Revisiting The Shattenkirk, Nash Trade Rumor
It seems the Rick Nash for Kevin Shattenkirk trade rumors have been around since the New York Rangers were eliminated by Pittsburgh in the first round of the playoffs in April. Whether the rumor ever had any basis in fact or was completely conjured up by beat writers and bloggers is up for debate. Regardless, this is one rumor that has had quite the shelf life and is one that refuses to go away. They say, “where there’s smoke, there’s fire,” and there has been a lot of smoke on this one.
Jeremy Rutherford of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch recently answered questions as part of a live chat and naturally one reader asked about this. Rutherford did say, “it still seems quiet right now,” when discussing what his sources had told him about any Shattenkirk rumors. But later he also said he “wouldn’t dismiss the possibility,” of a trade involving the two players.
It makes sense for both clubs to varying degrees to make a move of this nature. The Rangers had issues much of last season involving their defense and have since lost regular defensemen Keith Yandle and Dan Boyle to trade and retirement respectively. Shattenkirk grew up a Rangers fan and idolized former Blueshirt blue liner Brian Leetch. His offensive prowess and puck moving ability would certainly go a long way toward replacing what the team lost when they dealt Yandle’s negotiating rights to Florida. And despite Shattenkirk entering the final year of his deal, his fondness for the Rangers would make him a likely candidate to sign a somewhat team-friendly extension.
On the St. Louis side, adding Nash would help offset the void of veteran leadership and skill created when David Backes and Troy Brouwer left the team in free agency. Nash’s previous experience with head coach Ken Hitchcock in Columbus also lends credibility to the belief the Blues would have interest in the veteran winger.
Not all signs point to the likelihood of heavy interest in Nash, however. St. Louis has made it known that they are focused on getting younger. They are expected to bring back Vladimir Sobotka from overseas to fill one vacancy up front. Plus they have some young prospects they might like to give a shot too before adding an expensive veteran like Nash.
Nash also makes a fair amount more money than Shattenkirk – $7.8MM cap hit but actual salaries of $8MM and 8.2MM over the next two years – but since the Rangers have plenty of cap space they would be able to retain salary to facilitate a move if they chose to do so.
I believe this trade would have already gone down if the Rangers and Blues wanted it to. It’s true the Rangers didn’t execute the deal to acquire Mika Zibanejad in exchange for Derick Brassard until well into the summer but that was due to Ottawa wishing to avoid paying out a bonus owed to Brassard on July 15th. The best guess is that the two clubs will go into the season more or less as they are today. But that doesn’t mean they can’t revisit this concept in-season if both teams are in need of a jolt ahead of the trade deadline.
Snapshots: Oilers, World Cup, Hudler
Mark Spector of Sportsnet wrote today about the Oilers’ player evaluation failures, identifying it as the main cause of their ten-year playoff drought. Spector notes the decisions to let go of former Vice President of player personnel Scott Howson and analytics guru Tyler Dellow, and naming Keith Gretzky assistant general manager. Spector argues that Keith Gretzky has had a successful run as part of the amateur scouting staff for the Phoenix Coyotes and Boston Bruins. Bruins’ beat writer Joe Haggerty tweeted today pointing out that while his tenure with the Bruins was relatively short, Gretzky’s first pick was scoring forward David Pastrnak.
The article also defends General Manager Peter Chiarelli from the suggestion that Dellow’s release is a rejection of analytics. Saying that it was a “deliveryman issue,” Spector says that there will still be Oilers’ staff working in analytics. Those who remember Dellow’s writing before joining the Oilers will likely remember the trades of Jeff Petry, Martin Marincin, and Taylor Hall, and wonder how much input he’s had.
Here are more links from around hockey:
- Insuring players for international tournaments is a critical issue for league participation. Gary Lawless tweets today that should unsigned players like Johnny Gaudreau, Jacob Trouba, or Sean Monahan still be without a contract, they will be insured at the league and players association’s expense. Several players sat out the 2004 World Cup because the coming lockout delayed contracts, and complicated the insurance issue.
- TSN analytics writer Travis Yost makes the case today for a team to sign free agent forward Jiri Hudler. Hudler, 32, had 16 goals, and 46 points in 72 games with the Flames and Panthers last season, but had just one assist in six playoff games for the Panthers. Yost’s case, somewhat unconventional for an analytics writer, is based heavily on Hudler’s ability to improve his team’s shooting percentage.
Metro Notes: Rangers, Zibanejad, Buchnevich, Gagner, Cizikas
Today is New York Rangers Day on the Pro Hockey Talk section of NBC Sports and they’ve got several posts up focusing on the Blueshirts. Included among them, Jason Brough lists the newly acquired Mika Zibanejad as the New York Ranger “under pressure” for the 2016-17 season.
Zibanejad was acquired from Ottawa in exchange for Derick Brassard, the Rangers leading goal scorer and second leading point producer. The expectation is Zibanejad, while perhaps not completely replacing Brassard’s offensive production, will be a more well-rounded player. Zibanejad played in all situations for the Senators, averaging 1:25 per game killing penalties and another 2:30 on the power play this past season. The Blueshirts struggled on the penalty-kill and it’s hoped Zibanejad will give the team another quality forward option when down a man.
Zibanejad was certainly the biggest name the Rangers have imported this summer after the disappointing end to their season. With hopes of returning to Stanley Cup contender status, the club will need Zibanejad to produce and play well in his first year on Manhattan.
More on the Rangers and other clubs in the NHL’s Metro Division….
- In the same piece, Brough discusses Rangers top prospect Pavel Buchnevich and where he might fit into the lineup, assuming of course he makes the team out of camp. Despite being listed as a LW on the team’s official roster, Brough suggests the Rangers could line up the left-handed shooting Buchnevich on the RW, opposite Chris Kreider and next to Derek Stepan. Head coach Alain Vigneault is not afraid to mix and match his lines or to give the line(s) playing well more ice time. Even if on paper Buchnevich is on the 3rd line, it’s still quite possible he’ll see plenty of ice time. As long as he’s getting top-9 minutes he should be fine. What’s more important is developing chemistry with at least one other forward (Vigneault sticks to pairs when assembling his forward units) and that his minutes are sheltered to keep him away from the opponent’s best players as often as possible.
- Staying in New York, Casey Cizikas spoke with the Islanders team website and answered questions regarding his new five-year extension, among other topics. The Islanders took a fair amount of criticism for doling out $3.35MM annually to a player who is considered primarily a 4th liner and penalty-killer. But that’s perhaps understating his actual value to the club. One, he averaged 12:41 of ice time this past season, whereas most 4th line players see about 8 – 10 minutes per game. Second, head coach Jack Capuano trusts Cizikas on the ice late in games when the outcome is undecided. Maybe we look back in a few years and see this contract as an overpay, but today, for what he brings to the club, the signing is at least defensible.
- The Columbus Blue Jackets recently inked veteran pivot Sam Gagner to a one-year deal worth $650K. In this post by Aaron Portzline of The Columbus Dispatch, Gagner says the reason he signed with the Blue Jackets is that they offered him the opportunity to “re-establish” himself as a quality NHL player. In fact, he passed on offers from at least four other clubs to take the deal with the Jackets. Gagner, who had netted at least 40 points six different times and never previously finished with fewer than 37 points in any season, slumped to a career-worst 16 points last year, skating primarily on the 4th line for the Flyers. With head coach John Tortorella seemingly preferring to use Boone Jenner on the wing and with only the oft-injured Brandon Dubinsky a sure bet to see top-six center minutes – assuming he stays relatively healthy of course – this does present Gagner an excellent chance to rebuild his value. The Jackets boast some quality talent up front – Brandon Saad, Jenner, Scott Hartnell and Cam Atkinson come to mind immediately – so Gagner will get to play with some skilled players. By the end of the 2016-17 campaign, Gagner might prove to be the biggest bargain of free agency.
Coyotes, Tobias Rieder Still At Impasse On New Deal
Arizona GM John Chayka has already accomplished much this offseason but a GM’s work is never done. The Coyotes still have RFA Tobias Rieder to re-sign and it appears a deal is not close to being completed.
According to Rieder’s representation, agent Darren Ferris, “There’s been no discussions at this point that have made any meaningful change in anyone’s position.”
Rieder is coming off a 14-goal, 37-point performance this past season and is looking to cash in. Last month, Ferris appeared to have established their expectations for a new contract by naming Nazem Kadri as a reasonable comparable. Kadri netted a six-year deal with Toronto with an AAV of $4.5MM a year ago on the heels of an 18-goal, 39-point campaign. Rieder, 23, tallied 37 points a year ago and on the surface that performance would appear to represent a fair talking point on a new contract. However, Kadri had a much longer and more distinguished track record than the two-year veteran Coyotes forward.
First, Kadri was a high first round draft choice, going 7th overall in 2009. Rieder was a 4th round selection two years later. Teams are willing to bet on upside in contract negotiations and 1st round picks generally come with more untapped potential than 4th rounders.
Second, when Kadri agreed to his extension, he already had posted at least 40 points in four separate NHL campaigns, with a career best 50 coming in 2013-14. He also had six years of NHL experience, putting him just two years away from unrestricted free agency per the terms of the current CBA. Rieder, on the other hand, just completed his second NHL campaign, leaving him well away from unrestricted free agency. Kadri had accomplished far more at the NHL level over a far longer period of time than has Rieder to this point and was closer to reaching free agency.
Ferris also pointed out Jamie McGinn‘s recent three-year contract with Arizona as a base line for negotiations. McGinn carries an AAV of $3.33MM.
Again, McGinn has been in the league a lot longer than Rieder (veteran of 450 NHL games) and has two, 20-goal campaigns on his resume. He also signed his deal as an UFA with far more leverage thanks to a broad market than Rieder has as an RFA.
As Morgan wrote, perhaps the most logical comparable given Rieder’s age, experience and production level is Vladislav Namestnikov of Tampa Bay. Through 127 career NHL games, Namestnikov has tallied 23 goals and 51 points, numbers reasonably close to Rieder’s. Namestnikov was selected with the 27th selection in the 1st round of the 2011 entry draft and is the same age as Rieder. Tampa secured Namestnikov’s services on a two-year deal worth slightly less than $2MM annually.
Rieder’s camp is marketing the winger using advanced stats and as we know, Chayka is well-versed in analytics. Evidently, Ferris has yet to make a compelling enough case to sway the Arizona GM to their way of thinking on Rieder’s value. Chayka is obviously sticking to his guns as whatever deal he and Rieder agree on sets a standard for future negotiations. Every new contract adds to the pool of possible comparable deals other agents will point to when advocating for their clients and it’s the job of club management to try to keep those salaries as low as possible.
Ferris has suggested the German-born Rieder would entertain offers to play overseas and while that possibility can’t be discounted, particularly if his European contract contained an out-clause, the NHL is the premier league in the world and most players want to play there. It might go down to the wire but I fully expect the Coyotes and Rieder to get a deal done, likely very similar to Namestnikov’s, but perhaps eclipsing $2MM in AAV.
Alex Steen Hoping To Extend Stay With Blues
Alex Steen is still a year away from unrestricted free agency, but according to Jeremy Rutherford of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the veteran Swede would like to get a contract extension done with St. Louis prior to the start of the 2016-17 campaign. Rutherford also suggests that the Blues would like a resolution sooner rather than later after watching Troy Brouwer and former team captain David Backes depart as free agents this summer.
Steen is in the final year of a three-year, $17.4MM extension ($5.8MM AAV) the two sides signed in December of 2013. As Rutherford noted, the timing of his previous extension indicates Steen might still be willing to talk about a new deal during the regular season, despite his preference for getting it done prior to its start. But that doesn’t necessarily mean common ground for a new contract will be easy for the parties to find.
Depending on how Steen fares in 2016-17 and whether he is amenable to giving St. Louis a hometown discount, a new contract would still likely cost the Blues $5MM per or more over multiple years. Steen turns 33 next March and is coming off a shoulder injury which caused him to miss 15 games last season and required offseason surgery to fix. Additionally, Steen has never been a stalwart of good health. Only once in his 11-year NHL career has Steen suited up for a full schedule of games and he’s missed at least eight contests in each of his previous seven campaigns.
The Blues were outbid in their attempt to re-sign Backes largely because they were hesitant to guarantee their captain the term or money he was looking for. Ultimately, Backes inked a five-year deal with Boston for $30MM ($6MM AAV) and that’s simply a neighborhood the Blues were not willing to travel into. I find it difficult to believe the Blues would make an exception for Steen when they wouldn’t for their long-time captain.
Still, Steen has been an important two-way contributor for the Blues and one they wouldn’t want to lose. Over the last three seasons, Steen has a points-per-game average of 0.85, which in a full season would prorate out to about 70 points. Only 17 players reached that scoring threshold last season and Steen resides in that company, at least on a rate basis.
Steen is a good driver of puck possession, with his team averaging better than 53% of the shot attempts taken while he is on the ice since joining St. Louis. Steen also positively impacts his team’s odds of scoring goals. With Steen on the ice, the Blues have recorded 55.4% of the goals scored over the last two seasons. Steen adds a lot of value to the Blues roster and it makes sense they’d want to keep him given their position as a legitimate Stanley Cup contender. Now it’s a matter of whether they can find a term and AAV both sides are comfortable with.
Nonetheless, there is plenty of time for the two sides to get something done. The Blues likely will wait to make sure Steen is completely healthy and producing at normal levels before committing to another multiyear deal. And since Steen clearly wants to stay in St. Louis, he might be willing to make enough concessions to accommodate the Blues front office to ensure he has a chance to finish his career in the Gateway city.
Unsigned RFAs And UFAs At The 2016 World Cup Of Hockey
The World Cup of Hockey poses a unique opportunity for unsigned RFAs and UFAs to showcase their talent before training camp. Players will be on the world stage facing off against top-level talent, and good performances would go a long way to improving a player’s stock. Below are the RFAs and UFAs set to play in the World Cup of Hockey:
Tobias Rieder (RFA)
Tobias Rieder headlines Team Europe’s forward group this summer and expects to play a large role in the team’s offense. Rieder and the Coyotes remain far apart on a new contract, with the forward’s camp insinuating to the KHL as a viable alternative. Rieder managed to score 14G and 23A in 82 games for the Coyotes in just his second season with the club. The German forward could benefit from a strong performance this summer, and skating with notable playmakers such as Kopitar, Hossa, and Gaborik can only help.
Johnny Gaudreau (RFA)
Johhny Gaudreau will join Team North America this summer. The centerman led the Flames in scoring last season with 30G and 48A in 79 games. While he currently remains unsigned, the Flames and Gaudreau are confident a deal will come to fruition. Johnny Hockey has an opportunity to prove that he is worth a long term contract this summer by holding his own amongst other Team North America stars Nathan MacKinnon and Connor MacDavid.
Sean Monahan (RFA)
Monahan will join his teammate Gaudreau on Team North America this summer, and it is fitting because Monahan finished second in team scoring behind Gaudreau with 27G and 36A in 81 games. Should both Monahan and Gaudreau shine in the tourney, it is likely that they get tandem long-term deals to solidify the Flames’ core.
[Update: Monahan sighed a 7-year, $44.625MM (6.375MM AAV) contract with the Flames]
Jacob Trouba (RFA)
Jacob Trouba will be anchoring Team North America’s defense this summer while looking for a new deal with the Winnipeg Jets. The steady young defenseman scored 6G and 15A in 81 games for Winnipeg, but more importantly played first line minutes averaging the second most even strength playing time. Trouba represents the Jets’ future on defense, but the team already has over $22M tied up in four defensemen. Winnipeg may push for a shorter bridge deal to lessen the cap hit.
Christian Ehrhoff (UFA)
Christian Ehrhoff is slated to play defense for Team Europe this summer, and strong play could create buzz for the 34 year old unrestricted free agent. The German defenseman split last season with the Los Angeles Kings and the Chicago Blackhawks, putting up 2G and 10A in 48 games. Ehrhoff has fallen precipitously since signing a 10-year deal with the Sabres in 2011-12, and was relegated to the press box during Chicago’s first round playoff loss last year. Ehrhoff hopes to impress NHL scouts enough to garner another contract, but he’ll have to significantly raise his game.
Dennis Seidenberg (UFA)
Dennis Seidenberg, another UFA German defenseman, will join Ehrhoff on Team Europe’s blueline. And like Ehrhoff, Seidenberg is hoping that a strong performance parlays into an NHL contract. The 35 year old defenseman scored 1G and 11A in 61 games for the Bruins last season. The free agent market is flooded with veteran defensemen of Seiderberg’s ilk, so he’ll value any chance to separate himself from the numerous other available players.
Nikita Kucherov (RFA)
Much has been written about Nikita Kucherov this summer. The Lightning’s leading scorer—30G and 36 P in 77 games—remains an unsigned RFA while the team looks for ways to make room under the cap. Tampa currently has $6.5M in cap space to sign Kucherov and Nikita Nesterov, but it also has to prepare for next year when Drouin, Palat, Johnson, and Bishop all require new contracts. If Kucherov lights it up this summer, the Lightning will have no choice but bite the bullet and find a way to alleviate the cap crunch.
Dmitry Orlov (RFA)
Dmitry Orlov highlights a thin Team Russia blueline this summer while still in contract talks with the Washington Capitals. Talks are amicable, reports CSN Mid-Atlantic, and that both sides chose to forgo arbitration bodes well for a deal. Orlov scored 8G and 21A in 82 games for the Capitals last season, but remains a bottom-pairing defenseman. A good performance this summer could boost both his salary numbers and his playing time.
Rasmus Ristolainen (RFA)
Rasmus Ristolainen will be manning Team Finland’s defense this summer, and the young defenseman looks to build on a productive season. The Finn led all Buffalo Sabres defenseman in scoring with 9G and 32A in 82 games, and led all players in ice time averaging over 25 minutes a game. A strong performance this summer will go a long way in showing that this season was not a fluke. Ristolainen is poised to become a top-pairing defenseman in the NHL someday, and he is hoping to parlay that potential into a favorable contract.
West Notes: Klefbom, Henderson, Benn
In a translated interview with Ola Winther of Hockey Sverige (Sweden), Oilers’ defenseman Oscar Klefbom was quoted talking about Taylor Hall and the impact he made last season: “He (Hall) never played his best games against the tougher teams, which we really needed it. However, he was fantastic when we met the little inferior teams.”
While this quote obviously might have been slightly lost in translation, the overall sentiment of it has been shared many times over recently by fans and media alike surrounding Hall’s exit from Edmonton. As seems to be the building tradition when a star player is traded or leaves in free agency, Hall’s weaknesses have drawn more focus than his strengths, despite his obvious offensive talent. New Jersey won’t be focusing on the weaknesses however, as they’ve created a solid young group of forwards that will be capable of putting up vast amounts of points next season.
For a team who ranked dead last in goals for last season, the Devils will take some defensive lapses to get Hall’s elite scoring ability. For the record, Hall scored 23 points in 28 games (0.82 PPG) against teams who finished in the top-10 of the league last season. He had 42 in the remaining 54 (0.78 PPG).
- In saddening news related to last season’s Dennis Wideman incident, there is now some doubt that NHL linesman Don Henderson will be able to continue his career on the ice. According to Kevin Paul Dupont of the Boston Globe, friends close to the situation have told him that Henderson underwent surgery to repair two ruptured disks in his neck, and is unsure whether he’ll officiate another NHL game. The friend is quoted as saying “He attacked him from behind, the puck was nowhere near the two of them, and now Henderson’s career may be finished. I don’t see much difference between what he did and Wayne Maki cracking his stick over Teddy Green’s head.’’ Wideman is still involved in a dispute over the suspension that was shortened by an arbitrator last season.
- Many teams hoped that Jamie Benn was headed for free agency after next season, but after the Dallas Stars’ captain re-signed for another eight years, he’s sure to be in green for a while. Benn told Mike Heika of The Dallas News that he “didn’t have even one thought of leaving this place. I fell in love with Dallas, Texas ever since I got down here.” Benn ranked second in scoring last season, and has three straight 30-goal seasons. He’s under contract now through 2024-25, and should go down as one of the best Stars of all-time, should he continue his current path.
Calculating Kucherov’s Potential Value As RFA
Tampa Bay’s Nikita Kucherov is perhaps the best player still without a contract for 2016-17. Of course as a RFA without arbitration rights and given there is practically no chance another team would dare an offer sheet, Kucherov has almost no leverage to use in negotiations for a new deal. Regardless, Kucherov is going to get a significant raise over the modest $700K he earned in salary this year. That might not bode too well for Tampa, who has around $6.5MM in cap space with Kucherov and D Nikita Nestorov still to re-sign. Still, despite the relative lack of apparent progress, Lightning GM Steve Yzerman is quite confident a deal with Kucherov will get done, as Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times writes.
Naturally, knowing a deal will get done and knowing what that done deal will look like are two very different things. Smith speculates that the six-year, $36MM ($6MM AAV) contract Filip Forsberg signed with Nashville serves as a good comparable.
Like Kucherov, Forsberg was coming off his ELC when he agreed to his new pact. In terms of offensive production, there are strong similarities between the two. Forsberg has averaged 0.33 Goals/Game and 0.73 Pts/Game during his 182-game NHL career. Kucherov counters with nearly identical scoring rates of 0.32 Goals/Game and 0.71 Pts/Game over 211 games. Forsberg’s deal certainly would seem to represent a fair comparable.
Yzerman is as patient as they come in his role as GM and he will only make a deal if he feels it fits into the club’s salary structure. Not long ago it seemed all but certain that Steven Stamkos would sign a contract worth close to $10MM annually, whether with Tampa or another club, as that is the going rate for elite players. Yet Yzerman sold Stamkos on his long-term vision for the program and convinced the star sniper to take a more palatable figure for the team.
After getting Stamkos’ name on the dotted line, Yzerman moved to sign franchise defenseman Victor Hedman a year before he would have hit free agency. Ultimately, Hedman and the Lightning agreed to an eight-year, $63MM deal many in the industry feel is a steal for a player of his caliber.
Yzerman might not be the perfect GM (the Ryan Callahan contract already looks like it’s going to be an anchor) but he has done a tremendous job getting most of his own guys to re-sign for fair-market value or less, allowing enough space to get his RFA’s done.
That being said, Kucherov’s representation might look elsewhere for comparable contracts to base their argument on. One such deal is the eight-year, $60MM pact Vladimir Tarasenko obtained from the St. Louis Blues earlier this year. If we again take into account relative offensive production over the last three seasons, Kucherov matches up fairly well with Tarasenko. The Blues winger is slightly more productive offensively, both in the goal scoring (0.37 goals-per-game) and points departments (0.75 points-per-game). But the difference is small enough that Kucherov’s camp could reasonably push for a contract somewhat closer to Tarasenko’s in AAV.
On the other side of the coin, Mike Hoffman, who recently inked a four-year extension with Ottawa worth $20.75MM ($5.1875MM AAV) could also be used as a marker for Kucherov’s value. Hoffman comes up just shy in terms of points-per-game (0.68) but is essentially equal as a goal-scorer based on rates. Hoffman has averaged 0.36 goals-per-game over the last two seasons while Kucherov has recorded 0.37 per, over the same time frame.
At the end of the day, the Forsberg contract is likely going to be close to what the two sides end up agreeing upon. Kucherov has outproduced Hoffman enough to justify an AAV higher than $5.1875MM. And while Kucherov isn’t too far off from Tarasenko offensively, the Blues winger is the more electric goal scorer and goals pay better than assists. Those factors combined with Yzerman’s ability to make deals on his terms point to the likelihood of something in the range of $6MM annually.
Free Agent Frustration: Kris Russell Is This Year’s Cody Franson
Nearly one full month into free agency, defenseman Kris Russell remains on the market and looking for his next employment opportunity. Russell is the highest ranking UFA still unsigned from Pro Hockey Rumors top-50 list and despite some earlier reported interest, there doesn’t appear to be much movement currently in his market. In many ways, the slow-moving nature of Russell’s free agency is reminiscent of the case of Cody Franson, who just last summer was forced to wait until September before signing a free agent contract.
Both players entered their respective free agency periods among the top options available at their position and with the expectation of signing lucrative, long-term deals. Like Russell, the market for Franson never seemed to materialize last summer and he ended up getting a two-year deal from Buffalo with an AAV of $3.325MM. It’s becoming more and more likely that Russell will end up having to do the same; ink a short-term contract for far less money than most pundits imagined at the outset of free agency. PHR predicted a four-year deal for the veteran defender with an AAV of $4.5MM. At this point it doesn’t appear Russell will be able to secure a pact anywhere near that total value.
Even though Franson and Russell are both defenseman and have experienced similar frustrations in free agency, albeit a year apart, the two players are more unlike than alike in terms of style and production. Franson was a darling of the advanced stats crowd due primarily to his strong offensive contributions at five-on-five. During the three-season stretch from 2012-13 to 2014-15, Franson tallied 0.94 Pts/60 in five-on-five situations, a figure better than that of Keith Yandle (0.91) over the same period. Of course we know Yandle is widely considered to be one of the top offensive blue liners in the game and was recently rewarded with a rich contract from Florida as a result.
Russell, on the other hand, is more of an old school favorite. He blocks a ton of shots, leading the league by averaging 3.4 blocked-shots-per-game this past season. Russell is fairly mobile and produces enough offense to draw the description of puck-mover. However he struggles in the possession department, ranking 114th out of 124 defensemen who played at least 1,000 minutes at five-on-five with a Corsi For % (CF%) of 45.3%. Because of that, Russell doesn’t rate too well among the analytically-inclined.
It’s possible that Russell’s market has been adversely affected due to more teams utilizing advanced statistics in their decision-making process. Then again it was only five months ago that Dallas agreed to ship two prospects and a conditional second-round draft choice to acquire his services. Chances are there are plenty of teams that still value what Russell does well and that he’ll sign a contract soon enough. Like Franson a year ago, Russell has had to wait longer than expected and likely won’t get either the term or the money originally predicted, but he’s too good not to land on his feet somewhere before the start of the season.
Capology 101: College Free Agents
With the rumors surrounding Jimmy Vesey and Thomas Di Pauli this offseason taking hold, PHR takes a quick look at how the CBA treats players who choose the NCAA development route.
Generally, a team who drafts a present or future college player retains their exclusive negotiating rights for four years, but that differs with the age of a player when they are signed.
18 and 19 year olds
Teams own a player’s rights up to and including the August 15th following his graduation* if the player is or becomes a college student prior to June 1st following his selection.** The player must remain a student through to his college class’s graduation, and the player was 18 or 19 when drafted.
If a player quits school before his last semester, his drafting team owns his rights until the later of:
- the 4th June 1st following his draft, or
- 30 days after NHL Central Registry receives notice that the player is not a student.
If a player quits school after his last semester starts, and is in his 4th year of college and either 4th year of NCAA eligibility or scheduled to graduate, then his drafting team owns his rights until the August 15th following his college termination.
20+
If a player drafted at age 20 is or becomes a college student, then the drafting team retains his rights until the later of:
- the 2nd June 1st following his draft, or
- 30 days after NHL Central Registry receives notice that the player is not a student.
Some pundits call the entire system a NCAA loophole, but the reality is much more nuanced. Teams still get four years of exclusive negotiating rights while a player seeking to enter unrestricted free agency must still sign an entry level contract wherever they sign. What that means is that a player finishing college could join the team that drafted him and burn off a year of his ELC. Going to free agency, however, removes that option, and leaves a year of free agency money on the table. It is a give and take that protects both parties.
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*Graduation is defined as the class with which the player is scheduled to graduate during his final semester. It is not his matriculating class.
**The same rules apply if a player receives a Bona Fide Offer and enters college prior to the 2nd June 1st following the draft.