Alex Steen Hoping To Extend Stay With Blues
Alex Steen is still a year away from unrestricted free agency, but according to Jeremy Rutherford of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the veteran Swede would like to get a contract extension done with St. Louis prior to the start of the 2016-17 campaign. Rutherford also suggests that the Blues would like a resolution sooner rather than later after watching Troy Brouwer and former team captain David Backes depart as free agents this summer.
Steen is in the final year of a three-year, $17.4MM extension ($5.8MM AAV) the two sides signed in December of 2013. As Rutherford noted, the timing of his previous extension indicates Steen might still be willing to talk about a new deal during the regular season, despite his preference for getting it done prior to its start. But that doesn’t necessarily mean common ground for a new contract will be easy for the parties to find.
Depending on how Steen fares in 2016-17 and whether he is amenable to giving St. Louis a hometown discount, a new contract would still likely cost the Blues $5MM per or more over multiple years. Steen turns 33 next March and is coming off a shoulder injury which caused him to miss 15 games last season and required offseason surgery to fix. Additionally, Steen has never been a stalwart of good health. Only once in his 11-year NHL career has Steen suited up for a full schedule of games and he’s missed at least eight contests in each of his previous seven campaigns.
The Blues were outbid in their attempt to re-sign Backes largely because they were hesitant to guarantee their captain the term or money he was looking for. Ultimately, Backes inked a five-year deal with Boston for $30MM ($6MM AAV) and that’s simply a neighborhood the Blues were not willing to travel into. I find it difficult to believe the Blues would make an exception for Steen when they wouldn’t for their long-time captain.
Still, Steen has been an important two-way contributor for the Blues and one they wouldn’t want to lose. Over the last three seasons, Steen has a points-per-game average of 0.85, which in a full season would prorate out to about 70 points. Only 17 players reached that scoring threshold last season and Steen resides in that company, at least on a rate basis.
Steen is a good driver of puck possession, with his team averaging better than 53% of the shot attempts taken while he is on the ice since joining St. Louis. Steen also positively impacts his team’s odds of scoring goals. With Steen on the ice, the Blues have recorded 55.4% of the goals scored over the last two seasons. Steen adds a lot of value to the Blues roster and it makes sense they’d want to keep him given their position as a legitimate Stanley Cup contender. Now it’s a matter of whether they can find a term and AAV both sides are comfortable with.
Nonetheless, there is plenty of time for the two sides to get something done. The Blues likely will wait to make sure Steen is completely healthy and producing at normal levels before committing to another multiyear deal. And since Steen clearly wants to stay in St. Louis, he might be willing to make enough concessions to accommodate the Blues front office to ensure he has a chance to finish his career in the Gateway city.
Unsigned RFAs And UFAs At The 2016 World Cup Of Hockey
The World Cup of Hockey poses a unique opportunity for unsigned RFAs and UFAs to showcase their talent before training camp. Players will be on the world stage facing off against top-level talent, and good performances would go a long way to improving a player’s stock. Below are the RFAs and UFAs set to play in the World Cup of Hockey:
Tobias Rieder (RFA)
Tobias Rieder headlines Team Europe’s forward group this summer and expects to play a large role in the team’s offense. Rieder and the Coyotes remain far apart on a new contract, with the forward’s camp insinuating to the KHL as a viable alternative. Rieder managed to score 14G and 23A in 82 games for the Coyotes in just his second season with the club. The German forward could benefit from a strong performance this summer, and skating with notable playmakers such as Kopitar, Hossa, and Gaborik can only help.
Johnny Gaudreau (RFA)
Johhny Gaudreau will join Team North America this summer. The centerman led the Flames in scoring last season with 30G and 48A in 79 games. While he currently remains unsigned, the Flames and Gaudreau are confident a deal will come to fruition. Johnny Hockey has an opportunity to prove that he is worth a long term contract this summer by holding his own amongst other Team North America stars Nathan MacKinnon and Connor MacDavid.
Sean Monahan (RFA)
Monahan will join his teammate Gaudreau on Team North America this summer, and it is fitting because Monahan finished second in team scoring behind Gaudreau with 27G and 36A in 81 games. Should both Monahan and Gaudreau shine in the tourney, it is likely that they get tandem long-term deals to solidify the Flames’ core.
[Update: Monahan sighed a 7-year, $44.625MM (6.375MM AAV) contract with the Flames]
Jacob Trouba (RFA)
Jacob Trouba will be anchoring Team North America’s defense this summer while looking for a new deal with the Winnipeg Jets. The steady young defenseman scored 6G and 15A in 81 games for Winnipeg, but more importantly played first line minutes averaging the second most even strength playing time. Trouba represents the Jets’ future on defense, but the team already has over $22M tied up in four defensemen. Winnipeg may push for a shorter bridge deal to lessen the cap hit.
Christian Ehrhoff (UFA)
Christian Ehrhoff is slated to play defense for Team Europe this summer, and strong play could create buzz for the 34 year old unrestricted free agent. The German defenseman split last season with the Los Angeles Kings and the Chicago Blackhawks, putting up 2G and 10A in 48 games. Ehrhoff has fallen precipitously since signing a 10-year deal with the Sabres in 2011-12, and was relegated to the press box during Chicago’s first round playoff loss last year. Ehrhoff hopes to impress NHL scouts enough to garner another contract, but he’ll have to significantly raise his game.
Dennis Seidenberg (UFA)
Dennis Seidenberg, another UFA German defenseman, will join Ehrhoff on Team Europe’s blueline. And like Ehrhoff, Seidenberg is hoping that a strong performance parlays into an NHL contract. The 35 year old defenseman scored 1G and 11A in 61 games for the Bruins last season. The free agent market is flooded with veteran defensemen of Seiderberg’s ilk, so he’ll value any chance to separate himself from the numerous other available players.
Nikita Kucherov (RFA)
Much has been written about Nikita Kucherov this summer. The Lightning’s leading scorer—30G and 36 P in 77 games—remains an unsigned RFA while the team looks for ways to make room under the cap. Tampa currently has $6.5M in cap space to sign Kucherov and Nikita Nesterov, but it also has to prepare for next year when Drouin, Palat, Johnson, and Bishop all require new contracts. If Kucherov lights it up this summer, the Lightning will have no choice but bite the bullet and find a way to alleviate the cap crunch.
Dmitry Orlov (RFA)
Dmitry Orlov highlights a thin Team Russia blueline this summer while still in contract talks with the Washington Capitals. Talks are amicable, reports CSN Mid-Atlantic, and that both sides chose to forgo arbitration bodes well for a deal. Orlov scored 8G and 21A in 82 games for the Capitals last season, but remains a bottom-pairing defenseman. A good performance this summer could boost both his salary numbers and his playing time.
Rasmus Ristolainen (RFA)
Rasmus Ristolainen will be manning Team Finland’s defense this summer, and the young defenseman looks to build on a productive season. The Finn led all Buffalo Sabres defenseman in scoring with 9G and 32A in 82 games, and led all players in ice time averaging over 25 minutes a game. A strong performance this summer will go a long way in showing that this season was not a fluke. Ristolainen is poised to become a top-pairing defenseman in the NHL someday, and he is hoping to parlay that potential into a favorable contract.
West Notes: Klefbom, Henderson, Benn
In a translated interview with Ola Winther of Hockey Sverige (Sweden), Oilers’ defenseman Oscar Klefbom was quoted talking about Taylor Hall and the impact he made last season: “He (Hall) never played his best games against the tougher teams, which we really needed it. However, he was fantastic when we met the little inferior teams.”
While this quote obviously might have been slightly lost in translation, the overall sentiment of it has been shared many times over recently by fans and media alike surrounding Hall’s exit from Edmonton. As seems to be the building tradition when a star player is traded or leaves in free agency, Hall’s weaknesses have drawn more focus than his strengths, despite his obvious offensive talent. New Jersey won’t be focusing on the weaknesses however, as they’ve created a solid young group of forwards that will be capable of putting up vast amounts of points next season.
For a team who ranked dead last in goals for last season, the Devils will take some defensive lapses to get Hall’s elite scoring ability. For the record, Hall scored 23 points in 28 games (0.82 PPG) against teams who finished in the top-10 of the league last season. He had 42 in the remaining 54 (0.78 PPG).
- In saddening news related to last season’s Dennis Wideman incident, there is now some doubt that NHL linesman Don Henderson will be able to continue his career on the ice. According to Kevin Paul Dupont of the Boston Globe, friends close to the situation have told him that Henderson underwent surgery to repair two ruptured disks in his neck, and is unsure whether he’ll officiate another NHL game. The friend is quoted as saying “He attacked him from behind, the puck was nowhere near the two of them, and now Henderson’s career may be finished. I don’t see much difference between what he did and Wayne Maki cracking his stick over Teddy Green’s head.’’ Wideman is still involved in a dispute over the suspension that was shortened by an arbitrator last season.
- Many teams hoped that Jamie Benn was headed for free agency after next season, but after the Dallas Stars’ captain re-signed for another eight years, he’s sure to be in green for a while. Benn told Mike Heika of The Dallas News that he “didn’t have even one thought of leaving this place. I fell in love with Dallas, Texas ever since I got down here.” Benn ranked second in scoring last season, and has three straight 30-goal seasons. He’s under contract now through 2024-25, and should go down as one of the best Stars of all-time, should he continue his current path.
Calculating Kucherov’s Potential Value As RFA
Tampa Bay’s Nikita Kucherov is perhaps the best player still without a contract for 2016-17. Of course as a RFA without arbitration rights and given there is practically no chance another team would dare an offer sheet, Kucherov has almost no leverage to use in negotiations for a new deal. Regardless, Kucherov is going to get a significant raise over the modest $700K he earned in salary this year. That might not bode too well for Tampa, who has around $6.5MM in cap space with Kucherov and D Nikita Nestorov still to re-sign. Still, despite the relative lack of apparent progress, Lightning GM Steve Yzerman is quite confident a deal with Kucherov will get done, as Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times writes.
Naturally, knowing a deal will get done and knowing what that done deal will look like are two very different things. Smith speculates that the six-year, $36MM ($6MM AAV) contract Filip Forsberg signed with Nashville serves as a good comparable.
Like Kucherov, Forsberg was coming off his ELC when he agreed to his new pact. In terms of offensive production, there are strong similarities between the two. Forsberg has averaged 0.33 Goals/Game and 0.73 Pts/Game during his 182-game NHL career. Kucherov counters with nearly identical scoring rates of 0.32 Goals/Game and 0.71 Pts/Game over 211 games. Forsberg’s deal certainly would seem to represent a fair comparable.
Yzerman is as patient as they come in his role as GM and he will only make a deal if he feels it fits into the club’s salary structure. Not long ago it seemed all but certain that Steven Stamkos would sign a contract worth close to $10MM annually, whether with Tampa or another club, as that is the going rate for elite players. Yet Yzerman sold Stamkos on his long-term vision for the program and convinced the star sniper to take a more palatable figure for the team.
After getting Stamkos’ name on the dotted line, Yzerman moved to sign franchise defenseman Victor Hedman a year before he would have hit free agency. Ultimately, Hedman and the Lightning agreed to an eight-year, $63MM deal many in the industry feel is a steal for a player of his caliber.
Yzerman might not be the perfect GM (the Ryan Callahan contract already looks like it’s going to be an anchor) but he has done a tremendous job getting most of his own guys to re-sign for fair-market value or less, allowing enough space to get his RFA’s done.
That being said, Kucherov’s representation might look elsewhere for comparable contracts to base their argument on. One such deal is the eight-year, $60MM pact Vladimir Tarasenko obtained from the St. Louis Blues earlier this year. If we again take into account relative offensive production over the last three seasons, Kucherov matches up fairly well with Tarasenko. The Blues winger is slightly more productive offensively, both in the goal scoring (0.37 goals-per-game) and points departments (0.75 points-per-game). But the difference is small enough that Kucherov’s camp could reasonably push for a contract somewhat closer to Tarasenko’s in AAV.
On the other side of the coin, Mike Hoffman, who recently inked a four-year extension with Ottawa worth $20.75MM ($5.1875MM AAV) could also be used as a marker for Kucherov’s value. Hoffman comes up just shy in terms of points-per-game (0.68) but is essentially equal as a goal-scorer based on rates. Hoffman has averaged 0.36 goals-per-game over the last two seasons while Kucherov has recorded 0.37 per, over the same time frame.
At the end of the day, the Forsberg contract is likely going to be close to what the two sides end up agreeing upon. Kucherov has outproduced Hoffman enough to justify an AAV higher than $5.1875MM. And while Kucherov isn’t too far off from Tarasenko offensively, the Blues winger is the more electric goal scorer and goals pay better than assists. Those factors combined with Yzerman’s ability to make deals on his terms point to the likelihood of something in the range of $6MM annually.
Free Agent Frustration: Kris Russell Is This Year’s Cody Franson
Nearly one full month into free agency, defenseman Kris Russell remains on the market and looking for his next employment opportunity. Russell is the highest ranking UFA still unsigned from Pro Hockey Rumors top-50 list and despite some earlier reported interest, there doesn’t appear to be much movement currently in his market. In many ways, the slow-moving nature of Russell’s free agency is reminiscent of the case of Cody Franson, who just last summer was forced to wait until September before signing a free agent contract.
Both players entered their respective free agency periods among the top options available at their position and with the expectation of signing lucrative, long-term deals. Like Russell, the market for Franson never seemed to materialize last summer and he ended up getting a two-year deal from Buffalo with an AAV of $3.325MM. It’s becoming more and more likely that Russell will end up having to do the same; ink a short-term contract for far less money than most pundits imagined at the outset of free agency. PHR predicted a four-year deal for the veteran defender with an AAV of $4.5MM. At this point it doesn’t appear Russell will be able to secure a pact anywhere near that total value.
Even though Franson and Russell are both defenseman and have experienced similar frustrations in free agency, albeit a year apart, the two players are more unlike than alike in terms of style and production. Franson was a darling of the advanced stats crowd due primarily to his strong offensive contributions at five-on-five. During the three-season stretch from 2012-13 to 2014-15, Franson tallied 0.94 Pts/60 in five-on-five situations, a figure better than that of Keith Yandle (0.91) over the same period. Of course we know Yandle is widely considered to be one of the top offensive blue liners in the game and was recently rewarded with a rich contract from Florida as a result.
Russell, on the other hand, is more of an old school favorite. He blocks a ton of shots, leading the league by averaging 3.4 blocked-shots-per-game this past season. Russell is fairly mobile and produces enough offense to draw the description of puck-mover. However he struggles in the possession department, ranking 114th out of 124 defensemen who played at least 1,000 minutes at five-on-five with a Corsi For % (CF%) of 45.3%. Because of that, Russell doesn’t rate too well among the analytically-inclined.
It’s possible that Russell’s market has been adversely affected due to more teams utilizing advanced statistics in their decision-making process. Then again it was only five months ago that Dallas agreed to ship two prospects and a conditional second-round draft choice to acquire his services. Chances are there are plenty of teams that still value what Russell does well and that he’ll sign a contract soon enough. Like Franson a year ago, Russell has had to wait longer than expected and likely won’t get either the term or the money originally predicted, but he’s too good not to land on his feet somewhere before the start of the season.
Capology 101: College Free Agents
With the rumors surrounding Jimmy Vesey and Thomas Di Pauli this offseason taking hold, PHR takes a quick look at how the CBA treats players who choose the NCAA development route.
Generally, a team who drafts a present or future college player retains their exclusive negotiating rights for four years, but that differs with the age of a player when they are signed.
18 and 19 year olds
Teams own a player’s rights up to and including the August 15th following his graduation* if the player is or becomes a college student prior to June 1st following his selection.** The player must remain a student through to his college class’s graduation, and the player was 18 or 19 when drafted.
If a player quits school before his last semester, his drafting team owns his rights until the later of:
- the 4th June 1st following his draft, or
- 30 days after NHL Central Registry receives notice that the player is not a student.
If a player quits school after his last semester starts, and is in his 4th year of college and either 4th year of NCAA eligibility or scheduled to graduate, then his drafting team owns his rights until the August 15th following his college termination.
20+
If a player drafted at age 20 is or becomes a college student, then the drafting team retains his rights until the later of:
- the 2nd June 1st following his draft, or
- 30 days after NHL Central Registry receives notice that the player is not a student.
Some pundits call the entire system a NCAA loophole, but the reality is much more nuanced. Teams still get four years of exclusive negotiating rights while a player seeking to enter unrestricted free agency must still sign an entry level contract wherever they sign. What that means is that a player finishing college could join the team that drafted him and burn off a year of his ELC. Going to free agency, however, removes that option, and leaves a year of free agency money on the table. It is a give and take that protects both parties.
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*Graduation is defined as the class with which the player is scheduled to graduate during his final semester. It is not his matriculating class.
**The same rules apply if a player receives a Bona Fide Offer and enters college prior to the 2nd June 1st following the draft.
Professional Tryouts
As the summer wears on, many remaining unrestricted free agents begin worrying about future employment. Teams have usually filled their needs by now and are done handing out large contracts. The last hope for unsigned players becomes the professional tryout. A player is essentially invited to a team’s camp to earn a professional contract. Last year 91 players tried out for a team—and some tried out for two teams—but only 14 tryouts garnered contracts.
The criteria for teams varies. Some teams are just looking for warm bodies to play at an NHL level, while others are searching for players in a more defined role that cannot be filled by a team’s prospect pool. Most players did not impact their team, but some turned out to be pleasant surprises. Below is a list of players who signed a contract stemming from a professional try-out:
- Steve Bernier – NYI – $750K
- Eric Boulton – NYI – $575K
- Brad Boyes – TOR – $700K
- Tomas Fleischmann – MTL – $750K
- Scott Gomez – STL – $575K
- Jonas Gustavsson – BOS – $600K
- Martin Havlat – STL – $600K
- Tyler Kennedy – NJ – $600K
- Corey Potter – ARI – $575K
- Thomas Raffl – WPG – $575K
- Michal Rozsival – CHI – $600K
- Lee Stempniak – NJ – $850K
- Scottie Upshall – STL – $700K
- Dainius Zubrus – SJ – $600K
Lee Stempniak and the New Jersey Devils are the obvious beneficiary of last year’s professional tryouts. Stempniak scored 16G and 25A in 63 games for the Devils last year before being traded to the Bruins at the deadline. Four other players, however, used their salvaged year to obtain new contracts for the upcoming season as well. Gustavsson, Boulton, Rozsival, and Upshall all signed new contracts this year, one year removed from the possibility of not playing at all.
This year Maxim Lapierre is the first player to sign up for a professional tryout. The rugged forward will be on display for the New York Rangers this training camp after spending the previous season with MODO of the Swedish Elite League and HC Lugano of the Swiss National League A. Over the course of the offseason more players will do the same. Some will be looking to revitalize their career while others are looking for one last chance to prove that they have what it takes.
Predators Sign Matt Carle For $700K
The Nashville Predators have dipped into the free agent market Wednesday, signing UFA Matt Carle to a one-year, $700K contract. Recently bought out by the Tampa Bay Lightning, we profiled Carle’s free agency and projected a contract between $750K-$1MM. Obviously, this comes in below that and with it the Predators get a veteran blueliner with over 700 games experience.
After signing a huge six-year, $33MM contract with Tampa Bay before the 2012-13 season, Carle was never able to replicate the strong two-way play he provided for Philadelphia. Last season, he only contributed 9 points (2-7) in 64 games, though he did chip in five assists in the playoffs.
The Predators came to an agreement with Petter Granberg the other day, avoiding arbitration and seemingly putting him in contention for a bottom-pairing spot; this Carle deal may throw a wrench in those plans, unless Nashville decides to start him in the AHL to try and rediscover his game.
Only 31, Carle has two 40+ point seasons under his belt and was once considered an excellent puck-moving defenseman. With P.K. Subban, Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis and Mattias Ekholm already locked into the top-four in Nashville, all Carle would have to do is provide solid bottom-pairing minutes against team’s third or fourth lines. For a player who once logged over 23 minutes a night on a consistent basis, this is a low-risk, fairly high-reward move for the Predators.
Di Pauli To Test Free Agency
While everyone has been hyper focused on the impending free agency of Jimmy Vesey, it seems as though another impact college player is set to become a free agent as well on August 15th. Craig Custance reports today that 2012 Washington Capitals fourth rounder Thomas Di Pauli will not sign with the team before the deadline and will become an unrestricted free agent, capable of signing an entry-level contract with any team in the league.
Di Pauli, a small but sure-handed forward from the University of Notre Dame will try his luck at finding the best fit for his set of skills, and as Craig Custance reports, that could end up being the Capitals. Talks have been on-going, but they will likely not reach a timely conclusion. It is possible that the Capitals fast-paced, skilled style is not a fit for Di Pauli though, who is known more for his two-way ability and hard-working, high-energy approach. He did start to find his offensive game in his senior year though, scoring 32 points in 37 games playing alongside highly-touted Bruins prospect Anders Bjork. Di Pauli is also a talented face-off man, though he can play both center and wing.
Di Pauli’s case will definitely not get the attention of Vesey’s, who is expected to jump in and be an impact player right away at the NHL level. However, Di Pauli does have the potential to draw similar attention to defenseman Mike Reilly, who last summer spurned the Columbus Blue Jackets for free agency, drew plenty of attention before signing with the Minnesota Wild, but then only played in 29 games and scored only seven points. Reilly was recruited not for his immediate ability, but for his potential. He is expected to have a greater role for the Wild in 2016-17. Similarly, Di Pauli may not be ready to adjust from the NCAA to the NHL right away, but his solid two-way game, hockey sense, and hard-working attitude will be attractive to many teams lacking energy line depth or face-off ability down the middle. If his offensive game continues to develop at the AHL level, he could see the NHL this season and could turn into a reliable bottom-nine player.
Mike Santorelli Reportedly Signing in Switzerland
Unrestricted free agent Mike Santorelli has reportedly signed with Geneve-Servette of the Swiss League today, according to Swiss radio host Patrick Andrey. Santorelli last played for the Anaheim Ducks, scoring 9G and 9A in 70 games last year before becoming a healthy scratch in the Ducks first round playoff loss.
The journeyman forward played for Nashville, Florida, Winnipeg, Vancouver, Toronto, Nashville (again), and Anaheim. He peaked in his first full NHL season, amassing 20G and 21A for the Florida Panthers. Santorelli had a minor resurgence in his one-year deals with Vancouver and Toronto, but could never parlay that into consistent success. Most former NHLers who sign overseas negotiate out-clauses in their contracts that allow them to return to the NHL if they receive a deal. It is unclear right now if Santorelli has one, but given that he is only 30, a return to the NHL is still a possibility.
This is Santorelli’s second stint overseas. He played with Tingsryds AIF in Sweden’s second highest league during the 2012-13 lockout. Santorelli is the second player signing in Switzerland today as earlier Kris Versteeg signed with SC Bern. Geneve-Servette is no stranger to former NHLers—Taylor Pyatt, Alexander Picard, Matt D’Agostini, and Yannick Weber have all played for the Swiss club.