Decision On Jeff Blashill's Future Could Be Delayed Until Offseason
- Although the Red Wings have come crashing down as of late, Ted Kulfan of the Detroit News believes it’s unlikely that a midseason coaching change is on the horizon. Instead, he expects the team to wait until after the season and make a decision on Jeff Blashill’s fate at that time as well as GM Ken Holland. Holland’s contract is up at the end of the season so it may make more sense to make a decision on both their futures at the same time once April rolls around.
Atlantic Notes: Hoffman, Kane, Red Wings Rebuild
While a lot of talk about the Ottawa Senators currently revolves around defenseman Erik Karlsson, who will become a free agent in 2019 and expects top dollar, the Hockey News’ Lyle Richardson writes that a deal isn’t likely to happen any time soon as general manager Pierre Dorion still has hope that he can eventually work out an extension when the two parties can begin negotiating next July.
However, Richardson instead suggests the team might focus on moving some other pieces this season, especially pointing a finger at center Mike Hoffman. The 28-year-old will have two years remaining at 5.19MM AAV after this season, which increases his value. While his numbers are a little down (he’s only scored once in his last nine games), Hoffman is still in line for a solid 20-goal season as he currently has nine goals and 13 assists in 30 games. On top of that, he has put up 20 goals in each of his last three seasons.
Besides that, players such as Cody Ceci and Jean-Gabriel Pageau are other trade options, according to Richardson, but considering they are 23 and 25, respectively, the team may want to keep their youth if the goal is to rebuild the team. Bobby Ryan, Dion Phaneuf and Derick Brassard are also trade possibilities, but even less likely as all three have modified no-trade clauses and because of their high salaries, are unlikely to be going anywhere.
- In the same article, Richardson writes the Buffalo Sabres are not likely to trade forward Evander Kane before the upcoming holiday trade freeze (Dec. 19 to 26). It’s more likely the team will make a move after that as they are still trying to raise his pricetag. The 26-year-old looks to be having a career year as he already has 31 points this season in 33 contests, nearly a point a game, along with 14 goals. Richardson writes that several teams are likely to bid on Kane, including the San Jose Sharks, the St. Louis Blues, the Anaheim Ducks and the Calgary Flames, although few of them are good fits.
- Craig Custance of The Athletic (subscription required) compares the Toronto Maple Leafs roster and to the rebuilding plan of the Detroit Red Wings, pointing out where Detroit stands when it comes to building a franchise like the Maple Leafs. Custance writes that the obvious missing piece on the Red Wings is the lack of a superstar like Auston Matthews, but there some of the other pieces are present on the Red Wings roster. He compares Mitch Marner to that of Anthony Mantha, William Nylander to that of Dylan Larkin and Nazem Kadri to that of prospect Michael Rasussen and keeps going. Among many conclusions, Custance points out the lack of a superstar as well as the team’s need to grab a franchise-changing defenseman and goaltender, but feels Detroit might not be that far away if luck rolls their way.
Are The Atlantic Division Playoff Teams Already Set?
It’s December and the 82-game NHL season is not even half over. Think what you will about the “Thanksgiving Rule”, but a lot can change over a long season. There’s no telling exactly how things will shake out this early in the campaign.
Yet, it seems almost impossible that the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs entries from the Atlantic Division are not already set. The Tampa Bay Lightning (23-6-2, 48 pts, .774 PTS%) are the best team in the league. The Toronto Maple Leafs (20-13-1, 41 pts, .603 PTS%) are second in the division and tied for second in the Eastern Conference in points, despite a current three-game losing streak. The Boston Bruins (15-10-4, 34 pts, .586 PTS%) are the closest team to the Leafs in terms of points percentage in the East and rank third in points in the division with the least games played in the NHL. The rest of the teams in the Atlantic are not even close.
The Montreal Canadiens (14-14-4, 32 pts, .500 PTS%) perhaps represent the best bet at a spoiler in the Atlantic, but needed a 6-2-2 record in their last ten just to get to .500. The team is still struggling to find its identity under Claude Julien and there has been more talk of a rebuild than a playoff run this season. The Detroit Red Wings (12-13-7, 31 pts, .484 PTS%) are overachieving this season in the opinion of many, yet are still a ways out in the Atlantic. Despite a talented roster, the Florida Panthers (12-15-5, 29 pts, .453 PTS%) are in even worse shape. The Buffalo Sabres (8-18-7, 23 pts, .348 PTS%) are challenging for the worst record in the NHL and, with the team in turmoil, the Ottawa Senators (10-13-7, 27 pts, .450 PTS%) are trending in that direction as well.
As of now, these five Atlantic Division teams hold the five worst records in the Eastern Conference and five of the seven worst records in the entire NHL. Not only will they struggle to catch the Lightning, Leafs, and Bruins, but a wild card spot versus the relatively dominant Metropolitan Division also seems far outside the realm of possibility. If the Metro’s worst team is the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins (16-14-3, 35 pts, .530 PTS%), how could any of the five hope to beat out its fourth and fifth best teams, currently the identical records of the New York Rangers and New York Islanders (17-12-3, 37 pts, .578 PTS%)?
A lot can change over the course of the NHL season, but in 2017-18 it seems very likely that the Atlantic Division playoff status is already set before the 2018 segment of the season even begins. Tampa Bay simply has too much talent to slow down. Toronto has the talent and youth to keep pushing forward. Boston is only now getting healthy for the first time this season. All three teams are likely to get better as the season progresses and, in turn, the gap between them and the remainder of the Atlantic will only get worse.
Dylan Larkin The Only Untouchable In Detroit
Despite winning just once in their last 11 games, the Red Wings haven’t shifted to sell mode just yet, reports TSN’s Bob McKenzie on TSN 1050 (audio link). As a result of what is looking like a fairly weak Atlantic Division, they’re still within striking distance of a playoff spot, sitting five points out heading into play on Friday. If that time does come, however, McKenzie notes that the only true untouchable for Detroit will be Dylan Larkin, who has rebounded nicely after a disappointing sophomore campaign. He adds that wingers Anthony Mantha and Andreas Athanasiou are players that would fall just outside that category but would require a significant overpayment to acquire. Realistically, their most marketable trade chip would be pending UFA defenseman Mike Green, whose offensive prowess would be a boost to several contenders around the league, assuming they can fit in his $6MM cap hit.
Snapshots: Mrazek, Mete, Nylander
Petr Mrazek has been in the news recently since we found out that the Edmonton Oilers had a passing interest in the Detroit Red Wings goaltender, but Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet now says it may have been more than just that. Friedman joined Sportsnet 960 radio out of Calgary this morning, and explained that one source told him it was even closer than he had originally thought.
I heard they were looking at Mrazek last week, and somebody told me after we mentioned it that it was a lot closer than I had kinda thought. I think they’d worked out that Detroit was going to keep about half the money, and they were trying to figure out the draft pick.
That would mesh with what we learned from Craig Custance of The Athletic recently, that a proposed asking price for Mrazek would be a second or third-round pick depending on whether Detroit was retaining salary. It might not matter anymore, as Edmonton seems to have cooled on Mrazek after watching him more closely and the team has just welcomed Cam Talbot back off injured reserve.
- Victor Mete is busy trying to make the Canadian World Junior team after spending the early portion of the season with the Montreal Canadiens, but may have an even bigger international tournament in his future. Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic reports that Mete is very much on the radar of the Canadian Olympic team, but still has some hurdles if he ever were to be invited. The Canadiens could bring Mete back to the NHL squad after the World Junior tournament, and the CHL still doesn’t have an agreement with Hockey Canada on if it will lend players to the Olympic squad. Those decisions won’t be made until after the World Juniors are over, which end on January 5th.
- Speaking of World Junior decisions, the Buffalo Sabres still haven’t made a choice on Alexander Nylander according to Mike Harrington of The Buffalo News. Sabres GM Jason Botterill wants to see Nylander play more at the AHL level before making that decision, after an injury has taken away much of the young forward’s season so far. Nylander has been disappointing so far in his professional career, scoring just 32 points in 77 AHL games. The eighth-overall pick in 2016 has huge upside, but needs to get back on track this season.
Prospect Updates: Kyrou, Cholowski
The St. Louis Blues are already having a great year. Adding to those good feelings is the performance of 2016 second round pick Jordan Kyrou, who is already approaching his goal totals from last year in nearly half the games. Kyrou notched 94 points last season (30-64) and already has 58 (19-41) this season in just 30 games. Should he play a full slate of 66 games, he’s on pace for 112 points and looks to be trekking in a similar trajectory of Chicago Blackhawks’ winger Alex DeBrincat, who has been scoring as the Hawks had hoped at the NHL level. Kyrou has a slightly bigger frame, the 19-year-0ld has hardly been a secret to the Blues. The St. Louis Dispatch’s Jim Thomas wrote back in November that both Kyrou and fellow Blues prospect and current London Knights center Robert Thomas are “tearing up” the OHL. Kyrou is also one cut away from making the Team Canada roster, where it’s expected he’ll showcase his scoring flair on the world stage in a few weeks.
- The Detroit Red Wings, on the other hand, need all the help they can get and defenseman Dennis Cholowski, a controversial pick after Detroit passed on grabbing Jakob Chychrun, has seen his stock rise quite a bit since going to the Prince George Cougars of the WHL from St. Cloud State last season. Through 28 games, the speedy d-man has been nearly a point-per-game player with 25 points (8-17). The Red Wings are desperate for a speedy, puck moving defenseman who can contribute at both ends of the ice and anchor the blue line. It was the intent for Cholowski, who certainly had an upside but was viewed as a project. The Detroit Free Press’ Helene St. James believes that Cholowski could be traded to a playoff bound WHL team, which would give him a better competitive opportunity before heading to the AHL’s Grand Rapids Griffins by the end of their season. Though he was just cut by Team Canada (an expected move), the Red Wings brass are certainly crossing their fingers that their gamble to bet on a project instead of a sure-thing in Chychrun will pay off.
Team Canada’s First Cuts Include Cody Glass
TSN’s Bob McKenzie tweets that Vegas Golden Knights center Cody Glass has been cut from Canada’s World Junior team, along with Detroit Red Wings prospect Dennis Cholowski and Vancouver’s Kole Lind. Glass’ departure is somewhat of a surprise, if social media reactions are any indication. While they weren’t the only cuts today, they were two that certainly caught a lot of analysts off guard.
TSN projected Glass to be on the final roster back in August so the move is worthy of a double take. The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler tweets that Glass and Lind are second and third respectively in scoring for the WHL. Though the talent is hardly lacking for Canada, cutting two prominent scorers will get some attention. In addition to the aforementioned players, forward Jonathan Ang, and defenseman Logan Stanley were both cut loose.
To recap:
Canada Cuts:
F Cody Glass (Vegas Golden Knights)
F Kole Lind (Vancouver Canucks)
F Jonathan Ang (Florida Panthers)
D Dennis Cholowski (Detroit Red Wings)
D Logan Stanley (Winnipeg Jets)
G Samuel Harvey (2018 Draft Eligible)
More Interest In Petr Mrazek; Detroit Could Retain Salary
After hearing that there were at least some passing glances out of Edmonton for Detroit Red Wings goaltender Petr Mrazek, Craig Custance of The Athletic reports that there are still teams with “lukewarm” interest in pending RFA goaltender. Bob McKenzie of TSN adds that Detroit could be willing to retain salary in any Mrazek trade, in order to get the best deal.
As we discussed when hearing about the initial interest in Mrazek, his $4MM cap hit is an expensive add for any team, and essentially makes him an unrestricted free agent unless he shows something spectacular down the stretch. The $4.15MM qualifying offer that he’d need to remain under team control doesn’t look like it will be extended, regardless of which team he ends up on.
Custance has been told the likely price is either a third-round pick, or a second if the Red Wings were to retain a full 50% of Mrazek’s salary this season. That seems like a reasonable asset to spend on a goaltender that was once seen as an up-and-comer, but they’d need to see him “showcased” as Custance puts it. Mrazek has just an .888 save percentage this season, and hasn’t won a game for the Red Wings in more than a month.
Still, as we discussed in the linked article above, the goaltending market isn’t overflowing with talent at the moment and Mrazek still does have that intriguing past. In 2015-16 he posted a .921 save percentage in 54 appearances, a number most teams would take for their starter let alone a backup.
Remember that Detroit is right up against the cap, so retaining any salary is a tricky proposition. While moving Mrazek out of town would clear some room, they wouldn’t really be able to take any bodies back unless they made near the league minimum. Remember that they’ll need to pay someone to back up Jimmy Howard, even if that is Jared Coreau‘s $612K cap hit.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Petr Mrazek & The Goaltending Conundrum
In Elliotte Friedman’s latest 31 Thoughts column for Sportsnet, the venerable hockey insider reports that the Edmonton Oilers at one point had some interest in Detroit Red Wings goaltender Petr Mrazek. Friedman writes that Edmonton may have backed off after watching the 25-year old goaltender struggle recently, something that seems to be a common thread all around the league.
Several other teams are looking for goaltending help—Friedman himself mentions Florida and Pittsburgh—but there isn’t a shining option on the market at the moment. Mrazek could have been that star, if the aforementioned struggles hadn’t crept up on him again. Though he was once heralded as the goaltender of the future for Detroit, Mrazek has clashed with the front office in contract negotiations, and been generally outplayed by a resurgent Jimmy Howard over the past two seasons.
This year, Howard has taken the lion’s share of the work in the Detroit net, starting 22 of the team’s 29 games. He’s recorded a .905 save percentage in those games which, while not even league-average, is quite a bit better than his counterpart. Mrazek’s .888 mark is tied for fourth-worst in the league among goaltenders who’ve made at least 10 appearances. Only Maxime Lagace, Laurent Brossoit, Chad Johnson have been worse, while James Reimer clocks in at the same number.
Mrazek is young enough to improve, but his contract status as a pending restricted free agent that is already making $4.15MM is likely off-putting to many teams. A qualifying offer is likely too expensive for any team as a backup, and there is no guarantee he’d accept a lower number on a longer-term deal.
So, where else can you look around the league for goaltending help? Michael Hutchinson has been in the rumor mill lately, as the Winnipeg Jets get Steve Mason back healthy tonight. Unfortunately, Hutchinson injured himself in a minor league game this weekend (though the injury seems minor) and has been underwhelming at best during his NHL career.
Jonathan Bernier was signed by the Colorado Avalanche as potential trade deadline bait, but has been nearly as bad as Mrazek so far this year. His .891 save percentage doesn’t inspire much confidence, as consistency continues to be Bernier’s downfall.
Even a goaltender like Philipp Grubauer, who has been a potential trade target for some time due to a combination of outstanding play and clear role as the backup to Braden Holtby, hasn’t played well enough to trust this season. He, like Scott Darling and Antti Raanta this offseason, was seen as a future starting goaltender in the league just waiting for the right opportunity.
There’s not an easy answer here to the goaltending problems around the league. For teams like Edmonton and Florida, who already find themselves struggling to stay relevant in the playoff race, dealing assets for anything but a sure thing isn’t very appealing.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Decision Must Come On Bertuzzi
- Max Bultman of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that Tyler Bertuzzi‘s stint with the Detroit Red Wings Saturday didn’t go as plan. As the team found itself on special teams for a large chunk of the game, Bertuzzi saw little time on the ice (9:23) as he doesn’t play on either unit. Unfortunately with Luke Witkowski returning from a 10-game suspension and a possible return of David Booth, the team will have to make a decision on whether to return Bertuzzi to the Grand Rapids Griffins or allow him to develop his game in Detroit at the expense of some veterans who are struggling. Considering that many feel he is a player that the rest of the team would want around, the move might suggest what direction the team is trending towards in the near future. Regardless, a move will have to be made within the next day or so.