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Atlantic Notes: Karlsson, Pacioretty, Blashill, Kotkaniemi

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When looking across the spectrum at different sports, there are often situations that have similarities, which is what happened last week with the San Antonio Spurs when they were forced to trade their superstar basketball player Kawhi Leonard away, eventually trading him to the Toronto Raptors. While a very different sport, The Athletic’s Arpon Basu (subscription required) writes that the Spurs handled everything with class, even if they didn’t come out with the best return, and there are other general managers in the NHL, such as Montreal’s Marc Bergevin and Ottawa’s Pierre Dorion who should be paying attention.

The most comparable situation comes to Dorion who is tasked to move superstar defenseman Erik Karlsson as soon as possible. Just like in San Antonio, everyone knows Dorion has to trade him, making it more challenging to get a quality return. The Montreal’s situation with Max Pacioretty isn’t the same, but is similar to DeMar DeRozan, who the Spurs received from Toronto in the Leonard trade, who the team wants to move in fear of him leaving eventually. Regardless, Basu writes that both teams need to move on from their respective situations and the longer they wait the more desperate they are going to get. Neither team is going to want Karlsson or Pacioretty to show up at training camp in a few months. Both teams need to do the best they can and move on as quickly as possible.

  • In an interview with Detroit Red Wings head coach Jeff Blashill, the Detroit Free-Press’ Helene St. James asks the coach about the importance of integrating youth onto their roster next season. The head coach says that there will have to be more advantages given to younger players this coming year. “I think one of the big keys is that when you are a playoff team on an annual basis, the right move is that when a young player and a veteran player are tied, the tie goes to the veteran,” Blashill said. “When you are a team that hasn’t made the playoffs for two years and a young player and a veteran player are tied, I think now the tie should go to the young player.” That could be a big advantage to some of the team’s top talents from Michael Rasmussen, Filip Zadina, Filip Hronek and Dennis Cholowski who will all be fighting for roster spots in training camp.
  • Sean Farrell of NHL.com writes that the Montreal Canadiens’ 2018 first-round pick, center Jesperi Kotkaniemi could make the team out of training camp. Bergevin said Kotkaniemi will be at training camp and didn’t rule out the third-overall pick from making the team. “He got better every day, so we’re going in with an open mind,” Bergevin said. “I don’t know, but just the fact that he’s signed and he’s coming to camp and he’s closer to the NHL. Where he’s going to be Oct. 1, I can’t tell you, but we see a lot of potential and growth in this young man.”

What Happened To The Antoine Vermette Market?

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Approaching July 1st this year, one name had been given a somewhat surprising amount of attention. Veteran center Antoine Vermette, who was coming off the least productive season of his long career, was nevertheless reported to be a target of several teams by several different sources. TVA’s Renaud Lavoie went so far as to say that with a high demand for centermen, there was “significant interest” across the league in Vermette. Yet, three weeks later, he remains a free agent with little to no discussion of any potential landing spots.

What could have caused Vermette’s market to fall apart? It could be that many teams taking a look at the two-way pivot were able to land superior options, while others found comparable players at a cheaper price. Vermette hasn’t made under $1MM in a season since 2006 and at 36 years old he may not have been willing to return to that price point to extend his career. However, several other unrestricted free agent centers with similar (and superior) 2017-18 production have signed at cap hit between the $650K minimum and Vermette’s previous $1.75MM salary. They include Matt Cullen and Derek Grant to the Pittsburgh Penguins, Kyle Brodziak to the Edmonton Oilers, and Vermette’s Anaheim teammate Chris Wagner to the Boston Bruins, as well as Connor Brickley to the Nashville Predators, Paul Carey to the Ottawa Senators, and Michael Sgarbossa to the Washington Capitals. That’s at least six teams who likely kicked the tires on Vermette but may have found a better fit at an more comfortable price in who they decided to sign.

The other possibility is that the market was overblown in the first place. It did seem as though Vermette was slowing down substantially last season. The 14-year veteran recorded eight goals and eight assists for 16 points with the Ducks last season; each of those marks is Vermette’s lowest since his rookie year in 2003-04. His physicality tailed off and he was not as successful with his trademark defensive play, lagging in turnovers and zone exits and posting career-low possession numbers. Vermette was still dominant at the face-off dot, but teams may have been overplaying that one trait and Vermette’s years of experience, when other options with higher potential for offense and defense were waiting for them on the open market.

It could be that Vermette’s name value alone lands him a job this summer. It may be that he was overpricing himself early on to teams or that the market simply never developed, but it seems unlikely that if the well-respected and well-traveled center wanted to play next season, that he couldn’t find a shot somewhere. However, the demand is not what it once was in the past and not what it was made out to be earlier this month. Perhaps Vermette’s time to hang up the skate has come.

Minor Transactions: 7/18/18

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The past few days have been a busy stretch for fringe NHL free agents deciding whether to hold out for a big league deal or look elsewhere. Significant names such as Torrey Mitchell and Teemu Pulkkinen have signed overseas, while other players have settled for minor league employment. Similar deals have continued throughout the day:

  • Count Michael Latta as a player making the jump across the Atlantic. Or would it be the Pacific? Latta has signed with the Kunlun Red Star, the sole Chinese member of the KHL. He announced the deal himself today, while European insider Aivis Kalnins adds that it is a one-year contract. Latta, who is most well known for his days as a serviceable bottom-six regular with the Washington Capitals, has actually not played in an NHL game since 2015-16 in D.C. Latta has landed NHL contracts in each of the past two off-seasons with the Los Angeles Kings and Arizona Coyotes respectively and has even been a sought-after trade acquisition in both years, but nevertheless has played only in the AHL. Latta’s numbers in the minors are not all that impressive either, so perhaps his move to the KHL presents an opportunity for his two-way game to be better appreciated.
  • Veteran forward Mike Blunden is making a similar move but to a lesser-known team and league. The long-time depth forward has made an NHL appearance in all but one season since turning pro in 2006, including multiple seasons where more than half of his time was spent at the top level, but saw only three games with the Ottawa Senators over the course of his recently-expired two-year contract. A proven scorer in the AHL, Blunden is likely in pursuit of a new opportunity and higher compensation outside of North America. Per a team release, Blunden has signed a contract with HC Bolzano of the Austria-based EBEL. However, the “Foxes” are actually located in Italy and are the premiere pro team of the country. Bolzano is the reigning EBEL champion and has been loading up this off-season to defend their title, adding Blunden and fellow AHLers Leland Irving, Brett Findlay, and Matt MacKenzie. Blunden could turn out to be a top scorer for the team this season.
  • Experienced goaltender Tom McCollum is not quite ready to leave North America or even the Great Lakes region. The Buffalo-area native has spent all but one season of his nine-year pro career in the Detroit Red Wings system, appearing in over 250 games with the AHL’s Grand Rapids Griffins. However, without an offer from the Red Wings or presumably an AHL offer from the Griffins this summer, McCollum has decided to take his talents to their arch rival. The Milwaukee Admirals have announced that they have signed the veteran netminder to a one-year minor league deal. The team’s release calls McCollum a “proverbial thorn in the Admirals’ side” for years, but he has now joined them in their pursuit of a Calder Cup. Milwaukee’s parent club, the Nashville Predators, could also come calling if injuries strike; the team has just three goalies signed who have pro experience in North America.
  • Forward Tyler Randell is sticking around in the AHL as well. The 27-year-old enforcer has been unable to land a two-way NHL contract, but will settle for a minor league deal. The Rochester Americans have announced that they have signed Randell to a one-year AHL contract. Randell, a 2009 sixth-round draft pick of the Boston Bruins, is an impressive physical force and a smart defensive player. He even earned himself 27 NHL games with the Bruins in 2015-16 and a nice $700K free agent contract from the Ottawa Senators last summer. However, his offensive game is severely limited at all levels and it’s no surprise that his NHL market was lacking this off-season after an eight-point campaign with the Belleville Senators last season. Randell brings energy and grit to Rochester, but if his scoring doesn’t improve in consistency and frequency, he’s unlikely to end up back in the NHL.

Ottawa Senators Re-Sign Nick Paul

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The Ottawa Senators have signed one of their restricted free agents, inking Nick Paul to a one-year two-way contract worth $650K at the NHL level. Paul was not eligible to file for salary arbitration, and will be an RFA at the conclusion of the deal.

Paul, 23, only played 11 games for Ottawa last season, instead spending most of the year with the Belleville Senators of the AHL. The 6’4″ forward is an excellent offensive contributor at the minor league level, but can’t seem to carve out a full-time role in the NHL. There may be more opportunity this season with players like Mike Hoffman and Alexandre Burrows not around, but Paul will have to show that he can contribute in various ways to really make an impact.

Originally selected in the fourth round by the Dallas Stars, Paul has just 36 NHL games under his career to this point. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him add to that total this year, but he doesn’t look like a key part of the turnaround in Ottawa. The Senators are expected to struggle on the ice even if they keep captain Erik Karlsson around, and are looking to add more young talent into the pipeline. Even with his relative youth, Paul doesn’t possess the type of high-end skill that is needed for Ottawa to really get back to contending.

Former NHL Goalie Ray Emery Passes Away At Age 35

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Former NHL goaltender Ray Emery was found dead this morning at the age of 35, according to Hamilton Police. The long-time goaltender drowned in his hometown of Hamilton, Ontario. Hamilton police said Emery was reported missing early this morning and was identified as a victim of a swimming accident.

Emery played parts of 11 seasons with the Ottawa Senators, Philadelphia Flyers, Chicago Blackhawks and the Anaheim Ducks between 2003 and 2015. He played five season for the Senators and even helped take them to the Stanley Cup Finals in 2007. He eventually won a Stanley Cup with the Blackhawks in 2013 as a backup.

“On behalf of the Ottawa Senators, I wish to express my sincere condolences on the passing of Ray Emery,” owner Eugene Melnyk said in a statement. “Ray was instrumental in our run to the 2007 Stanley Cup Final, and at his best he brought a competitive edge and combative mentality to the game. On behalf of our entire organization, I wish to extend my deepest sympathies to Ray’s family, friends and loved ones.”

A fourth-round pick back in 2001, Emery played in 287 NHL games, posting career numbers of a 2.70 GAA and a .906 save percentage. His best season was the year he took the Senators to the finals as he played in a career-high 58 games that season, putting up a 2.47 GAA and a .918 save percentage. He and Corey Crawford also won the William M. Jennings Trophy in 2013 while with the Blackhawks, given to the goaltender or goaltenders who allowed the fewest goals in one season.

Pro Hockey Rumors joins in with the rest of the hockey world with thoughts for the Emery family during this difficult time.

Ottawa's Offer To Erik Karlsson Didn't Contain Significant Signing Bonuses

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Ottawa’s contract extension offer to defenseman Erik Karlsson came in close to the $11MM per year that Drew Doughty received from the Kings, reports Chris Stevenson of The Athletic (subscription required).  Previously, it was reported that the Senators had offered an eight-year deal worth $10MM per season.

However, one of the reported concerns Karlsson had with the offer was the lack of signing bonuses.  The inclusion of high signing bonuses with low salaries has picked up considerably in recent years, most notably with the John Tavares contract with Toronto earlier this month.  Whether the Senators weren’t willing to put them in or they were leaving it as something to potentially be negotiated remains to be seen but the quick rejection of that offer has led to an increase in trade speculation, especially since other teams have received permission to speak with Karlsson’s camp about an extension.

Stars May Once Again Be Frontrunner For Erik Karlsson

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  • With talks that discussions between the Senators and Lightning regarding defenseman Erik Karlsson have cooled off, Larry Brooks of the New York Post reports that Dallas has now re-emerged as the likeliest destination for the blueliner. The Stars had shown interest early on but weren’t inclined to include top prospect Miro Heiskanen in a trade which is what had seemingly put them out of the running early on.

Salary Cap Floor Should Not Pose Problems For Any Team In 2018-19

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The purpose of the salary cap in the NHL is to maintain a sense of competitive balance across the league. That means both limiting how much a team can spend, the salary cap ceiling, but also ensuring that every team is competitive with a minimum expenditure, the salary cap floor. Some teams, generally those in smaller markets or undergoing rebuilds, tend to try to toe the line of the salary cap floor, paying as close to the minimum as possible for their roster. In years past, some teams have even struggled to hit that mark, taking on injured players or overpaying players in order to pass the floor. It’s unlikely that any of the 31 franchises will face that problem in 2018-19.

This season, with a corresponding jump in the salary cap ceiling, the floor moved to $58.8MM. With the bulk of unrestricted free agency accounted for, just three teams currently sit below that mark: the New Jersey Devils, New York Rangers, and Winnipeg Jets. However, both the Rangers and Jets can immediately be crossed off as a salary floor concern. The pair are perhaps the two teams with the most potential salary tied up in salary arbitration this off-season.

The Jets currently have the lowest projected payroll in the league, with a 16-man roster that accounts for approximately $52.7MM. However, Winnipeg’s list of restricted free agents who have filed for arbitration include Vezina candidate Connor Hellebuyck, defenseman Jacob Trouba, and forwards Adam Lowry, Chris Tanev, and Marko Dano, as well as defenseman Tucker Poolman who did not file. Those six players could easily combine for more than $20MM in combined salary when all is said and done, putting the Jets well clear of the floor and closer to the ceiling. Defenseman Josh Morrissey, who is not arbitration eligible also needs a new contract. Winnipeg is far from a floor concern.

In New York, the Rangers sit at $55.8MM in projected cap committed to 16 players, just $3MM shy of the floor. They also need to re-sign a majority of their young core, with forwards Kevin Hayes, Ryan Spooner, and Jimmy Vesey and defenseman Brady Skjei having filed for arbitration. The Rangers could pass the floor by extending just one of those players, nevertheless all four. New deals for those three forwards still leaves New York one or two shy of a full roster as well, meaning more salary will come into the fold via promotion or an additional acquisition.

As for the Devils, New Jersey is already close to the floor at a projected $56.4MM for 19 players. Forwards Blake Coleman and Stefan Noesen have filed for arbitration and the deals for both could be enough to push the Devils to where they need to be. Even if it doesn’t, the team will still need to sign non-arbitration eligible RFA’s Miles Wood and Steve Santini, whose deals should definitely be enough. New Jersey will likely be a team that hovers close to the floor next season; that didn’t stop them from making the playoffs in 2017-18, though.

Perhaps the only team who should be legitimately concerned about the salary cap floor next season in Ottawa. The Senators and owner Eugene Melnyk have made it no secret that they are trying to shed salary and come in as close to the minimum as possible. Right now, the team sits just $3MM above the floor at a projected $61.8MM roster for 20 players. However, that isn’t including the arbitration resolutions for both defenseman Cody Ceci and forward Mark Stone. Those two deals will put Ottawa well above the floor. Even if the team was to trade star defenseman Erik Karlsson, they should remain above the floor, especially with additional salaries likely to be added in the trade return. The one scenario in which Melnyk could succeed in dropping significant salary would be if both Karlsson and Bobby Ryan were to be traded away. The resulting $13.75MM loss in payable salary would more than offset the contracts for Stone and Ceci and likely the contracts of those players coming back as well, potentially dropping the team below $58.8MM. Yet, even in that case, the Senators’ efforts to fill out their roster after losing Karlsson and Ryan – either by promotion or acquisition – could easily be used to get back to that mark.

The salary cap floor was never intended to be used as a target for teams to hover above and spend as little as possible. The goal of the NHL is have each and every team be competitive, not simply trying to maximize profits. As such, the 2018-19 season has some parity promise as seemingly no team will struggle to get over the floor or have to use contracts for the old and injured to get there. For the first time in years, every team seems set to be competitive and comfortably over the minimum cap hit.

All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.com.

Poll: Who Will Be The Centerpiece Of The Next Big Trade?

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Given the players remaining on the free agent market, any further fireworks this summer will likely come via a blockbuster trade. It certainly seems possible too, with more than a few major names being floated around. Who will be the first to go?

The biggest fish available for a lucky team to catch is obviously all-world defenseman Erik Karlsson. With one year remaining on his contract and on a sinking ship in Ottawa, the Senators have little choice but to trade the Norris Trophy winner. However, finding the right deal to get a fair return on a player of Karlsson’s caliber is proving difficult and talks between Ottawa GM Pierre Dorion and both the Tampa Bay Lightning and Dallas Stars have reportedly broken down. The noise surrounding a potential Karlsson trade has died down significantly over the past few days.

Another trade target whose apparent availability is being downplayed in Edmonton Oilers winger Milan Lucic. Early in the off-season, there was rampant speculation that a Lucic trade was inevitable. Some said that the team wanted to move on from the remaining five years and $30MM of the underachieving forward’s contract, while others said that it was Lucic who was unhappy in Edmonton and was seeking a trade. Both sides have denied claims that they are seeking a separation, but as most trade rumors go – where there’s smoke, there’s fire.

There’s also Max Pacioretty, who was close to being traded during draft weekend but ended up remaining with the Montreal Canadiens. The Habs captain is coming off of a down year and is in the final year of his contract, making his trade value the lowest that it has been in years. Yet, it has continually been reported that the Canadiens are listening on offers. Those reports have grown quiet over the last week or so and it could be that Montreal has simply opted to retain one of the faces of their franchise, but don’t rule out the possibility of a deal just yet.

As potential Karlsson, Lucic, and Pacioretty deals have lost some steam, Columbus Blue Jackets’ star Artemi Panarin has emerged as a popular trade target. Panarin, to his credit, was honest with the organization that he remains unsure if he will be willing to sign a long-term extension to stay in Columbus before his contract expires after next season. As a result, GM Jarmo Kekalainen and company have begun to explore any possible trade scenarios should they choose to mitigate the risk of losing Panarin for nothing as a free agent by dealing him away. However, Panarin is still a young and highly productive player who hasn’t flat out said he won’t resign with the Blue Jackets and the team may be understandably cautious in making a decision on what to do with him.

Another situation playing out between a team who would rather hold on to their asset is the Minnesota Wild and winger Jason Zucker. Zucker filed for salary arbitration this off-season and, after a career season, is due a major bump on his previous $2MM salary. However, the Wild have a surplus of NHL-caliber forwards and a likely shortage of cap space needed to sign both Zucker and young defenseman Matt Dumba. Dumba and the blue line are the priority, potentially making Zucker expendable. Minnesota will do what they can to keep him, but may not have a choice but to get what they can for the 26-year-old scorer.

Finally, there are the Carolina Hurricanes. Last month, there was not hotter name on the rumor mill than forward Jeff Skinner. Approaching the NHL Draft, several insider went so far as to guarantee that he would be traded in the coming days. More than two weeks later, Skinner remains a Hurricane. There is surely a market for Skinner, but the team and new GM Don Waddell have stated that they simply haven’t received an offer yet that they were comfortable with. Carolina clearly values what Skinner brings offensive and the Hurricanes need to be better at scoring next season. Where they have strength and depth is the blue line, yet they have managed to add both Dougie Hamilton and Calvin de Haan this off-season. The team is now overloaded with talented defensemen, especially on the right side, and there is an expectation that veteran leader Justin Faulk is likely going to be odd man out and interest is high in the All-Star.

There are many trade possibilities available, including deals that include more than one of these players, but assuming otherwise: Who is most likely to be the next big name traded this off-season?

Poll: Who Will Be The Centerpiece Of The Next Big Trade?
Erik Karlsson 41.30% (871 votes)
Artemi Panarin 16.12% (340 votes)
Max Pacioretty 14.56% (307 votes)
Justin Faulk 13.80% (291 votes)
Jeff Skinner 8.11% (171 votes)
Jason Zucker 3.75% (79 votes)
Milan Lucic 2.37% (50 votes)
Total Votes: 2,109

Mobile users, click here to vote.

Islanders Must Focus On Moving Forward After Tavares

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When the New York Islanders lost John Tavares, the franchise found itself in a worse situation than it had hoped. The team that struggled a year ago on defense and in goal now lost their top scorer and seem to lack identity (except in the front office). The team will likely make Calder Trophy winner Mathew Barzal the new face of the franchise, but without Tavares, there remains a significant hole in their lineup.

While it seems likely Barzal will replace Tavares as the team’s top center, the real question is who will take over as the team’s No. 2 center? One positive note for New York is that the team has almost $20MM in available cap space after Tavares opted to go to Toronto and that’s after the signings of Valtteri Filppula, Leo Komarov, Robin Lehner and Tom Kuhnhackl as well as trading for Matt Martin. Regardless, none of those players are candidates to fill that No. 2 center position. The team does have restricted free agent Brock Nelson as a candidate to fill that role, but his status is up in the air.

The Athletic’s Shayna Goldman (subscription required) suggests if the Islanders want to make some type of impact move to suggest to their fan base that they are ready to move on (because bringing in Filppula, Komorov, Kuhnhackl, Lehner and Martin didn’t accomplish that), they must look to the trade market where there are a number of interesting names that the team could look to acquire, especially at the center position to show they are moving forward.

The top name is interesting enough as Goldman suggests that New York looks at the Ottawa Senators who are looking to cast off players left and right. Already having moved on from Mike Hoffman and in current trade talks with Erik Karlsson, the scribe writes the Islanders could attempt to make an offer to pry centers Matt Duchene or Jean-Gabriel Pageau away.

While Duchene would probably cost the Islanders quite a bit, he could potentially be a reasonable replacement for Tavares. Even though Ottawa gave up a lot to acquire Duchene less than a year ago, they may be ready to move on from him as he will be a free agent after this season and he might not want to return after having to endure the many problems that Ottawa has dealt with in the past year. However in New York, the team could match him with players like Anders Lee, Jordan Eberle or Josh Bailey and get solid production from him and the team would have the cap room to lock him up. The only downside to acquiring Duchene (despite the likely high cost) would be the team would have to sign him as well as Lee and Eberle next season as all three would be unrestricted free agents for the 2019-20 season. Pageau would be a much cheaper option, but lacks much upside if they want to use him as a second-line center.

One other option would be to pry Tyler Johnson away from the Tampa Bay Lightning, especially with the team attempting to clear out cap space to accommodate Karlsson. Johnson would provide significant value as a second-line center as well, but is locked up for six years at $5MM AAV, so they would be able to hold onto him for a long time.

While finding a replacement for Tavares, the team must also attempt to fix their other issues as they’ve done little to address their defense or goaltending. Adding Robin Lehner helps a little, but after the 26-year-old suffered through a disastrous season (3.01 GAA and a .908 save percentage), a Lehner-Thomas Greiss combination doesn’t sound particularly thrilling. The defense also needs help. The team lost Calvin de Haan to Carolina, although they did bring back Thomas Hickey. Although the team has high hopes that Ryan Pulock is ready to move into a top-four role immediately, his defense has always been suspect, so he isn’t likely to improve the Islanders defensive deficiencies. Andrew Gross of Newsday writes that the team should consider looking into acquiring Justin Faulk from the Carolina Hurricanes as he would provide that stability and would look good as the No. 1 piece along with Hickey, Pulock, Johnny Boychuk and Nick Leddy.

Regardless, with few quality options available to them on the free agent market, the team likely has little choice to make a deal.

 

 

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