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Offseason Keys 2019

Offseason Keys: Minnesota Wild

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While the playoffs are well underway, many teams have already started their offseason planning.  What storylines lie ahead around the league in what is shaping up to be a likely busy NHL offseason?  Next up in our Offseason Keys series is a look at the Minnesota Wild.

After being ousted in the first round for the third year in a row, Minnesota decided to make a change in GM heading into the 2018-19 season as Paul Fenton replaced Chuck Fletcher.  However, the roster stayed largely intact as the year got underway and the results were similar to what they were before as they were largely treading water.  Fenton made a couple of selling moves in the second half but the Wild were still in playoff contention heading into the final weeks of the season before ultimately coming up short.  After a quiet summer last year, it’s hard to imagine it will be quiet again this time around.  Here are some of the keys to their offseason.

Pick A Direction

The Wild spent a good chunk of last season sitting in the middle.  They weren’t good enough to contend but they were too far away from really bottoming out either.  An early swap of Nino Niederreiter for Victor Rask didn’t move the needle too much for them.

As the trade deadline approached, word came out that ownership was open to being sellers.  Considering their place in the standings, Fenton opted to move out Mikael Granlund and Charlie Coyle in separate trades.  However, the focus in both swaps was getting back players that were ready to contribute right away in Kevin Fiala and Ryan Donato.

As a result, Minnesota is still sort of stuck in the middle.  They’re not among the contenders in the Central Division but for those hoping that they’ll look to rebuild through the draft, they’re probably not among the weakest teams in the conference either.

The Wild have been treading water for several years now.  It’s getting to be time for them to change those fortunes.  Given ownership’s openness to at least retooling, it’s certainly possible that they could continue what they started at the trade deadline but the focus may need to change to future assets over ones that can necessarily step in right away.  If not, expect them to be buyers and they do have some cap space to work with.  While their plan isn’t known just yet, it’s likely that there will be changes coming one way or the other.

Zucker’s Future

Technically, Fenton had one other trade on deadline day that wound up falling through in the end.  Winger Jason Zucker was believed to be on his way to Calgary but the deal didn’t materialize which made for an interesting situation as he was forced to remain with Minnesota for the stretch run.  Now that there won’t be a firm deadline to get the paperwork for a trade in, do the two sides try again?

Even if that deal doesn’t come back together, it’s likely that Minnesota will be entertaining other trade options for him.  He didn’t provide the best of returns in the first season of his five-year, $27.5MM contract as his output dipped to 21 goals and 21 assists in 2018-19.  However, he had 111 points in the previous two seasons combined so it’s clear that there’s some potential upside to acquiring him.

One element that could potentially expedite things is his partial no-trade clause.  Effective July 1st, Zucker can block a trade to ten teams which will lower their trade options.  Accordingly, if there is a trade to be made, it’s one that will likely get done sooner rather than later.

Spurgeon Extension

Shortly after the season ended, Fenton indicated that a top priority for them this summer will be signing defenseman Jared Spurgeon to a long-term contract extension.  For his part, Spurgeon shared the enthusiasm for getting a new deal done early.

His current contract was certainly a risky one as when he signed for four years and $20.75MM, he hadn’t quite established himself as a full-time top-four defender.  That changed in a hurry.  He has become one of the more consistent offensive blueliners in the league, averaging 39 points over the past three seasons while seeing his ice time jump to over 24 minutes a night.

All of a sudden, his contract is a bargain and the 29-year-old is in line to land a considerable raise on his $5.1875MM AAV.  Of course, if the team plans to retool, there’s a case to be made that they’re better off trading Spurgeon but it doesn’t appear that will be the case.  Fortunately for the Wild, they don’t have a whole lot tied up in their back end long-term beyond Ryan Suter and Matt Dumba (Jonas Brodin is signed through 2020-21) so they’ll have no difficulty fitting in a raise on a lengthy pact for Spurgeon on their books moving forward.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: Philadelphia Flyers

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While the playoffs are well underway, many teams have already started their offseason planning.  What storylines lie ahead around the league in what is shaping up to be a likely busy NHL offseason?  Next up in our Offseason Keys series is a look at the Philadelphia Flyers.

There has been plenty of change in Philadelphia over the past several months.  Ron Hextall was dismissed as GM with Chuck Fletcher taking over.  After a little while, he then let Dave Hakstol go as head coach, promoting Scott Gordon in an interim role.  While this was all happening, the Flyers were battling a litany of injuries between the pipes and underachieving overall.  As a result, they missed the postseason which has led to more off-ice changes.  Gordon is headed back to the AHL with Alain Vigneault taking over as head coach while two new assistants in Michel Therrien and Mike Yeo have been brought in.  Now with all of that off-ice work done, here are the on-ice keys for Fletcher and the Flyers this summer.

Add An Impact Forward

Last summer, James van Riemsdyk was brought in to bolster their attack.  While he didn’t have a bad season statistically (27-21-48 in 66 games), his addition didn’t have the desired effect as Philadelphia went from a team that was slightly above the midpoint offensively to slightly below.  The good news for the Flyers is that they have plenty of cap space to work with so they will be able to dip back into the UFA market again if they so desire.

After adding a winger last offseason, there’s a good chance that Fletcher will prioritize adding a center this time around.  While Sean Couturier has emerged as a quality top liner, there are some question marks behind him.  Claude Giroux can play down the middle but appears to be more effective on the wing at this stage of his career.  Nolan Patrick has the upside to get to that level one day but after a 31-point sophomore season, he’s probably not ready for that role yet.  Scott Laughton had a career year but he’s probably better served as a bottom six pivot.

While Matt Duchene and Joe Pavelski sit atop the list of unrestricted free agent centers, Brock Nelson and Kevin Hayes could also make some sense as second line options so there are a few options to choose from.  Landing a player from that group would go a long way towards really deepening Philadelphia’s attack for 2019-20 and beyond.

Defensive Decisions

Coming into the season, Ivan Provorov appeared to be in line for an expensive second contract.  He had just completed a dominant sophomore campaign, one where he looked like the potential number one defenseman that every team covets.  He could still ascend to that level but his 2018-19 season saw him take a bit of a step back, creating some questions as he enters restricted free agency.

What is the better route to go?  Does a bridge deal make more sense for Provorov now with the hopes that he’ll get a much better contract a couple of years from now?  Does Philly want to wait to lock him up or are they going to push for a long-term pact right away?  Considering their cap room, it seems reasonable to think that they will try to skip the bridge and do a long-term contract but it may make more sense for the 22-year-old to take a short deal and look for the bigger payday in a year or two.

They’re also going to have to make a call on Shayne Gostisbehere who had been involved in trade speculation leading up to the deadline.  His point output dipped considerably in 2018-19, going from 65 the year before to just 37.  He won’t be winning any awards for being the best defender in his own end but his offensive upside alone is enough to yield plenty of suitors while his contract ($4.5MM AAV through 2022-23) is also enticing.  Fletcher will need to determine if he’s part of the future and if not, he could bring back a sizable return on the trade market.

Backup For Hart

Heading into the season, it looked like the Flyers were going to be able to give Carter Hart some time in the minors while Brian Elliott and Michal Neuvirth would hold down the fort in Philadelphia.  That didn’t come close to working out as planned as by mid-December, the rookie was in the NHL and was there to stay as he took over the number one job.

Now, the Flyers have to find a backup for him and it’s not as simple as some other searches around the league will be.  Given Hart’s inexperience, they’re going to be looking for someone that has some experience working with a younger netminder while still being able to play a significant workload if the youngster struggles or is injured next season.

With that in mind, Fletcher brought in Cam Talbot before the deadline in what looked like a tryout for that role.  Instead, he only made three starts down the stretch so he may not wind up being the answer after all.  Elliott could also be an option to bring back while there are several other veterans that will be available as well.  While it’s only a backup goalie, finding the right one to work with Hart potentially for multiple seasons makes it a bit more important than a typical search for a number two.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: Vancouver Canucks

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While the playoffs are well underway, many teams have already started their offseason planning.  What storylines lie ahead around the league in what is shaping up to be a likely busy NHL offseason?  Next up in our Offseason Keys series is a look at the Vancouver Canucks.

Vancouver entered the season with hopes of making some progress in their path back to playoff contention.  They improved on their 2017-18 performance by eight points despite a lengthy list of injuries while Elias Pettersson had a Calder-worthy year and the Canucks now have a strong one-two punch down the middle with him and Bo Horvat.  However, they were still on the outside looking in so GM Jim Benning will have a lot of work to do this summer.  Here are some of the items he needs to get accomplished.

Add Defensive Help

While a full season from Quinn Hughes and the hopeful return to health for Olli Juolevi provide some optimism for their future back end, their current defense corps isn’t good enough to contend.  That was the case this past season when they had Alexander Edler, a pending unrestricted free agent, in the fold.

Edler missed 26 games due to injury and still had one of the better seasons of his career while logging a career-best 24:34 per night.  It’s a weak defensive free agent market on the left side so if he becomes available, there will be competition for his services.  However, he is loyal to Vancouver and wants to stay which is cause for some optimism.  However, a no-move clause that would protect him from Seattle two years from now for expansion appears to be a sticking point.

Even if they get a deal done though, work still needs to be done.  Chris Tanev is a useful stay-at-home defender but can’t stay healthy while Ben Hutton and Troy Stecher are capable two-way players but neither are full-fledged top four options at this point in time.  Hughes has plenty of upside but it will take some time for him to reach it.

Benning should be on the lookout for someone that, at the very least, can hold down a spot in the top four and bolster their ability to play defense by committee where a better third pairing can help offset lacking the top options.  However, as much as he has stated that he doesn’t expect to be shopping at the top of the market, landing a top pairing player would fill a long-standing hole for this team so that’s one area that he needs to make an exception for.

Deal For Boeser

There is a bumper crop of high-end players that are coming off of their entry-level deals and will be due for significant raises in the coming months.  The Canucks have one of those players in Brock Boeser although his case is slightly different than the others.

With Vancouver’s willingness to sign players after the college season has ended, they’re allowing players to get to restricted free agency a year earlier.  That’s the case with Boeser whose rookie season wound up consisting of just nine games.  Between that and some injuries along the way over the past two years, he has just 140 career NHL regular season contests.  In other words, he doesn’t even have two seasons of NHL experience under his belt while most of the other prominent RFAs have three.

As a result, he’s not going to get the top money compared to some of the others on the market.  That said, his deal could be one that other agents refer to as somewhat of a precedent-setter; if Boeser gets X with basically two years of NHL experience, their client is worth a couple million more than that.  After the season, the 22-year-old’s agent indicated that he’s open to any type of deal, be it a bridge pact, a max-term contract, or anything in between.  While many expect some of the RFA discussions to drag out closer to training camp, this one should get done well before then.

Add A Top Six Winger

While their top two centers are set in place for several years, the situation isn’t as rosy when it comes to the wings beyond Boeser.  Most of the others in place are either underachievers or young players with some upside but have several question marks as well.  Most of that group is either already signed for next season or under team control as a restricted free agent so there isn’t going to be much turnover as things stand.

Given Benning’s hesitance to spend big in free agency, it’s likely that they’ll target players that require shorter commitments.  Unfortunately for them, that’s not going to move the needle very much either.  Players like that would represent a small upgrade on some of their current options but it won’t provide a significant boost to an attack that finished 25th overall in 2018-19.

It wouldn’t be surprising to see Vancouver turn to the trade market to try to help fill this vacancy.  In particular, finding someone in a similar age group to their young core would be ideal.  That player would also be cost-controlled which is important given the big-ticket deals that are going to be on the horizon over the next couple of years.  The Canucks have plenty of depth on the wing but at some point, it’s going to need to be consolidated.  That time may very well be this offseason.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: Anaheim Ducks

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While the playoffs are well underway, many teams have already started their offseason planning.  What storylines lie ahead around the league in what is shaping up to be a likely busy NHL offseason?  Next up in our Offseason Keys series is a look at the Anaheim Ducks.

Through the first half of the season, things were looking relatively good in Anaheim.   John Gibson was playing at an elite level and while sustaining it wasn’t likely, the Ducks eventually had to start scoring, right?  That didn’t happen.  Instead, they went into a massive tailspin, one that firing Randy Carlyle did little to solve.  As a result, GM Bob Murray will have a lot on his plate this summer.  Here are some of the things they need to accomplish.

Hire A Head Coach

After Murray took over midseason for Carlyle, he made it clear that he had no intention of sticking around in the role on a long-term basis.  Accordingly, Anaheim is in the market for a new head coach.  It has been speculated that Dallas Eakins, the bench boss for their AHL affiliate in San Diego, is a contender for the position and the fact that the Gulls are still in the playoffs will likely drag out this search.

In the meantime, Murray needs to decide if he wants an inexperienced coach (Eakins only has 113 games of head coaching experience in the NHL) or a veteran.  While there are young players with promise in the system, this is still a veteran-laden team with a desire to win in the short-term.  From that standpoint, a more experienced coach makes some sense.

However, there aren’t a lot of experienced head coaches on the market at the moment; Philadephia hired two of the ones that were available to be assistants earlier this week.  Dave Tippett, an advisor in Seattle, is the most prominent option but the list is pretty short after that though Todd Richards could be in the mix.

There are some intriguing first-time options available though.  Sheldon Keefe (Toronto) has been suggested as a candidate for several spots over the past couple of years and while he signed an extension recently, it does contain an NHL out clause.  Mike Vellucci (Carolina) has had two straight strong seasons at the AHL level and has a lengthy background at the junior level as well.  Brad Shaw (Columbus) is in the mix for Ottawa’s head coach position and has 13 years of coaching experience at the NHL level which could get him some consideration here.

Given that shaking up the core of the roster is going to be difficult (more on that shortly), finding the right coach could very well be their most important move this offseason.  It looks like it’s going to be a while yet before it’s made.

Free Up Cap Space

The Ducks have nearly $73MM tied up in just 16 players for next season per CapFriendly and even though the potential exists for Ryan Kesler ($6.875MM) and Patrick Eaves ($3.15MM) to be headed for LTIR given the question marks surrounding their ability to play again, there still isn’t a lot of flexibility for Murray to work with.

One player that’s going to likely see his name come up in trade discussions is center Adam Henrique.  His new five-year contract with a $5.825MM AAV and a partial no-trade clause comes into effect on July 1st and his first full season with the Ducks wasn’t great.  He didn’t have as much of an impact offensively and may be better served in a third line role than on a second unit.  If that’s the best role for him in Anaheim, they’re going to be overpaying him considerably and given some of the bloated contracts on their books (in particular, Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf have two more years left at $8.625MM and $8.25MM respectively), Henrique may be one of the more movable ones.

Given the offensive struggles that existed all season, there is clearly a need to shake up the forward group.  To do that, at least one big contract will need to be on the move in the weeks to come.  There is help coming from their prospect pool but those players are a year or two away still from really locking down a top-six role so while one or two may get a chance, that alone can’t be the shakeup in itself.

Add An Impact Defenseman

Considering that they’ve spent the last couple of years dealing impact defenders away in Sami Vatanen, Shea Theodore, and Brandon Montour, this may seem a little strange on the surface.  However, beyond a solid top three in Cam Fowler, Hampus Lindholm, and Josh Manson, there are a lot of question marks.

Between Brendan Guhle, Jacob Larsson, and Josh Mahura, there are quality young players in the mix that should be regular NHL players as soon as next season.  However, their NHL ice time has been restricted thus far to limited roles on the bottom pairing.  If no changes are made to their back end, one of those three is going from a split NHL/AHL season to a full-time spot in the top four.  While one of those players should be able to step into that void down the road, it would be risky to count on them to jump in just yet.

The good news for the Ducks is that with that group nearing readiness for full-time NHL duty, they don’t have to shop at the top end of the market.  A short-term veteran stop gap is really all they need and if they do wind up moving out one of their pricier forwards, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them target this type of player in return.  That would certainly solidify the defense, provide a nice bridge to the younger core, and if things go off the rails again, then that blueliner would make for an intriguing trade chip closer to the trade deadline.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: Edmonton Oilers

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While the playoffs are well underway, many teams have already started their offseason planning.  What storylines lie ahead around the league in what is shaping up to be a likely busy NHL offseason?  Next up in our Offseason Keys series is a look at the Edmonton Oilers.

2018-19 was a season to forget in Edmonton.  Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins all had career years and yet they were still well out of postseason contention.  A coaching change didn’t fix much and neither did relieving GM Peter Chiarelli of his duties.  Despite having a pair of elite forwards, this team still needs a lot of work.  Ken Holland is expected to take over as their new general manager and here are some of the areas he will be working on this summer.

Add Goaltending Help

Chiarelli had plenty of faith in Mikko Koskinen who showed some flashes of dominance mixed in with his general inconsistency in his first full NHL campaign.  In fact, he had enough confidence in his netminder to give him a three-year, $13.5MM extension which wound up being his final act as GM as he was fired shortly thereafter.  Koskinen got plenty of playing time down the stretch but it’s clear that he’s not ready to be a full-fledged number one goalie.

It was a little surprising that Anthony Stolarz, acquired in the Cam Talbot trade, didn’t get much of a look after being acquired; the fact that his usage was so limited suggests that it’s likely that they won’t look to bring the pending Group Six free agent back.  Shane Starrett has fared well with AHL Bakersfield this season but he’s only in his first year as a starter down there so bringing him up as a full-time platoon option would be risky.  Veteran Al Montoya won’t be back either.

Accordingly, they’ll have to look outside the organization to find a partner for Koskinen.  The challenge here will be deciding what the right price point is.  While they need someone that’s capable of playing at least 30 games (and could benefit from that player pushing for the number one role), their salary cap constraints and other holes to fill may force them to look for a more affordable option.

Bring In Scoring Wingers

With McDavid, Draisaitl, and Nugent-Hopkins down the middle, the Oilers have an enviable group of centers.  However, it’s the exact opposite situation when it comes to the wing.  They had one winger hit the 20-goal mark this past season and that was Alex Chiasson, who was able to earn a cheap contract and then surprisingly scored more goals than he did the previous two seasons combined.  Not many expect him to repeat his 17.9 shooting percentage if he winds up re-signing.

Beyond that, it wasn’t too pretty.  Zack Kassian scored 15 goals but was inconsistent throughout the season.  Milan Lucic had just six tallies, not the return on a $6MM AAV they were hoping for and with a virtual buyout-proof contract that has four years left on it, no help is on the horizon there.  Youngsters Jesse Puljujarvi and Kailer Yamamoto both underachieved while Tobias Rieder, a capable winger in previous seasons, managed to go the entire year without scoring.  Drake Caggiula had the third-highest goal total among Edmonton wingers and he was dealt to Chicago back in December in a deal they’d love to have a mulligan on considering that Brandon Manning has already been buried in the minors.

While it’s far too early to give up on Puljujarvi and Yamamoto, it’s also going to be difficult to count on them for substantial contributions next season.  Tyler Benson had a nice rookie professional season and could be in the mix as well but it’s hard to put high expectations on him.  There are teams that could stand to add a top-six winger or two.  There’s a case to be made that Edmonton needs to add four of them.

Keep Reshaping The Back End

One way to overcome some shaky goaltending is to bolster the defense corps.  Edmonton has quietly built up a decent group of young defenders headlined by Evan Bouchard and Ethan Bear but they’re not ready to take on big roles next season.  Andrej Sekera, if he can stay healthy this summer, could take on a larger role than he had in the back half of the campaign but given his injury troubles, counting on that happening is risky.

The Oilers have a trio of core pieces in place in Oscar Klefbom, Darnell Nurse, and Adam Larsson.  None of them are true number ones but they’re capable defenders with a bit of upside.  That’s a nice foundation to work with and as Bouchard and other youngsters get closer to being NHL ready, they should have a decent group to work with.  That may be a couple of years from happening though as there will be growing pains for those rookies along the way.

As for the others, Kris Russell is overpaid in his current role and could be trade bait.  Matt Benning had a limited role in 2018-19 and could also make sense as trade bait.  Neither of them will bring a top-four defenseman back but they may be able to add a winger for one of them.

Despite their poor record, Edmonton is clearly in win-now mode.  That means they’ll need to add a top-four defender to give them some insurance for injuries and really bolster the group in front of Koskinen.  While there is light at the end of the tunnel for their blueline, it still needs a newcomer or two if they plan to make an impact in the Pacific Division next season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: New York Rangers

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While the playoffs are well underway, many teams have already started their offseason planning.  What storylines lie ahead around the league in what is shaping up to be a likely busy NHL offseason?  Next up in our Offseason Keys series is a look at the New York Rangers.

Back in the 2017-18 season, the Rangers announced that they were entering a rebuilding phase so it didn’t come as a surprise to many that they missed the playoffs by a considerable margin this past season.  New head coach David Quinn got an opportunity to play several young players and despite a thinned out roster, they were still competitive most nights.  They enter the offseason with the number two pick after securing a victory in the Draft Lottery but there are several other keys to their offseason.

Kreider Extension Talks

Several impact veterans have been shipped out over the last couple of seasons as they were in or approaching the final year of their respective contracts.  The next in line that they need to make a decision on is winger Chris Kreider who will be in the final year of his contract next season.

The 28-year-old has been inconsistent in recent years.  At times, his combination of size and speed makes him a real threat as a power forward but at others, he has been more of a perimeter-oriented player that has a penchant for cold streaks.  That complicates things a little bit for GM Jeff Gorton.  There’s no denying that he can be a dominant player at times but because of the highs and lows of his play, how much of a raise on his current $4.625MM AAV can they realistically justify?

If the two sides quickly realize that they’re too far apart on a contract, Kreider is someone who could plausibly hit the trade block this offseason over waiting to make an in-season deal as they did with Kevin Hayes and Mats Zuccarello.  There would be no shortage of interest around the league in his services though it’s worth noting that he has an 11-team no-trade list.  The sooner they find out what it’s going to cost, the better it is for them, especially with the cap space at their disposal this summer.  Speaking of which…

Spend Wisely

As a result of moving out several veterans recently, New York has plenty of cap space to work with for next season.  CapFriendly pegs them at just under $64MM committed to 19 players already for next season with winger Pavel Buchnevich standing as likely the most notable restricted free agent to re-sign.  In other words, they’re going to have a big chunk of cap space at their disposal in July.

While some expect them to go after a big name player or two, there are some potential drawbacks to that approach.  Doing so will limit the ice time of their younger players while also limiting their flexibility to lock those players up long-term after as their payroll room will be limited.  On the other hand, it’s hard to pass up the opportunity to add a core piece or two when the opportunity presents itself.

Knowing that a potential new deal for Kreider will be pricey and that extension talks for promising youngsters Lias Andersson, Filip Chytil, and Brett Howden are only a year away from occurring, Gorton likely won’t look to do long-term deals with all of his potential targets.  Finding a buffer player or two to assist in the short-term will also likely be on their target list.  The Rangers have been big spenders in the past and have the potential to do so again this summer which will undoubtedly make them a team to watch for.

Rebuild The Defense

Back when they dealt Ryan McDonagh to Tampa Bay in 2017-18, the status of New York’s back end wasn’t ideal.  There was a mixture of underachieving veterans and unproven (but promising) youngsters.  Fast forward to today and nothing has really changed.

Marc Staal is a serviceable stay-at-home player but is vastly overpaid for his role.  Kevin Shattenkirk has underachieved considerably after being a big signing just two summers ago.  Brady Skjei had an up-and-down year.  Youngsters Neal Pionk, Anthony DeAngelo, Libor Hajek, and the just-acquired Adam Fox have upside but there are still question marks.  There’s the making of a capable defense corps in this group but they will need some reinforcements to take a step forward.

If Gorton decides to look to add some veteran players this summer, adding a top-four defender needs to be at or near the top of the priority list.  That will take a bit of pressure off some of the younger players and lower the ice time for the underachievers at the same time.  New York was near the bottom of the league in goals allowed this past season and adding to that back end would go a long way in helping turn their fortunes around.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: Buffalo Sabres

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While the playoffs are now underway, many teams have already started their offseason planning.  What storylines lie ahead around the league in what is shaping up to be a likely busy NHL offseason?  Next up in our Offseason Keys series is a look at the Buffalo Sabres.

After a rocky 2017-18 season, the Sabres shook up their roster and had expectations of improvement in 2018-19.  While they did earn 14 more points than they did a year ago, they still missed the postseason by a significant margin once again which means they are once again in for an offseason of upheaval.  Here’s what to watch for in Buffalo.

Hire A New Head Coach

One of the few consistent things the Sabres have had in recent years is coaching turnover.  Since they let Lindy Ruff go during the 2012-13 season, they’ve had four different head coaches.  That will soon become five as Phil Housley was let go at the end of the season after just two years with the team.  (That puts him tied for the longest-tenured head coach in Buffalo since Ruff’s departure.)

Obviously, they need to hire a replacement but the question is what type of coach should they be looking for?  They’ve tried a first-time bench boss.  They’ve tried a veteran coach.  They’ve even tried bringing back someone they fired 16 years earlier.  Nothing has worked so far.

Buffalo is a fairly young team with only four regulars over the age of 30 in their lineup.  With that in mind, it could make sense to bring a coach with experience working with younger players as there is some teaching to be done.  On the other hand, this team has lacked structure and attention to detail and certain veterans have proven themselves to be capable of instilling that in a team.

Not surprisingly, GM Jason Botterill appears to be casting a wide net.  They have been linked to several different coaches including veterans Dave Tippett, Jacques Martin, and Todd Richards as well as Sweden’s Rikard Gronborg who hasn’t coached in North America since serving as an assistant with WHL Spokane in 2004-05 but has plenty of international experience.  With only a few vacancies remaining, Botterill can be patient in his search but if this pick winds up yielding results like Housley’s tenure, he may not get to make another choice.

Re-Sign Or Replace Skinner

Jeff Skinner was a big part of Buffalo’s early season success before things really started to go off the rails.  The winger got off to a very strong start with 30 goals over his first 44 games but cooled off considerably, scoring just 10 over the last 38 contests.  Still, he hit the 40-goal mark for the first time in his career which will certainly have him in the driver’s seat as he approaches unrestricted free agency.

By all accounts, negotiations on a contract extension have been ongoing for several months now but the two sides are clearly still apart on getting something done.  Clearly, the difference between his first and second halves will complicate the discussions.  On top of that, the longer this drags out, the greater the temptation to test the market is likely to become.  As a result, this has to be Botterill’s top priority in terms of player personnel decisions.

If they can’t come to a deal, there are a handful of other high-scoring free agents available that they could shift their focus to.  Alternatively, Buffalo still has an extra first-round pick (7th and 29th) so they could put one in play to try to acquire a younger option.  One thing is for certain though – they will be in even tougher shape if they can’t re-sign or replace Skinner in the coming months so there is a lot of pressure to get something done.

Goalie Decisions

Goaltending has been a question mark for a while in Buffalo and while it was better this past season, it’s still a question moving forward.  In particular, has Linus Ullmark shown enough to be counted on as a viable long-term starter?  He had some strong moments but also some particularly rough ones as he played to a .905 SV% and a 3.11 GAA over 37 appearances.  He’s only 25 and there’s still some upside but he’s also now eligible for salary arbitration so he’ll be looking at a big raise from the $800K salary he received.

Last summer, the Sabres brought in Carter Hutton in the hopes that he could carry over his strong performance in St. Louis to become the front half of a platoon.  His numbers weren’t much better than Ullmark’s overall and at 33, he’s not a viable long-term starter either way.  Is this a viable tandem to push them back into postseason contention?

If Botterill believes that the answer to either of the questions posed is no, then it wouldn’t be surprising to see Buffalo wade into the free agent market for a starting goaltender.  While the development of their young defenders – a group bolstered by Brandon Montour’s addition near the trade deadline – will undoubtedly help their fortunes moving forward, that alone won’t be enough to move the Sabres from being near the bottom of the league in goals allowed to even being more of a mid-pack team.  It was hoped that Hutton and Ullmark could shore things up but their work between the pipes may not be done after all.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: Detroit Red Wings

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While the playoffs are now underway, many teams have already started their offseason planning.  What storylines lie ahead around the league in what is shaping up to be a likely busy NHL offseason?  Next up in our Offseason Keys series is a look at the Detroit Red Wings.

Just a few years ago, the thought of Detroit missing the playoffs in three straight years was crazy.  They were the model of consistency around the league but all good things must come to an end.  However, they’re dealing with the drawbacks of keeping many veterans from previous years around and now find themselves attempting to rebuild.  They took a big step in that process last week with the hiring of Steve Yzerman as their new GM but here’s what else to watch for in Detroit.

Free Up Contract Slots

By now, most teams have signed a good chunk of their CHL draft picks from the 2017 draft class.  They may have one or two players left but not too many.  Then there’s Detroit, who have five players they must sign by June 1st or lose the rights to.  They’ll have to decide quickly whether or not to keep them or let them go back into the draft.  The list is headlined by a pair of third rounders in Lane Zablocki and Zach Gallant.

Perhaps part of the delay here is Detroit’s contract situation.  They already have 38 of 50 contracts committed for next season without factoring in any of those five aforementioned players or any of their upcoming free agents (seven unrestricted and seven more that are restricted).  Obviously, not all will return but if even half do and the team adds a few others in free agency, trade, or signing some of their June 1 players, they appear to be trending towards being right against the limit next season.

While that’s not a completely untenable situation to be in, it’s far from desirable either as it can limit their ability to make in-season moves.  With that in mind, expect Yzerman to try to clear out some of the clutter and give themselves some flexibility to work with heading into the summer.

Rebuild The Back End

Defense has been a position of concern in Detroit for a while and it really became noticeable this season.  Granted, they lost over 130 man-games to injury but there are question marks all over their back end.  Youngsters like Filip Hronek and Dennis Cholowski had some strong moments but had some shaky ones as well.  That’s understandable given their inexperience but there were plenty of shaky plays from the veterans which played a big role in them finishing in the bottom five in goals allowed.

The good news is that there aren’t a lot of long-term commitments.  Danny DeKeyser has three years left on his contract but the other veterans are either unrestricted free agents this summer or have one year remaining (Mike Green, Jonathan Ericsson, Trevor Daley, and Madison Bowey).  Niklas Kronwall is a free agent and while it looked like retirement was a likely option for him, he logged nearly 20 minutes a night and could still be in the plans for 2019-20.

The short-term commitments give Yzerman some flexibility to work but a lot of work needs to be done.  The Red Wings can’t bring back the same back end if they want to have better results so it wouldn’t be surprising to see them try to shop one of their veterans with one year left.  However, Green, Ericsson, and Daley all have some form of trade protection in their contracts which could complicate things.

Over the next couple of years, they will be able to backfill some of the looming departures with some of their prospects but they will still need to add from outside of the organization.  With that in mind, expect Detroit to take a look at some blueliners on the open market at the very least this summer but it wouldn’t be surprising to see them try to acquire a younger defender via the trade route as well.

Create Cap Flexibility

While Detroit has seen their streak of playoff appearances come to an end, their streak of years being right up against the Upper Limit has continued; they used nearly $7MM of LTIR relief to remain in compliance with the salary cap in 2018-19 which creates the potential for a small bonus overage if any of their entry-level players reached any games played bonuses.  With Henrik Zetterberg and Johan Franzen both under contract for 2019-20, that’s not likely to change.

On top of carrying those two deals for players that have effectively retired, the Red Wings also have several other bad contracts on the books up front.  Frans Nielsen has underachieved since coming over from the Islanders and still has three years at $5.25MM per year left.  Justin Abdelkader’s production dipped to just 19 points this season which is not a good return on a contract that pays $4.25MM per season through 2022-23.  Even Darren Helm’s $3.85MM AAV for two more years is a bit high for his role.  Finding a way to move out one of those contracts would go a long way towards cleaning up their contract situation but as is the case with their veteran blueliners, all three of these players have no-trade protection in their deals as well.

Andreas Athanasiou and Anthony Mantha each have one year left on their bridge contracts before becoming restricted free agents with salary arbitration rights in the 2020 offseason.  It’s going to cost considerably more than the $6.3MM the two make combined to lock them up long-term so next summer essentially works as a soft deadline to get at least one of their bad deals off the books.  If they can do it before then and help their chances for 2019-20, it’d be even better for them.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: New Jersey Devils

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While the playoffs are now underway, many teams have already started their offseason planning.  What storylines lie ahead around the league in what is shaping up to be a likely busy NHL offseason?  Next up in our Offseason Keys series is a look at the New Jersey Devils.

After a surprising run to the playoffs last year, expectations were elevated in New Jersey for 2018-19.  However, injuries to key players and ineffectiveness between the pipes had them in the basement early on and they never really recovered.  They received one piece of good news last week as they were victorious in the Draft Lottery, moving up two spots to land the number one selection.  Who they take with that pick is one big decision they’ll have to make; here’s what else to watch for in New Jersey.

Add Defensive Help

This was on the list of keys last year as well but the Devils didn’t make any defensive additions beyond Egor Yakovlev who was a player on the fringes of the roster and didn’t make much of an impact.  Not surprisingly, their group struggled this season and multiple additions need to be made.

There are some decent young players in the system.  Damon Severson has established himself as a top-four option while Will Butcher has shown some offensive skills.  2018 top pick Ty Smith could push for a roster spot as soon as next season and will certainly be a part of their long-term core.  Beyond those three, there are some question marks.

To make matters worse, both Sami Vatanen and Andy Greene sit a year away from unrestricted free agency.  It’s plausible that if extension talks don’t go anywhere with Vatanen that he could be on the move some point next season.  Greene has only ever played in New Jersey and he could certainly sign to stick around for another year or so but he’ll be 37 at the end of October so he’s not a long-term option.

There has been a need to add a top-four blueliner for a while.  If they want to get back to contending for a playoff spot, they’ll at least need to add one this summer and could certainly stand to add a second one.  If not, shoring up their depth and bolstering their third pairing will be necessary.  The 2018 offseason was quiet in terms of adding defensemen.  The 2019 summer can’t be.

Extension Talks

Although he won’t be repeating as the Hart Trophy winner in 2019, a long-term contract extension for winger Taylor Hall is undoubtedly at the top of the priority list for the Devils this summer.  While he wound up missing the final 47 games of the season due to a knee injury, he was averaging his second-best point per game average of his career at the time (1.12, only trailing the 1.22 he had the year before).

Needless to say, the 27-year-old will be in line for a significant raise on his current $6MM AAV.  While a deal officially can’t be signed until July 1st, expect the two sides to have had significant discussions before then.  If it appears that a deal can’t be reached or Hall suggests he’d like to test free agency in 2020, the Devils will likely be forced to turn around and trade him.  If that was to be the case and the right package was to present itself around the draft, Hall would at least be a player to watch for.

2017 top pick Nico Hischier is also eligible for a contract extension in July.  He has had a decent showing through his first two NHL seasons although not quite at the level that some of his counterparts from previous drafts have had.  Accordingly, his contract isn’t going to be near the level of extensions that players like Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews, the two prior number one picks, had.  However, given the expectation that the post-ELC marketplace is going to change considerably this summer with so many top players in need of new deals, GM Ray Shero may want to try to get a deal with Hischier done first before the salaries really start to escalate.

Determine Zacha’s Future

This was also on the list of keys last year as well and not a whole lot has changed since then when it comes to Pavel Zacha.  A hot finish to the season when the team was well out of contention allowed him to equal his career high in points.  However, that only meant that he hit the 25-point mark.  For a center picked sixth overall back in 2015, that’s not very good.

Hischier has staked a claim to the top center spot.  Projected number one pick Jack Hughes will likely one day ascend to that spot and should move past Zacha on the depth chart in no time.  Travis Zajac still has two years left on his deal and he isn’t likely going anywhere.  John Quenneville could push for a full-time roster spot next season and Michael McLeod, another former first-rounder, is in the mix as well.  Long story short, there isn’t a place in the lineup for Zacha at his natural position.

While it’s possible that he could move to the wing, doing so could potentially further devalue him around the league, especially if he isn’t productive.  Having said that, they clearly believed in his offensive upside when they drafted him so they could believe there’s another level or two to his game.

Zacha will no longer be waiver-exempt next season so if he’s a bubble player in training camp, this could become a storyline pretty quickly.  If Shero expects to make a few additions up front this summer, Zacha’s spot could be in jeopardy pretty quickly.  Is he still a core part of their future?  If the answer is no, they may be best served to try to trade him this summer rather than potentially being forced into that situation in September or October.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: Los Angeles Kings

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While the playoffs are now underway, many teams have already started their offseason planning.  What storylines lie ahead around the league in what is shaping up to be a likely busy NHL offseason?  Next up in our Offseason Keys series is a look at the Los Angeles Kings.

After making the playoffs last season and adding winger Ilya Kovalchuk in the offseason, expectations were high in Los Angeles.  Instead of pushing for a Wild Card spot, the thought was that they’d be in the mix for a top-three spot in the Pacific Division.  Instead, they floundered out of the gate and an early coaching change did nothing to turn around their fortunes.  As a result, they find themselves squarely in a rebuild as they enter the offseason.  They made one significant move already with the hiring of Todd McLellan but here’s what else to watch for in Los Angeles.

What’s Next For Kovalchuk?

Kovalchuk was supposed to give the Kings a boost offensively and move them up from a middle-of-the-pack team relative to the rest of the league.  Early on in the season, he did exactly that, notching 14 points over his first 14 games.  While he’s not the best of skaters, he was still finding a way to be productive.

That all changed when Willie Desjardins took over behind the bench.  Kovalchuk’s ice time quickly dwindled and so too did his production as he wound up with just 20 points over his final 50 contests.  It got to the point where he became a healthy scratch and was even left home during a late-season road trip to work on skill development.

Needless to say, the signing hasn’t worked out and with GM Rob Blake embracing at least some form of a rebuild, he’s not an ideal fit on their roster moving forward.  However, with two years left on his deal at a $6.25MM cap hit, his trade market shouldn’t be particularly robust.

As a result, even though moving him out would probably be the best from a potential player development perspective, there’s a case to be made to give Kovalchuk another chance under a new head coach.  If he rebounds, his trade value should improve as well.  That said, it’s safe to say that Kovalchuk and Blake didn’t expect they’d be in this situation less than a year after he signed.

Free Up Cap Space

The Kings were right up against the Upper Limit for a big portion of the season (even spending time using LTIR) before they started to sell in the second half.  While that alleviated some of their shorter-term concerns, a lack of cap space is going to continue to be an issue for this team moving forward, especially if they have plans to try to add a veteran or two along the way.

As things stand, they have over $72MM committed for next season already, per CapFriendly.  On top of Kovalchuk’s contract, they have some other pricey ones for underachievers on the books including center Jeff Carter ($5.27MM through 2021-22) and defenseman Dion Phaneuf ($5.25MM through 2020-21).  Goalie Jonathan Quick ($5.8MM through 2022-23) has been involved in some trade speculation with the thought that a deal is more likely now than it was midseason.  However, they may have to take a goaltender back in any move as a tandem of Jack Campbell and Cal Petersen likely isn’t a viable long-term tandem.

For Los Angeles to have any sort of tangible cap flexibility over the next couple of years, at least one of those players will need to be moved out.  Considering it’s likely that they’d have to retain in a trade or take contracts back to offset some of the salary, it’s possible that more than one will need to move.  The market for those players is going to be limited so Blake is going to need to be creative to get some of those big tickets off the books.

Decide Toffoli’s Future

Back at the trade deadline, there was some speculation surrounding winger Tyler Toffoli.  It was believed that he was available but since he had another year left on his deal, the asking price was quite high.

Now, the 26-year-old is set to enter the final year of his contract and will be eligible for unrestricted free agency in the 2020 offseason.  It’s time for the Kings to decide whether or not he’s part of their long-term future.

What will complicate the decision for Blake is Toffoli’s year-to-year inconsistency.  Four seasons ago, he looked like a long-term core piece after collecting 58 points.  One year later, that total dropped to 34 in an injury-plagued season.  He rebounded in 2017-18 but this past season, he dipped once again, going from 47 to 34; his 0.41 point per game average was the lowest of his career.  Can they build around someone who has bounced from producing close to a front-line player to one putting up numbers comparable to a third liner?

If the team wants to get an early extension done, it’s likely that Toffoli’s camp will be seeking an increase on his current $4.6MM AAV to entice him to avoid testing the open market.  However, if it appears that a deal can’t be reached or if they decide that it’s time to move on, expect his name to come up in trade speculation closer to the draft in June.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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