Panthers Rumors

In recent memory, few have taken advantage of their pending UFA status like Panthers winger Sam Reinhart. The 28-year-old has exploded in his third season in South Florida, producing at a 61-goal, 106-point pace through his first 42 games. He’ll shatter his previous career highs of 33 goals and 82 points, set during his first campaign with the Panthers in 2021-22.

That production has elevated Reinhart to the title of the league’s best pending UFA, at least with Maple Leafs winger William Nylander off the market. As such, most expected Reinhart’s camp to push for a deal closer to his Toronto counterpart’s eight-year, $92MM deal that carries a $11.5MM AAV. However, in his latest for The Athletic, Pierre LeBrun says that won’t necessarily be the case.

Firstly, he stresses that only preliminary extension discussions between Panthers GM Bill Zito and Reinhart’s agent, Newport Sports’ Craig Oster, have taken place. But, in LeBrun’s words, Reinhart “really, really wants to stay in South Florida,” and that could cause a potential extension to come in below the $10MM-plus AAV mark that some are expecting. While tax advantages in contract signings with certain teams are generally overblown in public discourse, there is a documented history of players taking discounts on market value in no-income-tax states like Florida, Dallas and Tennessee that LeBrun points out.

LeBrun also doesn’t believe Zito would be willing to entertain a deal that stretches into the $10MM range, given the team’s salary structure. The team’s longer-term commitments to their stars are clearly laid out – captain Aleksander Barkov carries a $10MM cap hit through 2030, last season’s team MVP Matthew Tkachuk carries a $9.5MM cap hit for the same length, and starting netminder Sergei Bobrovsky carries a $10MM cap hit through 2026. He won’t be willing to give Reinhart a deal that eclipses any of the above.

However, despite Reinhart being likely to receive offers of $10MM-plus per year from other teams on the open market, LeBrun posits Reinhart may be amicable to Zito’s desires. That’s because he’s likely to prioritize contract length in his discussions, says LeBrun, and it’s easy to see why. While he’s got ten seasons and over 650 NHL games under his belt, he’s never signed a contract longer than three years, and he’s now wrapping up his third deal signed after his entry-level contract expired in 2018.

So, if Zito is willing to go eight years on an extension, that could get Reinhart locked in at a cheaper price than most expected after his breakout year. There’s some recent precedence in terms of team salary structure that could offer insight into what Reinhart’s final extension could look like, too.

Take the Canadiens last summer, who needed an extension for star RFA sniper Cole Caufield after the completion of his entry-level contract. While his 2022-23 campaign was nearly halved due to a shoulder injury, he produced at a 46-goal pace through his 46 appearances. Given he was just in his third NHL season on a rebuilding team, few would have batted an eye if his extension was signed in the $8MM-$9.5MM range per season.

Instead, he took an eight-year deal with a slight discount in the cap hit department at $7.85MM. It was $25K less per season than captain Nick Suzuki, who Canadiens GM Kent Hughes obviously believes should be the team’s highest-paid forward at this stage in their rebuild. While Suzuki and Caufield are a younger duo, it wouldn’t be a far-fetched comparison to project that difference onto the potential difference in cap hits between Reinhart and Tkachuk. Could an eight-year deal worth $9.25MM per season be enough to keep Reinhart from heading to market on July 1?

Zito has a busy few months ahead of him. He also needs to hold extension talks with defensemen Gustav Forsling and Brandon Montour, who are currently locked into a combined bargain price of $6.17MM. Oliver Ekman-Larsson, who leads Panthers defensemen in points at the halfway mark of the season, is also a pending UFA earning only $2.25MM. Getting Reinhart done for seven figures per season would open a precious few thousand dollars to devote to the future of their defense corps.