottoming out, Arizona and Chicago should be better but not playoff-ready and Anaheim and San Jose aren’t close.  I guess St. Louis is my second team by default since I have to pick at least two but let’s just say I’m not typing this with much conviction.

Winnipeg is the logical team to be replaced as it sure feels like they, too, are heading for at least some sort of step back.  It’d be tough to move that much of their core and improve.  And if I have to pick a team for St. Louis to knock out, I guess it’d be Seattle.  There’s a fine line to navigate for teams built like they are.  When it works, they can be a handful but if a couple of players take a step back offensively, that could be the difference, especially with their question marks between the pipes.

PyramidHeadcrab: So what’s the deal with Sergei Bobrovsky? Every player has ups and downs, but this guy seems to swing wildly from Vezina caliber to $10MM paperweight. Has any other goalie in NHL history been so wildly inconsistent? And what might you surmise the reasoning behind it is? Injury? Personality? Poor coaching?

There’s a 33-point gap between Bobrovsky’s best year and worst in terms of save percentage.  That’s definitely on the high side.  My first instinct when I saw the comparables question was Ilya Bryzgalov but as erratic as he was, the gap in the prime of his career wasn’t anywhere close.  Tim Thomas also has a 33-point difference but I wouldn’t put him on the same scale of wild inconsistency.  Mike Smith went from .899 one year to .930 and then within a few years, was down to .904.  Objectively speaking, there’s probably someone whose year-to-year volatility is comparable to Bobrovsky but one doesn’t come to mind right away.  And even so, Bobrovsky’s game-to-game and even period-to-period variances still could make him unique.

He has had enough goalie coaches over his career that it’s probably not that.  I don’t think it’s injury-related either.  I think it’s a confidence thing.  Some players rattle easy and he might be one of them; a bad goal bugs him and eventually it nosedives into another bad one, then another, etc.  On the flip side, a few big saves beget a few more big saves and then he gets on a roll.  Goaltending is just a weird position and there isn’t necessarily a lot of predictability involved other than to say there shouldn’t be much in the way of predictability.  This JFresh article from 2020 (Bobrovsky’s first season with Florida) better describes the volatility of the position.  Bobrovsky manages to take that to a whole other level.

The Duke: Crystal Ball – Goaltenders Edition: Where do Gibson, Saros, UPL, and Hill play next season – and how successful will each be?

John Gibson – I guess the ball doesn’t get to say Anaheim anymore, does it?  Let’s go with Pittsburgh with the Ducks retaining a small percentage of the deal to get the net cost closer to $5.5MM.  Playing behind a better team with playoff aspirations, he adds 13 points to his save percentage of .899, giving the Penguins a net gain on their team save percentage and that’s enough of a difference to get them a few more wins in the standings.

Juuse Saros – Nashville is moving a lot of players but this is one of those cases where they’re not going to get a max return if they move him now.  Not with Connor Hellebuyck out there; there are only a handful of teams that will be willing to pay up for a true starter.  He might not finish the season there but he should start it there.  With a weaker group in front of him, he loses a few points off the .919 SV% he put up last season.  That’s still well above average but it probably won’t be enough to get a bunch of wins unless they wind up buying big after selling big.

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen – There’s a definite case to be made for Buffalo to add a goaltender and if they do, Luukkonen is probably going elsewhere.  But the ball sees them investigating the market and then deciding to go with Luukkonen and Levi to start, believing that if they need to make an in-season move to get a stabilizer between the pipes, they’ll be able to do so.  After putting up an .891 SV% this past season, Luukkonen winds up closer to the NHL average (which should be somewhere in the .905 range).

Adin Hill – Staying in Vegas seems like the most probable scenario, especially since it appears that he’s nearing an extension.  With a heavier workload than he’s used to having during the regular season, Hill’s SV% dips a few points from .915 to .911.

Red Wings: Panthers should have some cap space this summer. If they add one piece, should they target Bertuzzi or Orlov?

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Poll: What Has Been The Most Impactful Pre-Draft Trade?

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The 2023 NHL Draft is now only three days away, and there has already been a flurry of activity in the NHL trade market. Yesterday, we saw the Colorado Avalanche acquire Ryan Johansen from the Nashville Predators, and the Arizona Coyotes acquire Sean Durzi from the Los Angeles Kings. Following up on those deals, there is heavy expectation that the St. Louis Blues will acquire Kevin Hayes from the Philadelphia Flyers, and the Carolina Hurricanes will add back Anthony DeAngelo to their lineup. If yesterday didn’t bring enough action, it’s also expected that the Kings are close to acquiring Pierre-Luc Dubois from the Winnipeg Jets.

After losing Nazem Kadri to the Calgary Flames last offseason, the Avalanche had a very difficult time replacing the void left by Kadri on the team’s second forward line. Throughout this past season, Colorado originally tried to patrol Alex Newhook in that role, but after failing to live up to expectations, J.T. Compher was thrust into that role. Compher did excel, scoring 17 goals and 35 assists this season, the best statistical performance of his career. Unfortunately for the Avalanche, Compher is set to enter unrestricted free agency, and Colorado may not have the cap space to retain him.

By acquiring Johansen from the Predators, the Avalanche clearly wanted to make an outside move to complete their second line. This past season, Johansen did not play particularly well, scoring 12 goals and 16 assists in 55 games, having his season ended by a foot injury in February. However, the year prior, Johansen was a proficient offensive player in Nashville, scoring 26 goals and 37 assists.

Sticking in the Central Division, the expected acquisition of Hayes for the Blues should fill the void left behind by Ryan O’Reilly last season. Hayes has very much had an up-and-down career, having much of his time spent in Philadelphia hampered by injuries. This past season, he did have the best offensive output so far with the Flyers, scoring 18 goals and 36 assists in 81 games. It was well known that Hayes and head coach John Tortorella sparred quite consistently, and it was becoming more and more clear that his time in Philadelphia would be coming to an end.

In Los Angeles, the Kings’ trade of Durzi largely indicated that the team was trying to move out money to acquire better talent. In Durzi, Los Angeles largely had a defenseman that was exceptional at moving the puck but was not as responsible on the defensive side of the game. He did score 38 points last year for the Kings, but the underlying defensive metrics were not positive. Opening up $1.7MM with that trade, it has now been reported that the Kings are expected to acquire Dubois, as well as sign him to an extension. Not only will this move allow the Kings to strengthen their second line, but by being able to move Phillip Danault to the third-line center position, Los Angeles may be one of the deepest teams in the Western Conference.

Lastly, the Hurricanes are bringing back a familiar face, as reports indicate that Carolina and Philadelphia are working on a trade. Last offseason, the Hurricanes felt that DeAngelo’s asking price on his next contract was too rich for their blood, and moved him to the Flyers for three draft picks. By acquiring DeAngelo, Carolina now has four defensemen set to hit unrestricted free agency next season, even though it does strengthen their blue line for next year.

After all the moves up to this point, which player do you think will have the biggest impact on their next team?

Latest On Pierre-Luc Dubois, Los Angeles Kings

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After months of rumors regarding Winnipeg Jets center Pierre-Luc Dubois and his hometown team, the Montreal Canadiens, Dubois’ long-term landing spot has finally come into focus.

TVA Sports’ Renaud Lavoie reported this morning that the Los Angeles Kings “continue to pursue Pierre-Luc Dubois,” and The Fourth Period’s David Pagnotta followed up reporting on a trade being worked on that would land Dubois in Los Angeles with “multiple players/pieces” going to Winnipeg, including forwards Gabriel Vilardi and Alex Iafallo. Sportsnet’s Ken Wiebe adds that he’s “expecting F Jansen Harkins to be involved” in a Dubois trade to Los Angeles as well.

Now, The Athletic’s Murat Ates has given a more firm indication that Dubois could be headed to California, reporting that the Kings and Dubois are “talking contract extension,” and although there are still things to be worked out regarding the deal and the exact trade, “things are well on their way” toward Dubois landing in Los Angeles.

That would be a relatively surprising outcome given the strong indications over the ongoing Dubois trade saga that his preferred destination was Montreal. But finding an ideal match between the Jets and Canadiens for a Dubois trade seems to have been difficult, especially since Montreal would likely be loath to surrender rising center Kirby Dach as part of a trade package. Los Angeles has a deeper pool of NHL-ready assets to attract the Jets as a trade partner, which is likely why a Dubois to L.A. move has gotten significantly more concrete momentum than a Dubois-to-Montreal trade.

For the Kings, adding Dubois is in large part about succession planning for the eventual end of incumbent number-one center Anze Kopitar’s playing career.

Kopitar, 35, scored 74 points and showed no real signs of slowing down this past season but with his contract set to expire next summer, Kopitar’s future is becoming more and more of a team focus.

A top-of-the-lineup number-one center might just be the hardest thing to acquire in the NHL, and given the slower-than-expected development of 2020 second-overall pick Quinton Byfield, Dubois represents perhaps the best chance the Kings have at finding a franchise face for when Kopitar’s playing days are over.

Dubois and Kopitar are represented by the same agent, CAA’s Pat Brisson, so that shared relationship could aid the Kings in their efforts to lock up Dubois as their next star forward.

It’s still up for debate whether Dubois is a true number-one center in the NHL. He scored 63 points in 77 games this past season and has certainly shown flashes of greatness, but he has also left fans wanting more at both NHL stops in his career.

In the immediate term, Dubois would be an exceptional complement to Kopitar in the team’s top-six, and would shift Danault into a third-line center role. Danault, who scored 54 points last season and is among the league’s most well-respected defensive centers, would instantly become arguably the league’s top third-line pivot and their new arrangement would give the Kings some of the best center depth in the NHL.

Seeing as Dubois has been rumored to be seeking a maximum-term contract extension that mirrors the financial value of the $8.7MM contract Dylan Larkin received from the Detroit Red Wings, by actively attempting to acquire and extend him it’s clear the Kings believe in Dubois’ potential to be Kopitar’s successor as a number-one center. All that’s left now is for the team to complete the deal and for Dubois to prove them right on the ice next season.

For the Jets, this trade is about moving forward from a player who didn’t see a long-term future for himself in Winnipeg and getting the best possible return for the one year left of control they have over Dubois’ services. While a trade has yet to be completed and the rumored return centering around Iafallo and Vilardi is still just that, a rumor, Vilardi’s presence as a centerpiece player reveals the Jets’ priorities in their trade negotiations.

Despite facing quite a few significant departures in the next few weeks, the Jets remain committed to building around their established stars such as Kyle Connor and Josh Morrissey.

Getting Vilardi and locking him down to a long-term contract would add another building block into the mix, especially after Vilardi’s breakout 2022-23 campaign where he scored 23 goals and 41 points in 63 games. While Vilardi has been a winger at the NHL level, he does have some prior experience playing center and the Jets could be planning on trying Vilardi down the middle again if they do end up acquiring him.

Again, it must be stressed that no trade is completed at the current moment and that how Winnipeg fares in this trade will likely come down to whether Vilardi is indeed the centerpiece of the deal and what other players, prospects, or picks are involved. At this moment the most concrete development that has been reported is that Dubois’ camp is actively negotiating an extension with the Kings, meaning the long-awaited trade could be just around the corner.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

East Notes: Sanheim, Rohrer, Smith

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Although it seemed yesterday that Philadelphia Flyers defenseman Travis Sanheim was headed to St. Louis as part of one version of the blockbuster Kevin Hayes trade that is still yet to be fully ironed out, new details have emerged on Hayes’ status. Defenseman Torey Krug is reportedly not waiving his no-trade clause to be part of the Hayes deal, likely eliminating the possibility of Sanheim getting included in the trade. That doesn’t mean Sanheim won’t be on the move this summer, though.

The Fourth Period’s David Pagnotta reports that “a few teams spoke with Philly about Sanheim, including the Toronto Maple Leafs.” While Sanheim’s $6.25MM cap hit expiring in the early 2030’s might seem difficult for Toronto to fit on their books, Sanheim would certainly be an intriguing addition to the left side of their defense. Worth noting is a conflicting report from Crossing Broad’s Anthony SanFilippo, who tweets that Toronto has not yet spoken to the Flyers about a possible Sanheim deal.

Some other notes from the NHL’s Eastern Conference:

  • Montreal Canadiens prospect Vinzenz Rohrer has signed a two-year deal with the ZSC Lions of Switzerland’s National League, per a team announcement. Rohrer, 18, was a third-round pick of the Canadiens at the 2022 draft and has played the last two seasons with the Ottawa 67’s of the OHL, scoring 97 points in 118 games and earning Second-Team All-Rookie honors in the OHL in 2021-22. The Austrian forward captained ZSC’s U17 side at the junior level and with this contract, he’ll now get the chance to test himself at the pro level against men.
  • The Columbus Blue Jackets’ choice at the number-three pick is one of the more intriguing storylines heading into the draft three days from now, and The Athletic’s Aaron Portzline has injected some more mystery into the lead-up to draft night. Writing what he called “informed, but highly speculative insights” Portzline said “The Blue Jackets are huge Will Smith fans,” and that “if we had to pick one today, some 72 hours before the draft, we’d lean toward Smith.” (subscription link) Seeing as Portzline stressed the speculative nature of those insights his piece shouldn’t be seen as a firm indication of Columbus’ preferences, but rather more of an indication that their choice at number three between Smith, Leo Carlsson, and potentially Adam Fantilli isn’t as clear-cut as some might lead one to believe.

Flyers, Blues Working On Kevin Hayes Trade

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06/25/23 11:10 am: Di Marco has added to Friedman’s report that Krug is planning on staying put in St. Louis. He tweeted that Hayes could be the lone player headed to St. Louis in a re-worked trade, in a deal similar to the Ryan Johansen trade from yesterday.

Di Marco said that the Flyers “expect a lot back if this is the case,” meaning what once looked to be a larger deal with major pieces changing hands and potentially netting the Flyers another first-round pick could now be a more straightforward transaction.

06/25/23 9:30 am: Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman has reported that Krug “is leaning towards not waiving his no-trade clause.” Since Krug has a full no-trade clause on his contract, he not only has the right to veto any deal that would land him in Philadelphia, but any trade in general.

Based on Friedman’s report, it seems Krug is leaning towards using his no-trade rights to guarantee an outcome where he remains in St. Louis. It’s a development that has the potential to markedly change the complexion of this Hayes trade, or maybe even cause the deal to fall apart completely.

06/24/23 9:05 pm: The main writer for the St. Louis Blues on The Athletic, Jeremy Rutherford, released some definitive details on the trade. Although nothing is set in stone as of right now, in his article in The Athletic, he confirms that both Hayes and Sanheim will be headed to St. Louis, while Torey Krug and one of the Blues’ first-round picks in this year’s draft will head to Philadelphia. However, because of the no-trade clause in his contract, Krug will not be wearing a Flyers sweater next season. This would be the major hurdle in the trade, as the Flyers’ are looking for a third team to facilitate another trade for Krug.

06/24/23 6:52 pm: TVA’s Renaud Lavoie adds Marco Scandella is not the Blues party holding up the deal – he does not have full trade protection, and the Flyers are not on his no-trade list.

06/24/23 6:19 pm: Multiple reports suggest a Blues player has not waived a no-trade or no-move clause, holding up the trade going through. Rutherford reports this player is NOT Colton Parayko or Nick Leddy. The Athletic’s Charlie O’Connor reports that Flyers defender Travis Sanheim could be heading to St. Louis along with Hayes, but the moving parts in the deal are far from finalized.

06/24/23 4:10 pm: The Philadelphia Flyers and St. Louis Blues are finalizing a trade revolving around center Kevin Hayes, according to reports from The Athletic’s Jeremy Rutherford and The Fourth Period’s Anthony Di Marco.

Both DiMarco’s and Rutherford’s reports indicate this is set to be quite a complex trade with multiple moving parts. The Flyers were reportedly looking to add a third first-round selection in this year’s draft, while the Blues were looking to trade one of their two first-round picks later in the draft (25th or 29th overall).

Hayes was one of many Flyers involved in rampant trade speculation in recent weeks, although he’d mostly been connected to the Columbus Blue Jackets going back to last year. Those talks, which continued into this offseason, reportedly fell off last week.

Now 31 years old, Hayes was still among the Flyers’ highest-scoring players during a tough year offensively for the team. His 18 goals, 36 assists, and 54 points were actually his best point-producing pace since signing a seven-year, $50MM contract with Philadelphia in free agency in 2019. Those 36 assists led the team, and his 54 points were good enough for second on the team behind Travis Konecny, who was the only point-per-game Flyer this season.

Hayes still has three years remaining on that contract, which pays him $7.143MM per season. It’s a very steep cap hit for a player with defensive deficiencies who’s only a safe bet for 45-60 points in a full season, which would lead to questions about salary retention. The Blues have some steep contracts paid out to their defenseman, though, which could soften the blow if they’re able to move one of them to the Flyers in this deal – which is poised to include multiple NHL roster players in both directions.

This page will be updated as details of the return are reported.

Carolina Hurricanes Extend Jordan Staal

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06/25/23: The Hurricanes have now officially announced Staal’s extension, confirming the contract’s reported four-year term and $2.9MM average annual value. Hurricanes GM Don Waddell issued the following statement regarding the signing:

Jordan embodies what it means be a Hurricane. His leadership has been an integral part of our success, and the impact he has made on our organization cannot be overstated. We could not be more excited to sign him for four more years.

An aspect worth noting about this deal is its structure. Per PuckPedia, the extension will see Staal owed just a $775k base salary in the final year of the deal. While that number will likely be revised to the new minimum salary under the next collective bargaining agreement, it’s still quite a bit lower than what Staal has earned on a yearly basis throughout his career.

That structure and the four-year term of the deal have led some to speculate that the Hurricanes don’t plan on Staal playing out the full length of the contract, with the forward potentially ending his career before that lower-salary final year kicks in.

Since Staal won’t turn 35 until September, this extension won’t count as a 35+ contract against the cap, making that sort of speculation a bit more plausible.

06/24/23: Carolina Hurricanes fans can take a breath tonight, as they’re getting a key piece of business out of the way before the busiest week of the offseason. The team and captain Jordan Staal are nearing a contract extension, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports Saturday night.

The average annual value of the deal, expected to be four years, will be in the $3MM range, NorthStar Bets’ Chris Johnston says. CapFriendly adds the extension carries a full no-movement clause.

Staal’s extension is far from a surprise. Carolina may have a lot of choices to make when it comes to their depth forwards this offseason, but their captain was an obvious one to bring back with nearly $25MM in cap space this offseason (CapFriendly). He may be turning 35 before next season starts, but Staal was beyond elite in a shutdown role in 2022-23 while adding 17 goals and 34 points in 81 regular-season games.

That being said, it’s quite a commitment for a player set to be 38 when the deal expires. The good news is he doesn’t appear to be in any sort of steady decline, providing a consistent amount of offense over the past five years apart from a 2020-21 spike that saw him record 38 points in just 53 games.

He’ll play a key role on a team looking to load up on forwards this offseason and contend for a Stanley Cup yet again in 2023-24. Staal’s two-way dominance will be a huge advantage lower in the lineup – the three-man unit of Staal, Jordan Martinook and Jesper Fast controlled 70 percent of expected goals (MoneyPuck) when deployed together, a team-high number.

Assuming he finishes out this contract, Staal will become one of the longest-tenured players in franchise history with a 15-year stint. Since being acquired from the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2012, Staal has played 742 games in a Carolina jersey, currently sitting fourth among Hurricanes/Whalers skaters.

Arizona Coyotes Extend Connor Ingram

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June 25th: The Coyotes have officially announced the deal. In regards to the signing, General Manager in Arizona, Bill Armstrong, said, “Connor is a good young goaltender who played well for us last season. He and Karel Vejmelka provided us with a strong goaltending tandem. We look forward to having him back between the pipes.”

June 24th: Set to hit restricted free agency this summer, the Arizona Coyotes have done a bit of work to give them some clarity in net, signing Connor Ingram to a three-year extension. The deal will be a three-year, $5.85MM contract extension, paying Ingram a total of $1.95MM each season in the NHL.

Most importantly with Ingram’s deal, it actually buys out two years of potential unrestricted free agency for the netminder. Already having Karel Vejmelka signed until the 2024-25 season, the Coyotes will likely roll with these two for next year at the very least. Ideally, Arizona would like goaltending prospect Ivan Prosvetov to make the full-time leap to the NHL but must have felt that the young goaltender still needed a bit more seasoning at the minor-league level.

Originally drafted in the third round of the 2016 draft by the Tampa Bay Lightning, Ingram never managed to make the jump to the NHL in southwest Florida. He was traded to the Nashville Predators during the 2018-19 season, spending much of his time with the Milwaukee Admirals of the AHL. Last season, he finally managed to make the jump to the professional league in Nashville, posting a 1-2-0 record in three games, achieving a .879 SV% and a 3.71 GAA.

Before the start of this past season, Ingram was waived by Nashville, being claimed by the Coyotes. Now playing in the net for a statistically worse team, Ingram had the benefit of having much more access to ice time than he previously had. In 27 games for the Coyotes, Ingram went 6-13-8, earning a .907 SV% and a 3.37 GAA, much better numbers than his cup of coffee with the Predators a year prior.

It is most likely that Vejmelka will once again be the starting goaltender in Arizona at the beginning of next season, but Ingram does give the team a reliable backup option. There is absolutely no indication that the Coyotes are planning for contention next year, so Ingram can take this time to boost his stock for his next round of free agency in three years.

Craig Morgan of PHNX Sports was the first to report that the Arizona Coyotes had extended Ingram. 

Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet was the first to report the contract details for Ingram. 

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