Examining An Upcoming Winnipeg Jets Roster Crunch
Despite seeing some high-profile players depart their franchise this offseason, including former captain Blake Wheeler and second-line center Pierre-Luc Dubois, the Winnipeg Jets have every intention of returning to the playoffs in 2023-24.
Although netminder Connor Hellebuyck‘s name has appeared in trade rumors this summer, he currently appears more likely than not to begin the season in Winnipeg, meaning head coach Rick Bowness and his staff will have an elite goaltender behind them as they begin another contention-oriented season.
One area the Jets may still have to resolve this offseason is their defense. As things currently stand, the Jets not only have a point-per-game blueliner in Josh Morrissey leading their group, they also boast some impressive depth. The Jets have ten defensemen under legitimate consideration for an NHL job in the fall, but are likely to only be able to staff seven or eight on their 23-man active roster.
This isn’t a situation for some of the Jets’ defensemen to worry about. Morrissey’s spot at the top of their lineup, for example, is assured. Seeing as they each make nearly $6MM annually on their contracts, Nate Schmidt and Neal Pionk are unlikely to go anywhere given how hard it is to move money in today’s flat-cap environment.
The two 2024 unrestricted free agents, veterans Brenden Dillon and Dylan DeMelo, are each possible candidates to be moved in theory, but in reality are likely staying put.
Each played an important role in the Jets’ 2022-23 success and it’s likely that if the Jets had designs on trading one of those two veterans the deal would have been completed already.
That makes five slots on the roster already spoken for, leaving two or three roster spots left to be claimed.
In contention for those spots is 24-year-old Dylan Samberg, who broke into the NHL and played 63 games last season, six-foot-seven 2016 first-round pick Logan Stanley, AHL star Declan Chisholm, veteran Kyle Capobianco, and 2019 first-rounder Ville Heinola. At the outset, Samberg looks to be the overwhelming favorite to claim the sixth and final spot in Bowness’ opening-night lineup.
The Jets invested a second-round pick to draft Samberg in 2017 and he has developed at a steady rate since that point. He played three seasons of college hockey at the University of Minnesota-Duluth before turning pro in 2020-21.
He spent his rookie pro season as an AHL regular, the next year on the NHL/AHL bubble, and finally last season fully on the NHL roster. Samberg played as a penalty-killing specialist number-six defenseman last season, averaging just 14:55 TOI per game overall but 1:59 on the penalty kill, third-most among Jets blueliners.
With Samberg playing quite a bit short-handed the Jets had a top-ten penalty kill league-wide, so it stands to reason that the Jets would be interested in Samberg maintaining his regular role there in order to help ensure similar short-handed success next season. That leaves Heinola, Stanley, Capobianco, and Chisholm battling in training camp for one or two spots as a press box regular in Winnipeg.
That’s a position Capobianco, 25, occupied for all of last season. He only played in 14 games for Winnipeg but didn’t see a single minute in the AHL. He spent most of the season a healthy scratch, which suggests the Jets are more comfortable with a player like Capobianco regularly sitting out games than a higher-upside blueliner whose development the team may be more invested in. That could give Capobianco a leg up in retaining his NHL status for next season, though there are complicating factors.
One complicating factor is the presence of Stanley, a player who reportedly made a trade request back in March. Stanley’s requested trade has not materialized, and he could be in line to see his role on the Jets decline even further than it did in 2022-23. Stanley played 58 NHL games in 2021-22 but saw that number decline to just 19 this past season. Stanley hasn’t played in the AHL since 2019-20 and would need to clear waivers to be sent to the AHL’s Manitoba Moose.
As a player who offers rare size and has first-round pedigree, the Jets would not be blamed for hesitating to expose Stanley to waivers and risk losing him for nothing. But seeing as he has seemingly fallen out of favor in Winnipeg and may no longer be in their future plans, can the franchise justify Stanley claiming one of the NHL roster spots above another defenseman such as Heinola, Capobianco, or Chisholm?
Heinola remains waivers-exempt for another season, so despite headlines devoted to the player’s dissatisfaction with how scarce his chances to establish himself as an NHLer have been he remains the likeliest candidate to remain in the AHL to start another season.
Heinola is clearly an accomplished talent at that level (he scored 37 points in 48 games last season) but one wonders if yet another season playing AHL hockey is best for his development compared to being able to test himself against the fires of NHL competition.
Regardless, since Heinola is waivers-exempt it would in all likelihood take a trade or a stunning performance in preseason for Heinola to make the NHL roster out of camp, since Winnipeg would be promoting him at the cost of waiving another player.
That leaves Chisholm, 23, in the best position to threaten Capobianco and/or Stanley’s position in the NHL. Chisholm is no longer waivers-exempt and given his exemplary performance in the AHL (43 points in 59 games) he is a genuine candidate to be of interest to clubs high in the waiver priority.
The Jets drafted Chisholm in 2018 and have developed him in Manitoba for three seasons, meaning it would definitely sting to put all that work into growing a player only to see another NHL club reap the fruits of that labor during 2023-24.
The sting they’d feel would be almost identical to what the organization must have felt watching Johnathan Kovacevic carve out a spot as an NHL regular with the Montreal Canadiens last season. The Jets spent a 2017 third-round pick to draft Kovacevic and oversaw his development both in college and in the AHL for a half-decade.
The Jets’ extensive effort developing Kovacevic culminated in the franchise receiving two NHL games from Kovacevic before losing him on waivers. Because the team opted to roster other defencemen over Kovacevic, the Canadiens appear to have a quality defensive defensemen on their hands at a remarkably affordable $766k cap charge through 2024-25.
That’s a genuinely valuable asset to have, and the Jets are unlikely to want to put themselves in that position again, possibly handing another club a valuable defenseman for a second consecutive year. As a result, it seems the likeliest outcome is Capobianco is waived, Heinola is sent to the AHL, and both Stanley and Chisholm are rostered in the NHL.
But unless a trade is completed before opening night, the uncertainty of waivers will hang above the heads of Jets decision-makers as they ponder how to construct their NHL roster. If nothing else, the success of Chisholm and the presence of waivers will make the battle for the Jets’ final one or two defensive roster spots one of the most intriguing storylines to watch in the NHL preseason process.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Maple Leafs’ Rodion Amirov Reportedly Making Progress In Cancer Recovery
One of the scariest pieces of NHL news in recent memory came across the wire in February 2022, when then-Toronto Maple Leafs general manager Kyle Dubas revealed that 2020 first-round pick Rodion Amirov had been diagnosed with a brain tumor. The 21-year-old winger has not played hockey since and continues on a long road to what is hopefully a full recovery.
There hasn’t been much news on Amirov’s health since the end of last year when Amirov came to Toronto to attend the team’s Hockey Fights Cancer night in November but returned to Russia to continue treatment shortly after and could not train. At the time, it was viewed as a setback in his recovery – Amirov had said in an interview earlier that summer he was hoping to return to the ice by that time.
However, there is some positive news regarding the young forward’s health today. Rinat Bashirov, the director of sport for Amirov’s KHL team, Salavat Yulaev Ufa, told Russian outlet Sport-Express that there’s a “positive trend” in Amirov’s recovery, but he’s continuing treatment. According to Bashirov (albeit a translated quote), Ufa believes Amirov will return to the ice at some point, although there’s no clear timeline.
Amirov reportedly signed a one-year contract extension with Ufa earlier this summer, allowing him to remain closely tied with the club and pursue treatment with their guidance. He also remains under contract with the Maple Leafs, although his three-year, entry-level contract expires next summer.
PHR extends its best wishes for Amirov’s long-term health and positive recovery.
Coyotes, Jack McBain Reach Pre-Arbitration Settlement
The Arizona Coyotes and young center Jack McBain have reached a two-year settlement ahead of their scheduled arbitration hearing today, according to a team release. The deal earns him $1.6MM per season, per Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman.
This settlement is a win for the Coyotes, who get the two-year contract they desired and a cap hit below the midpoint of the team and player filings submitted Friday before today’s planned hearing. The Coyotes had filed for a two-year, $1.2MM AAV deal, while McBain filed for a one-year, $2.25MM contract, putting the salary midpoint at $1.725MM.
McBain, 23, brings an intriguing blend of size and two-way potential to the bottom of the Coyotes’ lineup. Standing at 6-foot-4 and 218 pounds, Arizona acquired McBain’s signing rights from the Minnesota Wild in March 2022 after McBain informed the Wild he wouldn’t be signing with them after finishing his collegiate career at Boston College.
The Toronto-born center had a ten-game stint with the Coyotes to end the 2021-22 campaign in which he didn’t look entirely out of place, recording two goals and adding an assist on the heels of a point-per-game season in college and an Olympic appearance for Canada. That late-season experience in the NHL gave him a leg up heading into 2022-23, where he played in all 82 games as a rookie and finished 12th on the team in points with 26 and eighth in goals with 12.
Arizona now has a bit of a logjam at center, though, with youngsters Barrett Hayton and Logan Cooley and veterans Nick Bjugstad and Travis Boyd, meaning McBain is likely once again slated for a fourth-line role next season, potentially even on the wing. He did post a somewhat subpar faceoff win rate of 44% last season, although the whole team wasn’t adept in that department – only Hayton posted a win rate higher than 50% out of the team’s four everyday centers.
CapFriendly has not registered McBain’s deal at the time of writing, but once it is, Arizona will have roughly $7.15MM in cap space with a full roster of 23 players, per their projection.
As PHNX Sports’ Craig Morgan points out, it’s also worth noting that the Coyotes are now in a rather tricky position regarding their total registered contracts within the organization. They’re now at 49 out of the 50-contract maximum and still have restricted free agent Jan Jeník to sign to a deal, which, if he’s signed, would leave them without the ability to make any player acquisitions without getting rid of a contract (e.g., waiver claims, free agent signings).
McBain will again be a restricted free agent with arbitration rights when his new contract expires in 2025.
PHNX Sports’ Craig Morgan was the first to report the two sides were close to a settlement.
Arbitration Breakdown: Trent Frederic
We’re entering the final few days of the salary arbitration calendar, meaning most of the remaining notable restricted free agents will have contracts in place for next season by the end of next week. There are a number of notable cases that remain unsettled, including a pair of high-end young goalies in the Boston Bruins’ Jeremy Swayman and the Minnesota Wild’s Filip Gustavsson. Swayman’s hearing is today, meaning we’ll learn his contractual fate for next season on Tuesday. However, there’s a teammate of Swayman’s and an important depth piece for the Bruins facing an arbitration hearing of his own – forward Trent Frederic, who now has just 48 hours remaining until his arbitration hearing on Tuesday.
Filings
Team: two years, $1.4MM AAV
Player: one year, $2.9MM AAV
Midpoint: $2.15MM AAV
(via Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman)
The Numbers
2022-23 was a breakout year for Frederic, recording career highs in offensive categories across the board. While he may not be a long-term top-flight center solution as the Bruins envisioned when they selected him 29th overall in 2016, the 25-year-old has grown into an extremely effective bottom-six power forward. His scoring skyrocketed this season despite not seeing a major increase in ice time, and he didn’t sacrifice the solid defensive play he’d shown in his two prior full NHL seasons. His 17 goals were sixth on the powerhouse Bruins last year despite playing under 12 minutes per game.
If advanced analytics hold any bearing in arbitration hearings, Frederic’s side should use them to their advantage. Many of his possession-based metrics indicate his production this season isn’t a fluke, as his ability to drive play has steadily grown during his time in the NHL. However, it is fair to wonder if an increase in ice time (and, therefore, tougher matchups) may diminish his effectiveness slightly. It’s an important factor to take into consideration, as Frederic is expected to play a bigger role on the Bruins next season with wing depth like Taylor Hall and Tyler Bertuzzi no longer on the team.
His NHL career doesn’t carry a terribly long track record, though, something that may give the arbitrator some pause. Frederic hasn’t cracked the 200-game mark in his career, and he only transformed into an everyday NHLer this season, oftentimes being healthy scratched at points throughout the 2020-21 and 2021-22 campaigns.
2022-23 Stats: 79 GP, 17-14-31, +28 rating, 57 PIMs, 120 shots, 11:55 ATOI
Career Stats: 198 GP, 29-25-54, +25 rating, 194 PIMs, 284 shots, 11:27 ATOI
Potential Comparables
Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used. The contracts below fit within those parameters. Player salaries also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides of Frederic’s negotiation.
Philipp Kurashev (Blackhawks) – Kurashev is a few years younger than Frederic but has a similar amount of NHL experience. Like Frederic, he also posted career-highs in offensive categories last season but had less production and infinitely worse defensive results. However, Kurashev was relied upon to play heavy minutes (more than 17 minutes per game) for a lottery Blackhawks team – likely more responsibility than he was fit to handle. An arbitrator awarded Kurashev a $2.25MM AAV last week, coming in above the midpoint of Boston’s and Frederic’s filings. Given Frederic’s better scoring and two-way play but extremely sheltered minutes, this could fall close to the arbitrator’s final decision here.
Warren Foegele (Hurricanes) – This comparison may be a bit dated (Foegele had his arbitration award in November 2020), but played a much more similar role on the Hurricanes to Frederic’s on the Bruins than in the Kurashev comparison outlined above. After a season in which Foegele registered similar offensive production to Frederic (30 points in 68 games), an arbitrator awarded him a $2.15MM deal for the 2020-21 campaign. It presents a solid argument for the arbitrator to rule right down the middle of Boston’s and Frederic’s filings.
Artturi Lehkonen (Canadiens) – Lehkonen had filed for arbitration with the Canadiens in the summer of 2021, but the two sides came to a pre-hearing agreement on a one-year deal worth $2.3MM. Lehkonen was the same age as Frederic at the time of signing and produced similarly strong two-way results, although Lekhonen had significantly more NHL experience at the time of signing, with 338 games under his belt. However, he was coming off a down season – just seven goals and 13 points in 47 games, hurting his stock.
Projection
No matter what, it does seem Frederic will be signing a two-year contract unless the arbitrator awards significantly in his favor. As Frederic was the party that filed for arbitration, Boston is free to choose between a one-year or two-year pact based on the AAV awarded by the arbitrator. The contract would walk Frederic directly to unrestricted free agency, but it’s something Boston is evidently comfortable with based on their filing.
The comparisons outlined place Frederic’s likely award very near to but likely slightly above the midpoint of $2.15MM. It seems unlikely the arbitrator would go any higher than $2.5MM on an award, though, especially considering his limited ice time and consistent fourth-line role. Regardless, it’s likely he’ll more than double his $1.05MM salary from the last two seasons.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
West Notes: Oilers, Wild, Blackhawks
The Edmonton Oilers have been one of the NHL’s more interesting teams to watch over the past decade, finally overcoming years of what could best be described as dysfunctionality to once again become yearly postseason contenders on the backs of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. That’s not to say it hasn’t been a rough-and-tumble road for the team since making their first playoff appearance with this core in 2017 – there’s still the sense this core hasn’t lived up to expectations without a Stanley Cup Final appearance to show for their rather electrifying success at times. Today, David Staples of the Edmonton Journal argued that, for whatever reason you choose to believe, the Oilers’ rather stagnant offseason is a sign of better things to come.
It didn’t really matter this summer if the Oilers and general manager Ken Holland wanted to make a big splash – they simply couldn’t make anything work with an airtight salary cap situation and RFAs Evan Bouchard and Ryan McLeod to re-sign. Staples illustrates this example with past Oilers teams of the 1980s glory days, but championship-caliber teams are rarely built through major free agency additions. Keeping a similar core intact and nurturing it, giving it time to grow while continuing to develop chemistry, has led to positive results in the past.
Despite the mounting pressure to perform in Edmonton, the sky isn’t falling – they’ve lost to the eventual Stanley Cup champion in back-to-back seasons and have put up good performances against great teams in both runs, especially during their Battle of Alberta win against the Calgary Flames in 2022. Consistency between the pipes remains an issue, though, perhaps the most impossible problem to solve for any team in the league.
More tidbits to end this Saturday night from around the Western Conference:
- While forward Oskar Sundqvist was visibly elated to return to the St. Louis Blues this offseason in free agency, the club with which he won a Stanley Cup championship in 2019, it wasn’t the only option for his future he had in mind. In an interview with The Athletic’s Jeremy Rutherford earlier this week, Sundqvist revealed he greatly enjoyed his post-trade deadline stint with the Minnesota Wild, and there was mutual interest in an extension to keep him in the State of Hockey. However, there wasn’t a feasible way to keep him around with a heavy salary cap crunch on Minnesota’s end, thanks to nearly $15MM in dead cap caused by the Zach Parise and Ryan Suter buyouts. Sundqvist did end up signing a league-minimum one-way contract with the Blues, however, who were also in a tight financial situation after acquiring center Kevin Hayes at a reduced price from the Philadelphia Flyers. Sundqvist did well in Minnesota, posting seven points in 15 games down the stretch before injuries kept him out of most of their First Round playoff loss against the Dallas Stars.
- The Chicago Blackhawks’ ownership is adding a junior hockey powerhouse to their portfolio in the USHL’s Chicago Steel, according to a report from The Athletic’s Scott Powers. The Steel are arguably the most recognizable franchise in American top-flight junior hockey, capturing the league’s regular-season title four seasons in a row and churning out high-end NHL prospects such as projected 2024 first-overall pick Macklin Celebrini and Columbus Blue Jackets star center prospect Adam Fantilli in the process. It’s a major move for the Blackhawks’ parent, the Wirtz Corporation, just days after principal owner and chairman Rocky Wirtz passed away unexpectedly at the age of 70.
List Of NHL Prospects Attending 2023 World Junior Summer Showcase
Today, the 2023 World Junior Summer Showcase got off to a raucous start. The four-team friendly summer tune-up tournament includes two contingents from the United States (a Blue team and a White team), as well as rosters from Sweden and Finland. All teams are made up of U20 players eligible for the 2024 World Junior Championships set to kick off in December, and the showcase tournament provides a chance for national organizations of three of the best hockey countries in the world to evaluate things like physical readiness and line chemistry that come into play when deciding on final rosters for the real deal in winter.
Unfortunately for the United States, both teams lost their opening games today at home in Plymouth, Michigan, rather decidedly – USA Blue dropped the tournament opener to Sweden by a score of 7-0, while USA White fared much better but still lost to Finland, 4-2.
There are a couple of notable draft-eligible players suiting up at this tournament for the US. Team White boasts presumptive 2024 top-two pick Cole Eiserman among their forward core, while Team Blue has 2025 top prospect James Hagens in the mix at center (he even dressed on their first line today). The Finns also boast a pair of high-level 2024-eligible prospects in defenseman Aron Kiviharju and forward Konsta Helenius.
That being said, the games for this tournament are available to watch for free online, and information on this can be found through USA Hockey’s social media channels. With that in mind, it’s of interest to NHL fans to see which of your team’s prospects is suiting up at this mid-summer exhibition tournament in advance of the biggest few days in junior hockey:
Anaheim Ducks – F Carey Terrance (USA White)
Arizona Coyotes – F Samu Bau (Finland), F Tanner Ludtke (USA White)
Buffalo Sabres – F Anton Wahlberg (Sweden)
Calgary Flames – F Topi Rönni (Finland)
Carolina Hurricanes – F Cruz Lucius (USA Blue), F Felix Unger Sörum (Sweden)
Chicago Blackhawks – F Gavin Hayes (USA Blue), F Oliver Moore (USA Blue), F Frank Nazar (USA White), D Sam Rinzel (USA White)
Columbus Blue Jackets – F Gavin Brindley (USA Blue), F William Whitelaw (USA White)
Detroit Red Wings – D Anton Johansson (Sweden), D Axel Sandin Pellikka (Sweden), G Trey Augustine (USA White)
Florida Panthers – G Tyler Muszelik (USA White)
Los Angeles Kings – D Otto Salin (Finland), G Hampton Slukynsky (USA White)
Minnesota Wild – F Charlie Stramel (USA White)
Montreal Canadiens – D Lane Hutson (USA White), G Jacob Fowler (USA Blue)
Nashville Predators – F Jesse Kiiskinen (Finland), F Felix Nilsson (Sweden), D Kasper Kulonummi (Finland)
New Jersey Devils – F Lenni Hämeenaho (Finland), D Seamus Casey (USA Blue), D Charlie Leddy (USA Blue)
New York Islanders – F Quinn Finley (USA Blue), F Danny Nelson (USA Blue), F Jessi Nurmi (Finland), D Calle Odelius (Sweden), D Zach Schulz (USA White)
New York Rangers – F Gabe Perreault (USA Blue), D Drew Fortescue (USA White)
Ottawa Senators – F Oskar Pettersson (Sweden), G Kevin Reidler (Sweden)
Philadelphia Flyers – F Cutter Gauthier (USA White), F Devin Kaplan (USA White), F Cole Knuble (USA Blue)
Pittsburgh Penguins – D Emil Pieniniemi (Finland)
San Jose Sharks – F Filip Bystedt (Sweden), F Kasper Halttunen (Finland), F Cam Lund (USA Blue), F Quentin Musty (USA Blue), F Will Smith (USA Blue), D Mattias Hävelid (Sweden), D Eric Pohlkamp (USA White)
Seattle Kraken – F Zeb Forsfjäll (Sweden), F Jani Nyman (Finland), G Niklas Kokko (Finland), G Visa Vedenpää (Finland)
St. Louis Blues – F Jimmy Snuggerud (USA White), F Otto Stenberg (Sweden), D Paul Fischer (USA Blue), D Theo Lindstein (Sweden)
Tampa Bay Lightning – F Isaac Howard (USA White)
Vancouver Canucks – D Hunter Brzustewicz (USA Blue), D Jackson Dorrington (USA White), D Elias Pettersson (Sweden)
Vegas Golden Knights – F David Edstrom (Sweden)
Washington Capitals – F Ryan Leonard (USA White), F Alexander Suzdalev (Sweden), D Ryan Chesley (USA White)
Winnipeg Jets – F Rutger McGroarty (USA White), F Fabian Wagner (Sweden), D Garrett Brown (USA Blue), D Elias Salomonsson (Sweden)
The Sharks lead the way with seven representatives at the tournament, led by 2023 fourth-overall pick Will Smith. Only five teams have no affiliated prospects at the showcase – the Boston Bruins, Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars, Edmonton Oilers, and Toronto Maple Leafs.
Finland Announces Roster For 2023 Hlinka Gretzky Cup
With just two days before the beginning of the tournament and exhibition games already underway, Finland has announced their roster for the 2023 Hlinka Gretzky Cup, as reported by Elite Prospects’ Lassi Alanen. The yearly summer tournament is the first major event on the calendar for draft-eligible prospects, and this year’s eight-team tourney will showcase some of the best players available in next summer’s 2024 NHL Draft.
Finland is always one of the favorites to make some noise in international events, but as Alanen notes, they’ll be without a few crucial pieces at this year’s event, which significantly handicaps their chances of medalling at the event. Defenseman Aron Kiviharju and center Konsta Helenius are both potential top-ten choices come next June, but they’re currently at another summer event for the higher-level U20 team at the World Junior Summer Showcase. They’ll also be missing 2006-born defenseman Veeti Väisänen, who participated with last year’s Hlinka Gretzky squad but dropped out of this year’s edition at the last minute, per Alanen.
That being said, there are some other names worth watching. Center Julius Miettinen is 2024-eligible and is the only member of Finland’s roster slated to play in North America next season. After the WHL’s Everett Silvertips selected him 30th overall in this year’s CHL Import Draft, he’s slated to head to the Washington-based team after recording 10 goals, 12 assists and 22 points in 38 games with HIFK Helsinki’s U20 squad last season in the U20 SM-sarja. 6-foot-2 forward Emil Hemming of Liiga club TPS is also regarded as a potential first-round talent next summer and currently stands as the country’s fourth-best offering among the 2024 class behind Kiviharju, Helenius, and Väisänen.
With that being said, here’s Finland’s full roster for the tournament, set to run from Monday, July 31, through Saturday, August 5:
G Petteri Rimpinen
G Kim Saarinen
D Onni Amhamdi
D Daniel Nieminen
D Mitja Jokinen
D Bruno Jalasti
D Niilopekka Muhonen
D Eelis Marila
D Atte Vikla
D Arttu Välilä *not NHL draft-eligible until 2025
F Emil Hemming
F Joonas Paqvalin
F Markus Loponen
F Akseli Pulkkanen
F Tuomas Suoniemi
F Julius Miettinen
F Heikki Ruohonen
F Juho Keinänen
F Natan Teshome
F Roope Vesterinen
F Ville Väärälä
F Joona Saarelainen
F Aatu Heinänen
F Lauri Sinivuori
Minor Transactions: 07/29/23
Player moves in the NHL are slowing to a grinding halt, although a few notable free agents remain unsigned. Those talents include the NHL’s all-time ironman, Phil Kessel (link), and top-four defender Matt Dumba (link), whose free agencies we’ve examined in detail.
However, moves are still coming in from the CHL, AHL, and major European leagues, all of which we’re keeping track of on a daily basis as the offseason rolls along. Here’s a list of today’s minor transactions for July 29, 2023:
- The WHL’s Vancouver Giants made a significant add on the back end today, parting with valuable assets to acquire 2024 NHL Draft-eligible defenseman Marek Howell from the Moose Jaw Warriors, according to a team release. In total, the Giants gave up a solid middle-six scorer in forward Ethan Semeniuk, a 2024 first-round pick, a 2024 fifth-round pick and a 2025 second-round pick. Howell, a shutdown defender, joins the Giants after going to Moose Jaw at 16th overall in the 2021 WHL Prospects Draft, and he registered four points in 44 games during his rookie season with the Warriors last year. The Giants have finished below the .500 mark in back-to-back seasons, and they’ll look to Howell to help them get back to relevancy in the WHL’s B.C. Division. He joins a squad likely to be led by Calgary Flames 2023 first-round selection Samuel Honzek, who signed his entry-level deal with the team earlier this week. Semeniuk, who was passed over in the 2023 NHL Draft, could be a nice add for Moose Jaw in this deal – he tied for fifth on the Giants in goals last year with 12 tallies in 64 games.
- Defenseman Anthony Constantini, formerly of the OHL’s Ottawa 67s, has found a home to begin his pro career. After four years in the nation’s capital, Constantini is heading to the lower ranks of the Swedish hockey system to join Tranås AIF of HockeyEttan, Sweden’s third-tier league below the SHL and HockeyAllsvenskan. A smooth-skating right-shot defender, Constantini logged top-four minutes for the 67’s last year and finished second among their defensemen in scoring with seven goals, 29 assists and 36 points in 67 games. He’ll try and help Tranås earn a promotion to the Allsvenskan, a feat they haven’t achieved since 2003. Constantini is the twin brother of netminder Marco Constantini, who won the OHL championship with the Hamilton Bulldogs in 2021-22 and led the league in multiple stats that season, including GAA, SV%, and shutouts.
- Former Montreal Canadiens prospect Nichlas Torp‘s latest stint in the SHL will be a short one, as he’s dropped back down a level in Swedish hockey by signing a two-year contract with Allsvenskan club Nybro Vikings IF. Selected in the sixth round of the 2007 NHL Draft, the 34-year-old never did come over to North America and has spent his entire pro career in Sweden and Germany. He’d spent the last two seasons playing with HV71, with whom he helped gain promotion from the Allsvenskan to the SHL in 2022. A strong, hard-hitting defender, Torp’s effectiveness waned in his play with HV71 last season, signaling that a move to second-tier pro hockey may be more his pace as he enters his mid-30s. Nybro will look to his veteran leadership to help them stay afloat after gaining promotion from the HockeyEttan for the first time since 2009.
This page will be updated throughout the day.
Free Agent Profile: Nick Ritchie
There is a reason that power forwards often receive plenty of opportunities. Players with size, skill, and physicality are hard to come by and if you can get one that can become a key contributor, you’ll have a core piece pretty quickly. Typically, if you have a chance to get one, it’s worth the chance even if it hasn’t worked out with multiple organizations in the past.
This belief has played a big role in free agent winger Nick Ritchie’s career. It helped make him the tenth overall pick back in 2014 by Anaheim. It played a role in Boston trading for him in 2020. It played a role in Toronto giving Ritchie a 25% raise on what his qualifying offer would have been after the Bruins non-tendered him. Some player types are ones that teams are more willing to take a flyer on and Ritchie is one of those.
That makes it a little interesting that the 27-year-old remains unsigned as we’ve reached the four-week mark of free agency. While his game-to-game performances can be inconsistent, he’s a safe bet to reach the double-digit mark for goals and assists (as long as he stays healthy) while he’s averaging over 2.8 hits per game over the last two seasons. He has only surpassed 30 points once and his benchmark for goals is 15 so the ceiling is fairly low but the floor is still decent. Generally speaking, those players have some value despite Ritchie having a career profile that has been a bit underwhelming relative to his draft stock.
Sure, he might not be the prototypical fourth line grinder despite what a passing glance at the numbers might suggest but Ritchie nevertheless remains one of the more intriguing forwards still available on the open market.
Stats
2022-23: 74 GP, 13-13-26, -21 rating, 53 PIMS, 120 shots, 218 hits, 47.1% CF, 13:33 ATOI
Career: 481 GP, 84-102-186, -29 rating, 483 PIMS, 834 shots, 1,259 hits, 50.3% CF, 13:38 ATOI
Potential Suitors
There are two types of teams that stand out as possible fits for Ritchie. The first is a rebuilding team that wants to add a bit of grit to their bottom six and perhaps have a late-season trade asset on their hands. The other is a playoff-bound squad that would rather get a full season out of Ritchie over flipping a draft pick or prospect to get him as a rental at the deadline.
In the East, Detroit still has ample cap space to work with and they have made several changes up front already. If they want some of their prospects to have more development time in Grand Rapids, Ritchie could fit on their fourth line. Buffalo has a short-term opening with Jack Quinn set to miss the first couple of months at least and GM Kevyn Adams’ moves in recent months have been made with an eye on making the team bigger and more physical. Philadelphia added some grit already this summer in Garnet Hathaway and could look to bring in Ritchie as a younger, cheaper version while also allowing for a prospect to spend a bit more time in the minors.
Out West, Edmonton will be looking for some upgraded depth on the fourth line but Ritchie would only fit if he’s open to signing for the league minimum as the Oilers don’t project to have much, if any, cap space at their disposal once they re-sign their restricted free agents. San Jose fits from the standpoint of being a fit for Ritchie to play a bigger role than perhaps just a fourth line one which could give him a bit of value closer to the deadline when playoff teams are looking to add some grit. Colorado has reshaped its bottom six group this summer after it struggled last season but Ritchie would be a further upgrade while they still have some LTIR room from Gabriel Landeskog at their disposal.
Projected Contract
If Ritchie is looking to land with a playoff-caliber team, most of those are limited to contracts that are basically at or around the league minimum. But if he’s open to being in a similar situation as he was last season with Arizona, there are a few teams out there that could give him a deal in the $1MM range with an eye on flipping him (perhaps with retention) at the deadline. It’s a matter of when, not if, Ritchie signs somewhere but regardless of where he goes, he’ll be facing a significant pay cut.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Senators, Jake Sanderson To Discuss Extension Later This Summer
The Senators took care of one important piece of business earlier this week with the signing of Vladimir Tarasenko to a one-year contract to help fill the void created by the departure of Alex DeBrincat to Detroit. While they’re pretty much capped out, GM Pierre Dorion is hoping to have another big contract in the works as Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch reports that the Sens and defenseman Jake Sanderson are set to sit down for extension discussions later this summer.
The 21-year-old had an impressive rookie season in 2022-23, collecting 32 points for Ottawa in 77 games while logging nearly 22 minutes a night of ice time. The fifth-overall pick in 2020, Sanderson is projected to be a cornerstone piece for the Sens on their back end so it’s not surprising that the team wants to sit down and talk about a new deal early.
But it will be tricky to find a number that both sides are happy with considering that Sanderson’s NHL experience is limited to just those 77 games; that’s not a large sample size to work with. There will be a lot of projecting with a long-term contract which makes it more difficult to lock down a year before it expires.
If the two sides look at a long-term agreement, they have a reasonable in-house comparable in Thomas Chabot, a player who makes the type of impact now that they believe Sanderson can down the road. His eight-year deal carries an AAV of $8MM; from a cap percentage standpoint, that agreement is worth $8.2MM per season today. Miro Heiskanen’s $8.45MM AAV in Dallas would likely be the high point of any discussions.
Notably, Sanderson will have five years of club control remaining next summer; while he burned the first year of his entry-level deal in 2021-22, that doesn’t count as a year of service time toward UFA eligibility. Assuming that they’d want to add at least a couple of years of control on a long-term deal, that basically takes a five-year or six-year agreement off the table.
While Ottawa has had the reputation of not being a high-spending team, that isn’t really the case anymore. Per CapFriendly, they already have $65.77MM in commitments for 2024-25 to just 13 players and while there is an expectation of a bigger cap increase next summer than the $1MM it has been lately, they’re still looking at needing to sign seven to ten players with around $20MM in room to work with. A big-ticket long-term deal with Sanderson will start to put the squeeze on.
To that end, perhaps the two sides might ultimately be inclined to look toward a bridge deal that buys the two sides more evaluation time and the Sens a bit more short-term flexibility. But if that’s the direction one or both sides are leaning, it’s unlikely that an agreement will be reached this summer. In that case, one extra year of results would be quite useful for both Ottawa and Sanderson.
With Tarasenko in the fold, Dorion can check off one more item from his to-do list. Sooner than later it seems, he’ll start working on the next item to see if an early agreement can be reached with one of his top blueliners.