Afternoon Notes: Flyers, Panarin, Butcher
Even though the Philadelphia Flyers picked second overall in the 2017 draft, they weren’t that bad of a team. The Flyers actually finished the season with a 33-39-10 record, good enough for 88 points. Eleven teams finished worse in the standings than the Flyers. So, while the team wasn’t at the bottom of the Eastern Conference, the team did make some changes. They got a little younger, trading away 25-goal scorer Brayden Schenn for struggling Jori Lehtera, a 2017 first-round pick and a conditional first-round pick in 2018, they let defenseman Michael Del Zotto walk and they swapped goaltenders, replacing veteran Steve Mason with Brian Elliott. They also drafted second-overall pick Nolan Patrick in the draft this year.
However, Philly.com’s Sam Donnellon writes that it will be very difficult to measure in which direction the team will go this year. Even with many of their veterans returning, there are too many unknowns, including the defense could have two or more rookie defensemen, both Patrick and top prospect Oskar Lindblom could make the team out of training camp and their goaltending still looks to be less than stellar. Some of those points could be positives as Lindblom and Patrick could have big first seasons or Elliott could have a comeback season.
The scribe writes that a lot of the teams success or lack thereof will fall on third-year coach Dave Hakstol, who must figure out how to fit all the pieces together while developing the team’s emerging youth.
- In an interview with Artemi Panarin in a Russian newspaper, SB Nation’s Dave Melton got a translated copy, in which he states he was surprised to be traded from Chicago, but is eager to move on to Columbus and hopes for an even bigger role with the Blue Jackets. The fact that multiple players have said they would like to play alongside him including Alexander Wennberg, is what Panarin says is exciting about the move. “That’s why I see this trade as a springboard and not a pitfall.”
- While likely meaningless, Denver Post’s Mike Chambers tweeted a picture of unrestricted free agent defenseman and Hobey Baker Award winner Will Butcher at Denver International Airport on Friday, carrying a bag with the Buffalo Sabres logo on it. Chambers suggests that his first visit was to Buffalo. The Sabres, Vegas Golden Knights, Columbus Blue Jackets and the New Jersey Devils have been reported to have reached out to the free agent out of the University of Denver.
Travis Zajac Undergoes Surgery, Out 4-6 Months
Terrible news for the New Jersey Devils today, as the team announced that Travis Zajac is out for 4-6 months following surgery to repair a torn pectoral muscle. The injury was sustained during his offseason training program. Zajac will now miss a good portion of the season, with six months from now being the middle of February.
Zajac is coming off another fairly successful season in which he registered 45 points as the team’s number one center. While he hasn’t been a big point producer for some time now, his consistency and defensive effort is a big part of the Devils’ offense. Though they’ll obviously miss his presence in the lineup, it does open the door for some of New Jersey’s young players to step up and prove their talent on the big stage.
In addition to Nico Hischier, the first-overall pick from this year’s draft, the Devils also have a group of centers ready to take the next step. Pavel Zacha, Micheal McLeod and John Quenneville all could step into a role in the middle if the team deems them ready for full-time duty. That’s not to say any of the four would be needed on the top line, as Adam Henrique will likely be given even more responsibility.
Luckily the team also added even more depth this offseason by signing Brian Boyle and trading for Marcus Johansson. Though the latter was expected to play mostly wing in New Jersey, he does have experience at center and could be moved back there if deemed necessary. Still, for a team that struggled to score last year and is trying to compete while Corey Schneider is still in his prime, losing a top option like Zajac is a serious blow.
Will Butcher To Meet With Buffalo, New Jersey, Vegas
Though he’s not able to actually sign a contract anywhere until tomorrow, Will Butcher has already set up some visits. Mike Chambers of the Denver Post reports that the DU Pioneers’ captain will meet with the Buffalo Sabres, New Jersey Devils and Vegas Golden Knights among others tomorrow after becoming a free agent. Butcher has been previously linked—however tenuously—to the Toronto Maple Leafs, Detroit Red Wings, Pittsburgh Penguins and Chicago Blackhawks.
Butcher has said he won’t rule out Colorado in his free agency, but after being snubbed by the team (and specifically then head coach Patrick Roy) in 2015, still seems like a long shot to end up in Denver. Instead, two of his three teams are obvious choices if he wants to contribute right away. Buffalo and New Jersey both have their eyes set on the playoffs and need huge defensive upgrades if they’re going to get there, and Vegas is looking for core players to build their team around. The 22-year old Butcher will be signing a two-year entry-level deal wherever he signs, though bonus structures can vary.
He and he agent have been clear that immediate opportunity is not the only thing Butcher is looking for, and a winning organization will also be considered, but playing big minutes in your first two years is the only way to get a big raise after your entry-level deal expires. In New Jersey and Buffalo he’d be given that opportunity.
Even though Vegas is the new kid on the block and is probably after any premium free agent, there doesn’t seem to be a great fit there. The Golden Knights already have seven or eight NHL-level left-handed defensemen in their system, and if they can’t move any they’re already in for a roster crunch at the start of the year. Butcher will be waiver exempt when he enters the league and would be the easy choice for them to move to the minors.
NCAA Free Agent Rules
Some of the most intricate rules in the NHL Collective Bargaining Agreement have to do with player draft rights. Depending both on where the player was when drafted, and the path he takes after being selected exclusive negotiating rights can be held for anywhere between two years and indefinitely. When it comes to players joining the NCAA ranks, it gets even trickier.
We saw one of the less often used tactics earlier this summer, when Cal Petersen declared he would not return to Notre Dame for his senior season. Since Petersen had been drafted four years ago, the Buffalo Sabres were given 30 days in which to sign him or lose his exclusive negotiating rights. The Sabres couldn’t get him under contract, and a month later the Los Angeles Kings scooped him up. Petersen could use this tactic because of the year he spent in the USHL after his draft, pushing his scheduled graduation to five years out from his draft year.
But this isn’t the method you want to hear about today. Will Butcher and Alex Kerfoot lead a group of players who will see their draft rights expire today after completing their senior seasons, and will be allowed to sign with any team in the NHL tomorrow, August 16th. Though their free agency is being widely reported as starting today, teams actually retain their negotiating rights through the end of day. From Section 8.6(c)(i) of the NHL’s Collective Bargaining Agreement:
If a Player drafted at age 18 or 19 is a bona fide college student at the time of his selection in the Entry Draft, or becomes a bona fide college student prior to the first June 1 following his selection in the Entry Draft, and remains a bona fide college student through the graduation of his college class, his drafting Club shall retain the exclusive right of negotiation for his services through and including the August 15 following the graduation of his college class. The Club need not make a Bona Fide Offer to such Player to retain such rights.
Though it’s quite possible that teams are already talking to the upcoming free agents—probable even, despite not technically being allowed to do so—they won’t be signing with anyone until tomorrow. Since this version of the CBA was introduced only Robbie Russo signed right away, inking with the Detroit Red Wings on August 16th nearly immediately after becoming a free agent. Last year we saw John Gilmour lead the pack by signing with the New York Rangers on August 18th, before Thomas DiPauli and Jimmy Vesey followed on the 19th to Pittsburgh and New York respectively.
While Butcher and Kerfoot are exciting players, and should sign within a few days of becoming free agents we will have to wait for one more day before anything can be officially announced. For now, they’re still tied to the Colorado Avalanche and New Jersey Devils.
*Note: Kerfoot actually could have used the method described in Petersen’s case to become a free agent last summer, since he played an additional season in the BCHL after being selected by the Devils in 2012. For ease of reading we did not include all of the CBA provisions, but if you’d like to read more about why his rights are held through and including August 15th, check out Section 8.6(c)(iii).
Snapshots: Keller, Letourneau-Leblond, Elias
The 2017-18 season will again have plenty of intriguing rookies entering the NHL. However, unlike most years, there won’t be a consensus pick for the Calder Memorial Trophy, for the player who is most proficient in his first year of competition. Most people believed that the award would end up in the hands of Toronto’s Auston Matthews last year and it did. This year, however, it won’t be as easy to predict a winner.
There are many top rookies that are ready to step into the league this year, ranging from 2017 first-overall pick Nico Hischier (New Jersey Devils) and second-overall pick Nolan Patrick (Philadelphia Flyers) to young forwards like Minnesota’s Joel Eriksson Ek and Arizona’s Clayton Keller. Several defensemen could step up as well such as Boston’s Charlie McAvoy and Ottawa’s Thomas Chabot.
Matt Larkin of The Hockey News makes his predictions for the top candidates, citing Keller as the most likely to win the award. Keller, the seventh-overall pick in the 2016 draft, scored 21 goals and added 24 assists as a freshman last year at Boston University and then signed with the Coyotes, playing three games for the team and tallying two assists.
Larkin writes that not even the addition of other top scorers like Derek Stepan, Dylan Strome or Christian Dvorak should stop Keller from reaching his potential next year. Regardless of what position he plays for the Coyotes, the scribe believes he will play on a top line and should put up solid numbers. He lists numerous others candidates, making for an interesting read.
- Enforcer Pierre-Luc Letourneau-Leblond announced his retirement on Twitter today, reported by James O’Brien of NBC Sports. The journeyman forward played hockey for 12 years in 12 different cities. Originally drafted in the seventh round of the 2004 draft by the New Jersey Devils, Letourneau-Leblond spent most of his career in the AHL, but did manage to get into 41 NHL games, mostly with the Devils. He accumulated 101 penalty minutes and three assists in those 41 contests. Last year, the 32-year-old played 37 games for the Syracuse Crunch and one game for the Toronto Marlies of the AHL. He finished his season with one goal, four assists and 128 penalty minutes.
- Speaking of the Devils, the team announced that they will retire Patrik Elias‘ No. 26 on Feb. 24, 2018, according to Chris Ryan of NJ.com. Elias retired in March when he decided to end his comeback attempt despite trying to come back from knee surgery, but he neither practiced or played last season before hanging it up. The 41-year-old forward, who spend his entire career in New Jersey, finished as the Devils all-time leader in goals, assists, points and hat tricks.
Free Agent Profile: Dennis Wideman
Recently, PHR has been shining some light on remaining free agents in a very quiet market, with players like P.A. Parenteau, Daniel Winnik, Brian Gionta, Jarome Iginla, and Drew Stafford getting some extra attention. The one thing that those players have in common is that there is not a defenseman among them. The last defenseman profiled was Johnny Oduya, who signed with the Ottawa Senators the next day and remains the last major UFA to have signed an NHL deal. Meanwhile, veteran Andrei Markov left for Russia, while big blue liner Cody Franson remains in limbo (and should consider investing in some real estate there).
Why have no other defenseman garnered attention, both from NHL teams nor the PHR team? There are simply few quality defenders left on the market. Outside of Franson, one lone defenseman remains unsigned from PHR’s list of the Top 50 2017 Free Agents: Dennis Wideman. Wideman was the last man to make the list, ranking 50th overall and 14th among defenseman. At 34 years old and coming off back-to-back seasons that could both be considered the worst of his career, Wideman wasn’t exactly a hot commodity. However, it was still projected that Wideman would find work based on a long track record of being able to play major minutes and put up points, even if just on a short-term inexpensive deal.
Luckily for Wideman, that is still a distinct possibility even in mid-August. The free agent market, for not only defenseman but for all players, is all but dead, yet opportunities remain. Signings have been few and far in between, but Wideman faces only Franson for any open blue line spots and brings a very different skill set. Wideman is an 11-year veteran with 387 points in 815 NHL games and was once considered one of the top puck-movers in the game. Wideman even drew Norris Trophy votes in 2008-09 with the Boston Bruins and turned his impressive resume into a five-year, $26.25MM contract with the Calgary Flames in 2012. Wideman is far from that player today, but still carries the pedigree of a possession defenseman capable of playing big minutes when needed and helping out on the power play.
Even if Franson signs a new contract first, Wideman’s chances of landing a deal of his own are still fair. In each of the past two years, two legitimate NHL defenseman have signed contracts late in free agency. Last year, it was Dennis Seidenberg going to the New York Islanders and Kyle Quincey signing with the New Jersey Devils. Seidenberg looked rejuvenated in Brooklyn and earned himself an extension, while Quincey proved to be a valuable veteran and trade chip for the Devils and has already signed with the Minnesota Wild this summer. In 2015, it was Franson himself, ending up with the Buffalo Sabres on a two-year deal, and David Schlemko, yet another one-year value deal for the Devils.
Potential Suitors
If the pattern isn’t clear yet, a one-year “show me” deal for Wideman with the New Jersey Devils remains a very real possibility. For the third season in a row, the Devils could greatly benefit from adding a talented veteran on the cheap. Although the team has a pair of consummate pros in captain Andy Greene and veteran Ben Lovejoy, as well as some exciting young players like Damon Severson, Mirco Mueller, and John Moore, the team is lacking in depth. Bringing in Wideman, who has become accustomed to a part-time role in Calgary over the past few years, to be a spot starter, capable injury replacement, and mentor to the young offensive blue liners would be a savvy signing by GM Ray Shero.
Another team that is going to be rumored to be in on a top-four defenseman until they actually go out and get one is the Colorado Avalanche. With just three defenseman currently signed to one-way deals and a depth chart lacking in legitimate NHLers, the rebuilding Avs are desperate for help on the blue line. It would not come as surprise if Colorado ended up signing both Wideman and Franson if their “D” corps looks as bad in camp as it does on paper.
Other interested parties that may be looking for affordable veteran depth – and specifically keyed in on a right-handed shot – include the Columbus Blue Jackets, Montreal Canadiens, Los Angeles Kings, or a return to the Washington Capitals.
Expected Contract
The original speculation for Wideman was that he would sign a one-year deal worth $1.5MM. At this point in the off-season and given Wideman’s age and the substantial wear on his tires, a one-year pact is all but certain. The $1.5MM? That isn’t out of the question. Wideman’s past two seasons with the Flames were none toof inspiring and Calgary fans were happy to see him go. However, that doesn’t mean that Wideman can’t return to form with a change of scenery and is just two years removed from a career-high 56 points. He may still be able to command a seven figure salary. The longer he goes unsigned though, the more and more likely he ends up under $1MM. Wideman seems unlikely to take the absolute minimum, $650K, and will hold out hope that he can get somewhere in the neighborhood of the $1.25MM deals that Quincey signed last year and this year. In the end, he may have to settle for only a bit more if he wants to extend his NHL playing career. One way or another, Wideman will be making much less and will have a very different role with his next contract versus his last.
Expiring NCAA Draft Rights
Will Butcher and Alex Kerfoot have graced many headlines over the last few months, as players who will be heading to free agency next week when their exclusive draft rights expire. Since they finished their senior years without an NHL entry-level contract, they can test the market on August 16th and sign wherever they want.
They’re not the only two, and CapFriendly provides us with a full list of players whose rights will expire next week. Several of the names listed have already signed minor league contracts with various organizations for next year, and will be excluded from the list below. The remaining players are as follows:
Sam Kurker – St. Louis Blues (2nd round, 2012)
Taylor Cammarata – New York Islanders (3rd round, 2013)
Chris Calnan – Chicago Blackhawks (3rd round, 2013)
Rhett Holland – Arizona Coyotes (4th round, 2012)
Zach Nagelvoort – Edmonton Oilers (4th round, 2014)
Will Butcher – Colorado Avalanche (5th round, 2013)
Doyle Somerby – New York Islanders (5th round, 2012)
Dominic Toninato – Toronto Maple Leafs (5th round, 2012)
Evan Campbell – Edmonton Oilers (5th round, 2013)
Connor Clifton – Arizona Coyotes (5th round, 2013)
Teemu Kivihalme – Nashville Predators (5th round, 2013)*
Grant Besse – Anaheim Ducks (5th round, 2013)
Alex Kerfoot – New Jersey Devils (5th round, 2012)
Ben Storm – Colorado Avalanche (6th round, 2013)
Tim Harrison – Calgary Flames (6th round, 2013)
Collin Olson – Carolina Hurricanes (6th round, 2012)
Chris Leblanc – Ottawa Senators (6th round, 2013)
Clifford Watson – San Jose Sharks (6th round, 2012)
James De Haas – Detroit Red Wings (6th round, 2012)
Blaine Byron – Pittsburgh Penguins (6th round, 2013)
Wade Murphy – Nashville Predators (7th round, 2013)
Brendan Collier – Carolina Hurricanes (7th round, 2012)
Jedd Soleway – Arizona Coyotes (7th round, 2013)
Nolan De Jong – Minnesota Wild (7th round, 2013)
*Has signed with Karpat of the Finnish Liiga.
Many of these players spent time in the minor leagues this past spring on amateur tryout contracts, but will become free agents if not signed by end of day on August 15th. That gives teams time to still get them into their system, but in cases like Toninato there may just not be enough room to fit him in on an entry-level contract. Even those on minor league deals will be free agents at the end of their contract, as those do not protect exclusive draft rights.
New Jersey Devils, St. Louis Blues Announce ECHL Affiliates
After two years of an “informal working agreement”, the Adirondack Thunder are the official ECHL affiliate of the New Jersey Devils. The two sides signed a one-year agreement to work with each other and the new Binghamton Devils of the AHL.
Adirondack had been the ECHL affiliate of the Calgary Flames after completing a market swap with their AHL team—the AHL Adirondack Flames became the Stockton Heat, while the ECHL Stockton Thunder became the Adirondack Thunder—but had housed several Devils’ prospects as well. Scott Wedgewood is perhaps the most notable example, as he played one game for Adirondack in 2015, the same season he would make his NHL debut.
The team also announced that Brad Tapper would take over as head coach and director of hockey operations for the Thunder. Tapper was most recently an assistant coach with the Rochester Americans of the AHL, but with a new regime in Buffalo installing their own coaching staff was free to pursue other options. This will be Tapper’s first professional head coaching position after a playing career that saw him suit up for 71 NHL contests with the Atlanta Thrashers.
In other minor league news, the St. Louis Blues have officially announced their affiliation with the Tulsa Oilers, giving the team an ECHL affiliate even though they won’t have on in the AHL next season. The Chicago Wolves, St. Louis’ most recent AHL partnership agreed to an affiliation with the Vegas Golden Knights. Expansion is expected in the AHL for the 2018-19 season to account for this, but for now St. Louis will send their prospects to several different teams (including the Wolves). Tulsa will give them a home for their ECHL players.
Summer Predictions: Metropolitan Division
The hockey world is at a standstill now that August has rolled around. With all of the arbitration cases now decided, and just a few restricted free agents left to sign players and fans alike are counting the days until training camp starts. While there are still several names in free agency that could still help an NHL club, it seems like many are destined either for professional tryouts or late-summer deals after injuries strike.
So now we’ll get into our summer predictions. Before the start of the year we’ll be releasing a full season preview with projections for each club and the expected playoff teams, but first we’ll ask you to give us your take on how you believe each division will end up. We’ll start with the Metropolitan Division, where defending Stanley Cup champions Pittsburgh will try for a three-peat in 2017-18.
Choose who you think will win the Metropolitan this season, and make sure to leave your full prediction for the division standings in the comments. We’ll be sure to publish these results alongside our own PHR rankings in September.
[Mobile users click here to vote!]
Colorado’s Holes On The Blue Line
It’s no secret that many people expect the Colorado Avalanche to be the worst team in the NHL again next year. Those who don’t generally put them just ahead of the Vegas Golden Knights, and fighting to be better than an expansion team in their inaugural season is not exactly a great spot for a franchise. However, there was not really much that GM Joe Sakic and the Avs could do this off-season, with so few veteran players on their roster who would have value on the trade market and an understandable reluctance to trade away young talent. In a weak free agent and trade market, no one could have drastically turned the team around either. The rebuild is ongoing in Colorado and they need to take their time with it an do it right so that a 48-point season never happens again.
With that said, it still doesn’t hurt, even for a rebuilding team, to try to be more competitive by adding a veteran player or two. Sakic understands that. He has gone out and added Jonathan Bernier, one of top goalies available, to back up Semyon Varlamov following the expansion selection of Calvin Pickard. He then traded for forward Colin Wilson from the Nashville Predators for a fourth-round pick, a relative bargain but a draft pick from a rebuilding team all the same. If the team had decided to tank this season, and accept everyone’s expectations of them, they could have just handed those jobs to underwhelming prospects Spencer Martin and Rocco Grimaldi.
Why then does the Avalanche blue line look the way it does then? Even assuming that restricted free agent defenseman Nikita Zadorov re-signs with Colorado as anticipated, that would still give the team just four defenseman on one-way contracts. Zadorov, a 6’5″, 230-lb. behemoth, is just 22 and the centerpiece of the Avs defense, while Tyson Barrie and Erik Johnson are talented veterans on long-term contracts. Yet, Johnson is injury-prone and Barrie often struggles in his own end. The fourth man is Mark Barberio, who was claimed off of waivers from the Montreal Canadiens last season and is penciled into a top-four role next season despite regularly playing bottom-pair minutes before arriving in Colorado. Beyond those four, not the most inspiring blue line corps in the NHL by any means, the bottom pair would likely be occupied by AHL veterans Anton Lindholm and Duncan Siemens, who were -10 with zero points in a combined 15 games last year. Other options include Chris Bigras, who has just one NHL game under his belt, first-year pro Andrei Mironov, and free agent addition David Warsofsky.
Sakic was willing to solidify his net and his forward corps and needs to do the same for his blue line. Zadorov, Barrie, and Johnson are fine for a top three, though each have their issues, and Barberio is a suitable starter. No one will blame the Avs for moving on from aging and ineffective veterans Francois Beauchemin and Fedor Tyutin, but might the team at least look into bringing back one of Eric Gelinas or Cody Goloubef, who both remain unsigned? Even that may not be enough. The obvious top choice would have to be Cody Franson, the top free agent defenseman left on the market. Franson may be a right-handed shot like Barrie and Johnson, but no doubt could help this team and play a major role. Franson could be especially helpful in re-booting an Avs power play that ranked dead last in 2016-17. Another player who could help in that department and with moving the puck could be Dennis Wideman. The veteran rearguard was once a prominent possession defenseman like Barrie and could give a boost to a Colorado offense that is often stagnant. If the Avalanche are shying away from older players like Wideman, they could take a chance on the oft-injured, but talented Simon Despres or on the unproven Jyrki Jokipakka instead. A big move that could be in play if they wanted to take the risk: an offer sheet to young New Jersey Devils puck-mover Damon Severson. Severson had a breakout year last season and looks to be a bona fide top-four offensive defenseman. The Devils are in a similarly rough shape on their blue line and would likely match any deal offered, but it could be worth a shot for the Avalanche, who could desperately use a promising young defender, even with future star Cale Makar coming down the road.
There are many options open to Sakic and the Avalanche and hopefully they find an avenue they like and take it. No one is expecting a rebuilding team to sell off pieces for a premiere defenseman, but they do expect Colorado to at least make an effort to field an NHL-caliber defense. At this point in time, the Avs don’t have that. No one wants to see another 48-point season in Denver. It’s time for Sakic to take action.