Injury

Oct. 24: The Islanders have received what’s likely the best-case scenario regarding Duclair’s injury. It’s indeed not season-ending and will only cost him the next four to six weeks, the team announced. That puts his absence around 13 to 20 games, not including time he’s already missed. He should return between Nov. 21 and Dec. 5.

Oct. 21: Islanders general manager Lou Lamoriello told reporters today that winger Anthony Duclair is facing a long-term absence after sustaining an apparent left leg injury Saturday against the Canadiens (via Andrew Gross of Newsday). Lamoriello estimates it won’t be a season-ending absence, but they’ll have a more specific timeline tomorrow after further testing.

Duclair, 29, now has to hit pause on his fresh start on Long Island after negotiating himself a four-year, $14MM deal in free agency over the summer. He was expected to be an impact piece for a lagging Islanders offense and appeared to fit the bill early on, logging top-line minutes with Mathew Barzal and Bo Horvat. He posted two goals and an assist in five games while posting dominant possession metrics – the trio controlled 64.6% of expected goals together, per MoneyPuck.

He’s occasionally been a standout secondary goal-scorer without being much of a defensive liability, if at all. He’s historically posted slightly above-average possession metrics, but injuries and plain old consistency issues have led to wildly different year-to-year point totals. The Quebec native showed his ability to flourish in top-six usage as recently as the 2021-22 campaign when he had a career-high 31 goals and 58 points in 74 games for the Panthers.

But Duclair tore his Achilles tendon while training the following offseason, keeping him out for the vast majority of 2022-23. He wasn’t terribly effective after returning to play down the stretch, scoring only twice in 20 appearances. He’s flipped teams twice since then, first traded to the Sharks in a cap-dump deal over the 2023 offseason and again to the Lightning as a deadline rental last season.

Duclair did the best he could on a severely undermanned Sharks offense, posting 16 goals and 27 points in 56 games before the trade. He ended the campaign on a tear in Tampa, though, scoring eight times and adding seven assists in 17 games while playing the top-line complementary role that yielded so much success from him in South Florida. The Islanders were hoping to get a similar rate of production out of him while placing him with their star forwards, but instead, they’ll lose his services for a significant portion of the first year of his contract.

For now, the outlook for this year’s Islanders becomes dicey. They’ve again struggled to score out of the gate, ranking 26th in the league with 2.60 GF/GP. Missing Duclair for an extended period certainly won’t do anything to improve that. But the Isles’ possession play at even strength has been strong, and they’re getting stellar goaltending from Ilya Sorokin (.953 SV% in 2 GP). That’s a familiar recipe that’s gotten them to the postseason in recent years, even with a subpar offense.

Lamoriello said the Islanders will add a forward on a call-up from AHL Bridgeport later in the coming days to replace Duclair on the roster. Julien Gauthier, who’s on waivers, won’t be staying on the roster with today’s news. It’s a performance-based demotion that will see him head to Bridgeport if he doesn’t get claimed. He also said that veteran enforcer Matt Martin, who remains on a PTO, isn’t a candidate for a contract at this time. Someone already in the organization will get the call.

In terms of who replaces Duclair’s minutes alongside Barzal and Horvat, today’s line rushes indicated it’ll be Simon Holmström (via Stefen Rosner of NHL.com). The 2019 first-round pick has two assists and a +1 rating in five appearances this season while averaging 13:32 per game, seeing most of his time at right wing alongside Anders Lee and Jean-Gabriel Pageau.