Free Agency

The new year is here and the NHL season is in full swing. Teams are jockeying for playoff position, and many players with expiring contracts across the NHL are playing games that could ultimately determine what type of payday they might receive in the summer.

In a multi-part series, we’ll take a look at each position group of the upcoming free agent class, and do a rundown on how those upcoming unrestricted free agents have performed this year. Which players have increased their odds of landing a massive contract? Which players have potentially hurt their earning potential with their play? We’ll break it all down here.

The Marquee Names

Jake Guentzel, Pittsburgh Penguins

Although the Penguins as a team haven’t had as strong of a first half of the season as they’d likely hoped to have, Guentzel is having an incredible individual season. Still just 29 years old, Guentzel is currently on pace to score 37 goals and 92 points if he keeps up his current pace across a full 82-game schedule. That would mark a career-high for the player, whose previous best season came when he scored 40 goals and 84 points.

Guentzel has long meshed with all-time talent Sidney Crosby on the Penguins’ first line, ever since he was a rookie and scored an otherworldly 42 points in his first 37 playoff contests. The Stanley Cup champion and two-time All-Star has been the most talented winger in Pittsburgh for quite a while now, and his elite form this season is setting him up nicely for a massive payday. Pittsburgh will undoubtedly make a strong effort to keep him, but with William Nylander earning $11.5MM on his own contract extension, one wonders if Pittsburgh will be able to stomach making Guentzel its highest-paid player.

With Erik Karlsson already making $10MM against the Penguins’ cap and significant dollars already committed to Crosby ($8.7MM), Kris Letang ($6.1MM), Evgeni Malkin ($6.1MM), and over $15MM to the trio of Bryan Rust, Reilly Smith, and Rickard Rakell, it could take some creativity to find a way to fit in a Guentzel megadeal. If they can’t manage that or otherwise elect to part ways with their leading scorer, expect him to potentially be the top available name on most free agent rankings.

Steven Stamkos, Tampa Bay Lightning

It’s relatively surprising to see Stamkos, who one could argue is the greatest forward in Lightning history, still without a contract extension beyond this season. If he does end up hitting the open market, though, he’s likely to be one of, if not the biggest name available in free agency. Set to turn 34 in February, Stamkos has in recent seasons moved away from the center position he’s long occupied.

As the team’s focus down the middle has shifted to Brayden Point and Anthony Cirelli, Stamkos’ production has remained rock-solid. The Lightning captain is hovering around a point-per-game mark once again, and is scoring at above a 30-goal pace as everyone has come to expect of him.

The fact that he’s no longer playing center will surely eat into his earning power somewhat, though it’s important to note that he nonetheless is an extremely experienced center who could very well shift back to the position on a new team.

In any case, what Stamkos offers to teams in free agency is clear: he’s one of the defining talents of this most recent era in the NHL, combining lethal scoring ability with widely respected leadership and playoff experience.

It’s not often that a two-time Stanley Cup winning captain hits free agency, and it’s even less frequent for that player to hit free agency coming off of an eighth consecutive season scoring at around a point-per-game. His age might mean that he won’t receive the largest full guarantee in free agency, but make no mistake, Stamkos is likely to be one of the most in-demand players if he hits the open market and his strong 2023-24 is a reason why.

The Solid Contributors

Teuvo Teräväinen, Carolina Hurricanes

Currently slotted in as the Hurricanes’ first-line right winger alongside Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov, Teräväinen is set to be one of the bigger names available on the open market this summer. But is his recent form befitting of someone of that high of a profile? That’s a different question. The 29-year-old scored 65 points in 2021-22 but dealt with some injury issues last season and has generally underperformed relative to expectations since.

Teravainen followed up his 65-point campaign with just 37 points in 68 games, and this season is on pace for 48 points in a full 82-game slate. He’s scored just four points in his last 10 games, and as we inch further and further away from Teräväinen’s days as a reliable 60-plus point scorer, it becomes harder and harder to avoid the feeling that this decline could be a permanent one. Teräväinen won’t turn 30 until next season, of course, and it’s still possible that he’s just been unlucky. It’s not as though his role in Carolina has declined, after all.

Teräväinen has a 76-point season on his resume and will likely be among the most gifted playmakers available to teams on the free agent market. The package of tools he provides is rare across the NHL, and typically scoring forwards like him earn contracts that reflect their scarcity. Teräväinen’s stock is undoubtedly down given his declining numbers, but he has all the talent in the world to author a big second half of the season and push his way back to the forefront of the free agent market.

Adam Henrique, Anaheim Ducks

A model of consistency throughout his nearly 900 games in the NHL, Henrique is the kind of player just about every team would like to add to its roster. He’s versatile, playing both along the wings and at the center position. (he’s currently slotted in as the Ducks’ second-line center.) He’s defensively responsible and offensively capable, scoring around 20 goals and 40 points per season with the potential for more while also enduring hefty short-handed ice time. And he’s a valued leader who has worn a letter on his sweater for six total seasons combined across his time with the Ducks and Devils.

He’s making $5.825MM against the cap on his current deal, and with his offense down a touch (he is scoring at a 44-point pace compared to his 50-point pace last season) it’s not a significant enough decline to really be all that notable. What is more notable, however, is the fact that he’ll turn 34 in February. That makes it a significantly more challenging prospect for Henrique to earn a long-term deal, but he could potentially command a large one-year guarantee if that’s what he so chooses.

What Henrique fetches at the trade deadline, assuming the rebuilding Ducks opt to send him to a contender, will go a long way in helping project Henrique’s leaguewide standing. At this point, his stock appears to be holding steady.

Tyler Bertuzzi, Toronto Maple Leafs

After a strong finish to his 2022-23 season with the Boston Bruins, Bertuzzi signed a one-year, $5.5MM contract in Toronto likely with the hope that a season there would be a launching pad to a more lucrative free agent trip in a year’s time.

So far, Bertuzzi’s season has not quite gone as hoped. While he has thankfully remained healthy, Bertuzzi hasn’t had the impact in Toronto that he likely envisioned. He’s playing on a line with two elite scorers in John Tavares and William Nylander, but has only managed 18 points in 39 games. That’s not up to the standard he set in Boston, or the production he showed he was capable of at times in Detroit.

As a result of his slow start to the year, Bertuzzi’s free agent stock is undoubtedly down from where it was last season, and it raises questions as to whether choosing a one-year deal on a high-scoring team to bet on himself was the right option in his previous trip to free agency, compared to just signing the largest possible long-term deal he could get. Because right now, it’s unlikely Bertuzzi’s long-term offers match what he likely received the year before.

Jason Zucker, Arizona Coyotes

Despite scoring 27 goals and 48 points last season, Zucker did not receive a long-term contract in free agency last season. That was somewhat understandable given Zucker’s struggles with injuries and inconsistency as a Penguin, but it was still somewhat surprising to see a five-time 20-goal scorer settle for a one-year deal.

The hope was likely that playing in a relatively low-pressure environment as a Coyote alongside some talented offensive players such as Matias Maccelli, Nick Schmaltz, and Clayton Keller could lead to a career year. That hasn’t happened yet, as he’s scored just six goals and 12 points so far this season.

With the Coyotes still in striking distance of a playoff spot, there is certainly room for Zucker to raise his stock in the rest of the campaign. But at this current moment, Zucker’s unlikely to receive the same kind of $5.3MM AAV guarantee he did last summer.

The Role Players

Stefan Noesen, Carolina Hurricanes

Despite receiving the second-lowest average ice time of any regular Hurricane, Noesen is on pace for a career year offensively. This comes just after Noesen already set career highs last season by scoring 13 goals and 36 points.

Playing on just a $762.5k cap hit, Noesen’s current play makes him one of the most valuable players on a cost-per-point basis, not including players such as Connor Bedard who are locked into entry-level deals.

Noesen has received a regular dose of power play time alongside his 10 minutes or so of even-strength ice time per game, and he’s made the most of it. It’s not entirely common for players to experience breakout years in quick succession once they’ve reached their late twenties, but that’s exactly what Noesen has done.

Ever since he led the AHL in goals in 2021-22, Noesen has been on a steep upward trend. So far this season he’s sustained that upward trend and has lined himself up to potentially receive a significant pay raise in the free agent market.

James van Riemsdyk, Boston Bruins

Now 34 years old, “JVR” is in the midst of a resurgent campaign with the Bruins. Although he receives just a shade over 13 minutes of ice time per game, he’s made the most of it. He’s on pace to score 53 points this season, which would be his highest total since he was a 36-goal scorer on the Toronto Maple Leafs.

It’s not been Van Riemsdyk’s prolific goal-scoring that’s led the way for his resurgence, instead, it’s been how well he’s meshed with the other offensive talents in Boston. Playing in a down-low net-front role on the Bruins’ power play, van Riemsdyk’s been a conduit for quite a bit of high-danger scoring chance creation around the net.

He’s elevated his teammates through doing that and is on pace for his best offensive season in a half-decade. He’s making $1MM against the cap this season, but he could get a raise from that number if he can manage to keep up how he’s played so far this year.

Dominik Kubalík, Ottawa Senators

It’s been something of an odd season for Kubalík. His ice time has remained relatively steady at a little over 14 minutes per game, he’s playing alongside talented linemates such as Vladimir Tarasenko, and his shooting percentage is up to 15.8% all the way from the 11.5% he shot last season.

But he scored 45 points last season. This year, he’s on pace to score just 27 points. The former 30-goal scorer was expected to soften the blow of the Senators’ loss of Alex DeBrincat via trade, but so far he hasn’t done so and his slow start has contributed to the Senators’ significant early-season struggles.

With Tarasenko, Claude Giroux Brady Tkachuk, Mathieu Joseph, and Drake Batherson standing in his way for offensive opportunities along the wings, it doesn’t look as though Kubalík has a clear path toward raising his stock in advance of a likely trip to the UFA market.

Warren Foegele, Edmonton Oilers

A 27-year-old career bottom-six winger, Foegele does a little bit of everything. He brings size, he brings defensive ability, and he has been a consistent offensive contributor with at least 10 goals and 20 points in each of the last four seasons.

Foegele has also shown some flashes of increased offensive potential, and under head coach Kris Knoblauch (his former OHL coach with the Erie Otters) he’s been placed in prime position to deliver increased offense. He’s currently playing alongside all-world center Leon Draisaitl on Edmonton’s second line, and has already scored seven goals and 20 points in 38 games

At one point, it looked as though Foegele might struggle to match his current $2.75MM cap hit on his next deal. Now, that looks to be almost a certainty. If he can continue at this scoring pace and the Oilers make the playoffs, he’ll be in prime position to supercharge his earning potential. The former OHL Playoff MVP has come up big in the postseason at the junior level, so if he does the same at the NHL level this spring he could find himself a massively in-demand free agent.

Jakub Vrána, St. Louis Blues

A tantalizing offensive talent who scored 25 goals and 52 points in just 69 games in his age-23 season, Vrána has had an extremely difficult time since he was traded by the Washington Capitals to Detroit. He’s struggled with injuries to a significant degree, and also missed time after entering the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program. He eventually found himself traded to the Blues, and even cleared waivers on multiple occasions.

His waiver clearances are likely more about his $5.25MM cap hit than his talent, though, and with Vrána’s offensive pedigree, there is likely to still be interest in him on the free agent market. He’s scored six points in 21 games this season for the Blues, but is now a healthy scratch.

Vrána is so skilled that better points production could very well come if he can find a way to climb the depth chart of new head coach Drew Bannister. A particularly hot stretch to close out the year could give more confidence to Vrána’s potential free agent suitors that he remains the same player who put together back-to-back 20-plus goal seasons in his early twenties.

Tomáš Tatar, Seattle Kraken

Tatar has been a remarkably consistent offensive player throughout his NHL career, with a generally agreed-upon floor of around 20 goals and 45 points and the ability to score as many as 61 points in just 68 games in the right circumstances. Unfortunately for Tatar, what has also been consistent throughout his NHL career is how his normally solid offensive production absolutely craters in the postseason. While Tatar scores at a 0.57 points-per-game rate in the regular season, his points-per-game in playoff action is just 0.25.

Now 33 years old, teams are less likely to view Tatar’s playoff struggles as a matter of poor luck and a trend that can be broken, and as a result Tatar had weaker-than-expected free agent interest this past offseason. In addition, he struggled to make his mark in Colorado and was eventually traded to Seattle for a conditional fifth-round pick. He’s scored a bit better in Seattle and is now placed on the team’s first line alongside Jordan Eberle and Matthew Beniers, which is a massive opportunity for him.

His stock is undoubtedly down at this point, but if he can remain on that top line and help guide the Kraken back to the playoffs, he’d therefore have the opportunity to dramatically change  the narrative surrounding him with the first productive playoff run of his career

Mike Hoffman, San Jose Sharks

With each day that passes, it looks increasingly likely that the $4.5MM AAV contract Hoffman signed with the Montreal Canadiens in the summer of 2021 will end up Hoffman’s last significant free agent cash-in. That’s not to say there won’t be a market for the five-time 25-goal scorer in the summer, it’s just that Hoffman’s performance since leaving the offensively-supercharged Florida Panthers has diminished his stock leaguewide.

A natural sniper, Hoffman floundered in the Canadiens’ offensive environment, putting together back-to-back seasons of about 15 goals and 35 points. Those are hardly poor totals, but they’re also not ideal ones for a player making Hoffman’s cap hit and playing Hoffman’s dose of minutes. In other words, a team is likely to expect a little more when they invest the way the Canadiens invested in Hoffman, both in terms of dollars and in terms of offensive opportunities.

So far this season, being on such a poor San Jose team has not helped him very much. While he’s still on pace to score 17 goals in a full season, he’s built the reputation over the last few years as something of an “empty calorie” scorer, meaning his box score numbers are there, but his overall on-ice impact isn’t translating to meaningful team success. He’ll be hard-pressed to shed that tag as a Shark, but if he can land on a playoff contender in need of scoring at the deadline (which could be difficult due to his cap hit) he could very well raise his stock significantly with some big goals down the stretch.

Michael Amadio, Vegas Golden Knights

After spending most of his pro career as a depth forward, one might have thought that 2022-23 would be the maximum type of breakout campaign Amadio could author. After all, he scored 16 goals, a career-high 27 points, and added 10 points in 16 games en route to a Stanley Cup championship in his very first playoff run.

But this season, Amadio is scoring at an even higher rate. He’s on pace to score 35 points in the full season, and is now even showing some positional versatility as he’s had games slotted in as the Golden Knights’ fourth-line center. Set to hit the open market at the age of 28, Amadio has been a developmental success story for the Golden Knights, and other teams are in position to benefit from their work by signing Amadio this summer. His stock soared last season, and it’s even higher 39 games into this campaign.

Yakov Trenin, Nashville Predators

Trenin will turn 27 on Saturday, and will likely be one of the more interesting left wingers to monitor on the free agent market not considered a top-six talent. The passionate Russian power forward had a breakout season in 2021-22, scoring 17 goals. He followed that up with 12 goals last season, and is now on pace for 15 goals this year.

He brings a ton of physicality and energy to a fourth-line role alongside his goal-scoring ability, and he has even become a reliable penalty killer to boot. He’s currently making $1.7MM against the cap, but he earned that as a restricted free agent exclusively negotiating with the Predators. On the open market, the unique offering Trenin brings to the table could generate quite a bit of interest.

Jordan Martinook, Carolina Hurricanes

Like some other players on this list, Martinook is coming off of a season that looks increasingly like it would have been the ideal time for him to hit free agency. In 2022-23, Martinook scored a career-high 34 points, averaged a career-high 15:38 time-on-ice per game, landed on a Selke Trophy ballot for the first time in his career, and helped the Hurricanes on a run to the Eastern Conference Final.

This season, his ice time average has declined almost a full minute, and his work on the team’s penalty kill is no longer resulting in an elite unit: they were second-ranked last season and rank ninth this season. Additionally, Martinook is on pace to score six goals and 24 points, which is a far cry from 13 goals and 34 points. He’ll want to have a strong, increasingly productive second half to raise his stock back up.

Tanner Pearson, Montreal Canadiens

Before an injury sidelined him, the 31-year-old Pearson was putting together a decent bounce-back year with the Canadiens. As a key veteran voice on an exceedingly young roster, Pearson is in a position to showcase his off-ice value as an experienced, Stanley Cup-winning veteran alongside his rediscovered on-ice value.

It’s too early to determine whether his production will fall in line with where it was when he was last healthy (34 points in 68 games in 2021-22) but early indications are that he’s not quite there yet. He’s scored eight points in 27 games for the Canadiens, although he’s playing on a team not exactly known for setting the world on fire offensively. More than anything else, the best thing Pearson can do for his free agent stock is get healthy and remain reasonably productive in a bottom-six role in Montreal.

William Carrier, Vegas Golden Knights

Although Carrier has played around his career standard in 2023-24, it’s looking increasingly like last summer would have been the ideal time for Carrier to hit free agency. The speedy, physical bottom-six left winger had just contributed to the Golden Knights’ first-ever Stanley Cup championship, and he had set a career-high in goals with 16 along the way.

The market for players who combine speed, size, and goal-scoring ability is often robust, and Carrier would have likely had an exceedingly active market waiting for him had he hit free agency last summer. This season, while still strong, has not had the same momentum for Carrier. A big playoff run can change things, but so far Carrier’s stock is back to where it has been for much of his career rather than at a peak position.

Dakota Joshua, Vancouver Canucks

The big Ohio Sate product was a savvy signing by the Canucks in the summer of 2022, as they bet Joshua’s playoff breakout of 15 points in 18 games was a sign of an NHL future. He rewarded their gamble last season by showing he could hang at the NHL level. He played in 79 games and scored 11 goals and 23 points. For the first time since leaving the Buckeyes and college hockey, Joshua went an entire season without playing in a minor league.

So far this season, just as the Canucks have soared to the top of the Pacific Division Joshua has soared to even greater NHL heights. He’s already registered 11 goals and 20 points this season, which puts him on pace to score 22 goals and 40 points in a full 82-game schedule.

That would be an incredible return on investment for Vancouver, who owe him just a $825k cap hit for the season. It would also be an incredible rise in standing for Joshua, who would enter the free agent market on an extremely strong footing.

If he hits the open market, Joshua will be a 28-year-old forward who can play both center and left wing. If he keeps up his current pace, he’ll be someone who has just scored 22 goals, and 40 points, and could conceivably be just scratching the surface of his NHL prime.

If he can keep this up and go on a solid playoff run on the massive stage a success-starved playoff market provides, Joshua could end up one of the biggest winners in the 2024 free agent class.

Zemgus Girgensons, Buffalo Sabres

Now 30 years old with nearly 650 NHL games under his belt, Girgensons has clearly established himself as a known quantity in the NHL. He’s a long way from scoring 15 goals and representing the Sabres at the All-Star game, but he’s nonetheless a useful bottom-six defensive specialist with some penalty-killing utility.

That’s the role he’s played with the Sabres for much of his career, and although the Sabres have not had team success at all during his career, Girgensons has remained consistent.

The owner of a $2.5MM AAV contract, Girgensons’ current scoring pace makes it unlikely he’ll match that number in free agency. After scoring 10 goals and 18 points in two consecutive seasons, Girgensons has yet to register a single assist this year. His three points in 25 games put him on pace for a career-low offensive output, and the injury that kept him out for almost the entire month of December hurt his momentum.

Tyler Motte, Tampa Bay Lightning

As a capable, hard-working bottom-six winger on some strong New York Rangers teams, Motte had reportedly expected stronger free agent interest than he ended up receiving in back-to-back offseasons. While he hasn’t scored much at the NHL level, Motte’s hope was likely that his exemplary work on some playoff-contending teams would make him a premium option for a team looking to add to their bottom-six forward group. We’ve seen light-scoring bottom-sixers get hefty long-term contracts in the past, and Motte saw an example of this firsthand playing alongside Barclay Goodrow with the Rangers.

Goodrow was signed to a long-term $3.64MM AAV deal after scoring just 20 points for the Tampa Bay Lightning, in large part due to how effectively he played his bottom-six role on a team that won back-to-back Stanley Cups. Motte was likely hoping to follow that blueprint in New York, and this past season he took that comparable a step forward by signing with the team Goodrow earned his contract on: Tampa Bay. Motte’s role in Tampa is similar to what it has been in New York and Ottawa: he’s a fourth-liner trusted to play defense-first minutes with a steady diet of penalty-killing ice time as well.

Currently, Motte is slotting in as a center on Tampa’s third line next to rookie Gage Goncalves and veteran Conor Sheary. Motte has been a left winger first and foremost in prior trips to free agency, so showing the versatility to play center certainly helps his stock entering another free-agent foray. But seeing as the Lightning have struggled as a team this season compared to prior years, Motte may not end up playing in the deep playoff run that is so crucial for bottom-sixers hoping to maximize their free agent earnings.

Ryan Lomberg, Florida Panthers

A 29-year-old undrafted player, Lomberg presents an interesting free agent case. Although he stands just five-foot-nine, 185 pounds, Lomberg is one of the Panthers’ more physical players. He’s a genuine agitator, someone who is expected to get in his opponents’ faces and attempt to get under his opponents’ skin. A hard-working, relentless bottom-sixer who clawed his way up from the ECHL to the NHL, Lomberg’s ice time has declined from where it was last season. That’s come alongside an offensive decline, as Lomberg scored 12 goals and 20 points last year but only has two goals and three points this year.

If Lomberg can’t get his offense back on track, he faces a tough task attempting to earn a major pay raise over his current $800k cap hit. That being said, even with his stock down a little he seems to have at least done enough to earn himself another one-way contract, especially if his popularity among many Panthers fans is considered.

Andrew Cogliano, Colorado Avalanche

Now with over 1,250 games of NHL experience, Cogliano’s NHL value is quite clear. Beyond age-related decline setting in to a severe degree, there doesn’t appear to be much that Cogliano could do to materially impact his free agent stock. He’s still a key penalty killer on a contending Avalanche team, and while their penalty kill was only average last season it’s been notably stronger so far in 2023-24.

Cogliano’s ice time has remained steady, his role is relatively unchanged as a bottom-six penalty killer, and his offense has remained almost exactly in line with the last two years of his career. Cogliano earned a one-way $825k contract extension last year, and he’s well on his way to earning a repeat deal for 2024-25 should he decide to continue his career.

Others Of Note

Pat Maroon, Minnesota Wild

Set to turn 36 in April, Maroon looked to be in serious decline just one year ago. The three-time Stanley Cup champion had gone from 11 goals and 27 points in 2021-22 to just five goals and 14 points in 2022-23. As a result, the Lightning dealt Maroon to the Minnesota Wild, and the Wild have reaped the benefits of Maroon’s strong start to his platform year. He’s already matched his point total from last season in just 40 games, and Maroon’s long-respected locker-room value has been a big help for a Wild team that has gone through some serious early-season adversity.

If Maroon’s 2022-23 campaign at one point looked to be a clear sign that his time in the NHL was coming to an end, 2023-24 has served as proof that Maroon still has gas left in the tank to contribute at the game’s highest level.

Matt Martin, New York Islanders

A veteran grinder inching ever closer to his 1,000th game, it’s relatively difficult for Martin’s free agent stock to fluctuate heavily. He fills a highly specific role at the NHL level: a fourth-line grinder who specializes in racking up hits. Now 34 years old, Martin isn’t as quick as he once was and his role in New York has declined slightly. He’s still playing in his same spot on the team’s fourth line alongside Casey Cizikas and Cal Clutterbuck, it’s just the fourth line as a whole plays a few less minutes per game than they have in the past.

Martin is making $1.5MM against the cap this season, and it’s difficult to see him matching that number in free agency once again outside of highly specific circumstances, the same type of circumstances that exist for him in New York.

Mattias Janmark, Edmonton Oilers

Now in his second season with the Edmonton Oilers, Janmark has settled into a pretty clear role. Standing six-foot-two, 205 pounds the 31-year-old brings size, a little bit of physicality, and sporadic scoring to a team’s third or fourth line. He scored 25 points in back-to-back seasons, though his production is down a bit this season. He has only one goal and five points in 28 games, and his 3.3% shooting percentage so far this season is certainly not helping him.

That being said, Janmark’s ice time has remained relatively steady in the low teens of minutes, and he’s still a regular penalty killer on a league-average unit. There’s value in a player who can capably handle that sort of role, especially in one who does it with 66 games of postseason experience. With the Oilers now looking likelier and likelier to make the playoffs after a brutal start, Janmark’s stock can only rise from here.

Eric Robinson, Buffalo Sabres

Robinson has had some good luck so far this season. The six-foot-two undrafted grinder was playing in his first AHL games since 2019-20 before a trade landed him with the Sabres, and handed him a clearer path to regular NHL ice time as a result. Robinson’s role in Buffalo has been right in line with the role he’s played throughout his NHL career: he skates on a fourth line and contributes as a secondary penalty killer, although he does get healthy scratched at times, which is not something that happened with a lot of frequency as recently as last season.

With a career-best total of 12 goals last season, Robinson proved to some degree that he has what it takes to stick in the NHL as a fourth-line winger. The fact that Robinson was traded for a conditional seventh-round pick likely has more to do with his $1.6MM cap hit than his true on-ice value, and his five points in 11 games with the Sabres so far suggests he can still play. But in order to have the best chance of earning a solid one-way contract to play on an NHL fourth line next season, Robinson will want to re-enter Sabres head coach Don Granato’s regular lineup picture and avoid as much time in the press box as possible.

Kiefer Sherwood, Nashville Predators

Playing on a one-year, league-minimum deal, Sherwood has been offered every chance to have a platform year to remember in Nashville. The former AHL star has played in 35 of the Predators’ 41 total games, and he is just two points off his offensive career highs, already having scored five goals and 11 points.

That being said, while the 28-year-old is nearing some personal bests, it’s not as though he’s setting the world on fire.

As an offense-first player who receives only sporadic special teams usage, it’s a little difficult to parse out where Sherwood’s long-term NHL future lies.

Is he capable of producing enough to stick on a scoring line? Does he bring enough defensively to be worth signing for a role on a shutdown line? Sherwood is hard-working, energetic, and has the offensive skill to at the very least put together extremely productive seasons in the AHL.

Players like that are typically in the high-end two-way deal / relatively cheap one-way deal territory. Sherwood is playing this year on a one-year league minimum contract, and he could very well earn another contract in that range. Although he’ll definitely want to snap his streak of eight consecutive games without a point sooner rather than later, something that could be a challenge since he’s currently outside Nashville’s regular lineup looking in.

Oskar Lindblom, San Jose Sharks

There’s no sugarcoating it: Lindblom’s 2023-24 has been a struggle. He’s now in the AHL for the first time since 2017-18, he’s battled injuries, and has only produced three points in 10 AHL games. At the moment, it would take a dramatic uptick in form in order for Lindblom to earn a one-way contract for next season, let alone a deal that matches the $2.5MM AAV he’s owed on his expiring contract.

The 2020-21 Bill Masterton Trophy winner is still just 27 years old and was once an intriguing power forward prospect, someone who put up 17 goals and 33 points in his rookie season. But since his well-documented health issues sprung up, Lindblom has struggled to regain that form, and as a result, Lindblom’s free agency next summer is difficult to predict.

It would be no surprise to see him earn another shot in the NHL, just as it would also not be a massive shock to see Lindblom return to his native Sweden to play in the SHL if his current struggles continue. When Lindblom was last in the SHL he starred for Brynäs IF, scoring 61 points in 72 combined regular-season and playoff games.

Max Willman, New Jersey Devils

The 28-year-old former Boston University Terrier has had a positive season for his career trajectory so far. After working his way up from the ECHL to the NHL in the Philadelphia Flyers organization, Willman signed with the Devils this past summer to serve as some high-level depth for the team’s forward corps.

Willman’s career-high in scoring at the AHL level is 23 points, and although he managed 19 points in 34 AHL contests in 2021-22, his form last season indicated that he could be the type of player who would play a primarily defensive role and struggle to produce offense regardless of what level he played. So far, Willman’s 2023-24 has eliminated any thought that Willman would end up that sort of forward. He’s already up to 16 points in 20 AHL games, and his form there has earned him five contests in the NHL with the Devils.

If Willman continues his current level of play over the course of a full season, it will likely meaningfully advance him in the eyes of other teams. He’s on pace to fly past his career highs in AHL offensive production, and the NHL games he receives would reinforce the impression that he’s a high-end AHLer/reliable depth NHL forward. Most players who have reached that leaguewide reputation earn more than the $135k AHL salary Willman is owed this season, so his 2023-24 form could very well earn Willman a bump up to a higher AHL pay bracket.

Radim Zohorna, Pittsburgh Penguins

Standing six-foot-six, 220 pounds, Zohorna possesses the exact kind of physical traits NHL teams covet. Unfortunately for him, though, he hasn’t been able to make the most of those athletic tools in North America. As a result, he nears the mid-way point of his free agency platform year on uneven ground.

On one hand, this season has been a positive for Zohorna. He’s back in the NHL after spending all but eight games of 2022-23 in the AHL, and he’s already scored four goals and seven points for the Penguins. When he’s not in the press box as a healthy scratch, Zohorna receives more than 10 minutes of ice time per night and has even gotten looks on the power play.

But on the other hand, Zohorna’s 2023-24 has served as further confirmation of his limits as an NHLer. Zohorna is currently a healthy scratch after seeing his role in head coach Mike Sullivan’s lineup steadily decline, and it’s unclear when he’ll get the chance to dress again for the Penguins. As a result, it’s difficult to at the moment classify Zohorna’s stock as anything but down, at least until he can return to the regular lineup fold in Pittsburgh.

Liam O’Brien, Arizona Coyotes

O’Brien, 29, fills a very specific niche on this upcoming summer’s free agent market. If a team needs grit, toughness, and someone who can stick up for teammates by dropping the gloves, that team should be interested in O’Brien. He’s on pace to register a whopping 187 penalty minutes for the Coyotes this season, alongside his 16-point 82-game scoring pace. O’Brien notched 114 penalty minutes in just 56 games last season, and is one of the more ferocious fighters in the entire NHL.

This season, O’Brien’s ice time has declined a full minute on average per game, but on the flip side of that, he’s not been healthy scratched on nearly as regular a basis. Seeing as teams place significant value on every last available roster spot and cap dollar available to them, it’s fair to wonder whether signing a player such as O’Brien would be a worthy use of your team’s resources. There are teams out there that are looking for exactly what O’Brien offers, though, and it’s with those clubs that he has the highest upside on the open market in the summer.

Brendan Lemieux, Carolina Hurricanes

Now 27 years old, it’s clear Lemieux isn’t going to be the kind of NHL player the Buffalo Sabres were originally hoping he’d become when they selected him 31st overall at the 2014 draft. He’s still carved out an NHL career for himself, though, even if it’s not the one many might have originally imagined for the former Barrie Colts star. Lemieux has played in nearly 300 career NHL games, and has racked up over 500 penalty minutes, with a career-high of 111 in a single season.

Lemieux is what he is, which is an effective agitator. He plays hard, physical hockey and attempts to get under the skin of opposing players. His style has landed him in hot water with the NHL’s Department of Player Safety in the past, though it’s also landed him an NHL contract each and every year of his pro career. So far in Carolina, it’s been more of the same for Lemieux. He was a reserve player for both the Los Angeles Kings and Philadelphia Flyers last season, and is playing in a similar role for Carolina this year. He spent most of November as a healthy scratch and is averaging just over seven minutes of ice time per night, entirely at even strength.

The margins for Lemieux to provide positive on-ice value to an NHL team are relatively small, and Lemieux’s usage and his performance in Carolina so far in 2023-24 has thus far confirmed that fact. At this point, it’s an open question as to whether there will be a market for Lemieux’s services on a one-year deal this upcoming summer.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

The new year is here and the NHL season is in full swing. Teams are jockeying for playoff position, and many players with expiring contracts across the NHL are playing games that could ultimately determine what type of payday they might receive in the summer.

In a multi-part series, we’ll take a look at each position group of the upcoming free agent class, and do a rundown on how those upcoming unrestricted free agents have performed this year. Which players have increased their odds of landing a massive contract? Which players have potentially hurt their earning potential with their play? We’ll break it all down here.

The Marquee Names

Elias Lindholm, Calgary Flames

With Steven Stamkos primarily playing the wing for the Tampa Bay Lightning, Elias Lindholm stands alone atop the class of full-time centers in the upcoming free-agent class. The 29-year-old is entering the first trip to the unrestricted free agent market of his career, and ever since his trade from the Carolina Hurricanes to the Flames, he’s lined himself up nicely for a big payday.

A traditional two-way center who blends offensive ability and defensive responsibility, Lindholm has played a crucial role for the Flames over the last half-decade. This season has been no different. He leads all Flames forwards in time-on-ice per game and ranks just outside the top 10 most heavily utilized forwards across the entire NHL.

He plays a leading role on both sides of the Flames’ special teams, and although Calgary’s power play has struggled, Lindholm’s exemplary work on the penalty kill has contributed to an 84.2% penalty kill rate. That figure ranks sixth in the entire NHL.

Lindholm’s production has fluctuated on a year-to-year basis, leading to some questions as to his true offensive talent level. He scored 42 goals and 82 points in 2021-22, but that was alongside Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk on one of the most talent-rich lines in hockey.

Now without superstar talent on his wings (Jonathan Huberdeau was supposed to be his all-world running mate but the former Panthers’ tenure in Calgary has been nothing short of a disaster), Lindholm has fallen back into more of a 20-plus goal, 60-plus point range. He’s on pace to score 18 goals and 52 points in 82 games, which would make 2023-24 his worst offensive season since his trade from Carolina.

Now nearly 800 games into his NHL career, there’s sufficient evidence to suggest that Lindholm is a player capable of elite production when he has elite linemates, and on his own is capable of scoring at the rate of a quality top-six forward rather than a true headlining play-driver. There’s still quite a bit of value in a standout defensive center who elevates elite linemates, of course, but that also places Lindholm in a different financial conversation on his next contract compared to a high-flying offensive number-one center like John Tavares.

The most significant wild card to Lindholm’s projection for this offseason relates to his team. If the Flames continue down the path toward rebuilding or re-tooling their roster with an eye to the future, Lindholm could very well spend the final few months of the year on another team. He’s scoring at a 52-point pace in Calgary, and finishing the year around that points total would certainly generate some caution among teams considering handing him a massive contract to be their number-one center.

But if he were to get traded to a team with some elite wingers he could center? A team like Boston, for example, where he could center Brad Marchand or David Pastrnak? (or both?) Then the possibility exists for Lindholm to finish his year point-per-game or even above that mark throughout the final twenty or so games of the season, similar to how Andrew Copp finished the year after being traded to the New York Rangers at the 2022 trade deadline.

Moreover, a trade would provide Lindholm with a massive stage to reassure potential free agent suitors that his overall game merits a significant financial investment.

As of right now, though, Lindholm is still in Calgary and it’s hard to say his stock isn’t at least a little bit down given his declined scoring pace. But a trade could change all of that, and could very well earn Lindholm quite a bit of money.

The Solid Contributors

Chandler Stephenson, Vegas Golden Knights

When Lindholm was scoring 78 points in a breakout campaign in 2018-19, Stephenson was struggling in just the second season of his career in the NHL. He had won the Stanley Cup as a rookie with the Washington Capitals the year before, but he found himself in-and-out of the lineup and could only put together 11 points on the season.

Fast forward a little over a half-decade, and Stephenson is slotting in as likely the second-best center on the market for most NHL teams. He got there through a steadfast commitment to defensive hockey as well as an offensive breakout just about nobody saw coming. The Golden Knights reportedly “had a hunch” Stephenson could “excel in a different role” (subscription link) but it’s doubtful they expected a surge past the 60-point plateau.

Stephenson always had offense in his game, but like many former high-flying CHL scorers, the rigors of professional hockey had slowly beaten the offensive flair out of him. By the time he was traded to Vegas at the age of 25, Stephenson’s career-high point total as a professional was 38 in 72 games for the AHL’s Hershey Bears.

That was also just one of two instances where he reached double-digit goals on the season. But now, Stephenson is coming off of a year where he scored 16 goals, 65 points, and an extremely impressive 10 goals and 20 points in 22 playoff games en route to his second Stanley Cup championship.

The right time for Stephenson to hit free agency would undoubtedly have been last summer, as his stock was at a career-high point. While he’s undoubtedly not quite at that high anymore, he’s still in strong shape heading into the free agent market in the summer. His offensive production has declined a touch (he’s on pace for 42 points) but he nonetheless has demonstrated some measure of consistency, posting back-to-back 60-plus point seasons in the prior two campaigns.

Some teams could very well attribute Stephenson’s decline in scoring pace to his change of linemates, as he’s now slotted between Pavel Dorofeyev and Michael Amadio. Those are two quality, ascending players but hardly the big-name talents playing a little higher in Vegas’ lineup. Additionally, teams are likely to be encouraged by the role Stephenson plays and the level of responsibility he takes on. He averages nearly 18:00 time-on-ice per game, skating on both special teams units.

It’s rare for centers who can score 60 or more points as well as play reliable defensive hockey hit the open market. Most of the time, when centers hit the free agent market they come with significant question marks attached or recognized holes in their game. Stephenson doesn’t have the same negative tags, and he’ll likely cash in on the open market as the deals already on Vegas’ books figure to make re-signing him a difficult prospect. That being said, Stephenson’s slight offensive decline is something to monitor moving forward as the sample size of games played this season expands.

Sean Monahan, Montreal Canadiens

If there’s one thing Monahan has proved as a Canadien, it’s that the issue for him has never been about ability. The seven-time 20-goal scorer recently notched his 500th career point and at one point was a headlining star for the Flames, someone who could score around a point-per-game rate. But over the last few seasons, persistent injury issues have absolutely decimated Monahan’s overall value.

A significant aspect of what makes a player valuable to an NHL club is availability. A player can have all the talent in the world, but if he’s not able to actually deliver on that talent in actual games, the talent is ultimately meaningless from a team’s perspective. For Monahan, the battle over the last few seasons has been proving that his injury issues are behind him and that he’s someone an NHL club can once again rely upon to play consistent minutes.

In 2023-24, it’s been so far, so good. He’s currently scoring at a 21-goal, 48-point pace for Montreal, and he plays a regular role around the net/slot area on the Canadiens’ top power-play unit. Once a widely respected defensive player who received Selke Trophy votes, Monahan hasn’t been a force of a defensive stopper in Montreal but nonetheless plays a useful secondary role on their penalty kill.

A versatile forward who can play up and down a lineup, Monahan’s free-agency conversation will be dominated by questions of availability. Given how much time he has missed in recent years, can a team truly afford to commit valuable cap space to Monahan? That’s a question that’ll be asked, and the best thing Monahan can do at this point is just continue to play as he has been playing for the Canadiens. He’s been healthy, productive, and an all-around valuable veteran for the rebuilding side. If he can at the very least continue to do that, he’ll improve his stock heading to free agency.

If he ends up traded and playing a regular role on a playoff contender, he could improve his stock even further.

Jack Roslovic, Columbus Blue Jackets

Each of the centers so far covered on this list has been a player who is generally respected for their defensive play. Lindholm, Stephenson, and Monahan have each earned Selke Trophy votes in their career, but it’s a far different story when it comes to Roslovic. As The Athletic’s Aaron Portzline put it in a November article, “Roslovic always struggled with the two-way responsibilities at center.” (subscription link)

Instead, the reason Roslovic has a $4MM cap hit this season and was once a top prospect is his immense offensive talent. The 26-year-old has shown some of that in the NHL, and has scored 45 and 44 points over the last two years, respectively. But getting that offense on track on a consistent basis has been a challenge.

Still, besides Lindholm and Stephenson, there may not be another player available on the open market in the summer who offers the caliber of offensive game from the center position that Roslovic offers. However, this season has had its fair share of ups and downs for Roslovic, which has likely impacted his stock heading into his free agency.

First and foremost, there’s been something of a position change. Roslovic has traditionally always been a center, but more recently he has seen time along the wings. That time as a winger has brought out defensive improvements, but also comes at the cost of some offense. Additionally, Roslovic missed over a month due to injury, something he didn’t really have to deal with in each of the past two years.

As a result of those two factors, it’s hard to say where Roslovic truly stands heading into potential free agency. He’s an undeniably talented offensive player with two seasons of more than 40 points of production on his resume. He’ll also be just 27 years old in the summer, which places him as one of the younger available players on this list. But alongside those positive attributes come some very real drawbacks, and at the moment the fact that Roslovic is slotted in as a fourth-line winger and on pace to score around 30 points isn’t helping matters.

Tommy Novak, Nashville Predators

Novak has been quite the surprise since the start of 2022-23, as the University of Minnesota product has broken out in a big way for the Predators. The 26-year-old 2015 third-round pick didn’t do a whole lot in his first shot playing NHL games, and scored just seven points in 27 contests.

To that point, Novak looked to be something relatively common: a high-scoring AHLer who can put up points against minor-league competition but would struggle to hold up in a similar role against NHLers.

Then 2022-23 began, and Novak burst through that perception with a stellar season. He scored 17 goals and 43 points in just 51 games after a mid-season call-up, showing that there was more meat to his exemplary AHL form than some might have believed.

So far this season, Novak has dealt with some injuries but remained productive. He’s on pace to score 16 goals and 46 points in 72 games, which isn’t quite the 69-point pace he posted last season but is nonetheless strong production.

Novak is an offensive player who sees time on the Predators power play as his lone special teams usage. His ice time has remained in line with where it was last season, and it will be curious moving forward, now that he is recovered from his injury, to see if Novak’s production bumps up closer to where it was last season.

Financially, Novak’s next contract is hard to project. He doesn’t yet have a full NHL season on his resume, and it’s not entirely clear whether Novak is more of a skilled 50-point player (as he is on pace to be this year) or someone capable of reaching higher echelons of production.

More than for many other, more experienced players on this list, how Novak performs in the rest of 2023-24 will go a long way in determining what sort of contract he signs, whether it be with the Predators or elsewhere.

The Role Players

Alex Wennberg, Seattle Kraken

Wennberg, 29, earned a $4.5MM AAV on a contract in his most recent trip to the unrestricted free agent market, and he has been as advertised for Seattle. He’s provided them with nearly 40 points of production in back-to-back seasons, and he’s also brought the kind of defensive competence the Kraken have needed from a middle-six center.

The 14th overall pick of the 2013 draft has been the Kraken’s leading penalty-killing center over the course of the last two years, and since the start of 2022-23, although in that span Seattle has posted a below-average 77.6% penalty-kill rate. Some of that can be attributed to the Kraken’s consistently below-average goaltending, though.

In any case, Wennberg is a widely respected two-way center who offers a bit of offensive upside, as his career-high in goals is 17 and points is 59. A team could reasonably expect him to adequately hold down a second-line center role in a pinch or excel as a third-line center, and as a result his price tag is likely to be moderately expensive.

Wennberg currently has 15 points in 37 games, which is right around what he typically produces. The best thing for Wennberg’s stock moving forward would be another playoff run for the Kraken. Wennberg scored seven points in the team’s 14-game playoff run last season, and the stage he played on helped enhance his stock league-wide. He weathered difficult defensive minutes in that playoff run, and his work to help shut down a high-flying offensive attack in both Colorado and Dallas nearly brought the Kraken to the Western Conference Final.

If he can do that or something similar in the 2023-24 postseason, Wennberg could help his stock significantly. As of now, though, it’s holding steady.

Jason Dickinson, Chicago Blackhawks

Dickinson, 28, struggled immensely with the Vancouver Canucks in 2021-22, and was exiled to the Chicago Blackhawks, who received a second-round pick just to take on his $2.65MM AAV contract.

That was undoubtedly the low point in Dickinson’s NHL career. So far in 2023-24, one could call this season the high point in Dickinson’s NHL career.

While the Blackhawks have struggled immensely as a team this season, Dickinson has played some of the best hockey of his life.

He’s already up to 12 goals on the year, which marks the first time he’s scored double-digit NHL goals in his career.

His red-hot start to the year paces him to score 27 in a full 82-game season, and while it’s unlikely he will sustain his 23.1% shooting percentage, a 20 or even 25-goal season is very much in the cards.

In addition to the timely goal scoring and offensive bump, Dickinson is also playing a bigger role than he has before in his NHL career. He’s averaging 15:35 time-on-ice per game and is Chicago’s leading penalty-killer at the forward position.

The Blackhawks’ penalty kill has been quite poor over the last two years, of course, but the trust Luke Richardson places in Dickinson to handle tough defensive assignments is a more appropriate reflection of the player’s merits as a defensive forward.

Dickinson’s issue heading into the open market is twofold: first and foremost, some teams may question the sustainability of Dickinson’s offensive breakout. The history of NHL free agency is littered with cautionary tales of teams investing in breakout goal scorers whose true talent level as an offensive player is masked by a far higher-than-average shooting percentage. Additionally, the significant role Dickinson plays on a rebuilding team in Chicago may not be one other teams will sign him to play.

That being said, it’s hard to say Dickinson’s time in Chicago has done anything but enhance his leaguewide standing. The Blackhawks have given him a platform to remind teams what he can do at the NHL level, and he’s run with it.

Should he get traded to a playoff contender, a big showing on the major stage that is the NHL playoffs would further enhance his free-agent stock. Dickinson has already played in a Stanley Cup Final, and another deep playoff run would be the cherry on top of what has been, so far, the best season in Dickinson’s career.

Teddy Blueger, Vancouver Canucks

Blueger is in a somewhat similar position to Dickinson. The Latvian pivot is in his late twenties, is a respected defensive bottom-six forward, and is on pace for a breakout offensive season.

For Blueger, achieving new offensive heights has been less about personal goal-scoring and more about elevating his linemates. Blueger’s effectiveness in the defensive zone and ability to help recover pucks and transition to attacking play has helped his linemates spend less time pinned in their own end and more time playing offensive hockey.

He’s gotten the chance to play with some talented offensive players such as Conor Garland, and the result is clear: Blueger is on pace to shatter his career-high of 28 points, as he’s scored 13 points in 22 games. That current scoring pace, taking into account the time he’s missed this season puts him on pace to score 15 goals and 40 points in 68 games.

In addition to his improved offensive form, Blueger handles a difficult defensive role for head coach Rick Tocchet. He’s skating the second-most short-handed ice time of any Canucks forward and according to Natural Stat Trick, he’s starting the lowest percentage of shifts in the offensive zone of any Canucks forward.

Blueger has been asked to do a lot this season, and he’s responded with what has been the best start to a season in his career. If he keeps things up, he’ll be in phenomenal shape heading into free agency. If he can put together a deep playoff run on the massive stage that is playoff hockey in a Canadian market, he’ll do even better.

Nick Bonino, New York Rangers

Set to turn 36 in April, it’s likely that Bonino has hit the stage in his NHL career where he’s exclusively signing one-year contracts with clubs. Even with that in mind, Bonino’s 2023-24 has a chance to earn him a raise next summer from the $800k cap hit he’s currently playing on.

The veteran two-way center is currently the third-line center on one of the NHL’s best teams, though he’ll likely slot in as a fourth-line center when Filip Chytil returns from injury. In any case, his work for head coach Peter Laviolette has been strong.

Although he’s not scoring very much, Bonino shoulders more defensive responsibility than just about any other Rangers bottom-sixer. He’s playing the most time on the team’s penalty kill of any forward, and his work there has helped the Rangers have the fifth-best shorthanded unit in the entire NHL this season.

In addition, Bonino is winning 51.3% of his draws, which has contributed to the Rangers’ third-ranked team-wide face-off win percentage. The Rangers appear geared for a long playoff run, something that Bonino is no stranger to.

If he can keep up how he’s playing this season and once again find himself deep in the NHL playoffs, he could be one of the top options on the open market for a team looking to sign a veteran bottom-six center with just a one-year commitment.

Tomáš Nosek, New Jersey Devils

Seeing as Nosek has played in just six NHL games this season due to injuries, and none since November 18th, it’s hard to say his free agent stock is anywhere other than where it was last season.

The 31-year-old bottom-six center is a quality veteran who has appeared in the playoffs in every single season of his professional hockey career, dating back to his time playing in the Czech Extraliga. He brings some size, can kill penalties, and won nearly 60% of his draws last season.

He only received a one-year, $1MM commitment last summer, which was somewhat surprising as he figured to be among the top bottom-six players available on the market. However, teams only want to commit so many dollars to a player who, despite all his merits, has never even hit 20 points in a single NHL season.

It’s hard to imagine Nosek’s market being dramatically different this summer, although the upcoming salary cap increase could help him. It’s just a shame, then, that Nosek’s poor luck with injuries could keep him from entering free agency on the strongest footing.

Kevin Stenlund, Florida Panthers

After spending most of 2021-22 in the AHL, Stenlund finally became a full-time NHLer the following year with the Winnipeg Jets. The Jets were optimistic that the rangy six-foot-five forward would be able to utilize his size and physicality to become an effective bottom-six player in the NHL.

Stenlund ended up playing in 54 games for the Jets and saw time on the second unit of their penalty kill. That was the most extensive NHL role he’d ever received, and the Panthers invested in his career year by signing him to a one-year, $1MM NHL deal.

Stenlund has played a similar role for the Panthers as he did for the Jets, albeit on a more regular basis. Stenlund has entrenched himself as the team’s fourth-line center, playing in between two physical, hard-working players in Ryan Lomberg and Will Lockwood

He doesn’t receive much opportunity to make an offensive impact, but the regular minutes and consistent linemates he’s received in Florida have nonetheless led to an improved scoring pace. He’s currently on pace to score 14 goals and 19 points, which would be a career-high.

Stenlund is currently playing on the Panthers’ penalty kill, a unit that ranks eighth in the NHL. He receives a healthy dose of defensive zone starts, and his work there has helped the Panthers’ overall defensive game.

Florida plays an aggressive style that features a lot of activation from defensemen, which can lead to defensive vulnerabilities. Stenlund has been tasked with playing as a defensive specialist in that environment, and he’s excelled.

Seeing as he won’t turn 28 until next September and offers the size NHL teams covet, it wouldn’t be surprising to see an active market for Stenlund’s services next summer, especially if he can help the Panthers go on another deep postseason run.

Fredrik Olofsson, Colorado Avalanche

Another in our run of fourth-line centers, Olofsson currently occupies that role for the Avalanche. He’s playing secondary penalty-killing minutes as well, though his role as a whole is moderately smaller than that of Stenlund or Bonino.

The six-foot-two 27-year-old was an offseason trade acquisition from the Dallas Stars who played an up-and-down role in Dallas last season, splitting time between the NHL and AHL. This year has been his first as a full-time NHLer, and he’s been able to handle the fourth-line center role for the Avalanche while playing on a league-minimum $775k cap hit.

An import from IK Oskarshamn in the SHL, Olofsson’s lack of offense and limited overall role outside of just defense means that he’s unlikely to offer much surplus value the higher his cap hit rises from the league minimum.

That being said, this season has gone a long way toward helping Olofsson’s free agent standing. He’s slowly establishing himself as a full-time NHLer and if he can hold onto his current job over the course of the full year, he could very well enter free agency as a regular bottom-six staple on a playoff team. That tagline sounds quite a bit different from depth forward who splits time between the NHL and AHL.

Oskar Sundqvist, St. Louis Blues

Sundqvist, 29, arrived in St. Louis this past summer on a one-year, league-minimum contract. He’s been the team’s defensive specialist at the center position, a relatively important role seeing that the Blues other three pivots (Robert Thomas, Brayden Schenn, and Kevin Hayes) are all offensive players.

Like many of the other players listed in this section, Sundqvist checks all the boxes of a bottom-six center. He’s got size, playoff experience, and handles defensive responsibility both at even strength and on the penalty kill. Injuries have slowed him down a bit in recent years, though, which contributed to a lighter market for his services than he otherwise may have had.

He’s already scored 13 points so far this year, so a fully healthy campaign in which he produces around 30 points could see him land a raise from his $775k cap hit this year.

Tyler Johnson, Chicago Blackhawks

The 33-year-old Johnson stands virtually no chance of matching the $5MM cap hit he’s currently playing on when he hits free agency. That doesn’t mean he can’t offer something to other NHL teams, although his form on a poor Blackhawks team has muddied his standing heading into free agency.

Johnson scored 12 goals and 32 points last season, suggesting that he could still play in a middle-six scoring role in the NHL. He’s put up those numbers (he’s on pace to score 30 points this season) while receiving second-unit power-play ice time, though, so it’s not as though he’s breaking through playing just even-strength minutes.

Seeing as he’s undersized, does not contribute meaningfully defensively, and will be 34 by the time the season starts in the fall, it’s difficult to imagine a robust market for Johnson’s services this summer. He does already have nine goals, though, so perhaps if he can keep up his current 15.5% shooting percentage a big goal-scoring year could help him.

Others Of Note

Sam Carrick, Anaheim Ducks

Like some of the other players listed in the section above, Carrick has recently established himself as a full-time NHLer and is currently occupying a fourth-line center role that comes with significant defensive responsibility.

The issue for Carrick, though, is that he has two things working against him that players such as Olofsson or Stenlund do not. Firstly, he’s going to turn 32 in February, meaning he’s at a later stage in his career compared to those players next to him on the market. There’s an argument to be made that he’s exiting his prime, while Stenlund or Olofsson are just beginning their peak years.

In addition, Carrick is shouldering his defensive role on a bad Anaheim Ducks team. While Olofsson and Stenlund’s play has led to strong outcomes for their line and their team, Carrick is a defensive specialist for one of the league’s worst teams.

That likely will lead to questions as to whether Carrick is the caliber of player who can handle that role for a team with legitimate Stanley Cup aspirations. A trade to a contender could help him, though in that case then there is always the risk for Carrick that he doesn’t end up playing as big of a role as he did in Anaheim.

Jonny Brodzinski, New York Rangers

Brodzinski, 30, has helped himself more than most other players on the AHL/NHL bubble this season.

The captain of the AHL’s Hartford Wolf Pack, Brodzinski seized the opportunity created by injuries to other New York Rangers and has already scored a career-high eight points in just 16 games.

The speedy, hard-working forward plays alongside Bonino and Will Cuylle on the Rangers’ third line, and he has shown the ability to play higher in the lineup in a pinch.

He scored 25 points in 16 AHL games en route to his call-up, showcasing his abilities as an elite AHL scorer as well.

He won’t earn a massive contract in free agency, of course, but he could find himself in a similar position to the one his Wolf Pack teammate Alex Belzile was in last summer.

Belzile seized on the best NHL opportunity of his career and was rewarded for it with a two-year contract featuring a hefty $450k AHL salary this season and a full one-way $775k salary next year.

Brodzinski currently makes the league minimum in the NHL and $325k in the AHL. His play so far this season has lined him up nicely for a significant raise in AHL salary on his next contract if not a full one-way deal.

Travis Boyd, Arizona Coyotes

While 2023-24 has been kind to a player like Brodzinski, it’s been the opposite story for Boyd. After scoring 35 and 34 points in 2021-22 and 2022-23, respectively, Boyd’s 2023-24 campaign is likely a lost one due to an upper-body injury.

That means the versatile 30-year-old will enter free agency without the value of a strong platform season. Even before the injury, there were some warning signs that could worry interested teams. Boyd’s eight points in 16 games are in line with recent years, but his ice time crashed from nearly 17 minutes per game over the last two years to just 9:37 per game this year.

While Boyd was used as a secondary penalty killer last season, his time on that unit evaporated this year. Combine that significantly lowered role with his potentially season-ending injury, and 2023-24 starts to look more and more like a significant setback for Boyd’s free agent stock.

Tyson Jost, Buffalo Sabres

Jost is another player who has had a difficult start to 2023-24, and likely seen that difficult start damage his free agent stock. The former top prospect recently cleared waivers and is on his first AHL assignment since 2018-19.

Jost is still just 25 years old, but his time in Buffalo has suggested he may not be as capable of regular bottom-six duty in the NHL as previously believed. A strong stretch in the AHL is essential, as he’ll need to earn his way back into the NHL and play improved hockey there to enter the market in the best position possible this summer.

Steven Lorentz, Florida Panthers

Lorentz was acquired by the Panthers this past summer in the Anthony Duclair trade, and he was slated to compete with Stenlund for the fourth-line center role that Stenlund eventually won. The six-foot-four grinder established himself as an NHL regular in 2020-21 and has not been in the AHL since 2019-20.

Lorentz has some playoff experience and had a career year offensively in 2022-23 by scoring 10 goals and 19 points in 81 games for the San Jose Sharks. This season, Lorentz began the year on the team’s fourth line, but after producing just three points in 25 games, the Panthers turned to Lockwood. Lockwood does not offer the size Lorentz does, but he plays at a higher pace and his quickness and work ethic are valued by head coach Paul Maurice enough to keep Lorentz out of the lineup.

If Lorentz spends the bulk of this season as a spare forward rather than a regular fourth-liner, his stock will be lower heading into the first unrestricted free agency of Lorentz’s career.

Mitchell Stephens, Montreal Canadiens

Injuries have landed Stephens back in the NHL after a one-year absence, and he’s now slotting in as the Canadiens’ fourth-line center. While he’s not receiving very much time-on-ice, he does sometimes play a cameo on the penalty kill and remains in head coach Martin St. Louis’ regular lineup for the time being.

For a 26-year-old player like Stephens, going a second consecutive season without a single NHL game played would be dangerous for his ability to earn the type of contract he’s currently playing on, which is a two-way NHL deal with a $300K AHL salary.

This stretch as the Canadiens’ fourth-line center has reminded NHL teams that Stephens can capably fill in as an AHL top-six center and premier call-up option, which means this season has already been a useful one for Stephens’ free-agent prospects.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images