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Offer sheets

West Notes: Oilers, Ceci, Binnington

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The Edmonton Oilers’ decision to let Philip Broberg go and to trade Cody Ceci has opened up a hole in their top four that Josh Wegman of The Score believes should be filled via trade before the NHL trade deadline. This week, the Oilers have been checking in on multiple veteran defensemen who remain free agents, but Wegman believes they will seek a better solution before the playoffs.

Wegman lists Marcus Pettersson, Jakob Chychrun, and Ivan Provorov as potential targets as all three men are pending unrestricted free agents. He also believes that the Oilers could look for a longer-term solution and seek a player with some years left on their contract such as  Mike Matheson, Connor Murphy, or Radko Gudas. The Oilers have been linked to former Oilers Tyson Barrie and Justin Schultz this week, as well as former Bruins defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk. While all of those defensemen have had solid NHL careers, they are not great options for a Stanley Cup-contending team looking to round out their second defensive pairing.

In other Western Conference notes:

  • Jim Matheson of The Edmonton Journal doesn’t believe that defenseman Cody Ceci will remain in a San Jose Sharks uniform for very long. The recently traded defenseman has one year left on his current contract with a cap hit of $3.25MM and will likely be dealt to a contending team before next year’s NHL trade deadline. Ceci has never been an analytics darling and probably shouldn’t be a top-four defenseman on a contending team, but as a bottom-pairing defender, he could bring a lot of value to a team looking to add some experience to the backend of their lineup.
  • St. Louis Blues goaltender Jordan Binnington was reportedly very happy with the recent moves made by Blues general manager Doug Armstrong (as per Mike Zeisberger of NHL.com). Binnington told Zeisberger that the successful offer sheets to Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg showed current Blues players that Armstrong had faith in the group, which will motivate the club as they head into training camp. Binnington added that the additions to the Blues should help make the team more competitive next season as they will be a faster group that is harder for opponents to play against.

NHL Sets Arbitration, Offer Sheet Thresholds For 2024

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Offer sheets haven’t overtaken offseason discourse in three years now. Only the Canadiens and Hurricanes have gotten in on the little-used RFA acquisition technique in recent years, with Montreal unsuccessfully trying to steal star center Sebastian Aho from Carolina in 2019 and the Canes gaining 2018 third-overall pick Jesperi Kotkaniemi via an unmatched one-year, $6.1MM offer.

There are some RFAs this summer that seem less-than-likely to re-sign with their current clubs, namely Hurricanes forward Martin Nečas and Canucks defenseman Filip Hronek. While both are expected to change hands via trade if they do move teams this summer, they’re both eligible to sign offer sheets if a team presents one.

Thresholds are derived from the league’s average salary, which jumped over six percent from last season. As such, the goalposts for each draft pick compensation tier have moved toward the higher-value end of the field, with PuckPedia confirming this year’s full breakdown:

AAV Draft picks required
$1.51MM or less No compensation
$1.51MM to $2.29MM Third-round pick
$2.29MM to $4.58MM Second-round pick
$4.58MM to $6.87MM First and third-round picks
$6.87MM to $9.16MM First, second and third-round picks
$9.16MM to $11.45MM Two firsts, a second and third-round picks
Over $11.45MM Four first-round picks

It is important to note that any team trying to sign a player to an applicable offer sheet must use their own draft picks for compensation, not acquired ones. That rules several teams out already from signing high-profile RFAs unless they were to work to reacquire their picks before submitting the contract.

An offer sheet’s average annual value is also calculated slightly differently than a standard contract. If the contract is longer than five years, the total salary is still divided by five to determine the AAV. That would mean a seven-year contract worth $8MM per season ($56MM total value) would carry an AAV of $11.2MM for the purposes of offer sheet compensation. For more information about the details of offer sheets, check out CapFriendly’s FAQ.

Additionally, with the league’s average salary rebounding past its pre-pandemic figure, the arbitration award required for a team to walk away from a deal has increased for the first time since 2020. That number is now roughly $4.74MM, per PuckPedia, jumping around $200K. If an arbitrator awards a one- or two-year deal with an AAV less than $4.74MM, a team must sign the contract.

Oilers Notes: McLeod, Centers, Bouchard

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Kurt Leavins of The Edmonton Journal writes that he has been hearing that the Edmonton Oilers and restricted free-agent center Ryan McLeod were closing in on a new contract, but that the goalposts might have moved. What exactly that means is unclear and Leavins doesn’t speculate in the article, however, according to Robert Tychkowski of the Edmonton Sun, the Oilers have been trying to sign McLeod to a contract with a cap hit of around $2MM and with the arbitration ruling for Philipp Kurashev, they might be looking at a higher number. Kurashev received $2.25MM in his arbitration ruling and given McLeod’s track record he has a good case for a number north of that.

Couple that piece of information with the news that Leavins believes that the Oilers could be looking to bring in some centers on PTOs before training camp and it is a development that isn’t overly encouraging for Oilers fans. However, it doesn’t change the fact that McLeod and the Oilers are set to go to arbitration on August 4th and there are no guarantees of a higher salary for McLeod. He will be pencilled into the lineup once that ruling comes down, meaning there isn’t a threat of him not being signed.

McLeod hasn’t exactly set the world on fire in his first three seasons in the league, but this past season was his best thus far as he posted 11 goals and 12 assists in 57 games while posting a Corsi For % of 53.8%, meaning that the Oilers were controlling the puck more than half the time McLeod was on the ice. The 23-year-old has improved in every season since he started in the NHL and could be just scratching the surface of what he can be.

In other Oilers notes:

  • As mentioned above Leavins believes the Oilers are looking at improving their center depth, and while bringing in centers on a PTO is an option, Leavins also thinks that Edmonton will look at a possible in-season trade as another solution. The Oilers won’t have a ton of cap space (if any) after they sign their remaining restricted free agents, which is likely why Leavins mentions Jake Evans of the Montreal Canadiens and Nic Dowd of the Washington Capitals as possible targets. Dowd has two years left on his current deal at $1.3MM while Evans also has two years remaining and is owed $1.7MM in each of the next two years.
  • Robert Tychkowski of the Edmonton Sun writes that he believes the Oilers have dodged a bullet and he doesn’t expect an offer sheet to come this late in the off-season for restricted free-agent defenseman Evan Bouchard. That’s good news for Oilers fans, but it also isn’t all that surprising given the rarity in which offer sheets are utilized. Leavins wrote today that he believes the Oilers and Bouchard are close to a deal but doesn’t give any details. Given the Oilers tight cap situation it does seem highly likely that they will sign a bridge deal with their budding defenseman which could open the door for him to sign a very lucrative extension soon should he continue to quarterback the league’s best power play. Bouchard had eight goals and 32 assists this past season in 82 games, but just 13 of his 40 regular season points came with the man advantage. In the playoffs, it was a different story as Bouchard had four goals and 11 assists on the power play in just 12 playoff games.

2023 Offer Sheet Compensation

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In 2019, the offer sheet made its comeback after six years away, with Sebastian Aho signing a five-year, $42.3MM contract with the Montreal Canadiens. That was quickly matched by the Carolina Hurricanes, only to see them take some retribution and nab Jesperi Kotkaniemi two years later.

As we wait for the next offer sheet target, compensation thresholds have been set.

Offer sheet compensation is based on the league’s average salary, and as Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet reports, this year’s thresholds have increased a little more than two percent. Below is the full breakdown, with the contract’s average annual value placing it in one of seven tiers:

$1,415,740 or less No compensation
$1,415,741 to $2,145,061 Third-round pick
$2,145,062 to $4,290,125 Second-round pick
$4,290,126 to $6,435,186 First and third-round picks
$6,435,187 to $8,580,250 First, second and third-round picks
$8,580,251 to $10,725,314 Two firsts, a second and third-round picks
Over $10,725,314 Four first-round picks

It is important to note that any team trying to sign a player to an applicable offer sheet must use their own draft picks for compensation, not ones that have been acquired.

That rules several teams out already from signing high-profile RFAs unless they were to work to reacquire their picks before submitting the contract. An offer sheet’s average annual value is also calculated slightly differently than a standard contract; if the contract is of a length greater than five years, the total salary is still divided by five to determine the AAV.

That would mean a seven-year contract worth $8MM per season would carry an AAV of $11.2MM for the purposes of offer sheet compensation.

Some restricted free agents, like Ottawa’s Shane Pinto, have not accumulated enough time in the NHL to be eligible for an offer sheet. For more information about the details of offer sheets, check out CapFriendly’s FAQ.

Teams Debating Jake Oettinger Offer Sheet

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For years, there was talk of offer sheets without any actual action. That’s changed recently, with the competing offers between the Montreal Canadiens and Carolina Hurricanes for Sebastian Aho and Jesperi Kotkaniemi. Now, when offer sheets are brought up, they at least can’t be dismissed entirely.

That’s why this morning’s report from Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic that teams around the league are debating the merits of a Jake Oettinger offer sheet is so intriguing. The young goaltender showed this postseason that he is ready to step into the limelight as a star, posting a .954 save percentage in seven games, almost dragging the Stars past the Calgary Flames in the first round by himself.

With Jason Robertson also a restricted free agent and a few other spots to fill, the Stars have a limited amount of cap flexibility to work with, which could make an Oettinger offer sheet more appealing for some teams. It doesn’t make much sense to sign a player to one without real hope that it might not be matched.

That can draw the ire of opposing managers who are trying to keep contracts low with their young RFAs. In fact, that’s what happened in the Aho situation, with the Hurricanes quickly matching only to retaliate down the road.

So if you’re going after Oettinger, it’s going to have to be a deal that the Stars will have trouble matching, or at least reach the level of compensation to make them hesitate.

The compensation thresholds this year are:

$1,386,490 or less No compensation
$1,386,491 to $2,100,472 Third-round pick
$2,100,473 to $4,201,488 Second-round pick
$4,201,489 to $6,302,230 First and third-round picks
$6,302,231 to $8,402,975 First, second and third-round picks
$8,402,976 to $10,503,720 Two firsts, a second and third-round picks
Over $10,503,721 Four first-round picks

Check here for a more detailed explanation. 

Coming off his entry-level deal and not eligible for arbitration, the Stars could normally keep the netminder’s contract relatively low, especially with a short-term bridge deal. An offer sheet then becomes basically the only leverage that Oettinger’s camp has, meaning these whispers could just be a negotiating tactic.

Remember, teams must use their own draft picks for compensation, not selections that have been acquired from other clubs. It also can’t happen until he actually reaches RFA status on July 13.

2022 Offer Sheet Compensation

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Though still rare, we have started to see the offer sheet used a little more often. In 2019, the Montreal Canadiens signed Sebastian Aho to a five-year deal, which was quickly matched by the Carolina Hurricanes to keep their star. That meant turning down a substantial package of picks, and locking Aho into a deal that was certainly not very team-friendly. In response, the Hurricanes signed Jesperi Kotkaniemi to a one-year deal worth more than $6.1MM last summer, something the Canadiens just couldn’t match. They received first- and third-round picks in exchange, while the Hurricanes recently signed Kotkaniemi to a long-term deal that drops his cap hit considerably.

Offer sheet compensation is based on the average salary of the league, and as CapFriendly reports, this year’s thresholds have increased a little more than two percent. Below is the full breakdown, with the contract’s average annual value placing it in one of seven tiers:

$1,386,490 or less No compensation
$1,386,491 to $2,100,472 Third-round pick
$2,100,473 to $4,201,488 Second-round pick
$4,201,489 to $6,302,230 First and third-round picks
$6,302,231 to $8,402,975 First, second and third-round picks
$8,402,976 to $10,503,720 Two firsts, a second and third-round picks
Over $10,503,721 Four first-round picks

It is important to note that any team trying to sign a player to an applicable offer sheet must use their own draft picks for compensation, not ones that have been acquired. That rules several teams out already from signing high-profile RFAs unless they were to work to reacquire their picks before submitting the contract. An offer sheet’s average annual value is also calculated slightly differently than a normal contract; if the contract is of a length greater than five years, the total salary is still divided by five to determine the AAV. That would mean a seven-year contract worth $8MM per season would actually carry an AAV of $11.2MM for purposes of offer sheet compensation.

There are some restricted free agents, like Montreal’s Alexander Romanov, that have not accumulated enough time in the NHL to be eligible for an offer sheet. For more information about the details of offer sheets, check out CapFriendly’s FAQ.

Notes From The Jesperi Kotkaniemi Offer Sheet

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Offer sheets in the NHL are few and far between which makes it notable any time one is signed.  Rarer still is one that has a player signing for as much above market value as Jesperi Kotkaniemi did when he signed his one-year, $6,100,015 tender from the Hurricanes on Saturday.  Here are some notes from around the hockey world on the move.

  • Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic mentions (Twitter link) that Carolina and Montreal did have trade talks regarding Kotkaniemi although clearly, they weren’t able to come to an agreement.
  • Sportsnet’s Eric Engels writes that Montreal’s decision is a lot harder than the one the Hurricanes had two years ago when the Canadiens tendered an offer sheet to Sebastian Aho. He suggests Arizona’s Christian Dvorak as someone they’d be wise to have discussions about over the one-week matching period to see if some of the draft capital they’d get by not matching could be flipped for him.
  • Renaud Lavoie of TVA Sports relays (Twitter links) that league executives pegged Kotkaniemi’s actual value on a one-year deal no higher than $2.2MM, providing some perspective on how much of a perceived overpayment this contract is. He adds that the idea to tender Kotkaniemi the offer sheet came from Hurricanes owner Tom Dundon, not GM Don Waddell.
  • Arpon Basu of The Athletic writes (subscription link) that Montreal’s bigger concern should be that Kotkaniemi, who had spoken about wanting to stay with the Canadiens for the long haul in the past, was willing to go along with the offer sheet. He feels Montreal is in a no-win situation by either needing to pay Kotkaniemi well above market value and potentially messing up their salary structure or losing someone they hoped would be a franchise cornerstone for somewhat of an underwhelming return.
  • Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports in the latest 31 Thoughts podcast (audio link) that Montreal wasn’t close on a contract with Kotkaniemi’s camp and was focused on a bridge contract which is something the 21-year-old wasn’t interested in. He also believes that Carolina had discussions with Kotkaniemi on the framework of a long-term extension that could be signed once eligible that would come with a price tag below this one.  Of course, Kotkaniemi wouldn’t have to agree to that knowing that he’ll need to be qualified at $6.1MM next summer.
  • While Carolina would technically be over the salary cap if the Canadiens don’t match, Sara Civian of The Athletic suggests (subscription link) that it may not be too difficult for them to get back under by clearing out the remaining two years at $4MM on defenseman Jake Gardiner’s contract. Considering he has cleared waivers before, they’d likely need to provide some retention on that contract to make a trade work.

Hurricanes Tender Offer Sheet To Canadiens’ Jesperi Kotkaniemi

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The old adage surrounding offer sheets is that if one team messes with another team’s restricted free agents, they open themselves up to attack as well. After the Montreal Canadiens tendered an offer sheet to Carolina Hurricanes star Sebastian Aho two years ago, they are now facing the consequences. The ’Canes have returned the favor, announcing (in French at that) they have extended an offer sheet to Habs’ center Jesperi Kotkaniemi, which he has signed. The offer is for one year and $6,100,015. If you thought this wasn’t all about retribution, here is the kicker: the deal also includes a $20 signing bonus – Aho’s jersey number. Also this. The Canadiens have seven days to respond. They would receive first- and third-round picks if they elect not to match.

There are of course salary cap implication aplenty with this offer sheet. Kotkaniemi’s $6.1MM AAV would put Montreal approximately $8.38MM over the salary cap for 22 players with their expected LTIR relief from Shea Weber only coming in at $7.86MM. In order to match the offer sheet, the Canadiens will have to shed salary this season, enough to fit the overage and another player to round out the roster. Perhaps even more importantly, their starting number for negotiations with Kotkaniemi again next off-season begins with a $6.1MM qualifying offer. For a team with numerous expensive, long-term contracts, that simply may not be palatable. Of course, the Hurricanes face these same risks. The team would go approximately $1.52MM over the salary cap by adding Kotkaniemi, albeit with a full 23-man roster. They also could easily open up the space if they opt to again waive defenseman Jake Gardiner and his $4.05MM cap hit. The more pressing question then is whether Kotkaniemi lives up to his cap hit, which will also serve as his new QO. At the cost of a first and a third, Carolina will want to make sure Kotkaniemi is not just a one-year rental.

This all boils down to how much the Habs value Kotkaniemi, as the Hurricanes – while they had ulterior motives – clearly felt that the $6.1MM cap hit was warranted for the 21-year-old forward. Kotkaniemi, the third overall pick in 2018, has certainly shown flashes of star power. While his regular season numbers are unspectacular with 62 points in 171 NHL games, his playoff production has been stellar with nine goals and twelve points in 29 games. And while Kotkaniemi is still working on some of the fundamentals of the center position, he is a phenomenal possession player and is starting to fill out his frame and become a more physical presence. Kotkaniemi’s value is all about upside at his age. Both teams certainly see it, but only one team has ponied up the cost thus far (at least for one year). All but one offer sheet has been matched since the turn of the century. Will Montreal follow suit?

Though one of the most entertaining stories in roster building in recent memory, and not just in hockey, Carolina’s vicious response to Montreal’s attempted poaching of Aho two years ago is only likely to further deplete the likelihood of offer sheets, which are already considered a MacGuffin to most. Enjoy this while it last, it could be the final one for some time.

Negotiation Notes: Larsson, Andersen, Makar, Canucks

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After locking up Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to a long-term deal earlier today, the Edmonton Oilers will next turn their attention to reaching a new deal with defenseman Adam Larsson. According to TSN’s Darren Dreger in the latest edition of “Insider Trading“, that is more of a “when” than an “if” at the is point. Dreger states that the two sides are already close to a new deal and “in the final stretch” of negotiations. He expects that an extension will be reached soon. For Expansion Draft purposes, soon may not be until later next month, but a handshake agreement will do in the meantime. Larsson, 28, is one of the more stable defensemen in the NHL. If the defensive-minded right-shooter hit the open market, he would draw plenty of attention, but like Nugent-Hopkins, Larsson appears willing to settle on a deal to keep him in Edmonton with reigning Hart Trophy winners Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. So really, with RNH signed and Larsson not far behind, the Oilers may actually be focusing on external negotiations already, as Dreger notes they must add a goalie and complementary scoring forwards this summer.

  • It may come as a surprise following a career-worst season, but there is mutual interest in an extension between the Toronto Maple Leafs and goaltender Frederik Andersen. TSN’s Pierre LeBrun reports that agent Claude Lemieux recently met with the Maple Leafs’ brass and both sides expressed interest in a new deal, perhaps to the surprise of both. Andersen is likely not keen to enter the open market after a down year (and really many years of slow decline) when he could instead stay in familiar territory in Toronto. The Leafs also need a netminder this off-season and may be content to stick with Andersen, despite his struggles, given the play of Jack Campbell this season. LeBrun does point out that Toronto has told Andersen’s camp that he would be sharing the net with Campbell, potentially even starting out at less than 50% of starts, but Andersen is reportedly open to that arrangement.
  • Every year there is the threat of offer sheets and every year it never happens, but LeBrun notes that rumblings around the league are that Colorado Avalanche star Cale Makar could be the prime candidate this summer. With the Avalanche needing to extend the First Team All-Star as well as captain Gabriel Landeskog, starting goaltender Philipp Grubauer, and top-six forward Brandon Saad, all while saving room to extend superstar Nathan MacKinnon and replace several impending UFA’s next summer, cap space is tight in Denver. If another team swooped in with an offer that Makar couldn’t refuse, it might just be too much of a handicap for the Avs. Doubtful, but possible. Colorado can eliminate the risk of an offer sheet to their young phenom if they can lock Makar up before the market opens on July 28.
  • The Vancouver Canucks are already hard at work on extension for arguably their two most important players, defenseman Quinn Hughes and center Elias Pettersson. The pair of restricted free agents are centerpiece players for the Canucks and the team will whatever it takes to keep them around as long as possible. Dreger notes that GM Jim Benning and company are meeting again this week with agents from CAA Sports, who represent both young stars. A number of possibilities are on the table for both players, including a three-year bridge deal for Pettersson in the same vein as the recent contracts of Mathew Barzal and Brayden Point. However, it seems like long-term is the ideal goal. Pettersson is reportedly open to a long-term deal like that of Mikko Rantanen, while Hughes has explored contracts with terms between four and six years.

2021 Offer Sheet Compensation

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Though still rare, we did see an offer sheet make an impact in the 2019 offseason as the Montreal Canadiens signed Sebastian Aho to a five-year deal. It was quickly matched by the Carolina Hurricanes, meaning Aho stayed put and the team had to turn down a big package of draft picks that Montreal would have had to surrender.

Offer sheet compensation is based on the average salary of the league, and Elliotte Friedman included the thresholds for this year in his latest 31 Thoughts column for Sportsnet. Below is the full breakdown, with the contract’s average annual value placing it in one of seven tiers:

$1,356,540 or less No compensation
$1,356,540 to $2,055,364 Third-round pick
$2,055,364 to $4,110,732 Second-round pick
$4,110,732 to $6,166,096 First and third-round picks
$6,166,096 to $8,221,463 First, second and third-round picks
$8,221,463 to $10,276,829 Two firsts, a second and third-round picks
Over $10,276,829 Four first-round picks

For the first time in quite a while, these thresholds actually decreased from last offseason, thanks to the pandemic-related squeeze on player contracts. The average league salary finished at $2,960,905 according to Friedman, an 11.6% fall from 2019-20. Because of that decrease, the numbers for compensation have similarly fallen; last offseason, you could sign a player up to a $1,439,820 AAV without being required to give up any compensation.

It is important to note that any team trying to sign a player to an applicable offer sheet must use their own draft picks for compensation, not ones that have been acquired. That rules several teams out already from signing high-profile RFAs unless they were to work to reacquire their picks before submitting the contract. An offer sheet’s average annual value is also calculated slightly differently than a normal contract; if the contract is of a length greater than five years, the total salary is still divided by five to determine the AAV. That would mean a seven-year contract worth $8MM per season would actually carry an AAV of $11.2MM for purposes of offer sheet compensation.

There are some restricted free agents, like Vancouver’s Quinn Hughes, that have not accumulated enough time in the NHL to be eligible for an offer sheet. For more information about the details of offer sheets, check out CapFriendly’s FAQ.

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