Free Agent Profile: Thomas Vanek
We are a week into free agency and a top ten member of the class is still available. Thomas Vanek, ranked eighth among PHR’s Top 50 Free Agents, still remains unsigned to the surprise of many. Vanek was a free agent last summer as well, after having the final season of a three-year $19.5MM contract with the Minnesota Wild bought out. While there were questions about his game then as well, and an apparent lack of interest that led to a one-year, $2.6MM deal with the Red Wings (a 60% drop in value from his $6.5MM AAV with the Wild), there was still sufficient enough demand that Detroit felt they had to lock him up right away on July 1st. This year? Not so much.
The strange thing about Vanek’s 2017 scenario is that he is coming off a strong, redeeming campaign. Rather than last summer, when he was fresh off the worst season of his career and a buyout, Vanek instead entered the free agent market this year with a 38-point season under his belt, seven more points in six less games than 2015-16. Vanek played extremely well in Detroit, posting 15 goals and 23 assists in 48 games, creating plenty of buzz around his trade deadline status. Although rumors swirled that Vanek would like to re-sign with the Red Wings, the team nevertheless got what they could for him, sending Vanek to the Florida Panthers for Dylan McIlrath and a third-round draft pick. In Florida, Vanek added two goals and eight assists in 20 games, but it wasn’t enough for the Panthers to make the playoffs and Vanek was out of time to show off for teams in need of scoring this summer.
Apparently, he needed to do more in 2016-17. With 697 points in 885 NHL games, Vanek’s history as an elite scorer is well established. A two-time 40-goal scorer and power play wizard, who has twice in his career topped a point-per-game pace for a whole season, there is little doubt about Vanek’s track record of creating offense. However, there are questions as to just how fast that offensive ability is slowing down. Vanek is certainly no longer a threat for 40 or even 30 goals, nor does he sit atop the league in man-up production any more. While he seemingly proved in Detroit that he can still deliver 40 or 50 points, he also looked slower up and down the ice and lacked the same quickness and creativity in the offensive zone that he used to have. The lack of interest could also be due to a noticeable drop-off in defensive ability. Vanek was never a Selke candidate, but he has always played a sound two-way game. As he has slowed down the past two years, his defensive stats have dropped off and he often looked solely focused with keeping up on offense, rather than playing a complete game. Endurance, and all that it entails in the back-and-forth game of hockey, simply seems to be an issue for Vanek and is unlikely to improve.
Nonetheless, 48 points is 48 points and there is a reason why Vanek was ranked #8 out of all free agents. The shooting ability and offensive instincts are still there for the 33-year-old, and 45-year-old Jaromir Jagr is still making that skill set work in the NHL. It’s only a matter of time before Vanek signs somewhere, but just like last summer, it appears as if it could be another bargain for a player whose age and pace of play seemed to be blown out of proportion while his experience and offensive contribution are under-rated.
Potential Suitors
We originally projected that Vanek would return to the Florida Panthers, who were in need of scoring help, especially with Jonathan Marchessault and Reilly Smith now in Las Vegas. However, Dale Tallon and the Panthers went in a different direction, bringing back Evgeni Dadonov from the KHL and inking a different veteran scorer, Radim Vrbata. Like Vrbata and Jagr, Vanek seems best-suited for one-year or short-term deals the rest of the way, especially if he’s struggling to establish his value. Who could use a short-term scorer? A return to Detroit could make sense. The fit worked out great and there were talks of an extension prior to the deadline trade, so the two sides might see if Lightning can strike twice. The Red Wings lack much cap space and should be rebuilding, but GM Ken Holland might have missed that memo. Another possibility could be the San Jose Sharks. The Sharks are still a contender out West, just one year removed from a Stanley Cup appearance, but have had a very quiet off-season and just lost a high-scoring veteran winger in Patrick Marleau. This year’s Western Conference Cup qualifier, the Nashville Predators, traded away a key forward in Colin Wilson and have more than enough cap space to squeeze Vanek in if they so choose. The Boston Bruins could use another scoring threat in the top nine and they might not mind having Vanek, notorious for his strong play against Boston during his years with the Sabres and Canadiens, on their side for once. Finally, don’t rule out the Los Angeles Kings, who certainly don’t need to get slower, but who surely need more scoring with few dependable options left on the market.
Expected Contract
We predicted that Vanek would sign a one-year, $3MM deal this off-season, a logical next step after a bounce back season on a one-year, $2.6MM contract. That range still seems reasonable, unless the market really is as quiet as it seems and no one is willing to pony up that kind of money. The affordable contracts signed by aging scorers like Kris Versteeg (#26) and Ales Hemsky (#44) combined with the availability of Jagr (#13), Drew Stafford (#21), and Jiri Hudler (#40), doesn’t help Vanek’s cause. He’s not ready to retire and he won’t move overseas, but don’t be surprised if Vanek remains unsigned, holding out for market value, before finally signing for less than he did last summer.
Red Wings Notes: Tatar, Athanasiou, DeKeyser, Nelson
With Tomas Tatar and Andreas Athanasiou still waiting on contracts, the Athletic’s Craig Custance projects what they could earn once they sign on the dotted line. Tatar has been one of the few Red Wings scoring at a regular clip and his deal should be around $4.3MM per year. Term and dollars will be important to both parties, and Custance calls this the “tricky” notion of Tatar’s deal. Tatar potted 25 goals last season and is deserving of a significant raise. Meanwhile, Athanasiou is still relatively young, though many can already see how his devastating speed and scoring prowess could quickly translate into multiple 20 goal seasons, and possibly, 30. The Wings, according to Custance, could get him around a $1.9MM AAV because of his lesser time in the NHL. But if the trends continue, Athanasiou will come at a bridge bargain now, while getting a significant pay raise later.
- Defenseman Danny DeKeyser has become somewhat of a pariah for some Red Wings fans, but The Athletic’s Jack Han takes a closer look at the somewhat predictable decline in DeKeyser’s play and numbers. Signed by Detroit as an unrestricted free agent in 2013, DeKeyser flourished in the top six under Mike Babcock and earned the nickname “the human eraser” for his staunch commitment to his end of the ice while keeping opposing scorers in check. All of this changed, according to Han, when new coach Jeff Blashill took over and the defensive corps weakened.
DeKeyser was given top pair minutes, which exposed him against the better players on opposing squads. Worse, the generous contract from general manager Ken Holland only increased the scrutiny on his play, especially after a disastrous season in 2016-17. Is DeKeyser truly as bad as some think? Han doesn’t think so. He takes a look at Corsi and Scoring Chances to quantify DeKeyser’s value and after a thorough job, notes that DeKeyser certainly isn’t deserving of high end minutes. Regardless of where he does end up, it’s destined to be a rough road with a Red Wings blue line that isn’t exactly top tier. - With the hiring of Rick Tocchet in Arizona, Calder Cup Champion and current Grand Rapids bench boss Todd Nelson will remain with the Griffins. Nelson, hired back in 2015, has guided the Griffins to a second round showing in 2015-16, and a championship in 2016-17. The Red Wings are looking at infusing more youth into the lineup and Nelson steered much of that young talent with a steady hand. Having Nelson in Grand Rapids gives the organization peace of mind knowing that the development of several critical players, notably Evgeny Svechnikov, will be overseen by one of the best in the AHL.
Howard, Mrazek Still In Detroit Plans For Next Season
- There has been much speculation about the Detroit Red Wings’ goaltending situation, as they once again have an expensive duo of Jimmy Howard and Petr Mrazek heading into the season. While the team doesn’t really need both in a rebuilding season, Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press tells us they currently plan on heading into the year with both in tow. That means you’ll likely hear their names bandied about near the trade deadline once again, if any teams find themselves needing goaltending.
Xavier Ouellet Re-Signs With Detroit Red Wings
The Detroit Red Wings have re-signed an important young defender, inking Xavier Ouellet to a two-year, $2.5MM contract. That gives the Red Wings nine defensemen under NHL contracts.
Ouelett, 23, was perhaps the brightest spot on defense for the Red Wings last season, getting into 66 games and recording 12 points. The second-round pick has some sneaky offensive upside, and will be relied upon even more next season in a bigger role. With the team bringing in Trevor Daley and Luke Witkowski, and still having Mike Green and Danny DeKeyser under contract, Niklas Kronwall and Jonathan Ericsson‘s roles are slowly being diminished. Ouellet’s emergence will speed that process up even further, as he should get a regular shift all season this year.
It’s interesting to note that though the Red Wings aren’t expected to compete, they’ve added more defensemen than they need for next season. Perhaps that could mean a move of Green or someone else is on their way out this summer, or that they plan on hoarding assets until the trade deadline once again. By dealing players like Brendan Smith and Tomas Jurco last summer the team was able to collect some extra draft picks, a process they’re likely to repeat this year.
Minor Transactions: 7/1/17
Some additional signings that happened today:
- The Carolina Hurricanes added Brenden Kichton to a one-year, two-way contract. The Hurricanes announced that the deal is for $700K in the NHL and $235K in the AHL. Kichton played 63 games with the Manitoba Moose last season, recording 23 points (1-22). Dennis Robertson and Jeremy Smith also signed deals with the Hurricanes.
- The Canucks inked Anton Rodin to a one-year, $700K deal according to Sportsnet. Rodin struggled with injury last year, playing only three games for Vancouver.
- The Detroit Red Wings brought Luke Witkowski into the fold for a “toughness” aspect. Witkowski is a Michigan native and was added with a two-year, $1.4MM deal. Interestingly, it appears that he will shuffle between defense and forward for Detroit. Despite a glut of forwards, Detroit may want him to play the role that Steve Ott did last season, especially since it was Witkowski who broke Anthony Mantha‘s finger in a scuffle last season while with Tampa Bay.
- Winnipeg inked Michael Sgarbossa to a one-year, $650K deal. Last season, he was with both the Anaheim Ducks and Florida Panthers. The 24-year-old had a combined nine points (2-7) with both teams. The Jets also added Buddy Robinson with a one-year deal worth $650K. It’s a two-way contract.
- Defenseman Seth Helgeson signed a one-year, two-way deal with the Islanders. The former New Jersey Devil played nine games with the big club last season, and spent 48 games with the AHL Albany Devils, scoring two goals and adding seven assists.
- Patrik Nemeth re-upped with Dallas, agreeing to a one-year, $945K deal. Nemeth had three points last season with the Stars in 40 games. Brian Flynn also hammered out a deal with Dallas, agreeing to a one-year, two-way contract for $700K. Flynn spent last season with Montreal. Mike McKenna also signed on with the Stars, agreeing to a one-year, two-way contract. Dallas also agreed to terms with Brent Regner, who signed a one-year, two-way deal.
- The Sabres signed Matt Tennyson to a two-year deal, with the first year being on a two-way contract while the second is a one-way deal. Tennyson spent last season with the Carolina Hurricanes, where he played 45 games. He had six assists. Seth Griffith and Adam Wilcox also inked deals with the Sabres. Griffith agreed to a one-year, $650K deal while Wilcox’s one-year deal is a
- The Providence Journal’s Mark Divver reports that Jordan Szwarz signed a two-way deal with the Boston Bruins. Szwarz spent all of last season with the Providence Bruins, where he had 54 points (22-32) in 65 games.
- Derek Grant is on the move according to Darren Dreger, agreeing to a one-year deal with the Anaheim Ducks for $650K. It’s a one-way contract for Grant, who spent the majority of his time last season with the Buffalo Sabres. He also saw six games with Nashville.
- Montreal and Joe Morrow agreed to a one-year, one-way contract. Formerly with the Bruins, Morrow had one assist with the B’s, but only appeared in 17 games, as opposed to the 33 he saw a season prior.
- Ottawa made a slew of signings, adding Ben Sexton Max Reinhart, Tyler Randell, Erik Burgdoerfer, and Danny Taylor to deals. Reinhart, Taylor and Randell all signed one-year deals, while Burgdoerfer and Sexton agreed to two-year deals.
- Mat Bodie signed a one-year, two-way contract with the Tampa Bay Lightning. Bodie appeared in a combined 62 games for Rochester and Hartford of the AHL last season. The Bolts also added Alex Gallant with a one-year deal. Gallant spent last year with the San Jose Barracuda. Finally, Michael Leighton and Jamie McBain both agreed to one-year, two-way deal as well.
- Kyle Rau and Minnesota came to terms on a one-year, $700K deal. Rau’s deal is a two-way deal and brings him back to his home state.
- TSN’s Aaron Ward tweets that Paul Carey agreed to terms with the New York Rangers. Ward reports that the deal is for one-year, and is worth $650K. The Blueshirts also added Cole Schneider to a one-year, two-way contract.
- The Flames brought Marek Hrivik aboard, signing him to a one-year, two-way deal. Postmedia’s Wes Gilbertson tweets the move is for organizational depth. According to Fox Sports West’s Jon Rosen, the Flames have also signed their 2016 seventh-round pick Stepan Falkovsky to a three-year entry-level contract.
- The Oilers signed Eddie Pasquale to a one-year, two-way deal. Pasquale was allowed to walk away from the Red Wings organization. Another player signed away from the Red Wings organization was Mitch Callahan, who agreed to a two-year, two-way deal. Both were reported by Ryan Rishaug. Keegan Lowe also inked a one-year, two-way deal. The Oilers weren’t done, also adding Ryan Stanton with a $700k deal. The deal is for two years, and is a two-way contract. Edmonton also inked forwards Brian Ferlin, Grayson Downing and Ty Rattie to one-year deals.
- Nashville agreed to terms with Pierre-Cedric Labrie, who came from the Blackhawks organization. Labrie agreed to a one-year, two-way contract. The deal is worth $650K.
- The Stanley Cup Champion Penguins added some names today, all on one-year deals. Jarred Tinordi, Zach Trotman and Greg McKegg all agreed to a single-year deal. Chris Summers signed on for a two-year deal. In an additional release, the team has re-signed Tom Sestito, Frank Corrado to one-year two-way deals, and goaltender Casey DeSmith to a two-year two-way deal. All three will earn $650K in the NHL.
- The Sharks and goalie Antoine Bibeau signed off on a one-year, two-way deal. Bibeau was not offered a qualifying deal with his former team in Toronto.
- The Maple Leafs weren’t done, as they announced the signings of Colin Greening to a one-year deal (two-way, $750K), and Chris Mueller (two-way, $650K) and Vincent LoVerde (two-way, $725K) to two-year deals.
- The Winnipeg Jets have signed defenseman Cameron Schilling to a one-year, two-way contract. Schilling was with the Rockford IceHogs and Ontario Reign last season, where he scored 26 points.
- The Colorado Avalanche have signed three more players, inking Andrew Agozzino and David Warsofsky to two-year deals while bringing in Joe Cannata for just one season.
- Arizona has signed Zac Rinaldo, Michael Sislo, Andrew Campbell and Joel Hanley to one-year two-way contracts. It’s a fall for Rinaldo, who was once traded for a third-round pick.
- Chase Balisy, Connor Brickley, Reece Scarlett, Harri Sateri and Curtis Valk have all signed one-year contracts with the Florida Panthers. Interestingly, Brickley was the Vegas Golden Knights’ selection from the Hurricanes during the expansion draft but was a Group VI free agent this summer.
- The Devils have added Brian Strait, Bracken Kearns and Brian Gibbons on one-year two-way deals, bringing in the veterans for $650K at the NHL level.
- The Vegas Golden Knights have signed six players. They have signed forward T.J. Tynan and defenseman Brad Hunt to two-year deals at $650,000 per season. They inked forward Paul Thompson, forward Stefan Matteau, defenseman Chris Casto and goalie Maxime Lagace to one-year contracts at $650,000.
Red Wings Acquire Keeper Tom McCollum
On the biggest signing day of the year, the Calgary Flames and Detroit Red Wings have instead been talking trade. The Flames have agreed to send goalie Tom McCollum, extended only for Expansion Draft purposes, to the Detroit Red Wings for a conditional seventh-round draft pick, according to TSN’s Darren Dreger. The Flames, who have recently added both Mike Smith and Eddie Lack in net and have to also accommodate prospects Jon Gillies and Mason McDonald, were reportedly working to loan McCollum out to another AHL team anyway. Instead, McCollum will head back to Detroit, the organization who drafted him and where he spent the first seven years of his career, presumably to back up Jared Coreau in the AHL.
2017 NHL Free Agency Tracker
Stay with PHR for all of the free agency signings this off-season. As of noon ET on July 1st, unrestricted free agency is open, but not before many extensions earlier in June. This page serves to organize everything in one spot, and are linked to the PHR story that corresponds with the signing. All July signings will be separated by date while June signings are organized alphabetically by team. It will be updated as soon as stories post.
Please note that signings on this list start on June 12.
July 1st:
- Anaheim re-signs Cam Fowler (8 years/$52MM)
- Anaheim signs Ryan Miller (2 years/$4MM)
- Arizona signs Adam Clendening (1 year/$650K)
- Boston signs Paul Postma (1 year/$725K)
- Buffalo signs Benoit Pouliot (1 year/$1.15MM)
- Buffalo signs Chad Johnson (1 year/$2.5MM)
- Carolina signs Justin Williams (2 years/$9MM)
- Chicago signs Patrick Sharp (1 year/$1MM)
- Chicago signs J-F Berube (2 years/$3MM)
- Chicago signs Jordan Oesterle (2 years/$1.3MM)
- Colorado signs Jonathan Bernier (1 year/$2.75MM)
- Dallas signs Martin Hanzal (3 years/$14.25MM)
- Dallas signs Tyler Pitlick (3 years/$3MM)
- Detroit signs Trevor Daley (3 years/$9.534MM)
- Florida signs Radim Vrbata (1 year/$2.5MM)
- Los Angeles signs Mike Cammalleri (1 year)
- Los Angeles signs Cal Petersen ( 2 year ELC)
- Los Angeles signs Christian Folin (1 year/$850K)
- Minnesota signs Ryan Murphy (1 year/$700k)
- Minnesota signs Landon Ferraro (2 years/$1.4MM)
- Minnesota signs Kyle Quincey (1 year/$1.25MM)
- Minnesota signs Cal O’Reilly (2 years/$1.4MM)
- Montreal signs Kyle Alzner (5 years/$22.5MM)
- Montreal signs Byron Froese
- Montreal signs Peter Holland
- Nashville signs Nick Bonino (4 years)
- Nashville signs Scott Hartnell (1 year/$1MM)
- Nashville signs Anders Lindback (1 year/$650K)
- Nashville signs Matt O’Connor (1 year/$650K)
- New Jersey signs Brian Boyle (2 years/$5.1MM)
- NY Rangers sign Ondrej Pavelec (1 year/$1.3MM)
- NY Rangers sign Kevin Shattenkirk (4 year/$26.6MM)
- Ottawa signs Nate Thompson (2 years/$3.3MM)
- Philadelphia re-signs Mike Vecchione (2 years/$1.88MM)
- Pittsburgh signs Antti Niemi (1 year/$700K)
- Pittsburgh signs Matt Hunwick (3 years/$6.75MM
- San Jose re-signs Martin Jones (6 years/$34.5MM)
- San Jose re-signs Marc-Edouard Vlasic (8 years/$56MM)
- San Jose re-signs Joe Thornton
- St. Louis signs Beau Bennett (1 year/$650K)
- St. Louis signs Chris Thorburn (2 years/$1.88MM)
- St. Louis re-signs Oskar Sundqvist (1 year/$650K)
- Tampa Bay signs Dan Girardi (2 years/$6MM)
- Toronto signs Ron Hainsey (2 years/$3.25MM)
- Toronto signs Curtis McElhinney (1 year/$850K)
- Toronto signs Dominic Moore (1 year/$1MM)
- Toronto signs Garret Sparks
- Winnipeg signs Dmitri Kulikov (3 years/$13MM)
- Winnipeg signs Steve Mason (2 years/$8.2MM)
- Vancouver signs Sam Gagner (3 years/$9.45MM)
- Vancouver signs Michael Del Zotto (2 years/$6MM)
- Vancouver signs Anders Nilsson (2 years/$5MM)
Red Wings Sign Trevor Daley To Three-Year Deal
The Detroit Red Wings inked defenseman Trevor Daley to a three year/$9.534MM deal. TSN’s Bob McKenzie confirmed that the AAV was $3.178MM.
This move has been rumored for days, putting the bidding between the Red Wings and the Bruins. Detroit apparently won the bidding war for the two-time Stanley Cup champion, though it comes at a steeper price than others would have paid. PHR had Daley as the 23rd best free agent.
The 33-year-old defenseman is a puck mover Detroit craves and had 19 points (4-15) in 56 games last season. The Athletic’s Craig Custance wrote on Friday that Daley is a good locker room presence and quoted one general manager as saying he’s a “fourth forward.”
But he doesn’t come without concern. The Red Wings continue to talk about wanting to make the playoffs, despite clearly finishing behind the pack last season with only 79 points. While Daley adds some skill to the blueline, it seems like more of a band-aid move than a deal for the long term build of the team. Regardless, Detroit general manager Ken Holland has reiterated that his goal is to return to the playoffs, and the signing of Daley indicates this strategy.
Free Agency Rumor Round-Up
Free agency is set to open in mere hours, but there are already plenty of rumors out there about deals that will become official at noon ET. Here are all of the deals expected to be made official this afternoon with the link to the original PHR article or recent report:
Anaheim Ducks expected to sign G Ryan Miller (per TSN’s Bob McKenzie)
Boston Bruins expected to sign LW Kenny Agostino
Buffalo Sabres expected to sign G Chad Johnson
Chicago Blackhawks expected to sign RW Patrick Sharp
Colorado Avalanche expected to sign G Jonathan Bernier
Dallas Stars expected to sign C Martin Hanzal (per TSN’s Bob McKenzie)
Detroit Red Wings expected to sign D Trevor Daley
Florida Panthers expected to sign RW Evgeni Dadonov
Florida Panthers expected to sign C Micheal Haley
Montreal Canadiens expected to sign D Karl Alzner
New York Rangers expected to sign G Ondrej Pavelec
Philadelphia Flyers expected to sign G Brian Elliott
Tampa Bay Lightning expected to sign D Dan Girardi
Vancouver Canucks expected to sign D Michael Del Zotto
Vancouver Canucks expected to sign G Anders Nilsson
Vancouver Canucks expected to sign C Sam Gagner (per TSN’s Bob McKenzie)
Winnipeg Jets expected to sign G Steve Mason (per TSN’s Bob McKenzie)
Detroit Red Wings Show Interest In Luke Witkowski
- Ansar Khan of MLive brings up some Detroit news, indicating that the Red Wings are interested in former Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Luke Witkowski. Witkowski isn’t a big name, but could potentially log some minutes in the NHL as Detroit continues to rebuild. The team has also been linked to Trevor Daley, another potential depth defender for next season.