The Red Wings have missed the playoffs for the ninth consecutive season, prompting hockey pundits and fans to question the direction of the team and whether general manager Steve Yzerman is the right man to lead the club. Yzerman was hired six years ago to steer the Red Wings through a rebuild, and while he has hit on some of his moves, he hasn’t been able to lead the Red Wings back to the playoffs in what has become the longest postseason drought in the franchise’s 98-year history. The Red Wings have been close to making the playoffs the last few seasons, but they need a big summer to get them over the hump and back into the hunt in the Eastern Conference.
Detroit’s play has been incredibly inconsistent in the past two seasons. They start slow and then pick up their play in the middle of the season, only to fall apart down the stretch. This year, the club was boosted by a coaching change after Christmas when they relieved Derek Lalonde of his duties and replaced him with Todd McLellan. The Red Wings went 17-5-2 after the coaching change to get back into the thick of the playoff race, but then rattled off six regulation losses and never recovered.
Assessing what went wrong is essential before determining what needs to be done this summer. Detroit was undone by the worst penalty kill in the NHL this season, with a success rate of just 69.5%, almost three percent lower than the Wild’s second-worst penalty kill. The other issue the Red Wings need to address is their poor 5-on-5 offensive numbers, largely covered up by their effective power play. Detroit scored the fourth-lowest 5-on-5 goals in the league, which they must improve upon if they hope to reach the playoffs next year.
Detroit’s rebuild could be characterized as still in motion or taking too long. Despite that, the Red Wings have plenty of reasons for optimism. Many of their top players, such as Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider, are in their early to mid-20s, and they have several promising prospects, including Nate Danielson and Axel Sandin-Pellikka, who are nearing NHL readiness. This summer, it will be crucial to surround these younger pieces with capable NHL talent who can elevate the team and play within McLellan’s structure.
Yzerman’s work has been a mixed bag in Detroit, with some successes and setbacks regarding trades and free agency. This summer, he badly needs to avoid mistakes in free agency, which he has had his fair share of in recent seasons. Defenseman Justin Holl’s three-year $10.2MM contract has been an unmitigated disaster, and center Andrew Copp was signed to a massive five-year deal worth $28.125MM in 2022 but has fallen to the bottom six and has seen his offensive numbers drop off. The list could go on, but the point is that Yzerman has struggled to build around his stars. Many of his forwards are overpaid, and Yzerman likely isn’t going to find much help in free agency without overpaying even more players. The trade market is probably the best avenue for Yzerman, and it is a place where he has found a lot of success in his career as a GM, but that doesn’t mean he shouldn’t dip his toe in the free agent market.
Detroit needs a right-shot defenseman to slide in behind Seider on the second pairing after Holl and Jeff Petry did not work out in that role in previous seasons. This is one spot where Yzerman could find help with free agency, as Aaron Ekblad is available. However, the cost could become prohibitive. The Red Wings are projected to have $22MM in cap space this summer but will need to sign five players and have a handful of RFAs. Daily Faceoff projects Ekblad to sign a contract in the range of $6.9MM annually. If Detroit were to miss on him, Brent Burns of the Carolina Hurricanes would also be available, but at 40 years old, he wouldn’t be a long-term fit.
The most prolific right-shot defenseman on the trade market will likely be Erik Karlsson of the Pittsburgh Penguins. Karlsson would help the Red Wings at 5-on-5 but wouldn’t relieve their penalty kill. Karlsson can still put up points, but he comes with a $10MM price tag that Pittsburgh might be willing to retain part of. Detroit was 25th in offense this season, and Karlsson could help from the backend, but his presence would put a lot of pressure on whoever he is paired with. At 34 years old, the three-time Norris Trophy winner can still put up points, but the turnovers and defensive lapses have reached another level this season, giving any team that tries to acquire him serious pause.
Rasmus Ristolainen of the Philadelphia Flyers could be a player of interest to the Red Wings, but they would be wise to avoid making that move, given the past state of his game and the $5.1MM cap hit he carries. There will be an appeal to Ristolainen’s game since he is a big body with a nasty shot, but the warts in his game would be too much for Detroit to add to a top-four that is already not very good.
If Detroit can’t compensate for their penalty-killing and goal-scoring troubles, Mitch Marner is an available UFA who would help in both areas. The 27-year-old forward is the type of player the Red Wings could and should be aggressive in pursuing. Sure, he would eat up most of the remaining cap space they have, but he would be a top-line player who could help improve their penalty-killing and 5-on-5 play. The Markham, Ontario native has received Selke Trophy consideration for six straight years and could be just the piece Detroit has been missing in their top six.
Detroit could look to the free agency and trade markets for scoring depth. If that is a route they are interested in, Yzerman would be wise to avoid overspending on another mid-tier player and instead look for a short-term bounce-back candidate, such as Andrei Kuzmenko, who has performed well since being traded to the Kings at the deadline. Detroit has too much money tied up in too many underperforming depth players and can’t afford to insert another one into the lineup long-term. Marner is an exception, as he is a top-line player and should perform well through the bulk of his next deal.
Detroit fans are hopeful that a playoff position is within their grasp for next year, and the bones are in place to make that happen; they will just need a strong summer to address the holes in the roster construction and the shortcomings that kept them out of the postseason this year.
Photo by James Carey Lauder-USA TODAY Sports