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Potential Compliance Buyout Candidates: Part I

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As the current Coronavirus crisis wears on, it seems more and more likely that the NHL will not return to action soon and when play resumes, it will almost certainly not be the full remaining regular season schedule. That lost revenue is expected to impact the 2020-21 salary cap, perhaps even keeping the current $81.5MM upper limit in place. Given that teams expected an increase, initially projected to be between $84-88.2MM, this stagnation could have a harsh impact on a number of clubs’ cap situations. As such, many expect that compliance buyouts will return in some form or fashion to ease that pain. These buyouts, which do not count against the salary cap, would allow for teams to open up space that they otherwise expected from a cap increase.

Here is a rundown of the top compliance buyout candidates for the first third of NHL teams:

Anaheim Ducks: Adam Henrique

– The first team on the list is a tough call. Henrique has had a good season and the Ducks are not in significant cap trouble. However, with a long list of promising forward prospects and a defense that needs work, the team could opt to move on from the veteran forward and to create roster space and cap flexibility. Henrique, 30, is signed for four more years at $5.825MM.

Arizona Coyotes: Phil Kessel

– The Coyotes are in one of the worst positions in the league in terms of cap space, so the team would have to use a compliance buyout if the opportunity is offered to them. Kessel has been a relative bust in his first season with the ‘Yotes and is signed for two more years at $6.8MM. He has the potential to improve in year two, but Arizona may not have the luxury of taking the chance. The added cap space would be a major relief for the team.

Boston Bruins: John Moore

– Given the Bruins’ depth on defense in both veteran assets and budding prospects as well as Moore’s relegation to a backup role on the Boston blue line, he has become an expendable asset, especially if both Zdeno Chara and Torey Krug are back next season. Moore is signed longer than any current Bruins defenseman with three years and $8.25MM remaining, but the team’s commitment to him seems less than any of his fellow blue liners.

Buffalo Sabres: Kyle Okposo

– Unfortunately for the Sabres, the Okposo signing in 2016 has never panned out. His production dropped from 64 points with the New York Islanders in 2015-16 to just 45 points in his first year in Buffalo and that total has gone down in every year since. Okposo was on pace for just 24 points this year and may not even reach that mark. The Sabres would be quick to part ways with Okposo, who has three years at $6MM annually left on his contract, taking up valuable cap space that the team needs to use to improve the rest of their roster.

Calgary Flames: Milan Lucic

– Even with the salary being retained by the Edmonton Oilers on Lucic’s contract, his $5.25MM cap hit is still a pain for the Flames. The veteran power forward is not going to score 20+ goals or 50+ points in a season ever again and Calgary could do more with the added cap space over the next three years.

Carolina Hurricanes: Jake Gardiner

– For whatever reason, the Gardiner signing simply has not worked out as the Hurricanes had hoped. Gardiner, who was signed late last summer at a relative discount, has been a fine addition, but hasn’t been the point producer and power play ace that Carolina had hoped for. Following the deadline addition of Brady Skjei to arguably the deepest blue line in the NHL already, Gardiner and his remaining three years and $12.15MM are expendable.

Chicago Blackhawks: Brent Seabrook

– One of the more obvious choices on this list, Seabrook’s contract may the worst in the NHL right now. The 34-year-old has four years left at $6.875MM AAV on an eight-year, $55MM deal signed back in 2015. Over the term of the contract, Seabrook has declined rapidly and is a shell of his former self, regardless of health. The cap-strapped Blackhawks would not think twice about moving on.

Colorado Avalanche: Erik Johnson

– Johnson is a well-liked and well-respected long-time member of the Avalanche. However, as time has gone on the team has surrounded him with better, younger, and more affordable blue line options. As valuable as Johnson’s experience and leadership may be, he is an expendable piece without a clear future role. Signed through 2022-23 at a $6MM cap hit, Johnson is an expensive piece to keep around just for the intangibles and the Avs could look to use this opportunity to clear some space for some anticipated big game hunting this off-season.

Columbus Blue Jackets: Alexander Wennberg

– Blue Jackets fans have been calling for Wennberg’s head for years now and may finally get their wish. The once-promising young forward turned a 59-point 2016-17 season into a six-year, $29.4MM contract and then proceeded to regress immensely over the past few seasons instead of continuing to improve as expected. With another three years left at $4.9MM per, Wennberg doesn’t seem likely to get back to a level of play that would warrant his current cap hit and Columbus could move on, even from a 25-year-old homegrown product.

Dallas Stars: Andrew Cogliano

– The Stars are a team with numerous big names and long contracts, but their most inefficient name might just be Cogliano. Rather than using a buyout to move a heavy cap hit, Dallas could opt to trim the fat by removing a player that hasn’t been a good fit. Cogliano has showed that his six points in 32 games last season with the Stars following a trade from Anaheim was not a fluke; he followed it up with 14 points through 68 games this year. Expecting Cogliano to get back to 30+ point form in 2020-21 in his final year at $3.25MM seems hopeful at best and Dallas could use that space elsewhere with some lineup holes to fill this summer.

Stay tuned for Part II coming soon.

Snapshots: Palve, Nakladal, Christensen

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The venture into North American hockey appears as if it will be short-lived for veteran Finnish forward Oula Palve. Palve initially signed a one-year deal with the Pittsburgh Penguins this summer, finally making the jump after a career year in the Liiga. However, he never made it to Pittsburgh, recording a paltry eight points through 37 games with AHL Wilkes-Barre/Scranton. The Penguins opted to move him to the Dallas Stars in January for defenseman John Nyberg, after which he recorded just five points through 23 games with AHL Texas. Palve’s time in the minors has indicated that it is unlikely he will make it to the NHL, so the speculation is now that he will return to Europe. Only this time, he is set to sign in the Swedish Hockey League, reports national news source Expressen Sport. Palve is expected to be a hot recruit for SHL teams, with Rogle and Farjestad expected to be the top suitors. At 28, Palve’s first season in North America is likely to be his last, especially if he signs a long-term deal in Sweden.

  • Former NHL defenseman Jakub Nakladal is making a career change. Nakladal, 32, spent parts of two seasons in the NHL with the Calgary Flames and Carolina Hurricanes and was considered by some to be underappreciated in his time. Nakladal joined the KHL’s Lokomotiv Yaroslavl midway through the 2016-17 campaign and has been one of their top defensemen ever since. He also shined at the 2018 Olympic Games with the Czech Republic. Despite this success, Nakladal has decided to return home to continue his playing career. Lokomotiv issued a press release thanking the free agent while acknowledging that he has decided to return to the Czech Extraliga, where he last played in 2011-12. There is no indication yet exactly where Nakladal might be headed, but the safe bet is that he will return to HC Pardubice, the organization he grew up in.
  • Over the past few years, American International College has emerged as the star of Atlantic Hockey, which is otherwise the weakest conference in the NCAA. Their leader through this climb has been forward Blake Christensen, who has been nothing if not consistent with 20+ points in each of his four years. Last season, Christensen was a Hobey Baker candidate with 47 points in 41 games. Now that his college career is over, Christensen will look to prove that he can continue to produce in the pros despite what some may think about his Atlantic competition over the past four years. The AHL’s Bakersfield Condors will give him that chance, announcing a one-year deal for the undersized but skilled winger. Christensen could be an intriguing player to watch next season in the minors.

Stretch Run Storylines: Dallas Stars

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As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks.  Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run.  Over the coming weeks, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team.  We continue our look at the Central Division with Dallas.

The Stars have had a bit of a tumultuous season but nevertheless find themselves in a top-three seed in the Central Division.  An early season coaching change shocked many while a lack of production from their top players has been more than a little perplexing.  Those themes have been prevalent throughout the season and will continue to be key storylines down the stretch and into the postseason.

Offensive Struggles

On paper, a core of Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn, Joe Pavelski, and Alexander Radulov looks pretty strong.  Seguin had six straight seasons of at least 72 points under his belt, Benn had reached 69 or more in five of the last six years, Radulov had two straight seasons of 72 in first two years with the team, and Pavelski came into the year with six straight campaigns of 64 points or more.  Yes, it’s an aging group so a slight decline would have been understandable.  But this hasn’t been a slight decline.

As things stand, none of them have reached the 20-goal mark.  Only Seguin has reached the 40-point mark, checking at 50.  Benn and Radulov have a shot at 40 points if the remaining scheduled games are played out while Pavelski getting there would be a longshot.

Not surprisingly, the Stars check in at 29th overall in goals scored.  They are the only team outside of the top-20 in that department to be holding down a playoff spot.  They can’t afford to rely on Denis Gurianov to continue to lead the team in goals if they want to be a postseason contender.  For context, he’s their only 20-goal player (20 on the dot) and spent a bit of time in October in the minors after seeing minimal ice time early on.

Some teams need an uptick in scoring from their primary players.  Some need a secondary scoring boost.  Dallas needs all of that and then some.  If Seguin, Benn, Radulov, and Pavelski can get back to the level they were at even a year ago (and this break could certainly help with that), it would go a long way towards fixing their scoring woes and making them a much bigger playoff threat in the process.

Interim Or Permanent?

It was a big surprise when Rick Bowness was asked to take over for Jim Montgomery behind the bench after the latter was dismissed for cause back in December.  At the time of the move, it was expected that the interim tag would be in place for the rest of the regular season and they would re-assess at that time.

So how has he fared?  Clearly, the offense is sputtering but at the same time, they have been the top defensive team in the Western Conference in terms of goals allowed which has allowed them to stay in a playoff spot for most of the year.  Basically, not a whole lot has changed from the transition from Montgomery to Bowness as the veterans were scuffling offensively at the start of the year while Ben Bishop and Anton Khudobin have provided strong goaltending.

Is basically keeping the team afloat enough to justify the permanent job?  Considering the odd circumstances in which he took over, accomplishing that is notable.  However, it certainly feels like how they fare down the stretch and postseason (if those games get played) will ultimately determine whether or not GM Jim Nill sticks with him or goes after another bench boss in the offseason.

Early Extension For Heiskanen?

Last year was a good one for defenseman Miro Heiskanen who finished just shy of being a Calder Trophy finalist.  After putting up 33 points, he seemed like a prime candidate for a big jump in production which would have him in line for a big raise when he became eligible for an early extension in July.  Of course, the big jump in production hasn’t happened (putting him in line with just about everyone else on the team) although he has collected 35 points which is good enough to put him third on the team in scoring.

Even so, the small uptick offensively will call into question whether or not an extension is the right way to go as it’s possible that Heiskanen could be leaving money on the table without a 40-point season under his belt.  If regular season games resume and he picks up some points or is productive in the playoffs, he might be able to boost his value enough to make an early extension justifiable.  If not, waiting may be the better option so whether or not the NHL returns may be particularly important for him.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Jerad Rosburg Signs With Dallas Stars

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The Dallas Stars have dipped into the college free agent market, signing Jerad Rosburg to a one-year entry-level contract. The deal will kick in next season and Rosburg will join the Texas Stars of the AHL on an amateur tryout.

A four-year constant at Michigan State University, the 23-year old defenseman played 141 games for the Spartans and scored 55 points. A former USHL player, he failed to get picked by anyone in the NHL draft. That professional interest has obviously changed, with the Stars signing him just two days after his senior season ended.

The 6’1″ left-handed shot joins an organization that already has plenty of depth on defense, but at least some of it will be departing at the end of the year. Both Gavin Bayreuther and Dillon Heatherington are scheduled for Group VI unrestricted free agency, while Roman Polak and Andrej Sekera are both on expiring deals in the NHL. There is obviously no clear path for Rosburg to the NHL right away, but he’ll certainly provide some more experience to what could be a very young minor league blue line next season.

West Notes: Lindholm, Garland, Josi, Boeser, Toffoli

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While the Anaheim Ducks blueline seems to be getting healthier with the pending returns of Josh Manson, Erik Gudbranson and Cam Fowler soon, the team didn’t get a positive update for the return of Hampus Lindholm. The defenseman, who is second on the team in ice time, has no timetable for a return yet and with just 14 games remaining, it’s legitimately possible that he could miss the rest of the season, according to The Athletic’s Eric Stephens (subscription required).

Lindholm has missed the last five games after falling awkwardly into the boards while battling for the puck with Edmonton’s Leon Draisaitl. The upper-body injury is part of the problem, although Stephens added that a back issue is also part of the issue. The 26-year-old has two goals and 22 points through 55 games with 71 blocks, while averaging 23:04 of ATOI.

Regardless, the team expects Manson (upper-body injury) to potentially return as early as today, while Gudbranson (upper-body injury) and Fowler (lower-body injury) are both a week or two behind him.

  • The Arizona Coyotes announced that forward Conor Garland will be out “week-to-week” after suffering a lower-body injury Friday against Calgary. The injury occurred when Garland collided with Flames’ goaltender Cam Talbot. It’s a tough blow for Arizona as Garland leads the team in goals scored with 22.
  • The NHL Department of Player Safety announced that Nashville Predators defenseman Roman Josi has been fined $5,000, the maximum allowable under the CBA, for cross-checking Dallas Stars forward Corey Perry. The incident happened at 15:13 of the second periond (video here) in which Josi cross checked Perry in the head after the play was over. Josi received a two-minute minor, although many have suggested that he should have received a five-minute major instead. Perry was a constant target in Saturday’s game after he received a five-game suspension during the Winter Classic after knocking Ryan Ellis out with a dirty hit. Ellis missed 20 games with a concussion.
  • The Vancouver Canucks look to be getting back forward Brock Boeser soon. The 23-year-old forward, who has been out since Feb. 8 with a rib injury, and while he is not expected to play today, Boeser feels that he “is close” to returning, likely later this week, according to Postmedia’s Ben Kuzma. He participated in a game-day skate with the team in full-contact gear. Boeser has 16 goals and 45 points in 56 games and should immediately upgrade the team’s top-six.
  • Sticking with the Canucks, Sportsnet’s Iain MacIntyre writes that Vancouver is unlikely to be able to retain the services of Tyler Toffoli after this season. The forward was acquired from Los Angeles at the trade deadline for Tim Schaller, prospect Tyler Madden a second-round pick and a conditional fourth-round pick based on whether the Canucks could sign him to an extension. Already dealing with cap issues, Vancouver still has to give out new contracts to goaltender Jacob Markstrom and defenseman Chris Tanev. Toffoli, who is currently making $4.6MM, might be too expensive to hold onto, although there is always the possiblity that the team moves out some contracts to make it happen. Toffoli has five goals and eight points in eight games since arriving in Vancouver.

Central Notes: Pietrangelo, Lowry, Radulov, Boqvist

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The St. Louis Blues got some good news last week when they learned from NHL commissioner Gary Bettman when he announced that the 2020-21 salary cap is expected to rise between $84MM and $88.2MM. With the current salary cap set at $81.5MM this season, that would give the Blues franchise a significant amount of cap space that it could use to re-sign defenseman Alex Pietrangelo, who is currently slated to become a unrestricted free agent this summer.

In his latest mailbag, The Athletic’s Jeremy Rutherford (subscription required) writes that while those numbers sound promising, the NHL was projected to have a salary cap set at $83MM for the 2019-20 season and it ended up being $81.5MM, which suggests that all teams shouldn’t expect a significant increase. However, as far as Pietrangelo is concerned, the scribe believes that St. Louis has no intention of paying out any more than $9.5MM AAV, and the team would prefer a number closer to $8.5MM regardless of the increase in salary cap. The team believes that if other teams are willing to go to $10MM per season, the Blues will not match that.

Rutherford adds that if that’s the case and Pietrangelo opts to sign elsewhere, the team is unlikely to make any significant additions as there aren’t many significant free-agent defenseman this summer. That means the Blues would then hand the reins to Colton Parayko as the defensive leader next season.

  • The Athletic’s Ken Wiebe reports that Winnipeg Jets forward Adam Lowry is likely to return to the lineup Monday for their game against Arizona. Lowry has been out since Jan. 19 with an upper-body injury and should be able to give the Jets a much-needed boost. The 26-year-old has four goals and 10 points in 47 games with 132 hits.
  • The Dallas Stars were without Alexander Radulov Saturday due to illness, while forward Justin Dowling was able to re-enter the lineup since late January. Dowling immediately moved onto the top line next to Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin. However, with the team desperate to put up some offense after being held to one goal in the past three games, The Athletic’s Sean Shapiro (subscription required) writes that if Radulov has to miss extended time, the Stars should consider in recalling forward Jason Robertson. The 20-year-old prospect has 25 goals in his rookie campaign with the Texas Stars and has appeared in three NHL games already.
  • NBC Sports’ Charlie Roumeliotis reports that after missing Friday’s game with a wrist injury on Saturday, Chicago Blackhawks defenseman Adam Boqvist is expected to enter the Blackhawks lineup today against the St. Louis Blues. He fills a gap with rookie Lucas Carlsson out with a concussion.

Minor Transactions: 03/04/20

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Just four games are on the NHL schedule this evening, though the earliest game is one to tune in for. The Philadelphia Flyers will travel and take on the Washington Capitals in a battle of the top two teams in the Metropolitan. The Flyers, on a six-game winning streak, have climbed to within three points of the division lead and look unstoppable of late. As they and the rest of the league prepare for tonight’s action, we’ll keep track of all the minor moves.

  • After last night’s game, the San Jose Sharks sent Nick DeSimone back to the minor leagues. Today however they’ve recalled him again, continuing his season of bouncing up and down between leagues.
  • The Vegas Golden Knights have recalled both Nicolas Roy and Brandon Pirri, giving them two more forward options for their game on Friday night.
  • After being recalled by the Dallas Stars to fill in for an injured Ben Bishop, Jake Oettinger has been returned to the minor leagues. The top goalie prospect will get his chance one day in the NHL but that time is not just yet.
  • With Tomas Tatar’s injury last night, the Montreal Canadiens have recalled Lukas Vejdemo from the minor leagues. The young forward will join the team on the road and is available for Thursday night.

Minor Transactions: 02/03/20

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Ten games grace the NHL schedule this evening, including a couple of potential playoff previews. The Boston Bruins and Tampa Bay Lightning will battle once again as they look to represent the Atlantic Division, while the Edmonton Oilers and Dallas Stars face off in a war of two teams that believe they’re contenders in the west. With just a month left, every game is important for those with Stanley Cup aspirations. As always, we’ll keep track of all the minor moves right here.

  • The Detroit Red Wings have sent Dennis Cholowski back to the minor leagues, after he played just 12 minutes last night. The 21-year old could be back up by the end of the week, as the Red Wings don’t play again until Friday evening. The Grand Rapids Griffins meanwhile play in San Antonio tonight.
  • Jake Oettinger has been recalled by the Dallas Stars under emergency conditions with Ben Bishop dealing with a minor injury. The 21-year old netminder has never previously been recalled, and has played the entire season in the minor leagues posting a 12-16-4 record with a .912 save percentage.
  • Anthony Angello has been recalled by the Pittsburgh Penguins under emergency conditions, giving them another body for their game against the Ottawa Senators. The 23-year old has played seven NHL games this season.
  • The Vancouver Canucks have recalled Guillaume Brisebois and Jalen Chatfield under emergency conditions, while assigning Justin Bailey to the minor leagues. The Canucks are back home tomorrow to welcome in the Arizona Coyotes for the first of a five-game home stand.
  • Chris Driedger is back with the Florida Panthers after his recent conditioning stint in the minor leagues. The 25-year old goaltender has actually been outstanding in his limited NHL appearances, posting a .932 save percentage on the year.

Overseas Notes: Coronavirus, World Championships, Sticks, Jokipakka

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As the coronavirus crisis continues to creep into every corner of day-to-day life, it was only a matter of time before it started to have a major impact on hockey. IIHF President Rene Fasel has revealed to the Swiss media that the threat of coronavirus is being taken seriously as it pertains to upcoming international tournaments. Fasel states that the IIHF’s medical commission is currently meeting to discuss the potential cancellations of any international events in March and April. This would include the U-18 World Junior Championships, scheduled to be held in Michigan in April. Should the sickness persist, the IIHF will also have to consider cancelling the 2020 World Championships, slated to take place in Switzerland in May. Fasel gives March 15th as the date when these difficult decisions will begin to have to be made. This appears to be a decision based wholly on health risks, as the tournaments are insured against cancellation and neither the IIHF nor the hosts would be facing financial loss. With that said, Fasel also ruled out the possibility that tournaments could still be held but just closed to the public. With no end to the coronavirus outbreak in sight, it appears more likely than not that the U-18’s and World Championships this year could be the next victims of the disease.

  • Of course, this is not the first link between coronavirus and hockey, as the mass shutdown of the Chinese economy has greatly limited the supply of sticks to the NHL and other levels of the game. Both Bauer and CCM have their primary factories in the country most greatly affected by this outbreak and neither have been in operation for weeks, while shipping to North America has also been halted. Players across the league have begun to stock up on sticks as they face the possibility of a coming shortage. NHL players, who often order custom sticks in small batches, may have to work with what they have through the rest of the season and possibly into the postseason.
  • In non-pandemic news, former NHLer Jyrki Jokipakka has benefited greatly from a move to Europe. Now with his second team in his third season since leaving North America, Jokipakka was the undisputed top defender for the KHL’s Sibir Novosibirk this season, leading the team in time on ice and finishing near the top in assists, points, and blocked shots. He also finished among the top-ten producers on defense league-wide. While Sibir has not yet begun their Gagarin Cup playoff campaign, Jokipakka is already the bright spot of the season for the team. The club opted to reward him for his success with a new two-year extension. Jokipakka flashed ability in the NHL, but never able to put it all together in stops with the Dallas Stars, Calgary Flames, and Ottawa Senators. So, while the 28-year-old could have waited to see if there was NHL interest this off-season, it seems like he has made the right choice to stick with where he has finally found consistent success and is valued as a top contributor.

West Notes: Hughes, Stone, Johns, Neal

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The Calder Trophy race continues to get tighter. The NHL announced its Rookie of the Month for February with Vancouver Canucks defenseman Quinn Hughes picking up the hardware. He joins Victor Olofsson (October/December), Cale Makar (November) and Dominik Kubalik (January), all legitimate candidates for the Calder Trophy, as recipients of the award.

The defenseman led all rookies in points with 15 points in 13 games and was tied for the most assists in the NHL with 13. He also had a multi-goal game against the New York Islanders on Feb. 1. Hughes beat out several key rookies for the award, including New Jersey’s MacKenzie Blackwood, New York Rangers’ Igor Shesterkin, Chicago’s Kubalik, Dallas’ Denis Gurianov, Montreal’s Nick Suzuki and Colorado’s Makar. Hughes currently has the points lead among rookies with eight goals and 51 points.

  • The Vegas Golden Knights got some disappointing news as forward Mark Stone is considered week-to-week with a lower-body injury, according to David Schoen of the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Head coach Peter DeBoer said that surgery isn’t necessary for the 27-year-old and the team does expect him to return before the end of the regular season. Stone, who recently has been centering Jonathan Marchessault and Reilly Smith on the first line will now be replaced by veteran Paul Stastny. Stone isn’t having as good a season last year when he had 33 goals and 73 points, but is still having a strong season with 21 goals and has tied his career-high 42 assists.
  • Dallas Morning News’ Matthew DeFranks writes that Dallas Stars defenseman Stephen Johns was forced to sit out his third straight game Saturday due to an upper-body injury. While the nature of the injury is unknown, Stars interim head coach Rick Bowness said that it is not related to the post-traumatic headaches that Johns had been suffering from for more than 22 months. Bowness added that he believes that Johns will return to the lineup Tuesday as he has been skating and practicing with the team. “If this was a do or die game, he probably would play,” Bowness said. “But with the travel that we’ve had this month and the schedule that’s coming up, we figured just give him an extra couple days. It’s not going to hurt him.” Johns has re-established himself as a top player since returning in January. The 27-year-old has two goals, five points, 35 hits and 17 blocks in just 13 games.
  • The Edmonton Journal’s Jim Matheson reports that the Edmonton Oilers are expecting forward James Neal to join the team on their upcoming three-game road trip and could return to the lineup at some point during that trip. Neal has been out since Jan. 29 with a sprained ankle. He has 19 goals and 29 points in 50 games this season for the Oilers.

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