Five Candidates For Training Camp Invitations

Free agency doesn’t always work the way a player hopes it does. Every year, a handful of established veterans struggle to find contracts, and have to prove themselves all over again in training camp to get themselves on a team’s roster. Here are five players who may be looking at that possibility.

  • Brad Boyes: Boyes fought went to training camp and fought for a contract with the Maple Leafs last year, after being bought out by the Florida Panthers. The eight goals, 24 points in 60 games he put up were less than stellar, and he’s 34 years old now, but he’s got a long history of scoring, and he was averaging under 12 minutes a game in Toronto. He’s got a good history of point production, and even with a decline, would be worth a look for a team that wants to gain some scoring on the margin.
  •  RJ Umberger: It’s been a rough couple of years for RJ Umberger. Since being dealt back to Philadelphia for Scott Hartnell in 2014, the 34 year old has totalled 12 goals, 26 points in 106 games. He was bought by the Flyers in June. There’s really no telling if Umberger can rehabilitate his career, but a five-time 20 goal scorer with size and a physical edge is usually going to get at least a look.
  •  Radim Vrbata: Vrbata needing this opportunity already is a little baffling. He’s had one off year when healthy in a decade, and he’s a reliable offensive option. 13 goals and 27 points might not look like a ton, but the Canucks struggled a lot, and his shooting percentage was far below normal. Couple that with the fact that he played just 63 games, and there’s reason to think that even at 35, Vrbata could be able to provide some value for the right team.
  •  James Wisniewski: It’s so much harder to establish yourself in camp as a defenseman, because so much of what they do is so subtle. Positioning and pokechecks don’t let you stand out in a desperate situation. Wisniewski though, has far fewer of these problems. He’s long been a solid offensive presence, and despite being just 5’11”, he plays a decent physical game as well. He’ll have trouble getting a deal before a tryout, because he missed 81 games last year with a knee injury, but if you’re looking for bodies on the blueline, his direction would be a good place to look.
  •  Alex Tanguay : It’s surprisingly easy to forget just how good a career Alex Tanguay has had. Despite some injuries and some bad teams, as well as bouncing around the league, by the age of 37, he’s been able to put up 283 goals, 863 points in 1088 career games. He struggled last year on an Avalanche team that had issues all over, but then put up four goals and 13 points in 18 games after being traded to the Arizona Coyotes. Considering his long history of scoring, if Tanguay wants one last shot to play in the NHL, he should certainly be able to find someone to give him that shot.

The NHL Can’t Have A Kevin Durant, Not Just Because Of The Cap

After NBA superstar Kevin Durant joined the record-breaking 73 win Golden State Warriors in free agency this year, a major question around all sports was whether it come happen outside of the NBA. It’s rare to see the best players join an already loaded team, but this is the second time this decade it’s happened in the NHL. So, you may ask, is it possible in hockey?

The NHL salary cap is more restrictive, and teams leave themselves with less room to work. NBA contract are a maximum of four or five years, so you don’t see declining former stars on the seventh or eighth years of their contracts weighing down their team’s cap situation. You’re also far less likely, in the NBA, to see depth players signed to longer term deals for significant money. Because there are certain mild exemptions to the NBA salary cap, like the ability to go over the cap if you pay a player the minimum allowable salary for a veteran, a team can, in theory, start an off-season with very few players on the roster, load up, and fill out the team with any of the many useful free agents willing to play for a chance to win a championship.

That’s not the only problem with the idea, but it relates to the next one. If NHL free agency was more similar to baseball, and players often signed purely for the highest bidder, free agency would be more active in general. Had Steven Stamkos decided he cared most about money, he could have joined the Toronto Maple Leafs or Buffalo Sabres. Because the monetary difference is smaller, and the best teams in hockey vary less year to year than in baseball, hockey players look for situations where they can win. This is similar to how NBA free agency works, but because of a more restrictive cap, it’s not like a player like Stamkos can look around find another legitimate contender willing to pay him more money. While it’ reported the Western Conference champion San Jose Sharks were involved, it would have been hard to offer any more money than the Lightning, and with many of the Sharks best players getting older, it makes more sense for Stamkos to stay where he is. Other regulars in contention, the Los Angeles Kings, Chicago Blackhawks, Anaheim Ducks, St. Louis Blues, and Pittsburgh Penguins, plainly lacked the money to do so.

There’s also the difficulty of making it to free agency to begin with. A player can hit free agency at 25 if he starts in the NHL at 18, 26 for 19 year old debutants, and 27 for all others. Teams carry extraordinary leverage beyond that, and push for longer deals. If you have a player who ends the league at 19, and he plays out his rookie deal, and the team is impressed enough to push for an eight year deal, the player has little leverage to fight for a shorter deal, especially before arbitration, and risks any number of career and production threatening injuries trying to get a deal that makes them a free agent before they turn 30. In a physical sport like hockey, as much as the team wants to avoid a scenario where their star players hit free agency in their mid-twenties, players aren’t going to rush to turn down long term job security for a chance at cashing in, or playing with their friends, in their home towns, or for a contender any time soon.

The final point to remember is that if the NHL had a super-team, nobody would notice. In the NBA game, the starters play a higher percentage of the minutes, and the knowledge that Steph Curry, Kevin Durrant, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green are all on the floor at once is a constant. The Red Wings and Blackhawks both added Marian Hossa to loaded teams, and the Penguins last summer acquired Phil Kessel. But there are just so many minutes that end up geting played by bottom of the roster players, even a team as loaded as Pittsburgh is going to end up having times where the skaters on the ice are five guys you’ve never heard of.

If you’re a team looking to get a big name free agent who can impact your team in a serious way, there’s probably one way, and thats building a contender with low payroll contenders. It helps if, like the Blackhawks a few years ago, you manage to become that contender while your stars are on rookie deals. They managed to bring in Hossa, Brian Campbell, and Cristobal Huet. If you commit your money and term to the very best players, your depth is fairly easy to replace year in and year out, and it provides that flexibility. But until that happens, there’s not a great reason for the biggest names to test the market, or even think about some kind of super-team.

Week In Review: 7/18/16 – 7/24/16

With the excitement of free agency mostly over, NHL teams are now taking care of housekeeping items like avoiding arbitration hearings with their remaining RFAs. Here’s a look back at the week that was.

Trades

July 18 – New York Rangers acquire C Mika Zibanejad and a 2018 2nd round pick from the Ottawa Senators in exchange for C Derick Brassard and a 2018 7th round pick.

Notable Signings

Marcus Johansson (Capitals) – avoided arbitration with a three-year, $13.75MM contract.
Mikhail Grigorenko (Avalanche) – the RFA forward signed a one-year contract worth $1.3MM before his arbitration hearing.
Chris Kreider (Rangers) – agreed to a four-year, $18.5MM contract, avoiding arbitration.
Kevin Hayes (Rangers) – avoided arbitration by signing a two-year contract worth $5.2MM.
Connor Carrick (Maple Leafs) – unlike many of the weeks signings, Carrick was not eligible for arbitration. He signed a two-year, $1.5MM contract.
Luke Schenn (Coyotes) – signed a two-year, $2.5MM contract in Arizona after splitting last season between the Flyers and Kings. Schenn was ranked 30th on our Top 50 Unrestricted Free Agents List.

Waivers

Jordan Schroeder (Wild) – cleared waivers, then settled on a new one-year, $650K contract prior to his arbitration hearing.
Peter Holland (Maple Leafs) – Holland is not expected to be back with the Maple Leafs next season after clearing waivers ahead of his upcoming arbitration hearing.

Notable Prospect Signings

Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs) – three-year entry-level deal
Jack Roslovic (Jets) – three-year entry-level deal

Retirements

Brad Richards (Red Wings) – The veteran center announced his retirement on July 20. Richards scored 932 points in 1126 NHL games with the Detroit Red Wings, Chicago Blackhawks, New York Rangers, Dallas Stars, and the Tampa Bay Lightning. Richards won two Stanley Cups: 2004 with the Lightning and 2015 with the Blackhawks. Richards was the Conn Smythe Trophy winner in 2004.

Latest On Kris Russell’s Free Agency

After being the topic of much speculation in the first few days of free agency, Kris Russell has been left out of rumors for the past few weeks. Today, we got the first bit of news in a while on him when Andy Strickland tweeted that “a few teams continue to eye Kris Russell” but need to move money in order to fit him in. Strickland doesn’t list any particular teams, but one can assume at least a handful would still have interest in the 29-year old.

It must seem like a long offseason so far for the former Dallas Stars’ blueliner as he continues to wait on a contract – early reports had him seeking at least $5MM a season, but it’s hard to see any team offering up that much at this point.

Russell looks like he might be the first real casualty of an league-wide turn towards analytics, as his best attribute – blocking shots – is being downplayed more and more as possession metrics come to the forefront of NHL analysis. Russell was once thought of as a promising young defender, but has fallen far out of that conversation.

Now, with teams moving to more mobile, positional back-ends, Russell finds himself one of the last men standing in free agency.  The team that finally signs him might end up getting a deal at this point, since even if he’s not a top-four guy like many once thought he was, he is still a capable NHL defender who is young enough to contribute for the next few seasons.

Arbitration Breakdown: Chris Kreider

With the clock ticking down, the New York Rangers and the camp for Chris Kreider have filed their respective briefs in advance of Friday’s scheduled arbitration hearing, as we earlier reported on Pro Hockey Rumors. The Rangers offered a figure of $3.2MM while Kreider has requested $4.75MM in salary for the 2016-17 campaign.

The apparently wide gulf is indicative of a typical negotiating ploy being utilized by both parties. Kreider’s side comes in on the high end while the club submits a lower number, each with the knowledge that arbitrators typically award a number comfortably between the two positions. Should this actually go to a hearing, and there is every reason to believe negotiations on a long-term deal are being conducted as we speak, the arbitrator likely would award a one-year salary of around $4MM, roughly near the midpoint of the figures exchanged.

If we operate under the supposition both sides are willing to do a long term deal, what would Kreider then be worth?

Kreider’s is an interesting case. Still just 25, the former Boston College standout and former first-round pick possesses a rare blend of size, speed and skill. The six-foot-three, 226-pound winger is among the fastest straight line skaters in the game today and creates numerous scoring chances due solely to his physical skills. When fully engaged, Kreider has the ability to dominate entire games with his speed and physicality.

Following a 21-goal performance during the 2014-15 campaign, it was believed Kreider might finally be realizing his vast potential and a 30-goal season was considered the logical next step in his development. But Kreider struggled with consistency in 2015-16, an all-too-frequent experience during his burgeoning career (and frankly one shared by many young players), and needed five tallies in his final eight games to match his 2014-15 output.

Still, 20-goal scorers in their prime and with additional offensive upside are not cheap. Fortunately, a couple of recent RFA signings can be used for comparative purposes to help determine just how much Kreider may be worth.

Kyle Palmieri recently inked a five-year deal with New Jersey that comes with an AAV of $4.65MM per season. Palmieri is coming off a better platform campaign than Kreider, tallying career highs in both goals with 30 and points with 57.

Meanwhile, Washington Capitals forward Marcus Johansson, avoided arbitration by agreeing to a three-year, $13.75MM contract which averages out to just under $4.6MM annually. Johansson finished the 2015-16 season with 17 goals and 46 points.

On the surface both would seem to serve as obvious comparables. And while their contracts certainly help us hone in on Kreider’s potential value, the big winger has some advantages over his peers that could boost his value.

First, even though Kreider’s 43-point 2015-16 output falls short of Palmieri (57) and Johansson (46), his 1.85 points/60 at five-on-five (5v5) scoring rate over the last two seasons is superior. Johansson has recorded a 1.68 points/60 at 5v5 and Palmieri comes in at 1.55 over that same time frame.

Second, Kreider already has extensive postseason experience and has excelled when it matters most. He’s potted 20 goals in 65 playoff contests since debuting during the 2011-12 postseason, scoring his first playoff goal a week before his 21st birthday. Palmieri has tallied seven goals in 33 postseason games. Johansson also has seven playoff goals, albeit in 56 contests.

The New York Rangers relatively quiet foray into free agency, and the recent trade of Derick Brassard to Ottawa for Mika Zibanejad, has left the Rangers with $10.65MM in cap space according to General Fanager. With only Kevin Hayes and Marek Hrivik remaining unsigned as RFAs, it seems reasonable to conclude the Rangers have the financial wherewithal to offer a deal in the range of $5MM annually for five years. This would allow the club to buy three unrestricted free agent seasons and lock up one of their top young players through his prime years at what could be a very affordable price should he ever meet his 30-goal potential. Even as a 20-goal scorer, the cost wouldn’t be too out of line with what is paid on the open market.

 

 

Minor NHL Transactions: 7/20/2016

Here is where we will keep track of the day’s minor moves:

  • The Florida Panthers, via their team website, have announced the re-signing of forward Logan Shaw to a one-year, two-way contract. The six-foot-three, 202-pound Shaw saw action in 53 games with the Panthers in 2015-16, netting 5 goals and 7 points. He also appeared in 19 contests with the Portland Pirates (AHL) where he tallied 11 goals and 14 points. With the Panthers among the more active teams this summer, adding talent via both free agency and the trade market, it would seem the roster is pretty set meaning Shaw is likely to serve as a depth piece in 2016-17, much as he did this past season.
  • Veteran center T.J. Hensick is set to join the Ontario Reign, the AHL affiliate of the Los Angeles Kings, according to the L.A Kings Insider website. Hensick last appeared in the NHL back during the 2010-11 campaign while a member of the St. Louis Blues. He split the past campaign with Utica and Charlotte of the AHL, scoring 40 points in 65 games. Hensick played with Kings prospect Adrian Kempe for MODO in the Swedish Hockey League in 2013-14, suggesting his familiarity with one of the club’s top prospects played a role in this signing.
  • Arizona has hired former NHL goalie Doug Soetaert to be the General Manager of their AHL affiliate, the Tucson Roadrunners. Most recently, Soetaert was a professional scout in the Arizona organization covering the western region. Prior to that, Soetaert plied his trade in Europe, scouting all professional leagues on the continent as well as the AHL. Soetaert also has extensive experience in the North American junior leagues, serving as Vice President and General Manager of the Everett Silvertips of the Western Hockey League from 2002 – 2012. During his playing days, Soetaert appeared in 284 games as a member of the New York Rangers (two stints), Winnipeg Jets and Montreal Canadiens.

Potential Undrafted And Non-NHL Free Agents In 2017

Every year there’s a crop of players across European leagues, the NCAA, and Canadian major junior who, having gone undrafted multiple times, are eligible to sign with any team. This year, for example, the Panthers signed Moose Jaw Warriors left wing Dryden Hunt, and the Maple Leafs signed CSKA Moscow defenseman Nikita Zaitsev. In the past, undrafted free agents to garner attention included Artemi Panarin, Tyler Bozak, Ben Bishop, Jonas Gustavsson, Jiri Sekac, and Danny DeKeyser. While they garnered less attention at the time, Dan Boyle, Martin St. Louis, and Tim Thomas all had successful NHL careers after signing out of college or Europe, though Thomas was drafted and merely unwanted for a decade before he hit the NHL.

So, what players would be eligible to sign contracts next year, and could intrigue teams? Many will be heavily based on a strong season in 2016-17, but here are a few to start keeping your eye on. Spelling of names may be off due to varied sources in translating from different alphabets.

Vadim Shipachev (Center, St. Petersburg SKA, KHL) – This may be cheating a little, since he’s already garnered so much attention, and has been heavily linked to the Montreal Canadiens. Still, he has one year left on his KHL deal, and may, similarly to Zaitsev this past season, play out his contract and sign in Montreal next year. He’ll be thirty next year, but he’s coming off consecutive seasons of over a point per game, and has topped that mark three of the last five seasons.

Jan Kovar (Forward, Magnitogorsk Metallburg, KHL) – Kovar play on a line with two elite KHL scorers in Sergei Mozyakin and Denis Zarapov, both off this list mostly due to their age, both having turned 35 in March. Still, Kovar has finished third, first, and second on Magnitigorsk in scoring since joining them, and being much younger, at 26, it’s worth taking a chance that he’s the one driving the bus. He has 188 points in 172 KHL games, and was very successful earlier in his career, playing in the Czech Republic.

Igor Averin (Left Wing, Yaroslavl Lokomotiv, KHL) – Averin, 26, has steadily improved as a goal scorer his entire career, with a variety of different linemates, finishing in the top ten in KHL goals this year with 21 in 49 games. His problem, should he seek a contract in the NHL, is that he’s 5’10”, and doesn’t project to be an elite scorer. Many teams prefer size and defense among their depth players, rather than having additional skill players.

Daniil Apalikov (Forward, Yaroslavl Lokomotiv, KHL) – Another steadily improving player, albeit younger at 24, Apalikov had a breakout year for Lokomotiv, scoring 43 points in 59 games, including 16 goals. That’s not world beating at first glance, but KHL players put up more similar points per game ratios when joining the NHL than many think, and he played for a lower scoring team. He’s put up similar numbers to former teammate Sergei Plotnikov, who became a useful player for the Penguins and Coyotes this year, after signing in Pittsburgh in 2015,  though almost entirely in a defensive sense.

Nicholas Schilkey (Forward, Ohio State University, NCAA) – Schilkey is going into his senior year for the Buckeyes, and put up an impressive 41 points in 36 games last year. It was his first big season in college, meaning he’s going to have to prove himself this year, but his numbers this year were better than a comparatively aged Tyler Bozak put up in college in 2008.

Justin Kloos (Center, University of Minnesota, NCAA) – Kloos put up a strong 2016 season, at 22, he scored 43 points in 37 games, albeit with two teammates, Sabres’ prospect Hudson Faschinghttp://www.hockey-reference.com/players/f/faschhu01.html and the also undrafted Leon Birstedt, tied for third in Big Ten goals with 20.. Still, Kloos put up 16 goals himself, and led the team in points. He’s another smaller player, but given the history of undrafted free agents, like Martin St. Louis, it’s worth taking a chance on a smaller player who you can develop in the AHL for a year.

Calgary Notes: Monahan And Gaudreau

Restricted free agent (RFA) center Sean Monahan says contract talks with Calgary are “getting there”.

Monahan told TSN’s Gino Reda “I definitely want to be there for a long time”, adding he wants to play in Calgary for the rest of his career. He said his preference is a long-term deal, but noted that’s not up to him. The Flames are currently in negotiations with both Monahan and fellow RFA (and leading scorer) Johnny Gaudreau, but will need to be careful with regards to the salary cap.

Currently, the Flames have over $14MM in cap space before signing Gaudreau and Monahan. They should get some relief next summer, with pending UFAs Dennis Wideman, Ladislav Smid, and Deryk Engelland freeing up $11.66MM. However, newly-acquired starting goalie Brian Elliott and young forward Sam Bennett will need new contracts. The Flames also need to improve their team, following their fifth place finish in the Pacific Division.

When asked about the possibility of taking a hometown discount to help build a contender, Monahan agreed that it was part of his thought process, saying “if you’re a high-end player and you’re playing somewhere at a young age, that’s where your heart is and where you want to win.”

Monahan says he’s been in contact with Gaudreau and was scheduled to meet with him Monday night to “have a little chat”. The two are good friends and not battling about salary negotiations, according to Monahan.

“Our goal is to bring the Stanley Cup to Calgary… if we can bring other players in and have a little extra money… to help us be a better team, that’s the idea.

Monahan is coming off back to back 60-plus point seasons, while Gaudreau has scored 64 and 78 points in his first two NHL seasons.

Free Agent Profile: Alex Tanguay

Alex Tanguay is one of the top remaining point producers left on the open market but more than two weeks into the free agency period, he hasn’t received much interest around the league.  Here is a closer look at his situation.

Tanguay is one of the oldest forwards still available but has a proven track record of producing, even as he gets older.  Last year with Colorado and Arizona, Tanguay recorded eight goals and 27 assists in 70 games including 13 points in 18 games with the Coyotes after being acquired.  Over the past three years, he has averaged 0.61 points per game which is still above average and is even more impressive when you consider that most of those points came at even strength.  In his career, he has 283 goals and 580 assists in 1,088 NHL games between Colorado, Calgary, Montreal, Tampa Bay, and Arizona.

So why is he still unsigned?  For starters, his age (36) works against him, as does the fact he plays smaller than his size and is showing signs of slowing down.  Tanguay also isn’t the best of players in his own end which limits the type of role he can succeed in down to a second or third line with some other two-way players.

Potential Suitors

At this point, Tanguay would fit somewhere on a team that has a short-term vacancy in an offensive role where he could serve as a placeholder for another player or prospect later on in the season or on a team that is lacking in forward depth.  Teams that fit one of those criteria include Ottawa, Montreal, Arizona (where we originally predicted he’d sign), Anaheim, and Minnesota.

Projected Contract

Tanguay ranked 33rd on our Top 50 UFA list and we had originally projected that he wouldn’t have as much difficulty getting a contract as he has and that he’d stay with the Coyotes as a veteran mentor for $2.5MM.  At this stage of free agency, where teams tend to wait out the remaining UFA’s, it’s highly unlikely he will be able to get that much.  A one year pact closer to $1MM even is looking more likely at this point considering who else is still available and that some teams have filled out their rosters.

Lightning Re-Sign Alex Killorn

1:02 pm: The Lightning have officially announced the signing.  The contract contains a full no-trade clause in years two, three, and four plus a modified no-trade clause in the final three years, according to Cap Friendly.

11:26 am: Elliotte Friedman reports this morning that the Tampa Bay Lightning and restricted free agent Alex Killorn have come to terms on a seven-year deal worth about $31MM. Killorn had filed for arbitration earlier this month, but the two sides appear to have reached a mutual agreement. The 26-year-old joins Steven StamkosVictor Hedman, and Andrei Vasilevskiy as core players that the Lightning have extended this off-season. The Lightning still have to find the cap space to re-sign fellow RFAs Vladislav Nemestnikov (who also filed for arbitration), Nikita Kucherovand Nikita Nesterov. As of now, it appears that the Killorn deal has left them $8.53MM to do so.

Killorn, who was drafted by Tampa Bay in the third round of the 2007 Draft, is Canadian, but took an unusual path to becoming an NHL prospect. Instead of playing junior hockey in Canada, Killorn instead played prep school hockey for Deerfield Academy in Massachusetts. He then took his talents to Harvard University, where he played for four years. Killorn jumped right into the NHL out of college, splitting his first pro season in 2012-13 between the Lightning and their AHL affiliate, the Syracuse Crunch, who he helped lead to the Calder Cup finals. He became a full-time NHLer the next season, and has cemented himself as part of a strong young core that has led the Lightning to back-to-back deep playoff runs the past two seasons.

Some may be surprised by the seven-year term for a player about to turn 27 who has averaged about 40 points a season in the NHL, but with all of the players that the Lighting have to re-sign this summer and next summer, the longer term allows the team to keep the cap hit down. Also, Erik Erlendsson adds that Killorn’s contract does carry a no-movement clause, but it does not kick in until after the 2016-17 season, allowing the Lightning to keep Killorn exposed to the Expansion Draft next summer if they so choose. However, Killorn has proved to be a valued member of the Lightning, and management seems content to keep his toughness and hockey sense in Tampa Bay for another seven years.

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