Senators, Jake Sanderson To Discuss Extension Later This Summer
The Senators took care of one important piece of business earlier this week with the signing of Vladimir Tarasenko to a one-year contract to help fill the void created by the departure of Alex DeBrincat to Detroit. While they’re pretty much capped out, GM Pierre Dorion is hoping to have another big contract in the works as Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch reports that the Sens and defenseman Jake Sanderson are set to sit down for extension discussions later this summer.
The 21-year-old had an impressive rookie season in 2022-23, collecting 32 points for Ottawa in 77 games while logging nearly 22 minutes a night of ice time. The fifth-overall pick in 2020, Sanderson is projected to be a cornerstone piece for the Sens on their back end so it’s not surprising that the team wants to sit down and talk about a new deal early.
But it will be tricky to find a number that both sides are happy with considering that Sanderson’s NHL experience is limited to just those 77 games; that’s not a large sample size to work with. There will be a lot of projecting with a long-term contract which makes it more difficult to lock down a year before it expires.
If the two sides look at a long-term agreement, they have a reasonable in-house comparable in Thomas Chabot, a player who makes the type of impact now that they believe Sanderson can down the road. His eight-year deal carries an AAV of $8MM; from a cap percentage standpoint, that agreement is worth $8.2MM per season today. Miro Heiskanen’s $8.45MM AAV in Dallas would likely be the high point of any discussions.
Notably, Sanderson will have five years of club control remaining next summer; while he burned the first year of his entry-level deal in 2021-22, that doesn’t count as a year of service time toward UFA eligibility. Assuming that they’d want to add at least a couple of years of control on a long-term deal, that basically takes a five-year or six-year agreement off the table.
While Ottawa has had the reputation of not being a high-spending team, that isn’t really the case anymore. Per CapFriendly, they already have $65.77MM in commitments for 2024-25 to just 13 players and while there is an expectation of a bigger cap increase next summer than the $1MM it has been lately, they’re still looking at needing to sign seven to ten players with around $20MM in room to work with. A big-ticket long-term deal with Sanderson will start to put the squeeze on.
To that end, perhaps the two sides might ultimately be inclined to look toward a bridge deal that buys the two sides more evaluation time and the Sens a bit more short-term flexibility. But if that’s the direction one or both sides are leaning, it’s unlikely that an agreement will be reached this summer. In that case, one extra year of results would be quite useful for both Ottawa and Sanderson.
With Tarasenko in the fold, Dorion can check off one more item from his to-do list. Sooner than later it seems, he’ll start working on the next item to see if an early agreement can be reached with one of his top blueliners.
Atlantic Notes: Tkachuk, Veleno, Chiasson
In a recent appearance on Sportsnet 590 (audio link), Panthers winger Matthew Tkachuk indicated that he is almost back to normal as he works his way back from a fractured sternum sustained during the playoffs. At this point, he’s expected to be fully ready for training camp. Tkachuk had a dominant first season in Florida, collecting 40 goals and 69 assists in 79 games, good for seventh in NHL scoring. He followed that up with 24 points in 20 playoff contests, leading all Eastern Conference players in that department.
More from the Atlantic:
- One of the items still on Detroit’s to-do list this summer is re-signing center Joe Veleno. Max Bultman of The Athletic suggests (subscription link) that Ducks middleman Isac Lundestrom, a fellow 2018 first-rounder might be a good comparable. Last summer, Lundestrom inked a two-year, $3.6MM deal coming off a similar platform year and fairly close career numbers. Veleno is coming off a nine-goal, 20-point campaign so $1.8MM might be a bit on the high side but a bridge deal in that range would make sense for both sides.
- Still with Detroit, MLive’s Ansar Khan notes that the Red Wings expressed interest in re-signing Alex Chiasson at the beginning of free agency but were only offering a two-way deal at that time. The 32-year-old spent a good portion of last season on a tryout deal with AHL Grand Rapids and was productive, notching 20 points in 29 games. That got his contract converted to an NHL agreement down the stretch where he picked up six goals and three assists in 20 contests. Chiasson, a veteran of 651 NHL games, is no stranger to tryout routes and he may have to go that away again in the fall if he wants a shot at securing a one-way NHL agreement.
Finding A Match For A John Gibson Trade
There has been trade speculation around Ducks goaltender John Gibson for several years now with that only intensifying following a trade request that was reported back in early June. His agency denied a report earlier this month which suggested he had informed the club he wouldn’t play for them again but it’s still believed he wouldn’t mind a change of scenery. However, most of the annual goalie shuffle is now complete and the veteran remains with Anaheim, at least for the time being.
The 29-year-old had posted a 3.99 GAA last season, leading the league in goals allowed (200) and losses (31) while putting up a .899 SV%. Over the last four seasons, Gibson’s best save percentage has been .904 after putting up four straight campaigns of .917 or better so it’s not as if this was a one-time dip. Of course, that also coincides with Anaheim entering a rebuild so at least some of the decline in performance could be attributed to that. It’s possible that in a better situation, he could rebound.
That said, it won’t be a cheap gamble to make. Gibson has four years left on his contract with a $6.4MM AAV. That will be difficult for most teams to fit in now; fewer than ten teams in the league have that much cap space and several of those are of the rebuilding variety. On top of that, the Ducks aren’t going to give their starter away either; there will be a fairly sizable price to pay in terms of assets to get his services. What teams might those be? Let’s look at some possible options, some admittedly more speculative than others.
New Jersey
The Devils have a tandem of Vitek Vanecek and Akira Schmid which, on the surface, isn’t all that bad. Vanecek had a career-low 2.45 GAA with a career-high .911 SV% last season in 52 games, perfectly reasonable numbers for a starter. Schmid, meanwhile, was even better in limited duty and even took over as the starter at one point in the playoffs.
That last point is why they’re on this list though. When it mattered most, Vanecek struggled and with a core group that’s clearly built to win now, a possible upgrade between the pipes could be the missing piece to the puzzle. A package that includes Vanecek would offset Gibson’s net added cost to no more than $3MM which would be affordable within their cap space, assuming they fill out their roster with low-salaried options. More importantly, he’d cost less moving forward on the cap than Connor Hellebuyck based on his asking price.
Winnipeg
While the Jets have moved out Pierre-Luc Dubois and bought out Blake Wheeler, that shouldn’t be construed as them heading for a rebuild. Look no further than the return they received for Dubois – one that had multiple roster pieces as they look to stay in the playoff mix. Moving Hellebuyck would open up a big hole to fill in goal and Gibson would be a logical one to turn to, assuming either Winnipeg isn’t on his 10-team no-trade list or he’d be willing to waive to go there.
One thing the Jets don’t have in this scenario is another netminder of some significance to flip the other way so their return would likely have to be more futures-based. Considering where Anaheim is in their rebuild cycle, that might even be preferable on their end. The Hellebuyck domino has to fall first for this to be an option though.
Buffalo
The Sabres have been speculatively linked to a veteran goaltender for a few months now. Craig Anderson has called it a career and Eric Comrie isn’t the solution as the starter either. Meanwhile, the team has high hopes for Devon Levi and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen but the pair have 54 career NHL appearances between them. There seems to be an expectation of Buffalo making a real playoff push in 2023-24 after really making it interesting in April before just coming up short so while there is an element of upside if Levi and Luukkonen do well, there is certainly some risk as well if they struggle.
Gibson could be a way of hedging that risk, giving Levi a veteran partner to work with and allow him to try to ease his way into a longer-term starting role. Luukkonen, meanwhile, could be an intriguing part of a swap for Anaheim to start a young tandem of their own alongside Lukas Dostal. Buffalo has enough cap space to take on Gibson’s contract outright but with pricey extensions a year off for Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power, either seeking some retention or sending some sort of salary offset would be beneficial.
Edmonton
After signing Jack Campbell last summer with the hopes of finally finding themselves a legitimate starting goaltender, they find themselves in a familiar spot – still looking for that goalie. Campbell had his moments last season as did Stuart Skinner but neither are in a spot where they can be counted on as a sure-fire starter when it matters most. For a franchise that has two of the top players in the league in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, their contention window is now. They improved the defense at the deadline so finally landing that reliable starter could be the final piece of the puzzle.
Cap space is at a premium for Edmonton, however, with most of their remaining cap room heading to RFAs Ryan McLeod and Evan Bouchard. To make a move work, they’d need to match money. That would mean Campbell and his $5MM AAV would almost certainly need to be part of the swap. The Oilers could ask Anaheim to retain enough on Gibson’s deal to get him down to that same $5MM price point although that will only increase the acquisition price. Fit-wise, Gibson would certainly be an intriguing addition but it would take some creativity to make it work.
Los Angeles
If you look at the Kings’ roster right now, there is one big question mark and that’s between the pipes. Pheonix Copley has been more of a third-stringer than a legitimate NHL option for most of his career and veteran Cam Talbot is coming off an injury-plagued campaign that saw him struggle when he was in the lineup. David Rittich is also in the mix but his track record isn’t the greatest either. Going cheap at that position has certainly given Los Angeles the flexibility to bolster their lineup but it’s not without its risks either.
To get Gibson (assuming he’s open to going to a long-term division rival), they’d be in a situation where they’d need to match money like Edmonton. A veteran on an expiring contract like Viktor Arvidsson or Matt Roy could help on that front while someone like Copley would need to be involved as well. But none of those players will be of much interest to the Ducks so they would need to find a futures-based package to add to those players to include to make it worth Anaheim’s while.
Columbus
This one is admittedly a bit off the board but things did not go well in goal for the Blue Jackets last season as Elvis Merzlikins certainly struggled which played a big role in Columbus plummeting down the standings. Their offseason activity so far has been geared toward shoring up the back end in the hopes that upgrades there will also help in goal and Mike Babcock is certainly not a rebuilding type of coach. There’s an internal expectation for big improvement so it wouldn’t be shocking to see them at least kick the tires.
Merzlikins is signed for four more years like Gibson is at $1MM less so if Anaheim was open to taking him back in a swap, the Blue Jackets can fit Gibson onto the books. They have a strong prospect pool that they could deal from, giving them an edge over some other teams who don’t have as deep of a group to work with when it comes to building a futures-based package.
Of course, it’s still quite possible that Gibson remains with the Ducks at the start of 2023-24 and they revisit the possibility of a trade in-season or next summer when teams will have more cap flexibility at their disposal. But if there is still mutual motivation to find a deal that works for both sides, there are at least a few teams that could be an option for the veteran netminder.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Cap information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Assessing Ottawa’s Cap-Cutting Options
The signing of Vladimir Tarasenko earlier this week certainly is a boost to an Ottawa attack that had taken a step backward following the trade of Alex DeBrincat earlier this month. But the move also puts them very close to the salary cap with the team still needing to re-sign Shane Pinto and leave themselves some wiggle room for in-season movement. They have less than $1MM to do so, per CapFriendly, with Pinto’s contract almost certain to cost more than the space they have coming off a 20-goal season.
As a result, GM Pierre Dorion is now faced with trying to clear up money in a market where cap space is hard to come by and there aren’t many teams that appear to be willing to take money on at this point.
Further complicating things is that Ottawa doesn’t exactly have a long list of contracts to realistically move. It’s highly unlikely that they would move any of their core pieces after moving Tarasenko and they already have five other projected roster players that are making under $1MM that really aren’t going to move the needle in terms of creating cap room when you consider that they’ll need to add someone else on the roster to fill their spot.
As a result, they only have a handful of players that stand out as potential trade candidates. They all project to be regulars but it’s plausible that their role could be filled either internally by someone cheaper or by pursuing someone still in the free agent market. Here is an overview of those potential trade options:
Erik Brannstrom – Originally acquired as the headline piece of the Mark Stone trade, the 23-year-old hasn’t exactly been able to live up to the hype. However, Brannstrom has shown slow but steady improvement and is coming off an 18-point season despite seeing his playing time dip by over four minutes per night. The two sides were able to reach a one-year, $2MM deal early in July that basically works as a second bridge contract and buys a little more time.
However, with Thomas Chabot and Jakob Chychrun in the fold, there isn’t really much of an opportunity for the blueliner to move up the depth chart on the left side. Where he sits now – as a clear third-pairing option – is more or less his ceiling in Ottawa for the foreseeable future. Brannstrom is young enough that he could be appealing to even a rebuilding team and the Sens could look to back-fill his spot with someone like Tyler Kleven who held his own down the stretch last season. They also may want to open a roster spot for 2019 first-round Lassi Thomson who, although he is a right-shot option, is now waiver-eligible.
Anton Forsberg – With Ottawa adding Joonas Korpisalo on a five-year contract at the beginning of the month, it’s clear that the Sens envision him as the starter of both the present and the foreseeable future. Forsberg, who had a shot at securing that role for himself, is coming off a down season, one that saw him tear his MCLs in both knees which now has him squarely in the number two role.
With a cap hit of $2.75MM, the 30-year-old is right in that mid-tier second-string territory. It’s not that his contract is well above market value or anything but it’s conceivable that Dorion could look to move Forsberg and bring in a one-year veteran (Jaroslav Halak and Martin Jones are among the remaining unsigned UFAs) at a cheaper rate, using the savings on Pinto in the process. However, it’s an idea that makes sense in theory but is going to be harder to execute as at this point, there aren’t many teams left with an opening between the pipes.
Mathieu Joseph – After being acquired in 2022, Joseph lit up the scoresheet, notching four goals and eight assists in 11 games, helping him earn a four-year deal for his troubles. Unfortunately for both sides, Joseph had fewer goals last season (three) despite suiting up 56 times. That’s not good bang for their buck on a deal that carries a $2.95MM cap hit. On the surface, he’s the most logical player to try to move.
That being said, in this marketplace, that’s not going to be a contract that will be easy to move with both the AAV and the term being a concern relative to others still available on the open market. One possible outcome could be the Sens waiving Joseph and if he clears, they’d free up $1.15MM in cap room. They’d need another player to take his place on the roster, however, so the net savings would be $375K or less. Still, that would give them a little more wiggle room to work with.
Dominik Kubalik – Kubalik was part of the DeBrincat trade earlier this month but with Tarasenko now on the roster, the 27-year-old may find himself in a bottom-six role, one he might not be the best suited for. He’s coming off a nice bounce-back year with Detroit, notching 20 goals and 25 assists in 81 games although he was quiet after the bye week, picking up just 11 points in 33 contests.
Kubalik has one year left on his contract at $2.5MM which might be movable in this cap environment based on the season he had and the short-term commitment. Again, some of the savings here would have to be offset by a replacement player on the roster but they could net enough room to re-sign Pinto and carry a 12th forward.
Each of these players has some value but it has been difficult for teams this summer to both move money and extract fair market value for a player. It’s likely that Dorion will run into the same situation here with these players. With more than two months before next season gets underway, he’ll have some time to try to find the right trade but if he hasn’t started calling teams about clearing money already, he’ll almost certainly be doing so soon.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Poll: Which Non-Playoff Team Will Make The Playoffs This Year?
From the 2021-22 season to the 2022-23 NHL campaign, the league saw two teams from the Eastern Conference (New Jersey Devils and New York Islanders), and three teams from the Western Conference (Seattle Kraken, Vegas Golden Knights, and Winnipeg Jets) make the playoffs after having missed the year prior. With another offseason almost behind us, it is time to start thinking about which teams will make the jump this upcoming year.
Western Conference Contenders
Nashville Predators – In what many considered to be a disappointing campaign in 2022-23, the Predators still only missed the playoffs by a hair, sitting three points back of the Jets. This offseason, the team filled out the roster with some aggressive moves, adding Ryan O’Reilly, Luke Schenn, and Gustav Nyquist into the mix. The Central Division is top-heavy with the Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars likely leading the charge, but the Predators should have some room to sneak their way into the playoffs.
Calgary Flames – The success of the first half of the year for the Flames should largely dictate what this team looks like at the season’s end. If Calgary is unable to come to terms on extensions with Mikael Backlund, Elias Lindholm, and seemingly their entire defensive core, the Flames will likely be one of the biggest sellers at next year’s trade deadline if they are unable to string together some wins. However, if the team plays well, Calgary would only be a couple of rental pieces away from being a legitimate playoff candidate.
St.Louis Blues – A very similar team to the Predators in regards to their circumstances, the Blues could be a sneaky playoff candidate coming out of the Western Conference in the upcoming season. Bringing back a largely similar roster to the one they finished last year with, St.Louis has good young talent, very intriguing project players, and has also added Kevin Hayes to their forward core. Again, playing in a division with only two surefire bets for the playoffs, the Blues could make some noise.
Eastern Conference Contenders
Buffalo Sabres – For the first time in a long time, the last week of the season mattered for Buffalo. Going down to the wire with the Florida Panthers, the Sabres only finished one point outside the top wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference. They finished third in the league last year in Goals For but finished a dismal 26th in Goals Against. Their goaltending could become an issue if Devon Levi does not live up to the hype, but adding defensemen such as Connor Clifton and Erik Johnson should help mask some weaknesses between the pipes.
Ottawa Senators – After acquiring Alex DeBrincat at last year’s draft, as well as signing Claude Giroux in the offseason, the Senators seemed poised to return to the playoffs last season. Unfortunately, due to some untimely injuries and poor goaltending performance, Ottawa once again found themselves outside looking in. The team is hoping to have found their answer in the net, signing goaltender Joonas Korpisalo for the next five seasons. The team will also benefit from a full year of defenseman Jakob Chychrun, and now having the privilege of employing Vladimir Tarasenko in the team’s top six could get them back into the mix.
Detroit Red Wings – Copying last offseason’s method, the Red Wings were once again one of the more active teams in free agency this year. Adding players like J.T. Compher, Justin Holl, and James Reimer, Detroit is once again trying to fill holes through their ample cap space. Not feeling they had done enough, the team went out and made a trade with the Senators to bring DeBrincat to Motor City. After some impressive drafts over the last four seasons, the sentiment around the league is that the Red Wings are on the cusp of returning to the Stanley Cup Finals. Unfortunately for them, and the two other Eastern teams mentioned, they all find themselves in arguably the toughest division in the game.
Now, we leave it to you. Which team do you think will make it back to the postseason for the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs? Will it be one of the teams mentioned above or a team completely off anybody’s radar?
Ilya Mikheyev To Be Ready For Start Of Season
Rick Dhaliwal of The Athletic reported earlier today that forward Ilya Mikheyev has begun skating for the first time since late January, and that Mikheyev’s agent fully expects him to be ready to start the 2023-24 campaign. Mikheyev had undergone knee surgery from an injury sustained in last year’s preseason, and the Vancouver Canucks January 27th game against the Columbus Blue Jackets was scheduled to be Mikheyev’s last of the season.
The reason that Mikheyev’s expected return is so significant, is that Vancouver is beginning to have a roster issue. As of now, according to CapFriendly, the Canucks currently have 13 forwards on their current roster, with NHL-ready talents such as Aidan McDonough and Vasily Podkolzin rostered in the minor leagues. With Mikheyev’s imminent return to the team, Vancouver would now have 16 forwards capable of receiving minutes in the professional league.
Not only is Mikheyev expected to return, but there is also the strong possibility of forward Tanner Pearson returning by the start of training camp. In July, the General Manager of the Canucks, Patrik Allvin, spoke on Pearson’s status saying, “The indication I got from his agent and from our medical staff is that the hand is healed, and Tanner is working really hard to to be the in his best shape and participate in training camp“.
Vancouver will have a bit of flexibility when it comes to filling out their forward core, as players such as Nils Aman, Phillip Di Giuseppe, and Sheldon Dries all have two-way contracts, meaning they can be sent to the AHL without hitting the waiver wire. The more unfortunate news for the Canucks, is the unenviable situation of their salary cap. If Pearson does indeed come off LTIR, Vancouver will still be $1.77MM over the cap with only Tucker Poolman left on LTIR.
If Pearson is not ready to go by the start of the season, the Canucks will be able to keep him on LTIR and have no issue staying cap compliant throughout the season. Nevertheless, with so many NHL quality forwards in their system, it would seem prudent for Vancouver to thin out their forward core in some fashion, and address another area of need for the team.
Bruins Looking To “Bolster” Center Position
Often, periods of sustained success lead to a quick and rough-and-tumble downfall in today’s NHL. That chain of events appears to be set in motion with the Boston Bruins, who are now facing some significant forward depth issues after a tight salary cap crunch and the retirement of captain Patrice Bergeron earlier this week. With Bergeron and longtime teammate David Krejci not expected to return as their two top pivots down the middle, team president Cam Neely told reporters, including Joe Haggerty, today that the team is doing “whatever we can to bolster that position.”
If Neely isn’t bluffing, expect that to lead to pretty immediate trade speculation regarding the Bruins and some of the top centers potentially available on the trade market. They still have some runway this offseason to make a move before the 2023-24 campaign starts, although a move could always come closer to next year’s trade deadline if the team feels they can be competitive enough to at least stay in the playoff race until that point.
Haggerty mentioned two candidates who, by public consensus, should make the most sense – Elias Lindholm of the Calgary Flames and Mark Scheifele of the Winnipeg Jets. Both have loads of experience shouldering first-line minutes and are pending UFAs next summer, with the status of contract extensions up in the air. If you’re a Bruins fan, don’t hold your breath, though – any trade will be incredibly tough to pull off with limited financial maneuverability and a lack of top-flight assets in the cupboard.
That being said, when a team official says all avenues are being exhausted, it’s fair to speculate about a deal. The Bruins do have a couple of pieces capable of top-six minutes in Pavel Zacha and Charlie Coyle, but more is needed for a team no longer stacked with depth scoring on the wings and still having playoff aspirations. Lindholm immediately jumps out as a better fit with Boston than Scheifele, if for no other reason than his lower cap hit. Locked in at just $4.85MM next year, a move centered around someone like defenseman Matt Grzelcyk could be palatable for the B’s if Calgary obliges – the Flames may be looking for someone to replace pending UFA defenseman Noah Hanifin if they trade him as well.
Not only that, he’s a much better direct stylistic replacement for Bergeron than Scheifele. No one will come close to Bergeron’s two-way dominance (and calling him dominating may be an understatement), but Lindholm has garnered significant Selke consideration in the past two seasons and has posted better point production than Bergeron in the past few seasons.
Scheifele may have a slightly higher offensive ceiling with a longer history of point-per-game seasons, but he’d be harder to fit in at a $6.125MM cap hit. Boston doesn’t exactly have the assets to spare to convince a team (or third party) to retain salary in a deal. While incredibly skilled, Scheifele also consistently ranks near the bottom of the league in defensive impacts. He’d be a fine stopgap and a significant upgrade on their current options, but if the Bruins have a choice between the two candidates mentioned, Scheifele will likely be their second pick.
Other than those two, the list of centers available on the trade market that would be significant upgrades over their current options is quite slim, at least among pending 2024 UFAs. There’s also another Flame who could be available on the market in Mikael Backlund, but he’s not quite viewed as a bonafide number-one center despite his elite defensive capabilities.
Arbitration Breakdown: Jack McBain
Just a few arbitration cases remain, as the last day of hearings is slated for August 4. One player who will learn his financial fate before then is Arizona Coyotes forward Jack McBain, whose hearing is slated for Sunday along with Boston Bruins netminder Jeremy Swayman. The two sides have until the start of the hearing to reach an agreement, although PHNX Sports’ Craig Morgan reported earlier this month the two sides weren’t close to a deal.
Filings
Team: $1.2MM cap hit (two years)
Player: $2.25MM cap hit (one year)
Midpoint: $1.725MM cap hit
(via Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman)
The Numbers
Despite being just 23 years old, this isn’t the first time McBain’s been in some contract turmoil with an NHL team. Drafted by the Minnesota Wild in the third round of the 2018 NHL Draft, the team was forced to trade his signing rights after a strong senior season at Boston College after McBain informed them he wouldn’t sign. The Coyotes picked him up at the end of last season via trade and immediately signed him to an entry-level contract, providing McBain with a clearer path to NHL ice than in Minnesota.
The decision to sign with Arizona proved fruitful for McBain out of the gate, who played in all 82 games for the Coyotes in his first full NHL season. While he played bottom-six minutes and didn’t post strong advanced numbers, he had some promising production on the scoresheet with 12 goals, 14 assists and 26 points. He did, however, get eaten alive in the faceoff dot, posting just a 44% win rate. That’s not uncommon for a rookie center, however.
The point totals are solid when you consider his most common linemates were enforcer Liam O’Brien and bottom-six grinder Christian Fischer, not exactly players who have had sustained offensive success at the NHL level. Consider every single one of McBain’s points came at even strength, and he has a strong case to see a bump in minutes next season. After the team added Alexander Kerfoot, Jason Zucker and Nick Bjugstad in free agency and Logan Cooley via entry-level contract, however, McBain could reprise a fourth-line role in 2023-24.
It’s likely why the Coyotes have gone with a rather low filing on a two-year deal, especially considering some of his advanced numbers suggest a sophomore slump may be in the cards. However, there is still a lot to like about McBain as a player, even if many of those positives still revolve around his upside. Projected as a two-way talent, the Coyotes will rely on him to leverage his 6-foot-3, 201-pound frame more often to make plays on both sides of the puck. That’s not to say he shied away from physicality – his 64 penalty minutes ranked third on the team behind O’Brien and defenseman Josh Brown. Still, the Coyotes remain wary of sinking too much into a player that may not see more than a 4C role as their forward group fills out.
2022-23 Stats: 82 GP, 12-14-26, -8, 64 PIMs, 85 shots, 13:59 ATOI, 40.1 CF%, 44.0 FOW%
Career Stats: 92 GP, 14-15-29, -14, 70 PIMs, 98 shots, 14:00 ATOI, 40.3 CF%, 42.9 FOW%
Potential Comparables
Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used. The contracts below fit within those parameters. Player salaries also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides of McBain’s negotiation.
Barrett Hayton (Arizona Coyotes) – If you’re trying to find a player with similar age and production to McBain at this point in time, you don’t need to look very far. Hayton signed a two-year, $1.775MM deal with the Coyotes late last summer after failing to post top-six caliber numbers throughout three seasons and 94 games in the desert. While McBain doesn’t carry the same potential as Hayton (who did have a nice campaign in 2022-23) and is a few years older, it does warrant consideration and will likely be used in-house as a comparable during the arbitration hearing. The offensive production at the time of signing is similar, and it’s a deal quite close to the midpoint of the two filings.
Isac Lundeström (Anaheim Ducks) – This one is likely a better fit for McBain in terms of age and potential, and they’re both projected to be relied upon as defensively responsible threats down the middle long term. An arbitrator awarded Lundeström a two-year deal worth $1.8MM per season last summer, also making this a slightly better direct arbitration comparable. At the time of signing, Lundeström had slightly more NHL experience at 151 games played but produced at a similar offensive clip, posting 22 goals and 44 points in that span. Both players have yet to hit their defensive potential.
Projection
The gap between the two filings isn’t terribly wide at just over $1MM in difference, nor will an arbitrator decision be a significant factor in the team’s salary cap situation. It’s likely to be one of the least consequential cases to be decided via arbitration this summer, but that doesn’t mean it’s not worth discussion.
The comparables outlined and scoring numbers produced by McBain generate a strong argument for an arbitrator to side slightly north of the $1.725MM midpoint, but not by much. It is likely, however, that the arbitrator award will be a two-year deal based on McBain’s best comparables. Look for a two-year award close to, but not north of, the $2MM mark when the decision gets announced on Tuesday.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Vladimir Tarasenko Had Offers From Hurricanes, Sharks
2:40 p.m.: Strickland has modified his initial report, now claiming the Hurricanes’ highest offer to Tarasenko was under $4MM on a one-year deal. The Athletic’s Jeremy Rutherford also reported late last night that the Florida Panthers had submitted an offer for Tarasenko, which Strickland mentioned likely wasn’t a “competitive offer.”
1:50 p.m.: While star sniper Vladimir Tarasenko did find a home in free agency, it was far from a smooth process. Before signing a one-year, $5MM contract with the Ottawa Senators Thursday night, the 2019 Stanley Cup champion changed his representation early in July after not landing a deal when the UFA market opened on July 1. Shortly before that, multiple reports suggested Tarasenko was close to reaching a pact with the Carolina Hurricanes. Evidently, it didn’t come to fruition.
Despite his goal-scoring pedigree, the lack of widespread interest in Tarasenko made sense. He’s still incredibly skilled, but his ability to drive play is diminishing as he enters his 30s. He’s also had two major shoulder injuries in the past four years. His goal-scoring production also trailed off significantly last season, failing to score 20 goals in a full season for the first time in his career. It appears the Hurricanes, Sens, and San Jose Sharks all made firm contract offers to Tarasenko during his free agency period, though, as Andy Strickland of Bally Sports Midwest reports today.
The Hurricanes and Sharks both made one-year pitches to Tarasenko at $5.25MM and $6MM respectively, Strickland said. Ottawa had also pitched a longer-term offer to Tarasenko at the beginning of free agency, coming in at four years and $22MM (a $5.5MM average annual value). With over $60MM in estimated career earnings to date, per CapFriendly, it’s understandable why Tarasenko would hesitate to commit long-term to a team that’s failed to exit their rebuild stage in earnest.
However, it appears Tarasenko also lost money on a short-term agreement by waiting to sign with the Sens. He’s at a stage in his career where winning is the highest priority, so the basement-dwelling Sharks were likely never in consideration unless they made a truly extravagant offer. He did lose out on $250K by not signing with the Canes, though, a mistake likely caused by waiting out for a better deal. It’s fair to assume Carolina’s offer to Tarasenko was made before they signed defenseman Anthony DeAngelo to a one-year, $1.675MM contract, using up most of their remaining cap space in the process.
In not signing with Carolina, Tarasenko arguably lost out on the best marriage of finances and team competitiveness. There are still many moving parts, including trade rumors surrounding their pending UFA defenseman Brett Pesce and San Jose Sharks star defender Erik Karlsson. Still, the team remains among the favorites to hoist the Stanley Cup in 2024, thanks to a strong returning core and a pair of major UFA pickups in Dmitry Orlov and Michael Bunting.
That’s not to say Ottawa is a bad final fit for the Russian winger. The team does still have playoff aspirations for next season, and a strong rebound campaign from Tarasenko could certainly help lift them to their first postseason appearance since 2017. Even if the injury bug strikes the Sens again or they fall out of playoff contention, a strong individual campaign from Tarasenko alongside a star-studded top-six that includes Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stützle, Joshua Norris, and Claude Giroux could earn him a more lucrative contract next offseason on a contending team. It’s an option made more palatable for Tarasenko by a relatively sharp expected rise in the salary cap’s Upper Limit compared to recent seasons.
Gabriel Carlsson Signs In Sweden
SHL club Växjö Lakers HC released a statement today confirming the earlier-reported signing of left-shot defenseman Gabriel Carlsson to a three-year contract. The former Columbus Blue Jackets and Washington Capitals defenseman signs in his home country of Sweden three days before SHL training camps begin on July 31.
A first-round draft choice of the Blue Jackets in 2015, the 26-year-old Carlsson joined the Capitals organization on a one-year, two-way deal last offseason after Columbus didn’t issue him a qualifying offer to retain his signing rights as an RFA. In hindsight, Carlsson likely received a little more hype than was warranted by his prospect status – Columbus drafted him as a shutdown defender, but registering just seven assists in 39 top-league Swedish junior games during his draft year didn’t inspire much confidence in terms of NHL projectability. Unfortunately, the concerns about Carlsson reaching his ceiling as a premiere defensive specialist turned out to be true, and he appeared in just 75 NHL contests for Columbus over parts of six seasons before the team cut him loose.
A last-ditch effort to get a full-time NHL job in Washington didn’t work out for Carlsson, either. He played just six games for the Capitals, his lowest total since 2019-20, recording two assists and a -1 rating. The season wasn’t a complete loss for Carlsson, however, as he played a top-pairing shutdown role for the AHL’s Hershey Bears and won his first professional championship in the process. Despite the Calder Cup win, his postseason play wasn’t as impressive as his regular-season performance, as he notched just two assists in 20 games and attached a -1 rating.
With that, Carlsson hit the UFA market thanks to the lack of a qualifying offer for a second straight season, obviously a fairly demoralizing experience. He’ll now participate in SHL play for the first time since 2016-17, when he posted two goals and two assists for four points and a +8 rating in 40 games for Linköping HC as a 19-year-old.
A three-year deal keeps Carlsson in Sweden through the 2025-26 season and could very well end his days of North American pro hockey. The towering 6-foot-5, 203-pound defenseman will look to help guide Växjö to their third SHL championship in four seasons after they won the title in 2021 and 2023. He joins a team ripe with former and future NHLers, including forward Tobias Rieder, defenseman Joel Persson, and high-end Buffalo Sabres center prospect Noah Östlund.