Buyout Candidate: Marc-Edouard Vlasic
With free agency nearing, many teams are looking to sort out their salary cap situations before the free-agent market opens on July 13th. One way to free cap space is through buyouts, and with buyout season now upon us, we’re taking a look at players who could potentially see their contracts bought out within this year’s window.
While the San Jose Sharks have been among the most successful franchises in the cap era, recent years have not been kind to them. The Sharks, who fired coach Bob Boughner yesterday, have not made the playoffs since their 2019 run to the Western Conference Final, and this current streak of three consecutive finishes outside of the playoffs is the longest in franchise history.
So, while some have concluded that a rebuild is the right course of action for the Sharks, that doesn’t seem to be the route the team will go on. The Sharks are currently still searching for the franchise’s next general manager, and once their new leader is in place the organization is widely expected to have a mandate from ownership to return the team to the playoffs as quickly as possible.
The Sharks are an older team with many core veteran players on expensive, long-term deals. Erik Karlsson, Logan Couture, Brent Burns, and Tomas Hertl all are under contract for the next two seasons at least at cap hits north of $8MM. The result of the Sharks’ superstar-hunting, big-spending ways under GM Doug Wilson (who was successful by every metric outside of winning a Stanley Cup) is that the team lacks the cap space to make the improvements needed to make a swift return to playoff contention.
Per CapFriendly, the Sharks have just under $6MM in projected cap room for this offseason, and with extensions for Mario Ferraro and Kaapo Kahkonen to consider, as well as an upcoming Timo Meier deal next summer, the Sharks’ new GM won’t be inheriting a rosy cap picture.
One of the possible ways for the Sharks to create more cap space to secure better players is through buyouts. The Sharks are no stranger to buyouts, having just last year bought out goaltender Martin Jones, and could pursue this route of creating cap space once again.
The one player whose name has frequently been mentioned as a buyout candidate this year is defenseman Marc-Edouard Vlasic.
Once a premier shutdown defenseman, Vlasic’s skills have eroded as he’s aged, and the decline of his on-ice value has mirrored the decline in his on-ice role. Vlasic himself has seemingly not been thrilled about his declining usage under Boughner and spoke on it in his end-of-season press conference. After noting that he finished third among defensemen in points and was “more physical” than the year before, Vlasic asked the assembled media to “imagine if [he] played more,” a clear indication that he believes his play is worthy of a greater role than he received in 2021-22.
On one hand, Vlasic is correct to note that his role has declined in recent years. Vlasic used to regularly play 22-23 minutes per game, anchoring the Sharks’ defense and being routinely relied upon in the most high-leverage defensive situations. This year, Vlasic averaged a career-low 15:13 time-on-ice per game, ranking seventh on the team among defensemen with at least 40 games played. Vlasic is also correct that he did rank third on the team in points by a defenseman, although his 14 points in 75 games is certainly not an offensive breakout and still a steep decline from the offensive form he showed earlier in his career when he played in a Pete DeBoer-coached system that prioritized generating offense from the point.
On the other hand, Vlasic is clearly not worth the $7MM cap hit he earns. The work by The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn and Shayna Goldman assigns Vlasic a market value of just $600k, noting a clear negative impact on his team’s offensive play. (subscription link)
Perhaps most damningly, Vlasic is no longer a factor on the Sharks’ penalty kill. Vlasic averaged only 49 seconds of shorthanded ice time per game, which ranked seventh among Sharks defensemen. Vlasic is an extremely accomplished player who means a lot to the Sharks franchise. That much is not arguable. But if he’s a defense-first blueliner who has become a non-factor on the penalty kill and has little to no offensive value, can the Sharks afford to keep him on their books at a $7MM cap hit and realistically be able to return to playoff contention?
That’s the question the Sharks’ next general manager will need to grapple with. For what it’s worth, Vlasic seemed completely unconcerned by the possibility of a buyout, answering with a simple “no” when asked if he was concerned about being bought out this summer. But even if Vlasic does not believe the possibility is likely, the cap benefits would definitely look appealing to any GM planning on making immediate moves in free agency.
Under a Vlasic buyout, the Sharks would save $3.3MM against the cap in 2022-23, $5.5MM in 2023-24, $2.8MM in 2024-25, and $1.8MM in 2025-26, at the cost of a $1.68MM dead cap charge from 2026-27 to 2029-30. If the Sharks are certain that they want to return to the playoffs as early as next season, saving nearly $9MM over the next two seasons could be huge in helping the team secure the necessary upgrades to their roster in order to do so.
If the Sharks’ next coach is intent on utilizing Vlasic in a similar fashion to how Boughner deployed him in 2021-22, then a Vlasic buyout wouldn’t be too disruptive to the Sharks’ ability to construct a defense. So, with the potential to save several million dollars against the cap in the next two years, with moderate savings in the two years after that, the possibility of a Vlasic buyout cannot be ruled out for a Sharks organization desperate to return to the playoffs.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
East Notes: Mikheyev, Chytil, Monahan
A few days ago, we covered reports stating that the Toronto Maple Leafs had made it clear to teams across the league that they would be open to trading the early negotiating rights to Ilya Mikheyev to any interested teams. Now, we have some more clarity on what those interested teams might look like. According to TSN’s Chris Johnston, there look to be many. Johnston reports that “as many as half the teams” in the NHL are expected to hold at least some interest in acquiring Mikheyev this summer, and adds that Mikheyev is looking for a deal “in the $4MM range,” if not higher.
Such a vast level of interest in Mikheyev is not a complete surprise. The speedy, undrafted Russian winger scored 21 goals and 32 points in 53 games this season, bouncing back from an off 2020-21 where he only had seven goals and 17 points in 54 games. While not the largest reason for each team’s success, both the Colorado Avalanche and Tampa Bay Lightning feature premium middle-of-the-lineup players, and it’s likely that the teams interested in him consider him a “premium” middle-sixer. The NHL is a “copycat” league, so it’s very possible that the playoff success of relatively comparable players such as Artturi Lehkonen or Nick Paul has grown Mikheyev’s market. The more teams that enter a bidding war for his services, the more likely Mikheyev is to earn the type of contract the desires. So if anything, Johnston’s reporting is great news for Mikheyev and his camp, and could also be an early sign of the type of players that will be in high demand on July 13th.
Now, for some other notes regarding Eastern Conference teams:
- The New York Rangers could lose both Andrew Copp and Ryan Strome this summer, two top-six players who were important pieces of the team’s run to the Eastern Conference Final. Those losses will likely leave a hole at the Rangers’ second-line center slot, and the Rangers will need to find a replacement this summer. One way the team can find a replacement is in the trade market, and according to The Athletic’s Arthur Staple, that’s something they’re considering. (subscription link) Per Staple, two league sources noted that center Filip Chytil, the hero of the team’s second-round victory over the Carolina Hurricanes, is the “most talked-about” Ranger in GM Chris Drury‘s trade conversations, and that “the Rangers are willing to lose Chytil in order to acquire an older, more established top-six center.” Chytil, a 2017 first-round pick, is a veteran of over 250 NHL games despite being just 22 years old. He had 22 points in 67 games this season and his strong playoff performance could motivate the Rangers to “sell high” on him if they don’t view him as part of their long-term plans.
- One player who could potentially fill the Rangers’ second-line center need is Calgary Flames pivot Sean Monahan. Per Staple, Monahan “has been discussed in trade talks” with the Rangers. Monahan, 27, has seen his career derailed due to injuries as of late, and was placed on long-term injured reserve following hip surgery. If the Rangers believe in Monahan’s ability to re-discover the form that saw him score between 20 and 30 goals for seven straight seasons, then the Rangers could acquire him at an asset cost that would likely be far lower than the cost it would take to acquire a more in-demand center.
Atlantic Notes: Palat, Senators Priorities, Murray
The Tampa Bay Lightning may have fallen just short in their attempt to win a third straight Stanley Cup, but that hasn’t stopped them from doubling down on some of the players that got them there, and they started earlier this week with a seven-year extension for playoff hero Nick Paul. While defenseman Ryan McDonagh could be on the move, it seems as though that move would be motivated by the team’s desire to keep another important playoff performer: Ondrej Palat. Palat is one of the Lightning’s ultimate success stories, a seventh-rounder who developed to the point of being among coach Jon Cooper’s most trusted players. Palat is a pending unrestricted free agent, and GM Julien Brisebois has already made public his desire to sign Palat to an extension.
Earlier this week, The Athletic’s Joe Smith took a look (subscription link) at what a potential Palat extension could look like, and concluded that another team could very well offer Palat a long-term contract worth more than $5MM per year. But, according to Smith, even in the face of those offers “the Lightning are absolutely going to try to keep Palat.” The decision on whether he remains in Tampa “will likely rest in [Palat’s] hands” as he’ll have to decide if he’s willing to take a potentially lower offer in order to remain with the only franchise he’s ever known.
Now, for some other notes regarding teams in the Atlantic Division:
- The Senators want to improve their team for next season, with the goal of potentially competing for a playoff spot in 2022-23. That much is no secret, and Ottawa indicated that would be their team’s direction earlier this year, when they traded a mid-round draft pick in order to acquire a veteran defenseman in Travis Hamonic. But while we know they want to improve their team, what we don’t know is exactly how they’ll go about doing so. According to Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia, the Senators are looking to add a “high-end winger” and a “top-four defenseman” as their main priorities for this offseason. Luckily for the Senators, there are high-end wingers and top-four defensemen on the market this summer, although acquiring them through free agency could prove to be a challenge as Ottawa has not traditionally been among the most desirable markets for free agents. The Senators have been dangling the seventh-overall pick in trade talks, though, so perhaps that pick holds the key to the Senators acquiring the players they desire.
- Perhaps the single greatest factor the Senators have going in their favor as they seek to improve their team is their advantageous cap position. In a league where most teams are walking a salary cap tightrope, the Senators have over $20MM in projected cap space. Per Garrioch, they’d like to grow that number, and one avenue they’re considering is a move for goaltender Matt Murray. Murray is making $6.25MM against the cap for the next two seasons and the Senators already have found their number-one goalie for that time frame in Anton Forsberg. Garrioch reports that the Senators have talked about “packaging” Murray’s contract with the seventh-overall pick in order to clear his cap hit off their books. While Garrioch does note that such a scenario would need to bring the Senators a “strong return” in exchange, one does have to wonder if the cap relief trading Murray would provide could be considered part of a satisfactory “strong return.”
Minor Transactions: 7/2/22
As the signings around the NHL start to pick up with free agency fast approaching, there have been some other minor moves around the hockey world as well. Here is a rundown of some of the recent ones.
- Flames prospect Cole Huckins was traded from Acadie-Bathurst to Sherbrooke in exchange for a second-round pick as the QMJHL trade window opened up on Saturday. The 19-year-old was a third-round pick by Calgary last year (77th overall) and had a dozen goals and 14 assists in 41 games with the Titan this past season while adding four points in eight playoff contests. Huckins has yet to sign his entry-level deal and will need a big season with the Phoenix in 2022-23 to help secure his first contract.
- Pending Red Wings RFA goaltender Filip Larsson is staying in Sweden as Kristianstad of the second-tier Allsvenskan announced that they’ve signed the netminder to a one-year deal. The 23-year-old spent the majority of his three-year, entry-level contract playing overseas as he wound up suiting up just seven times for Detroit’s AHL affiliate in Grand Rapids back in 2019-20. Larsson split this past season between Frederikshavn in Denmark and Almtuna in Sweden.
- Former NHL winger Luke Adam has decided to stay overseas as Straubing of the DEL in Germany announced they’ve signed the 32-year-old. Adam previously played in 90 NHL games over parts of five seasons and his journey in Germany will continue next year as Straubing will be his fifth different team in as many years.
West Notes: DeBrincat, Dickinson, Oilers
If the Blackhawks are going to move Alex DeBrincat this summer, it’s going to take a sizable haul to get him. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman notes in the latest 32 Thoughts podcast (audio link) that Chicago is believed to have recently turned down a package that would have yielded a high first-round pick in next week’s draft, another first-round selection, and a prospect for the 24-year-old but GM Kyle Davidson felt it wasn’t enough. DeBrincat is coming off a 41-goal, 78-point season and has one year left on his current deal with a $6.4MM AAV but will be owed a $9MM qualifying offer next summer which is something that acquiring teams will need to budget around. Meanwhile, with the Blackhawks squarely in a rebuild now, the time might be right to sell high on their star winger and they have justifiably set a high asking price for his services.
Elsewhere out West:
- The Canucks are unlikely to pursue a buyout with center Jason Dickinson this month, notes Thomas Drance of The Athletic (subscription link). Vancouver acquired the 26-year-old last summer with the hope that he could be a quality third-line center, signing him to a three-year deal that carries a $2.65MM cap hit. However, Dickinson managed to put up just five goals and six assists in 62 games this past season, numbers that aren’t close to justifying that cap hit. But since a buyout cost wouldn’t yield considerably higher savings than waiving and demoting him, the Canucks may be better off keeping him around or flipping him for another player that’s similarly underachieving.
- The Oilers have extended the decision deadlines for defenseman Duncan Keith and goalie Mike Smith, reports Daniel Nugent-Bowman of The Athletic (subscription link). Originally, Edmonton was looking for clarity on their futures by July 1st but that has now been pushed to July 10th. At this point, Keith appears to be likely to return although there has been recent speculation that Smith, who played through multiple injuries this past season, could be placed on LTIR for the final year of his contract which would have the Oilers on the lookout for another goalie in the coming weeks.
Blue Jackets Re-Sign Carson Meyer
Columbus has been active in recent days as they look to re-sign their pending restricted free agents. Winger Carson Meyer is the next one to receive a new deal as the Blue Jackets announced that they’ve agreed on a one-year, two-way deal with the 24-year-old. PuckPedia reports (Twitter link) that the contract pays $750K in the NHL, $125K in the AHL, and has a guarantee of $175K.
Meyer made his NHL debut this past season, getting into 13 games with Columbus in April as the team was playing out the stretch. He picked up a goal and two assists along with 27 hits in those appearances while averaging a little more than eight minutes a night on the fourth line. Prior to that, Meyer played in 57 games with AHL Cleveland, tallying 16 goals along with 11 assists.
While it’s possible that Meyer could try to push for a spot on the fourth line in training camp, the likelier scenario is that he returns to the Monsters as he is waiver-exempt through next season. But after a decent showing in the final month of the season, Meyer is someone that could be considered for an early-season recall when injuries arise in Columbus.
Aaron Portzline of The Athletic was the first to report that Meyer was close to re-signing.
Free Agent Focus: Detroit Red Wings
Free agency is now less than two weeks away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up. There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. Next up is a look at the Detroit Red Wings.
Key Restricted Free Agents
F Filip Zadina – Once viewed as a possible top-three pick in the 2018 draft, Zadina’s stock fell a bit back then and it has still fallen since then. His first full NHL season saw him show flashes of the upside that was enough for Detroit to pick him sixth in the draft but there were plenty of concerns about his play away from the puck and his overall consistency. Coming off a platform year of 10 goals and 14 assists, Zadina certainly hasn’t put himself in a territory where he can command a long-term deal, nor should he want one. At this point, what’s clear is that he’ll be receiving a bridge deal. What isn’t as clear is whether it will be the Red Wings giving it to him or another team altogether.
D Jake Walman – With St. Louis, Walman had a very limited role when he was able to get into the lineup but that changed following his trade to Detroit at the deadline. After that, he became a regular on the third pairing, seeing his ATOI jump from under 12 minutes a game to over 17, giving him his first consistent stretch of NHL action and he certainly held his own in that role. Coming off a platform season with 10 points in 51 games and just 82 career appearances under his belt, Walman won’t be able to command much of a raise but he is a year away from UFA eligibility. If GM Steve Yzerman thinks there is still some upside with Walman, a two-year deal that buys an extra year of team control is doable that could see the AAV closer to the $1MM mark after making the minimum the last two seasons.
F Mitchell Stephens – The 25-year-old was brought over from Tampa Bay with the hopes that he’d be able to grab onto a full-time role on the fourth line. However, Stephens wound up missing 55 games with a lower-body injury and while he played in the 27 remaining games, there remain some questions as to whether or not he’s going to be a long-term option for Detroit. He’s owed a qualifying offer of just under $814K and it shouldn’t take much more than that to give him a one-year contract and another opportunity to try to stake his claim to a full-time spot in the lineup.
Other RFAs: G Kaden Fulcher, D Olli Juolevi, D Chase Pearson
Key Unrestricted Free Agents
D Marc Staal – The 35-year-old isn’t the high-end shutdown defender that he was in the prime of his career but he still has some value as a third-pairing player that can kill penalties. Detroit saw that last summer and brought him back to play that exact role in 2021-22 where he did a decent job. It’s possible that the Red Wings keep him around as an insurance policy if they aren’t able to bring in a more impactful veteran on the left side of their back end. If not, Staal should have some suitors on contending teams looking for a proven defender but in that situation, he will likely need to take less than the $2MM he received from the Red Wings this past season.
G Thomas Greiss – In his first year with the Red Wings, Greiss did well with his GAA and SV% basically matching his career averages. In terms of a short-term stopgap, he looked like a good pickup. However, the 36-year-old struggled mightily in 2021-22, posting a 3.66 GAA with a SV% of just .881, both career-worsts. Was it a sign that his best days are behind him or will there be a team or two that thinks in a more stable defensive environment, Greiss could still provide a performance around the league average? It’s possible that there is limited interest this summer but it’s also quite possible that his poor performance has resulted in his 13-year NHL career coming to an end.
D Danny DeKeyser – DeKeyser’s stock has dropped considerably in the last couple of years and he has cleared waivers on multiple occasions. That said, his $5MM AAV made it a near-lock that he was going to pass through unclaimed so there was no risk in going that route. The 32-year-old could still fit on the third pairing for some teams next season at a price tag that’s considerably lower and is more commensurate for that role. However, it would be surprising to see him return to his hometown team.
F Sam Gagner – Gagner is quietly coming off a serviceable season as a depth scorer for the Red Wings, picking up 13 goals and 18 assists in 81 games while playing under 14 minutes a night with 29 of those points coming at even strength. For a bargain price of $850K, he was one of Detroit’s better bargains in 2021-22. Now 32, the 15-year veteran has his limitations but as an affordable depth scorer, Gagner should have a decent market waiting for him in free agency.
Other UFAs: F Riley Barber, F Turner Elson, G Magnus Hellberg, G Calvin Pickard, D Dan Renouf, F Carter Rowney
Projected Cap Space
As far as cap space goes, Detroit has plenty as they have more than $35MM at their disposal. Their restricted free agents won’t take much off of that number which means that Yzerman has the ability to go after the top unrestricted free agents if he wants or if he feels the team led by new head coach Derek Lalonde isn’t ready to push for a playoff spot yet, the Red Wings could be a team to watch in terms of adding some assets for taking on undesirable contracts. There will be several new faces in Hockeytown as a result next season.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Amir Miftakhov Clears Unconditional Waivers
Sunday: Miftakhov has cleared waivers, Friedman reports.
Saturday: Today is the first day that players can be placed on unconditional waivers for the purposes of buying out a contract. There is a player on unconditional waivers today, albeit for another reason, as Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports (Twitter link) that the Lightning have placed goaltender Amir Miftakhov on unconditional waivers for the purpose of terminating his contract.
The 22-year-old was a sixth-round pick of Tampa Bay back in 2020 (186th overall) after some promising performances in the VHL, a second-tier league in Russia. After spending 2020-21 between the KHL and VHL, the Lightning had seen enough to give Miftakhov a three-year, entry-level deal with an eye on trying to develop him as a goalie of the future.
However, things didn’t go well in Miftakhov’s first season in North America. He split his time between AHL Syracuse and ECHL Orlando and while he had a decent showing in five games with the Solar Bears, the same couldn’t be said for how he performed with the Crunch. He posted a save percentage of just .891 along with a GAA of 3.03 in 22 games and was relegated to third-string status in the playoffs behind veteran Maxime Lagace and prospect Hugo Alnefelt. That appears to be enough for the two sides to agree that parting ways is the best approach.
Teams will have until 1 PM CT on Saturday if they want to place a claim on Miftakhov if they believe he’s worthy of some development in the minors. Assuming the goalie clears, he’ll become an unrestricted free agent and at this point, returning to play back home in Russia is a likely scenario. If his deal is terminated, Alnefelt will be the only Tampa Bay goalie signed for next season beyond their NHL tandem of Andrei Vasilevskiy and Brian Elliott.
Central Notes: Forsberg, Leddy, King
Predators winger Filip Forsberg is one of the most prominent pending unrestricted free agents with the opening of the market now less than two weeks away. However, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman relays in the latest 32 Thoughts podcast (audio link) that teams believe there’s a path for the 27-year-old to stay in Nashville on a max-term eight-year deal with an $8.5MM AAV. Such a deal would represent a $2.5MM raise on his last contract, one that would be well-deserved after a 42-goal, 84-point season. Worth noting is that Nashville’s tax situation is a favorable one so if other teams think an AAV of $8.5MM would get a deal done with the Predators, teams that aren’t in an ideal tax environment would need to go considerably higher to match the net money Forsberg would receive.
More from the Central:
- While Nick Leddy isn’t the top-pairing player he once was, NHL.com’s Lou Korac suggests in his latest blog that the blueliner could still command a four or five-year contract on the open market later this month. The 31-year-old picked up 24 points in 75 games between Detroit and St. Louis during the regular season while averaging over 21 minutes a night while chipping in with five points in nine playoff contests. While the Blues would certainly like to keep him around, it’s unlikely they’ll be able to free up the type of money it will cost to sign Leddy to that long of a contract.
- While Derek King is no longer Chicago’s head coach following the hiring of Luke Richardson, GM Kyle Davidson told reporters, including Ben Pope of the Chicago Sun-Times, that the Blackhawks are looking to retain King in a yet-to-be-determined role. It’s possible that King goes back to AHL Rockford which is where he was before he was called on to replace Jeremy Colliton while he also could become an assistant on Richardson’s staff or transition into a role in their front office.
Anthony Duclair Suffers Achilles Injury
July 2: The Panthers have announced that Duclair has undergone successful surgery with an anticipated return of midseason.
June 29: The start of the 2022-23 season isn’t going well for the Florida Panthers. According to Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic and Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet, Panthers forward Anthony Duclair suffered an Achilles tendon injury during offseason training and will likely require surgery. Though Friedman notes that the current timeline is unclear, surgery would mean a lengthy recovery.
In 2018, for instance, Jean-Gabriel Pageau suffered a torn Achilles during the first day of training camp with the Ottawa Senators and was given a six-month recovery timeline. Panthers fans will be happy to know that it took nowhere near that long for him to actually return. Pageau was activated less than four months later and was in the lineup in early January.
Of course, there are other instances that weren’t so successful. Michal Kempny of the Washington Capitals underwent Achilles surgery in October 2020 and ended up missing nearly the entire 2020-21 season.
For Duclair, this is brutal timing given his recent performance. The 26-year-old winger is coming off a 31-goal season with the Panthers–the best of his career–and is finally an important member of a team’s attack. The 2013 third-round pick worked his way through the New York Rangers, Arizona Coyotes, Chicago Blackhawks, Columbus Blue Jackets, and Ottawa Senators before arriving in Sunrise but has found a home with Florida.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images